Sandy’s Sunrise: The wave of talent that the Miami front office acquired over the offseason has started to reach the highest level, and Sandy Alcantara was perhaps the biggest pitching prospect in that first wave. The 23-year-old righty has struggled mightily with his command in his brief cup of coffee (21 BB to 20 K), but one encouraging sign is his ground ball rate, which has trended up in both the minors and majors (44.8% last year in Double-A, 49.4% this year in Triple-A). That could help explain his low BABIP at both stops this year (.283 in Triple-A, .243 in MLB), but the MLB number shows why his FIP is much higher than his ERA (5.65 to 4.00). Statistically, it seems like Alcantara has a ways to go before he becomes a major league quality pitcher, but his walk numbers should regress and help bring him more success.

Anderson After All-Star Break: Brian Anderson has been talked about in most NL Rookie of the Year conversations as a guy who had a good-not-Acuña/Soto season. The reason Anderson has not been able to keep pace in the awards race, though, is due to stagnation in the season’s second half. Through the All-Star break, Anderson had a slash line of .288/.363/.429. After the break, it fell to .245/.343/.348. The drop in production caused him to go from top five pace in WARP among right fielders (about 4.5 WARP/600) to bench-level pace in WARP over the season’s last two months (about 1.0 WARP/600). Perhaps the long season played a factor, as Anderson has received about 70 more plate appearances than any previous year. Regardless, the Marlins need the first half version of Anderson to build around in the future.

Sierra’s Struggles: In the same trade that netted the Marlins Alcantara, they also received the speedy outfielder Magneuris Sierra, whose first season in Miami may be one he wants to forget; Sierra has been worth -1.1 WARP in just 148 plate appearances. That’s worse than Chris Davis’ pace, and he is the least valuable player in baseball by almost two full WARP. Sierra’s ISO of .014 — yes .014 — is the lowest among any batter with at least 100 plate appearances this year. While he will probably never be an offensive thumper, those levels of ineptitude will not be playable on a winning team. The Marlins certainly hope he turns it around, but the early returns are not looking good.

Quick Hits

The Good: J.T. Realmuto finishes as the best catcher in baseball with 6.11 WARP. He’s also the ninth best position player by WARP, regardless of position.

The Bad: Miami’s offense has scored the fewest runs with 581. The Mets have scored 669, 10th worst.

The Ugly: Miami has only hit 128 home runs, again good for worst in baseball. The three former Marlins outfielders that were traded away in the offseason have hit a combined 91 home runs.

Mets Check-In

6,689 plate appearances. 1,777 hits. 242 home runs. David Wright was and is a living legend. Numbers alone cannot describe what he has meant to this franchise, but here they are: Wright is the all-time franchise leader in hits, runs (949), total bases (2945), singles (1119), doubles (390), RBI (970), walks (761), times on base (2583), sac flies (152) and just about every measure of WARP or WAR. These last few years have been weird without you, but I am glad to see you play one last time. Thank you, David Wright. Thank you, Captain.

Photo credit: Steve Mitchell – USA TODAY Sports

Sobotka’s Strikeouts: One rookie pitcher without significant hype is reliever Chad Sobotka. He has a 12.4 K/9 through his first 12.1 major league innings, though, so he may be someone to keep an eye on. Until this season, Sobotka had only posted a K/9 above 9 at one stop (High-A) in the minors, but this year he has not posted a K/9 below 11.6 at any of his four levels. Without minor league pitch data, it is hard to know any changes he may have made, but it seems likely some adjustment is leading to the significant bump in strikeouts. His walks remain an issue (5.8 BB/9), and his BABIP of 0.091 suggests serious regression could be coming, but with a fastball averaging 96.9 mph and strikeout rates that high, Sobotka has the potential to be a weapon in the pen. That fastball velocity is in the 91st percentile among relievers this year.

Lane’s Legs: Lane Adams is actually in his second stint with the Braves this season after spending a brief period with the Cubs in between. The Braves have deployed him mostly as a pinch runner, and his legs certainly warrant those kind of decisions. Since 2016, in the majors and minors, he has a stolen base for every 12.1 plate appearances. This is kind of an obscure measure, so here is how the 2018 steals leaders’ current plate appearance per steal rates stack up: Trea Turner: 16.9, Whit Merrifield: 17.9, Mallex Smith: 14.3, Jose Ramirez: 20.3, Starlin Marte: 17.5. I could keep going, but only one batter in the top 20 in steals has a lower rate than Adams’ 2016-2018, and that is Adalberto Mondesi of the Royals with 10.1 plate appearances per steal (keep in mind, lower is better because it means fewer plate appearances in between steals). In fact, no qualified batter has a lower rate than Adams’ three-year numbers. Yes, these stats for Adams include some time in the minors, but it is still impressive when you consider the only qualified batters to have better rates last year were Dee Gordon and Billy Hamilton. Adams may be used exclusively as a pinch runner in the playoffs, but look for him to get some at bats in this series, as his bat is no slouch (.298 career TAv, but small sample size).

Touki Tuesdays: With his start tonight, Touki Toussaint will likely pass Mike Soroka for the most innings thrown as a starter by a Braves rookie this year. Toussaint has taken significant strides over the last two seasons, posting strikeout rates 26% or higher in each of his minor league stops. Only 15 qualified starters have a K% better than 26% this year. While Touki’s walk rate has spiked in his time in the majors (an ugly 16.3%), his minor league numbers were much better (8.5% in Triple-A) and have generally been trending in the right direction of the last few years. He may not be ready to slot into a major league rotation just yet, but if he can get those walk numbers back down to his recent minor league levels, he could be a scary foe in the division for the next few years.

Quick Hits

The Good: The Braves’ .671 winning percentage against the NL East is the best of any National League team against its own division. Only the Red Sox have a better record within their division. The Mets’ winning percentage against the NL East is .514.

The Bad: Nick Markakis’ monthly slugging percentages could foretell a frustrating free-agency for the 34-year-old: .472, .534, .464, .483, .388, .325.

The Ugly: Over the last 30 days, Braves pitchers have allowed 123 walks, 10 more than the next closest team. The Mets have allowed 87.

Mets Check-In

As the Mets begin their final home stand, they have clinched a losing season and almost certainly fourth place in the NL East. This will be their eighth season below .500 in the last 10 years, and their sixth fourth place finish in that time. They are currently only 15 games back of first place, and while that number has long ceased to have meaning in terms of standings, it would be the smallest gap from first place the organization has ever had in a fourth or worst finish.

Photo credit: Dale Zanine – USA Today Sports

Soto for Harper: Was this season a symbolic passing of the “face of the franchise” torch between two of the game’s most exciting young stars? Juan Soto certainly seemed like the better player at times throughout the season. If this is the end of Bryce Harper’s run in D.C., though, it would leave a taste of disappointment for many Nationals’ fans, as the team never made it passed the first round of the playoffs with one of the greatest players of this generation. Could Soto lead the Nationals to the promised land instead? In Harper’s own teenage rookie campaign, he posted a 5.2 WARP/600 plate appearances with 11 FRAA, 22 home runs and a .270/.340/.477 slash line. Soto lags behind in defense (1.7 FRAA), but his offensive numbers are more impressive, as he has posted a 5.6 WARP/600 plate appearances, 20 home runs (in almost 150 fewer plate appearances) and a .298/.413/.520 slash line. Obviously Harper stepped up his production considerably since then, but Soto has created an incredible foundation to build upon and should help mitigate the potential loss of Harper in the outfield. With another outfield uber-prospect in Victor Robles starting to get his feet wet, the Nationals may decide to let Harper walk.

Difo for Murphy: In some ways, this season offered a preview of what the Wilmer Difo for Daniel Murphy swap would look like. Murphy missed significant time to injury and was then traded to the Cubs in September, allowing Difo to glean plenty of starts at the keystone. Difo has the clear fielding advantage there (10.4 career FRAA to -21.1 career FRAA), but offensively Murphy is worlds better. In almost 130 fewer at bats this year, Murphy has accrued nearly five times as much offense value (2.7 to 12.6 VORP). Difo has not shown much offensive prowess before this year, either, as his career TAv is .242, matching his 2018 number. What this means is the second base hole may need to be filled by someone outside of the current active roster, as Difo seems like a glove first utility infielder based on his play to date.

Gio’s Replacement: Like Murphy, Gio Gonzalez has already been traded away, and it is not clear who will take his place. The lefty leaves quite a void in the Nats’ rotation, as he contributed 22.4 WARP in almost seven seasons with the club. The team has a few internal options, but the most promising hurler to jump in his spot may be Joe Ross. Ross has just returned from Tommy John surgery, so his time spent healthy the last few years has been spotty. In his last season without the UCL injury, he posted a solid 3.43 ERA, 3.52 FIP and 3.98 DRA, which was good for 1.7 WARP in 105 innings. His K/9 and BB/9 that year matched his career averages of 8.0 and 2.5, respectively, which would put him about league average in both categories this season. A league average starter at the back end of Washington’s starting staff would certainly help stabilize their pitching situation. Ross has never thrown more major league innings than the 105 in 2016, though, and with another potential free agent departure in Jeremy Hellickson, the Nats will probably look to sign pitching help this winter.

Quick Hits

The Good: Despite no longer leading rookies in VORP, Soto still leads rookie batters in WARP with 4.24.

The Bad: Another 2019 starting candidate, Jefry Rodriguez has walked 15.2% of the batters he has faced in 49 innings.

The Ugly: The Nationals’ expected record based on run differential is eight games better than their current record. They would be in playoff position if that were the case.

Mets Check-In

The Mets are 13-26 in one-run games. The only two teams worse than that are in last place in their respective divisions. One of them may lose 115 games. The other was nine games out of first place 18 days into the season. They are the Orioles and the Reds. It is pretty safe to say the season has been a disappointment if your team is in any group with the 2018 Orioles and Reds.

Photo credit: Adam Hagy – USA Today Sports

Carlos isn’t Cursed: The signing of Carlos Santana in the offseason was a signal the Phillies were trying to contend. With Cleveland, Santana had become a pretty steady contributor, posting WARP totals between 2.4 and 3.6 in four of his last five seasons with the club. When he came to Philadelphia, though, his production took a nose dive, in large part to an ungodly .206 BABIP in the season’s first half. As a player with less-than-phenomenal speed, his BABIP has always been a little on the lower side, but such a dip had Phillies fans wondering what curse had been bestowed upon him for leaving Cleveland. In the second half, though, his BABIP regressed to normal levels, as these things tend to do, and his production followed. In fact, his season WARP is sitting right in his typical range at 2.4 with two weeks left to play. The rebound is a welcome sight for Philly, which certainly has designs of contending again next year.

Relief Network: Despite a few hiccups that have cost them games down the stretch, the Phillies have a solid basis for a dominant bullpen. In Hector Neris, Seranthony Dominguez, Victor Arano and Luis Garcia, Philadelphia has four relievers with K/9 better than 9 and DRAs lower than 3.30 who are under control for at least two more seasons. Add in the guys they spent considerable money on this winter, like Pat Neshek (2.89 FIP, 4.65 K/BB, controlled through 2020) and Tommy Hunter (3.50 FIP, 3.61 K/BB, controlled through 2019), and with some tweaking, the Phillies’ pen could be a huge asset next year.

Philly Payroll: Speaking of the money the Phillies spent last offseason, they have more to spend in the future. If there is any reason to believe the Phillies are the best positioned team in the division in 2019 and beyond, it is their financial fortitude. In 2014, Philadelphia’s payroll was $183 million, third highest in the majors (according to Cot’s). In 2018, their opening day payroll was $95 million. Before arbitration, the team only has $69 million committed to 2019. With a star-studded free agent market, they seem positioned to make a splash if they so choose.

Quick Hits

The Good: Jose Bautista’s TAv with the Phillies is .326.

The Bad: Jorge Alfaro has struck out in 36.7% of his plate appearances.

The Ugly: The Phillies have gone 30-36 against the NL East.

Mets Check-In

The Mets are the only NL team with three pitchers with four or more WARP (the Indians have three as well). deGrom (6.96), Wheeler (4.86) and Syndergaard (4.17) are the three to meet that level of production. The last time New York had three such pitchers was 2015, when deGrom, Syndergaard and Matt Harvey all reached the mark. Such a dominant year on the mound feels wasted considering the results elsewhere on the field, although the development of Wheeler in particular has been encouraging to see at least.

Photo credit: Nick Turchiaro – USA Today Sports

The How Is This Guy This Bad On A Team This Good Award… goes to Eduardo Núñez. After posting well above average years in his age-29 and -30 seasons, Núñez’ bat has fallen on hard times. The last two seasons, Núñez had VORPs of 30 or greater, but this season his VORP is -1.9. His WARP is -0.4, and considering he has been given 484 plate appearances, this level of “meh” on a team poised to break the franchise win total is amazing.

The Veteran Presents Award… goes to Brandon Phillips. His addition to the roster last week probably had Red Sox fans questioning how much he would contribute, but he quickly cashed in on his opportunity to return to the big leagues. In his first game for Boston, he hit a go-ahead home run to cap a six-run comeback against Atlanta to clinch a sweep. Even if the moment is his only one worth noting for the Red Sox, it will leave quite a memory in Boston fans’ minds.

The If Only Injuries Weren’t a Thing Award… goes to Chris Sale. If it seems like Sale is always the bridesmaid, never the bride in the Cy Young voting, it’s because he is. As a starter, he has never finished worse than sixth in the voting, and this year looks like it could be another close call. His pace through the first four months of the season set him on a path to win, but he missed a month with a shoulder injury and possibly missed his chance at his first Cy Young. His 5.34 WARP is fifth in the AL, but three of the four pitchers ahead of him have thrown at least an extra 40 innings (a little more than a month’s worth). He still has a shot at the award, but if he does not win, it will leave him wondering what could have been.

Quick Hits

The Good: Boston’s offense has scored at least 40 more runs than every other team.

The Bad: Drew Pomeranz has the eighth worst K-BB% (4.9%) among pitchers with 50 or more innings.

The Ugly: Nunez has only walked in 3.1% of his plate appearances, the second worst walk rate among qualified batters.

Mets Check-In

If draft pick watching is your thing, the Mets have the tenth worst record in baseball (before games Thursday). That position is important, because the top ten picks are protected from forfeit in case the Mets spend money and sign a qualified free agent this offseason (Ha!). They are within five games of three teams ahead and behind them, which means they will almost certainly end up picking somewhere between 7-14 next June (the Braves have a compensation pick at 9 for not signing their 2018 first rounder, which pushes the Mets’ pick down unless they have one of the eight worst records).

Photo credit: Evan Habeeb – USA Today Sports

Barraclough’s bump in the road: The last time Kyle Barraclough was mentioned in a stat preview, he had been moved to the closer role and was on pace for a dominating season. In the roughly two months since then, his season has taken a downward turn. Before the All-Star break, Barraclough had a 1.28 ERA, a 0.471 opponent OPS and a 2.04 K/BB ratio. In the second half, he has an 18.36 ERA, a 1.265 OPS and a 0.89 K/BB ratio. Granted, he has only thrown 8.1 innings since the break, but that is because he has spent time on the DL with a back injury. Barraclough’s July and August have been disappointing all the way around, so he will be looking to put that behind him with a strong final month.

Anderson’s fall off: The third incarnation of a  Brian Anderson in the majors has put together an admiral rookie campaign, but like Barraclough, his second half has not been as good as his first. He has not been awful after the break, as despite his .226 AVG, he is walking at an 11.6% clip. His power numbers give some reason for concern, as he has only hit an extra base hit once every 20.3 plate appearances in the second half after hitting one every 12.5 plate appearances in the first half. His ISO in the first half was .140, but has only been barely half that at .084 in the second.

Quick Hits

The Good: JT Realmuto is still the runaway leader in catcher WARP (5.81).

The Bad: The Marlins have the fewest number of home runs with 116. The Mets have hit 147 (eighth fewest).

The Ugly: The Marlins have scored 15 fewer runs than any other team with 525. The Mets have scored the eighth fewest with 590.

Mets Check In

The Mets are on pace for 21 wild pitches. The next closest team is Washington with 35. The 17-pitch gap would be the highest between the first and second least wild pitches in the 21st century. No team has thrown fewer wild pitches over a full season in that time. The previous low? The 2002 Mets with 22.

Photo credit: Jasen Vinlove – USA Today Sports

Aaron’s Ascent: Speaking of those two aces, Jacob deGrom and Aaron Nola are second and third in pitcher WARP in the NL behind Max Scherzer, but a sizeable gap exists between the two (deGrom 6.68, Nola 5.76). Regardless, the two have been phenomenal for their respective teams, and, in most years, they would probably be clear cut Cy Young winners. Nola has not broken out in one particular area, but rather improved his stats and underlying peripherals in almost every category. His BB/9, HR/9, GB%, ERA, FIP, DRA and contact numbers all have seen marginal improvements over last year. The only somewhat concerning trend is his BABIP, which sits below the MLB average at .256, but even if that regresses, he should still be a well above average starter.

Phillies’ Failures at the Finish: As was mentioned above, the Phillies have struggled to capitalize in an NL East that may not have a 90-game winner. The Nationals have underperformed all season, but the current division-leading Braves have struggled as of late too, going just 8-12 in their last 20 games. The Phillies have wasted their opportunity to close the gap in the standings, though, as they have gone an even worse 7-13 over the same span. In their last 30, they have gone 12-18, and in the process, jeopardized their chances of playing in October. In fact, the Mets have the division’s best record over the last 30 games. More on that later.

More Similarities: Despite their records, these two teams are more similar than they might seem. Philadelphia is 11th in VORP. The Mets are 12th. Philadelphia is fifth in DRA. The Mets are sixth. The’re both are also consistently rated as two of the worst at defense, and FRAA measures are no different. The Phillies have -8.4 FRAA, and the Mets have -20.7 FRAA, for 19th and 28th worst, but other defensive metrics have them both in the bottom five in the league. The rough similarities between the two squads and the Phillies’ record call to mind the potential the Mets had before the season. If there is a silver lining in this depressing comparison, perhaps it means the Mets’ chances next year are not as bad as we may think.

Quick Hits

The Good: Three Philadelphia batters are in the top 15 in the majors in walk rate (Carlos Santana: 16.1%, Cesar Hernandez: 14.1% and Rhys Hoskins: 13.5%).

The Bad: Phillies batters have the third most strikeouts (1301). The Mets have 1194.

The Ugly: Phillies batters have the fewest hits in the majors (1107). The Mets have the fourth fewest with 1115.

Mets Check-In

Over their last 30 games, the Mets are an NL East best 18-12. In fact, since June 30, The Mets have gone 31-29. Since then, the Phillies and Braves have each gone 30-29, the Nationals have gone 27-33 and the Marlins have gone 23-34. Without the Mets’ terrible month of June, they would be four games behind the Braves for the NL East lead (three behind the Phillies and two behind the Nationals).

Photo credit: Eric Hartline – USA Today Sports

Kemp’s Implosion: In the last Dodgers’ stats preview, Matt Kemp was one of the team leaders in WARP and one of the surprise players that was helping keep the team afloat in the NL West. Despite Bob Nightengale’s insistence that Kemp is the Dodger’s MVP (Grandal, Turner, Muncy, Bellinger, Taylor, Machado, Kershaw, Maeda, Stripling, Wood and Buehler all say “hello”), he has fallen hard since his first half resurgence. Two and a half months since the first series with the Mets, and Kemp has a lower WARP now than he did then. If the season ended today, he would still post a respectable .283/.336/.468 slash line with 18 home runs, but his recent production has been a heavy drag on his overall stats. He has hit just .212/.295/.345 in the season’s second half and, for a DH posing as an outfielder (average of -7.3 FRAA the last three seasons), those offensive numbers are almost unplayable in a starting role. The Dodgers have added reinforcements to their lineup through trade and health improvements, though, so expect Kemp to see less playing time in the season’s final month.

Pat’s Pair: This is not really stats related, except the part about counting to two. It is not very often that what there is two of is MLB quality throwing arms on the same body, though, even if it’s on the low end of the spectrum. That is what Pat Venditte has, and in case you do not remember his previous MLB stints with the Athletics, Mariners or Toronto, here is a reminder that he is back and could be pitching to Mets hitters this week.

Ryan’s Regression: Ryan Madson was a recent acquisition from the Nationals, but he has not been very effective on the mound this season. He has regressed in nearly every way: K/9, BB/9, GB%, BABIP, HR/9, ERA, FIP and DRA. Batters are not chasing as many of his pitches out of the zone (3.6% decrease), and they are swinging at more pitches in the zone (4.2% increase). Perhaps Madson has become less deceptive, because it’s probably not his raw stuff causing his decline. His velocity is actually one of the only areas he has improved this season, as his 96.5 mph average fastball is the fastest it has been in his career (that is true for his sinker, cutter and curve as well). Since the Dodgers took a flier on him in the middle of a heated playoff push, they probably have a plan to improve his results. Otherwise, they cannot afford to use the version of Madson that produced a 6.19 DRA and -0.7 WARP for the Nationals in the season’s first five months. This series could be the first attempts to implement those changes, so look to see if there is any noticeable difference in Madson’s presentation of the ball and the Mets’ plate discipline against him.

Quick Hits

The Good: The Dodgers lead the NL in home runs (190) and only trail the Yankees (222) for the MLB lead. The Mets have 139 home runs.

The Bad: Clayton Kersahw’s K% (24.4%) is the lowest it has been since his rookie season.

The Ugly: Austin Barnes’ drop in TAv from 2017 to 2018 is over 100 points (.325 to .224).

Mets Check-In

As Tyler Oringer mentioned in his piece on September call-ups last week, Eric Hanhold was a fringy reliever with a chance to be brought up when rosters expanded. The Mets announced they do, in fact, plan to bring up Hanhold, meaning the lone piece in the return in last year’s Neil Walker trade will get his first shot in the major leagues. At four different minor league levels this year, Hanhold has a 10.4 K/9, 2.92 BB/9 and FIPs and DRAs floating around three. His addition is not as flashy as someone like Peter Alonso would have been, but keep an eye on him because he has the potential to stick in the Mets’ pen.

Photo credit: Gary A. Vasquez – USA Today Sports

Both Brandons

Crawford: Brandon Crawford has always been regarded as an elite defender, even though FRAA has rated him more in the “good-not-great” defender category. The three-time Gold Glove winner is in the midst of his best defensive season by FRAA since 2012. His path to a fourth Gold Glove is not clear though. Diamondbacks’ shortstop Nick Ahmed’s 15 FRAA bests Crawford’s 11.9 at the moment, so he even in his second-best defensive year, Crawford may not be the favorite at shortstop. Looking at the “offense wins gold gloves” requirement, Ahmed is pretty comparable to Crawford as well. Ahmed has a .736 OPS and .261 TAv, while Crawford has a .732 OPS and .265 TAv. Crawford will likely still win the award due to his reputation, and this would not be the first time he received the award over a player with better FRAA numbers (Andrelton Simmons, 2015), but Ahmed may be the more deserving candidate.

Belt: With 2.4 WARP, Brandon Belt is going to be flirting with his fourth straight three-plus WARP season, and his fifth in six seasons. Like Crawford, his defense rates at a strong level per usual (7.8 FRAA). His offense is still above average (.286 TAv), but it is a little off his normal level (.303). Part of that could be a decline in plate discipline, as Belt is swinging at more pitches (45% to 49%), particularly on pitches out of the zone. His out-of-zone swing rate has increased from 24.4% last year to 29% this year. He is making less contact on pitches out of the zone too (62% to 54%, which is not necessarily the worst outcome since those pitches are most likely to result in weak contact if he hits them). Swinging at more pitches usually does not have good consequences on walk rate, and Belt is no different, as his 14.6% BB% in 2017 has fallen to 10.8% this year.

Not a Brandon, Still a Good Season: Tony Watson has rebounded nicely for San Francisco, as he has a 2.70 ERA, 2.79 FIP, and 3.31 DRA. He has improved slightly in several areas, as his K/9, BB/9 and BABIP have all trended in a positive direction. One change he seems to have made in his pitch usage is he is throwing his changeup more often. He is throwing the pitch almost 30% of the time, more than he has ever thrown it before. The switch makes sense, as he gets the best whiff rate on his changeup (19%). Todd Frazier, Wilmer Flores and former Giant Austin Jackson have all struggled against lefty changeups this season, hitting a combined .113 on the pitch.

Quick Hits

The Good: Giants pitchers have hit the least amount of batters this year with 36. The Mets have hit 56.

The Bad: Giants reliever Reyes Moronta has walked batters at a 13.9% rate, eighth worst in the majors among relievers.

The Ugly: Of course, saves are a flawed stat, but regardless, blown saves are bad. The Giants lead baseball in blown saves with 27. The Mets have 15 (sixth best).

Mets Check-In

After splitting their four-game series with the Giants last week, the Mets have a chance to win the season series with San Francisco if they win two of three this weekend. New York has only lost one season series to San Francisco in the last seven years (2014). Going back to 2003, they have only lost three season series to the Giants.

Photo credit: Kiel Maddox – USA Today Sports

Cole Hamels: Of course the pitcher mentioned above is Cole Hamels, who in his five starts with the Cubs has been absolutely lights out. In his time with Texas this year, Hamels carried a 4.72 ERA, 5.23 FIP and 5.57 DRA. With Chicago, those numbers have been 0.79, 2.31 and 4.00, respectively. While DRA still does not see him as the top of the rotation starter he once was, all of those numbers show marked improvement. Hamels’ ground ball percentage has also shot up to 58% with Chicago after sitting at 45% with Texas. So what has changed? He is throwing a little harder, but that is something he has done almost every year as the season has gone along. Since the trade, his four seam usage has greatly increased (22.3% to 40.2%) and his sinker (17.6% to 12.4%) and cutter (20.5% to 15.5%) usages have decreased. He has also thrown the ball up in the zone with more frequency, as 25% of his pitches have been in the upper third of the zone or higher, compared to 20% before the trade. All of this seems to be counterproductive to getting more ground balls though: throwing up in the zone and throwing fewer sinkers. So why is his ground ball rate so high? It is likely due to small sample size, as his ground ball rates on his change and cutter are both better than 80% with the Cubs, something he has never come close to sustaining on either pitch. The ground ball rate is probably going to regress, so it’s left to be seen if his overall results follow suit.

Javy Baez: Javier Baez has not just been the Cubs’ best player in 2018, he has been their best player over the last month by far. Over the last 30 days, Baez has hit nine home runs and 19 total extra-base hits for a .317/.351/.692 triple slash line. While many of the Cubs’ regular stars have not quite reached their usual production levels due to injuries or other factors, Baez has risen to the top of a very talented group of position players. He has always been a free swinger (4.7% walk rate), but he has amazingly swung at an even greater number of pitches (60.2%) this season. Most of that increase has been on pitches in the zone, which are the ones he should be swinging at. Among batters who have seen at least 1,000 pitches in 2018, Baez ranks fourth in swing rate on pitches in the zone. Look to see if Mets pitchers try to expand the zone on Baez to try to get him to chase (he also ranks fourth in baseball in out of zone swing rate at 46.4%).

Wilson Contreras: Wilson Contreras has gained a reputation as one of the game’s best young catchers over the last few years, and that is supported by his 2.7 and 3.5 WARP seasons the last two years. He is projected to finish with 2.2 WARP this year, and while that is still above average, his defense may be a concern going forward. Contreras ranks second to last in FRAA among catchers (-11.0 FRAA) and dead last in framing runs (-14.4). The difference between the best and worst framing catcher is significantly smaller than last year, but this is still not a good sign for a catcher who had 5 and -2.8 framing runs in his first two seasons. His offense has helped make up for that shortcoming, though, as even though his .277 TAv is the first time he has not been above .300 in a season, it is still good production from the catching position.

Quick Hits

The Good: Cubs batters have the highest on base percentage in baseball (.341). The Mets OBP is .312 (eighth worst).

The Bad: Cubs pitchers have allowed the second most walks this year (511). Mets pitchers have given up 388 (ninth best).

The Ugly: The Cubs have scored the sixth-least runs in August. The only teams to score fewer runs have losing records.

Mets Check-In

The Mets’ offense has scored the second most runs in August, trailing only Boston. They have twice scored eight runs in a game started by deGrom in that span, but they have only scored five in his other three August starts. After facing off against Jake Arrieta and Madison Bumgarner his last two outings, the Mets may struggle to provide run support again for deGrom, as he will match up against Hamels.

Photo credit: Charles LeClaire- USA Today Sports