Hopefully everyone enjoyed it because it will be quite a while before another Met is honored in Cooperstown. This year’s ballot and numerous others down the road are devoid of obvious candidates from the franchise. The gap extends beyond players who enter the Hall of Fame in a Mets hat, too. There are essentially zero likely upcoming Hall of Famers who played even one game for the Mets.

The period between Seaver’s induction in ’92 and Piazza’s last year actually saw a good portion of former Mets elected to the Hall of Fame who simply did not don the cap:

These Hall of Famers range from beloved by Mets fans (Carter) to reviled (Alomar), but they’re all Hall of Famers regardless. There is no one like them who figures to be remotely close to election over the next decade.

2017: Jeff Kent, Billy Wagner, Gary Sheffield

The 2017 ballot had three holdovers who were modest candidates, but do not currently stand anywhere close to inevitable Hall of Fame induction. Kent is the leading home run hitter among second basemen in big-league history and spent most of the first few seasons of his career with the Mets from 1992 through 1996 until he was dealt for Carlos Baerga. In four years on the ballots though, he has never topped the mere 17 percent mark.

Wagner was a top-flight reliever who signed a four-year, $43 million deal with the Mets prior to the 2006 season, and he is probably the most popular Met in this group. He did have some awesome years closing for the Mets until falling victim to Tommy John surgery late in the ’08 campaign. His Cooperstown case is fascinating in comparison to the much more acclaimed Trevor Hoffman, since his rate stats are much better and he chose to retire early rather than being forced out by ineffectiveness like Hoffman. Unfortunately, most BBWAA writers don’t see it that way—he only received 10.5% of the vote in 2016 and 10.2% in 2017.

( * – Editor’s Note: Here’s another, less comprehensive breakdown of Wagner’s HoF case.)

Sheffield’s connection to the Mets is the loosest of the three, but the slugger did spend the last season of his 22-year career in Queens, smashing dinger number 500 in the fourth-ever game at Citi Field. If there weren’t any PED connections to Sheffield, he would probably be doing a lot better given the 509 career homers and .292/.393/.514 triple slash. He has absolutely been penalized and has never even approached Kent’s low voting levels during his three years on the ballot.

2018: Johan Santana

There is no getting around the fact that it’s depressing that Santana is almost Hall of Fame-eligible already at the mere age of 37. He is still attempting to come back and pitch in the majors for the first time since 2012; all power to him! The odds are that he will indeed hit the Hall of Fame ballot next year, and he is the Mets’ only legitimate candidate aside from the carryovers.

The problem is that Santana just didn’t last long enough to receive serious Hall of Fame consideration, though as expert Jay Jaffe has argued, he has an intriguing case based on peak. After all, he won two Cy Young Awards, contended for three others (including 2008 with the Mets), and finished with a better career ERA (3.20, 74 ERA-) than southpaw luminaries Steve Carlton and Randy Johnson.

Jaffe did ultimately decide that it wasn’t an overly strong case, particularly with superior starters like Curt Schilling and Mike Mussina already struggling for induction. Maybe a Veterans Committee To Be Named Later will look at Santana more favorably, but either way, it’s going to take some time.

2019: David Cone, Bret Saberhagen

Unless you’re a devoted member of the Jason Bay family, there are zero new Met names of note ahead on the 2019 BBWAA ballot. So the “best new chance” turns to the Veterans Committee, which according to the Adam Darowski will have their “Today’s Game” committee meet in December 2018.

The top Mets there will be Cone and Saberhagen, two pitchers who saw their greatest fame outside Queens with championship teams in the Bronx and Kansas City, respectively. Both went one-and-done on their initial Hall of Fame efforts in the late-2000s, but Jaffe recently outlined how they both deserved a better fate since advanced metrics really like them. It’s hard to envision a Veterans Committee truly appreciating them though since they have elected precisely zero living players since Bill Mazeroski in 2001. Alas.

2020-21: [tumbleweed]

The Veterans Committee is primarily reviewing players during these two election cycles who predate the Mets’ entire existence, and the best new Mets-related candidate on either is Bobby Abreu, who despite an interesting comp to Vladimir Guerrero, will not come close to induction. So…

It’s going to be a long, long time before another Met has a serious immediate shot Cooperstown. ESPN’s David Schoenfeld predicted that the next one to be enshrined will be Carlos Beltran in 2029, and that’s not a bad guess at all. His career is ending soon, and while he’s a better candidate than everyone else mentioned so far (and David Wright), it will likely take him a few years to climb the BBWAA voting ladder. He should get there eventually though.

The unfortunate reality is that Beltran will probably be the first Met of any kind elected since Piazza. Until then, Met fans will have to settle for Chipper Jones pointing at his son Shea in the crowd next year, I guess. Bleak.

Let the long wait begin.

Photo Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports

I took the data from all 163 of the Mets’ games, put it into the Mearntron Personal Opinion Machine, and produced this 100 percent accurate ranking of the best Mets games–not necessarily moments–from 2016. The science was foolproof, so trust it.

Honorable Mentions

April 5: Thor’s thesis statement

May 7: Bartolo dong

June 21: Bullpen picks up Bart against KC

June 25: Kelly Johnson haunts the Braves, 1-0 in 11

August 29: Yo goes yard to beat the Fish

April 29: Offense explodes in record 12-run inning

In the 54-year history of the Mets, there had never been an inning quite like the bottom of the third on April 29 against the Giants. The 10-run frame in 2000 finished off by Mike Piazza’s blast remained the pinnacle of scoring.

It all started innocently enough, as it was a scoreless game, and Jake Peavy had issued back-to-back walks. That obviously was not good, but it hardly portended an enormous inning. Michael Conforto doubled home the first run. Then Yoenis Cespedes brought the two runners home with a single up the middle. Lucas Duda walked, and on a 1-2 count, Neil Walker lifted an RBI double down the right field line to make it 4-0.

Now it was ugly, so Bruce Bochy called on Mike Broadway to make what would unsurprisingly be his last MLB appearance of the season. Asdrubal Cabrera greeted him by roping his second pitch into the left-center field gap for a two-run double. It briefly calmed down when Kevin Plawecki merely walked and Steven Matz struck out on a bunt attempt. Then it turned to chaos again with three straight singles and finally a grand slam by Cespedes to set the franchise record. Like the previous record with Piazza, it was fitting that the Mets’ biggest star capped the inning.

12 runs. One out. Broadway was dark that night—a little bit weaker than he used to be.

(Box score)

4. September 17: The Curtis Granderson Show

It should not be a secret that I love Curtis Granderson. He is just a productive, kind, level-headed dude (outside of moon landing theories) who has very quietly produced a near-300 homer, 41 WARP career in essentially 12 seasons. The four-year, $60 million contract he signed prior to 2014 did seem a bit higher than expected at the time despite the back-to-back 40-homer seasons in pinstripes, but it’s hard to say that he hasn’t been worth it.

When Granderson was a Yankee, he watched in the 2012 ALDS as, down to their final outs in Game 3, Raul Ibanez tied the game with a solo shot and then walked it off with another dinger in the bottom of the 11th. Four years later, Granderson pulled off another Ibanez act.

The Mets held a Wild Card spot at the time, but they were still in a tight race with the Giants and Cardinals. They had a cushy schedule and needed to take advantage of every opportunity. September 17 offered that, as they faced the worst team in baseball, the Twins. Inexplicably, Minnesota’s pitching shut them down through seven, and they needed an RBI single by Cespedes in the eighth to simply force extra innings.

Then in the 11th, the Twins took the lead on a solo homer by surging rookie Byron Buxton off Hansel Robles. Leading off the home half, Granderson answered it against closer Brandon Kintzler with one of his own, knotting the game again at 2-2. One inning later, Granderson had another opportunity, this time with southpaw Ryan O’Rourke fresh in the game to face him with two outs. It didn’t matter. Granderson took him deep down the right field line for the walk-off winner. Without him that night, the Mets would have had another loss.

(Box score) (Clip)

3. July 17: Jacob deGrom’s one-hit masterpiece

There is not too much to say about this game, even though it ranks third here. Jacob deGrom was just phenomenal. The Phillies had no chance.

In the bottom of the third, opposing pitcher Zach Eflin singled just past deGrom’s reaching attempt to his side. In the top of the eighth, Ryan Howard worked a walk. Both outcomes were unlikely, but so it goes. Regardless, those were the only two baserunners to reach against deGrom on this absurdly good night.

deGrom dazzled with his two-seamer and changeup, striking out seven and inducing 11 ground balls. When he fanned Odubel Herrera to end it, it marked his first career complete game and shutout, and the Mets’ first since R.A. Dickey in June 2012. It’s just a shame that deGrom was unable to finish his season due to injury.

(Box score) (Clip)

2. September 13: The hero is … T.J. Rivera?

At the end of the MLB Draft in 2011, Troy University’s T.J. Rivera did not have a team. Over 1,500 players were selected in the 50 rounds of drafting beforehand, ranging from Travious Relaford to Kash Kalkowski. Yet nobody wanted the rights to Rivera. He had a connection though, as former coach Mackey Sasser recommended Rivera to a Mets scout, saying he was worth a flier. So they signed him as an undrafted free agent.

Five years later, this low-risk signing improbably paid off, as Walker’s injury opened the door for the 27-year-old Rivera, who worked his way through the system and finally made his MLB debut in August. He played on and off for about a month until getting the start in a crucial game against the NL East-leading Nationals on September 13.

It was shaping up to be an agonizing night for the Mets faithful, as a brilliant 10-strikeout outing over seven innings by Syndergaard was wasted when Jeurys Familia coughed up the 3-1 lead in the bottom of the ninth. An error by Jose Reyes at third base and a flurry of singles led to two runs, and with Anthony Rendon in scoring position and none out, it took everything Familia had to work through Ryan Zimmerman and Clint Robinson. He got a lineout from Zimmerman and then a line drive double play off the bat of Robinson.

Having survived the close call, the Mets came to bat again in the 10th. In came Nationals closer Mark Melancon, a smart trade deadline acquisition who vastly improved the back of the bullpen from the likes of Jonathan Papelbon. This was not someone who typically faltered. With one out, Rivera was down 0-2. After pumping two fastballs in, Melancon tried a cutter, but it dipped over the heart of the plate. Rivera destroyed it for his first career homer.

The Nationals Park fans were stunned. The inning ended shortly thereafter, but Fernando Salas and Jerry Blevins combined to shut Washington down in the home half of the 10th. A Daniel Murphy strikeout iced it, and the Mets won 4-3. T.J. Rivera, man.

(Box score) (Clip)

1. September 22: Asdrubal Cabrera to the rescue

This is indisputable. September 22, 2016 will go down as one of the best Mets games of all time.

