Granderson’s selectiveness and ability to work the count has been apparent since his return to the leadoff spot. Since the beginning of 2015, Granderson has the second-lowest swing percentage in all of baseball: 37.7 percent (47.4 percent is the MLB average). What’s exciting with Granderson isn’t that he began swinging less and seeing more pitches, but that was laying off the pitches that had given him trouble throughout his career.

Like many lefties, Granderson has been a low-ball hitter throughout his career. In Granderson’s case he is an extreme low-ball hitter, at least in terms of the pitches he has had the most success with. During past seasons though, Granderson had trouble laying off pitches in the top third of the strike zone where he was far less effective.

From the beginning of his career through 2014, he swung at pitches in the middle and lower third of the strike zone around 65 percent of the time and swung at pitches in the top third of the strike zone 54 percent of the time. However, since the beginning of last season, Granderson has swung at only 46 percent of pitches in the top third of the zone while continuing to attack pitches that are middle in and middle down … the places where he has done the most damage.

Furthermore, Granderson has excelled at laying off pitches above the letters. Previously, pitches above the strikezone were a kryptonite for Granderson–his whiff rate spiked and his slugging percentage plummeted. Despite his lack of success, he chased above the zone over 16 percent of the time prior to 2015. Now, however, Granderson is far more disciplined, chasing just 7.5 percent of those pitches. By laying off pitches up in the zone, Granderson isn’t giving away at bats (or falling beyond in the count) like he used to.

In conjunction with honing his approach, Granderson has cut down on his swings and misses too. In his Yankee years, he developed a reputation as a free swinger, but that’s hardly been the case as a Met. In his final year in the Bronx, Granderson’s whiff rate was 13.6 percent–the highest of his career–and he also had the highest swing rate of his career. Last year, Granderson set a career low in swinging strike rate (6.9 percent, which was well below the league average 9.9 percent). Not only is Granderson attacking his pitch, but he’s putting them in play, too.

Granderson was a star for the Mets last season.  Thus far, he and the team haven’t found their stride but Graderson has continued to lay off the high stuff and work the count. Once his early season BABIP fluctuations work themselves out Granderson will continue to be a presence at the top of the lineup … so long as he keeps doing what he’s been doing since the start of 2015.

Photo Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Due to ample options in the Mets’ outfield Terry will need to balance playing time and platoon considerations. Collins has already committed to platooning Michael Conforto with Juan Lagares, telling Newday’s Marc Carig, “We’re in a situation where we’re trying to win games. This is not a time to develop players.”

Collins is correct, Lagares is the Mets’ best outfielder against left-handed pitchers and has to play. Over his career, he has been above-average against lefties (.281/.327/.429), which is only slightly worse than Yoenis Cespedes’ overall career line (.253/.323/.467).  Consider too that Lagares is the Mets’ only true centerfielder and perhaps 10 or 20 runs better than Cespedes.

Collins’s decision to platoon Lagares is correct, but his decision to bench Conforto rather than Curtis Granderson is an error–certainly Cespedes will play.  This isn’t simply a question of developing Conforto; the Mets’ priority must be to win. Collins’ reliance on his veterans is understandable, but Granderson struggled against left-handed pitching after overhauling his approach last year (.217 TAv in 2015, .249 career TAv, where .260 is league-average).

Meanwhile, Conforto had success against left-handed pitching in the minors but his major league track record is statistically insignificant–just 16 PA. Early in his career he has shown great aptitude as a hitter and yes, while development isn’t the main priority, Conforto will likely be in the heart of the Mets’ lineup for the next six seasons. He should get a least 100 plate appearances before Collins writes him off. Certainly giving Conforto the first opportunity does not preclude starting Granderson in the event Conforto flounders.

Two other factors favor starting Conforto every day: Granderson’s defense and his age. The primary concern with Granderson’s defense is his arm. For years runners have taken advantage of Granderson and to start the season the Royals and the Phillies took every extra base they could when the ball was hit to Grandy. Starting Conforto will improve the outfield defense as he has a much stronger arm and is rated slightly better than Granderson by FRAA.

