RHP Adonis Uceta

After he made 11 starts for the Kingsport Mets in 2016, the Mets promoted Uceta to Columbia to begin the 2017 season and moved him to the bullpen. While I never saw Uceta during his time as a starting pitcher, the early returns on his move to the bullpen are strong. The 23-year-old righty sat in the 93-96 mph range with his fastball, which he complemented with a changeup in the 81-84 range that has the potential to be an above average offering for him. The 6’1″ Uceta throws from a low three-quarters slot and does not have excessive amount of effort in his delivery. While it’s obviously hard to project out a single-A reliever, Uceta was the most impressive pitcher out of the bullpen for Columbia or Hagerstown during my four-day stay and I would feel comfortable projecting him to be a major league middle reliever.

RHP Matt Blackham

After missing a year and a half with a back injury, Matt Blackham has returned to the mound in 2017 and is doing so as a reliever, in the same role he pitched out of in college. The 2014 29th pick, now 24 years old, is an undersized righty who does not look any bigger than his listed height and weight: 5’11″ and 150 lbs. Despite his small stature, Blackham is able to sit in the 94-95 range with his sinker, which lives true to its name with significant sink. It’s a plus pitch for Blackham that can carry him all the way to the majors. He paired the pitch with a low 80s change that has the makings of becoming a solid average offering. He is clearly too good for this level and should be promoted to St. Lucie in short order.

RHP Gary Cornish

After hurling 25 dominant relief innings for the 2016 Brooklyn Cyclones in his draft year, Gary Cornish was suspended 50 games before the start of this season for performance-enhancing drugs. On the 51st game of the Columbia Fireflies’ season, Cornish reemerged with his first professional start. The 23-year-old Cornish has a strong pitcher’s frame and throws from a bit higher than a standard three-quarters arm slot. Pitching into the seventh inning, he displayed impressive command and feel for his four-seam fastball and curveball. The four-seamer, which sat in the 91-93 mph range, was frequently elevated and featured noticeable rise and life. His curve, which sat in the 79-81 mph range, has the makings of a solid average offering that can play up due to his ability and willingness to throw it in and out of the strike zone and in all counts. Given that he is exclusively a two-pitch pitcher, Cornish is likely destined for the bullpen. However, with his advanced command and feel for both of his pitches, he seems like the odds-on favorite to be the Binghamton…sigh…Rumble Ponies closer in 2019.

IF Michael Paez

Michael Paez, the Mets’ fourth round pick out of Coastal Carolina in 2016, had a rough start to his professional career with the Cyclones in his draft year, finishing the short season below the Mendoza line and with a .223 TAv. 2017 has been a different story for the former Chanticleer, who is presently sporting a .306/.400/.533 line for the Fireflies. He’s clearly too advanced for this level as an early round college pick and should be promoted to St. Lucie soon. Despite only being listed at 5’8,” Paez is able to make the most of his fringe-average raw power in games. He seems to have calmed down the uppercut slightly this season, but power remains his main focus at the plate. The hit tool, while more than fine for this level, still looks like a present 30. Given his experience and lack of his physicality and projection, it’s hard and likely unwise to expect significant growth in this regard. A college shortstop, Paez looked surprisingly advanced at third base, with the ability to play up the middle as well. Versatility is a key for a player with Paez’s profile to advance through the ranks and could be what allows him to reach the major leagues. While his upside is limited, he could carve out a major league role for himself in the future as fifth infielder who could play all across the dirt.

Notes

A converted catcher, RHP Joseph Zanghi sat 91-93 mph with his fastball, topping out at 94, and featured a low-mid 80s slider as well. He threw from a standard three-quarters release point with a fair bit of effort. Fellow reliever RHP Max Kuhns sat at 89-92 mph with fastball with a breaking ball in the 78-79 mph range. He threw from a three-quarters arm slot with high effort but had a decent amount of deception in his delivery.

The curveball, which was his calling card coming out of high school in 2015, was a major reason why Szapucki was able to strike out 86 batters in only 52 innings last year and receive a nice placement on the BP 101 this past winter. For whatever reason, he didn’t throw the curve a single time in his return to the mound this Sunday. While that very well could just be because he’s still building up arm strength — his Single-A assignment was likely because he needed to be assigned to an affiliate with extended spring training coming to a close — it remains worth monitoring if and when Szapucki adds the pitch back into his mix this season.

On the whole, Szapucki looked very much like the athletic arm considered one of the most promising left-handed pitching prospects in all of baseball. While he struggled a bit to repeat his release point in his return to the hill, which affected his control and command at times, he is still a low arm slot lefty who has quality arm actions and mild levels of effort in his delivery. As long as he can remain healthy and eventually reintroduce a curveball to his repertoire, he should have a stake to the claim of being the top prospect in the Mets farm system this winter, assuming Amed Rosario is eventually called up to the majors.

I had mentioned heading into the season that I was looking forward to seeing Tomas Nido this year in Binghamton and, after rainouts on my first three visits to Rumbletown, I finally was able to see him play twice last week. Nido, who has been a bit banged up of late, has done a lot of DHing in recent days, but did catch for one game that I saw. In that game, he flashed a plus arm, easily nabbing Dorssys Paulino on a stolen base attempt. Nido, who has a reputation of being a plus framer, did little to disprove that notion on Wednesday. He has all the makings of being a solid or better major league catcher defensively, which is the main reason why he is on the Mets’ 40-man roster and the top catching prospect in the organization.

Offensively, Nido possesses 60 raw power that, to this point, has not fully transferred into game power. That, however, wasn’t that case for one at-bat this week, in which he crushed a homer off the batter’s eye to straightaway center field. Nido, who doesn’t walk often, was carried by a high contact rate and league-leading .320 batting average to a plus offensive season in the Florida State League last season. The backstop employs a bit of a bat wrap pre-pitch, reminiscent of one previously usedby Travis d’Arnaud, and holds his hands close to his shoulders with his hands directly on top of each other, pointing the bat straight up. Overall, Nido has the ability to be a fine offensive player, especially for a catcher. While I’d chalk up his early season struggles at the plate to being banged up, he eventually needs to start posting results this year, especially now that he’s on the 40-man roster.

LHP Alberto Baldonado

Baldonado, who is amazingly a leftover from Omar Minaya’s regime, is the most notable prospect in the Rumble Ponies’ bullpen so far. The 24-year-old left-hander has a deceptive delivery, including a pause in his windup that does a good job of throwing off the timing of opposing hitters. Baldonado, who has yet to allow an earned run through 13.2 innings pitched this season, sat 91-94 mph with his fastball in two outings against Akron last week. His best weapon was a changeup that he had excellent feel for in both outings, sitting between 82-84 mph, that allows him to get out both left-handed and right-handed hitters; he’s actually fared better against opposite-side hitters across his minor league career. Baldonado also has a mid 70s mph sweeping curveball that breaks away from the left-handed hitters. If he is able to keep commanding all of his pitches and limit the number of walks he surrenders, as he has done so far this season, he has a chance to be a full-inning major league middle reliever in the not-too-distant future.

RHP Corey Oswalt

In what is overall a rather boring Double-A rotation for the Rumble Ponies, Oswalt stuck out perhaps as someone at least worth not completely ignoring (*Editor’s note: Here at BP Mets, we like to hedge our bets). And while he has posted decent results so far at the level, he hasn’t shown much yet in the way of stuff to justify the $475,000 signing bonus he received from the Mets in 2012. The converted third baseman has an ideal pitcher’s frame (listed at 6’5, 245 lbs.) and has a relatively clean delivery. However, his staff has not yet developed to an encouraging enough level. Oswalt throws a heavy diet of fastballs, mostly clocking in between 87 and 91 mph, and topping out at 92 mph in his most recent start. While, as our own Jeffrey Paternostro mentioned recently, Oswalt has thrown a bit harder than that in previous starts where the weather wasn’t in the high 40s, he doesn’t have great life on the pitch, regardless of velocity. Neither of his breaking pitches, an 84-86 mph slider and 77-80 mph curveball, stick out as plus pitches, although the slider is around average or slightly better. Despite the great frame, it’s hard to see a hittable high 80s to low 90s fastball, decent slider, and below average curveball playing well at a higher level. While Oswalt is still just 23, it’s hard to keep talking about him as a legitimate prospect, barring a velocity spike or other significant change to his repertoire.

