In honor of the Captain, a few BP Mets staffers pulled together their favorite memories of No. 5:

Dave Capobianco: I witnessed David Wright’s World Series home run in person, but there’s another memory I have of him that clearly stands above that or anything else. I’ve told this story before, but it’s worth repeating now: In 2006, as a 9-year-old, I attended a small baseball clinic for kids that was held by Wright. He was 23 at the time. It wasn’t much, just a few hitting and fielding tips for a bunch of kids in a stuffy high school gym. To be clear, Wright was getting nothing out of doing this, but he didn’t seem to mind at all. Throughout the entire clinic, Wright was engaging, personable and seemed genuinely happy to be there. At the end, Wright took pictures with everyone single person there, including me:

Justin Birnbaum: Mike Piazza was my childhood, but David Wright represents my formative years as a baseball fan. I could never ask for a better role model and player to represent a team that I love so dearly. When I think about Wright’s career, so many memories come to mind. The image of him with his arm around Jose Reyes, covered in champagne with a cigar in his mouth after their 2006 division title is forever burned into my memory. I sat in the upper deck at Shea Stadium when he rocketed his first walkoff home run over the left field fence against the Padres. I was sitting right behind first base in right field when he knocked a single for his last walk-off hit in 2016 against the Brewers. Captain, all I can say is thank you. Thank you for being a leader. Thank you for being a role model. Thank you for being an ambassador to the game. When I have children, I want them to play the game like you — filled with passion and exuberance. The world is not fair and you were robbed of your career, but as a fan, I rest easy knowing that you left it all out on the field.

Jordan Rabinowitz: I could dig through my brain for hours trying to excavate the most indelible memory I have of David Wright doing something with bat, legs, arm or glove that actually helped the Mets score or prevent runs, (there’s plenty to choose from) but ultimately it’s this: David Wright realizing, after 12 Major League seasons, that he’s finally going to the World Series. I feel secondhand catharsis every time this GIF loops. You watch that and understand that Wright wasn’t just a player happy to finally reach the World Series, he was a player happy to finally reach the World Series as a Met. What began in 2004 as hope, followed by bitter disappointment, followed by bitter-er disappointment, followed by waste, followed by hope again — it all culminated in this moment. It’s perfect, and thanks to GIF technology, it can be endless.

Photo credit: Brad Penner – USA Today Sports 

********

Kate: Let’s start with the comments the other day about how the Mets don’t need to do a full rebuild. Does anyone think they can compete in 2019?

Jeffrey: They think they can. They probably can. What they think they will need to do and what they actually need to do are not in any way an intersecting Venn diagram.

Kate: The third circle is what they actually do

Lukas: They should try to contend. To do that, they should spend to the tax.

Jeffrey: “Getting a full season of Noah Syndergaard is just like signing an ace.”

Lukas: Since they won’t do that, they should do some other things like an intelligent team (and that starts this season, seeing what you have in the guys you have). They won’t do that either, so it’ll mostly be doing dumb things and hoping the pitching stays healthy and carries.

Jeffrey: Hence Kevin Kaczmarski starting tonight

Lukas: Jeff McNeil is only a 2B apparently. And we’ve got to see more of Dom Smith for whatever reason.

Alex: They can contend if everything breaks exactly right, but we can say that about almost every team

Kate: We also say that every year. They’ll be good if they’re healthy. Eventually we have to acknowledge that they’re never going to be healthy

Alex: Right

Jeffrey: The running joke on the podcast has been that they keep building a high variance 81-win team, but once you start hitting the low-end variance a few times in a row is it really an 81-win team.

Lukas: They have two aces, they should try. You can deal either of them at the deadline or next offseason anyway when they predictably fall short.

Jeffrey: There’s a great longform piece on the last decade of Mets Medical/Strength & Conditioning that is absolutely never getting written

Lukas: Barwas and pain guy should team up

Kate: Okay, well there’s our first question: do you trade deGrom or Syndergaard or both?

Lukas: Now, no. This offseason, no. Next deadline / offseason, yes.

Jeffrey: “Depends on the deal.” – Ted Berg

Alex: deGrom yes. Syndergaard no

Jeffrey: I think deGrom you deal at the deadline if you deal him. Syndergaard needs to have a healthy second half, but you are still selling low in December

Kate: I think if you’re pretending to compete next year, you have to keep both of them

Justin: Neither

Kate: But I think you sell deGrom at the deadline next year

Lukas: I think part of the problem is that there aren’t many teams that need these guys and have the pieces. The Angels and Brewers could start with Adell and Hiura, but don’t have a whole lot else.

Kate: They’re clearly not doing an extension and you have to get something for him

Justin: I really feel like they have the envy of the league with two pitchers of that caliber. They can build around them if they would just spend the money

Lukas: The Dodgers could deal a lot of stuff, but they never trade their good prospects. The Yankees won’t move Torres

Jeffrey: Lukas is right that you are basically limiting yourself to those two teams even though the best matches are the Yankees/NL East teams. I can’t see them doing that, and a good argument they shouldn’t if the idea is to compete in the short term,

Kate: Yeah I think Justin summed it up unfortunately. The Two Aces are enough if you buy around them

Justin: Kate’s point is a valid one though. Why on earth has deGrom not been locked up long term? Why wasn’t that done years ago?

Alex: deGrom’s approaching the wrong side of 30, already has a TJ, and probably isn’t your best starter on the next Mets contender

Kate: Thank you, Brian Kenny

Justin: It all depends on if they actually spend money though

Kate: (That was mean I’m sorry)

Jeffrey: I mean a 5/90 deal is likely fine. Given his skillset

Lukas: I still think it’s worth at least rolling the dice next year.

Justin: If they hold both of them they have to commit to making a run at Machado I feel like

Jeffrey: They aren’t signing Manny Machado

Lukas: Maybe Rosario breaks out, Alonso is legit, and Bruce / Cespedes / the pitching is healthy.

Justin: If they are going to try to basically run out this same bad team for another year then they unfortunately need to maximize the return on one of them

Jeffrey: They will take him to dinner like Cano probably. I don’t think you get a wildly different return for either arm at next year’s deadline. Like there comes a point of diminishing returns once you get up to like four years of team control like with Syndergaard. There’s no model for that trade. You are still getting next year’s Keston Hiura for one of them

Kate: I guess part of the problem is also that we have no idea who’s in charge. There’s no way this three-headed monster actually works

Jeffrey: Oh I think that was fairly clear from the presser

Lukas: It’s not a three-headed monster though, there’s still just one monster. And it’s the same monster it always is. Jeffy ain’t going nowhere

Jeffrey: The Padres did this short term before they brought in Preller. Ironically also with Minaya. I expect we will get clarity in the offseason and it will be something like Minaya as President of Ops or equivalent with a GM (likely Ricco but not a lock) under him

Kate: But for this trade deadline, we assume Ricco is calling the shots?

Lukas: The fact that Minaya has weaseled his way back to the top of the Mets hierarchy years after we celebrated him finally getting fired is depressing and concerning.

Alex: I’ve learned to assume nothing with this organization

Jeffrey: I mean the Mets absolutely went out and brought him back

Kate: Also hilariously Mets-y, Lukas

Justin: That’s an interesting aspect of this too. Moving either deGrom or syndergaard is a franchise defining move and the people making the decision aren’t even locks to be with the organization in a few months

Lukas: And by the Mets, you mean Jeff Wilpon.

Jeffrey: “The Mets.” The Metsssssss

Justin Mears: Would they actually have the balls to pull the trigger on that move if that’s the case?

Lukas: No, because Jeff will never let them go into a full rebuild.

Jeffrey: “You can’t rebuild in New York”

Lukas: They refused to deal Wright and Reyes the last time around when they needed to (emotional attachment to Wright aside).

Justin: That was different though Reyes was a free-agent

Jeffrey: I think the most likely scenario is they make the obvious rental deals (Familia, Cabrera, maybe Blevins in August) and reassess after the season

Justin: That was a terrible blunder though. Having the best year of his career and they don’t trade him, then don’t even attempt to sign him

Kate: I am unfortunately with Jeffrey

Jeffrey: Didn’t he pull a hammy right before the deadline

Kate: I don’t think they even sell off Lugo (nor do I think they should)

Jeffrey: I remember it being something like that which made him functionally impossible to deal

Kate: He wormed his way back home so it all worked in the end (Excuse me while I go throw up)

Lukas: Reyes and Minaya both. Gotta sign K-Rod guys.

Justin: I’m actually not a downer on Minaya

Jeffrey: K-Rod has been pretty good in Indy ball I think

Alex: He has!

Lukas: Has he been as good as Jordanny Valdespin? Because that’s the reunion I really want.

Justin: (Omar) did some foolish things, but he at least understood you need to supplement your roster with external big league talent. Bringing Pedro and Beltran here was the start of an exciting string of seasons

Lukas: I’m not so sure that’s Omar as much as the Wilpons allowing him to spend

Justin: Jason Bay was obviously a nightmare. And K-rod didn’t work out. But at least he tried

Jeffrey: No one has been as good as JV1 in the Atlantic League. Not even Lew Ford

Alex: I’m assuming I’m in the minority here but they probably should deal Lugo?

Lukas: If you’re trying to contend next year, I don’t agree.

Kate: Yeah I think they need him too badly next year

Jeffrey: I don’t think you are wrong. They will get interest (The Brewers have been rumored to love him forever) and like if they aren’t going to use him as a starter and given the shape of his arm, might as well deal him while you can?

Alex: His arms going to fall off, he isn’t this (no italics on iPhone app) good, and his value to a contender will never be higher

Lulas: Lugo is basically the third best starter they have at this point.

Kate: They’re not going to replace him

Justin: Exactly Lukas. It all depends on “if they actually intend to contend”

Alex: I agree @lukas.vlahos

Lukas: Here’s the real problem though.

Kate: Well they’re never going to admit they’re not contending

Lukas: The middle ground is how teams die. You either need to try to contend and go all in or rebuild and go all in on that. They will do neither.

Alex: Yes 1000%

Justin: Exactly

Alex: There’s no worse place for an organization than The Middle

Lukas: They will try to contend while doing nothing and end up an equally bad team that hasn’t improved it’s future outlook either.

Justin: They can’t not do anything and then not invest money in the rest of the team

Kate: Sure they can. And they will

Justin: Either make a blockbuster trade and blow the thing up, or actually supplement them

Lukas: And I’m sure anyone who has heard me say this over the past couple of years is sick of me repeating it, but look at the 2016 Yankees

Jeffrey: Justin has recently woken up from a eight-year coma

Lukas: Probably could’ve made a run for the WC, realized that the middle sucks, and dealt their relievers for top prospects. The Mets were in basically the same spot, hung on to Reed and Familia, and got to the WC game. Hoo-fricking-rah

Kate: And look at the division. The Yankees were up against Boston and…that’s it

Lukas: Then they got nothing for Reed and will probably get nothing for Familia.

Alex: Here’s the problem with The Middle

Kate: The Braves arrived early. The Phillies arrived early

Alex: The Marlins actually tried to be this bad

Kate: I still don’t think the Nats are this bad

Alex: The Mets didn’t intend for this

Justin Mears: The Mets just really need to do what intelligent teams would do which I know is difficult for them. McNeil and Alonso need to be up. They need to find out if they can have a young right side of the infield like that in 2019 or not

Jeffrey: I was told we aren’t allowed to be mad about Jeff McNeil not being up

Lukas: He’s only a 2B

Jeffrey: I can be mad about many things at once though

Kate: We are only allowed to care about Alonso

Justin: Unfortunately Alonso probably won’t get promoted at all because they’re worried service time or whatever. And I’m afraid you’re 2019 opening day first baseman will be jay Bruce

Lukas: I don’t even hate that plan.

Kate: Isn’t the galaxy brain First Baseman Yoenis Cespedes?

Lukas: Let’s be realistic, the Mets can’t get rid of Bruce. They won’t cut him, because they refuse to recognize sunk costs. If he’s healthy enough to be his usual 10% better than league average self, fine. Put him at first and trade Alonso to go all in next year.

Justin: No way

Lukas: We’ve really gone off the rails very quickly haven’t we @kateefeldman

Kate: I don’t even know that you could trade Alonso at this point because you have no idea what he is

Alex: Since Jarrett isn’t here…TEBOW

Kate: I still think we stayed on topic longer than last year. Tebow is 100% here in September

Lukas: I also have no problem with that.

Justin: What if Alonso can become the type of right handed first base bat Goldschmidt is? They can’t move him

Lukas: So long as McNeil and Alonso are here. Ok, more likely he’s just another bad R/R 1B who can’t play defense.

Justin: Only one way to find out

Alex: He’s more league average than he is Goldschmidt

Jeffrey: It’s probably like right-handed Lucas Duda. Which is good.

Lukas: I think you mean Good

Kate: Look, not everyone needs to be a superstar. A league average first baseman is fine. If you assume Conforto/Cespedes are superstars. And whoever else around them is…good enough

Lukas: My point is this though – you have to utilize Jay Bruce _somehow_ because he’s here to stay. The best spot is 1B. Use your other 1B asset to improve the team elsewhere. And long term, dealing Alonso most likely doesn’t cost you much, though some people will scream bloody murder on Twitter I’m sure.

Alex: I wouldn’t deal him

Kate: I do get what Lukas is saying. They almost have too many players. And I’m not a prospect hugger but I hate the thought of blowing his potential to play Bruce

Lukas: You’d also deal deGrom though, so we’re arguing for different paradigms – I’m saying dealing him is optimal for trying to make things work next year, as is keeping deGrom.
If you want to rebuild, then yeah obviously don’t deal him.

Alex: Sure, I wouldn’t argue that. No team is giving anything close to his perceived value though

Justin: They are going to have a roster crunch provided everyone is healthy (which we know they won’t be). We know Nimmo and Conforto in the outfield. Cespedes/Bruce in one of the corners and perhaps the other at first would block Alonso so I see what Lukas is saying

Lukas: They need close to perfect health if you want to contend next year. They don’t have the resources to build sufficient depth behind these guys for a real contender. Thus, if you want to try to contend, you need to assume perfect health and build from there. If you don’t get the perfect health, the team is done anyway.

Justin: It’s not even just the health though they’ll need serious rebounds from Rosario and Conforto. And who is the catcher?

Lukas: Conforto will be fine. Shoulder injuries take time. I’m pining for Grandal

Kate: It’s definitely going to be d’Arnaud/Plawecki. They are never going to move on from those two

Lukas: So should we talk about specific guys and possible destinations now? Not sure we can beat the horse of ‘the Mets have bad organizational processes’ anymore. Well we could, but we shouldn’t.

Kate: Yes let’s do it. Let’s start with Familia, since he’s one of the two guarantees

Alex: The obvious deal is with Boston in a package with Cabrera

Lukas: Their farm is terrible though. And I think you get more splitting them up.

Justin: I agree with a tandem trade with Familia/Cabrera but like I wrote in that piece last week, I think Atlanta is a perfect match

Alex: I don’t believe they’re getting a top 100 guy for those two dudes. I’ll tell you what I’d do. I’d take Groome and some lotto ticket for them

Kate: Atlanta was intriguing to me because it makes almost too much sense. Groome had TJ, right?

Alex: Yes

Lukas: I’d do that, sure.

Alex: They’d likely deal him for immediate help. Dombrowski traded Anderson Espinoza for Pomeranz

Lukas: Familia can go to literally any contender though, because every contender wants bullpen help. I think the Brewers are another interesting spot if you want to package them, because they need 2B help. Assuming they don’t just call up Hiura.

Justin: Groome actually grew up in my town. My cousin played with him

Kate: Can we assume Cabrera goes to the runner-up for Machado?

Lukas: Hmm, I’m not sure.

Justin: Yeah that’s hard to say. I think Moustakas goes to the runner up for Machado

Kate: Oh man I honestly forgot about Moustakas (You can tell how prepared I am for the trade deadline)

Lukas: Yeah I’ve tuned out a lot due to how bad the Mets are. Who are we asking for from the Braves if we package Familia and Cabrera?

Alex: Good question

Lukas: Touki? That’d be fun.

Justin: They have so many arms and they’ll never be able to find a spot for all of them. I think you try to get a pair of them from them

Alex: I think the Mets would be on him. They’ve had success with that profile

Lukas: I’d be down with Touki and another lower-tier prospect, and I think that’s a reasonable ask from the Braves. The Brewers don’t seem to have much of anything after Hiura unfortunately.

Kate: And Ricco did say they were looking for major-league arms (or close to)

Alex: Is the Touki return for both?

Justin: I’d push for Touki and Joey Wentz

Lukas: You could package both to the Angels since Cozart is done for the season now, but I wouldn’t know what to ask for.

Alex: Touki’s viable in the ‘pen as early as this year and I don’t know if they deal him. But that’s the type of arm I’d target

Kate: I hate to be the obvious downer, but do they trade intradivision?

Lukas: Maybe Griffin Canning from the Angels? For Familia / Cabrera types, I think they would.

Kate: Or are we calling this The Kelly Johnson Exception?

Lukas: Not deGrom or Thor though.

Kate: I think that’s fair. Honestly the only other guarantee is Blevins. And he hasn’t really upped his trade value lately. But he’s lefthanded so he’ll bring something back

Alex: Some sort of lotto ticket

Lukas: Yeah I meant to just sift through minor league reliever numbers, because that’s the kind of return you get for Blevins (Who they should’ve dealt last year and in 2016, but whatever)

Kate: Sandy said that during one of our BP events. He just sorts leaderboards by ERA (I think it was a joke)

Lukas: If you could find two lottery tickets like Stephen Villines in another system, I’d take that for Blevins. Also, Stephen Villines needs some major league time this season. Which he won’t get.

Justin: I don’t see the angels as a viable trade partner because in my opinion the 5 playoff teams in the AL are already set and they aren’t one of them. Why move young talent?

Alex: Blevins for Ohtani who says no?

Lukas: I could see them trying to make things work, just because they have Trout and Ohtani is going to need to miss a season eventually for TJ. Would they / could they move Frazier? Assuming this injury is short term.

Alex: I’ve thought about this and it’s probably not worthwhile

Kate: 2019 Third Baseman Jose Reyes. I don’t think you trade Frazier either

Lukas: Wilmer Flores.

Kate: He’s not really making that much to make a difference

Lukas: That’s fair. I want to see if someone actually trades for Bautista.

Kate: I literally forgot about him. Someone should. He’s a perfectly fine bench piece

Lukas: I’d be happy with a return similar to Blevins – high K, close to the majors, low pedigree bullpen arm(s)

Alex: I saw one of the beats tweet out that there’s no interest in Mesoraco and laughed my ass off. Who would want Devin Mesoraco?!???

Justin: I think they find a home for Bautista

Kate: Throw Mesoraco in to Boston for salary relief (they won’t). Slightly off topic, but Bautista is probably the most successful signing in…a long time. And that’s the saddest sentence ever

Lukas: Still not a good signing. Because the process behind it is abysmal. They hit on 18 and got a 3

Kate: You always have to bring me down

Lukas: I have a very small set of skills Kate. Cabrera for Gingergaard who says no

Kate: Jeffrey would be so happy

Jeffrey: !!!

Lukas: The whole fan base should be happy if they pulled that off.

Kate: There’s no way they pull that off

Jeffrey: There is not

Lukas: Oh of course. They could use Familia too probably.

Kate: So the problem is that we’re out of trade candidates. And you’re not rebuilding a team on Cabrera, Familia and Blevins

Alex: Flores probably gets a look from someone?

Kate: Excuse me, it’s Walkoff King Wilmer Flores

Justin: I don’t think they could get enough value in return for Flores to negate the mutiny

Kate: He’s going to make, what, like $4M next year?

Jeffrey: Yeah you are getting The Kelly Johnson return. So someone else’s Rob Whalen

Kate: That seems super not worth it

Alex: It opens up the playing time they need to give Dom though. The only way to apparently do that is to move the guy blocking him

Lukas: Dom is just so bad.

Kate: Okay, here’s a question

Lukas: What do you even do with him?

Kate: Is Wilmer better than Dom?

Jeffrey: Yes

Lukas: Yes

Jeffrey: Next question

Justin: Yes lol

Lukas: Dom does literally nothing well

Kate: That’s what I thought too. So I’m not moving Wilmer to free up playing time

Lukas: Can’t make contact, bad power, can’t play defense, can’t run.

Kate: I hate to say give up on Dom, but they really shouldn’t be basing any decisions around him

Justin: Especially since Alonso seems to have supplanted him as the “first baseman of the future.” The fact that Dom has been playing some left field tells you all you need to do about how the organization feels about him

Alex: Fair enough. Well sure it’s not like this wasn’t obvious last year either. But let’s stop screwing around then and playing him in left (edited)

Kate: I know we already talked about this, but I still can’t get past an organization playing Dom Smith in left saying McNeil can only play second (edited)

Lukas: Yeah, why are we wasting at bats on Smith instead of McNeil and Alonso. And, to an extent, Guillorme

Jeffrey: Look there is an argument to just use the rest of the year to prove that he can’t. But they won’t even really fully commit to that

Alex: Right. Once again they’re in the middle of a decision where the middle is the worst place to be

Justin: I don’t necessarily mind them only wanting to play McNeil at 2nd. That tells me they view him as a potential long term answer there. But I’ll be pretty annoyed if he isn’t here on the next plane after Cabrera is traded

Lukas: Dom goes down flailing in the middle of this discussion

Jeffrey: This should clear up after the deadline but it probably won’t

Lukas: Is Reyes cut at the deadline?

Kate: No

Jeffrey: Because they will always find playing time for marginal vets

Lukas: (No)

Kate: My not-actually-a-conspiracy-theory conspiracy theory is that they hold onto Reyes until they can get Wright back for a game

Alex: I stand by my theory that he’s the corresponding move for TEBOW. What better way to go out than for the former Heisman winner

Kate: I think Alex may like Tebow more than I do

Alex: I don’t. I just think the whole thing’s funny. The Metsssss

Kate: So play out the rest of 2018. What happens the day after the trade deadline

Jeffrey: The Mets lose a baseball game

Alex: Ricco’s the GM giving the presser

Lukas: Are you asking us what should happen or what will happen.

Alex: McNeil’s starting at 2B ONLY

Kate: Let’s go with what should happen first. I think McNeil is up and the starting second baseman

Lukas: Reyes cut, Cabrera + Familia + Blevins traded. Hanhold, Smith, McNeil, and Guillorme up. McNeil plays everday, mostly at 2B but I also want to see him at 3B, LF, and even SS on occasion.
Hanhold and Smith get high leverage work. Down the line, Villines, Bashlor, and Uceta also get time at the back of the bullpen. Alex: Agree with Lukas

Kate: I think that all is entirely fair

Lukas: Dom cut or sent back to Triple-A, I don’t care which. Alonso plays everyday at 1B.

Kate: He’ll go to Vegas. They’re not cutting him

Justin: Kate is absolutely right in my opinion. They want a Reyes at short wright at third visual before the end of the year

Kate: The last few months should be about getting looks at everyone borderline. So now, what will they do

Lukas: Reyes plays everyday. Smith plays, but not everyday. Alonso languishes in Triple-A for no reason. Kaczmarski gets more at bats than McNeil. They continue to be way too slow with their reliever promotions and we don’t get a definitivie idea on any of those guys. And Tebow, of course.

Alex: Yea I couldn’t have said that any better than Lukas just did. Also I know we’re past that point in the conversation, but I’m interested to hear thoughts on keeping/moving Wheeler and Matz?

Kate: Oh right, those guys. I just assumed they were both on the DL

Alex: Both pitching as well as ever!

Lukas: I’d keep them both.

Kate: Yeah I would too

Lukas: If you’re trying to contend next season, nothing you get for them will help more than they will.

Kate: I just don’t think the team replaces them

Lukas: If you want to rebuild, then yeah trade them.

Alex: Agree with that Lukas

Lukas: You need to make up your mind though. Don’t trade one.

Justin: Don’t trade any of your pitchers

Lukas: Do both or neither (barring someone making a huge offer for one).

Kate: And I don’t think either has been good or healthy enough for long enough that you’re going to get blown away

Lukas: Wheeler has looked good of late I think. But yeah, you’re not getting anything noteworthy for either of them. Christ, this is depressing.

Kate: He’s looked good. I don’t know that he’s looked good enough that he has more trade value than 2019 value

Lukas: Is there anything else we’ve missed? Don’t think there’s anything else that we can point out is bad.

Kate: I think that’s it and it’s depressing as hell. I really don’t think they’re going to be good next year

Alex: Is Yoenis alive?

Lukas: Is Amed Rosario just bad?

Kate: Okay the idea wasn’t to get MORE depressing. I know how we’ll finish it: predictions for win-loss record this year

Lukas: 70-92

Justin: I don’t know if they even win 70

Lukas: 67-95 next year

Justin: It’s pretty depressing writing their record in my scorebook every night

Jeffrey: 74-88 again

Kate: Optimist Jeffrey is the stuff of nightmares. I’m going 70-92 too

Alex: I’ll go 72-90 this year. 79-83 next year

Lukas: Don’t worry guys, Anthony Kay was mediocre in Advanced-A tonight. The farm will save us.

Justin: I’m saying 66-96 this year

Lukas: How did no one predict 69 wins. I’m changing mine to 69-93. Not a good season, but at least it’s nice

Photo credit: John E. Sokolowski – USA TODAY Sports

Become a fan of the NYXL

Who are the NYXL? Only the best team in the Overwatch League by a wide margin. Even better (or worse, depending on your point of view), the NYXL are owned by the Wilpons, meaning you’re not totally betraying the Mets. Saybyeolbe is the best Tracer in the world. Pine, the Big Boss, makes the most nutty Widowmaker / McCree plays you’ll see. Jonak’s Zenyatta is so good he’s redefined the hero and is the probable league MVP. Ark is underrated as a main healer, and Mano, Janus and Meko offer a solid tank pool to support their DPS / Jonak carry. If you didn’t understand anything I just said, that’s fine, because OWL has developed a fantastic caster and broadcast program that does a great job of drawing people into the game. Plus it all streams free on Twitch, so you don’t have to line the Wilpons’ pockets to enjoy a New York-based sports team that’s actually elite and isn’t the Yankees. – Lukas Vlahos

Play fantasy golf

If you’re tired of the Mets losing because they’re not scoring enough, why not play a game where the lowest score actually wins? Yahoo! Sports just launched their fantasy golf game for 2018 last week, and you can still sign up. To be clear: I hate golf with a passion. In fact, I had never even heard of fantasy golf before this, and I can’t fathom why anyone would play it. That said, I also can’t fathom why anyone would willingly watch the Mets, but here we are. So, who knows? Maybe fantasy golf is fun? It certainly can’t be less fun than watching the Mets. – Dave Capobianco

Binge watch “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”

I was going to suggest “The Good Place” here but I think, at this point, there’s no hope for you if you haven’t watched Kristen Bell and Ted Danson at their best. So instead, I’m here to extol the virtues of “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel,” the delightful Amazon drama about the mad divorcée of the Upper West Side. Rachel Brosnahan is an utter delight as Miriam Maisel, the stay-at-home mom who finds her world turned upside down when her husband ditches her and the kids for his ditzy secretary and the Methodist version of his life. “Maisel” is a whirlwind of deliriously funny jokes, verbal and situational, backdropped by 1958 New York, back when the Mets weren’t around to ruin anyone’s life. There’s even a good Brooklyn Dodgers dig in there for good luck. – Kate Feldman

Discover The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild for the Nintendo Switch

Breath of the Wild is so immersive and all-consuming that I’d still be lost in it even if the Mets were historically hot. This game isn’t a distraction so much as a new way of life for me now. I’m 27 and had never played a Zelda game before, but upon some good advice that being a Zelda novice wasn’t an inhibitor, I took it up and cannot put it down. Seriously, I might never see the outside world again. Though that’s OK, because in the outside world the Mets are crazy bad, and in here I have the Master Sword. – Jordan Rabinowitz

Find the Terry Collins ejection video

If someone had told you that Terry Collins would be the highlight of the Mets’ 2018 season, you probably would have wondered to what depths the season would sink. But this hysteric version of Terry trading incoherent obscenities with an umpiring crew would be buzzworthy even if the Mets were in first place. Make no mistake, this season is miserable, but this clip makes it slightly more bearable. MLB had wiped its presence from the internet because its leak violated part of the CBA, but if you look hard enough, you can still find it. – Zane Moran

Root for the Yankees

As a lifelong New York Mets fan who grew up when the Yankees won every year this one is hard for me to say, however the “new” New York Yankees are a team that I can watch and root for. The Yankees make watching baseball fun again. While the Mets, night after night, struggle to score runs, the Yankees lead the league in dingers behind the trio of Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Didi Gregorious. And youngsters Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar show that the Yankees are fun to watch. I am not saying to go out and buy an “All Rise” shirt but watch the Yankees (presumably on mute) and once again watching baseball will be fun (and not depression inducing). – Seth Rubin

Jeff McNeil

McNeil has been an obsession of a small corner of the Met prospect enthusiast world, particularly after the former golfer showed up to camp with 20 pounds of extra muscle a couple seasons ago. Core muscle injuries have stymied him the past two seasons, but he’s now batting .328/.407/.719 in Double-A with a roughly 1:1 K:BB ratio and 11 home runs in 145 PA. He’s a fine defender at second or third and can fake it at shortstop at least as well as Reyes can at this point. He’s also 26 and a minor league free agent after the season, so the window for getting a look at him at the major league level is short. McNeil would be a more entertaining bench bat that most of the other utility infielders in the system, and he might be better than all of them too. – Lukas Vlahos

Nobody

What I mean to say is, even if the Mets DFA’d him today and replaced him with nobody, they’d still be better as a 24-man team without Jose Reyes than as a 25-man team with Jose Reyes. Sure, the outfield is perilously thin and the bullpen has been overworked — the Mets need bodies! But the ill effects they’d experience by playing a man down are still preferable to keeping Reyes employed. Just think about this: In 2017, Reyes was worth -0.6 WAR (Baseball Reference) over 145 games. This season, Reyes is already worth -0.5 WAR in just 31 games. Calling him a liability is generous, which is probably why there’s a whole Mets Twitter subculture dedicated to the guy who called him a virus. - Jordan Rabinowitz

Vicki Kawaguchi

Shortstop Vicki Kawaguchi was arguably the most lopsided Backyard Baseball player on the roster. The girl couldn’t hit to save her life, but man could she run; call her the infield version of Champ Stuart. Her glovework was also like no other. She just couldn’t make contact if the ball was on a tee. The good news is that Reyes can’t either, so the defensive whiz kid still slots in ticks ahead of the incumbent. Come on down, Vicki. We have some pinch-running opportunities and a league-minimum salary for you. – Kate Feldman

Luis Guillorme

Luis Guillorme will probably never be an everyday player in the majors. He barely squeaked into the top 10 of a mediocre farm system and projections don’t look too favorably on a no-speed, no-power kind of hitter, even if the glove is – and it is – something special. But Guillorme has one thing going for him and that is the ability to replace the single most replaceable player in baseball right now, Jose Reyes. Guillorme can’t hit and probably never will, but the same goes for Reyes, who takes defensive ineptitude to new heights. They’ll both ground out weakly to kill a rally, but at least Guillorme won’t embarrass himself on the other side of the ball as well. In a perfect world, one might hope to find a player who can do both, but this is the Mets world and we have Guillorme. We’ll take it. – Maggie Wiggin

Tim Tebow

You’re almost certainly wondering why I’m advocating for a former Heisman Trophy winner and NFL QB to assume a roster spot that’s held by a former MLB All-Star, but have you seen Reyes play this season? In 59 at-bats this season, Reyes is slashing .153/.219/.220 and has only five more hits (9) than errors (4). The soon-to-be 34-year-old has actually been worse than a replacement player this season, as evidenced by his -0.4 WARP, and his presence on the roster is further complicated due to a domestic violence incident in 2015. Meanwhile, Tebow is running a 9.3% walk rate and a 102 wRC+ to go along with four home runs in Double-A, surpassing all expectations thus far. Tebow is by all accounts an amazing person with a golden heart and I’ve personally seen the impact he can have on attendance. At a time when MLB is trying to attract a younger audience, who better to lead the charge than Tebow? Add in that a call-up would be at the expense of Jose Reyes and this is a win-win for everyone. – Alex Rosen

Henry Rowengartner

The sun has set on Jose Reyes’ time with the Mets and while we speculate on his imminent departure, why not kill two birds with one stone? With A.J. Ramos down for the count, who better to step in and sure up the bullpen than Chicago’s own Henry Rowengartner? Despite being 12 years old, Rowengartner sports one of the fastest heaters in the major leagues. Plus, he knows the key to being a big league pitcher — the three Rs: readiness, recuperation, and conditioning. Pros: No more Reyes. Cons: I still haven’t quite figured out if hot ice is a thing. The fact of the matter is we can do without a relatively useless utility man. – Justin Birnbaum

Hanley Ramirez

It’s become abundantly clear Jose Reyes is no longer capable of being an even remotely competent Major League baseball player. You know it, I know it, seemingly the only ones who don’t realize it are Sandy Alderson and his staff. For the sake of this conversation, let’s assume they climb out from under their rock they’ve been under and DFA Reyes. But who should replace him? Well, my answer has changed from my original thought due to a development in the American League that watched the Red Sox surprisingly DFA Reyes’ old friend Hanley Ramirez. The veteran checks all of Alderson’s boxes: Aging player another organization just gave up on; could be had for the big league minimum; hasn’t really been all the good for a full calendar year. That all sounds pretty negative but in all honesty Ramirez can still turn in a competitive at-bat and his slash line with the Red Sox this year (.254/.313./.395) is quite a bit better than a lot of what New York has been running out so far this year. Ramirez isn’t a perfect fit but he’s a better one than Jose Bautista, and at this point why not? – Justin Mears

Ty Kelly

Let’s not get too crazy here. There’s no reason to think that adding another washed up veteran like Hanley Ramirez or Brandon Phillips is going to make a meaningful difference on this roster. There’s also no reason to stunt the growth of a top prospect like Peter Alonso by promoting the 23-year-old to this mess of a roster. Last and certainly not least, there’s no reason imaginable for Tim freaking Tebow to even be on a list of candidates to be considered for a promotion to a major league baseball team. By that process of elimination, congratulations to Ty Kelly on your promotion to the big club! – Adam Kaufman

Peter Alonso

With Yoenis Cespedes, Juan Lagares, Todd Frazier, etc. out of the lineup, a promising righty bat in the 23-year old Rumble Pony, Peter Alonso, would be more than welcome. I totally understand wanting to have him play every day when he first comes up, but in all honesty, his numbers in Triple-A warrant a starting gig over the ancient Adrian Gonzalez. In 168 at-bats, Alonso has mashed .333/.459/.637 with 14 home runs and a reworked swing. It’s time to give him a chance. Get rid of the aging Reyes and make room for the future. – Tyler Oringer

Photo credit: Aaron Doster – USA Today Sports; photo illustration: Kate Feldman

What’s fun is extrapolating Mets stats from their historic small-sample stretch. Like this: “Winning at an 11-1 rate over a 162-game season would produce a 148-14 record.” Or this: “Met catchers are on pace to hit 13 triples this season, more than all but one player (Charlie Blackmon) hit in 2017.” In that spirit, the BP Mets staff will gaze into their crystal ball and project…

The Team’s Dollars Spent on DL players

As of Saturday, the Mets had spent $2.9 million on disabled players. David Wright accounts for two-thirds of that total, but the Todd Frazier signing proves the Mets have no plans for Wright to play again (and we know the team recovers 75 percent of Wright’s salary under an insurance policy while he remains injured). So while it looks like the 2018 Mets have spent more money on the DL than any team except the Giants, exempting Wright’s cost puts the Mets toward the bottom third of the league.

Granted, this one seemed more promising before the 25-man roster was stripped of both its catchers over 48 hours. But still. Michael Conforto is back and raking, the starting staff (sans superfluous Jason Vargas) is shoving, and the bullpen is thriving despite Anthony Swarzak’s absence. The 2018 Mets have always been a bet on health. If the new training staff can keep its players upright all season, minimizing DL dollars lost, they could be in for a run to rival the 108-win 1986 World Series team. — Scott D. Simon

Amed Rosario’s Strikeout Rate

Much was expected from Amed Rosario when he received the call to the majors last season. The Mets’ shortstop of the future ranked eighth on our main site’s 2017 top 100 prospect list, but Rosario disappointed with the bat to the tune of a .248/.271/.394 triple-slash. Perhaps even more troubling was the 28.8% of Rosario’s at-bats that ended in a strikeout, which was more than 10% higher than his minor league career K-rate. Through his first 43 plate appearances of the 2018 season, Rosario’s K-rate is sitting at 32.6%. It’s a troubling trend for the young shortstop that limits his upside as a hitter, especially considering the lack of power he’s shown thus far. I think it’s reasonable to expect Rosario to get his K% down to about 23% by the end of the season, which would be a huge boon to his batting average and on-base percentage. Rosario exhibited terrific bat to ball skills throughout his years in the minors; it’s only a matter of time until it translates to the majors. — Alex Rosen

Brandon Nimmo’s OBP

Through April 9, before a controversial demotion and subsequent return to Flushing in the wake of a catching collapse, Brandon Nimmo put up a .600 OBP, including four walks in just 15 plate appearances. A .600 OBP on the season would put him behind only Barry Bonds’ 2004 in the record books. It would beat Ted Williams’ 1941 and Babe Ruth’s 1923 and Mickey Mantle’s 1957. A .600 OBP would make Nimmo a legend. He’s not that, probably. He’s almost assuredly worse than Bonds and Williams and Ruth and Mantle. He’s not a .600 OBP guy. But he deserves a chance to prove that. — Kate Feldman

Noah Syndergaard’s Zone Percentage

Our friend Noah Syndergaard hasn’t been at his sharpest to this point in the season. Interestingly enough, before Sunday’s start, Syndergaard had thrown just 32.1% of his pitches in the strike zone despite a career average around 47%. For a guy with as much talent and confidence as anyone, it’s more than a bit surprising to see that he’s seventh lowest in Zone% in the majors, despite Mickey Callaway’s constant encouragement for his pitchers to “be aggressive in the zone.” Perhaps it’s just a bit of rust or a case of Syndergaard being too cute, but it’s easy to envision that number jumping back up to his career norm by the end of the 2018 campaign. — Adam Kaufman

Jay Bruce’s Defensive Stats

There’s lots of fun to be had with small sample size numbers, but you can probably have the most fun with defensive metrics, which can be completely ludicrous without sufficient data inputs. As of Friday, Jay Bruce stood out in particular with a -60.5 UZR/150 in 93 innings of play in right field. For reference, the worst outfielder season on record by UZR/150 was Brad Hawpe in 2008 with the Rockies, who posted an obscene -44.7 in 1,172 innings. What’s more, it took Manny Ramirez around 4,000 innings to accumulate -60 career UZR. So basically, UZR/150 is saying that 150 games of Bruce at this rate would be about as valuable as 4,000 innings of Manny in your outfield. Oof. — David Capobianco

Michael Conforto’s OPS

Quick trivia! How many times has a Met completed a full season with an OPS over 1.000 (min. 500 PA)? Once. In 56 years of franchise history, only Mike Piazza has cleared quadruple digits, finishing 2000 with a robust 1.012 mark. A week ago, Michael Conforto had a 1.021 OPS in over 16 plate appearances. We’re doing this exercise primarily to illustrate the preposterous nature of small-sample sizes, so while it’s irresponsible to say Conforto will sustain this mark based on 16 turns at the plate, I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility in general. Conforto had a .939 OPS in 440 PA last year. He’s now a year more disciplined at the plate with as much pop as he’s ever had. And if Mickey Callaway continues to sandwich Conforto at leadoff between a position player and Yoenis Cespedes, he’ll typically have the upper hand on opposing pitchers before even seeing a pitch. – Jordan Rabinowitz

Mets’ Catchers’ Stolen Bases Allowed

While the Mets have provided critics barely anything to complain about through their first 13 games, the trend of allowing stolen bases has continued. Travis d’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki allowed 12 of 13 runners to successfully steal before their injuries.  The current roster has weak-armed Jose Lobaton, who has permitted 79% of baserunners to steal successfully in his career (in addition to two already this season), and an inexperienced Tomas Nido. Sandy Alderson and staff may take this opportunity to go out and upgrade a position that has been weak for the Amazins for quite some time now.  If a trade is not made or a veteran is not signed soon, look for the Mets’ abysmal number of stolen bases allowed to continue to rise. – Tyler Oringer

Steven Matz’s Home Run Rate

As of Sunday morning, Steven Matz’s HR/FB rate was 30.8%. That means almost one out of every three fly balls allowed by Matz this year have gone over the outfield wall. Let us assume he holds those fly ball and home run rates throughout the season, and we will, perhaps foolishly, project him for 150 innings (he has never surpassed 145). In this scenario, he will allow 43 home runs this season, which is just seven shy of the major league record. Of course, when Hall of Famer Bert Blyleven allwed 50 home runs in 1986, he did so in 270 innings pitched. Were we to project Matz to throw 180 innings with this rate, he’d allow 51 home runs. I love to see records fall, but this is one I could do without. — Zane Moran

The Bullpen’s Strand Rate

The Mets entered Sunday’s game against the Brewers with a 1.62 bullpen ERA, the best in baseball. Last year the Mets’ bullpen – with a lot of the same guys – posted an NL-worst 4.82 ERA. Mickey Callaway comes from the Indians’ innovative school of intelligent reliever usage, so maybe he’s brought better performance from Cleveland. However, the biggest thing going for the pen right now is luck. The Mets have stranded an astounding 98.7 percent of opposing baserunners so far; average pitchers only strand around 73 percent of opposing runners. It’s reasonable to expect the Mets’ bullpen to be above average at stranding runners all season, since they are one of the best at striking hitters out. But even the best bullpens end up below an 80 percent strand rate for an entire season.  — Noah Grand

Yoenis Cespedes’s Strikeout Rate

Yoenis Cespedes has struggled in 2018 despite the Mets’ overall success. He’s striking out over 40 percent of the time (as of April 14).  Unfortunately, his high strikeout rate for could continue throughout the season. Opponents are attacking him with changeups and fastballs while relying less on cutters, sliders and curveballs. This change in approach has knocked Cespedes off his game. He is swinging more at pitches both inside and outside the strike zone but making less contact. His contract rate is down from his career average of 77 percent to 69.4 percent, while his swinging strike rate has jumped to 15 percent. We’ll see the rest of the season if Cespedes can adjust his approach. If not, expect to see this abnormal strikeout rate continue. — Seth Rubin

Photo Credit: Steve Mitchell – USA TODAY Sports

But what if 2018 were the brightest timeline? The storybook would feature a first-time manager with a forward-thinking approach, a free agent who signed with his hometown nine for a discount, and a bunch of bold yet optimistic predictions coming true. At the risk of jinxing the National League’s best team to date, so far, so good. So long as we’re dreaming — the 6-1 start *is* a dream, right? — we asked the BP Mets staff to ask and answer some What-ifs? about Flushing’s favorites.

What if spinal stenosis wasn’t a thing?

David Wright was an All-Star in 2013, when he .307/.390/.514, a line that was 54% better than league average. That was his seventh Midsummer Classic appearance in eight years. Then, at age 31, Wright got old in a hurry. He stopped stealing bases, lost 140 points of SLG, and notably lost the ability to put anything behind his throws from third base. The culprit was a degenerative back condition that Wright will have to live with for the rest of his life. But what this question supposes is: What if he didn’t?

Through his first 10 seasons, Wright was a career .301/.382/.506 hitter. His seven-year peak produced 36.2 bWAR, a bit behind the pace produced by the 14 Hall of Fame third basemen. If Wright had hewed to the standard aging curve, he’d have another 15 WAR on his resume and be projected to deliver another 3 wins in 2018. Wright could well have been the next Met inducted into Cooperstown. Now he’ll have to settle for a retired number and a plaque near the Citi Field team store. – Scott D. Simon

What if the Mets were publicly owned?

After decades of PR blunders, wouldn’t it be great if the Mets were publicly owned? Years ago I imagined that the Wilpons would lose so much money from the Bernie Madoff scandal that they would be forced to sell, like the Green Bay Packers’ owners nearly a century ago. Who knows: it may be easier these days to crowdfund a Mets purchase than to find one person to buy out the Wilpons.

But what would a publicly owned team do? Would they refuse to participate in the collusion holding down free agency this offseason? Would fan-owners be asked to fork over more money for a middle reliever to replace Hansel Robles? Would the GM have to listen to #MetsTwitter’s calls to trade everybody? New owners skew towards ambitious moves or Derek Jeter-level fire sales. Maybe broad public ownership would surprise everyone by being too diffuse to make big waves, making it easier for everyone to do their jobs. – Noah Grand

What if Rafael Montero had turned into the pitcher we thought he would when he was a prospect?

It’s easy to write Rafael Montero off as a competent starting pitcher. In fact, you should do exactly that. You should have done that long before the Tommy John surgery. But for a while, he wasn’t bad. He was good. He was supposed to be better than Jacob deGrom. Imagine if Montero had been part of the Five Aces, if that legendary rotation had included one more flamethrower. It’s a weird thought, isn’t it?

Maybe Steven Matz would have been allowed to be hurt. Maybe Matt Harvey doesn’t have to try for nine innings in Game 5. Maybe Chris Flexen gets more time to develop. Prospects don’t always pan out, no matter what teams insist about a second-round draft pick that just doesn’t make signing Jake Arrieta worth it. Montero didn’t pan out. But what if he had? – Kate Feldman

What if the Mets never signed R.A. Dickey to a minor-league contract in 2010?

After throwing 64.1 mediocre innings for the Minnesota Twins in 2009, R.A Dickey signed a minor league contract with an invitation to Mets spring training. The knuckleballer would go on to start 91 games for the Mets, winning a Cy Young award in 2012 on his way to becoming one of the best starting pitchers in the game. In one of Sandy Alderson’s best moves as GM, he traded Dickey to the Toronto Blue Jays after the 2012 season for a package of players that included Noah Syndergaard and Travis d’Arnaud.

Syndergaard has developed into one of the best starting pitchers in the game as a Met, while d’Arnaud has been intermittently healthy and productive. Dickey was never able to repeat the success he had in New York, and the Mets reached the 2015 World Series with Syndergaard on the mound and d’Arnaud behind the plate.  Dickey’s success as a Met allowed the organization to build its next contender much sooner than anyone could have hoped. – Alex Rosen

What if the Mets successfully traded Wilmer Flores and Zack Wheeler to the Brewers for Carlos Gomez at the 2015 deadline?

There are so many Butterfly Effects in this multiverse. Chiefly, the Mets would’ve gotten an injury-plagued Carlos Gomez, who had an 85 OPS+ with the Astros in the second half of 2015, instead of Yoenis Cespedes (17 HR in 57 games, 155 OPS+), who supercharged the offense to such a degree that for about a week, the baseball commentariat believed he deserved to win MVP over Bryce Harper. Oh, and he led the Mets to a surprise division title and their first pennant in 15 years, and is now cararguably the Mets’ most dangerous power threat since Mike Piazza (let’s debate the merits of Carlos Beltrán another time).

Then there’s the case of the insane night where Wilmer Flores cried himself into Mets lore. If Sandy Alderson likes what he sees in Gomez’s medicals, Flores gets pulled at the appropriate juncture, sheds no (public) tears and becomes the answer to a Mets trivia question. He never even gets a chance to become one of the most indelible folk heroes in team history two days later. This is probably, not so secretly, the saddest part of this whole dystopia.

There are also the moments within these greater arcs we never get, with broad implications: Is Daniel Murphy still the same, “net negative” Met without his Ruthian postseason? Does Sandy Alderson lose his job? Are Ruben Tejada and Chase Utley friends? Question marks abound.

Admittedly, the team would be minus a Zack Wheeler and plus a Michael Fulmer, which may be the only silver lining Mets fans can enjoy in these other universes. Because what happens when the Carlos Gomez-led Mets inevitably miss the playoffs? Maybe they still sign Céspedes in the offseason and make a similar run in 2016, but who knows? The Mets we know have never been able to put it all together and ride their young, controllable pitching talent to consistent division titles, but at least they had 2015. The Mets affected by this particular butterfly didn’t, and yes, now I’m depressed. – Jordan Rabinowitz

Photo credit: Tommy Gilligan – USA Today Sports; Photo illustration: Scott D. Simon

Michael Conforto will return as good as new

Michael Conforto’s career trajectory has been a headache-inducing rollercoaster, alternating from great to terrible and back again. Then his shoulder gave out on a fluke swing and the rollercoaster came crashing down. I think he’ll be fine. It’s not about the revamped training staff (they’re not really all that revamped) or some secret medical knowledge that I got from “Grey’s Anatomy.” This is about blind faith, because Conforto deserves the chance to be a star and Mets fans deserve the chance to watch him be a star. – Kate Feldman

Seth Lugo will be the third-best pitcher in the rotation

This felt like the Mets-iest prediction for me, since it foretells unexpected success for one pitcher, while spelling doom for several who seemed like they would be lockdown starters for a generation. It’s not that I don’t want Matt Harvey to be the first pitcher to regain his truly dominant form after Thoracic Outlet surgery, or that I don’t want Steven Matz to be healthy enough to start 30 games. It’s just that I’ve been burned so many times before, I’m not willing to go out on those limbs. Seth Lugo had a fine spring, which may mean nothing, but I think he’ll be healthy and effective enough to become the team’s third most reliable starter behind Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom. – Jordan Rabinowitz

Three Mets throw 200 innings

Injuries to starting pitchers are a perpetual worry around these parts, but I’m confident Mickey Callaway and Dave Eiland can begin to stem the tide. To me, Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom are arguably the best 1-2 rotation duo in baseball and I firmly believe both will be in the discussion for NL Cy Young in the fall, although playing for the same team may hurt them when it comes to the local vote. My bold prediction centers around a third pitcher stepping up to give this team significant innings and consistency, and while I’m not willing to commit to a name, I think several guys could be candidates. Jason Vargas was brought here to be stabilizing presence in the middle of the rotation, Matt Harvey looked promising in the spring and has the motivation of being in a contract year, and Seth Lugo is a fan favorite of mine who could become a potential wild card on this staff. – Justin Mears

The Mets bullpen is a strength

The Mets have been plagued by mediocre, bad and just plain awful bullpens for as long as anyone can remember and on the surface, there’s not much to suggest that this year will be all that different. Jeurys Familia had a rough spring, their lone offseason acquisition is a potentially fluky Anthony Swarzak and Jerry Blevins’ status as the sole lefty ensures that he will hit 70 innings pitched by July.

But ‘tis the season for boldness, and the Mets are finally showing something new: depth. They sold off half the roster last season for a song and a bevy of young arms and they don’t need a sky-high success rate to strike gold on at least a couple of them. Jacob Rhame pitched himself onto the Opening Day roster with impeccable control and the hard-throwing Tyler Bashlor may not be far behind. When the injuries come – and they will come – the Mets have solid options lined up instead of another season scraping the bottom of the roster barrel. This is going to be the year fans don’t have to fear the reliever. – Maggie Wiggin

Matt Harvey will have an ERA of 3.70 or below this season

I’m going to be honest here: there really isn’t much in the way of numbers that back this prediction up. Matt Harvey was one of the worst starting pitchers in the league last season, but I believe that 2018 will be the year “The Dark Knight Rises.” Now almost two years removed from his surgery to relieve thoracic outlet syndrome, Harvey enters a contract year in 2018 looking to rebound. New manager Mickey Callaway has talked about changing Harvey’s mechanics, and I’m buying it. Expect those changes to result in an ERA below 3.70 on the heels of an improved K/9. – Alex Rosen

Matt Harvey gets traded by August 15 for small return

Less than three years ago, Matt Harvey was the ace of the New York Mets. Today, a shell of his former self after thoracic outlet surgery in 2016, Harvey will look to rebound in 2018. Unfortunately, his predicted performance is poor and with pressure from Jason Vargas, Robert Gsellman and Zack Wheeler to take that fifth spot in the rotation, Harvey will likely be out of a spot by mid-August. As a free agent following this season, the Mets should look to move him at the trade deadline or during the August waiver period just to get any kind of return either in the form of cash or a low-level prospect. – Seth Rubin

The Mets will make the World Series

So, you’re thinking, in what world do the Nationals-Cubs-Dodgers triumvirate cede control of the National League in the 2018 playoffs? In the best of all possible worlds? Maybe that one, but certainly in one that echoes past happenings: the Nationals failing to win a postseason series, the Cubs continuing their regression from the stratosphere and the Dodgers finding themselves against a superior pitching staff. All three teams are great so this is a huge ask of probability, to say nothing of the need for the predictions from my fellow staffers coming true. But as long as you make the postseason, you’re uniquely positioned to benefit from the chance that, however small, it all lines up in your favor. – Brian Duricy

No Met will accumulate 600 plate appearances

I considered this a bold prediction until I did a modicum of research and learned that no Met accumulated 600 plate appearances last year, either. (Sorry. I’m sorry. I’m trying to remove it.) Last year’s leaders were Jose Reyes, who played in 145 games and came to bat 561 times, and Asdrubal Cabrera, with 135 and 540, respectively.  Injuries killed the 2017 team’s chance at contention, along with the injured players’ ability to reach 600 PA. That in turn led to trades of the relatively healthy Mets like Curtis Granderson and Jay Bruce before they reached the milestone.

My “bold” prediction that no Met will collect 600 PA doesn’t anticipate another rash of injuries. It’s that there are too many outfielders to expect any one of them to play every day and too few competent infielders to expect any one of them to last the entire season as the starter. This is at heart a prediction that Amed Rosario’s .271 OBP in 2017 is for real, and that he’s going to end up back in Las Vegas. Sorry, Amed. – Scott D. Simon

The Mets win 90 games

Backed by two 20-game winners and Cy Young contenders in Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard, the Mets rotation wind up staying remarkably healthy for bulk of the season and buoyed this club on its journey to the top Wild Card slot. Resurgences from Michael Conforto and Yoenis Cespedes carry the offense, while consistent production off the bats of Jay Bruce and Todd Frazier keep their offense in games all summer. Amed Rosario takes the next step to becoming the star we believe he will become. Unfortunately, somehow Ray Ramirez returns in a consultant role and still manages to permanently ruin the arms of Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler. – Justin Birnbaum

David Wright will get playoff at-bats

This prediction is a two-fer of sorts, because it assumes the Mets make the playoffs and David Wright is healthy enough to join them there. Wright will likely never play a significant on-field role again for New York due to his age and spinal stenosis, but he sure will try. It would be mildly unsurprising if Wright never saw another pitch at any level, but to see him healthy in the postseason one final time would warm the hearts of Mets fans that have canonized him as the greatest third baseman in franchise history. – Zane Moran

At least 10 pitchers start games for an above-average rotation

When the Mets signed Jason Vargas to a two-year, $16 million deal, they showed a commitment to adding and using depth to the rotation. Vargas’ bounce-back 2017 may not be sustainable (he’s projected at -0.2 WARP), but he’s currently slotted as the No. 5 starter after a short DL stint. Zach Wheeler was sent to the minors after dragging his poor 2017 in to Spring Training. This means Seth Lugo will get the first shot at what I expect to be a rotation in constant flux. Ten starters seems shocking, but it shouldn’t be. The Mets used 10 starting pitchers in 2015 and 2016, flipping through minor leaguers to fill rotation holes until someone found short-term success. They probably have the depth to fill the rotation again in 2018. – Noah Grand

Zack Wheeler will return strong… as a reliever

I am ready to try something new with Zack Wheeler; hopefully the Mets are too. The 27-year old, who was reassigned to Triple-A Las Vegas ahead of Opening Day, has the talent, but the control and health just simply haven’t been there.

This has been my feeling for quite a while.  His run-in with Tommy John, his consistent lack of command – it rubs me the wrong way. However, he has always had top level stuff.  Look at guys like Archie Bradley and Wade Davis who made the switch.  Davis, especially, was moved there at age 26 after struggling as a starter and look where he is now.  He always had the stuff, but not the control.

Of course, this depends on another bold prediction: The current Mets rotation will stay healthy.  But that’s for another time. – Tyler Oringer

Photo credit: Joe Nicholson – USA Today Sports

The mess of 2017 is now behind us. For some, we’re already into next season. For others, that phrase is reserved until at least spring training. Either way, that graph proves that Mets fans have been waiting for next year since before the trading deadline. Is there anything worth anticipating in 2018 besides a .500 record before the first pitch on Opening Day? Yes, and here’s what we’re waiting for. — Scott D. Simon (@scottdsimon)

Travis d’Arnaud Finally Putting It All Together

This is probably the third or fourth season in a row that I’ll be predicting a breakout from Travis d’Arnaud. He’s already an above average catcher — yes, a .263 tAV and solid framing gets you there as a catcher these days — and he’s once again flashing signs of more, hitting more home runs in September than in any other month in 2017.

Caveats about the diluted talent of September rosters aside, I think there’s a chance d’Arnaud can make these improvements stick. Catchers often have a slow, sinuous development path, and d’Arnaud’s has been slowed even further by his frequent injuries. Perhaps after a relatively healthy 2017, d’Arnaud taps into the offensive potential that made him the centerpiece of two trades for former Cy Young pitchers and becomes one of the better catchers in baseball. — Lukas Vlahos (@lvlahos343)

Terry Collins Departing For Greener Pastures

While he has generally gotten good reviews as a clubhouse manager and his in-game management is not significantly worse than that of most MLB managers, the end of the Terry Collins Era (the longest of any manager in team history) will help the team exorcise some of the demons of 2017 and begin 2018 with a clean slate. Whether they go the tried-and-true route with Bob Geren or commence a youth movement with Alex Cora (the latter, if you please), the Mets need a fresh voice. Will the new guy (or girl – we can dream!) be an improvement? Possibly not – a cursory look across the league suggests Collins was roughly middle of the pack – but the potential is there, especially if they go with an outside-the-box option like Cora or hitting coach Kevin Long. Collins, to the outside observer, had trouble reigning in strong personalities like Syndergaard, and his lineups frequently favored veterans at the expense of overall productivity. But at the end of the day, it’s simply time for a fresh approach, untainted by the bitter memories of a dismal season. — Maggie Wiggin (@maggie162)

Jay Bruce Returning To The Mets

Like any team going through a transition year, the Mets dumped their expiring veteran contracts. I can’t say I was thrilled with shipping Jay Bruce off to Cleveland, but I understood the rationale (kind of). In a season plagued by injuries (I’ve probably written this phrase 500 times since April), one of the few bright spots was the consistent offensive production of Jay Bruce. When you combine a healthy Michael Conforto and Yoenis Cespedes with Bruce, you have the foundation of a pretty formidable Major League lineup. If the Amazins are going to challenge the Nationals for NL East supremacy in 2018, they’re not going to do it by relying on Juan Lagares, Brandon Nimmo, Gavin Cecchini, or any of the other fringe players that could be forced into starting roles. Sandy Alderson has to be aggressive in free agency and bring in a proven big bat. What better choice than a guy who’s already withstood the bright lights of New York City and performed admirably? Hey Sandy, let’s open the checkbook and reopen the New York chapter of Jay Bruce’s career. — Justin Birnbuam (@birny53)

Jay Bruce Not Returning To The Mets

No disrespect to Justin, but Brandon Nimmo just posted a .300 tAV over 200-odd plate appearances. Small sample size sure, but it’s better than the .298 mark that Jay Bruce posted during his 2017 Mets tenure. That speaks to the difference between Bruce’s .321 OBP and the elite .390 OBP that Nimmo produced. Is that sustainable? Who knows. Is it worth giving the 24-year-old former first-round pick first crack at an outfield spot over a 30-year-old Bruce? My sources say yes, even without considering what’s likely to be a nine-figure difference in salary.

Re-signing Bruce would mean that one of Michael Conforto and Yoenis Cespedes have to play center field on a regular basis. They’ve both expressed a preference for — and demonstrated far better defensive performance — in the corners. Bringing Bruce back buries Juan Lagares, the team’s only true center fielder. Lagares led the team in FRAA despite appearing in fewer than 100 games. A platoon with Nimmo in center, with Lagares getting extra playing time as a defensive replacement and spot starter against lefties, sounds like the most efficient distribution of resources. I’d much rather see the Mets spend $15 million on a quality starting pitcher or non-Jose Reyes second baseman than on Jay Bruce. — Scott D. Simon (@scottdsimon)

David Wright Getting Healthy

Of all the injury comebacks that the Mets are hoping for in 2018, David Wright’s stands alone as both the least likely and the most welcome. Seeing the captain back in uniform would fill fans’ hearts with joy and Sandy Alderson’s depth chart with a spot he doesn’t have to spend additional money on. The 2017 season ended with the Mets’ clubhouse in shambles, and having Wright’s presence among what will likely be a young roster will work wonders for Terry Collins’ successor. Aside from the emotional and financial benefits to be gained from Wright’s improbable resurrection, we shouldn’t forget that there’s still a very real chance that he could make a meaningful baseball-related contribution if he can find his way back onto the field. — Adam Kaufman (@adamkaufman315)

Michael Conforto Playing Every Day

Back in 2013, Curtis Granderson fractured his right forearm after being hit by a pitch during Spring Training. He came back in May, but got hit by another pitch and fractured a finger in his left hand. People wondered if he was too big of an injury risk for the Mets to offer a four-year, $60 million contract. Granderson hasn’t been on the disabled list since.

When I looked at predicting injuries earlier this year, time spent on the DL with a more serious injury wasn’t a big risk factor for hitters. Mets fans should feel confident that Michael Conforto will be able to come back from his shoulder injury, too. And next year, he won’t have to fight for playing time like he did the last few seasons now that the Mets have traded away outfielders. — Noah Grand (@noahgrand)

Photo Credit: Jasen Vinlove -USA Today Sports

*****

justinbirnbaum
The most important trade is the acquisition of the We Follow Lucas Duda instagram account by TB.

noahgrand
Granderson didn’t get enough back

justinbirnbaum
I forget who tweeted it, but I really like “A Snapchat To Be Named Later”

kateefeldman
Okay well that’s the headline of this now

justinbirnbaum
I can die happy now.

noahgrand
is too old for snapchat

kaufmana315
You know who isn’t too old for snapchat? 23-year-old Drew Smith!

kateefeldman
Man you’re good

justinbirnbaum
That’s an excellent segue if I’ve ever seen one.

lukas.vlahos
I thought the Duda trade was good. Nothing particularly amazing, but the market for rental bats was freaking terrible (just look how little J.D. Martinez, a legitimate offensive star got). Drew Smith has a live arm, decent minor league results, and should reach the majors when rosters expand or early next season. It’s also the right kind of play for the Mets to target, they need RP depth and they should be going for it in 2018/19.

noahgrand
Did Mets retain any of Duda’s salary?

kateefeldman
Pretty sure the Rays picked all of it up
Which fits with history

noahgrand
That’s what I thought

lukas.vlahos
It’s just a boring trade. Smart, but boring. I’ll miss Duda though.

kateefeldman
It was a necessary trade
I was a little worried they were going to hold on to him

justinbirnbaum
Who would have thought that Lucas Duda would crack the top 5 bats traded at the deadline.

kateefeldman
So to me it boiled down to “get whatever you can get”

kaufmana315
It’s a real shame that it’s going to take a Duda trade for most Mets fans to grasp just how Good a player he was for us

justinbirnbaum
^

noahgrand
Agree, but Rays don’t have a ton of cash in the vault. I always wonder if mets 9or any other team) could eat sunk cost of contracts they trade away as a long-term investment.
(or any other team)

kaufmana315
As a form of essentially buying prospects you mean?

noahgrand
Yes. Easy to say since I’m not paying, of course.

kateefeldman
I mean, you have to assume that if they were to take on money, they’d be able to get back bigger names
But the Rays (or whoever else) very well could have turned around and said never mind

lukas.vlahos
I look forward to fans extolling Smith’s mostly empty batting average as better than Duda. (That’s too harsh on Smith I know)
justinbirnbaum
I wonder what the world would look like if the Mets had successfully extended Duda around the time they did the same for Lagares.

kaufmana315
The painful truth is that Lucas Duda is probably something like the 80% outcome for Dominic Smith’s career, no?

noahgrand
Lagares (via Cot’s): 15:$528,696, 16:$2.5M, 17:$4.5M, 18:$6.5M, 19:$9M, 20:$9.5M club option ($0.5M buyout)
That could look meh, but off topic?

justinbirnbaum
Duda was asking a similar amount if I remember correctly?
And then extension talks broke down and never picked up again

kaufmana315
So Dominic Smith would be a trade chip at this point?

noahgrand
Don’t remember what Duda wanted…and he was 28 for his first arbitration season so that hurts his leverage for longer term deal I think.

lukas.vlahos
I would have been on board with a Duda extension and would rather have him starting at first next season than Smith, but the timing just doesn’t work out, and they need Smith to be a cheap contributor in order to have a shot next year

noahgrand
Duda got 1.6375m, 4.2, 6.725, 7.25 his last four years (all avoiding arbitration)

kaufmana315
Thoughts on what he gets as a FA in the winter?

lukas.vlahos
3/45? Back issues will hurt him I think

justinbirnbaum
16-18 over 3/4 if he finishes strong with Tampa

kateefeldman
Depends if he’s looking to stay on the field, probably too, right?
It’s a weak market again

noahgrand
It’s not strictly Duda vs. Smith. It’s Duda + other roster spot vs. Smith + at least $10m more to spend on that roster spot.

kaufmana315
Keeping in mind that Encarnacion got 3/$60 I can’t see Duda more than 2/$30-$35

noahgrand
I’m probably low contract estimate on Duda because of health, questions on whether he stays in field, not checking enough to know if there’s another bat surplus and he gets left in musical chairs.

kateefeldman
Well Noah hits another point there: in theory, saving the $10M difference between Smith and Duda _should_ get spent elsewhere
Because that’s going to be a cheap infield with Flores and Rosario
And whoever else they rotate in

lukas.vlahos
One could argue they’ve already spent it on Ramos.

kateefeldman
Before we move on to Ramos (although that was the perfect segue), anyone have actual thoughts on Smith?
The pitcher not the first baseman

joshburton
Gonna be saving a lot of money on Granderson/Cabrera/possibly Walker too

lukas.vlahos
Yeah writing up a trade with two D. Smith’s related to it was annoying. I do like Smith, Javi had a very positive writeup on the main site and his minor league numbers are nice, though I wish he had more upper minors experience at 23.

kateefeldman
That’s fair. Although there’s room to move up quickly since there’s literally no one blocking him

noahgrand
I hear Vegas is lovely this time of year!

kaufmana315
One vote here for getting him some MLB innings in Sept. to give the front office an idea of how much he can be counted on in ’18

kateefeldman
Think he’s ready?
Or is it a “might as well” situation?

kaufmana315
Does it matter?
Yeah…

kateefeldman
I’ve been saying that about Rosario for two months at this point. But we’ll get to that later
So the other sale was Reed, which was, one could argue, the other _necessary_ trade
And I think that one looks a little underwhelming too, although we all could have overestimated the market…again

justinbirnbaum
Obligated Sandy Alderson is a baseball maverick by acquiring Ramos and cornering the market statement

kaufmana315
Don’t think we overestimated the market actually. Was reported that as many as 10 teams had interest. Hard to believe that this was the best offer fielded with all of the suitors.

noahgrand
I think he tried to corner the market like I used to do in certain video games…and failed.
(Like I did)

lukas.vlahos
I think my opinion here may tend too far into general strategy, so feel free to move it there if you want. The return was fine given the market, but underwhelming considering what could have been. Familia and Reed are arguably as valuable as Miller and Chapman last season, and the Mets’ and Yankees’ situations weren’t so different. Cashman recognized his team was mediocre and capitalized on a fantastic seller’s market. Sandy limped a mediocre team into the wild card game, then sold in one of the worst seller’s markets of the decade.
tl;dr – the return was fine for this year, but garbage when considering the bigger context. I think I like Smith more than any arm the Mets got for Reed.

justinbirnbaum
I agree with Lukas

kateefeldman
I think saying Familia/Reed and Miller/Chapman are comparable is pushing it a bit…

kaufmana315
Don’t think it’s completely fair to say with hindsight that Sandy should have sold last season either.

noahgrand
Exactly
Also we don’t know when he got the OK to sell this year.

justinbirnbaum
The return was underwhelming, but for an expiring contract dealing with overusage and a sketchy medical, getting a deal done with a decent return in a bad market was the right ply

lukas.vlahos
I think we can debate the merits of selling last year in general strategy portion of this, but I was beating that drum very loudly at the deadline last year as well.

kateefeldman
The medicals brings up an interesting point because that caused a bit of a hesitation this morning
And we saw (I forget who) some reports that GMs were hesitant because of overuse
Which, yeah, me too

noahgrand
Mets and medicals…I know I’ve written about that before…

justinbirnbaum
Well in a greater context, the Mets bought Reed low and sold him for a better return than they sent for him
The problem is that due to the timing the context is the Ramos trade

lukas.vlahos
Just another example of Terry’s negative effect on the team. Pitching Reed multiple innings twice in a row, using him three days in a row…both are idiotic.

kaufmana315
To the untrained eye though, Reed certainly hasn’t looked fatigued despite the workload.

noahgrand
At least he traded his closer before his closer could join a mutiny. Learned from his Anaheim days.

lukas.vlahos
He’s definitely been worse this year than last. FB velo down a bit.
I think Justin makes an excellent point though – Reed’s tenure here is a huge victory. Acquired him for nothing, got 140 innings of elite reliever, then traded him for three prospects better than what they gave up to get him in the first place.

sethrub
Yeah and he will be a free agent at the end of the season where they would have gotten nothing. I think it’s better to be happy with something that could ultimately help the future

kateefeldman
Oh, Reed’s tenure in Flushing I think is an undisputed success
Which we can’t say very often
So it’s the same as Duda: it’s better than nothing

kaufmana315
Sandy mentioned at the BP meet up at Citi last month that during that deadline (Salas, Reed), they were looking for guys who had turned it around recently. and both Salas and Reed had been lights out in June 2015.

justinbirnbaum
That sounds like a jeopardy category: “Successful Tenures in Flushing”

noahgrand
Buying low on RP with some track record seems like a solid lottery ticket because the price is often so low.
Just need to sell at the right time before they turn back in to a pumpkin.

justinbirnbaum
Mets 2017 slogan “it’s better than nothing”

sethrub
But I think that’s unfortunately it. If teams don’t want to overpay for limited innings of relief pitching or of a player they are going to use sparingly and the Mets ultimately will get nothing at the end of the season, I just believe that we should be happy we got something for now. Whether the prospects work out is another story but that’s all we can hope for.

kaufmana315
Agreed, one of the main mistakes that teams like the Phillies, or Tigers have made is not fully committing to buying or selling.
I, for one, was worried that Thor’s “we are a 2nd half team” might trick some people into holding these assets and hoping for a ridiculous 50-20 stretch.

noahgrand
This team isn’t the Dodgers

kateefeldman
^^^My fear exactly
And by “people,” I mean the FO

noahgrand
FO or ownership?

kateefeldman
Do we know where that line is?

lukas.vlahos
There isn’t one with Jeff around.

justinbirnbaum
Not dumping Grandy Asdrubal Reyes Walker (basically every tradeable asset except Bruce) was a mistake

kaufmana315
Whoops.

justinbirnbaum
Even if you had to take 50 cents on the dollar

kateefeldman
I guess you see what comes back in August
And I don’t see how Walker has any trade value unfortunately
Reyes, well, yeah

noahgrand
Yeah. My point is I don’t think that Sandy has a ton of power to decide whether to sell quickly vs. try to make a run.

lukas.vlahos
All of those guys have big enough salaries to get through waivers. And Bruce is not gonna accept the QO apparently, so they’ll get an oka pick for him.

sethrub
No one is going to sign Bruce and give up a pick

kaufmana315
On topic question: Can we really feel more confident about a 2018 trio of Familia – Ramos – Blevins than we can about this year’s Familia – Reed – Blevins trio?

lukas.vlahos
No. They need to add more. They won’t though.

justinbirnbaum
No we can’t
The gold standard is Betances-Miller-Chapman

noahgrand
I mean Familia is such a question mark

kateefeldman
Blevins isn’t going to be your seventh inning guy anyway
They’ll still use him as a LOOGY

sethrub
I think that’s where teams, especially the Mets need to start investing in relief pitching more instead of signing guys towards the end of the off-season

lukas.vlahos
I don’t agree there.

noahgrand
Blevins has faced 90 LHB, 50 RHB this year. Pretty LOOGY-ish.

lukas.vlahos
Relievers, despite the value of good ones, are still terrible investments because of volatility. If you’re trying to build a long term contender, you shouldn’t be dishing out big reliever contracts.

noahgrand
Agree w/ Lukas

lukas.vlahos
However, if your team is about to crash (like the Mets), you shouldn’t give a damn about the back ends of those deals, and you should go all in for them.

sethrub
Sorry. Not big contracts but more proven relievers such as Joe Smith instead of Ben Rowen

justinbirnbaum
It has to be a revolving door of talent realistically

lukas.vlahos
That is the ideal bullpen, but Jeff had a good thread on Twitter about how the Mets, for some reason, have no damn relievers in the minors.

kaufmana315
As the Nationals have proven, it’s not too difficult to make significant upgrades to a bullpen mid-season for minimal cost.

kateefeldman
But the Nats had players to trade for talent
The Mets…don’t

lukas.vlahos
Hopefully, having Callahan, Smith, and the Oregonian reliever whose name I forget will help with that and give them some options to cycle through with Robles, Goeddel, and Sewald.

kateefeldman
I still like Smoker too

kaufmana315
Nats didn’t really deal away top talent for any of those guys.

sethrub
Yeah that’s what I am hoping for. I think that’s the change we will see is more development of relievers

noahgrand
Nogosek. Yeah I looked it up. We went to same high school.

lukas.vlahos
If his shoulder isn’t shot, yeah.

sethrub
Also on the nationals. It’s great they upgraded now but I’m sure they would have preferred a better bullpen all season

lukas.vlahos
That’s kind of cool actually.

sethrub
I wouldn’t want to rely on being able to get help half-way through the season. Which is why these young guys could be very good for the Mets in the future

kaufmana315
But instead of making a 2 or 3 year commitment with big dollars, they traded mid-level prospects for proven relievers.

lukas.vlahos
So, Ramos deal?

justinbirnbaum
I was high on Merandy Gonzalez but A. An eighth inning bridge is much more important and B. What happens if Familia can’t close?

noahgrand
How panicked was everyone when they saw Mets trading for a player?

justinbirnbaum
Reed 2.0

sethrub
I was very confused at first reading that notification

lukas.vlahos
I was not panicked, but I still feel they chose the wrong reliever (already had this debate in general, forgive me repeating myself). Ramos is going to be making $10 million, which is basically elite reliever money, and he doesn’t strike me as one. Certainly a good reliever, but not worth that much.

kaufmana315
Yeah I had a little sticker shock too hearing his arb eligibility.

lukas.vlahos
If this was a team with a significant future, it’d be a very nice move, only committing one year to a very nice reliever. But as I said earlier, it isn’t. They should go out and spend on Reed/McGee/Davis for only a slightly higher AAV and better performance. Who cares about the back end.

justinbirnbaum
Not to ruin everyone’s night but Gio Gonzalez has a no-no going lol

sethrub
Well I guess the Nats won’t need to worry about the bullpen tonight

kaufmana315
Mets: “We’ve acquired 5 lottery ticket minor league relievers!
Nationals: “Our fourth starter is throwing a no-hitter”

noahgrand
The Nats will always worry about the bullpen

justinbirnbaum
^^^

kateefeldman
I’m not a fan of Ramos and the price tag is high, but he’s better than…Paul Sewald, eighth inning guy?

kaufmana315
Let’s play this game again: What does Reed get in FA?

justinbirnbaum
Paul Sewald eighth inning guy gives me hives.
2 at $7M? I feel like Reed will not come close touching $10.
Blevins-ish money

sethrub
Ziegler got $8 million per year

kaufmana315
Seems light to me. He’s only 28. Guess I’d have preferred to trade him away then resign.

noahgrand
Who knows what Reed’s medicals look like at the end of the year?

lukas.vlahos
If Reed gets that little A – I will be astounded, B – the Mets should 100% bring him back

justinbirnbaum
In MLB the Show 17 he asks for $4.5 million when he hits FA
Not that that matters lol
I lowballed him based on his medical

sethrub
Although at either of those prices he’s cheaper than Ramos

kaufmana315
Someone is going to offer him a closer job this winter, and the Mets won’t be able to do that.

kateefeldman
Keep in mind that he has #closer status now
Okay Adam beat me

kaufmana315
^

sethrub
True. But will a team really pay him to close?
I guess the white sox paid for Robertson

lukas.vlahos
I am going to beat the Trevor Cahill drum as a starter, which should push Wheeler and/or Matz to the bullpen.
I’d also like to see them pursue David Hernandez.

kaufmana315
I could see the Rockies & D-Backs as suitors for him.
(Reed that is)

sethrub
But would reed go back to the d-backs? They messed him up

justinbirnbaum
I think Zack Wheeler to the ‘pen is definitely a solid play.

lukas.vlahos
Cubs will need a new closer.

kateefeldman
Well before we move guys to the bullpen, I have no idea what the 2018 rotation looks like
Syndergaard is MIA, Matz is always hurt, Gsellman…I literally don’t even know

lukas.vlahos
Thor, deGrom, Harvey, Matz, Wheeler, Montero, Flexen, Gsellman, Lugo, (Cahill if I get my wish)
Throw that group at the wall and see what sticks. Move two of them to the bullpen, perhaps not immediately, but at some point during the season.

noahgrand
See how many are healthy at any one time.

justinbirnbaum
Our worst nightmare will come true and it ends up being Thor

davec
*parachutes in*
Speaking of Lugo, I wouldn’t have minded if they seriously explored trade options for Lugo, or any non-Thor starter.

kateefeldman
The health is what always scares me, and moreso with this group
Let’s save deGrom trade talks for a bit later
Because I need to prepare to get really sad about that

davec
Lol okay

lukas.vlahos
On Ramos, he’s just underwhelming to me at that salary. He’s 29 in FIP over the last four years, 25 over the past three.
And noticeably worse the last two years.

kateefeldman
Mostly the walks scare me
Especially with the defense behind him

lukas.vlahos
Yes, pitching to a terrible framer hurts him, but he’s never had any control whatsoever.

kateefeldman
Well I meant the infield, but that too

davec
Feels like it has Salas-ian bust potential

kaufmana315
I too see some similarities between Ramos and Salas unfortunately

both prone to the HR as well

kateefeldman
Well Salas was good! For a while! Until…Terry

noahgrand
Got to know when an RP’s streak is up. Terry doesn’t have that skill.

davec
Those first two weeks in April this year were special

noahgrand
Gio headed in to 9th btw

kateefeldman
Yup Noah’s exactly right
Playing the hot hand and also not overplaying relievers
We saw that this year with…everyone

davec
Tyler Clippard sends his regards

noahgrand
That’s why you need more than a starting bullpen’s worth of players.
Well, injuries mainly (also rotation)

sethrub
Well if you move a player such as Wheeler or Gsellman to the pen then you can at least get more innings

kateefeldman
I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I miss Logan Verrett

noahgrand
No
NO NO NO
Had to recap him way too much

sethrub
But players such as him are useful

kaufmana315
Generally speaking, the Mets can’t plan on having SPs move to the bullpen. They don’t have 5 healthy arms now, they can’t count on them next year either.

noahgrand
And now the Nats have to worry about the bullpen

kaufmana315
If they actually have 6 or 7 healthy starters pitching well at the same time, that’s when you can think about shifting someone to the bullpen.

davec
And that’s why the Ynoa trade made no sense
Went from Gsellman to bad Montero right to Tyler Pill.

kateefeldman
This is where Jeffrey normally pops his head in

davec
That’s not depth

noahgrand
And Mets got nothing for him. Just a bit of cash and clearing a roster spot. See why I keep going back to ownership being cheap.

kaufmana315
$10 million AJ Ramos waves hello

noahgrand
But ownership has always been cheap on the minor moves. Which does things like kneecapping the team’s depth.

davec
And they don’t pay for anyone in trades, which limits the return
Which might’ve impacted the return for Reed, and might be why Asdrubal Cabrera is still a Met

noahgrand
Watching the Nats…now that Doolittle is in DC…I wonder if anyone has told him there used to be a Congressman named Doolittle.

kaufmana315
Hey, no Nats-watching in BP Mets trade roundtable!

noahgrand
Just Nats trolling!

davec
But then they’ll blow a QO on a Walker or Bruce or give Cuddyer a two-year deal. The team can spend money, but only a very finite amount, and they’re not as efficient with it as they probably can be.

lukas.vlahos
Should we mention Rosario, or was that not on our agenda?
Oh, this front office is _awful_ at building a contender.

kateefeldman
Let’s leave Rosario to the end so we can finish on a happy note

lukas.vlahos
They’ve had one legitimately good offseason, when they swung Niese for Walker and got Cespedes back. No, I don’t hold Daniel Murphy against them that year, because that was totally unpredictable.

jpaternostro
Did someone mention Gabriel Ynoa

kateefeldman
The Paternostro siren goes off again

lukas.vlahos
Jesus f–king christ haha.

davec
His Ynoa senses were tingling

lukas.vlahos
Jeff’s got a server of bots trawling the internet for any mention of Gabriel Ynoa

kateefeldman
So I guess the question now is the moves they didn’t make, which we touched on a little before
Cabrera, Grandy, Bruce
Even Blevins, although that’s a little different
I expected at least someone to go

lukas.vlahos
Walker – not surprising, he’s hurt
Granderson – should have taken whatever the Brewers offered
Bruce – it’s fine, he’s gonna decline the QO. More problematic is that they want him back for some idiotic reason
Cabrera – I don’t get this one

kaufmana315
I don’t mind holding players like those guys as long as it doesn’t impact the playing time of Conforto & Rosario
If there was no market, there was no market. But we all know Conforto is going to be on the bench more than a 24-year-old All Star should be

lukas.vlahos
The last one is odd to me specifically because they bitched all this time they couldn’t bring Rosario up because Cabrera would be a cancer, but now all of a sudden moving him to third is enough to fix the issue?
Oh you’ve been on the Collins train long enough, you should know it’s gonna impact their playing time.

kaufmana315
I think he’s come around on Conforto actually. We’re going to have to go through this all over again with Rosario I’m afraid.

noahgrand
Cabrera has a 2m buyout on his club option. How many teams would be willing to just take his contract if it was available on waivers?
Let alone giving up something for him
Not sure what market was for him

lukas.vlahos
I’m surprised there wasn’t a team to take him if the Mets’ paid his buyout. He’s bad at short, but not totally unplayable, and is still a league average switch hitter at up the middle spots.

noahgrand
Lukas: Who has a specific need?

kaufmana315
Mets likely weren’t trying to pay his buyout this time around, see what they can do in August instead.

lukas.vlahos
Indians MI is beat up. The D-Backs MI isn’t exactly great, and Owings just went on the 60-day DL. The Nationals have zero bench depth, though they got Kendrick and Turner should be back.

sethrub
True and he would be a good fifth infielder option

noahgrand
Thanks. I was blanking on that.

lukas.vlahos
What’s the Yankee’s depth behind Castro and Didi? Or the Red Sox options behind their infield?

kaufmana315
Red Sox just got Nunez

lukas.vlahos
If the Mets paid his salary, he’s a legitimately good bench infielder. They shouldn’t pay him $8.75 million to do that next season, but some team out there should have thrown them a RP flier their way for that.
Oh, fair on the Red Sox.
Forgot about that.
But again, dependent on the Mets paying salary and the buyout. And who knows if they were gonna do that.

noahgrand
Then again, he could still be traded.
It doesn’t have the pure “what the heck just happened?” of designating Edgin for assignment without lining up a trade.

kaufmana315
I think we’re overstating how often players have their contracts paid down. It happens for super expensive guys (Justin Verlander & co.), but rarely does a utility infielder come with money.

kateefeldman
But if the Mets threw in a million?
They could have actually gotten something rather than hoping for waivers
And a million isn’t real money

noahgrand
To a baseball team. It’s certainly real money to my bank account!

justinbirnbaum
Can I take these imaginary millions to the nearest casino?

kateefeldman
Listen, I just had to put down a security deposit for my apartment. I get it
But for the Wilpons, not so much

kaufmana315
IMO, most of the value of trading Cabrera would have been:
1. Don’t pay his salary in 2017
2. Don’t pay his buyout
3. Open roster spot
4. Easier Rosario transition

lukas.vlahos
Well, an extra reliever flier (which is the realistic return) would have been useful.
To steal Jeff’s point from twitter, the Mets have f–k all for relievers in the upper minors.

kaufmana315
Right, but nothing beyond that. He’s been worth -0.2 WAR this season.

kateefeldman
It all comes back to our motto for the night: it’s better than nothing
Except for now, it is nothing

justinbirnbaum
Trademark pending

kaufmana315
This is one of those situations that WAR is perfect for. In theory, every team has a replacement level player who should provide more value than Cabrera down the stretch.
Obviously there’s more that goes into it, but it’s not hard to see why there weren’t any takers.

noahgrand
Thus my initial question of whether anyone would just claim him if they could.

lukas.vlahos
If they don’t, cut him.
Better to give Rosario / Flores / Cecchini / whoever might contribute next season more playing time

kateefeldman
Okay so let’s play that game: what’s the 2018 infield?

davec
I think they view Cabrera as a legitimate option for next year

kaufmana315
Lukas good point. I’d also argue that we should take a hard look at Cecchini.

lukas.vlahos
How much do I get to spend in free agency?

kaufmana315
Is he AAAA-player or could he play a Ruben Tejada role?

kateefeldman
Do we think Cecchini is good?
Because I don’t think I do

kaufmana315
We should probably find out.

lukas.vlahos
He’s not.

kateefeldman
Yeah, I give him 2017 to find out
But I don’t think it turns out like we’d like

noahgrand
Is Matt Reynolds going to remind anyone he’s on the team?

kaufmana315
Matt Reynolds is absolutely a AAAA-player

lukas.vlahos
that depends, is he going to develop any useful skills?
Anyway, if I had my way I’d sign at least one of Moustakas and Walker. Realistically it’s just Walker, so you’re looking at Flores – Rosario – Walker – Smith, with a bench of Rivera and Reynolds.

kateefeldman
I think I take Reynolds over Cecchini?
Maybe?
For now?

lukas.vlahos
I think Reynolds is better at short, so give me Reynolds.

kateefeldman
I’m going with Walker at second
I also think he’s cheap

kaufmana315
Ok no cheating here: Guess how many PAs Cecchini has in the majors?

kateefeldman
50

lukas.vlahos
He’s got like 30 now right?
Or are you asking what he’ll wind up with for his career.

kaufmana315
Right now, we’ve seen him take 21 plate appearances.

davec
I think I’d take a beaten-down Cabrera as the sixth infielder over Reynolds

kaufmana315
Way too early to make any judgements

kateefeldman
God is that really all?

lukas.vlahos
He’s putting up a .307 wOBA in Triple-A and has no skills to complement an okay hit tool.
He’s not good.
kaufmana315
I can get on board with that.

kateefeldman
Unfortunately, I think they bring back Reyes

lukas.vlahos
If Collins is the manager and Reyes is on the team, I’m done.

noahgrand
Why do you think they bring back Reyes?

kaufmana315
I don’t think Reyes is getting anything more than a minor league deal.

noahgrand
Because Mets?

kateefeldman
Because Mets and #OldFriends and I am a pessimist at heart

kaufmana315
He’s been among the 20 worst players in the MLB there’s no reason to guarantee him anything next year.

kateefeldman
He’s cheap and they know him

davec
This team is properly infatuated with him and apparently he still moves the needle ticket/mercy wise
*merch

kateefeldman
Man I had some questions there

noahgrand
I figured he must be moving needle and that’s why they keep promoting him

kateefeldman
There is also a chance that they just don’t get it
Which is entirely possible

lukas.vlahos
I mean, Reyes was my favorite player when I was little, but even without the DV issues I’d be sick of him getting promoted because he’s just fucking awful.

davec
Really how he finishes the season will be important. If it’s April-May again he won’t be back, but if he’s like a 90 wRC+ bat down the stretch then I legit think he’s back

lukas.vlahos
Market Conforto. Market deGrom. Hell market Flores, IDGAF. Not a washed up, shitty, former star who has major off the field issues to boot.

kaufmana315
So let’s see here… without any major acquisitions, the infield looks like this:
1B: Smith
2B: Rivera
SS: Rosario
3B: Flores

lukas.vlahos
Which is awful.

davec
That’s el brutto

kaufmana315
I don’t have a huge problem with that, I have a bigger problem with one injury turning Matt Reynolds into a starter.

lukas.vlahos
They need to add at least one infielder. Walker is a perfect fit really, Rivera can caddie him against lefties too if he doesn’t bounce back.

davec
Still not at all comfortable with Rivera as a starter

kateefeldman
If Walker’s healthy, I really think he’s the right move

lukas.vlahos
I’d like to see them give Stephen Drew a shot.

kateefeldman
He’s not getting anything on the market with his back

lukas.vlahos
As a bench bat. Can back up short, is a lefty bat to complement Flores / Rivera / Rosario.
So you could sign Walker and Drew pretty cheaply, run out Flores / Rosario / Walker / Smith and have Rivera / Drew on the bench.

kateefeldman
I’d take that

kaufmana315
Other FA infielders of interest: Eduardo Nunez, Zack Cozart, Mike Moustakas

kateefeldman
I don’t know that Drew doesn’t get a better offer though

lukas.vlahos
He won’t get a starting offer, but yeah.
Nunez is bad, Cozart is gonna be overpaid because he can be a starting shortstop somewhere and the Mets don’t need that.
kaufmana315
Why do we want Stephen Drew again?

davec
Oh no. The Stephen Drew to the Mets speculation has returned.

lukas.vlahos
Backup SS, lefty foil as a bench bat. I’m not married to the idea, but if he’s cheap I’d take it. Better than Matt Reynolds sitting on the bench I think.
The way I look at it, they have room for one big free agent bat. We all know it’s gonna be Bruce but let’s pretend it isn’t for a minute.
I’d say choose one of Cain, JD Martinez, and Moustakas.

kaufmana315
He’s better than Reynolds, sure. Not better than Rivera or Flores though, who I’d rather have as bench bats.

kateefeldman
I still have no idea what to think about Rivera

lukas.vlahos
Well, in that scenario, Flores is your starting 3B.
Also, if your bench is Flores / Rivera, you have no backup SS.

kaufmana315
*whispers* Flores was the SS for like all of 2015 including the World Series

kateefeldman
That doesn’t mean he should have been

lukas.vlahos
Do we _really_ want to relive FloreSS?

kateefeldman
Not for a playoff team

davec
Well FloreSS was the situation the only time this team has seen real success in the last decade
So

noahgrand
Doesn’t mean Flores @ SS caused the success

kaufmana315
2015 Flores: 835 innings, -2.5 UZR -10 DRS
2017 Cabrera: 386 innings, -4.7 UZR, -9 DRS
Just saying

davec
I’m being facetious, though I think people overestimate how bad he was once he got comfortable there

noahgrand
Can I get SS who can field option C?

kaufmana315
Flores’ struggles as a shortstop were overstated in 2015

lukas.vlahos
That’s a fair point, it’s not the worst idea if he’s the backup.
My fear is Rosario struggles and Flores has to step in full time.

kaufmana315
Gotta run everybody, it’s been fun!

lukas.vlahos
Though I guess if Rosario struggles that badly, the team is doomed anyway.

noahgrand
Does it make sense for Mets to continue emphasizing bat-first infield and punt fielding if they are signing more infielders?

kateefeldman
I don’t think the Mets care about defense whatsoever

lukas.vlahos
Rosario will help a ton. I think Walker is a solid defender. Moustakas would be nice on defense too.

kateefeldman
Well, if they’re only making one big FA signing, I’d prefer a center fielder
It’s going to be Bruce though

davec
Who though?

lukas.vlahos
I’m just not that interested in investing big money in 32 year old Lorenzo Cain.

kateefeldman
And there’s the rub

lukas.vlahos
I’d rather leave Conforto in CF and sign Martinez or sign Moustakas and grab a platoon CF with Lagares (who I think is continually undervalued).

kateefeldman
I don’t even know if Lagares is alive right now

lukas.vlahos
Give Jarrod Dyson a small deal, platoon him with Lagares, stick them in the 8 spot. That’s elite defense and slightly above league average offense from CF.
Patch the infield with Moustakas and Walker, add two pitchers on the cheap, go from there.

kateefeldman
You just spent a hell of a lot of money

lukas.vlahos
They have $50+ coming off the books.

jpaternostro
I just finished recording a two hour podcast with a Jarrod Dyson stan and now I come here

lukas.vlahos
Didn’t think that idea would be popular, heh.

kateefeldman
I didn’t know there was such a thing as a Jarrod Dyson stan

jpaternostro
They are gonna play Conforto in CF everyday and it might actually be fine, or at least Jarrett sort of convinced me it won’t be awful

lukas.vlahos
I am okay with that, but then they’re gonna bring Bruce back and the infield is left unfixed.

jpaternostro
Well for an org that clearly doesn’t care about defense it won’t be the worst thing they have done at least
That is happening Lukas

lukas.vlahos
Oh I know, and it makes me want to shoot myself.
They’re gonna piss away the last chance they have with this core with a garbage infield

kateefeldman
Yeah but Rosario is pretty and shiny or something, right?

jpaternostro
I mean if they sign like Moustakas and play Flores and Smith on the right side it’s going to be well down the list of issues.
The fact that they have exactly two healthy starters for 2018 is a pretty inextricable obstacle

lukas.vlahos
If they bring back Bruce and Walker, things will be at least okay. Rosario will improve the defense a bunch.
Or I hope he will.

kateefeldman
It can’t be worse

lukas.vlahos
They should be pushing all in though, and signing starters isn’t really feasible, so might as well go for position players.

jpaternostro
Their only real option is to build a high variance 85 win team, which they have done successfully for three years basically
The variance went negative this year

noahgrand
Agreed

kateefeldman
The injuries didn’t help though, and I don’t know that it gets any better next year

noahgrand
Sandy needs to learn about the 10 day DL and stop seeing it as a last resort

kateefeldman
Someone asked him about that at the BP event and he said the team uses it exactly as it should
I almost cried I was holding in my laughter

jpaternostro
It’s literally a 10-day DL

lukas.vlahos
He is not as smart as we gave him credit for early on.

jpaternostro
Part of the problem there is they don’t really have great 40-man position options

lukas.vlahos
Maybe the next time they rebuild (in 3 years), the new GM can point to the Astros / Cubs and convince the Wilpons to go nuclear.

noahgrand
They’ve made some…unusual 40-man roster moves right?

jpaternostro
They really don’t like DFAing guys or churning the backend of the roster generally
Again part of this issue is one of depth. The Yankees aggressively do this, the Yankees also have literally ten+ viable upper minors arms
They are basically selling them off for IFA pool money and Jaime Garcia at this point because they don’t have the 40 room
The Mets have to go get Indy ball arms to fill those same spots in Bingo and Vegas
Which is one of the reasons they sold (and bought) at the deadline for RHRP

lukas.vlahos
Kate, just try not to cry too much when editing this rambling, pessimistic mess haha.

kateefeldman
I’m literally not editing this at all, so you’re good
It’s almost too late to figure out the 40-man though, right?
Like you can’t just decide to stock up one day and then it’s fixed

lukas.vlahos
You could always just not draft like garbage?

kateefeldman
Well if it’s that simple
I mean, it’s not like they’re trying
It just…hasn’t worked
I guess let’s wrap this up on the happy news of Rosario’s call-up

lukas.vlahos
Well, maybe Jeff can shed some light on this because I don’t get it.
They go from “Cabrera will bitch too much” to “oh, we just moved him to third, so it’s fine.”
Calling bull on that. So did Sandy get to read Terry the riot act or something? What changed so that they could assure Rosario playing time all of a sudden.
Also interesting that Sandy, in the press conference, specified Rosario was playing SS. Reinforcing a message to Terry? Sounded like it to me, but I’m probably just projecting my hatred of Terry onto things.
It’s not like he’s any more ready, and there’s not a huge service time benefit unless they plan to hold him down for half the season next year too, which they pretty clearly don’t.
See Kate, I just took your happy concept and had a pissy take on it. My power is infinite.

kateefeldman
I have so much faith in you, Lukas
Has anyone looked at attendance numbers recently?

noahgrand
I’m just standing back and watching you burn it down

kateefeldman
I think there’s a chance they need the publicity
There’s no reason to go to Citi anymore
Like, it’s literally just Conforto and Cespedes
And that’s not really a draw
So Rosario brings you a gate

noahgrand
DeGrom day?

kateefeldman
Jesus, I literally forgot about him
So there’s three guys

lukas.vlahos
Except Cespedes can’t hit for whatever reason right now.

kateefeldman
I’m choosing to believe that’s just a weird fluke
Jarrett and I were actually talking about Sandy v. Terry earlier in terms of Rosario and he rudely pointed out that there’s really no way to force him to play Rosario

noahgrand
Well Terry has been forced out due to a player revolt once in his career…
You think Sandy has any real authority to say “play the kid or you’re fired?”

kateefeldman
Well, it’s probably his job officially. Whether he actually gets to do that is a different question

noahgrand
Exactly. You seemed to be implying Sandy doesn’t have that authority…

kateefeldman
Well, no physical way to force him. Other than threatening his job (and then there’s the question of who takes over), Terry’s in charge of the lineup

noahgrand
Not quite Mike Scioscia getting GMs fired in Anaheim though

kateefeldman
Not quite
I assume that if Rosario’s up, he’ll play
Feel free to make fun of me in a week when he’s pinch-hit twice

lukas.vlahos
Ownership just telling him he can’t fire Terry, so he can’t do s–t.
And Terry is just terminally incompetent.

kateefeldman
I thought we were going to get away with ending this happy and not with an angry Lukas rant
Anything else anyone wants to add?

davec
To end it on as happy a note as we can, just remember that Rosario flopping is something that this org will take years to recover from
Enjoy baseball

kateefeldman
Thanks, Dave

Photo credit: Kelvin Kuo – USA Today Sports

In one short month, the Mets have gone from Sandy Alderson proclaiming “A lot of the story [is] to be written,” to a resigned general manager sighing, “I think we have to be realistic about where we are” and “I don’t want to whitewash this. We haven’t played very well.” Most of that underperformance can be attributed to an injury epidemic that’s infiltrated every corner of the roster. The rest is that Jose Reyes and Rafael Montero suck. Whatever the cause, the 2017 Mets have played half their schedule, and they’re 38-43, nearly as far out of first place as they are close to the NL East basement. Worse, they’re just as far away from the second wild-card spot.

The competitive part of the Mets’ season has ended.

Yet the Mets’ competitive window remains open. The 2018 rotation will feature Flushing’s favorite pitcher, When Healthy. Other guys like Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz, Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman might also make some appearances.

With Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto as offensive building blocks, the top-level talent is there for a 2018 return to prominence. That’s why the next two months may be Alderson’s most important since he became @MetsGM after the 2010 season.

The catchphrase is “retool, not rebuild.” If the Mets trade their veterans on expiring or short-term contracts for pieces that will slot into next season’s lineup or bullpen, the 2018 story could look a lot different than this year’s. Here, then, is the Mets’ inventory for a potential #FireSale that looks more realistic by the day. — Scott D. Simon (@scottdsimon)

Addison Reed

Perhaps the most valuable piece that the Mets have that they’d actually move at the deadline, Reed is a known late-inning commodity that every team would like. Finding the right fit and right return could be challenging, but I agree with Jeff and Jarrett that a prospect floating around the edges of the BP Top 100 list sounds about right. So with the surprising Milwaukee Brewers needing more ‘pen arms to support a questionable pitching staff, I think they could be a nice fit, and perhaps High-A outfield prospect Trent Clark could be a return. Clark has question marks about future power production, but can likely hit for average and has speed. With the Brew Crew already possessing lots of young outfield talent, they could afford to part with him to snag an establish relief ace. — Bryan Grosnick (@bgrosnick)

Lucas Duda

Lucas Duda is a pending free agent with a pulse, so the Mets will be taking calls on him. Since becoming the full-time first baseman in 2014, Duda’s 129 wRC+ ranks 25th in baseball (min. 1000 PAs) and he’s on track for the best season of his career. With Dominic Smith waiting in the wings, it’s unlikely the Mets would re-sign Duda, so he’ll be an attractive piece to any team looking for lefty power at first base or DH.

Jerry Blevins

You’ve read above why Reed should be on the move. Much of the same logic applies to dealing Jerry Blevins. Blevins has been very, very good: Here is a list of the eight best left-handed relievers (by FIP) who have thrown at least 60 innings since the start of 2016:

Chapman and Miller are signed to eight-figure contracts. Britton received downballot MVP consideration last year, and will almost certainly sign for close to Chapman’s $86 million over five years when he hits free agency after the season. Then you have Blevins making $5.5 million this year with a 2018 club option for $7 million. That’s a bargain — and it justifies the Mets seeking more than just a fifth outfielder or C-minus prospect in return.

Maybe the Mets could flip Blevins and Reed to the Diamondbacks for Ketel Marte. Arizona already has four infielders — Chris Owings, Jake Lamb, Brandon Drury, and Nick Ahmed — under team control for next season and beyond, so it’s worth flipping their backup infielder for a huge bullpen upgrade. For the Mets, Marte, who’s hit .338/.391/.514 in Reno this year, with a 34:25 strikeout-to-walk ratio, could start at second base when Neil Walker is traded or departs as a free agent, or he could back up Amed Rosario at short. — Scott D. Simon (@scottdsimon)

Rene Rivera

I know, I know. 33 year old backup backups with a career .268 on base percentage are usually why you trade for an upgrade.

Alexa isn't doing shit for your catcher situation pic.twitter.com/Ik6feSJNPt

— Jeff Sullivan (@based_ball) June 29, 2017

But Rivera was a 1.5 win player as a backup last year. He’s on pace to duplicate that performance this year. Now let’s take a look at the eight teams most likely to make the playoffs. The Nationals have two below replacement catchers. Arizona regularly uses Jeff Mathis, a much worse version of Rivera. Colorado is using a converted second baseman who ranks poorly behind the plate. Cleveland and Boston are each getting 0.8 wins combined from all their catchers – the same as Rivera has given the Mets as a backup. Let the bidding war begin! After all, what would symbolize the absurdity of 2017 more than good teams outbidding each other for the services of a 33-year-old backup? — Noah Grand (@noahgrand)

Jay Bruce

The Mets’ crowded outfield has been a problem since last offseason, when they picked up the option on Jay Bruce’s contract, then signed Yoenis Cespedes. In an otherwise-lost season, the Bruce signing has paid dividends: he’s second on the team in bWARP at 1.9. But with his contact expiring at the end of the season, the time to trade Bruce is now.

The Mets’ could try to convince the Yankees to use Bruce as a first baseman and DH in addition to right fielder. While Bruce has played limited innings at first base for the Mets this year, the Yankees need to replace the struggling Chris Carter. He could also spell Aaron Judge and Clint Frazier in the outfield. Although Bruce doesn’t have veto rights, he should welcome the opportunity to hit tons of homers over the right field wall and a chance at the playoffs.

If a Bruce-to-the-Bronx deal happens, the Mets should not expect to receive any of the Yankees’ top prospects. Instead, the Mets can aim for a pitcher such as Dillon Tate, who the Yankees received in 2016 for Carlos Beltran, or an outfielder such as Billy McKinney, who has struggled recently but could be given more of a chance to play in the Mets’ system. The Mets will get nothing for Bruce once the offseason arrives, so they might as well try to get whatever they can right now. — Seth Rubin (@sethrubin)

Neil Walker

Despite the hamstring injury that has sidelined him for the past few weeks, Walker is having another great year and, like a bunch of other Mets, is set to be a free agent this offseason.

With a .270/.352/.468 slash and nine home runs in just over 200 at-bats, the 31-year-old can definitely bring something to a contender needing a second baseman. The Rockies, whose D.J. LeMahieu is dealing with a groin issue, could be a trade partner should LeMahieu require a DL stint.

The defensive numbers aren’t great for Walker — like for the rest of the Mets’ infield — but his bat would fit into any lineup, as would his reputation as a good teammate. A possible turnoff to a deal is that the acquiring team would need to pick up a prorated portion of his $17.2 million qualifying salary, however. For a contender with a hole at second base, that could be a deal worth making. — Joshua Burton (@Josh_Burton1)

Jacob deGrom

Hear me out for just a second. I know deGrom has been pretty much the only thing the Mets have going for them these days, but there’s an argument to be made that his trade value has never been higher. Since his 8-run blowup in Texas, he’s won each of his last 4 starts with a 0.84 ERA over that span.

The Astros are clearly in the market for an ace, and that need might have just gotten a bit stronger with David Paulino being suspended 80 games for using PEDs. They have a slew of guys working their way back from injury (Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton, Collin McHugh), but could use an ace like deGrom to help take them deep into the postseason.

The Mets would be wise to take advantage of a team in dire need of pitching, while selling high on their own guy. Here’s what the deal could look like:

Astros receive: Jacob DeGrom, Dominic Smith

Mets receive: Alex Bregman, Francis Martes, Daz Cameron

— Adam Kaufman (@adamkaufman315)

Asdrubal Cabrera

Putting aside his reported (and then retracted) trade request, it makes sense for the Mets to move on from Asdrubal Cabrera with Amed Rosario waiting in the wings. Cabrera isn’t the smooth defender he once was, but a recent move to second base could give the twilight years of his career a second life.

The Mets could match up for a Cabrera trade with the Angels, who currently find themselves 1.5 games out of the Wild Card despite receiving little to no production at second base. With a team option for 2018 on the table, Cabrera could fetch a middle-tier prospect from the Angels like OF Trey Montgomery, or RHPs Abel De Los Santos and Elvin Rodriguez. — Justin Birnbuam (@birny53)

Fernando Salas

Salas is a free agent after the season, so any future value derived from the righty will likely come through trade. Unfortunately for the Mets, he has struggled this season. The walks have been an issue, but some of his peripherals suggest he has pitched better than his ERA. If a team thinks they can reign in his control, they may look to acquire him at a reduced cost. Most contenders will look to reinforce their bullpens before the deadline, but those that have especially struggled in the pen are the Nationals, Twins, and Rangers. Mets fans should not expect any kind of impact talent in a trade, but perhaps Salas could be packaged with one of their more attractive pieces to sweeten the return. — Zane Moran

Curtis Granderson

Traded, along with $3 million, to the Chicago Cubs for RHP Thomas Hatch and RHP Dakota Mekkes

I would like to start off with a disclaimer here that I am not entirely sure the Mets trade Curtis Granderson. I think he is the sort of veteran that the Mets would like to keep around as they sell off other pieces at the deadline and potentially re-sign in the offseason. However, I’m going to operate here under the assumption that the Mets trade him to a contender and give him a chance to contribute to a playoff contender in his age 36 season. Unlike every other rental that could be traded at the deadline, I believe Granderson, and only Granderson, stands a decent chance of re-signing with the Mets this winter even if he spends the last few months of the 2017 season with a different club. With that in mind, I believe one of the strongest fits for Curtis might be the defending World Champion Chicago Cubs.

With the demotion of Kyle Schwarber, struggles of Jason Heyward, and overall underperformance of the Cubs, Chicago could be in the market for a veteran corner outfield bat, specifically a rental. Granderson, a free agent this coming winter, would be an ideal fit for the Cubs and could hit at the top of their order as they look to recover from a dismal first half.

In Thomas Hatch, the Mets would be acquired a polished starting pitching prospect who the Cubs selected in the third round out of Oklahoma State in 2016. The 6’1″ righty boasts a low-mid 90s two seamer and a potential plus slider. While his upside is not too dreamy, he has a decent chance to become a major league starting pitcher and perhaps a middle of the rotation starter if it all works out. Dakota Mekkes, the second piece in the deal, is a reliever who has an ERA south of 1 in his first full professional season. The 2016 10th round pick has been able to achieve this despite a largely mediocre arsenal and lackluster control. His fastball averages out at around 91 mph and is complemented by a high 70s curveball with below average spin and a low 80s changeup with decent sink. However, his 6’7″ frame and deceptive delivery give him a chance to continue to manage his way to success at higher levels of the minors. — Skyler Kanfer (@skylerkanfer)

Photo Credit: Brad Penner – USA Today Sports