Furthermore, a platoon will allow the Mets to protect Granderson’s playing time. Grandy, now 35, is the third-oldest starting right fielder in baseball behind Carlos Beltran (38) and Nelson Cruz (35). Both of them will regularly DH and rotate out of the lineup. While Granderson was a stalwart atop the Mets’ lineup during his first two years in Flushing, both the team and the player would benefit from managing Granderson’s playing time. Benching him against left-handed starters provides a perfect opportunity.

Collins faces a similar situation in the infield, even if he’s reluctant to admit it. Neil Walker has always struggled against left-handed pitching and is a clear choice to platoon with Flores despite being a switch hitter. Walker’s career TAv against left-handed pitchers is .242, worse than Granderson and Lucas Duda (.271), and Flores represents a substantial improvement (.294). Collins is aware of Walker’s numbers, but will defer to the veteran’s experience.  Though Flores started at first base this spring, it appears he will not platoon with Duda but will spell him as needed or in case of emergency (no Eric Campbell, please).

The Mets have yet to face a left-handed starter, so Collins hasn’t disclosed or implemented his plan. Ultimately, should he give Granderson and Walker 150 plate appearances versus left-handed pitchers, the effect would be greater than any single in-game decision. Collins, who improved as a tactical manager since his promotion in 2010, will trust in his players’ talent and the numbers rather than simply deferring to experience.

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As good as the Nationals have been recently, it’s clear that GM Mike Rizzo has failed to surround Bryce Harper with enough talent. Rizzo’s “Star and Scrubs” roster will require Harper to carry a lineup littered with talented, but flawed players. It bears repeating, however, that Harper’s regressed projection is less than half his 2015 production–11.2 Batter Wins Above Replacement Player, or BWARP, in 2015–and despite Harper’s historic season the Nationals still missed the playoffs. To put last year in context, Harper’s BWARP was higher than any single Mike Trout season and was equivalent to prime Barry Bonds. It’s possible, even likely, that the projection for Harper is too conservative–he is a generational talent after all. Then again, if Harper does not replicate his 2015 season, it’s difficult to foresee the Nationals surpassing the Mets.

The only true candidate to be Harper’s running-mate is Anthony Rendon, who has previously performed at an elite level. In 2014, he posted a 5.4 win season after being considered the most talented player in the 2011 amateur draft. Recall though, Washington was only able to draft Rendon sixth overall because he–like our Travis d’Arnaud–had a propensity for injury: thumb, ankle, oblique, etc. If Washington wins the division, it will be because Rendon remains on the field and performs at an All-Star level. The alternative is …

… Trea Turner. Not a bad option! Though, that it is an option at all is shortsighted. In a patent effort to claw back Turner’s service time, the Nationals will start Danny Espinosa (0.4 BWARP in about 250 PA) over their top shortstop prospect. The Mets made a similar decision by acquiring Neil Walker instead of handing second base to the young, inexperienced Dilson Herrera, but Rizzo’s decision is distinguishable. Espinosa has proven to be a below average hitter without any upside over a period of six seasons. The only variation in his value has been due to playing time and defensive output. If he is an average defender at shortstop, he is, at best, an average player. In contrast, Walker was consistently above-average in Pittsburgh and will not be playing out of position; Espinosa played just 50 innings at shortstop last season. It’s difficult to justify stashing a high-upside option like Turner at Triple-A while Espinosa starts for three months.

The Nationals should be starting Turner for his upside, in large part, because they cannot rely on healthy, productive seasons from Jayson Werth or Ryan Zimmerman. Werth was very productive for a decade, but is now 37 years old and is overcoming wrist and shoulder injuries. Zimmerman, 31, has been constantly injured and was limited to just 95 games last year. This is where the the Nationals’ lack of depth becomes an issue. If Zimmerman and Werth cannot remain on the field and match their 2014 output–.294 TAv and .319 TAv, respectively–the Nationals are going to be in trouble. Why? Because the best alternative to each is Clint Robinson.

The Mets have similar injury concerns, but far more depth. Starters Travis d’Arnaud and David Wright have concerning injury histories that suggest neither will match their playing time projections (115 and 127 games, respectively). Currently, the Mets’ plan that Wright will start 130 games and thus his 127 game projection represents more or less the Mets’ best case scenario. Surprisingly, d’Arnaud is projected to be the most valuable Met position player, just a hair past Walker and Cespedes. However, the last time d’Arnaud played more than 115 games was as a Lakewood Blueclaw in 2009. Due to his propensity for injury it’s likely the Mets will rely on Kevin Plawecki. The Mets are lucky that the drop off from d’Arnaud and Wright to Plawecki and Flores wouldn’t devastate their season.  In both instances the Mets would only lose about .20 points of TAv with the defensive value being comparable. (Wright ain’t what he used to be, folks.)

The Mets’ depth should prevent a similar fate with their aging veteran in the outfield, Curtis Granderson. Granderson reinvented himself as a leadoff hitter last year and posted a 5.5 BWARP season after he struggled during his first year in Queens. Entering his age 35 season, Granderson is also the Met most likely to regress. Luckily, the Mets can rely on Juan Lagares as their “utility” outfielder to protect Granderson from left-handed pitching.

If Michael Conforto plays every day he may be the Met most likely to outperform his PECOTA projection. However, I am concerned that Terry the Tinkerer will stunt Conforto’s development by platooning him with Juan Lagares or–gasp–Eric Campbell. It seems obvious that Granderson should sit against left-handed pitchers given his age and career split, but Collins loves Granderson atop the Mets’ lineup and is unlikely to sit him. Instead, expect Collins to constantly rotate Lagares and de Aza into lineup at the expense of Conforto’s playing time.

To put the above visualization in context, last year Clayton Kershaw was projected for 5.3 BWARP and the top 10 pitchers excluding Kershaw are projected for 3.3 BWARP. The Mets and the Nationals are obviously stocked, both are the only teams with three pitchers in PECOTA’s top 25. Despite the hype surrounding Mets’ top three, Max Scherzer (third), Stephen Strasburg (20th), and Gio Gonzalez (25th) will more or less match Matt Harvey (eighth), Jacob deGrom (23rd), and Noah Syndergaard (24th). It wouldn’t surprise me if the Mets had three starters in the top 15 by year’s end. While both teams will rely heavily on their trios, each has enviable upside in the back of their rotation.

For the Mets, it is Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler. Injuries have stalled both players’ development, but each has the pedigree to greatly outperform their projections. Wheeler should join the Mets when his Tommy John rehab concludes in July, and if he stays on track he should easily surpass the 40-inning PECOTA projection after he replaces Colon in the rotation.

PECOTA believes that when Tanner Roark returns to the rotation this year he will continue to be a strike-throwing innings-eater. His upside is limited, however, by his inability to miss bats. The Nationals will be content if Roark can work deep into games and avoid home runs until Lucas Giolito is ready.

Unlike Trea Turner, the decision to break camp without Lucas Giolito in the rotation is defensible. Giolito has only thrown 50 innings above Double-A and with just 20 days off the 25-man roster the Nationals can secure an additional year of service time. After the service time clawback period lapses, the question becomes how long will Rizzo waits to call up the top pitching prospect in baseball. While Roark and Ross are serviceable, if Giolito is ready to contribute he should be called up immediately once the extra year of service time is secured–that way, the Nationals secure the benefit of as many of his 140 innings as possible.

Each of these teams have a clear path to the division title, but the Mets, due to their balance and depth, are in a better position to overcome the obstacles they’re faced with. Any team with Bryce Harper is a threat, but one must wonder if the burden of carrying these Nationals is just too much without help from Turner and Giolito.

Thanks to Andrew Mearns for visualizations.

Photo Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports