Starting Position Players

• Travis d’Arnaud – C
• Lucas Duda – 1B
• Neil Walker – 2B
• Asdrubal Cabrera – SS
• Jose Reyes – 3B
• Jay Bruce – RF
• Curtis Granderson – CF
• Yoenis Cespedes – LF

Nothing here jumps out as a surprise. We miss you, Captain, but no one expected David Wright to open the season as the team’s third baseman; the infield is precisely how I imagined it. Cabrera, Walker, and Duda are currently upright and functional, so they are definite starters. As catcher, I’ve marked d’Arnaud as the starter here–even though he won’t be catching Noah Syndergaard on Opening Day–since I still imagine he’ll get a slightly higher share of the plate appearances behind the dish so long as he remains healthy. (You already know how I feel about TdA’s potential performance in 2017, so I hope he gets every opportunity in the first two months of the season.)

The outfield is a talented, veteran mess. Cespedes is the everyday left fielder, full stop. No problem there. But with Juan Lagares opening the season on the DL, Granderson will start every game in center for the foreseeable future. Not only does this team not have a viable backup center fielder behind him, he’s not much of a viable center fielder to begin with. Granderson is a good egg and a fine bat–perhaps still the team’s best bet as leadoff hitter–but his range and arm in the outfield isn’t ideal. When combined with Bruce and Cespedes, there’s an argument that this is the worst defensive outfield in all of baseball. (Though the Athletics have an argument.)

And I’m not trying to play the devil’s advocate here, but I do think that–given the mistakes the front office has made in designing the roster–there’s a decent argument that Bruce should start in right field regularly over Michael Conforto. Yes, Conforto is likely the team’s second- or third-best player. But starting him over Bruce may create a big schism in the clubhouse, and the Mets need to find some way to manage egos and showcase Bruce so they can perhaps move someone later on in the season. If the Mets can sit each of Duda, Bruce, and Cespedes once per week, that will give Conforto three starts per week … enough to “get him going” and prove that he’s a high-end offensive threat. If Terry Collins is willing to give him at least that much playing time–no sure thing!–plus defensive and late-game replacement time for Cespedes and Bruce, that could be enough plate appearances to balance his development, the team’s egos, and winning … at least until the next injury crops up. And by June or July, Conforto must be getting five starts a week.

Bench

• Rene Rivera – C
• Wilmer Flores – IF
• T.J. Rivera – IF
• Michael Conforto – OF
• Ty Kelly – OF/IF

Rene Rivera and Flores are no-brainers: one is the prototypical defense-first backup catcher slightly miscast in more regular duty, while the other is an impactful right-handed bat who can cover all four infield positions without embarrassing himself. Honestly, between Flores and Conforto–who I’ve covered plenty already above–the Mets could at least contend for the not-at-all-coveted title of “best fifth-infielder / fourth-outfielder combo in baseball.” (Sorry, Javy Baez and Albert Almora!)

T.J. Rivera and Kelly are a different pair of animals, as both of them are likely role 40-45 players who likely don’t have the highest ceilings of anyone who could make the team; I’d argue that Gavin Cecchini and Brandon Nimmo are better major-league players right now. However, Rivera is a contact machine and another right-handed bat on a team that needs them, so he’s basically crack cocaine to Terry Collins. (Spoiler alert, he’s not likely to run back his 2016 big-league performance.) As a switch-hitter and play-everywhere utility guy, Kelly can do everything … but not all that well. He’s not a plus defender and he’s certainly not a plus hitter, so his best role is to wait around as an emergency plug-in and get precious few opportunities. He’ll probably leave the team when Lagares is ready to return.

Starting Rotation

1. Noah Syndergaard
2. Jacob deGrom
3. Matt Harvey
4. Zack Wheeler
5. Robert Gsellman

It’s beautiful, and I’m not just talking about the hair. Everyone in this rotation–save Matt Harvey in the early goings–looked sharp in spring, and Wheeler looks healthy enough for the team to grant him an early spot in the rotation. Gsellman may already be the third-best starter in this rotation, and I’m a little disappointed he hasn’t slotted into the fourth slot instead of the fifth. Yes, Wheeler certainly has more big league experience and pedigree, but he’s also coming off injury and on an innings cap. The fifth starter gets skipped the first time through the rotation, and it seems like an easy win to push Wheeler’s debut back a week, allowing him to maybe go one week longer into the season.

I think the one thing we can all agree on is that this rotation will look very different come September and–hopefully–October. A perfect world scenario has Syndergaard, deGrom, and Harvey all healthy and ready to shove at the end of the year, but Wheeler’s innings cap and Gsellman’s rookie status may mean that they probably are out of bullets at that time. Steven Matz may be back and consistent by then, but even if he is the fifth starter may well be TBD.

(One likely note here is that the team doesn’t have a lefty starter with Steven Matz opening the season on the DL. I’m not sure it matters, but it sure is a note.)

Bullpen

• Addison Reed
• Fernando Salas
• Jerry Blevins
• Hansel Robles
• Josh Smoker
• Josh Edgin
• Rafael Montero OR Seth Lugo

And here comes the wildly mediocre Mets bullpen! There are lots of definite roles assigned: Reed as the closer until Jeurys Familia returns in late April, Salas and Robles as the primary righty setup men, and Blevins as the first lefty off the pine. Smoker has the potential to be very good and get whiffs, which leaves those last two bullpen slots. Josh Edgin is, quite frankly, a mistake. (#freePaulSewald) However, he’s a vet, the team loves vets, etc. When Familia comes back, I have to imagine he’ll get put on waivers, slide through unclaimed, and return to where he belongs in Las Vegas; the Mets probably don’t need three bullpen lefties anyway.

Then comes the long man, and the last unclaimed spot on the Mets’ roster. Either Lugo or Montero–who finally is starting to come around in Spring Training this year–could end up breaking with the team, and my money is on Montero. I even think this is the best decision. Here’s why: I think that Lugo in the bullpen would provide the best short-term performance if used properly, which is italicized because I don’t think the Mets (read: Terry Collins) are willing to use him properly. As a two-inning high-leverage reliever, Lugo could be a revelation, and as valuable as any non-Miller stopper in baseball. But I don’t buy that Collins is that creative. At the same time, I also think that Lugo is most valuable as a full-on starting pitcher, so keeping him stretched out in that role in Las Vegas is ideal–especially given what I’ve mentioned before about the team ultimately needing a fifth starter late in the season even if everyone stays mostly healthy. I think the team should hold Lugo in reserve as a five-to-six-inning starter for the back half of the season, and let the more fungible Montero be the long dude out of the ‘pen.

… but maybe Montero is good now? I don’t know. Eno Sarris of FanGraphs mentions Montero as one of the spring’s three most improved pitchers based on K-BB change from 2016; of course Spring Training stats are a ridiculous sample, and Montero’s 2016 stats were laughable. Terry Collins has commented that Montero’s old well-regarded command has started come together, and his curveball is getting swings and misses. If his strikeout numbers continue to look good as the season starts, perhaps he could become a more compelling bullpen option than even Salas or Robles. That, plus everything I’ve already said about Lugo, makes me think that he’s the better initial choice for the Opening Day roster, even if Lugo is the superior pitcher. With either guy in play, though, perhaps the Mets’ bullpen could go from average-ish to actually good. Stranger things have happened, but this is a nice microcosm of this 2017 Mets roster: perhaps deeper than expected, with some upside left. Everything depends on health, and some of the regulars aren’t necessarily ideal, but they’re well-poised to compete for the NL pennant.

(But maybe that’s the just the hope of Opening Day talking.)

Photo Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

“We’ll remember this season because of this rotation: either we’ll see a world-class collection of pitching talent for the ages or we’ll talk about how we still haven’t seen the Four Horsemen or Five Aces that we were once promised. Nothing short of sweeping the NL Cy Young finalists will ever be good enough to match the hype built up in our heads.”

Read the entire article at Baseball Prospectus–for free!–and maybe consider signing up for a subscription if you haven’t already.

Photo Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

When Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projection system rolled out for this new year, who did it pick to be the second-best position player on the Mets? That’s right, with more WARP per plate appearance than Yoenis Cespedes, that honor goes to TdA. Despite his sketchy 2016 performance, the deadly accurate wise and just projection system posits that d’Arnaud will be the seventh-most-valuable among all big league catchers. If we were back in February 2016, I might’ve been less surprised. After all, BP’s value metric WARP gave d’Arnaud credit for four wins despite just 268 plate appearances during the team’s magical 2015 run. Last year, even as d’Arnaud spent time on the shelf with a busted shoulder and couldn’t hit a lick when he was on the field, WARP took a rosier view than most, giving him 1.5 wins above replacement.

Going into the 2017 season, here is the simplest version of what PECOTA projects for this 28-year-old’s season:

To be clear, that’s projecting about 110 games at catcher, nine more dingers than last season, and an overall batting mix that corrects to a .265 True Average. That TAv is slightly better than average for any position player, and quite a bit better than what most catchers can put up. (For reference, last season only 16 backstops with more than 200 PA hit that well.)

Before we go any further, I’d like for everyone to remember one thing: PECOTA tends to be conservative, and the numbers here are referring to the 50th percentile outcomes. Yes, players will over- and under-shoot these projections, but PECOTA’s going to take the via media. In some cases, you could call PECOTA conservative, avoiding the highest highs and lowest lows. Let me just say that one more time, for emphasis. PECOTA thinks that Travis d’Arnaud being a top-10 catcher in baseball is the rather “safe” projection.

A three-win catcher is a very, very good thing. Jonathan Lucroy, generally considered one of the top three or five catchers in baseball, is projected for just 3.7 WARP in 2017 as an everyday player. But with the system only giving TdA 65 percent of the Mets’ catching reps–about 415 plate appearances–the embattled backstop becomes one of the finest twos in the game. There are three main factors that underpin d’Arnaud’s projection and each of them are open to some debate.

Defense

The first and simplest factor is defense … especially when it comes to pitch framing. d’Arnaud’s framing is the one thing that (I think) we can rely on. When TdA is behind the plate, he is going to grab extra strikes and therefore extra value, and he can do this despite receiving some of the hardest-throwing pitchers in the game. Now, there are some people that question framing’s absolute value … that is, is it really as valuable as Baseball Prospectus says it is? This is the wrong place to litigate that question, but I believe that the research speaks for itself, and the answer is yes. However, the rest of catcher defense isn’t kind to our top receiver. He’s abjectly bad at controlling the running game–the metrics at BP, scouts, and the random eye test all seem to agree–and pitch blocking isn’t his thing at all, though he made some small strides last season. Add that to the fact that he doesn’t seem to get the plaudits that Rene Rivera does when it comes to calling a game and handling the staff, and one might start to empathize with those who think that he may not be a full win better than average over two-thirds of a season when taking into account the whole catcher defense package. (I think he is, but I can at least understand the argument against.)

Offense

The second factor is offense, and this is where projecting starts to get complicated. No one thinks that Travis d’Arnaud is as bad of a hitter as he appeared last season, but videotape doesn’t lie. He was bad, and he sucked. Looking briefly at some of the stats behind his disappointing .239 True Average, we can see that one of the biggest deltas between his killer 2015 and his killer-but-this-time-we-mean-the-opposite-thing 2016 was in his rate of contact on balls outside of the strike zone.

Pitchers didn’t seem to treat d’Arnaud all that much different on the whole, pumping about 51 percent of all pitches in the strike zone, about in line with previous seasons. And while d’Arnaud didn’t swing more frequently at balls outside of the zone, he made contact with those pitches much more often. Instead of making contact on 58 percent of pitches out of the zone, he made contact with 76 percent of those pitches.

It may be crazy to think that you’d want a player to swing and miss more often, but that’s exactly what I think hurt d’Arnaud last year from a statistical perspective. Making contact on balls out of the zone can be great if you’re a scrappy squib-hitter with speed or a bat-control freak of nature like Pablo Sandoval or Vladimir Guerrero. That isn’t d’Arnaud’s game; he’s a guy with doubles-power who needs to wait for a pitch to drive and belt it. Instead, d’Arnaud’s ground ball rate shot up, and as we’ve learned over the past few years, the best way to be a good hitter is to put the ball in the air. In addition to his ground ball rate rising from 37 percent in 2015 to 52 percent in 2016, he also “barreled” only seven balls this last season (per Statcast’s metric designed to identify the best possible contact) compared to 12 barrels in 2015.

From a numbers standpoint, it would certainly behoove TdA to swing at fewer pitches outside the zone if he’s going to make poor contact like he did this past season. Hopefully this is something of an outlier, a trick of his 2016 performance that perhaps resulted from a shoulder injury that kept him from driving the ball. With rest and recovery, it’s possible that he could bounce back to a well-above-average rate of production, though a repeat of 2015’s rates is probably out of the question.

Health

For his entire career, the big question about d’Arnaud has been his health. There have been a litany of issues with his body, most recently the previously-noted rotator cuff issue, but also including injuries to his back, foot, brain, hand, and elbow. Many of these have been what we call “freak” injuries–ones that aren’t part of a chronic issue or weakness, but rather result from unplanned contact such as getting brained by a backswing or breaking a hand because it was hit by a pitch. That’s great, and it tends to give one the hope that this will be the year that he stays healthy … but there’s just as good of a chance that he’s just slightly more fragile than your average catcher.

The unfortunate truth is that d’Arnaud just doesn’t possess a history of staying healthy, and that’s the biggest indicator that he won’t be healthy in the future.  That BP projects 416 plate appearances is wonderful, but there’s a reasonable chance he won’t make it that far … after all, when you factor in minor-league time, there have only been three seasons in his career (2009, 2011, and 2014) where he’s seen that many PAs. Health factors also prevent d’Arnaud from getting the consistent playing time that would benefit his development, and allow him the comfort that many players demand in order to perform at their highest level. (This also doesn’t even take into account what might happen if he misses time with injury and Terry Collins falls in love with Rene Rivera all over again, giving away d’Arnaud’s starting spot.)

While his defense is very likely to be good, and his offense has the potential to be good, health is the fulcrum on which all of d’Arnaud’s performance rests. If he remains injury-free for a full season, terrific … I’d put good money on him reaching his 50^th percentile PECOTA projection. If he can’t–which I’d give better than even odds on happening–then floor and ceiling both dip lower than the projection system might hazard.

* * *

On a recent episode of For All You Kids Out There, Jarrett and Jeff talked a little bit (again) on how if you have a good-but-not-great team, you want them to at least be a high-variance team. That way, there’s enough upside to take you to the promised land, and if things don’t work out … hey, the drop from the middle to the basement doesn’t seem so bad. The Mets are certainly that high-variance team and d’Arnaud is certainly the team’s most high-variance player. He could get off to a hot start, push Rivera to a true backup role, hit like 2015, and most importantly stay healthy. If that happens, the Mets should be glad they didn’t trade for Jonathan Lucroy last year, because they already have a better version. (That’s right, I said it.)

But that’s not likely. That’s the 90^th percentile-plus outcome. The 10^th percentile outcome is the hitter d’Arnaud was last year, or worse, and he hardly plays because he’s bad and/or injured. There’s a three-and-a-half-win swing between the 90^th and 10^th percentile projections, but that’s probably a bit too conservative; as good as his defense is, there’s the possibility that he could be replacement-level or not even take the field.

If you listen to PECOTA, the great middle road, you should still be on the side of d’Arnaud over any other option the Mets can throw out there, as well as most everyone else on planet earth capable of donning a chest protector. If you listen to Jeff and Jarrett, you want players who are capable of greatness even if they’re also capable of breaking your heart. The PECOTA numbers don’t lie, and they don’t even dissemble–Travis d’Arnaud is still the kind of talent capable of being a top-tier talent at the game’s most demanding position. Terry Collins–not to mention every Met fan out there–has to let go of the fear of TdA becoming the player he was last season, and embrace the possibility that his middle road might be more than good enough.

Photo Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Read all about it at Baseball Prospectus.

Photo Credit: Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports

It’s a wonderful feature, and BP will be rolling these out for all 30 teams over the course of the offseason. Seriously, check these out.

Read all about it right here.

Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Baseball being baseball, and the Mets and Giants being two very weird ball clubs, there was a sense of impending ironic detachment; there was no way that the game itself could live up to the hype. Perhaps one team or the other would break it open early, and the aces would be chased before the fourth inning? But no, it was exactly what we’d longed for. Madison Bumgarner, the throwback lefty who eats innings like they are scrambled eggs and surges in October, threw nine not-quite-perfect and yet masterful innings, mixing up pitches and out-working and out-thinking each of the Mets’ hitters. And Noah Syndergaard, the hard-throwing phenom, threw seven brilliant innings, took a no-hitter through 5.7 of them, and left the game with 10 strikeouts and no runs allowed.

Read the rest at Baseball Prospectus.

Photo Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports

It seems impossible to believe, but the Mets have replaced David Wright as the team’s everyday third baseman with a minor-league free agent, and that minor-league free agent is one of the team’s 10 greatest on-field performers in history*. Jose Reyes has come in and done almost exactly what the Mets advertised he would do: he’s been something of a catalyst at the top of a once-floundering Mets lineup. As a result, it’s probably time to sit down and talk about what he’s done this season, and what that means for the team’s future.

( * – He is. But we can talk more about that some other time.)

I was against Reyes’ acquisition from the jump and I’ve made no secret of my distaste for the team acquiring someone with heinous actions on their ledger. Despite my sincere wish that he wasn’t a part of this team, it would be remiss to note that–from a baseball perspective only–this front office has completely justified his acquisition. I wasn’t sure before that adding a player like Reyes and sticking him at third base would be a performance upgrade over a player like Wilmer Flores or Ty Kelly.

It turns out that Reyes has something left in the tank, and his performance has likely outpaced what the team could have gotten from an in-house option. (Non-T.J. Rivera division.)

Let’s start by talking about his overall offensive value. In 225 plate appearances, Reyes has hit for a .324 on-base percentage and .447 slugging percentage, numbers that fall roughly in line with his career totals. Those are pretty good numbers, and Baseball Prospectus’ True Average metric currently scores him at .293–well-above league-average that sits in the .260s. According to Baseball-Reference, MLB third basemen are currently reaching base at a .333 clip, and slugging .449. In essence, Reyes has provided approximately league-average offense for his position, and decidedly above-average offense overall.

Underneath the hood, it looks like there have been a few changes to the way Reyes has been successful. First off, it certainly appears that Reyes has been selling out for power. In each of his previous 13 seasons, Reyes has kept his strikeout rate between 7.0 and 13.5 percent, but in 2016 it has spiked to 19.6 percent. His peripherals also tell us that his bat speed may be changing, as he has seen his swinging strike rate jump from a career mark of about 14 percent to this season’s 21 percent; in essence, he’s swinging at pitches and missing approximately 50 percent more than he used to. At the same time, he’s making less contact overall (79 percent compared to his career 86 percent) despite a swing rate that’s not too far out of line with his career norms.

On the positive side, Reyes is hitting fewer balls on the ground and relying less on his aging legs to reach first base. Instead, he’s increased the number of balls in the air substantially–in previous seasons he never hit fewer than 41 percent of balls on the ground, and in 2016 only about 36 percent have been worm-killers. He already has seven homers with the Mets, and that makes his “secret skill” a bit more noticeable. For years, Reyes was seen as the speed guy with the Mets, reaching base on ground balls and grabbing extra bases, but he’s always been a bigger power threat than advertised. In his advanced age, he’s now posting the highest isolated power of his career (.180), and this has made up for some of his decline in bat speed and ability to reach base with regularity.

Though Reyes can still turn on the wheels and grind out a triple with the best of them, it’s probably time to fully recognize how different of an offensive player he is from his previous incarnation. Where he used to be worth almost a full win on the basepaths due to his outrageous speed and smart baserunning, in 2016 he’s only added 1.7 runs by BP’s BRR metric. That’s still better than average, but it gives truth to the fact that he’s aging and slowing down a bit. Honestly, he’s not a top-of-the-order bat, even in the Mets’ plodding lineup. Right now, he may be the best of a host of bad options. Weirdly, the team has a lot of hitters with very similar batting lines in Reyes, Kelly Johnson, Asdrubal Cabrera, Wilmer Flores and Curtis Granderson. Of that bunch, why not hit Reyes leadoff … but he may not be the best option next season. Speed isn’t everything–OBP is!–and Reyes’s speed is starting to diminish, especially if he’s transforming into more of a power hitter.

On an aside, looking at Baseball Savant, we see that he’s making much better hard contact against left-handed pitchers these days.

He’s faced many more righties than lefties this season (174 PA against RHP compared to 51 PA against LHP), but he’s tuned up those whom he has faced. Not only has he walked more than he’s struck out against southpaws, his .471 on-base percentage and .773 slugging percentage are wildly superior to his .282 and .358 marks against right-handers. The switch-hitter has always been superior against lefties, but even if we regress this small sample, there are signs he may be changing into more of a platoon hitter as well.

From a defensive standpoint … he’s been fine, I suppose. Playing third base mostly, he seems more or less comfortable at his new position. There have been six errors (two fielding, four throwing) at the position, while he’s earned zero at shortstop in about a third of the time. But while DRS has been unkind to him (-4 runs), UZR (-0.6 runs) and BP’s FRAA (-2.0 runs total, including time at shortstop) have been less harsh. Of course, small-samples in advanced defensive metrics can be misleading, and I trust my eye test less than perhaps I should. As a result, I turned to our site’s foremost talent evaluators for their thoughts on Reyes’s shift from six to five. Jarrett Seidler offered this up: “Good hands, decent instincts, fringe range, good arm strength, fringe arm accuracy. Plays way better overall at shortstop than third. Would consider him average or slightly above at third.” Jeff Paternostro echoed Jarrett’s sentiments, though he gave him an overall grade of “average” at the position.

Really, that’s not too bad for a player getting his first real time at the position, even if he is a converted shortstop and the expectations should be high for a conversion. I have to think that with a Spring Training and partial season under his belt, Reyes will be able to maintain his defensive adequacy into the next season or two; I’m not so naive to think he’ll improve as he ages, but if he can remain average defensively, that’s a big factor in him retaining surplus value for this franchise. A bad defensive third baseman really needs to hit if he can’t play defense–a shift down the defensive spectrum requires improved offense, and the Mets are unlikely to have open holes in the corner outfield or at first base anyway. An average defensive third baseman–with the occasional ability to back up in the middle of the infield–just has to hit like an average third baseman to be average. And average isn’t average for this Mets team, at Reyes’s cost. Average is good.

I’m still very uncomfortable with Reyes playing for this team, but the Mets can’t possibly care about that. This is a team that is more than willing to play a PR stunt or two if it means making a quick buck … even if there’s the possibility it disrupts the on-field product or alienates part of the fanbase / organization. Given who the Mets have in the organization, and all the question marks that come with names like Yoenis Cespedes, Neil Walker, and David Wright, it’s hard to imagine that the Mets wouldn’t want him back for next season. (Seriously, for a likely playoff team, there are a lot of uncertainties.) I’d like to see and hear more public contrition from Reyes. I’d really like to see the man use the playoff stage to discuss his mistakes and how people can be more proactive about preventing domestic violence. Maybe he’ll man up and do that, someday.

Until then, he’ll probably hit a little.

Photo Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

In the interest of getting ahead of myself, I’d like to take this time to make an educated guess about the roster the Mets might have to compose if (not when!) they were to make the playoffs. I’m not entirely certain that the team that the Mets face will dramatically affect their roster construction … but we’ll get to that later. With the WC game on October 5–and hopefully the Mets’ NLDS battle against the Cubs on October 7–we can expect the team to go full-out in order to maximize winning this one single game, then worry about the Cubs later. Most WC playoff teams go with a 16/9 split–nine pitchers and 16 position players–on their 25-man roster, and I think that’s what the Mets do as well. However, they are a team that I could also see leaning on a 10th pitcher if need be.

Barring injury, this my expectation as to who makes the Mets’ 25-man Wild Card Game roster.

Starting Pitcher

• Noah Syndergaard

There’s no chance it’s anyone else, right? If the timing lines up like I think it does, then Thor pitches on September 19, September 24, September 29 or 30, and then is ready to go on October 5 in the WC game. Even if deGrom and Matz were perfectly healthy, Syndergaard is going to likely score a top-three Cy Young finish, and he’d be a tough hack for the Giants, Cardinals, or any other team the Mets might have to face in a one-game playoff. He is, in fact, The Man.

Extra Starting Pitcher(s)

• Jacob deGrom (or Steven Matz)
• Seth Lugo

Here’s where it gets tricky, and we get to play the “what the heck is going on with the Mets’ pitchers” game. One has to assume that, even if deGrom or Matz make their unlikely comebacks, the team may be hesitant to throw one of the walking wounded out in Game 1 of a NLDS. Bartolo Colon and Robert Gsellman are more than likely the team’s additional starting pitchers for the playoffs in addition to Thor. But, I have a little faith that Stetson’s Finest will be able to at least throw a relief inning or two as he works his way back up to full health. Under the best of circumstances, maybe deGrom will be stretched back out enough to be a factor in the NLDS. Even then, I could certainly see him active for this Wild Card game. On the other hand, neither deGrom or Matz may be healthy here. If that’s the case, I’d expect Gabriel Ynoa to fill in.