RHP Corey Taylor

Taylor, a 7th round senior sign by the Mets in 2015, has risen quickly through the minor league ranks despite relatively low strikeout rates for a relief pitcher. Taylor, who Corey Oswalt does not have a great frame (listed at 5’11, 245 lbs.), features a fastball that was 91-94 mph in my looks and an above-average slider at 81-83 mph. The fastball appeared to be two different pitches: a four-seamer and a two-seamer that had some sink on it. The four-seamer, however, came in at quite flat and, in the low-mid 90s, is not really a pitch that you can expect to yield great results at the highest levels of baseball. As a sinker-slider reliever, Taylor has a chance to reach the majors as a relief pitcher. With his current stuff, he may not figure to be all that much more than an up-and-down guy, but even that is a strong return for a guy to whom the Mets handed only a $20,000 signing bonus.

Photo credit: Steve Mitchell – USA Today Sports

On the surface, a light-hitting infielder with one career home run and average speed doesn’t sound all that entertaining to watch and follow as a prospect. Yet, “entertaining” is pretty much the best way to describe the Rumble Ponies’ shortstop, Luis Guillorme. Guillorme—a Spring Training celebrity after catching a flying bat in the dugout—brings one of the best defensive games in all of professional baseball to the table. He has impressively quick hands and excellent reaction times that allow him to dazzle defensively without exceptional speed or athleticism. The biggest question for Guillorme in 2017 and going forward remains his bat, which is the final obstacle standing between the former 10th round pick and Queens. While he will never be confused for a power hitter, Guillorme’s .052 ISO in St. Lucie in 2016 would have ranked as the lowest such figure in the major leagues for any player with greater than 150 plate appearances last year. Improving his gap power while maintaining a respectably high on-base clip will be essential for Guillorme to stay on track for a major league role. And even just a passable bat could give Guillorme a real shot at having a long major league career as a defensive-minded infielder.

Although he is currently on the shelf as he recovers from a recent knee operation, Tommy John survivor Chris Flexen is among the best pitching prospects in the Mets system and perhaps the “ace” of the 2017 Rumble Ponies. Flexen, who was added to the Mets 40-man roster this winter, boasts a fastball that has touched as high as 97, and a full four-pitch repertoire that makes him an intriguing starting pitching prospect. While he is risky even by pitching prospect standards, having already undergone Tommy John Surgery and now knee surgery by the age of 22, Flexen’s current profile is not all to far off from former Mets pitching prospects, such as Robert Gsellman and Michael Fulmer, as they entered the upper minors. While Flexen has not yet consistently missed bats at a high clip, posting only a 16.6% K-rate in 134 innings for St. Lucie last season, his stuff suggests that could improve in a hurry (see: Gsellman, Robert). With his option clock now running, 2017 will be an important year for Flexen if he looks to establish himself as an emerging option in the Mets’ suddenly less crowded starting pitching situation. Given his injury history and relatively high effort mechanics, it is quite possible that Flexen’s quickest and most likely path to the major leagues will come as a short reliever. Consistency, health, and breaking ball development—well, he’s in the right org for that one— will be essential for Flexen as he looks to make an impression this season in Western New York.

Short Hops

2015 4th round pick and ACC home run champion David Thompson figures to be the everyday third baseman for Binghamton in 2017. While Thompson’s defense has been better than advertised to this point in his professional career, he must hit for more power in Binghamton if he is to continue to rise through the ranks…Northern Irish southpaw P.J. Conlon will look to continue his improbable rise to the major leagues with a stop in Binghamton to open the 2017 season. Conlon, a soft-tossing lefty with a good change, posted an incredible 1.79 ERA split between Columbia and St. Lucie in his first full professional season. Double-A is always a test for this profile…yet another fast rising member of the Mets’ 2015 draft class, Corey Taylor, joins the Binghamton Rumble Ponies. Like Conlon, Taylor has had little issue yet with professional hitters, posting a 1.87 ERA out of the bullpen for the St. Lucie Mets. Taylor’s stuff showed well in the Arizona Fall League, flashing a fastball that could bump the upper-90s and a plus slider. In an admittedly small sample size—though a very tough pitching environment— he missed bats at a higher clip (17 strikeouts in 14 innings) than he had previously in the minor leagues. If Taylor is able to keep up his stellar results and maintain his fall bump in stuff and strikeouts, he might not be long for Binghamton and could have a real shot to pitch out of the Mets’ bullpen sometime this season…center fielder Champ Stuart might be the fastest player in the Mets system and he’s a plus center fielder to boot, but he’s never shown the ability to hit offspeed and might never be more than a late-inning pinch-runner and defensive caddy. He’s ready for that role right now though and the 2017 Mets sure could use that.

Photo Credit: Steve Mitchell- USA Today Sports

Joining Justin Dunn in the St. Lucie rotation to open the season—and hopefully in Binghamton before the year is over—is Marcos Molina (#15). Like Dunn, the 22-year-old pitcher comes with questions as to his ability to remain as a starter, yet those doubts are even louder with Molina. While athletic with plus stuff, Molina’s mechanics are far from ideal as he makes his return from Tommy John surgery. After sitting in the upper 80s with his fastball on the minor league backfields at the end of spring training, Molina has found his way back onto the disabled list to open the season. The complete lack of involvement of his lower body in his delivery puts an exorbitant amount of stress on his arm, which is unlikely to be sustainable for a starting pitcher. While his mechanics are not ideal for a relief pitcher—any kind of pitcher, really—shorter stints out of the pen would put less stress on Molina’s arm and allow him to sit closer to his peak velocity. While Molina is older now than this comp was then, Roberto Osuna’s 2015 promotion from a single-A starting pitcher who had undergone Tommy John surgery to a late-inning role in a major league bullpen is not out of the question for Molina. While that is obviously not what the Mets are planning to do with him at the moment, moving Molina to the bullpen sooner rather than later might make the most sense for all parties. With his stuff, Molina could legitimately pitch out of a major league bullpen before the 2017 season is finished.

Best known as the “non-elite prospect” the Mets acquired in the R.A. Dickey trade in 2012, the now-22-year-old Wuilmer Becerra (#10) has made the Baseball Prospectus Mets Top Ten two seasons running. Becerra, who underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in July, was protected from the Rule 5 Draft this winter despite not yet being ready to play the field to open the 2017 season. As the projected everyday designated hitter for the St. Lucie Mets for the first stretch of the season, Becerra will look to combine his above-average raw power with the plus hitting ability he has flashed in his recent seasons. While dealing with the shoulder injury during the first half of last season, Becerra hit only a single home run for St. Lucie in 2016, which isn’t going to work for a major league right fielder, his usual defensive home. However, if Becerra is able to put the whole package together, the tools are loud enough for him to project as an everyday right fielder in the majors. But even beyond the injury concerns, it’s a package with plenty of risk at the moment. A healthy and productive season that ends in the upper minors, highlighted by an increase in in-game power, could propel Becerra further up the Mets prospect lists and potentially onto global prospect lists next winter.

The Mets’ 2015 eighth-round pick out of Stetson University, Patrick Mazeika is a bat-first prospect whose ultimate future value is going to be determined by his defensive home. Mazeika, who has walked almost as many times as he’s struck out so far in his pro career—and gets an additional OBP boost from his Brandon Guyer-esque attraction to pitched baseballs—also offers a potential major-league-quality hit tool. If he is able to stick behind the plate, that is a good offensive starting point for a major league catcher. If he is forced to move off the position, which is a legitimate possibility given his current below-average glove and 6’3″ frame, he veers dangerously close to non-prospect status. His relative lack of power and line drive approach would not play well at first base—a position he has played some in his career—and the bat isn’t much more attractive in a corner outfield spot; he may not have the defensive chops for that anyway. His most realistic path to the major leagues is as a bat-first catcher whose high OBP makes up for his mediocre home run power and lackluster defense behind the plate.

2016 second-round pick Peter Alonso (#19), however, does not lack for power. Alonso has the best raw pop in the entire Mets minor league system. A right-handed hitting and fielding first baseman, he represents a bit of a rare breed as a prospect. Rarely are right-handed hitting first basemen considered to be prospects worthy of a high draft pick and the $909,200 signing bonus that Alonso received. Given that profile, his prospect status and baseball future relies solely on his bat and his ability to reach into his 70 raw power in games. After jumping over the South Atlantic League to open his first full professional season, Alonso will come to the Florida State League with the expectation that his bat will carry him into the upper minors and eventually to the major leagues. If he is able to adjust to better pitching than he saw in the SEC and shorten his swing from what he has shown to this past, he has a chance to develop into a middle-of-the-order bat sooner rather than later.

After selecting RHP Andrew Church (#21) with the 48th pick in the 2013 draft, the early returns for the Mets were less than stellar. At the end of the 2015 season, the now-21-year-old Church had yet to get out of short-season ball, and only struck out 75 batters in 132 professional innings.  2016 was a different story. Church emerged from extended spring training on May 24 to strike out nine batters in five innings for Columbia in his 2016 debut. For the season, he started 15 games, posting a 2.92 ERA and an improved, yet still pedestrian, 20.2% K-rate. Church, whose fastball touches as high as the mid 90s and slider flashes plus, will look to build on his 2016 campaign with an aggressive Double-A assignment. As Jarrett Seidler wrote recently, this season will be Church’s last before he is eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, so his performance—or lack thereof—in 2017 should give us a lot more clarity on his major league future.

Yet another 2016 draft pick making the jump from the Brooklyn Cyclones to the St. Lucie Mets in 2017 is fifth-round pick Colby Woodmansee. Woodmansee—who, given his tall frame, is likely to eventually move off of shortstop—skips over the South Atlantic League despite a mediocre 2016 season in his time at both the collegiate and professional levels. Following a strong sophomore year at Arizona State, Woodmansee was penciled in as a first or second round draft pick. However, a lack of improvement in his junior season allowed him to slip to the Mets in the fifth round, where they are hoping he can show again why he was considered by some to be a first round talent just a few months before the draft…St. Lucie’s lineup will also feature the return of 23-year-old John Mora. Mora, who got some burn in major league spring training, has limited power and average-at-best tools elsewhere. If he doesn’t end this season in Binghamton or Vegas, his chances of making the major leagues down the road can be considered minimal at best…the bullpen will feature Tyler Bashlor, who received a well-over-slot $550,000 signing bonus after being selected in the 11th round in 2013. Bashlor boasts a fastball that can touch 98 mph and a developing breaking ball. He has a chance to rise quickly to the majors if he is able to stay healthy and keep his walks under control.

Photo Credit: Reinhold Matay – USA Today Sports

Jeurys Familia has 4.030 years of major league service time and is on pace to gain free agent eligibility following the conclusion of the 2018 season. In order to gain a full year of service time in a given season, a player must be on a major league active roster or disabled list for at least 172 days in a given season. Being that 182 days will elapse between the Mets’ first game of the season on April 3rd and last game of the season on October 1st, Familia and any other player on the team will be given a 10-day cushion towards reaching a full year of service time. For example, if the Mets decided to call up Paul Sewald from Triple-A four or nine days into the season and keep him in the major leagues for the remainder of the year, he would be given credit for a full year of service despite not opening the season on the major league roster. Since days suspended do not count towards major league service time, a similar rule would apply to Familia this season. He gets a built-in 10-day cushion before his service time is affected in by a suspension.

Given that Familia has a current service time of 4.030 years, he would need to reach at least 5.000 years of service time by the end of the 2017 season to remain on pace for free agency following the 2018 season. Since it is impossible to accrue more than one full year of service time in a single year, reaching that five-year plateau in 2017 is Familia’s only hope of remaining on schedule. For that not to happen, Familia would have to suspended for the entirety of his 10-day cushion plus one more than the 30 days of “extra” service time he currently has on top his four years of service time.

In total, this means that a 41-day suspension would push Familia’s free agency back a year, while a suspension of 40 or less days would keep Familia on schedule to reach free agency following the conclusion of the 2018 season. The 41st day of the Mets’ season in 2017 comes on May 13, when they will be in Milwaukee playing their 37th game of the season. Familia’s service time and free agency schedule will depend on whether or not he is active for that game. A suspension of 37 or more games that leaves him inactive on May 13 will lead to Familia’s free agency being pushed back until after the 2019 season. Anything less than a 37 game ban would result in no change to Familia’s free agency schedule.

Whether or not Familia’s suspension will end up being 37 or more games remains to be seen at this point. It is quite possible that the prospect of Familia’s free agency being postponed a year and the attached MLBPA challenge that would almost assuredly arise as a result could pressure Major League Baseball into handing down a suspension that is no more than 36 games long. A year ago, when a suspension of 45 games or more to Aroldis Chapman would have pushed back his free agency a year, the league decided to give the Yankees closer only a 30-game ban. Meanwhile, in a case with similar circumstances to Familia’s arrest but no service time concerns attached, then-Rockies shortstop Jose Reyes was given a 51-game suspension last season. A lot will depend on Familia’s level of cooperation with the league’s investigation, but MLB might have to choose between handing down a suspension to Familia that would postpone his free agency a full season–and possibly provoke a dispute with the union–and a lesser suspension that might not punish him appropriately for his actions.

(Special Thanks to Jeff Euston.)

Photo Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports

Dominic Smith is a hefty first baseman who, despite being on the shorter and heavier side, is a plus defender due to his great hands and instincts. He has an aesthetically-pleasing left-handed swing that is easy and fun to dream on. However, with the plus first base glove and the pretty swing, come concerns that cloud Smith’s future. The first issue is the body. Smith is only 21 years old and is already listed on the Binghamton Mets website as being six-foot and 250 lbs. (Let’s not forget how these team listings tend to grossly undersell the weight and oversell the height of basically all players.)

And with the bad body comes bad body language and bottom-of-the-scale speed. On one play, he hit into a run-of-the-mill 4-6-3 double play and made it roughly two-thirds of the way down the baseline by the time the play was completed. The speed is not much of an impediment for him defensively since he’s a first baseman, and it’s something that a slugging first baseman or designated hitter can overcome (see: David Ortiz, Prince Fielder, Mo Vaughn, etc.). The problem with that theory as it comes to Dom is that he isn’t really the type that is going to post Fielder-esque home run numbers.

Smith, as the result of pulling the ball more, actually did see a bump in power this year. He hit 14 homers in 542 PAs this year after hitting 10 over 1,224 career PAs prior to 2016. For a prospect at seven other positions, this would be seen as an exciting power breakout to go along with an already plus hit tool. However, for a first baseman with no future frame/strength to grow into and more pressure on the game power development  in order to provide significant major league value, this surge was more of a requirement than a bonus. Given the 2016 power output and merely above average raw power, a reasonable high end (read: 75th percentile or better) major league output for Dom would be 18-22 homers a year. Of the 20 first basemen to qualify for the batting title in 2015, only one–Brandon Belt–has never hit more than 22 homers in a year.

From an aesthetic standpoint, Belt reportedly weighs 30 less pounds than Smith while being five inches taller than him. Belt has plus range at first base and is arguably the best defensive first baseman in baseball, when he’s not moonlighting in left field. Smith is a plus defender at first base for now, despite not having nearly the range Belt does, but it would still be a bit foolhardy to expect his defensive value, especially as he enters his prime to match Belt’s. And while Belt has never hit more than 18 homers in a season, he has never hit less than 33 doubles in a full season In fact, given Dom’s ability to use all fields, he might not end up all that far off Belt’s double pace.

Perhaps the two ways in which Dominic Smith most significantly lags behind Brandon Belt is in patience and avoiding double plays. Belt is one of the best hitters in all of baseball at staying out of the twin killing. In 2016, Belt has grounded into six double plays and that is a career high. In 698 career major league games (2640 PAs), Belt has hit into a total of 23 double plays. This comes to 5.23 double plays for every 600 PAs. Meanwhile, Dominic Smith grounded into 13 double plays this year after hitting into 19 twin killers last year and 18 the year prior to that. Those 50 double plays he has hit into over the past three years  is the equivalent of 19.27 double plays for every 600 PAs. That difference between Belt and Smith is significant and a serious strike against Smith’s true offensive value to a team. Belt boasts a low ground ball rate (26.6 percent this season) and moves very well for a first baseman. Smith severely lags behind Belt in speed and has not shown the same ability to consistently lift the ball.

Now, patience: In 2016, Brandon Belt ranked fifth in the major leagues with a 15.9 percent walk rate, trailing only Bryce Harper, Joey Votto, Jose Bautista , and Mike Trout. To expect Dominic Smith, who has never posted a double digit walk rate in full season ball to come close to this figure would be quite a reach. That alone makes it quite unreasonable to compare Dominic Smith to a guy with a .390 OBP, aside from their similarities as first basemen who do not hit for typical first base power but may be able to do other things well.

While it goes without saying that Dominic Smith doesn’t need to be Brandon Belt—a perennial a 4-WARP player— to be considered a useful MLB asset, this shows the tightrope he’s going to have to walk in order to be a successful major league player. Unless he unexpectedly becomes a 30+ home run hitter, he’s going to need his hit tool to be plus-plus or better in order to carry him as even an average starting first baseman. If it’s merely just plus, he’d be treading dangerously close or towards the territory of first basemen like James Loney and Casey Kotchman, both of whom were both former first round picks and top prospects that were expected to be all-around threats and ended up as replacement level starters. Dominic Smith still has the upside to outperform the likes of Loney and Kotchman, but he needs to hit at an incredibly high level to be able to do so and that is no guarantee for any prospect, especially one with as many risks as Smith.

Amed Rosario, SS

When you show up to see a consensus top-20 global prospect–or is it top-10?–you expected to be wowed by at least something. Your expectations are set quite high and a merely decent toolset will leave you a bit disappointed. Well, there is no such disappointment when going to see Amed Rosario play.

The first pitch I saw Rosario swing at this season, which came in an early August game against the Reading Fighting Phils, landed mere inches short of being a home run to dead center field. (It ended up going for a double.) He absolutely crushed that ball. And the hits didn’t stop there. He had two more that game and, throughout my looks, showed an ability to fight off pitches and utilize right-center field. His wrist/bat speed is off the charts and gives him a good chance to be successful regardless of swing path. His bat is impressive for anyone, let alone for a slick-fielding shortstop, and Rosario certainly qualifies as one.   

Putting a plus grade on Rosario’s arm at SS might be conservative. He has no trouble throwing quickly or across his body. Even in those situations, he  makes strong and accurate throws to first base. This sort of arm affords him extra time to hesitate on balls or play back, but that is a luxury he does not need. His instincts and reactions at shortstop are phenomenal, which allow him to get to balls and into his throwing motion very quickly. His hands at shortstop are merely good at this point, but it would hard to grade his overall glove at anything less than a 60 given the rest of the defensive profile.

On the negative side, Rosario did strike out a fair amount in the times I saw him, which might be something to keep an eye on. All of my looks at him this year came in the month of August after he had already surpassed his previous career high for games played in a season, so it might be understandable to chalk some of this up to  fatigue. However, it is worth noting that a good number of Rosario’s strikeouts seem to have come on changeups down in the zone from both lefties and righties. In one look, he struggled to identify and make contact with the changeup of Tigers LHP prospect Tyler Alexander, an advanced college arm with an impressive change. While such struggles are not uncommon for a prospect, let alone a 20-year-old in Double-A, it is something Rosario will need to work on going forward. Overall, Rosario projects as an All-Star-caliber shortstop. 


Phil Evans, IF

After receiving a $650,000 signing bonus from the Mets as a 15th-round pick out of high school in 2011, Evans had struggled prior to this season to prove himself worth second-round money. He hit .234/.300/.313 while repeating the Florida State League in 2015 and failed to hit a single home run in 280 plate appearances. The former highly touted high school shortstop prospect had become a minor league utility infielder without much utility.

In 2016, five years after being drafted, Evans finally began to show why he was worthy of such a high signing bonus and started to regain his former prospect status. The body is still less than ideal, with a bit too much bulk packed into a shorter frame. Evans played both second base and third base in my looks at him and showed decent enough hands and lateral movement, although I didn’t get a chance to see him have to make any tough throws from across the diamond at third. The bat, however, is the tool that is helping to put him back on the map.

Though a bit overly aggressive at the plate, as would be suggested by his below-average walk rate this season, Evans has a shot to hit due to a short, compact swing that allows him to make frequent hard contact. It’s a line drive swing that allows him to spray balls to all fields. It remains to be seen if he will be exposed as a hacker in Triple-A (probably not, because Vegas) or in the majors, but ultimately, the swing changes give him a shot to stick as a fifth infielder, albeit one that will be stretched to play shortstop. The potential major league profile isn’t too different from Justin Turner’s prior to his days with the Dodgers.

Paul Paez, LHP

I went to four Binghamton Mets games this August. In them, I somehow managed to watch Paul Paez–a pure middle reliever who has never started a professional baseball game–pitch for a total of 6.7 innings. He is a 5’7”, former 38th round pick with a sizable midsection who tops out at 90 mph and pitches at nearly the same pace as Antonio Bastardo; in other words, this guy should not be exciting. Yet, in some weird ways, Paez is actually quite an interesting guy to watch and perhaps a bit more than just an organizational arm.

While Paez’s 89-90 mph fastball comes from more of a low three-quarters release point, he is almost exclusively a sidearmer at this point. From that angle, his best pitch, without a doubt, is his curveball, which sits in the 71-74 mph range. That curveball comes with beautiful, late movement that makes it a potential plus pitch and a weapon against both lefties and righties. If Paez ever sticks in a major league bullpen as a lefty arm, it will be because of that curveball. And the key towards him progressing from a struggling 24-year-old in Double-A to a major league relief pitcher will be finding the ability to pitch off of that curveball. He had some level of success pitching backwards and using his curve to set up his fastball, which can come in at 89-90 from a three-quarters release and a few ticks below that as a sidearmer. He also threw a pitch at 76-79 mph (changeup?) that need some development before it can become a weapon. I also once clocked him throwing a 65 mph eephus, which just about sums up the Paul Paez Experience.

Kevin McGowan, RHP

Kevin McGowan, a 13th round pick out of Franklin Pierce University, a small Division II school in New Hampshire, has never been a major presence on prospect radars. However, McGowan has a case as the best right-handed relief prospect in the system. McGowan, who is listed at 6’5” and 235 lbs, is an intimidating presence on the mound and has the stuff to match. His fastball sits at 92-94 and touches 95, with the potential to add a tick or two as he gets moved full-time to a one-inning reliever role. He has plus movement on the fastball that allows him to induce swings and misses and allows him to throw the pitch in and out of the strike zone in any count. On the back of this plus fastball and impressive numbers, McGowan should be added to the 40-man roster to this winter and get the call up to Queens at some point in 2017. If he is left unprotected, he would be a strong candidate to stick in someone’s bullpen for an entire season as a Rule 5 pick and possibly make a positive impact in such a role.

Nabil Crismatt, RHP

It feels a bit wrong to provide a write-up here on a pitcher who had made exactly one start above the South Atlantic League based on a cameo in Binghamton. But in this case, grading on a curve or not, Nabil Crismatt didn’t embarrass himself after making a two-level jump for this spot start. He is not an overpowering pitcher, with a fastball that sits at 90-91 and touched 92. His best offering is a plus changeup that will be his carrying pitch if he is ever going to make it to the majors. The pitch had good velocity separation at 80-83 and helped him to strike out the side in his second Double-A inning. Given his funky and deceptive delivery and his shorter, maxed out frame, Crismatt’s most likely path to the majors most will come as a reliever. An eventual move to the pen would allow him to ditch his loopy and mostly ineffective curveball for a straight two-pitch repertoire. It is possible to stick as an effective major league reliever with a low-90s fastball and a good changeup, as Tyler Clippard has shown us over the past decade. But Clippard is essentially a 90th percentile outcome for any FB-CH prospect with a low 90s fastball.

Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez- USA Today Sports