Those were the words of a tearful David Wright during an emotional Thursday afternoon press conference at Citi Field as the Mets’ homegrown star announced that his next start will be his last. And as I’ve sat here staring into the depths of my computer screen, trying to properly assemble my thoughts for so long that it’s all become a pixelated blur, those words continue to strike me.

In a game that has become so driven by the statistics, this story goes beyond numbers. This is about a man coming to the realization that it’s all over, and having to admit that to a fanbase where he remains a beloved figure. This, of course, only came after he had to admit that fact to himself.

And now, Mets fans, as a collective group, are left to cope with this news in their own way. We’ve seen great players depart from this organization in one way or another over the years, but never before has it felt anything like this. Come up with the name of any other players you’d like; Wright was different. Since being drafted by the team in 2001, Wright never wore another uniform. He became the team’s all-time leader in at-bats, hits, doubles, runs batted in, walks and runs scored. He was the team captain, even before it became official. And maybe most importantly, he was an incredible ambassador for the game of baseball, and one of the few true role models left in sports.

When Wright’s press conference was first scheduled, I didn’t think much of it other than that the team would announce that after two years of grueling surgeries and rehab, their captain would be making his return to the major league diamond. Once the presser began, however, it quickly became apparent that this wasn’t about a return at all; it was about an ending.

“Physically, the way I feel right now and everything the doctors have told me, there’s not going to be any improvement,” Wright said, attempting to hold back the tears, as he discussed the injuries to his neck, shoulder and back. “Those three combined, it’s debilitating to play baseball.”

As he sat alongside interim general manager John Ricco and owner Jeff Wilpon, the Mets announced that Wright would be activated during the final week of the regular season, where he would get one last start before walking off of the field for good.

And just like that, in what felt like an instant, it was as if whatever was left of my childhood had evaporated into thin air.

David Wright was the first favorite player I ever had — in any sport. I didn’t start watching baseball until I was 15, but from that first moment, Wright was always there. The Mets had a young, homegrown superstar manning third base every day, and I couldn’t get enough of it. And as the years went on and the team began to struggle and go through roster turnover after roster turnover, through multiple managers and GMs, there was still always one stalwart: David Wright.

And while the last two years have resulted in Wright coming to the realization that he could no longer physically play the game he loves, it is only now that I’ve come to a realization of my own: this will be the last time I ever write about him.

One of life’s greatest clichés is that people don’t know what they have until it’s gone. And the reason it’s a phrase so oft-repeated is because it’s also one of life’s greatest truths. The reality is that moments of pure joy and ecstasy never last as long as we hope they will, and we’d better appreciate them while we can because before you know it, they’re nothing more than just a memory.

I only met David Wright once in my life. I was shooting video for SNY as a 21-year-old at Citi Field, and Wright took time out of his pre-game schedule to chat with us about the future of the team. It was the only time in my professional career that I’ve been starstruck. In that moment, I couldn’t even muster up the words to say a simple “hi” or “nice to meet you,” and before I could blink the moment had passed me by. And that’s kind of how I’ve been feeling about this entire situation lately.

Despite it taking place over the course of 14 years rather than a brief five minutes, I don’t know if I ever took a moment to appreciate how special of a player (and person) that David Wright was. That this type of thing is rare, especially for the Mets who have never really had a homegrown star spend their entire careers in the orange and blue. At no point did I take stock into the fact that someday this would all be over, even as he missed the last two years due to injury. But here we are. Whether we like it or not, we’ve reached the end of the line.

I’m not sure anyone is ever truly ready to say goodbye to someone, but often times we never even get that chance. So in a way, despite it being too painful to think about baseball lately, I do think we, as Mets fans, are somewhat fortunate.

We get a chance to say goodbye to David Wright in our own way, and on his own terms. For a few brief moments over the next week, we will get to see an all-time franchise great close out his career in the only place deserving—the baseball field.

You only get one chance to say goodbye, so even if it’s for only three at-bats and even if it’s only for a few innings at third base, cherish these final moments while you can. Appreciate David Wright for what he is and for what he’s given to all of us while he’s still here.

Because once he’s gone, this will all be nothing more than just a memory.

Photo credit: Michael Baron

Throughout the course of this season, this organization has being spreading misinformation or, as it should be more bluntly put, flat-out lies on a routine basis.

There was the time Mickey Callaway claimed that Jeff McNeil was incapable of playing anywhere besides second base, despite the fact that 48% of McNeil’s minor league appearances came at other positions. Since being called up by the Mets, McNeil has played two of his eight games at third base, which while not being an overwhelming sample size, is very clearly not exclusively second.

Or the multiple times that Callaway has stuck up for José Reyes, whose off- and on-field actions would have merited a release from nearly any other team in Major League Baseball. “He’s played pretty good when he’s been out there,” Callaway said in early July while explaining why Reyes was starting at third base. Reyes has -3 defensive runs saved, a -2 ultimate zone rating and a -29.7 UZR/150 at that position, by the way. And that’s not even mentioning Reyes’ atrocious offensive numbers; the 35-year-old is hitting .187/.258/.283 for the season.

How about the time that interim general manager — at least I think? The Mets front office situation is honestly a tangled mystery at this point — John Ricco claimed that the club would potentially absorb salary in trade deadline deals in order to get a better return. Well, as it turned out, the Mets opted to make just two trades ahead of this year’s July 31 deadline, as they moved Jeurys Familia and Asdrubal Cabrera. They also didn’t absorb a single cent of either player’s remaining contracts, saving the team close to $5 million. “We made the judgment the talent level for eating money wasn’t going to be there,” Ricco said after the Familia trade. “We decided to do the deal where we moved the money.” Perhaps a better deal would have been there had they kept negotiating until closer to the deadline.

Mickey Callaway says he started Jose Reyes at second base today over Jeff McNeil because McNeil, who has missed much of the past two years due to injury, needs regular days off to stay fresh. He has not played in this many games (97 so far) since 2015. #Mets

— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) August 3, 2018

Despite Ricco’s claims that the team needed to “look at position players,” young players such as Amed Rosario, Jeff McNeil and Luis Guillorme continue to find themselves on the bench in favor of veterans with expiring contracts — Reyes, Jose Bautista, Austin Jackson, etc. — to the point that Gary Cohen, live on SNY, is counting the number of players over the age of 30 in the starting lineup. And the explanations from Callaway have varied from slightly odd to inexplicable.

Rosario is sitting 2x per week in an attempt to help his production

— Matt Ehalt (@MattEhalt) August 3, 2018

And now that the 2018 season is already over for this team, despite two more full months of games on their schedule, this front office triumvirate has their sights set on next year. Yet despite being on pace for consecutive 90-loss seasons, having a bottom-10 farm system and an unwillingness to spend on top tier free agents, Ricco has continuously claimed that the Mets are planning on being postseason contenders in 2019…with zero explanation on how they plan on accomplishing that feat.

Along with the team’s incessant need to hide the truth, what’s become frustrating over these last few months is how a large majority of the media covering this team has essentially allowed them to get away with it. As the Mets continue to claim how well Reyes has played or why certain prospects are left to toil in the minors or how they’ll magically be contenders again next season, pushback in the press briefing room has been practically nonexistent. I think we all understand that this is a difficult position for these writers. These are people that they have to face on a daily basis, but at the end of the day, it is their job to seek the truth, and not just become another mouth piece for this organization. And while Callaway and Ricco likely aren’t the source of these lies, as the Wilpons (who apparently are only accessible to the media once every three years) continue to reign from on high, those making these false claims need to be pressed on the words coming out of their mouths. If you’re holding back your hard-hitting questions for Fred and Jeff Wilpon, you’re going to be waiting for a long time.

I don’t expect this or any other baseball organization to be completely transparent and tell the truth at all times. There are situations where holding back information or posturing make sense for strategic reasons. But these things the Mets are saying have no logic or strategy behind them, and instead appear to be thinly veiled attempts at covering for their continued poor decision-making.

What may be most frustrating, though, is that I don’t know if there’s an easy solution for this problem. Sure, you can change the manager or the general manager or the entire staff if you want to, but that’s not going to make much of a difference. Culture is derived from the top, and the Wilpons won’t be climbing down from their perch anytime soon. Will more pressure from reporters and analysts help change things?  Will anyone actually step up to even try? Is an organized fan revolt something that can actually work, or will ownership just drown out the noise?

In all honesty, there may not be anything that can actually stop the Mets from deceiving their fanbase. But from this point forward, these lies can no longer be ignored. They can no longer be rationalized. The time has come for the Mets to be called out for what they really are.

Photo credit: USA Today Sports

The following year, despite seeing Daniel Murphy blossom into a superstar with the rival Nationals while their own squad dealt with a nearly unbelievable amount of injuries to key players, the Mets still managed to find themselves in the postseason. And while their run lasted a grand total of one game, a heartbreaking Wild Card loss to the Giants, things were still looking up for a team that had made the postseason in back-to-back years for only the second time in franchise history.

And yet somehow that was the best it ever got for these New York Mets. The front office decided to double down on an older, injury-prone roster as they entered 2017 without signing a single free agent from another team. To the surprise of few, injuries once again caught up with a Mets team that was now a year older, and this time they could not overcome them, as they became sellers at the trade deadline and finished the season with 90 losses.

Then came 2018, a season that started with such promise only to become another example of why Mets fans have such a hard time believing in anything. As first-year manager Mickey Callaway and ninth-year GM Sandy Alderson show their frustration publicly, the Mets continue to find themselves spiraling toward possible oblivion, as they’ve gone from an 11-1 start that exhilarated a woebegone fan base to six games under .500 on the season.

But how did we get here?

While the Mets made some solid signings over the offseason by bringing in guys like Todd Frazier and Jason Vargas, both of who had decent major league track records, at no point did they make a move of enough substance. The problem is that every addition this organization made during the winter was a half-measure. At no point did the Mets make any moves that told the fan base that they were “all in” on making the most of their championship window. Instead, they did just enough to give off the appearance that they were trying to win, all while still shopping in the discount aisle of the free agent market. Not to mention that in an era of young, versatile players, the average age of the club’s six free agent signings over the offseason (Jay Bruce, Todd Frazier, Jason Vargas, Jose Reyes, Anthony Swarzak and Adrian Gonzalez) was 33 years old.

As the season has marched on, the Mets — unsurprisingly so — have suffered from injuries yet again as their 10 players currently on the disabled list ties them for first in the major leagues. Unfortunately for them, the injury bug can no longer be used as a crutch for the team’s futility.

While Yoenis Céspedes’ presence in the lineup has been sorely missed, the Mets struggles have come down to the fact that they’re getting severe underperformance out of some of their most important players.

Bruce, the team’s biggest offseason investment, is hitting just .219/.299/.328 with three home runs and 15 RBI in 59 games this season. Michael Conforto, who looked like a star on the rise last year, is hitting .215/.335/.359 with a .694 OPS following season-ending shoulder surgery in 2017. And Mets catchers as a whole have hit .193/.297/.319 with a .616 OPS collectively.

While the Mets continue to trot out an older, slower, all-or-nothing roster that is no longer compatible with the way baseball is played in 2018, they don’t have many other ways to go.

After buying at the 2015 and 2016 trade deadlines, subpar drafting by this regime over the last few years and a fire sale in the summer of 2017 that didn’t result in a single premiere prospect, there do not appear to be many reinforcements coming from within.

And the few talented players that they actually do have lying in wait, such as Peter Alonso and Jeff McNeil, continue to stew in the minor leagues as the team continued to give daily at-bats to Gonzalez, Reyes and José Bautista, all of whom are on the wrong side of 30.

Yes, the Mets have undergone some bad luck over the last few seasons as they’ve seen some of their biggest stars lost to injury, but this franchise stands where they are today due to the mismanagement of their finances, their offseason moves and their in-season roster.

It has now been over 10 years since the Mets last signed a free agent from another team to a deal of $100M or more. Aside from the re-signings of David Wright in 2012 and Yoenis Céspedes in 2016, this franchise has continued to chase the most cost-effective deals in free agency as they’ve let their financial woes define who they are as an organization.

As the winters have gone by and fans have clamored for the team to sign talented players that desperately would have filled needs such as Robinson Cano, Justin Upton, Darren O’Day, Lorenzo Cain or Jake Arrieta, the Mets have never once obliged. Instead, the organization has made investments in cheaper, aging veterans like Chris Young, Michael Cuddyer, Alejandro De Aza, Antonio Bastardo, Fernando Salas, Adrian Gonzalez and Jason Vargas.

Despite all of the team’s current issues, the Mets could potentially find themselves in contention once again moving forward if they signed a Manny Machado or Bryce Harper, both of whom are free agents after this season. And yet we are already conditioned to know that this is a route this franchise won’t travel down. Instead, the New York Mets appear as if they’re doomed for baseball purgatory, as they refuse to fully commit to winning or a proper rebuild.

Things were supposed to be different this season as both the coaching and medical staffs were completely revamped, and yet all I’m seeing is more of the same.

Instead of using their limited budget wisely this offseason and investing in one or two very good players, the Mets went for quantity over quality. Instead of changing the way they manager player injuries, the Mets forced Céspedes and Frazier to play hurt, which only resulted in longer stints on the disabled list. Instead of managing the everyday roster more efficiently, Sandy Alderson has continued to put this team in a position where they’re playing short more often than not. And instead of committing to youth and having short leashes on veteran flier signings, guys like Reyes and Bautista are all still on the roster.

At some point, the team may finally wave the white flag as they trade away Jacob deGrom for a wealth of young, exciting prospects, and at this point that’s a move that probably makes sense. But this is a point that the Mets should have never gotten to in the first place.

This organization went nearly a decade without making the postseason and had everything looking up and working in their favor after the 2015 and 2016 seasons. But due to their inability to properly build around their young core of talent, that’s as far as it ever got.

Two years.

As poet Robert Frost once wrote, “nothing gold can stay.” That rings especially true for fans of the New York Mets. Even though it shouldn’t.

Photo credits: Tommy Gilligan, Aaron Doster, Brad Penner, Steve Mitchell – USA Today Sports; photo illustration: Rich MacLeod

As the Mets continue to struggle this season—they sport a 16-26 record over their last 42 games — it has become even more evident how little production the team has gotten out of their most expensive assets.

And the numbers are stark…

AJ Ramos: $9.32M, 6.41 ERA, 0.0 WARP

Initially viewed at as a savvy midseason addition last year by yours truly, AJ Ramos has turned out to be nothing but in New York. After starting off the year with nine scoreless appearances, everything has gone wrong for the 31-year-old right-hander. Since April 16th, Ramos has allowed 14 earned runs, 16 hits, nine walks, three home runs and an opponent’s slashline of .302/.397/.528 in 13.1 innings pitched. That’s a 9.45 ERA, for those wondering. Now Ramos finds himself as one of 11 Mets players currently on the disabled list, his stint due to tendinitis in his pitching shoulder. Ramos is the fourth-highest paid member of the Mets this season.

Anthony Swarzak: $5.5M, 3.86 ERA, 0.1 WARP

The Mets’ biggest bullpen investment of the offseason came on a two-year contract with Anthony Swarzak. After a breakout season split between the White Sox and Brewers where he posted a 2.33 ERA in 70 appearances, Swarzak appeared as if he’d be slotted into the set-up man role with the Mets. That hasn’t quite worked out. After just two appearances this season, Swarzak landed on the disabled list because of a sore left oblique and is just now beginning a rehab assignment. It’s been 62 days since he last appeared in a major league game.

Jay Bruce: $11M, .659 OPS, -0.1 WARP

After a very productive season with the Mets and Indians in 2017, Jay Bruce elected to make his return to Flushing with a three-year, $39M contract during the offseason. Coming off of a 36-home run season and three consecutive seasons with at least 26 dingers, it’s safe to assume that Sandy Alderson and company were expecting much of the same in the power department. Through 51 games, however, Bruce has batted a startling .230/.305/.354 with just three home runs, 11 doubles and 15 RBI. The month of May was even more unkind to the veteran Bruce, as the left-handed right fielder hit .211/.283/.300 with just one home run and three RBI in that time. Perhaps he’s still dealing with plantar fasciitis in his left foot, an injury that first reared its head in spring training, but as long as he’s still on the roster, he’ll be looked at to produce. And eventually something’s gotta give.

José Reyes: $2M, .406 OPS, -0.7 WARP

While he’s only the 15th-highest paid player on the team, José Reyes is still notable due to the fact that the Mets decided to give $2M in an offseason where players like Adam Lind, Melky Cabrera, José Bautista and Mark Reynolds had to settle for minor league contracts. And not to sound like the Twitter famous “Virus Guy,” but even in a limited role Reyes has been a detriment to this team. In 38 games, the now-34-year-old Reyes is hitting .145/.203/.203 with one home run, one double, three RBI, two stolen bases (one caught stealing), six runs scored and an OPS+ of 16 (league average is 100). In the field, things have not gone much better for Reyes, as he’s committed four errors along with -16 defensive runs saved. It’s the lowest salary of anyone who’s made this list, but it’s also the least production of any of the other mainstays on the Mets 2018 roster.

Jason Vargas: $6M, 8.53 ERA, -0.3 WARP

After compiling the second-worst team ERA in franchise history last season, the Mets’ only major league contract to a starting pitcher in the offseason went to the 35-year-old left-hander Jason Vargas. After missing the majority of April due to a broken right hand, Vargas has provided little comfort for what’s been an ailing rotation over the last season-and-a-half. In his first six starts of the year, Vargas has allowed 24 earned runs, 36 hits and 11 walks in 25.1 innings pitched. His longest start of the year has been five innings, a feat he’s only accomplished twice. One would think that Vargas simply has to pitch better solely due to the fact that his current 8.53 ERA is almost exactly double his career mark. Up until this point, however, that has not been the case. Vargas has been as bad as the numbers suggest, if not worse, and with Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz on the disabled list, his outings have become all-the-more important to this team.

Jerry Blevins: $7M, 5.84 ERA, -0.6 WARP

Once the Mets’ most trustworthy pitcher out of the bullpen, left-handed specialist Jerry Blevins has not lived up to his title to start the 2018 season. Prior to this year, left-handed batters had hit .216/.268/.309 against Blevins during his 12-year career. This season, though, has been a complete role reversal for Blevins, as lefties have hit a stunning .344/.400/.438 with an .838 OPS in 35 plate appearances against him. Since the start of this season, Blevins hasn’t seemed confident in his curveball and the stats show why, as left-handers have hit .308 vs. what was once a lethal pitch in his arsenal. “It’s not for lack of effort,” a frustrated Blevins recently said to reporters. “It’s really hard to contain it sometimes.” Blevins is currently the eighth-highest paid player on the Mets, and the second-highest paid relief pitcher.

Honorable mentions:

Players such as Yoenis Céspedes and Todd Frazier were productive enough to avoid the main list, but deserve to be mentioned as they’ve both been on the disabled list for most of May while earning a combined $37M this season. Travis d’Arnaud and Juan Lagares, both of whom suffered season-ending injuries, are making a combined $9.98M in 2018.

And before anyone says it, David Wright is not applicable for this category as insurance will cover the majority of his $20M salary this season.

Not including the honorable mentions, the Mets are paying a total of $40.8M this season to the group of Ramos, Swarzak, Bruce, Reyes, Vargas and Blevins… who have combined for a negative 1.6 WARP. And for a team that doesn’t spend much money as it is, that is flat out unacceptable.

The Mets have gotten production out of their more affordable players like Brandon Nimmo, Robert Gsellman and Jacob deGrom, but if they don’t start getting contributions from their highest-paid players — and soon — this team may be in a whole world of trouble.

 Photo credit: Aaron Doster – USA Today Sports

After a brief stint as a rookie with the club in the second half of the 2012 season, Matt Harvey set the world on fire the following year, pitching to a 2.27 ERA with a 2.01 FIP, 0.931 WHIP and 191 strikeouts, officially becoming The Dark Knight. That is, of course, until that August when it was revealed that the man who had finally brought hope back to a downtrodden fanbase had a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow.

Despite missing the entire 2014 season, Harvey returned in 2015 resembling the pitcher of old. In 29 starts that year, Harvey pitched to a 2.71 ERA with a 3.05 FIP, 1.019 WHIP and 188 strikeouts in the regular season. After making four starts that postseason, Harvey pitched a combined 216 innings in 2015 — the most innings ever thrown by a pitcher in their first season following Tommy John surgery.

The lasting image of the Matt Harvey everyone knew and loved was the man who ran out onto the field in the ninth inning of the World Series to thunderous applause. That was the final time The Dark Knight was ever seen on a baseball field.

Ever since that night, things have spiraled for Harvey; the former ace has pitched to a 9-19 record with a 5.79 ERA, 4.88 FIP, 1.565 WHIP while allowing 249 hits and 77 walks in 208.1 innings pitched.

At the start of 2016, it appeared as if a change in his mechanics was the cause of Harvey’s struggles, but instead thoracic outlet syndrome made it difficult for him to even feel the baseball in his hand due to nerve damage. For the second time in his career, Harvey’s season ended early due to major surgery.

Unlike Tommy John, thoracic outlet surgery hasn’t been as common in the major leagues over the last decade. And while a majority of pitchers have been able to effectively recover from Tommy John surgery, the careers that have successfully continued following thoracic outlet surgery is a much smaller number.

Yet despite having Tommy John surgery, pitching the most innings in baseball history following said procedure and then undergoing thoracic outlet surgery (where he needed to get one of his ribs removed), there is still a widespread narrative that the downfall of Matt Harvey has been caused because of his brash personality and mindset.

That is just patently false.

Let’s be real: Matt Harvey is not the most friendly of guys when it comes to how he’s dealt with the media. I think we all acknowledge this. But that also isn’t anything new. When Harvey was pitching to a 2.53 ERA in his first three seasons, nearly everyone loved his outward personality, confident attitude and celebrity status. Now that he’s pitching to an ERA that has eclipsed 5.00, though, people suddenly have a problem with it and think it’s the cause of his issues.

Matt Harvey’s velocity hasn’t decreased by a mile per hour each of the last three years because of his personality. His walk rate hasn’t increased over the last three years because of his personality, either. Nor is his inability to rarely pitch past the fifth inning because of his personality. This is medical, and it can all be traced back to the moment he was struck with thoracic outlet syndrome.

It may not be what people want to hear, but Harvey is a sympathetic character in this story. That being said, his actions haven’t exactly made him someone who’s easy to root for.

In 2015, Harvey was largely scrutinized for showing up late to the team’s first postseason workouts. Last season, there was the incident where Harvey didn’t even show up to Citi Field for a game and was suspended by the team for three games.

This season, things have devolved even further, as Mickey Callaway and the club made the decision to transition the struggling Harvey to the bullpen, just one day after the 29-year-old defiantly stated that he was a starting pitcher.

“On a scale of one-to-10, I obviously am at a 10 with being pissed off,” Harvey told reporters after being notified of the team’s decision.

The first relief outing of his career appeared to be more of the same, as Harvey’s velocity remained around 93 mph, his command was lacking and he allowed the Cardinals to take the lead immediately after the Mets came back to tie the game. Despite his somewhat shaky bullpen debut, New York rallied for one of their best wins of the season, but after the extra inning victory, Harvey was nowhere to be found, leaving rookie catcher Tomás Nido to answer questions about the righthander’s outing.

The following day, Harvey reportedly laughed as journalists approached him in the clubhouse, telling them “I have nothing to say to you guys.” When pressed as to why, Harvey replied, “I don’t [expletive] want to.”

While I’m on Harvey’s side here, I also acknowledge that it’s a part of a professional athlete’s job to speak with reporters. Yes, Harvey does not owe it to the media to answer their questions, but when he chooses not to, it leads to his manager and his teammates having to answer for him.

When it comes to Matt Harvey, most people tend to feel decidedly one way or the other. But, like most things in life, the reality lies somewhere in between.

Due to the serious medical procedures in his past, Harvey will likely never be the same pitcher he once was, and that’s not his fault. But he could also make life a little easier on himself with his off-the-field actions, which would go a long way in reminding people that he’s truly a sympathetic figure in this story; not the villain.

Photo credit: Jeff Curry – USA Today Sports

Mets fans have been burned before, as you don’t have to look any further than last year when the club went from World Series expectations to a dismal 92-loss season. Prior to that, the 2006 squad that won 97 games fell short in the postseason, while the 2007 and 2008 teams couldn’t even make it to October thanks to back-to-back September swoons.

And it’s not as if we haven’t seen this kind of thing in the past. Last year’s team started the season 7-3 before injuries and poor performances became overwhelming, leading to six months of mediocrity. Hell, even the 2012 Mets had a 31-23 record in June and that team wound up losing 88 games that season.

Strong starts, especially in baseball, are not always indicators of future success. We’ve seen it time and time again. But there are valid reasons why Mets fans may be able to let their guards down and believe in what they’re seeing. This team might just be for real, and not just an April mirage for a fanbase dying of thirst.

When a team gets off to a start such as this, the detractors (or even just realists) will suggest that the team has been fortunate and that everything’s been going right. With the 2018 Mets, however, that actually hasn’t been the case.

In fact, a lot of things haven’t gone right for this team so far. Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom, the aces of the staff, have combined for a 3.48 ERA with neither of them throwing a single pitch in the seventh inning. Yoenis Cespedes, the team’s premiere offensive threat, is batting .178/.274/.400 while striking out in 39.2 percent of his plate appearances and has been dealing with the flu. Anthony Swarzak was placed on the disabled list just three games into the season. Power-hitting newcomer Todd Frazier has yet to hit a ball out of the yard. Jason Vargas, acquired to stabilize the starting rotation, has yet to throw a pitch for this team. These are all things that you can easily expect to sort themselves out, especially when looking at the career trends for each of these players.

This isn’t to say that nothing has gone right for the Mets, as their bullpen has been stunningly effective to start the season, posting a 1.49 ERA (second best in MLB) as a unit. Michael Conforto returned from injury nearly a month before originally expected and has looked as healthy as ever. Adrian Gonzalez, who many people (myself included) completely counted out after a horrendous spring training, has come through with several key hits while posting an .810 OPS early on. Hansel Robles, despite him still scaring me half-to-death in every appearance, looks like he might actually be a legitimate reliever. Even Matt Harvey and Steven Matz have shown signs of life thus far.

Even if you take a look at the club’s pythagorean record, an estimate of a team’s winning percentage based on runs scored and runs allowed, the Mets are 8-3. That suggests that while they may have been somewhat fortunate to win a pair of extra games thus far, this is still a good baseball team. By comparison, the Boston Red Sox, who are off to a 10-2 start, also have a pythagorean win-loss record of 9-3.

Seemingly every time they find themselves knocked down, they’ve gotten up and punched back. Their resiliency has been on full display early on this season, as was on display in the team’s dramatic 8-6 victory over the Marlins on Tuesday where they overcame two late deficits before pulling out the win thanks to a go-ahead, two-run double by Yoenis Cespedes in the 9th inning. That’s just something you can’t teach.

Something you can teach, however, is the aggressive base running that the Mets have shown in every single one of their games this season. That is an element that we haven’t seen from this team in the past, but one that first-year manager Mickey Callaway has implemented with a rousing level of success early on. This team may not have much speed on their roster but their level of aggression on the bases, whether it’s advancing to second on short wild pitches or challenging the arms of outfielders to go first-to-third on base hits, has been a breath of fresh air and is leading to run-scoring opportunities that the Mets haven’t had in years prior.

Let’s state the obvious here: The Mets are not going to continue winning 10 out of every 11 games this season. That would result in a 147-15 season. Mickey Callaway isn’t going to push the right button every single time he makes an in-game decision. The bullpen won’t be completely bulletproof all year long. But this Mets roster has the look of a team that has what it takes to win.

The core of this roster is not all-that-far removed from a World Series run in 2015 and an unlikely, albeit brief, postseason appearance in 2016. They’ve added a manager who has the pulse of this team and the know-how to run it, they’ve got a group of players that is bonding and buying in to the message and they have the talent to win baseball games — even ones that they have no business winning in the first place.

Yeah, fans have been burned before. And maybe despite everything they’ve seen, they’ll get burned again. But something tells me that this year might actually be different. This may just be the year where Mets fans can allow themselves to dream again.

Photo credit: Jasen Vinlove – USA Today Sports

Here are some important storylines that are flying under the radar and before you say it, yes, we here at Baseball Prospectus acknowledge #SmallSampleSize, especially in spring training games…

Jeurys Familia doesn’t look right

Following a 2017 campaign that saw the Mets closer suspended during the first month of the season and on the disabled list for a total of 106 days, Jeurys Familia is looking to rebound in his final year under team control. After making just 26 appearances while posting a 4.38 ERA last year, Familia has largely flown under the radar this spring. While Familia hadn’t allowed a run until his most recent outing, where he was blasted for five earned runs, four hits, two home runs and a walk in just 1.1 innings, there has been something off in his first five exhibition appearances.

In 5.1 innings to start the spring, Familia has allowed five runs, six hits, four walks and has hit two batters while racking up one strikeout. It may be just a handful of innings in games that don’t actually matter, but Familia’s inability to miss bats right now is a bit alarming. Last season, Familia struck out 9.12 batters per nine innings while generating whiffs on 55.4 percent of his pitches. In 2016, Familia’s last fully healthy season, he got whiffs on 81.6 percent of his pitches.

Throughout the course of his career, Familia’s fastball and sinker have averaged between 95-97 miles per hour. So far this spring, however, Familia’s been sitting mostly between 91-93 mph with those pitches while generating very few swings-and-misses.

We’ll have to wait and see how and if he progresses over the next two weeks leading up to Opening Day, but lack of swings-and-misses for a power pitcher can often be an indicator of a regression. If that’s the case, the Mets may have some late-inning troubles early on this season.

The emergence of Brandon Nimmo

While there are many that have written him off over the last few years, it’s important to remember that Brandon Nimmo was once drafted 13th overall by the Mets in 2011 and is still only 24 years old. With Michael Conforto out until at least May, the club needed someone to step up in center field this spring. Many hoped that Juan Lagares, new swing and all, would be the one to take the opportunity and run, it’s actually been Nimmo who’s flourished in that role. In 32 at-bats to start out spring training, Nimmo is batting .344/.421/.750 with two home runs, three doubles, two triples, six RBI, eight runs scored, and a 1.171 OPS.

Not only that but after going 0-for-2 in their Grapefruit League opener, Nimmo has reached base safely at least once in all ten of the team’s games since.

If Nimmo is truly able to tap into the potential the organization saw in him back when they drafted him out of Wyoming—one of three states in the country that doesn’t even offer high school baseball—than he could not only solve the Mets’ center field issue, but he could also prove to be this team’s answer at leadoff to start the season.

Some young relievers are producing

This spring may not be kind to Steven Matz, Jeurys Familia, and Hansel Robles so far, but it’s two of the team’s younger relief pitchers, Paul Sewald and Jacob Rhame, that have been excelling on the mound and both may have a chance to make this roster.

Sewald, 27, impressed at times after being called up by the Mets last season, pitching to a 4.55 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 1.209 WHIP and 69 strikeouts in 65.1 innings pitched. After nearly being dealt to the Indians for Jason Kipnis, as reported by The Record’s Matt Ehalt, Sewald has made his case to make the Mets bullpen to start the season as he’s posted a 1.42 ERA with five strikeouts and zero walks in 6.1 innings pitched this spring.

Rhame, whose path to the big leagues is likely tougher, has impressed as well, striking out eight batters while one in his first six appearances in Grapefruit League play. If Rhame is able to harness control of his pitches, something he was unable to do in his very brief major league stint last season that saw him issue seven walks in nine innings, he’s got the stuff to help this team in a big way out of the bullpen.

If things keep up, I would expect Sewald to be on the team’s Opening Day roster while Rhame will likely start out in Triple-A. If he continues to show what he’s displayed thus far in spring training, though, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Rhame in the big leagues contributing later this summer.

Adrian Gonzalez may not have much left

At first glance, it appeared as if the Mets were just taking a flyer on the 35-year-old Adrian Gonzalez, signing him to the major league minimum after being released by the Atlanta Braves. As the winter moved forward, however, it sounded more and more likely that, barring something crazy, Gonzalez would be the club’s first baseman on Opening Day over Dominic Smith, the team’s No. 2 overall prospect entering 2017.

Smith’s spring didn’t get off to the best of starts after being benched in the team’s first game thanks to showing up late to the facility, already putting him in the line of fire for ridicule. Then, after playing in just one spring training game, Smith suffered a quad injury and hasn’t been heard from since, all but clinching the first base spot for Gonzalez.

Here’s the problem, though: Adrian Gonzalez looks like he’s done.

In 26 at-bats this spring, Gonzalez is hitting .192/.276/.231 with no home runs, one double, no RBI, no runs scored, five strikeouts and a .507 OPS. Even putting the stats aside, it’s easy to tell by just watching the games that A-Gon may not have much left as his bat is visibly slow and he’s not even making hard contact at the plate.

Spring training results for anyone, especially a veteran player, are often of little meaning, but coming off of a season where he played in just 71 games and posted a .642 OPS, it’s reasonable to think this may be the end for a once great player. It’s likely a matter of if, not when, Smith takes over the first base job. It just won’t be on Opening Day.

The Mets catching situation actually looks pretty good

Much maligned over the past two seasons, both Travis d’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki have actually performed very well to start spring training.

Viewed by most as a position of weakness, the Mets chose not to go outside the organization for help at catcher, rather giving the tandem of d’Arnaud and Plawecki one last shot to prove what they’ve got. And so far, they have.

In 19 at-bats this spring, d’Arnaud is batting .316/.480/.526 with one home run, a double, three RBI, three runs scored, and a .984 OPS.

And while d’Arnaud has impressed at the plate thus far in camp, Plawecki may be in position to take the starting job altogether. To start spring, the 27-year-old Plawecki is hitting .381/.458/.619 with one home run, two doubles, seven RBI, a run scored and a 1.077 OPS in 21 at-bats.

“Obviously d’Arnaud hits really good against lefties,” manager Mickey Callaway said recently. “I feel like Plawecki hangs in there really good against good righties. I think we’ll base who is catching more on that type of stuff than who [starting pitchers] prefer to throw to.”

Based on those remarks by Callaway it appears likely that the Mets will go into the 2018 season with a traditional platoon situation at catcher. However, if Plawecki is going to get the majority of starts against right-handed pitching, as Callaway suggested, than he’s essentially become the Mets’ de facto starting catcher.

Over the last two years, Mets fans have been pining for the club to go out and fix the catching situation. While the club never did land Jonathan Lucroy or any other major league backstop, it’s suddenly become possible that they may have an answer at the position from the guys they’ve had all along. Whether or not that’s how this situation will play out is yet to be seen, but it’s going to be something the Mets let play out over the course of the 2018 season.

 Photo credit: Jasen Vinlove – USA Today Sports

Spoiler alert: It’s because they’re probably not.

As it always seems to with this organization, it comes down to the dollar and cents. Following a year where their Opening Day payroll hit the $154 million mark, GM Sandy Alderson publicly vowed that this number would decrease moving forward. According to multiple reports, that likely leaves the Mets with an estimated $25-to-30 million this offseason to fill starting infield and outfield spots, another arm for the starting rotation and at least two new relievers.

As a point of reference, David Wright — who hasn’t played in a major league game since May 1, 2016 — will make $20 million this upcoming season, which makes up just over 13 percent of the team’s expected payroll in 2018.

In 2016, the Mets suffered a plethora of injuries to key players on their roster, but were able to fight through it and reach the postseason for a second consecutive season. Their approach the following offseason left much to be desired, however, as they didn’t sign a single free agent from another team and brought back the exact same roster as the year prior, effectively banking that the team would stay healthy and make yet another run at a championship.

It was the wrong decision for the Mets to make at the time, but if they were to repeat it this offseason it would be an even greater mistake.

It’s easy to make the argument that this team has been unlucky, and you wouldn’t even necessarily be wrong in doing so — the Mets paid $57.6 million to players on the disabled list during the 2017 season — but that should not be used as a crutch by ownership or the front office to defend a lack of spending this winter.

If the Mets want to seriously be considered as contenders again, they have to adequately fill the multitude of holes on their roster this offseason rather than searching through the free agency bargain bin for reclamation projects and hoping that the once-vaunted starting rotation will finally be healthy.

That’s not the mentality of a winning organization. If the Mets truly want to win, they need to back that up with action, not hope.

Mike Moustakas and Lorenzo Cain, for example, are two players that perfectly fit what this team needs right now. And yet the Mets already appear unlikely to be serious suitors for either of them, presumably due to monetary restrictions.

Over the past few seasons, the Mets have tried to sell this fanbase on their desire to win. Based on the reports to start this offseason, however, there is zero indication that this franchise intends to fully commit to 2018, simply based on their budget with respect to the expected market conditions in free agency.

Going forward, this franchise has an important decision to make. The first and more preferable choice is that the Mets fully commit to winning by not letting payroll restrictions control who they can or cannot acquire in a legitimate effort to make themselves better. Unfortunately, though, this does not appear as if it’s a likely outcome at this time.

Therefore, if New York does not intend to go all-in on this upcoming season than they should avoid the Band-Aid-type contracts in a halfhearted effort to improve and rather go the completely opposite direction. Sell. Trade Jacob deGrom for a legitimate haul while you can and see what kind of returns you can get for some of the other players on this roster.

While waving the white flag and essentially starting from scratch is not something any fan of this team wants to see, it is far more preferable than going through another meandering season of mediocrity based on buying low and hoping for the best on the free agent market. That does nothing but waste time.

Either way, the New York Mets need to ultimately decide who they want to be and where they’re going, and fully commit to that route. No more empty gestures. No more reclamation projects. No more half measures.

In other words, it’s now or never.

Photo credit: Mark J. Rebilas – USA Today Sports

After moving Duda, the club is still trying to trade veterans Addison Reed, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson, and Neil Walker—all of whom can be free agents after this season—by the July 31 trade deadline.

When the Mets announced on Friday night that they had acquired Miami Marlins closer AJ Ramos in exchange for prospects Merandy Gonzalez and Ricardo Cespedes, it came as a surprise; at least, at first.

Why would a team that’s in the middle of selling, make a move to “buy” a closer from another team? Simple: This is a reload, not a rebuild.

Despite their difficult season, the Mets expect to contend in 2018 and Ramos, unlike Reed, is under team control next year. With the acquisitions of Ramos and Smith—who has a 1.60 ERA in the minor leagues—New York is already working on shoring up their bullpen for next year’s expected run.

While Ramos is having a down year by his standards—his 3.63 ERA is his highest in five years—he should still be an excellent addition to this Mets bullpen over the next year and a half. Since his debut in 2012, Ramos has a 2.78 ERA, 92 saves, and is striking out 10.4 batters per 9 innings.

Sandy Alderson has made a lot of moves in his time as Mets general manager, both buying and selling, but this may very well be his savviest transaction yet.

Not only does the acquisition of Ramos help the bullpen over the next year and a half, but this move also means the Mets won’t have to spend big money on a set-up man this offseason and it takes a top bullpen arm off of the trade market, which can only increase Addison Reed’s trade value.

Since being acquired by the Mets in 2015, Reed has been one of the best relievers in all of baseball as the right-hander has a 2.09 ERA, 1.014 WHIP and 21 saves in 145 appearances with the club. He was already expected to warrant a solid return in a trade, and with the Mets removing Ramos as an option for other teams, it’s increasingly possible that they may be able to get an even better return.

While this has been a lost season for this organization, the Mets have already begun their reload for a run in 2018. With the team in sell mode, this was unexpected and a bit out-of-the-box… but that’s what makes it such a smart and creative move by Sandy Alderson. We’ll find out soon enough what else he has up his sleeve.

Photo credit: Jasen Vinlove – USA Today Sports

The Mets have traded first baseman Lucas Duda to the Tampa Bay Rays for right-handed pitching prospect Drew Smith, the club announced on Thursday night. And thus, an era came to an end.

Duda, 31, was much maligned by some fans during his eight-year tenure in New York, yet the slugging first baseman found himself ranked 13th on the Mets’ all-time home runs list prior being traded to the Wild Card-contending Rays.

It’s unfortunate that a contingent of the fan base will always remember Duda for his errant throw in Game 5 of the 2015 World Series, but if we’re going to focus on individual moments, I choose to think of a handful of others…

May 28, 2013: Moments after David Wright delivered a game-tying hit, Duda stepped in against Mariano Rivera in the 9th inning at Citi Field. On a 1-1 pitch, the Mets first baseman looped a single into right field, sending Wright home and delivering a walk-off knock against the greatest closer in baseball history.

May 12, 2014: With the Mets clinging to a 9-7 lead and the team’s closer-at-the-time Kyle Farnsworth faced a first and third situation with just one out in the 9th. Brian McCann scorched a ball down toward first base where Duda made a tremendous diving stop, fired to second for one out and retreated back to first just in time to receive the throw back to him for the final out, clinching a wild victory for the club.

September 28, 2014: Sitting on 29 home runs for the season, Duda walked to the plate in what would be his final at-bat of the 2014 campaign and launched a 2-2 breaking ball well over the right field wall for a two-run shot. It remains Duda’s only career season of 30 home runs.

September 26, 2015: As the Mets were on the precipice of their first division crown in nine years, Duda provided the keynote as he launched a first inning grand slam against John Lamb and the Reds. New York went on to win the game 10-2, clinching the National League East for the first time since 2006.

October 21, 2015: Looking to advance to their first World Series since the 2000 season, Lucas Duda put on a show in Game 4 of the NLCS at Wrigley Field. After crushing a three-run home run in the first inning, Duda added a pair of doubles and a walk, finishing with five RBIs as the Mets swept the Cubs to advance to the Fall Classic.

In the end, Lucas Duda finishes his Mets career as a severely underrated player. In his eight seasons with the club, the left-hander batted .246/.343/.457 with 125 home runs, 146 doubles, 378 RBI, 325 runs, an .801 OPS and a 121 OPS+.

And, contrary to popular belief, Duda was an above average defender, too, as he finishes his time in New York with 11 defensive runs saved, a 1.9 UZR and a 0.6 UZR/150 in 472 games at first base.

Duda was good for a 6.9 fWAR in his career with the Mets, which is not far behind Eric Hosmer—a player expected by some to get a pretty large payday this offseason—who has a 7.5 fWAR despite playing in 226 more games.

I’ll never understand how any Mets fan could dislike Lucas Duda, as he came up as a practically unknown player, surpassed the highly touted Ike Davis, played any position the team asked him to—Duda amazingly made 223 career starts in the outfield—and transformed himself into an integral piece to this organization when nothing was expected of him. That’s the kind of guy you should want to root for, and it’s a big part of why I’ll miss watching Lucas Duda don the orange and blue.

While it makes sense for the Mets to make this move, with their being so far back in the Wild Card race and Dominic Smith on the cusp of making his major league debut, the trade of Duda remains bittersweet.

“I was very proud to be a New York Met,” Duda told reporters just following the news of the trade. If we’re being honest, Mets fans should be proud, too.

They lost a good one.

Photo credit: Jake Roth – USA Today Sports