(Later Friday Update: deGrom is now scheduled to start on Sunday, September 18. Hooray! That would certainly put him in line to pitch in the Wild Card game, or Game 1 of the NLDS.)

Lugo is probably the right combination of rested and effective to back up Syndergaard in case things go south in a hurry. I like him as a two-inning reliever in case Syndergaard is gassed or getting hit around and the Mets want to go to the ‘pen early, or as an insurance policy in case the game goes to 14 innings. His 2.40 ERA belies his 4.47 DRA, but I’d rather see his curveball than anything Logan Verrett has to offer these days.

(Sunday Update: deGrom is done, needing ulnar nerve surgery and out for the year. Time to play Gilmartin-Ynoa roulette!)

Relievers

• Jeurys Familia
• Addison Reed
• Jerry Blevins
• Josh Smoker
• Fernando Salas
• Hansel Robles
• Jim Henderson

A couple of these are easy, the rest are hard. The top six relievers here all feel like no-brainers: Familia and Reed are the nightmarish one-two combo that the Mets need from the right side. From the left side, Blevins has been crazy effective and Smoker gets strikeouts like Jack Leathersich was supposed to. Robles has been Terry Collins’ default for much of the season (62 appearances!), while Salas brings “veteran experience” but has also been killer in his eight innings with the Mets so far. They’re all in.

Henderson probably gets in on the strength of his story and veteran-ness, even though his last four outings with the Mets have been something like hot garbage. (Most of his season has been bad, but maybe you pop him in to get one key strikeout?) I’d probably rather have Sean Gilmartin here … even though he hasn’t been good either … because he gives the team another lefty to throw, and can eat three or four innings compared to Henderson who would likely struggle to go one. But we’re talking about the last guy at the back of the bullpen here–if either is pitching in the Wild Card game, chances are that the Mets have already lost it. And, of course, if anyone above gets injured, I have to imagine he’s the next guy up.

Catchers

• Rene Rivera
• Travis d’Arnaud
• Kevin Plawecki

If the Mets are smart, I’d certainly see them rolling with three catchers for the big game. This allows the team to start d’Arnaud against the Cardinals and Rivera against the Giants; d’Arnaud’s oft-criticized arm wouldn’t matter against the Cardinals and their NL-worst 32 stolen bases. (Yes, I know Thor is bad at slowing down the running game, I’ll still take Travis’s bat.) If Rivera does have to start, at least the team can use TdA as a pinch-hitter in a critical position, and Terry won’t have to worry about an emergency catcher due to the presence of Plawecki. Everyone wins, except Plawecki.

Infielders

• Jose Reyes
• Asdrubal Cabrera
• Wilmer Flores
• James Loney
• Kelly Johnson
• T.J. Rivera

Let me come right out here and say this: it’s not what I would do. But this isn’t about what I would do*, it’s about what I think the Mets will do. Reyes, Cabrera, and Flores have to be no-brainers if they’re all healthy–an open question with Flores–and technically all three can play shortstop. That’s probably enough to keep the team from pulling in Matt Reynolds or Gavin Cecchini (ha!) as a backup six, and gives them the freedom to go with T.J. Rivera or Ty Kelly as the sixth infielder.

(* – What would I do? Swap out Loney for Cecchini–and make sure he gets a few big-league PA before October. Pray Wilmer gets real healthy real fast. And think long and hard about swapping Rivera out for Brandon Nimmo, while using Conforto or Bruce as the first baseman against right-handers.)

James Loney is still the top first baseman on the depth chart, inexplicably, so he’s in. The guy who should be the starting first baseman, Kelly Johnson, will continue to be Terry’s dynamite pinch-hitter. The only real question here is if the team goes with the hot hand of Rivera over the switch-hitting of Kelly.

(Later Friday Note: Lucas Duda looks to be back with the team starting this weekend. It’s a no-brainer to replace Loney with Duda if he’s even at 75 percent capacity. Loney is an inferior hitter and stiff af.)

Outfielders

• Yoenis Cespedes
• Curtis Granderson
• Jay Bruce
• Alejandro De Aza
• Michael Conforto
• Juan Lagares

You’d hope that the team would be allergic to starting Bruce at this point, but I imagine it will be a cold day in hell before the team sits him–even if Madison Bumgarner is the opposing starting pitcher. While I remain hopeful that the Mets roll with a Cespedes/Granderson/Conforto starting outfield against the Cardinals’ Carlos Martinez, hope is for the weak. If the Mets are faced with Bumgarner, none of the team’s “hard-hitting” options of Bruce, Conforto, Granderson, or even De Aza are good ones. That would be an extremely challenging game. In the end, I expect TC to pencil in good old Yoenis in left field, and then two of Granderson, Bruce, or De Aza in center and right. Michael Conforto should be available off the bench, unless something happens over the next two weeks that causes Terry to renew his confidence in the team’s once and future second-best hitter.

Lagares, ostensibly, is just here to run and play defense. In a one-game playoff, that’s okay. But I sure wish he could hit if the team is going to match up with Bumgarner. I’d feel a whole lot better with a healthy Lagares in center flanked by Yo and Grandy (or Conforto!) against a lefty than any other grouping. I mean, I’d feel a whole lot better if this roster was wildly different, but they’ve gotten this far …

Photo Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

Of course, the news came out this morning that the Mets have signed football-hero-now-power-hitting-non-prospect Tim Tebow to a minor-league contract, and he’ll be heading to instructs to get started. After his tryout, the book on Tebow became public knowledge: huge batting practice power, good speed … but little-to-no bat-to-ball, unimpressive outfield defense, and a questionable arm. He’s a flyer, a guy who’s unlikely to ever make the big leagues but you can dream on him improving his hit tool and becoming something of a power bat, whether that’s at Port St. Lucie or Flushing depends on how much magic his vaunted work ethic can generate. Teams like to bet on tools, especially power, and Tebow has that in spades.

Perhaps I should have imagined this Tebow-Mets union? As Kate Morrison rightly predicted on Twitter, the Mets were likely to make this move because the Mets own a low-A affiliate that will benefit financially from a Tebow infusion. The Wilpons will directly benefit from any increased attendance that their new, huge, left fielder will bring. (Of course, this is why I expected he’d end up with the Atlanta Braves, a team that controls all its affiliates and is based in the south; Tebow is based in Jacksonville.) And we all know that the team is more than happy to create PR issues if there is some way to benefit from it.

The Mets’ history of making big splashes that seem ill-advised or simply short-sighted–the inevitable cloud of disappointment that hangs over the little brother of New York sports–is what makes the fact that the Mets signed Tebow (and not the Braves or Rockies or any other team) something of an internet punchline. It’s funny that the Mets signed Tebow because they’re the Mets … not necessarily because he’s Tim Tebow.

I was watching a rerun of Friends the other night (I see you, Wilmer Flores!) and there was a scene where Joey Tribbiani is talking to a potential love interest who’s new in town. The conversation went something like this: she says “I’d love to see the Met.” Joey says something like: “No, no. You want to see the Yankees. The Mets suck!” And everyone laughs are poor, one-track-minded Joey. But everyone laughs at the Mets too, because the Mets are just as sad and simple.

This joke has been made, ad nauseum, forever. The Mets used to be the worst team in baseball history, forever the second fiddle to the Yankees, forever making the kinds of moves that cause fans to throw up their hands and outsiders to chuckle. Marv Throneberry’s existence. Jimmy Piersall running the bases backwards. Trading Tom Seaver. Bobby Bonilla’s deferred contract. Todd Hundley in left field. Daniel Murphy in left field. Lucas Duda in left field. Tony Bernazard. Bernie Madoff.

It’s that it’s the Mets.

Tebow was kind of a fiasco in New York the last time he played for a major franchise in the city. Maybe the Mets seem oblivious to that fact? LOL. But in reality, this is a low-risk move. Signing any 29-year-old to a minor-league deal is unlikely to make a major difference in a team’s win-loss record. (Trust me, I specialize in these kinds of transactions over at the BP main site. He’s less likely to affect a team than Erik Kratz or Dan Johnson.) This signing is about public relations, about money, and about the same one-in-a-thousand chance that a non-prospect will work out that every team makes 20 times a season.

It seems wildly unlikely that Tebow’s personality is going to rub players or management the wrong way. We’ve got mountains of anecdotes and piles of data that shows that people like being around him, and I’d be very surprised if his clubhouse presence ruins anything that wasn’t already broken to begin with. There’s no room for taking a moral stand against his signing the same way there might be with adding someone with a domestic violence record like Jose Reyes; Tebow’s negatives almost certainly come down to baseball skills … and maybe a little increased media scrutiny. That’s it. Quite honestly, I’d rather have the guy in the organization than Reyes, who’s contributing a great deal to the big league ballclub … and that’s coming from someone who attended Florida State University when Tebow was in Gainesville.

Let’s be honest, there’s virtually no way that this signing affects the Mets’ major-league roster in any way except one: this deal may make the Wilpons a little bit of money, which they can theoretically funnel back into the big-league product. That’s it. As way too many people have pointed out, there’s nothing wrong with signing a guy with one tool to a low-risk minor-league deal. Teams do that all the time with international guys, with former big-leaguers and prospects, with guys who pop up and do one thing well in indy ball. Teams invite Russell Wilson and Johnny Manziel and Garth Brooks to Spring Training because they can, and because it’s fun, and because why not. So I guess I’m for this signing, in the end. Let’s lean into the punchline a little, and recognize Tebow’s signing for what it is: another act in the three-ring circus, designed to delight a few but that makes no major impact on the serious matters outside the big tent.

Rest assured, this deal will be fun for some people: fans who already like Tim Tebow, families taking their kids to Cyclones games, the entire ESPN and Fox Sports networks, SEO optimizers … and maybe even for a few Mets fans and beat writers. Sure, it keeps the Mets in the spotlight as a franchise that’s good for a little bit of a laugh at times. LOLMets and all that. But it’s not like the team didn’t still earn that punchline anyway.

Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

For the purposes of this list, I’m really just focusing on the team’s MLB acquisitions from outside sources … the folks the team acquires in order to complement the in-house players. Since Sandy Alderson took over baseball operations in 2011, these are the major additions the team has made:

• Signed RP D.J. Carrasco (12/10)
• Signed C Ronny Paulino (12/10)
• Signed RP Taylor Buchholz (1/11)
• Signed SP Chris Capuano (1/11)
• Signed SP Chris Young (1/11)
• Signed OF Scott Hairston (1/11)
• Acquired RP Danny Herrera and RP Adrian Rosario from the Brewers for RP Francisco Rodriguez (7/11)
• Claimed OF Mike Baxter off waivers from the Padres (7/11)
• Acquired RHP Zack Wheeler from the Giants for OF Carlos Beltran (7/11)
• Acquired OF Andres Torres and RP Ramon Ramirez from the Giants for OF Angel Pagan (12/11)
• Claimed SP Jeremy Hefner off waivers from the Pirates (12/11)
• Signed RP Jon Rauch (12/11)
• Signed RP Frank Francisco (12/11)
• Signed SP/RP Miguel Batista (1/12)
• Signed OF Scott Hairston (1/12)
• Signed IF Ronny Cedeno (1/12)
• Acquired cash from the Orioles for SS Omar Quintanilla (7/12)
• Acquired C Kelly Shoppach from the Red Sox for RP Pedro Beato (8/12)
• Claimed C Anthony Recker off waivers from the Cubs (10/12)
• Signed C Mike Nickeas (11/12)
• Acquired RHP Noah Syndergaard, C Travis d’Arnaud, C John Buck, and OF Wuilmer Becerra from the Blue Jays for RHP R.A. Dickey, C Josh Thole, and C Mike Nickeas (12/12)
• Acquired OF Collin Cowgill from the Athletics for 3B Jefry Marte (12/12)
• Signed SP Shaun Marcum (1/13)
• Signed RP Brandon Lyon (2/13)
• Signed OF Rick Ankiel (5/13)
• Acquired OF Eric Young Jr. from the Rockies for SP Collin McHugh (6/13)
• Acquired OF Kyle Johnson from the Angels for OF Collin Cowgill (6/13)
• Signed SP/RP Daisuke Matsuzaka (8/13)
• Acquired 2B Dilson Herrera and RP Vic Black from the Pirates for OF Marlon Byrd and C John Buck (8/13)
• Signed OF Chris Young (11/13)
• Signed OF Curtis Granderson (12/13)
• Signed SP Bartolo Colon (12/13)
• Acquired SP/RP Blake Taylor and RP Zack Thornton from the Pirates for 1B Ike Davis (4/14)
• Signed OF Michael Cuddyer (11/14)
• Signed OF John Mayberry Jr. (12/14)
• Acquired cash from the Yankees for RP Gonzalez Germen (12/14)
• Acquired RP Jerry Blevins from the Nationals for OF Matt den Dekker (3/15)
• Acquired RP Alex Torres from the Padres for SP Cory Mazzoni and RP Brad Wieck (3/15)
• Acquired cash from the Angels for OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis (5/15)
• Claimed OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis off waivers from the Angels (6/15)
• Acquired 3B Juan Uribe and UT Kelly Johnson and cash from the Braves for SP/RP Jon Gant and RP Rob Whalen (7/15)
• Acquired RP Tyler Clippard and cash from the Athletics for RP Casey Meisner (7/15)
• Acquired OF Yoenis Cespedes from the Tigers for SP Michael Fulmer and SP Luis Cessa (7/15)
• Acquired RP Eric O’Flaherty from the Athletics for RP Darwin Frias (8/15)
• Acquired OF Eric Young Jr. from the Braves for cash (8/15)
• Acquired RP Addison Reed from the Diamondbacks for RP Miller Diaz and SP Matt Koch (8/15)
• Acquired 2B Neil Walker from the Pirates for SP Jon Niese (12/15)
• Signed SS Asdrubal Cabrera (12/15)
• Signed RP Jerry Blevins (12/15)
• Signed SP Bartolo Colon (12/15)
• Signed OF Alejandro De Aza (12/15)
• Signed RP Antonio Bastardo (1/16)
• Signed OF Yoenis Cespedes (1/16)
• Acquired cash from the Blue Jays for OF Darrell Ceciliani (2/16)
• Acquired 1B James Loney from the Padres for cash (5/16)
• Acquired UT Kelly Johnson from the Braves for RP Akeel Morris (6/16)
• Signed OF Justin Ruggiano (7/16)
• Acquired OF Jay Bruce from the Reds for 2B Dilson Herrera and SP Max Wotell (8/16)
• Acquired SP/RP Jon Niese from the Pirates for RP Antonio Bastardo (8/16)

As you can see, I’ve highlighted in bold the deals that seemed to qualify as “major” in my eyes. Those are the deals that involved trading for or away a starter (position or pitcher) or closer … or involved signing someone intended to fill that role.

So … what do you think? Let us know in the comments. Are the Mets pretty good at going after major-league talent or not?

Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports