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	<title>Mets &#187; 2016 NL Wild Card</title>
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		<title>A Met Fan Guide to Rooting: 2016 Playoffs</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/11/a-met-fan-guide-to-rooting-2016-playoffs/</link>
		<comments>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/11/a-met-fan-guide-to-rooting-2016-playoffs/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 11 Oct 2016 10:00:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Andrew Mearns]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2016 NL Wild Card]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2016 Playoffs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Angel Pagan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Young]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Daniel Murphy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ezequiel Carrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Turner]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oliver Perez]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2697</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The dream is dead. The Mets could not beat Madison Bumgarner–or even score one run–so the 2016 season is over. As Jarrett Seidler wrote last week, there are plenty of positives to look back on, and fans should not be too discouraged. Nevertheless, the Mets’ absence in the playoffs now creates a void for those [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The dream is dead. The Mets could not beat Madison Bumgarner–or even score one run–so the 2016 season is over. As Jarrett Seidler <a href="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/07/dont-look-back-in-anger/">wrote last week</a>, there are plenty of positives to look back on, and fans should not be too discouraged.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, the Mets’ absence in the playoffs now creates a void for those who wanted to see more Mets baseball in October. There will still be baseball, but now fans will have to find other teams to support in the meantime. With the field now narrowed down to six (sorry, Carlos Beltran), what should be the preferred rooting order?</p>
<p><strong>6. Los Angeles Dodgers</strong></p>
<p>Former Mets: Justin Turner</p>
<p>No, absolutely not. They have Chase Utley, not to mention a couple other former Phillies who gave fans headaches. It would be hard for a team that isn’t in the NL East to take the bottom spot on this list, but that’s the power of Utley. Not even Turner’s glorious red locks can come close to making up for that. There’s also the fact that their World Series title drought is roughly as long as the Mets’ and they simply can’t be allowed to snap it before the Mets snap theirs.</p>
<p><strong>5. Washington Nationals</strong></p>
<p>Former Mets: Daniel Murphy, Oliver Perez</p>
<p>It was disappointing enough that the Mets couldn’t surge ahead of the Nats late this year as they did in late 2015, but that’s the wisdom of gradually dropping Matt Williams, Drew Storen, and Jonathan Papelbon from the organization. There is no sense in cheering for the primary division rival. It’s not quite to the crazy level of a Cardinals fan pulling for the Cubs or a Yankees fan hoping the Red Sox can survive, but the point still stands. Sorry, Murph.</p>
<p><strong>4. San Francisco Giants</strong></p>
<p>Former Mets: Angel Pagan</p>
<p>The team that knocked the Mets out only ranking third-worst here is a testament to the grim reality of the field. However, #EvenYearBullshit can be only be tolerated so much, particularly since Bumgarner almost single-handedly eliminated the Mets, save for a three-run blast from a classic “who?” Giants hero, Conor Gillaspie. They’ve won enough. It’s time for someone else.</p>
<p>Knowing the Giants, there is a very low chance that this season doesn’t end with Eduardo Nunez proudly holding the World Series MVP.</p>
<p><strong>3. Chicago Cubs</strong></p>
<p>Former Mets: None</p>
<p>The Cubs are the last NL team to be mentioned, but only because the idea of a championship for them is not as bad as it would be for the other three clubs. Like the since-eliminated Red Sox, they do have that awesome young core, and it’s not like they caused any problems for the Mets last year en route to their NL pennant. So as fun as it would be to see that championship drought continue, they’re palatable enough to make them the best NL option, despite Joe Maddon’s cutesy quirks.</p>
<p><strong>2. Toronto Blue Jays</strong></p>
<p>Former Mets: Ezequiel Carrera (minors), Jose Bautista (<a href="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/19/1601/">lol</a>)</p>
<p>When this offense is rolling (as they did in the ALDS), it’s a lot of fun to watch, as the Blue Jays have tons of dinger threats. It’s kind of unbelievable that they had to settle for a Wild Card. It is incredibly difficult to find relief in this lineup, as Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, and Jose Bautista provide formidable threats right in the heart of it, and both Russell Martin and Troy Tulowitzki had 20 homers this year, as well. The fan base has had its <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2016/10/05/orioles-players-react-beer-toss-pathetic-adam-jones-hyun-soo-kim/91595440/">ugly</a> <a href="http://deadspin.com/bizarre-play-derails-alds-game-5-blue-jays-fans-throw-1736595004">moments</a>, and Donaldson has been a bit <a href="https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2016/09/28/baseball-is-kinder-and-gentler-until-you-pitch-inside-griffin.html">hyper-sensitive</a> about remotely close pitches. They still aren’t a bad option, especially for those unenthused by the NL crop.</p>
<p><strong>1. Cleveland Indians</strong></p>
<p>Former Mets: None</p>
<p>Numbers one and two can be easily flip-flopped. The Indians’ whole brand is pretty gross, from the name to Chief Wahoo to <a href="http://deadspin.com/cleveland-indians-fan-in-redface-meets-a-native-america-1558499738">fan behavior</a>. If the team was named anything else, this would be a no-doubter. Pretend they’re called the Fightin’ Franconas.</p>
<p>The Fightin’ Franconas just have a tremendously entertaining team, with terrific defense from the likes of Francisco Lindor and an underrated offense led by Carlos Santana, Mike Napoli, and up-and-comers Tyler Naquin and Jose Ramirez. The pitching would be even more tremendous if they were at full strength, but watching Corey Kluber robotically mow through lineups is all the fun of Bumgarner without it actually being Bumgarner.</p>
<p>Also, Terry Francona has expertly managed the bullpen and is willing to use super-reliever Andrew Miller in just about any spot, even as early as the fifth inning. It’s refreshing to see both a manager embrace that fireman role, and for the pitcher himself to fully support it. They have the longest title drought in the AL at 68 years. Maybe it would nicer if they broke it next year, but the Fightin’ Franconas are a fine pick.</p>
<p><em>Photo Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Don&#8217;t Look Back In Anger</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/07/dont-look-back-in-anger/</link>
		<comments>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/07/dont-look-back-in-anger/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 07 Oct 2016 13:04:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jarrett Seidler]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2016 NL Wild Card]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2016 Playoffs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bryan put a music video in this article]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[lots of video]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oasis]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2688</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Sometimes, you just run into the wrong pitcher on the wrong day. Madison Bumgarner is probably the greatest pitcher in modern postseason history. He was very good in 2010, had his only two bad playoff appearances ever in 2012 backed up by a sensational World Series start, and turned into this millennium&#8217;s Old Hoss Radbourn [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sometimes, you just run into the wrong pitcher on the wrong day.</p>
<p>Madison Bumgarner is probably the greatest pitcher in modern postseason history. He was very good in 2010, had his only two bad playoff appearances ever in 2012 backed up by a sensational World Series start, and turned into this millennium&#8217;s Old Hoss Radbourn in 2014, immune to rest cycles and pitch counts, the normal laws of pitching and all of that silly stuff. He blanked the Mets for nine innings over 119 pitches, and probably could’ve gone further had the Giants not scored in the top of the ninth. Noah Syndergaard was even better over seven, but one of the majors’ best late-inning bullpens couldn’t continue to hold serve, and the Mets went down for the offseason.</p>
<p>It happens. It sucks. I probably won’t see another live baseball game this year, and that’s always a sad realization. Our friends in the booth scatter for four or five months. You’ll only hear Gary Cohen calling college basketball, Josh Lewin calling San Diego Chargers football, and Ron Darling calling AL playoff baseball &#8230; for a few weeks anyway. You won’t even hear the soothing voice of Howie Rose on Islanders hockey anymore, because he retired from that gig. Keith Hernandez will go back into winter hibernation in Sag Harbor and Florida.</p>
<p>We had a lot of fun as Mets fans in 2016, and I think it’s important to keep sight of that through the sadness of the end and the anger of how it ended. The 2016 Mets, for much of the season, were just supposed to go away, buried in the divisional race and close in the wild card race, with stars dropping hurt left and right. Yet they never fell totally out, and blitzed the National League over the last six weeks. How remarkable is it that <em>this team</em> with<em> this roster</em> had a home playoff game?</p>
<p>There were a lot of good times. You might not even remember all of them. So let’s take a brief stroll down memory lane and revisit the 2016 Mets.</p>
<p><em><strong>There was Asdrubal Cabrera’s bat flip on a season-defining homer that somehow topped Yoenis Cespedes’ 2015 NLDS bat flip.</strong></em></p>
<iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=1182807483&amp;topic_id=17807232&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p><em><strong>Bartolo Colon hit a home run!</strong></em></p>
<iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=670818683&amp;topic_id=6479266&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p><em><strong>Remember when Cespedes hit a grand slam in April to finish off a 12-run inning?</strong></em></p>
<iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=640597183&amp;topic_id=11493214&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p><em><strong>We saw what might be the last great David Wright moment, the walk-off on Milwaukee.</strong></em></p>
<iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=722622783&amp;topic_id=6479266&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p><em><strong>We had the pleasure of seeing unique talents like Yoenis Cespedes and Noah Syndergaard perform regularly. Remember Cespedes and Noah Syndergaard trotting in on horseback during spring training? That was pretty great.</strong></em></p>
<iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=545012983&amp;topic_id=69972428&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p><em><strong>Fanbase darling Wilmer Flores turned his season and maybe his career around with a six-hit game, then launched a Citi Field craze by changing his at-bat music to the theme from Friends.</strong></em></p>
<iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=890558583&amp;topic_id=11493214&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p><em><strong>We all sang along to “Danza Kuduro” for Jeurys Familia.</strong></em></p>
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/F1tUDs-mvFM" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p><em><strong>The Mike Piazza weekend finally fully honored one of the team’s icons.</strong></em></p>
<iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=989119083&amp;topic_id=6479266&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p><em><strong>The emergences of Robert Gsellman and T.J. Rivera and Seth Lugo catapulted a team left for dead several times into the playoffs.</strong></em></p>
<iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=1035610383&amp;topic_id=33965510&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p><em><strong>And yes, we can even fondly remember Syndergaard throwing the game of his life in a double-elimination game–</strong></em></p>
<iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=1202944183&amp;topic_id=6479266&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p><em><strong>—and Curtis Granderson’s catch that, in another timeline, propels the Mets on another miraculous playoff run.</strong></em></p>
<iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=1202969783&amp;topic_id=11493214&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p>Soon we’ll be talking hot stove and the Rule 5 Draft and Yoenis Cespedes’ opt-out and the confounding Conforto catastrophe and all that good stuff. The memories of 2016 will fade into the background. But today, this week, let’s look back at the 2016 Mets and smile. Even through overwhelming injuries, it was an awful good year to be a Mets fan. And 2017 could be even better. Don’t let another one of Madison Bumgarner’s masterpieces ruin that for you.</p>
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cmpRLQZkTb8" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p><em>Photo Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Syndergaard vs. Bumgarner (and Other Great Mets Postseason Showdowns)</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/05/syndergaard-vs-bumgarner-and-other-great-mets-postseason-showdowns/</link>
		<comments>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/05/syndergaard-vs-bumgarner-and-other-great-mets-postseason-showdowns/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Oct 2016 13:02:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Andrew Mearns]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2016 NL Wild Card]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2016 Playoffs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Madison Bumgarner]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Noah Syndergaard]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2664</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The baseball gods smiled upon Queens for the National League Wild Card matchup. It will be the Mets against the Giants at Citi Field with two of baseball’s most talented pitchers going head-to-head with their seasons on the line. It’s hard to conceive a better scenario for baseball than Noah Syndergaard against Madison Bumgarner. With baseball [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The baseball gods smiled upon Queens for the National League Wild Card matchup. It will be the Mets against the Giants at Citi Field with two of baseball’s most talented pitchers going head-to-head with their seasons on the line. It’s hard to conceive a better scenario for baseball than Noah Syndergaard against Madison Bumgarner. With baseball being baseball, they will probably both be knocked out by the sixth inning en route to a 10-8 final.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, the lead-up to the showdown should be exciting. It might be hard to remember the last time there was a do-or-die game with the Mets that featured two pitchers this good. However, there have been a few precedents. In their all-time playoff history, the Mets have played just six games that met this simple parameter: if the Mets lost, they went home; if they won, they advanced. (This does not count the 1999 Wild Card <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CIN/CIN199910040.shtml">playoff game</a> against the Reds, which counted toward regular season statistics.)</p>
<p>Syndergaard vs. Bumgarner immediately vaults to the top of the discussion of the Mets’ best win-or-go-home showdowns, but which others would be in the mix? Not all of them are Ollie Perez against Jeff Suppan, after all.</p>
<p><strong>1973 NLCS: Tom Seaver vs. Jack Billingham</strong></p>
<p>Everyone remembers Seaver, but Billingham was a terrific pitcher in his own right for the “Big Red Machine.” While the offense was the star of the show, Billingham was an All-Star in ’73, leading the league in starts (40), shutouts (seven), and innings pitched (293.3). Seaver took home the Cy Young Award that year but Billingham received a couple first place votes as well, good enough for him to finish fourth in balloting.</p>
<p>Seaver and Billingham’s combined WARP of 12.6 (9.6 for Seaver, 3.0 for Billingham) is the highest of any do-or-die Mets playoff game, including Syndergaard vs. Bumgarner (11.2). Seaver does the heavy lifting, but Billingham was still the Reds’ ace. It was the coda of a thrilling NLCS where the heavy underdog 82-win Mets some took down Cincinnati’s vaunted 99-win powerhouse in a best-of-five. The Reds had forced a <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN197310100.shtml">decisive Game 5</a> with a 12th-inning victory in Game 4, leading to the Seaver vs. Billingham finale.</p>
<p>The superior talent prevailed. With the score deadlocked at 2-2, the Mets knocked Billingham from the game in the fifth with a two-run double by Cleon Jones. Seaver went 8.3 innings of two-run ball before some walks led Yogi Berra to call on Tug McGraw to seal the 7-2 victory. He did just that and the crowd went crazy, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=We7VnjA2QQI">storming the field</a>.</p>
<p><strong>1988 NLCS: Ron Darling vs. Orel Hershiser</strong></p>
<p>The more fan-friendly choice would be to tab Ron Darling’s 1986 World Series Game 7 start against Bruce Hurst. Unfortunately, while Hurst was no slouch with a 2.99 ERA and that ended in an iconic win, it would have been a much better showdown if it was Roger Clemens pitching for Boston. Alas, it was not. So the more thrilling Darling matchup has to be a loss, when the Mets were tasked with somehow stopping the sensational Orel Hershiser in Game 7 of the 1988 NLCS. Even though WARP is not as fond of Hershiser and the record-setting scoreless streak he posted during the ’88 regular season, the 10.2 combined WARP between Darling and Hershiser is still quite good.</p>
<p>The Mets had extremely high expectations for ’88 after the fun of ’86, and with 100 wins, they were six games better than the NL West champion Dodgers. It seemed like they had a good grip on the series in Game 4. They were three outs away from taking a 3-1 series lead with Dwight Gooden on the mound. Then Mike Scioscia of all people tied it up with a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hUYu_IqqNpU">two-run homer</a> in the ninth. The Mets lost both that game and the next one, needing a five-hitter from David Cone simply to force <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/LAN/LAN198810120.shtml">Game 7</a>.</p>
<p>One pitcher was dominant. The other was not at all. Regrettably for the Mets, the latter was Darling, who was pounded and removed without recording a single out in the second. When the dust settled, the Dodgers were up, 6-0, and though the Mets outlasted Hershiser in Game 3, he recaptured that shutout form from the end of the regular season. He went the distance on a five-hit shutout that ended both the Mets’ season and their hopes of more than a single championship from that overpowering mid-‘80s squad.</p>
<p><strong>2015 NLDS: Jacob deGrom vs. Zack Greinke</strong></p>
<p>Perhaps this marquee matchup was forgotten too quickly. This was another Mets/Dodgers make-or-break showdown, though this one ended in the Mets’ favor. Greinke was phenomenal in 2015 for L.A., posting a 1.66 ERA and finishing just behind Jake Arrieta for the NL Cy Young. Meanwhile, deGrom received down-ballot support for his superb season, proving that his Rookie of the Year campaign from 2014 was no fluke.</p>
<p>The Dodgers had been the favorites over the Mets, whose mere presence in the playoffs was a surprise. The Dodgers&#8217; Game 2 win keyed by an <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SiY2GtBrHug">infamous dirty slide</a> was all that kept the series alive as it trudged to a decisive fifth game. Mets fans weren’t happy that more baseball was needed, especially with Greinke on the mound against them, but deGrom was up to the challenge.</p>
<p>Both pitchers allowed the other team to score in the first, and then settled into a duel. Greinke nursed a 2-1 lead until Travis d’Arnaud lifted a sacrifice fly in the fourth to score Daniel Murphy and tie it up. Then the playoff hero Murphy victimized Greinke with a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gBksZWxcbT8">solo blast</a> in the sixth to put the Mets on top. Those were the only three runs allowed by Greinke in 6.7 innings, but deGrom did not surrender any runs after the first, leaving with six frames of two-run ball.</p>
<p>In a rare relief effort, Syndergaard dominated the seventh with two strikeouts. Then Jeurys Familia finished the Dodgers off with a two-inning save, fanning Howie Kendrick to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y92jL2563jw">end it</a>.</p>
<p>May Familia end Wednesday night in similarly dramatic fashion.</p>
<p><em>Photo Credit: Chris Pedota/The Record via USA TODAY NETWORK</em></p>
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		<title>It&#8217;s Time For Your Rally Underpants</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/05/its-time-for-your-rally-underpants/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Oct 2016 12:55:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sara Novic]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2016 NL Wild Card]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2016 Playoffs]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2661</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I’ll be honest: I didn’t think the Mets would make it to the postseason this year. The breadth of injuries, that terrible hitting slump (even more terrible with RISP) mid-season; I thought it was over. So when the Mets definitively clinched their spot in the Wild Card game over the weekend, it still felt a [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I’ll be honest: I didn’t think the Mets would make it to the postseason this year. The breadth of injuries, that terrible hitting slump (even more terrible with RISP) mid-season; I thought it was over. So when the Mets definitively clinched their spot in the Wild Card game over the weekend, it still felt a bit like a pleasant surprise. Then the tension set in. The single-night elimination is arguably the highest pressure event in baseball–a World Series Game 7 being the height of drama–and now all we can do is wait and see whether the Mets will be hit or miss in this fire sale of a game. For a team that’s had a streaky season and more than its share of wear and tear, the results seem more of a toss-up than ever. But I’ve got a few reasons for us to be optimistic.</p>
<p>First, there’s my grandmother—patient zero of rabid fandom in the house, <a href="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/08/my-grandma-likes-ty-kelly-and-you-should-too/">champion of Ty Kelly</a> and “<a href="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/03/no-no-hitters-or-how-the-mets-are-statistical-unicorns/">her little Nimmo</a>”—has not doubted her Mets for a moment, and there’s no indication her faith has wavered today. For tonight’s game, she says, she’s ready. “I got my hat on, my shirt, on my clean underwear on—everything. I’m so excited.”  Look out, San Francisco. The underpants are coming for you.</p>
<p>Then there’s this theory I’ve got: the Mets tend to perform better against strong teams than they do in the games that should be easy wins. “Theory” is really a strong word, because the idea was based less on fact than that feeling of dread I get whenever the Mets come up against, say, the Braves. At first I thought it was just leftover panic from a 90s childhood, in which Atlanta dominated the NL East with 11 consecutive division titles from 1995-2000. But when I went to check, the stats justified my fears—the Braves ended the season in last place in the NL East going 68-93, but the Mets were still 4-8 in their matchups. The Mets also fared badly against the stragglers of the NL West, going 3-4 against the last-place Padres, and 1-5 against the Diamondbacks. (The Reds, last place in NL Central, are the exception to this trend—the Mets swept them in both their pre- and post-Jay Bruce series.)</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the Mets have performed extremely well against the NL frontrunner; they’re 5-2 versus the Cubs for the season, having racked up their highest score of 2016 in the 14-3 series finale win on July 3. And, of course, there&#8217;s last year.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en">Cubs in four. There&#8217;ll be some close games and the Mets could easily push it further, but I think the Cubs are a Whole Lot better a team.</p>
<p>— Matthew Trueblood (@MATrueblood) <a href="https://twitter.com/MATrueblood/status/655060299813289984">October 16, 2015</a></p></blockquote>
<p>The Mets’ played their second highest-scoring game against the Giants, with Matz bringing home the 13-1 win on April 29; the team also broke a club record for most runs scored in a single inning–12 in the third–that night. While Bumgarner and the Giants’ even-year luck are fair causes for concern, the Mets were 4-3 against the Giants for the season.</p>
<p>Looking ahead, the Mets’ performance against the Nationals and Dodgers is slightly more mixed: they’re 6-10 against Washington and 3-4 against LA, but there are some bright spots in those numbers. Three of the Mets’ losses to the Nationals belonged to what turned out to be a very broken Harvey. Then, there is the sore buttocks of slugger Daniel Murphy. While the Mets have a closer record with the Dodgers, the Nationals have struggled whenever they face LA: Washington is 1-5 versus the Dodgers in 2016. All this to say, the Mets generally do well against the teams they will meet tomorrow and (crossing all crossable parts) on into the postseason. Perhaps they are more vigilant or adrenaline-pumped when they’re up against top-tier teams. Maybe they, too, are still filled with crippling ghost dread whenever they see the word “Braves.” Whatever the reason, it’s certainly been a theme this season, one that I hope continues.</p>
<p>Finally, the Mets have performed well as Wild Cards past. The Kings of Queens have twice been Wild Card picks under the previous system, and have advanced into the playoffs both times. In 1999, in a race against the Cubs and the Giants, the Mets had a rough September, leaving them tied with Cincinnati for the Wild Card spot. At the tiebreaking game, away from home, they shut out the Reds (courtesy Al Leiter and an impressive performance at the plate by Ricky Henderson) five-to-none, and advanced to the NLDS and eventually on to the NLCS, where the blasted Braves were waiting for them.</p>
<p>In 2000, the Mets were again the Wild Card, taking on the Giants in the NLDS. They won the series 3-1, and pressed on to meet the Yankees in the World Series …</p>
<p>… where we all know what happened next. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. For now, I too will put on my Mets paraphernalia and yell at my laptop screen tonight, and we’ll go from there. Meanwhile, I’ll take that 2000 victory over the Giants as a good omen. And speaking of that Subway Series, this year the <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-03/mets-beat-yankees-in-local-tv-ratings-for-first-time-ever">Mets surpassed the Yankees in local TV ratings</a> for the first time ever, boasting an average of 20% more viewers. That’s a big “W” in my book.</p>
<p><em>Photo Credit: Derik Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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