Once again, this was the heat of the Wild Card chase with the pressure on to win just about every game. It was another good matchup for the Mets, as the Phillies weren’t exactly intimidating.

Unfortunately, this was still a back-and-forth affair. Granderson crushed an Adam Morgan pitch for a two-run homer in the second. The Phillies got a run back, and then Ryan Howard and Cameron Rupp went back-to-back off Seth Lugo. Cespedes tied it back up with an RBI single, and two innings later, gave the Mets a 4-3 lead in the seventh with an RBI double.

Terry Collins felt comfortable handing that advantage to setup man Addison Reed. Two runners reached on infield grounders though, and Maikel Franco unloaded on a full count pitch to right-center field, a three-run bomb to put the Phillies up, 6-4. It seemed bleak until the struggling Jeanmar Gomez faced Reyes with two outs to go in the ninth. A two-run bomb tied it up once more!

Familia threw a perfect 10th and tried to get through a second inning unscathed to no avail. An RBI single and then a bases-loaded walk off Jim Henderson put the Phillies back in front by two, sapping the energy at Citi Field. On the bright side, the Phillies’ 2016 nature kicked in, as they had no one else to turn to in the bullpen to close it out except for rookie Edubray Ramos—a decent arm, but no Ken Giles.

With one out, Conforto pinch-hit for Henderson and walked on four pitches. Reyes followed with a smash to left just out of the reach of shortstop Freddy Galvis. That set the stage for Cabrera. On a 1-0 pitch, Cabrera demolished Ramos’ pitch for a three-run homer, chucked the bat in joy, and threw his hands in the air. It was an iconic image, one for the ages.

(Box score) (Clip)

Photo Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports

Nevertheless, the Mets’ absence in the playoffs now creates a void for those who wanted to see more Mets baseball in October. There will still be baseball, but now fans will have to find other teams to support in the meantime. With the field now narrowed down to six (sorry, Carlos Beltran), what should be the preferred rooting order?

6. Los Angeles Dodgers

Former Mets: Justin Turner

No, absolutely not. They have Chase Utley, not to mention a couple other former Phillies who gave fans headaches. It would be hard for a team that isn’t in the NL East to take the bottom spot on this list, but that’s the power of Utley. Not even Turner’s glorious red locks can come close to making up for that. There’s also the fact that their World Series title drought is roughly as long as the Mets’ and they simply can’t be allowed to snap it before the Mets snap theirs.

5. Washington Nationals

Former Mets: Daniel Murphy, Oliver Perez

It was disappointing enough that the Mets couldn’t surge ahead of the Nats late this year as they did in late 2015, but that’s the wisdom of gradually dropping Matt Williams, Drew Storen, and Jonathan Papelbon from the organization. There is no sense in cheering for the primary division rival. It’s not quite to the crazy level of a Cardinals fan pulling for the Cubs or a Yankees fan hoping the Red Sox can survive, but the point still stands. Sorry, Murph.

4. San Francisco Giants

Former Mets: Angel Pagan

The team that knocked the Mets out only ranking third-worst here is a testament to the grim reality of the field. However, #EvenYearBullshit can be only be tolerated so much, particularly since Bumgarner almost single-handedly eliminated the Mets, save for a three-run blast from a classic “who?” Giants hero, Conor Gillaspie. They’ve won enough. It’s time for someone else.

Knowing the Giants, there is a very low chance that this season doesn’t end with Eduardo Nunez proudly holding the World Series MVP.

3. Chicago Cubs

Former Mets: None

The Cubs are the last NL team to be mentioned, but only because the idea of a championship for them is not as bad as it would be for the other three clubs. Like the since-eliminated Red Sox, they do have that awesome young core, and it’s not like they caused any problems for the Mets last year en route to their NL pennant. So as fun as it would be to see that championship drought continue, they’re palatable enough to make them the best NL option, despite Joe Maddon’s cutesy quirks.

2. Toronto Blue Jays

Former Mets: Ezequiel Carrera (minors), Jose Bautista (lol)

When this offense is rolling (as they did in the ALDS), it’s a lot of fun to watch, as the Blue Jays have tons of dinger threats. It’s kind of unbelievable that they had to settle for a Wild Card. It is incredibly difficult to find relief in this lineup, as Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, and Jose Bautista provide formidable threats right in the heart of it, and both Russell Martin and Troy Tulowitzki had 20 homers this year, as well. The fan base has had its ugly moments, and Donaldson has been a bit hyper-sensitive about remotely close pitches. They still aren’t a bad option, especially for those unenthused by the NL crop.

1. Cleveland Indians

Former Mets: None

Numbers one and two can be easily flip-flopped. The Indians’ whole brand is pretty gross, from the name to Chief Wahoo to fan behavior. If the team was named anything else, this would be a no-doubter. Pretend they’re called the Fightin’ Franconas.

The Fightin’ Franconas just have a tremendously entertaining team, with terrific defense from the likes of Francisco Lindor and an underrated offense led by Carlos Santana, Mike Napoli, and up-and-comers Tyler Naquin and Jose Ramirez. The pitching would be even more tremendous if they were at full strength, but watching Corey Kluber robotically mow through lineups is all the fun of Bumgarner without it actually being Bumgarner.

Also, Terry Francona has expertly managed the bullpen and is willing to use super-reliever Andrew Miller in just about any spot, even as early as the fifth inning. It’s refreshing to see both a manager embrace that fireman role, and for the pitcher himself to fully support it. They have the longest title drought in the AL at 68 years. Maybe it would nicer if they broke it next year, but the Fightin’ Franconas are a fine pick.

Photo Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

Nevertheless, the lead-up to the showdown should be exciting. It might be hard to remember the last time there was a do-or-die game with the Mets that featured two pitchers this good. However, there have been a few precedents. In their all-time playoff history, the Mets have played just six games that met this simple parameter: if the Mets lost, they went home; if they won, they advanced. (This does not count the 1999 Wild Card playoff game against the Reds, which counted toward regular season statistics.)

Syndergaard vs. Bumgarner immediately vaults to the top of the discussion of the Mets’ best win-or-go-home showdowns, but which others would be in the mix? Not all of them are Ollie Perez against Jeff Suppan, after all.

1973 NLCS: Tom Seaver vs. Jack Billingham

Everyone remembers Seaver, but Billingham was a terrific pitcher in his own right for the “Big Red Machine.” While the offense was the star of the show, Billingham was an All-Star in ’73, leading the league in starts (40), shutouts (seven), and innings pitched (293.3). Seaver took home the Cy Young Award that year but Billingham received a couple first place votes as well, good enough for him to finish fourth in balloting.

Seaver and Billingham’s combined WARP of 12.6 (9.6 for Seaver, 3.0 for Billingham) is the highest of any do-or-die Mets playoff game, including Syndergaard vs. Bumgarner (11.2). Seaver does the heavy lifting, but Billingham was still the Reds’ ace. It was the coda of a thrilling NLCS where the heavy underdog 82-win Mets some took down Cincinnati’s vaunted 99-win powerhouse in a best-of-five. The Reds had forced a decisive Game 5 with a 12th-inning victory in Game 4, leading to the Seaver vs. Billingham finale.

The superior talent prevailed. With the score deadlocked at 2-2, the Mets knocked Billingham from the game in the fifth with a two-run double by Cleon Jones. Seaver went 8.3 innings of two-run ball before some walks led Yogi Berra to call on Tug McGraw to seal the 7-2 victory. He did just that and the crowd went crazy, storming the field.

1988 NLCS: Ron Darling vs. Orel Hershiser

The more fan-friendly choice would be to tab Ron Darling’s 1986 World Series Game 7 start against Bruce Hurst. Unfortunately, while Hurst was no slouch with a 2.99 ERA and that ended in an iconic win, it would have been a much better showdown if it was Roger Clemens pitching for Boston. Alas, it was not. So the more thrilling Darling matchup has to be a loss, when the Mets were tasked with somehow stopping the sensational Orel Hershiser in Game 7 of the 1988 NLCS. Even though WARP is not as fond of Hershiser and the record-setting scoreless streak he posted during the ’88 regular season, the 10.2 combined WARP between Darling and Hershiser is still quite good.

The Mets had extremely high expectations for ’88 after the fun of ’86, and with 100 wins, they were six games better than the NL West champion Dodgers. It seemed like they had a good grip on the series in Game 4. They were three outs away from taking a 3-1 series lead with Dwight Gooden on the mound. Then Mike Scioscia of all people tied it up with a two-run homer in the ninth. The Mets lost both that game and the next one, needing a five-hitter from David Cone simply to force Game 7.

One pitcher was dominant. The other was not at all. Regrettably for the Mets, the latter was Darling, who was pounded and removed without recording a single out in the second. When the dust settled, the Dodgers were up, 6-0, and though the Mets outlasted Hershiser in Game 3, he recaptured that shutout form from the end of the regular season. He went the distance on a five-hit shutout that ended both the Mets’ season and their hopes of more than a single championship from that overpowering mid-‘80s squad.

2015 NLDS: Jacob deGrom vs. Zack Greinke

Perhaps this marquee matchup was forgotten too quickly. This was another Mets/Dodgers make-or-break showdown, though this one ended in the Mets’ favor. Greinke was phenomenal in 2015 for L.A., posting a 1.66 ERA and finishing just behind Jake Arrieta for the NL Cy Young. Meanwhile, deGrom received down-ballot support for his superb season, proving that his Rookie of the Year campaign from 2014 was no fluke.

The Dodgers had been the favorites over the Mets, whose mere presence in the playoffs was a surprise. The Dodgers’ Game 2 win keyed by an infamous dirty slide was all that kept the series alive as it trudged to a decisive fifth game. Mets fans weren’t happy that more baseball was needed, especially with Greinke on the mound against them, but deGrom was up to the challenge.

Both pitchers allowed the other team to score in the first, and then settled into a duel. Greinke nursed a 2-1 lead until Travis d’Arnaud lifted a sacrifice fly in the fourth to score Daniel Murphy and tie it up. Then the playoff hero Murphy victimized Greinke with a solo blast in the sixth to put the Mets on top. Those were the only three runs allowed by Greinke in 6.7 innings, but deGrom did not surrender any runs after the first, leaving with six frames of two-run ball.

In a rare relief effort, Syndergaard dominated the seventh with two strikeouts. Then Jeurys Familia finished the Dodgers off with a two-inning save, fanning Howie Kendrick to end it.

May Familia end Wednesday night in similarly dramatic fashion.

Photo Credit: Chris Pedota/The Record via USA TODAY NETWORK

Instead, the events of early Sunday morning transpired, and baseball was forced to move on without the young star, who seemed on his way to a Hall of Fame career. Everyone around the game was wounded, but none beyond Fernandez’s own family could compare to the feelings of the Marlins players themselves, who absolutely loved him. There have been countless posts around the internet since his sudden passing about just how much Fernandez meant to not only the team but the city of Miami itself, and every one of them contains a moving story. He was truly special.

Somehow, some way, the Marlins recuperated after the cancelled game Sunday to take on the Mets. There is an excellent game recap by Scott Orgera up that delves further into the contest itself, but the pregame ceremony was a tearjerker. The Marlins players gathered around the mound, all wearing “Fernandez 16” jerseys. A single trumpet played “Take Me Out to the Ballgame” and a choir later sang the national anthem.

The Marlins and Mets players hugged on the field in a stirring display of mutual respect and appreciation of Fernandez, whose loss was certainly felt on the opposing side. While watching up in the Marlins’ TV booth, Al Leiter (who played in the World Series for both teams) could not help but recall a similar memory from his days in Queens that many Mets fans likely also remembered at this moment.

It was another touching ceremony, this one on September 21, 2001 at Shea Stadium, a little over a week after the devastating events of September 11. In the first major sporting event since the attacks, “Taps” was played, New York firefighters and policemen were honored for the bravery, and the nation attempted to put itself back together. The Braves and Mets were fierce rivals at the team, and the Mets were trying to make a miracle run to stay in the playoff race. That didn’t matter. The two sides embraced on the diamond, with handshakes and hugs aplenty. Chipper Jones, John Smoltz, and the powerhouse Atlanta crew might have normally been enemies in New York, but on this night, only cheers came from the fans watching this gesture.

The parallels between Monday night and September 21, 2001 did not stop there. As almost every Met fan knows, Mike Piazza came up with the Mets trailing in the eighth inning and the steady reliever Steve Karsay on for Atlanta. He brought New York to its feet with a long home run to center field to put the Mets on top and make everyone smile again, even if just for a moment. There were tears, cheers, and almost every emotion imaginable. The Mets closed it out in the ninth to win 3-2 and instantly establish an unforgettable memory. Even the Braves players later admitted that they did not mind falling in this game.

On Monday, the Mets found themselves on the other side of the coin. This time, it did not take until late in the game for the baseball gods’ magical moment. Starting in place of Fernandez, Adam Conley worked a perfect inning, and Dee Gordon stepped to the plate to lead off the game for the Marlins. Gordon was extremely close with Fernandez and his heartbreak was quite evident, from his reactions at Marlins Park on Sunday to the Instagram post he later made in Fernandez’s memory.

The lefty-swinging Gordon started the plate appearance against Bartolo Colon in the right-handed batter’s box, a tribute to the righty Fernandez. He took a pitch and then moved back to his normal spot. No one was thinking home run. After all, Gordon had not hit one out in 323 plate appearances all year and only had eight dingers in almost 2,300 plate appearances over his career. Even Eric Campbell had better odds of going deep.

Yet that’s exactly what happened. Gordon crushed Colon’s pitch into the second deck and rounded the bases in tears. Giancarlo Stanton embraced him near the on-deck circle. The dugout mobbed him. The crowd went wild. Fans watching from around the globe found their rooms to be a little dusty as well. Just like Piazza’s blast in 2001, this was a moment bigger than the game, just as the Mets’ own Twitter account said after the ball sailed over the fence.

The Braves couldn’t be too mad after Piazza’s homer, and neither could the Mets after Gordon’s homer. It was simply another example of baseball’s remarkable healing power, and it was absolutely beautiful to see.

Just this one time, Mets fans could still crack a smile after the other team scored. In this special case, they understood the feeling.

Photo Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Either way, the Mets seem fairly likely to appear in at least one of those games, especially since they have a very light schedule the rest of the way. (Baseball Prospectus has them at 71.6% playoff odds.) The Mets were tied with both the Cardinals and Giants for the Wild Card spots entering Wednesday. In an ideal world, those two teams do need that extra playoff game and they have to burn their aces (looking at you, Madison Bumgarner), weakening their odds.

What about the Mets’ starter though? Unless he suddenly gets hurt, Noah Syndergaard will be given the ball for the do-or-die game, whether it’s a play-in game or the official playoff. Since Syndergaard figures to receive at least a few down-ballot Cy Young votes, the Mets are in pretty good shape. Armed with a wicked arsenal and sporting 210 strikeouts to go along with a 2.36 ERA, 2.90 DRA, and 5.0 WARP, Syndergaard would be a formidable opponent for either squad.

Even with a pitcher as good as Syndergaard though, the Mets have a strong enough back of the bullpen with Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia that they can capably take over any close game. There is very little point to risk a tiring Syndergaard leaving a pitch up late in the eighth or ninth when they have high quality relievers available.

However, the middle innings present another story. Terry Collins will have a decision to make about how long he’s willing to stick with Syndergaard. Unless he runs into late situation where Jerry Blevins makes sense, there is a good chance that Syndergaard will present a better option than, say, Hansel Robles.

So how has Syndergaard typically fared later in games this year? Unlike most pitchers, Syndergaard has not struggled the third time through the order, which is usually a death knell for average starters. Opposing batters have improved from .215/.264/.306 the first time through to .275/.317/.438 the second time, only to fall back to .233/.284/.306 when Syndergaard is given a third shot. In 194 plate appearances, he has yet to surrender a single homer the third time through the order, though the eight allowed in 252 PA the second time is at least a warning sign.

There could be something to be Syndergaard pitch usage that might suggest how he would fare in the fifth, sixth, and seventh innings. With the help of Brooks Baseball, PITCHf/x, and FanGraphs, I made a table of how Syndergaard has tweaked his selection by inning (there were only 12 combined PA between the eighth and ninth, so they were omitted):

Syndergaard’s high-octane fastball is unsurprisingly his most commonly used pitch, though OPS against and PITCHf/x value both have his less-deployed slider as the most effective selection. The sinker has been fine, but it appears to be the weak link of his repertoire this year.

The problem is that as the game has progressed, Syndergaard has gradually eased up on the fastball and thrown that sinker more often than any other pitch from innings five through seven by a decent margin. Since the sinker has been hit harder than any of his pitches this year, this is not ideal.

Each batter naturally presents a different scouting report for the battery to use, which could certainly affect Syndergaard’s typical pitch selection. That being said, it’s possible that the Mets have found that his fastball is a little less useful in the middle innings. Sure, he can still dial it up to the high-90s, but it might not have as much command or movement.

If Syndergaard is rolling, Collins will probably stick with him into the seventh inning anyway, and that’s perfectly fine. The Mets will want Syndergaard to go deep and even relying on his sinker more often in the sixth or seventh, he is still a better option than Robles. The third-time-through-the-order concern is not present the same way for Syndergaard as it might be for other starters.

Should Syndergaard put a couple runners on in a close game in the seventh or maybe even with two outs in the sixth though, Collins should not be afraid to pull the trigger to bring in Blevins. In a do-or-die game, every at-bat becomes more magnified, and the Mets need to maintain any advantage they can find, even if it’s pulling their ace in a tense situation. They’ll just be glad if he doesn’t have a rare blow-up, like his start on Monday against the Braves.

Ideally, Syndergaard will throw shutout ball and this won’t be a problem. The game could be won or lost before Reed even enters though, so it will be imperative for Collins to pay close attention to Thor in the middle innings.

Photo Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

On August 19, 2016, the struggling Mets added Yoenis Cespedes to their starting lineup. He provided the exact boost they needed, leading the way as the Mets surged back into the playoff race.

The narrative is a little too good to be true. After all, it’s not as though Cespedes was absent from the Mets’ lineup for most of the 2016 season. He played almost every game for the Mets through August 3, and he had an All-Star year, hitting .289/.362/.548 with 22 homers. Despite his best efforts, they were only three games over .500 as of the end of play on that day, just as they were when they traded for Cespedes at the deadline last year.

A quad injury sent the slugger to the DL, and the Mets languished, seemingly falling out of the National League postseason picture entirely. They went 5-9 without Cespedes, dropped under .500, and inspired the glum BP Mets staff to make other September plans. They even lost the first game he played in his return in the lineup. Perhaps they would have lost a bunch of those games without Cespedes anyway

Nonetheless, it’s hard not to see the parallels in the Mets’ resurrections the past couple years. Yoenis Cespedes is frequently the most talented man on the field in whatever game he plays, and when he’s hot, that talent shines through. Since his return to the lineup, his pure production has been quite comparable to his 2015 Met numbers (entering Monday’s games):

Since his return, the Mets have the best record in baseball at 16-6, better than even the NL-leading Cubs. The big home runs have returned. The flair never left. Just like last year, the only concern most Met fans have is his upcoming contract. (His previous statements suggested that he’d like to stay in New York, but how could he not opt out after a year like this?)

Cespedes was playing perfectly well before the injury, but at least for now, he has returned to the truly remarkable heights that put him in the national spotlight last year. The surge in production has arrived not a moment too soon, particularly since Jay Bruce–the outfielder acquired to ostensibly be the 2016 version of 2015 Cespedes–has floundered to a .193/.267/.328 line. Instead, the new Cespedes is the old Cespedes and, thankfully, his hot streak has coincided with an even better run from Asdrubal Cabrera (.385/.424/.731 in the past month) and another strong showing from Wilmer Flores, who this time did not need the motivation of a near-trade.

One of the major reasons the Mets rallied past the Nationals last year was Cespedes taking over the competition with unbelievable power and an intimidating presence in the batter’s box. They almost certainly won’t wind up on top of the Nats this time around, but it is very easy to envision a scenario where Cespedes helps them reach the Wild Card game with another great run. It’s pretty much exactly what the Mets hoped he could do when they decided to bring him back for, at the very least, $27.5 million this year.

Whether or not Cespedes will even be back to pull this act again in 2017 is anyone’s guess, but for now, it’s fun to watch him dominate ballgames, flip some bats, and give some sass to the media. The Mets are truly lucky to have him.

(Again.)

Photo Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Or is it?

Technically, the Mets are still alive despite being eight and a half games behind the Nationals entering play on September 7. According to the Baseball Prospectus playoff odds, at that time, they had a 0.4% chance to win the division. So in one out of every 250 scenarios, the Mets somehow win the NL East.

It’s a beautiful idea, and it’s fun to think about how this farfetched run could even happen. Sam Miller pondered the same in spring 2014 about the Astros’ longshot playoff dreams, and I did a similar exercise for the Yankees’ slim AL East odds at Pinstripe Alley. The obvious possibilities for a Mets title are there—Mets win 26 in a row, Nationals lose out, and Eric Campbell is named CEO of Iams.

Three Mets NL East champion scenarios in particular are pretty terrific though. For reference, these were all created before the results of Wednesday’s games.

1. Win a series, lose a series

In this simulation, the Mets simply win every series after the most recent sweep of the Reds, while also sweeping the one Nationals three-game set that they encounter. To allow the Mets back in it, the Nationals fail to win a single series from this point forward. They embarrassingly drop a series to the cellar-dweller Braves and can only tie the two four-game sets they come across against the dismal Phillies and Diamondbacks. So they finish the month with a dismal 11-18 record compared to the Mets’ 21-8

That all puts the Mets one game behind entering the last weekend of the season, when the Mets take two out of three from the Phillies while the Nationals drop their set against the Marlins and Mark Melancon tries to choke Daniel Murphy. That’s kind of how it worked in 2015, anyway, so why not again?

2. Feasting on the weak

The Mets blew it. They were riding an eight-game winning streak into their pivotal series against the Nationals, five games behind and vaguely threatening to make it a race again when … Washington promptly swept them out of town. It was all over, or so they thought.

At the very least, the Mets had the fortune to play some very weak opponents in September. They feasted on the light competition, going a combined 19-0 against the Braves, Phillies, Reds, and the Twins. It was an absurd request, and yet the Mets did it. Meanwhile, the Nationals followed the non-sweep pattern of the first scenario by losing or tying every series, finishing the month at 14-15.

So even though they swept the Mets, the Nationals dropped the season finale against the Marlins to force one-game playoff for the NL East crown on October 3. Given one more chance against their rivals, the Mets took advantage, beating the Nats to secure an improbable division title.

3. An amazin’ run

The scariest part about this final scenario is that you can almost squint and see it. It would require some superhuman play by the Mets, but taken on a series-by-series basis, it’s vaguely plausible.

The Mets might play the Phillies and Braves a combined 13 times, but they probably aren’t to go undefeated against them. They probably won’t sweep that very good Nationals team, either. So one loss has been granted against each of them. Although it will still be a tall order to go 11-2 against the Phillies and Braves despite their incompetence, they are very bad and it is more reasonable than 13-0. They will have to sweep that Twins series too, but they are the worst team in the AL for a reason.

Meanwhile, those same Phillies and Braves likely won’t be coming up big against the Nationals, so no series victories or even ties for them. The free-falling Pirates and Marlins will need series victories, though, but their true talent level probably isn’t what they are showing right now. Similarly, the Diamondbacks aren’t really a .420 ballclub and have only been a few games under .500 since the beginning of August; perhaps they have a split in them.

As the 2007 Mets brutally proved, even seven-game leads in mid-September aren’t always safe. If the NL East deficit is cut to seven or lower by September 12, then Mets fans will know from all-too-recent memory that it’s possible for the Nationals to collapse.

So it will come down to the final series of the season, when the Mets must sweep the Phillies (or allocate their one loss to them there) and the Marlins must take two out of three from the Nationals to force a one-game playoff. It would have to be at Nationals Park since even before this exercise, Washington clinched the season series, but anything could happen there.

Imagine Bartolo Colon throwing seven innings of one-run ball while Yoenis Cespedes puts the Mets ahead on a late two-run homer. Bryce Harper swings over a pitch from Jeurys Familia and the team storms the field.

Yes, that image is too good to be true. This just isn’t happening.

But dream the dream.

Photo Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

However, the National League has allowed them to remain competitive, and not in the purely mathematical manner of the Braves. Until August 20, the Mets had a dismal 6-12 record in the month and had just lost four out of five to the woeful Diamondbacks and the slumping Giants. The Wild Card picture was not a pretty sight:

The Mets were five and a half games behind the Cardinals for just the second playoff spot, and they were closer to the 57-66 Phillies than St. Louis. Fans were understandably frustrated, particularly given the team’s action at the trade deadline.

To their credit though, the team has turned it around quickly in essentially a week’s worth of action. They won the last games of their four-game set in San Francisco to split that series, stole a road series victory from the Cardinals in St. Louis, and also dispatched the Phillies two out of three upon returning home this past weekend. The Mets’ 7-2 record in the small sample of nine games since the start of play on August 20 is the best in the NL.

The Mets have made up a full three games in the Wild Card standings, as their Wild Card competitors mostly struggled to hold them back. Last night, the Marlins continued this trend by allowing a walk-off homer to Yoenis Cespedes that brought the two teams even, and the mix is as intriguing as ever:

Whatever slim hopes the Rockies might have had have faded, as they were unable to gain any ground at all. The Dodgers and Giants swapped places, which despite the likely presence of Madison Bumgarner in a one-game playoff, is probably to the Mets’ benefit anyway since the Giants have been awful since the beginning of July and could very well fall out of it. The Pirates are the only other team that has gained ground, and they might be without ace Gerrit Cole.

The Mets have been hot, but the NL has absolutely given them this fortuitous opportunity through their opponents’ ineptitude. A Wild Card team should be more than just a handful of games over .500, and yet St. Louis sits in the playoff picture despite a barely 86-win pace. So there is a real chance for the Mets to defy expectations and make it to the playoffs, no matter how bleak the outlook appeared just a little over a week ago.

Sometimes, that small crack in the door is all it takes. It was 43 years ago today that the Mets found themselves dead last in the NL East and 10 games under .500 at 61-71. They trailed the Cardinals by six and a half games and needed to leapfrog four other teams simply to move into second place.

Those were the “Ya Gotta Believe” Mets of 1973. They shook off the struggles, played 21-8 ball down the stretch, and took advantage of all their rivals’ September swoons to steal the division title from St. Louis. It didn’t matter that they only had 82 wins. They were the division champions, and after shocking a 99-win “Big Red Machine” club in the NLCS, they took the Oakland A’s to Game 7 of the World Series in the middle of their “three-peat” dynasty.

Yogi Berra, the skipper of that ’73 Mets team, famously said, “It ain’t over ‘till it’s over.” However, he also said “When you come to a fork in the road, take it.”

That’s a Yogi-ism, but as with all of them, there is deeper meaning. The NL has granted the Mets this fork in the road. They can take it with a good final month, one that already features a light schedule. A frantic run to the Wild Card would be something remarkable, but then again, 2015 proved that these new Mets are no strangers to the remarkable.

Photo Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Fortunately for Collins, Alexei Ramirez rendered this point moot by breaking up Matz’s bid with a ground-ball single to right on his 105th offering. The post-game questions about Matz still brought one name from the Mets’ recent past to mind: Johan Santana. It was, of course, just a few years ago that the resurgent lefty snapped the Mets’ 50-year no-hit drought with his gem on June 1, 2012.

The story of Santana’s no-hitter has been spun into a cautionary tale, as he needed 134 pitches to get through it. He missed all of 2011 with shoulder surgery, and two months after the no-no, he made his last career start. Santana eventually needed another shoulder surgery and despite multiple comeback attempts, he has yet to return to a big-league mound. So the story has been that Santana’s grueling effort to complete the no-hitter caused damage to his shoulder, thus crippling the remainder of his career.

As numerous Met fans have brought up time and time again though, the story is not that simple. A high pitch count is not what sent Santana’s career to the pits. The Mets did what they could to give Santana a reprieve after the outing. He had six days of rest before his next outing and pitched with one extra day of rest twice during the remainder of June. He had a bad game against a Yankees offense that crushed 245 homers but still ended up with a 3.60 ERA and .727 OPS against over five starts in the remainder of June.

Santana was healthy, and there appeared to be little cause for concern regarding his no-hitter at that point. The problems only started on July 6 against the Cubs. Naturally, it was Mets nemesis Reed Johnson who did the damage. He hit a leadoff homer, but importantly, he hit a weak grounder between the pitcher’s mound and first base in the fifth inning.

Johnson ran over Santana’s ankle to get the base hit. Santana took some warm-up pitches and stayed in the game. He then promptly allowed hits to six of the next seven batters to put the game out of reach. The 2012 All-Star Game gave him a little rest between starts, but he was smoked by the Braves and the Dodgers in his next two appearances.

The Mets then placed Santana on the DL with a right ankle sprain. The suggestion that the no-hitter caused his struggles was already out there, but Santana, Collins, and the Mets all pointed to the ankle injury as the real culprit:

The Mets believe the injury has caused Santana’s surgically repaired shoulder to become fatigued, and he needs to rest and build up arm strength.

“Ever since the ankle injury, basically he’s lost his command,” Mets manager Terry Collins said. “We don’t think he can land properly … he is using all arm to pitch with, causing some fatigue in his shoulder, (but) no pain. There’s just nothing there.”

It’s not surprising that the ankle injury forced adjustments to his pitching motion. In a similar instance of a much more publicized ailment leading to something worse, the Yankees’ Chien-Ming Wang suffered a Lisfranc injury running the bases in 2008. Its subsequent effects on his delivery during rehab partlially led to the shoulder problems that ruined his career.

Santana suffered the same fate. He never quite got his mechanics back together, and after two more rocky starts in August, his Mets career was over. As it stands, Santana had an 8.27 ERA in the 10 starts after his no-hitter, providing an easy statistic for critics to reference. The July 6 ankle injury is constantly overlooked though, as again, he was fine for the rest of June following the no-hitter.

Santana’s shoulder was always going to be a risk as well, given the severity of the 2011 surgery. One long outing wasn’t going to be the difference-maker. Santana is far from the only pitcher in his mid-30s to have a night like that. For example, 36-year-old Chris Carpenters threw 132 pitches in a complete game on June 29, 2011. He was also a pitcher with a lengthy injury history. He luckily did not have any pesky outfielders stomp on his ankle and pitched to 2.93 ERA for the remainder of the season. Carpenter then helped pitch St. Louis to a World Series title.

It’s certainly not impossible for the no-hitter to have affected Santana, but given the circumstances surrounding the rest of his 2012 campaign, it doesn’t seem right to pin his rapid decline on pitch count. It’s hardly definitive that pitch counts in that range instantly lead to injury. Regardless, Santana himself has no regrets. He had the opportunity to accomplish history. Some analysts might criticize the prestige of a no-hitter these days, but they still definitely matter to the players and countless fans.

Collins might feel some regret over the no-hitter given the way the media reacted to the pitch count instead of the subsequent ankle injury. If Matz’s pitch count ran much further, Collins said he “wasn’t gonna visit the Johan Santana scenario again,” suggesting that he might have been pulled early. Provided that there aren’t any freak injuries in Matz’s future though, he probably would have been fine if he kept the no-hitter and remained in the game.

The myth of Santana’s downfall being the result of pitch count needs to die. Regrettably, based off the reactions to Matz’s no-hit attempt, it seems like it is here to stay.

Photo Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports