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	<title>Mets &#187; Addison Reed</title>
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		<title>What You Need To Know: July 31</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/31/what-you-need-to-know-july-31/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Jul 2017 10:00:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Anna Salvatore]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[A.J. Ramos]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Addison Reed]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asdrubal Cabrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Flexen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jacob deGrom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lucas Duda]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Conforto]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Seth Lugo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steven Matz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Travis d'Arnaud]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yoenis Cespedes]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5134</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Monday Takeaway Last Monday, Jacob deGrom continued a string of excellent pitching performances. The number of the game was “8,” as he pitched eight strong innings against the Padres, with eight strikeouts, for his eighth straight win. Try saying that three times fast. deGrom was also solid against the Mariners on Saturday, although he was [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3>Monday Takeaway</h3>
<p>Last Monday, Jacob deGrom continued a string of excellent pitching performances. The number of the game was “8,” as he pitched eight strong innings against the Padres, with eight strikeouts, for his eighth straight win. Try saying that three times fast. deGrom was also solid <a title="Game recap July 29: True talent levels" href="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/30/game-recap-july-29-true-talent-levels/">against the Mariners on Saturday</a>, although he was visibly shaken after hitting Mitch Haniger in the face with a 95 mph heater. “It’s not easy to forget about that,” he told reporters. He pitched four more innings in the 10-strikeout effort, but the Mets’ RISP woes led to a 3-2 loss.</p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">As for Michael Conforto, the Seattle native put on an absolute </span><i><span style="font-weight: 400">show </span></i><span style="font-weight: 400">at Safeco Park. He entered the series swinging a hot bat, with seven home runs in 15 games since the All Star break. He left Seattle having dominated on both sides of the ball. On Friday, Conforto <a title="Game recap July 28: Homecoming King" href="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/29/game-recap-july-28-homecoming-king/">blasted two home runs</a> in a 7-5 Mets victory. The next day, he played center field with what seemed like personal vengeance against Kyle Seager, robbing the All-Star third baseman twice with outstanding defensive plays.</span></p>
<p><a href="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2017/07/597e8edc6492f728906012.gif"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-5136" src="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2017/07/597e8edc6492f728906012.gif" alt="597e8edc6492f728906012" width="332" height="187" /></a></p>
<p>The Mets are almost assured of missing the playoffs this year. They needed to win every single game this week to have a fighting chance, and they might have done so if they were able to clone deGrom. This is not yet possible, so the likes of Chris Flexen and Steven Matz took the mound instead. The righty-lefty duo combined to pitch six innings, with nine earned runs, six strikeouts and four walks allowed, which sealed the deal for two Mets losses.</p>
<h3>Quick Hits</h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Meet flamethrowing RHP Yoenis Ce</span><span style="font-weight: 400">spedes, who may just take over the closer role if Addison Reed gets traded. H</span><span style="font-weight: 400">e would be the third pitcher in MLB history to be 5’10 and 225 pounds, if the Mets ever let us have a little fun.</span></p>
<p><a href="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2017/07/597e8f56474f7506281783.gif"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-5137" src="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2017/07/597e8f56474f7506281783.gif" alt="Cespedes pitching" width="322" height="181" /></a></p>
<p>On Thursday, Cespedes the outfielder bounced a Little League Home Run (LLHR) down the right field line. Earlier in the night, he contributed a more traditional dinger to the Mets 6-5 victory, breaking his slump of 87 at-bats without a homer.</p>
<p>Below is the win probability chart from Tuesday night, which illustrates the back-and-forth nature of the game. The Padres had almost a 75% chance of victory after Allen Cordoba’s home run, but Travis d’Arnaud’s RBI single, Asdrubal Cabrera’s RBI double, and the aforementioned LLHR made the difference.</p>
<p><a href="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2017/07/wpa-chart.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-5138" src="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2017/07/wpa-chart.png" alt="wpa chart" width="627" height="291" /></a></p>
<p>James Paxton shut down the Mets on Sunday with 8 strikeouts in 6 scoreless innings. Meanwhile, Seth Lugo struggled from the offset, giving up early homers to Nelson Cruz and Leonys Martín.</p>
<h3>Trade Buzz</h3>
<p>Mets first baseman Lucas Duda was traded to the Rays on Thursday for minor league pitcher Drew Smith. Smith was drafted by the Tigers in the third round of the 2015 MLB draft, and was later included in the trade that sent Mikie Mahtook to Detroit. In 79 relief appearances, he is 5-4 with 1.80 ERA, 13 saves and 40 strikeouts. The 23-year-old righthander has been assigned to Double-A Binghamton.</p>
<p>With the Duda deal, the Mets became deadline sellers, right? Wrong. Their next move was to acquire RHP A.J. Ramos from the Marlins in exchange for minor leaguers Merandy Gonzalez and Ricardo Cespedes. Ramos has had a down year so far, with a 3.63 ERA, 3.91 FIP and 1.31 WHIP in 40 innings. On the other hand, he arrives in Queens with another year of control. This deal indicates that the Mets are serious about contending in 2018.</p>
<p>Addison Reed remains the Mets’ prize trade chip. Trade rumors have been swirling, but Buster Olney reports that “bidding on Addison Reed [is] down to about five possible suitors, Red Sox among them.”</p>
<h3>We Followed Lucas Duda</h3>
<p>Chances are that you know and love the “We Follow Lucas Duda” Instagram account. Curated by Curtis Granderson, the page features Duda bat-flipping a golf club, Duda as a Lego action figure, and Duda the cowboy.</p>
<p><a href="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2017/07/Capture.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-5135" src="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2017/07/Capture.jpg" alt="Cowboy" width="938" height="602" /></a></p>
<p>Although the erstwhile Mets first basemen now wears Tampa blue, that doesn’t mean the Instagram is doomed. Granderson traded the account to the Rays in exchange for donated tickets to a charity in the St. Petersburg area.</p>
<h3>Injury Update</h3>
<p>Matt Harvey is making progress on his rehab assignment. The initial diagnosis was a stress reaction in his right scapula, but <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/jacob-degrom-upset-hitting-mitch-haniger-face-pitch-article-1.3368333">according to the New York Daily News</a>, “it was later revealed that Harvey was having trouble building up strength in the muscle under his scapula bone after surgery to address Thoracic Outlet Syndrome.” He is tossing at 150 feet and will gradually begin throwing from a mound.</p>
<p>Zack Wheeler returned to the DL on July 24 with a stress reaction in his right arm. The Mets announced that the injury was specific to his humerus, which is the bone that extends from the shoulder to the elbow Wheeler described it as “bone soreness,” adding that, “I’m not going to be dumb and try and pitch with something that will hurt me after missing two full seasons.”</p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Jos</span><span style="font-weight: 400">é</span><span style="font-weight: 400"> Reyes left Sunday’s game after being hit by a 98 mph fastball on his forearm. X-rays came back negative, but any long term injury could bring</span><span style="font-weight: 400"> Amed Rosario to Queens even sooner than expected.</span></p>
<p><em>Photo credit: Brad Penner &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Game recap July 30: Pitching through pain, but not very well</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/31/game-recap-july-30-pitching-through-pain-but-not-very-well/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Jul 2017 09:55:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Noah Grand]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[A.J. Ramos]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Addison Reed]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asdrubal Cabrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fernando Salas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Reyes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Edgin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Smoker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Reynolds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Conforto]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Neil Walker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Seth Lugo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yoenis Cespedes]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5145</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It’s hard not to feel bad for Seth Lugo every time he goes out to pitch. The 27-year old journeyman missed two months with a partial UCL tear in his throwing elbow. He didn’t get a big signing bonus, and this is just his first year in the big leagues. If Lugo shuts down his [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It’s hard not to feel bad for Seth Lugo every time he goes out to pitch. The 27-year old journeyman missed two months with a partial UCL tear in his throwing elbow. He didn’t get a big signing bonus, and this is just his first year in the big leagues. If Lugo shuts down his arm and goes for surgery, he may never get back to the big leagues. On the other hand, if he keeps pitching with a partially torn UCL, it could snap at any moment.</p>
<p>Lugo came out Sunday like a pitcher who didn’t fully trust his arm. He kept throwing pitches over the middle of the plate and hoped that he could fool hitters just by moving up and down the zone. Nelson Cruz struck first, with a three-run upper deck homer. When Leonys Martin hit his first home run of the season off the facing of the upper deck, it was pretty clear that this wouldn’t be Lugo’s day. When Yoenis Cespedes lost a ball in the sun and it fell for a “triple,” it felt like we could just fast forward to the end of a seemingly inevitable 9-1 loss.</p>
<p>Every pitcher the Mets threw out raised more questions about what this team’s plan is. Lugo only allowed one infield hit over the next three innings to stabilize his day. When the Mets activated A.J. Ramos, it seemed like Fernando Salas would get released. Instead the Mets designated Josh Edgin for assignment and Salas came in for the sixth. He got an out, then a routine ground ball that Neil Walker couldn’t handle at second. Salas isn’t good enough to survive giving a team extra outs – he walked Mike Zunino and later Ben Gamel singled in a run. With Edgin out of the pen, Terry Collins turned to Josh Smoker as his lower leverage lefty for the seventh. It was his turn to give up a run.</p>
<p>Finally it was Ramos’ turn. Collins wanted to get him work, even down 7-0. Ramos pitched like the stereotypical closer who doesn’t focus well when used in non-save situations. He gave up a walk, single, and then a double play ball that Walker threw away on the turn. After allowing a run, Ramos gave up two wild pitches in the dirt and another single to make it 9-0. The Mets mounted a small two-out rally in the top of the ninth to avoid a shutout, but Michael Conforto looked at strike three to end the game.</p>
<h3>Reyes Injured</h3>
<p>Jose Reyes got drilled in the forearm by a 98 mph fastball in the top of the fifth inning. He crouched over in pain and had to leave the game immediately. Matt Reynolds moved over from third base to shortstop, while Asdrubal Cabrera entered the game at third. <a href="https://twitter.com/MarcCarig/status/891799519997722625">Marc Carig reported</a> after the game that Reyes’ X-rays are negative.</p>
<p>If Reyes is out for a while, remember that Reynolds is primarily a shortstop. It would be a mistake to assume that the Mets have to call up Amed Rosario because they don’t have any shortstops on the current big league roster. After all, they kept Reyes’ .286 on base percentage, weak glove, and awful off-field character there every day.</p>
<h3>More Trades Coming?</h3>
<p>The Mets don’t play again until after the trading deadline, but Addison Reed has been on the rumor mill for over a week. Many assumed the only rational reason for the Mets to designate Edgin for assignment was if they had lined up a trade. Once a player is designated for assignment, the team still has a week to trade that player before releasing him. However, <a href="https://twitter.com/AnthonyDiComo/status/891750873902202880">Anthony DiComo reported</a> just before the game that the Mets don’t have a trade for Edgin in the works.</p>
<p><em>Photo credit: Steven Bisig &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Why &#8216;buying&#8217; in the midst of a fire sale is Sandy Alderson&#8217;s savviest move yet</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/29/why-buying-in-the-midst-of-a-fire-sale-is-sandy-aldersons-savviest-move-yet/</link>
		<comments>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/29/why-buying-in-the-midst-of-a-fire-sale-is-sandy-aldersons-savviest-move-yet/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 29 Jul 2017 19:53:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Rich MacLeod]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Addison Reed]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AJ Ramos]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sandy Alderson]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5112</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Mets officially waived the white flag on Thursday, as they traded the long-tenured Lucas Duda to the Tampa Bay Rays for right-handed pitching prospect Drew Smith. As the team finds themselves with the fifth worst record in the National League, this was just the first of what is expected to be a bevy of [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Mets officially waived the white flag on Thursday, as they traded the long-tenured Lucas Duda to the Tampa Bay Rays for right-handed pitching prospect Drew Smith. As the team finds themselves with the fifth worst record in the National League, this was just the first of what is expected to be a bevy of moves by the Mets, who find themselves as sellers for the first time in three seasons.</p>
<p>After moving Duda, the club is still trying to trade veterans Addison Reed, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson, and Neil Walker—all of whom can be free agents after this season—by the July 31 trade deadline.</p>
<p>When the Mets announced on Friday night that they had acquired Miami Marlins closer AJ Ramos in exchange for prospects Merandy Gonzalez and Ricardo Cespedes, it came as a surprise; at least, at first.</p>
<p>Why would a team that&#8217;s in the middle of selling, make a move to &#8220;buy&#8221; a closer from another team? Simple: This is a reload, not a rebuild.</p>
<p>Despite their difficult season, the Mets expect to contend in 2018 and Ramos, unlike Reed, is under team control next year. With the acquisitions of Ramos and Smith—who has a 1.60 ERA in the minor leagues—New York is already working on shoring up their bullpen for next year&#8217;s expected run.</p>
<p>While Ramos is having a down year by his standards—his 3.63 ERA is his highest in five years—he should still be an excellent addition to this Mets bullpen over the next year and a half. Since his debut in 2012, Ramos has a 2.78 ERA, 92 saves, and is striking out 10.4 batters per 9 innings.</p>
<p>Sandy Alderson has made a lot of moves in his time as Mets general manager, both buying and selling, but this may very well be his savviest transaction yet.</p>
<p>Not only does the acquisition of Ramos help the bullpen over the next year and a half, but this move also means the Mets won&#8217;t have to spend big money on a set-up man this offseason <em>and </em>it takes a top bullpen arm off of the trade market, which can only increase Addison Reed&#8217;s trade value.</p>
<p>Since being acquired by the Mets in 2015, Reed has been one of the best relievers in all of baseball as the right-hander has a 2.09 ERA, 1.014 WHIP and 21 saves in 145 appearances with the club. He was already expected to warrant a solid return in a trade, and with the Mets removing Ramos as an option for other teams, it&#8217;s increasingly possible that they may be able to get an even better return.</p>
<p>While this has been a lost season for this organization, the Mets have already begun their reload for a run in 2018. With the team in sell mode, this was unexpected and a bit out-of-the-box&#8230; but that&#8217;s what makes it such a smart and creative move by Sandy Alderson. We&#8217;ll find out soon enough what else he has up his sleeve.</p>
<p><em>Photo credit: Jasen Vinlove &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Game Recap July 25: Yo&#8217;s Heroics</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/26/mets-padres-game-recap-july-25-yoenis-cespedes-seth-lugo/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Jul 2017 09:55:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Josh Burton]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Game Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Addison Reed]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asdrubal Cabrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Curtis Granderson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Conforto]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Paul Sewald]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Seth Lugo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yoenis Cespedes]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Without Yoenis Cespedes, there is no magical run to the 2015 World Series. There is no tears-of-joy-inducing video montage, there is no beatdown of the Cubs and there is no heartbreak during Game 5 in Flushing. And, after each of the last two seasons, it seemed as if there would be no more Yo for [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Without Yoenis Cespedes, there is no magical run to the 2015 World Series. There is no tears-of-joy-inducing video montage, there is no beatdown of the Cubs and there is no heartbreak during Game 5 in Flushing. And, after each of the last two seasons, it seemed as if there would be no more Yo for the Amazin&#8217;s, as he flirted with becoming the latest exhilarating Met to ascend to true stardom elsewhere.</p>
<p>Through much of this disappointing 2017 campaign, however, the Cespedes honeymoon has been on the verge of fading. Limited with nagging hamstring injuries and underperformance when he been able to play, he just hasn&#8217;t been the same lineup-anchoring presence. However, if Tuesday&#8217;s 6-5 Mets win over the Padres is any indication, the slugger might be turning his season around.</p>
<p>Cespedes got New York on the board early, crushing a solo shot off Kyle Lloyd &#8212; making his MLB debut &#8212; in the top of the 1st to put the Mets up 1-0. It was the slugger&#8217;s first home run since June 23 in San Francisco and the type of brute-strength bomb he has made a staple of his career.</p>
<p>His two other hits, a RBI double in the fifth and go-ahead check-swing Little League roundtripper in the seventh, may have had more impact over the course of the game, but neither felt more like 2015 Cespedes than when he deposited Lloyd&#8217;s hanging slider into Petco Park&#8217;s left field seats. Michael Conforto came in for him on a double-switch later on &#8212; it was due to leg &#8220;fatigue&#8221; &#8212; but it was a positive night nonetheless.</p>
<p>Seth Lugo gave the lead back in the second, when home runs from Hunter Renfroe and Allen Cordoba made it 3-1 in favor of the Friars. San Diego would score once more off Lugo, who mostly settled down after making a few mistakes in the first couple of frames. He was charged with four runs (three earned) in his six innings and only struck out one batter with no walks.</p>
<p>Officially, Cespedes&#8217; third hit of the night was ruled a triple, as he accidentally plopped a Phil Maton pitch just inside the right field foul line just where the shifted Padres weren&#8217;t. A wild Wil Myers relay throw past third base allowed Cespedes to finish off the Mets&#8217; second error-aided Little League home run in as many series.</p>
<p>Paul Sewald threw a pair of perfect innings to back Lugo up but, for the second night in a row, potential trade candidate Addison Reed made things interesting in the bottom of the ninth. He needed Asdrubal Cabrera to make a nice play on a Jose Pirela grounder to stave off San Diego and bring the Mets to within nine games of the Rockies in the NL Wild Card race.</p>
<h3><strong>Bullpen bouncing back<br />
</strong></h3>
<p>If the top story from this win is Cespedes&#8217; three-hit performance, the second-biggest should be Sewald, who looked as good on Tuesday as he has all season. After a rough start to June, the rookie has been the Mets&#8217; best reliever in the past month or so. In Sewald&#8217;s last 13 innings (12 games), he has given up just nine baserunners and three runs while striking out 16 batters.</p>
<p>When his fastball is moving in on righties (and away from lefties) and the slider is working, Sewald can be fairly close to unhittable. Achieving a certain level of consistency is his next goal, but for now, he continues to be one of the most important guys in a bullpen that has quietly worked to redeem itself of late.</p>
<h3>The outfield rotation</h3>
<p>This is something Terry Collins, much to the chagrin of most fans, has mentioned in the past and will clearly stick to. Curtis Granderson got the start in center field over Conforto with a righty on the mound and reached base three times in five plate appearances. He also scored a pair of runs.</p>
<p>San Diego&#8217;s next two starters, Jhoulys Chacin and Luis Perdomo, are both right-handed, so convention would tell you that Terry would try to get Granderson in the lineup at least one more time this series. Cespedes&#8217; status for Wednesday&#8217;s game is still unclear but it wouldn&#8217;t be surprising to see at least a preventative off-day for Yoenis, with Conforto starting in left and Granderson back in center.</p>
<h3>Looking ahead</h3>
<p>Steven Matz, he of three consecutive subpar outings, will be on the bump for the Mets on Wednesday night at 10:10 p.m. Eastern against Chacin, who has a 2.72 ERA since the start of June and boasts a sub-2.00 ERA at Petco Park this season. He was supposed to start on Tuesday, but was pushed a day due to lower back tightness. Chacin&#8217;s last outing against the Mets &#8212; back on May 23 &#8212; was a disastrous one, as he gave up seven first inning runs en route to a loss.</p>
<p>Matz&#8217;s last start of 2016 was against the Padres and it was one of the best of his career, as he allowed one hit through 7.1 scoreless innings in a 5-1 win.</p>
<p><em>Photo credit: Jake Roth &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Game recap July 24: Shades of angst</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/25/game-recap-july-24-shades-of-angst/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Jul 2017 09:55:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sergei Burbank]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Game Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Addison Reed]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jacob deGrom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jay Bruce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Travis d'Arnaud]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wilmer Flores]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yoenis Cespedes]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5054</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Mets 5, Padres 3, Final Last night was the kind of start that epitomizes Mets fans’ agony; a starter provided a superlative outing, but instead of making for an enjoyable watchable game, it only makes the Flushing faithful dream about what might have been this summer. Jacob deGrom provided eight stingy innings, allowing two earned runs [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Mets 5, Padres 3, Final</p>
<p>Last night was the kind of start that epitomizes Mets fans’ agony; a starter provided a superlative outing, but instead of making for an enjoyable watchable game, it only makes the Flushing faithful dream about what might have been this summer. Jacob deGrom provided eight stingy innings, allowing two earned runs (including a Hunter Renfroe solo homer) over eight innings and 100 pitches. (Renfroe would add another solo home run in the ninth.)</p>
<p>The Mets led off the scoring with a Wilmer Flores home run in the second inning, and never looked back, tacking on runs with RBI knocks by Yoenis Cespedes and Jay Bruce in the third. Bruce would have another run batted in on the night while Jose Reyes, <a href="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/21/game-recap-july-20-camp-day/">who we have seen in these parts before</a>, stole his 500th career base in the 8th inning, and was subsequently driven in by Travis d’Arnaud for the Mets’ fifth run.</p>
<p>Things got messy in the ninth, as Addison Reed had his second shaky outing in a row, allowing a leadoff home run to Renfroe to dead center and back-to-back singles. Things got weird when pinch hitter Jabari Blash sent a ball just foul of the right field pole, but the crew required a video review to make the call. (Reed struck him out on the next pitch.) Reed induced a fly ball from Matt Szczur to end the game, and his 17th save of the season.</p>
<p>Competent outing or no, the Nationals’ lead on the NL East seems insurmountable, and minds begin to focus on next summer. Asdrubal Cabrera continued to be an excellent trade showcase by reaching base four times, and Addison Reed emerged from a messy ninth with another save.</p>
<p>The series continues Tuesday at 10:10 p.m. ET, with Seth Lugo (4-2, 4.05) taking on Jhoulys Chacin (9-7, 4.26).</p>
<p><em>Photo credit: Jake Roth &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Game recap July 21: Michael Conforto Home Run Hour</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/22/game-recap-july-21-michael-conforto-home-run-hour/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 22 Jul 2017 09:55:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Lukas Vlahos]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Game Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Addison Reed]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asdrubal Cabrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Curtis Granderson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Erik Goeddel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jerry Blevins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lucas Duda]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Conforto]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Paul Sewald]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steven Matz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[T.J. Rivera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yoenis Cespedes]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5026</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Primer The struggling Steven Matz, following up two starts in which he allowed 12 runs in 5.1 innings, took the mound against the rebuilding Oakland Athletics. Paul Blackburn, a rookie running a 3.66 K/9 and surviving on a .230 BABIP, opposed the Mets. It’s tough to dress up a matchup between two mediocre pitchers (probably a [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3>Primer</h3>
<p>The struggling Steven Matz, following up two starts in which he allowed 12 runs in 5.1 innings, took the mound against the rebuilding Oakland Athletics. Paul Blackburn, a rookie running a 3.66 K/9 and surviving on a .230 BABIP, opposed the Mets. It’s tough to dress up a matchup between two mediocre pitchers (probably a generous categorization for Matz at the moment) and two bad teams, especially with both fan bases more tuned in to trade rumors than the actual games. But hey, Michael Conforto was starting, so we’ve got that going for us.</p>
<h3>Game Recap</h3>
<p>Matz didn’t get off to a great start, allowing the first three Athletics to single and immediately putting the Mets in a 1-0 hole. He was bailed out by a ground ball double play off the bat of Khris Davis, putting a runner at third with two outs, and Matz completed the inning by striking out Matt Chapman to limit the damage. Despite that rough start, Matz settled down, working around a couple singles but holding the A’s to just the one run for the first four innings.</p>
<p>The Met offense was largely stymied the first time through the batting order, with the first hit coming from Matz himself with two outs in the third. Conforto immediately capitalized, launching a monstrous two run home run to the Shea Bridge to flip the score and give the Mets a 2-1 lead.</p>
<p>That lead would disappear in the fifth, as Matz ran into more trouble. With one out, Rajai Davis singled and stole second despite being caught by a pick off. Marcus Semien then singled in the tying run and stole second himself. Semien moved to third on a single from Ryon Healy, then scored on a sacrifice fly from Khris Davis, putting Oakland back in front 3-2.</p>
<p>After not getting through five innings in his previous two starts, giving up three runs in five innings was a step up for Matz, albeit an underwhelming one. Still, it was surprising when Terry Collins pinch hit for him in the bottom of the fifth, handing the game off to the bullpen even with Matz at only 83 pitches. He finished with five strikeouts (a step up from his pitiful strikeout rates since returning from the DL), allowing nine hits and three runs.</p>
<p>Curtis Granderson came up empty as a pinch hitter and the Mets didn’t score in the bottom of the fifth, but they’d jump back on top in the sixth inning. Asdrubal Cabrera walked, Yoenis Cespedes singled, and Lucas Duda reached on an infield single that took a bad hop and hit Oakland 1B Ryon Healy in the face (he left the game, but seemed to avoid any serious injury). That loaded the bases with one out for T.J. Rivera, who lined a single into center to score two runs. Rajai Davis’s throw went to third, where Duda was tagged out, but Matt Chapman’s subsequent throw to second base skipped into right field and rolled all the way to the warning track, allowing Rivera to round the bases and score. At the end of the play, the Mets had a 5-3 lead.</p>
<p>Paul Sewald tossed a scoreless seventh, and the Mets added more cushion in the bottom half. With a runner on, Michael Conforto hit a second two-run home run, this one a line drive down the right field line. Since the All Star Break, Conforto is batting .323 with four home runs and two doubles, and continues to remind both the front office and Terry Collins that he shouldn’t be part of any sort of ridiculous outfield rotation.</p>
<p>With a 7-3 lead heading to the eighth, the Mets seemed to be in a good spot, but the bullpen managed to keep things interesting. Erik Goeddel entered and retired only one of the four batters he faced, allowing a run and departing with runners on first and third with one out. Terry Collins called on Addison Reed for the five-out save, who walked Rajai Davis on a borderline pitch, then allowed an RBI single to Marcus Semien to cut the Met lead to 7-5.</p>
<p>Perhaps realizing that Reed didn’t have his best stuff, Collins called on Jerry Blevins to escape the mess. Blevins pitched brilliantly, inducing a pop out from Yonder Alonso and striking out Khris Davis to escape the inning. Blevins stayed in for the ninth and worked another clean inning, recording his fifth save of the year and his first five-out performance since 2013 (against the Mets, when he was still a member of the Washington Nationals).</p>
<h3>Thoughts from the Game</h3>
<p>It’s been a while since we’ve had a good Terry Collins rant, but here we go. Addison Reed pitched 1.1 innings on July 19, another inning on the 20th, and was called upon for a five-out save last night. He&#8217;s already one of the most overused pitchers in baseball, and as the Mets should be showcasing him for other teams, Collins is continuing to run him into the ground. Most reasonable teams won’t decide Reed isn’t worthwhile because of one bad outing of course, but risking an injury or even the slightest drop in value at this point is needlessly reckless on top of being tactically moronic.</p>
<p>There’s not much else to discuss from this game. Steven Matz still seems off, and even with the strikeouts back, he was still extremely hittable. Perhaps he’s still hurt, or perhaps the gradually mounting list of injuries are finally having a cumulative effect. Or it’s just a rough patch, because pitching is hard, man.</p>
<h3>Other Met News</h3>
<p>Yoenis Cespedes’ comments deserve some mention here, even if any rational fan realizes that any sort of controversy is nonsensical. Cespedes isn’t pulling a Kyrie Irving and asking for a trade; he’s merely stating some affection for the place where he got his start in the major leagues and expressed a desire to retire there. In the short term, there’s no reason to think he’s not totally committed to the Mets, and he has expressed his love for both this city and this team multiple times in the past.</p>
<p>As for his comments on Bob Melvin and that being perceived as throwing Terry Collins under the bus, I say good. Maybe players noting that Collins is a bad manager would wake ownership up.</p>
<p><em>Photo credit: Brad Penner &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Game recap July 20: Camp Day</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/21/game-recap-july-20-camp-day/</link>
		<comments>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/21/game-recap-july-20-camp-day/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 21 Jul 2017 09:55:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sergei Burbank]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Game Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Addison Reed]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Erik Goeddel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Reyes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lucas Duda]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Conforto]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rene Rivera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Seth Lugo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wilmer Flores]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yoenis Cespedes]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5006</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Mets 3, Cardinals 2- FINAL An inexplicable, if now-characteristic, defensive lapse cost the Cardinals the game in the bottom of the ninth as the Mets won their final game of the series with the Cardinals in walk-off fashion after Jose Reyes—who was arrested in 2015 after allegedly grabbing his wife, Katherine Ramirez, by the throat [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Mets 3, Cardinals 2- FINAL</p>
<p>An inexplicable, if now-characteristic, defensive lapse cost the Cardinals the game in the bottom of the ninth as the Mets won their final game of the series with the Cardinals in walk-off fashion after Jose Reyes—who <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/11/sports/baseball/arrest-of-jose-reyes-may-test-baseballs-new-domestic-violence-policy.html" target="_blank">was arrested in 2015</a> after allegedly grabbing his wife, Katherine Ramirez, by the throat and shoving her into a sliding-glass door while on vacation (criminal charges were dropped, but Reyes served a 52-game suspension before returning to a hero’s welcome in Flushing)—dribbled a single up the first base line, scoring Yoenis Cespedes from third. Mobbed by his teammates at first base and feted by a thin crowd composed overwhelmingly of children, as it was a 12.10 p.m. first pitch “Camp Day,” Reyes’ status as hero of the day was confirmed.</p>
<p>Almost three thousand miles to the West, Orenthal James Simpson—who, according to police records, beat then-wife, Nicole, so badly on New Year’s Day, 1989, that she required treatment at a hospital (Simpson would subsequently be <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1994/06/18/us/simpson-case-marriage-handling-1989-wife-beating-case-was-terrible-joke.html" target="_blank">sentenced to 120 hours of community service</a>)—was granted parole by the state of Nevada after serving nine years of a nine- to 33-year sentence for stealing inanimate objects. (Simpson was acquitted in 1994 after standing trial for killing two human beings, including his then-ex-wife, Nicole Brown. Statistical analysis has shown that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/money/us-money-blog/2014/oct/20/domestic-private-violence-women-men-abuse-hbo-ray-rice" target="_blank">75 percent of abused women who are murdered are killed after they leave their abusers</a>.)</p>
<p>Before dinnertime, it had already been a real banner day for professional athletes accused of beating women while escaping the full consequences of their actions; it is also known as “Thursday.”</p>
<p>Early on in the SNY broadcast, Ron Darling dismissed the rougher edges of the broadcast while commenting, “it’s Camp Day”; a sentiment, frankly, that could encompass this entire series with the Cardinals. While the two sides traded victories, the losing team has been out of the game early (the run differential for the first three games of the series was 6.5), and neither team seems to be playing for this season. For much of the week, it’s felt like the games don’t count.</p>
<p>And yet they do.</p>
<p>Noted by Gary Cohen, players like Astrubal Cabrera (and, sob, Lucas Duda) are playing up their trade value, so it was still heartening to see Michael Conforto (who is not, Mets fans pray, trade bait this month BUT YOU NEVER KNOW) reach base four times with two walks, a single, and a double. Of note was a particularly canny first-inning walk that brought Cespedes to the plate with two outs (it was less heartening to watch Cespedes continually flail in Conforto’s wake, but it’s all about the moral victories now). Lucas Duda led off the second with a solo home run, his 17th of the season.</p>
<p>Seth Lugo held the Cardinals hitless through the first four innings, but St. Louis third baseman Greg Garcia broke up the no-hit bid with two outs in top of the fifth. While solid through five innings, Lugo lost the ability to notch a win in the sixth, falling behind the first two batters, walking Matt Carpenter on four straight pitches. Tommy Pham tied the game with an RBI double on the next one, but the tie was preserved with two great picks of low throws from T.J. Rivera at third base by Duda . Lugo got through two-thirds of the seventh before the Cardinals put two on with two out, and Terry Collins had to turn to the Mets’ hall of horrors, aka its bullpen. Erik Goeddel induced Jedd Gyorko, pinch hitting for Cardinals starter Lance Lynn, to pop out to Rene Rivera, who made a nifty catch against the screen behind home plate to preserve Lugo’s gutsy No Decision.</p>
<p>Goeddel reverted to the painful mean in the very next inning, surrendering a one-out solo home run to Tommy Pham in the top of the eighth, but Wilmer Flores answered in the bottom of the frame with a game-tying pinch hit home run off left-handed reliever Brett Cecil, his third career pinch-hit home run and first since June 24th. Producing as many runs in one at-bat as Jose Reyes—whose wife suffered thigh, neck, and wrist injuries as a direct result of his alleged actions—did in four.</p>
<p>Addison Reed pitched a scoreless ninth. Former Cardinals closer Trevor Rosenthal took the mound in the bottom of the inning, and walked Conforto to lead things off. Cespedes erased the Mets’ center fielder with a fielder’s choice groundout to third. Duda popped out to right, but T.J. Rivera poked a two-out single that pushed Cespedes, the winning run, to third. Reyes, who, <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3311440/Jose-Reyes-arrested-Hawaii-suspicion-assaulting-wife-Katherine-Ramirez-Hawaiian-hotel-room.html" target="_blank">according to a 2015 police report</a>, grabbed his wife off a bed, shoved her, then gripped her by the throat and pushed her into a glass door, pulled a sharp ground ball down the first base line where Matt Carpenter fielded it but turned to discover that Rosenthal had broken late to cover the bag. Carpenter barked angrily at his closer as he lost the foot race, hopping over a sliding Reyes, father of four (three of whom were borne by the woman he allegedly assaulted), reaching base safely while his teammates poured out of the dugout to congratulate their game-winning shortstop.</p>
<p>Today the Mets take on the Oakland Athletics, a.k.a. the Ghost of Christmas Future; this week A’s general manager Billy Beane <a href="http://deadspin.com/billy-beane-admits-that-being-an-as-fan-is-hell-1796980365" target="_blank">publicly admitted</a> the team is in a 20-year-long rebuilding phase. Someday soon the most diehard of their fans, and perhaps even the Mets themselves, will admit the same.</p>
<p>[New York State resources for victims of domestic violence can be found at this link: <a href="http://www.opdv.ny.gov/help/dvhotlines.html" target="_blank">http://www.opdv.ny.gov/help/dvhotlines.html</a>]</p>
<p><em>Photo credit: Adam Hunger &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Game Recap July 19: Playing for Pride</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/20/game-recap-july-19-playing-for-pride/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 20 Jul 2017 09:55:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[David Capobianco]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Game Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Addison Reed]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jacob deGrom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jay Bruce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jerry Blevins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Reyes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lucas Duda]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Paul Sewald]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wilmer Flores]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yoenis Cespedes]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4999</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[At this point in the season, wins and losses for the Mets don&#8217;t hold much meaning; they&#8217;re not going to get back in the race, and I think even most of the players would admit to that now. So as enjoyable as last night&#8217;s 7-3 win may have been, it really didn&#8217;t mean much towards anything. [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>At this point in the season, wins and losses for the Mets don&#8217;t hold much meaning; they&#8217;re not going to get back in the race, and I think even most of the players would admit to that now. So as enjoyable as last night&#8217;s 7-3 win may have been, it really didn&#8217;t mean much towards anything. On top of that, wins are much harder to enjoy in a lost season, especially after two playoff seasons, and<em> especially</em> when the team you&#8217;re watching may be about to drastically change in the coming weeks and months. All of that said though, wins are never not at least somewhat amusing, and it&#8217;s still fun to see the team explode on offense like it did in the first few innings last night.</p>
<p>The Mets completely beat up on Mike Leake early and often. They banged out five hits and three runs in the first inning, with all three runs scoring on consecutive two-out hits by Yoenis Cespedes, Lucas Duda, and Wilmer Flores. And they weren&#8217;t done there, as the second inning saw them add four more runs on five hits, an error, and an intentional walk. An RBI single by Jay Bruce, an RBI double by Cespedes, and a two-RBI double by Jose Reyes highlighted the rally. And just like that, the Mets had erupted for a total of seven runs in just two innings off Leake, who looked very, um, leaky.</p>
<p>For the Mets, Jacob deGrom didn&#8217;t necessarily look great early on either, and didn&#8217;t have his best stuff, only striking out three on the night. But he somehow still gutted out 6.2 innings of one-run ball. He held the Cardinals scoreless until the seventh, when he allowed an RBI double to Luke Voit off the left field wall, and that was his final batter of the night. It was the only real stumble of the game for deGrom, who scattered seven total hits and one walk over the rest of his outing.</p>
<p>The win wasn&#8217;t without some heartache, though, because the Mets&#8217; bullpen still had to pitch in this game. Paul Sewald was called on in the eighth inning, up 7-1 at the time. He faced four batters, walked two and got two outs, and then was relieved by Jerry Blevins with two outs and two on. Blevins gave up two hits to his first two batters, the latter of which scored the two inherited runners, and then walked a pinch-hitting Adam Wainwright. Yes, Blevins walked a pitcher who was pinch-hitting.</p>
<p>Since June 17, Blevins has faced 38 hitters, has walked seven of them (18.4%), allowed 12 hits, and has struck out only six of them (15.4%). His control has completely abandoned him. By the way, I&#8217;m sure this is completely unrelated, but this was Blevins&#8217; 47th appearance of the season, which ties him for the MLB lead. He has 120 appearances since the start of 2016. Whatever though, I&#8217;m sure that means nothing.</p>
<p>Anyway, Blevins was pulled for Addison Reed, who was making his 123rd appearance since the start of 2016. Reed worked out of the jam in the eighth and pitched a scoreless ninth to record a four-out save to finish the victory, and build his trade value that much more. Rumors still continue to circulate about Reed, and his tenure on the Mets appears likely to be reaching an end very soon.</p>
<h3>OTHER NEWS OF THE DAY</h3>
<p>Trade rumors are aplenty. The Red Sox, still in desperate need of a third baseman after missing out on Todd Frazier, have <a href="https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/887637410217177088">reportedly scouted</a> three Mets players who could potentially fill that void for them: Wilmer Flores, Asdrubal Cabrera, and T.J. Rivera, though none of those players are actually third basemen.</p>
<p>In addition to that, Ken Rosenthal <a href="https://www.facebook.com/kenrosenthalsports/posts/1454374744628252" target="_blank">wrote on Facebook</a> that the Mets would prefer to trade Curtis Granderson to Jay Bruce, and may consider keeping Bruce and offering him a qualifying offer. It&#8217;s hard to tell if this is actually true or just a leak on the Mets part to enforce the façade that they&#8217;re not totally desperate to trade Bruce, but a qualifying offer for Bruce would be an absolute mistake. Bruce is undoubtably having a good season, but with the current market for corner outfielders, an $18-20 million qualifying offer for Bruce is a total overpay. He would not get that money on the free agent market, so he&#8217;d be very likely to accept the offer. And if he does that, then the Mets would have blown a significant portion of their offseason budget on a corner outfielder that wasn&#8217;t totally vital, despite absolutely needing upgrades at center field, third base, second base, and maybe catcher, along with at least one starting pitcher and three relievers. Not to mention the dangers of acquiring yet another player on a non-commital, one-year deal as opposed to a long-term deal, rendering it difficult to plan long-term. To put it gently, it would not be a prudent management of resources.</p>
<h3>TODAY</h3>
<p>The Mets close out the four-game set with the Cardinals at 12:10 p.m. Seth Lugo takes on Lance Lynn in the series finale.</p>
<p><em>Photo credit: Anthony Gruppuso &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Game recap July 7: Power play</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/08/game-recap-july-7-power-play/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 08 Jul 2017 09:55:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Lukas Vlahos]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Game Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Addison Reed]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asdrubal Cabrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Curtis Granderson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jacob deGrom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jay Bruce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jerry Blevins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Reyes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Paul Sewald]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[T.J. Rivera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Travis d'Arnaud]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yoenis Cespedes]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4882</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Primer After losing two games to the Nationals and having the third mercifully rained out, the Mets come into St. Louis for their last series before the All Star Break. Jacob deGrom, on a fantastic run after some early season troubles, took the mound opposite Cardinal ace Carlos Martinez. It should have been a matchup [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3>Primer</h3>
<p>After losing two games to the Nationals and having the third mercifully rained out, the Mets come into St. Louis for their last series before the All Star Break. Jacob deGrom, on a fantastic run after some early season troubles, took the mound opposite Cardinal ace Carlos Martinez. It should have been a matchup of two All Stars if not for deGrom being snubbed, so this game offered deGrom the opportunity to show the NL what sort of mistake they made.</p>
<h3>Game Recap</h3>
<p>Instead of getting dominated by Carlos Martinez like they usually do, the Mets jumped out to an early lead in the first. Curtis Granderson and Asdrubal Cabrera drew walks and Yoenis Cespedes bounced a single through the left side to load the bases with no outs. Two batters later, T.J. Rivera was hit by a pitch to give the Mets a 1-0 lead. Unfortunately, the Mets squandered a chance at a bigger inning when Cabrera made an ill-advised attempt to score on a fly out from Lucas Duda.</p>
<p>Jose Reyes led off the second with a home run to give the Mets a 2-0 lead, and for a while it looked like that would be more than enough for Jacob deGrom. After his no-hit bid was spoiled by a ball lost in the lights last time out, deGrom set down the first six Cardinals in order, including two strikeouts. Such electric stuff prompted some premature reactions, like this one from yours truly:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Have an odd feeling about deGrom tonight. Totally meaningless and most likely wrong, but you never know&#8230;</p>
<p>&mdash; Lukas Vlahos (@lvlahos343) <a href="https://twitter.com/lvlahos343/status/883488961183797249">July 8, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Jinxing a no-hitter is of course nonsense, but if it was a real thing I certainly committed a cardinal sin there (no pun intended). On queue, Randal Grichuk and Paul DeJong lead off the bottom of the third with back-to-back home runs to tie the game at two. deGrom got the next three Cardinals in order, but the Met lead was gone, as were Twitter fantasies of a no-hitter.</p>
<p>The Mets were right there to pick up their ace in the top of the fourth. Reyes lined a one-out double, scoring one batter later on a single from Travis d’Arnaud. deGrom then hit a grounder that should have been a double play, but Matt Carpenter was too far from second base in bunt defense to turn it. Granderson promptly made the Cardinals pay, lining a double down the right field line to give the Mets another two-run lead.</p>
<p>deGrom couldn’t make that lead stand up either, as he continued to struggle with the long ball. Just as in the third inning, the first two Cardinals hit home runs, as Dexter Fowler and Jedd Gyorko hit solo home runs to tie the game at four. It was the first time deGrom had ever given up four home runs in a game, and he managed to do it in a span of seven batters to boot.</p>
<p>Once again, however, the Met offense picked their ace up. With one out in the fifth, Jay Bruce launched his 22nd home run of the year to give the Mets a 5-4 lead. deGrom induced an inning-ending double play in both the fifth and sixth, and the Mets got him another insurance run in the seventh when T.J. Rivera drove in Cespedes with a double.</p>
<p>For the third time, deGrom had a two-run lead in the seventh to go with a surprisingly low pitch count despite giving up the four home runs. This time, he made the lead stand up, working around a two-out double from Paul DeJong to keep St. Louis off the board. Though he fought his command, frequently missing over the plate, this was one of those trademark gutty starts from deGrom (to quote Keith). He went seven innings, struck out five, and allowed eight hits, with a fluky four of them leaving the yard.</p>
<p>Jerry Blevins entered for the eighth inning, but his struggles continued as he allowed a leadoff single to Matt Carpenter. Paul Sewald came in and poured some gasoline on that fire, allowing a single to Stephen Piscotty to put the tying runs on with none out. Dexter Fowler then hit a ball that should have been a double play, but Cabrera had trouble on the transfer. A sacrifice fly made the game 6-5, but Sewald got the next out to preserve the Met lead.</p>
<p>After a relatively quiet top of the ninth interrupted by a broken umpire’s mask, Addison Reed was called upon for the save. Luke Voit hit a rocket on the first pitch he saw, but Granderson was playing deep and got back on the ball to make the catch. Grichuk also attacked the first pitch, and he too hit the ball hard to center field, but Granderson was once again positioned perfectly. To wrap things up, Reed struck out Paul DeJong after a nine-pitch battle, securing his 15th save of the year as well as a win for deGrom in his fifth consecutive start.</p>
<h3>Thoughts from the Game</h3>
<p>Don’t let Cabrera’s 0-for-4 night fool you, because he hit every ball hard. After walking in the first, he hit a line drive right at second baseman Matt Carpenter, then a hard ground ball that shortstop Paul DeJong made a sprawling play on. Next, he hit a deep laser to right that Stephen Piscotty made a fantastic play on as he crashed into the wall. And finally, Luke Voit robbed Cabrera on a hard ground ball in the eighth. He may be unhappy about playing second, but he’s been mashing since coming back from the DL, batting .326/.420/.535 over that span.</p>
<p>On a more team-wide note, the Mets are somehow back on the very fringes of contention again, as a recent swoon by the Rockies has put the 39-45 Mets within 9.5 games of the second wild card (<em>Editor&#8217;s note: Lukas, stop it</em>). Selling still seems to be the right move however &#8211; there are three teams between the Mets and Colorado (Atlanta, St. Louis, Chicago) and the Brewers, Diamondbacks, and Rockies are all probably due for some regression, but I see no real reason to believe the Mets are due for any positive regression either, and they simply cannot compete with the elite teams of the NL. Selling off assets and reloading for a better shot at next season is a better course of action that flailing desperately for a remote chance to get swept in the NLDS.</p>
<h3>Other Met News</h3>
<p>On the injury front, Michael Conforto is set to make his return to the major league club this afternoon after a rehab game with St. Lucie. That’d be great news if not for the fact that Conforto reportedly “felt something” during his start, but the Mets plan to play him anyway. Later reports had Conforto saying he felt great and that his hand just stiffened up (to be fair, he did go 3-for-4), but that’s hardly the most reassuring message. Hopefully the Mets don’t wind up pushing Conforto through an injury like we saw them do for much of last season.</p>
<p>After the Mets “made a strong effort” to bring back Bartolo Colon, the former Met elected to sign a minor league deal with the Twins instead. The Mets aren’t a contender, but the Twins are barely hanging in there, so that might not a factor in his choice. Perhaps he just didn’t want to hit, or the Twins offered him more money, or any other of a number of reasons. As someone who never quite understood the infatuation with Colon, I’m not particularly broken up about not getting to watch a 44-year-old, washed-up starter the rest of the season, but I get that plenty of Met fans are at least somewhat disappointed.</p>
<p>On the prospect side, Amed Rosario ranked second on <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=32224" target="_blank">BP’s midseason top 50 list</a> released earlier this week, while Dom Smith missed the cut. Smith also hit his fourth home run in July on Friday, and leads the minor leagues with 115 hits (PCL caveats apply).</p>
<p><em>Photo credit: Jeff Curry &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Who We Think the Mets Should Trade</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/03/our-modest-trade-deadline-proposals/</link>
		<comments>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/03/our-modest-trade-deadline-proposals/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Jul 2017 10:05:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Mets Staff]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lineup Card]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Addison Reed]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asdrubal Cabrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Curtis Granderson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fernando Salas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jacob deGrom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jay Bruce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jerry Blevins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lucas Duda]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Neil Walker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rene Rivera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sandy Alderson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tradez]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4707</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Life comes at you pretty fast. In one short month, the Mets have gone from Sandy Alderson proclaiming &#8220;A lot of the story [is] to be written,&#8221; to a resigned general manager sighing, &#8220;I think we have to be realistic about where we are&#8221; and &#8220;I don’t want to whitewash this. We haven’t played very well.&#8221; Most [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Life comes at you pretty fast.</p>
<p><a href="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2017/07/Capture.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-4721" src="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2017/07/Capture.png" alt="Capture" width="851" height="409" /></a></p>
<p>In one short month, the Mets have gone from Sandy Alderson <a href="http://nypost.com/2017/05/20/why-sandy-alderson-isnt-giving-up-on-the-mets-season/" target="_blank">proclaiming</a> &#8220;A lot of the story [is] to be written,&#8221; to a resigned general manager sighing, &#8220;I think we have to be realistic about where we are&#8221; <a href="http://nypost.com/2017/06/24/sandy-alderson-mets-on-the-verge-of-being-sellers/" target="_blank">and</a> &#8220;I don’t want to whitewash this. We haven’t played very well.&#8221; Most of that underperformance can be attributed to an injury epidemic that&#8217;s infiltrated every corner of the roster. The rest is that Jose Reyes and Rafael Montero suck. Whatever the cause, the 2017 Mets have played half their schedule, and they&#8217;re 38-43, nearly as far out of first place as they are close to the NL East basement. Worse, they&#8217;re just as far away from the second wild-card spot.</p>
<p>The competitive part of the Mets&#8217; season has ended.</p>
<p>Yet the Mets&#8217; competitive window remains open. The 2018 rotation will feature Flushing&#8217;s favorite pitcher, When Healthy. Other guys like Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz, Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman might also make some appearances.</p>
<p>With Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto as offensive building blocks, the top-level talent is there for a 2018 return to prominence. That&#8217;s why the next two months may be Alderson&#8217;s most important since he became <a href="https://twitter.com/metsgm" target="_blank">@MetsGM</a> after the 2010 season.</p>
<p>The catchphrase is &#8220;retool, not rebuild.&#8221; If the Mets trade their veterans on expiring or short-term contracts for pieces that will slot into next season&#8217;s lineup or bullpen, the 2018 story could look a lot different than this year&#8217;s. Here, then, is the Mets&#8217; inventory for a potential #FireSale that looks more realistic by the day. &#8212; Scott D. Simon (<a href="http://twitter.com/scottdsimon" target="_blank">@scottdsimon</a>)</p>
<h3>Addison Reed</h3>
<p>Perhaps the most valuable piece that the Mets have t<i>hat they&#8217;d actually move at the deadline</i>, Reed is a known late-inning commodity that every team would like. Finding the right fit and right return could be challenging, but I agree with <a href="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/26/for-all-you-kids-out-there-episode-60-process-stories/" target="_blank">Jeff and Jarrett</a> that a prospect floating around the edges of the BP Top 100 list sounds about right. So with the surprising Milwaukee Brewers needing more &#8216;pen arms to support a questionable pitching staff, I think they could be a nice fit, and perhaps High-A outfield prospect Trent Clark could be a return. Clark has question marks about future power production, but can likely hit for average and has speed. With the Brew Crew already possessing lots of young outfield talent, they could afford to part with him to snag an establish relief ace. &#8212; Bryan Grosnick (<a href="http://twitter.com/bgrosnick" target="_blank">@bgrosnick</a>)</p>
<h3>Lucas Duda</h3>
<p>Lucas Duda is a pending free agent with a pulse, so the Mets will be taking calls on him. Since becoming the full-time first baseman in 2014, Duda&#8217;s 129 wRC+ ranks 25th in baseball (min. 1000 PAs) and he&#8217;s on track for the best season of his career. With Dominic Smith waiting in the wings, it&#8217;s unlikely the Mets would re-sign Duda, so he&#8217;ll be an attractive piece to any team looking for lefty power at first base or DH.</p>
<div>First in line should be the Yankees, who are near the bottom of MLB in production from first base. The AL playoff race is red-hot and Duda offers the kind of prodigious power that can make a major impact in a tight spot. He&#8217;s a perfect fit for lefty-friendly Yankee Stadium and it&#8217;s not hard to imagine him hitting 20-plus homers in half a season there. His return would depend a lot on his competition. If fellow-lefty Eric Hosmer is also up for grabs, Duda will bring back a bit less, but a prospect in or near the team&#8217;s top 10 should be within reach. &#8212; Maggie Wiggin (<a href="https://twitter.com/maggie162" target="_blank">@maggie162</a>)</div>
<h3>Jerry Blevins</h3>
<p>You&#8217;ve read above why Reed should be on the move. Much of the same logic applies to dealing Jerry Blevins. Blevins has been very, very good: Here is a list of the eight best left-handed relievers (by FIP) who have thrown at least 60 innings since the start of 2016:</p>
<table width="251">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="123">Name</td>
<td width="64">IP</td>
<td width="64">FIP</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Aroldis Chapman</td>
<td>75.1</td>
<td>1.39</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Andrew Miller</td>
<td>115.2</td>
<td>1.66</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Zach Britton</td>
<td>76</td>
<td>2.05</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jerry Blevins</td>
<td>68</td>
<td>2.95</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Boone Logan</td>
<td>64.2</td>
<td>2.96</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Zach Duke</td>
<td>61</td>
<td>2.97</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Brad Hand</td>
<td>132</td>
<td>3.08</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Felipe Rivero</td>
<td>119</td>
<td>3.09</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Chapman and Miller are signed to eight-figure contracts. Britton received downballot MVP consideration last year, and will almost certainly sign for close to Chapman&#8217;s $86 million over five years when he hits free agency after the season. Then you have Blevins making $5.5 million this year with a 2018 club option for $7 million. That&#8217;s a bargain &#8212; and it justifies the Mets seeking more than just a fifth outfielder or C-minus prospect in return.</p>
<p>Maybe the Mets could flip Blevins and Reed to the Diamondbacks for Ketel Marte. Arizona already has four infielders &#8212; Chris Owings, Jake Lamb, Brandon Drury, and Nick Ahmed &#8212; under team control for next season and beyond, so it&#8217;s worth flipping their backup infielder for a huge bullpen upgrade. For the Mets, Marte, who&#8217;s hit .338/.391/.514 in Reno this year, with a 34:25 strikeout-to-walk ratio, could start at second base when Neil Walker is traded or departs as a free agent, or he could back up Amed Rosario at short. &#8212; Scott D. Simon (<a href="http://twitter.com/scottdsimon" target="_blank">@scottdsimon</a>)</p>
<h3>Rene Rivera</h3>
<p>I know, I know. 33 year old backup backups with a career .268 on base percentage are usually why you trade <em>for</em> an upgrade.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Alexa isn&#39;t doing shit for your catcher situation <a href="https://t.co/Ik6feSJNPt">pic.twitter.com/Ik6feSJNPt</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Jeff Sullivan (@based_ball) <a href="https://twitter.com/based_ball/status/880535186353541122">June 29, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>But Rivera was a 1.5 win player as a backup last year. He’s on pace to duplicate that performance this year. Now let’s take a look at <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/index.php?dispgroup=all&amp;submit=Go" target="_blank">the eight teams most likely to make the playoffs</a>. The Nationals have two below replacement catchers. Arizona regularly uses Jeff Mathis, a much worse version of Rivera. Colorado is using a converted second baseman who ranks poorly behind the plate. Cleveland and Boston are each getting 0.8 wins combined from all their catchers – the same as Rivera has given the Mets as a backup. Let the bidding war begin! After all, what would symbolize the absurdity of 2017 more than good teams outbidding each other for the services of a 33-year-old backup? &#8212; Noah Grand (<a href="https://twitter.com/noahgrand" target="_blank">@noahgrand</a>)</p>
<h3>Jay Bruce</h3>
<p>The Mets&#8217; crowded outfield has been a problem since last offseason, when they picked up the option on Jay Bruce’s contract, then signed Yoenis Cespedes. In an otherwise-lost season, the Bruce signing has paid dividends: he&#8217;s second on the team in bWARP at 1.9. But with his contact expiring at the end of the season, the time to trade Bruce is now.</p>
<p>The Mets&#8217; could try to convince the Yankees to use Bruce as a first baseman and DH in addition to right fielder. While Bruce has played limited innings at first base for the Mets this year, the Yankees need to replace the struggling Chris Carter. He could also spell Aaron Judge and Clint Frazier in the outfield. Although Bruce doesn&#8217;t have veto rights, he should welcome the opportunity to hit tons of homers over the right field wall and a chance at the playoffs.</p>
<p>If a Bruce-to-the-Bronx deal happens, the Mets should not expect to receive any of the Yankees&#8217; top prospects. Instead, the Mets can aim for a pitcher such as Dillon Tate, who the Yankees received in 2016 for Carlos Beltran, or an outfielder such as Billy McKinney, who has struggled recently but could be given more of a chance to play in the Mets&#8217; system. The Mets will get nothing for Bruce once the offseason arrives, so they might as well try to get whatever they can right now. &#8212; Seth Rubin (<a href="http://twitter.com/sethrubin" target="_blank">@sethrubin</a>)</p>
<h3>Neil Walker</h3>
<p>Despite the hamstring injury that has sidelined him for the past few weeks, Walker is having another great year and, like a bunch of other Mets, is set to be a free agent this offseason.</p>
<p>With a .270/.352/.468 slash and nine home runs in just over 200 at-bats, the 31-year-old can definitely bring something to a contender needing a second baseman. The Rockies, whose D.J. LeMahieu is dealing with a groin issue, could be a trade partner should LeMahieu require a DL stint.</p>
<p>The defensive numbers aren&#8217;t great for Walker &#8212; like for the rest of the Mets&#8217; infield &#8212; but his bat would fit into any lineup, as would his reputation as a good teammate. A possible turnoff to a deal is that the acquiring team would need to pick up a prorated portion of his $17.2 million qualifying salary, however. For a contender with a hole at second base, that could be a deal worth making. &#8212; Joshua Burton (<a href="http://twitter.com/Josh_Burton1" target="_blank">@Josh_Burton1</a>)</p>
<h3>Jacob deGrom</h3>
<p>Hear me out for just a second. I know deGrom has been pretty much the only thing the Mets have going for them these days, but there’s an argument to be made that his trade value has never been higher. Since his 8-run blowup in Texas, he’s won each of his last 4 starts with a 0.84 ERA over that span.</p>
<p>The Astros are clearly in the market for an ace, and that need might have just gotten a bit stronger with David Paulino being suspended 80 games for using PEDs. They have a slew of guys working their way back from injury (Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton, Collin McHugh), but could use an ace like deGrom to help take them deep into the postseason.</p>
<p>The Mets would be wise to take advantage of a team in dire need of pitching, while selling high on their own guy. Here’s what the deal could look like:</p>
<p>Astros receive: Jacob DeGrom, Dominic Smith</p>
<p>Mets receive: Alex Bregman, Francis Martes, Daz Cameron</p>
<p>&#8212; Adam Kaufman (<a href="http://twitter.com/adamkaufman315" target="_blank">@adamkaufman315</a>)</p>
<h3>Asdrubal Cabrera</h3>
<p>Putting aside his reported (and then retracted) trade request, it makes sense for the Mets to move on from Asdrubal Cabrera with Amed Rosario waiting in the wings. Cabrera isn&#8217;t the smooth defender he once was, but a recent move to second base could give the twilight years of his career a second life.</p>
<p>The Mets could match up for a Cabrera trade with the Angels, who currently find themselves 1.5 games out of the Wild Card despite receiving little to no production at second base. With a team option for 2018 on the table, Cabrera could fetch a middle-tier prospect from the Angels like OF Trey Montgomery, or RHPs Abel De Los Santos and Elvin Rodriguez. &#8212; Justin Birnbuam (<a href="http://twitter.com/birny53" target="_blank">@birny53</a>)</p>
<h3>Fernando Salas</h3>
<p>Salas is a free agent after the season, so any future value derived from the righty will likely come through trade. Unfortunately for the Mets, he has struggled this season. The walks have been an issue, but some of his peripherals suggest he has pitched better than his ERA. If a team thinks they can reign in his control, they may look to acquire him at a reduced cost. Most contenders will look to reinforce their bullpens before the deadline, but those that have especially struggled in the pen are the Nationals, Twins, and Rangers. Mets fans should not expect any kind of impact talent in a trade, but perhaps Salas could be packaged with one of their more attractive pieces to sweeten the return. &#8212; Zane Moran</p>
<h3>Curtis Granderson</h3>
<p>Traded, along with $3 million, to the Chicago Cubs for RHP Thomas Hatch and RHP Dakota Mekkes</p>
<p>I would like to start off with a disclaimer here that I am not entirely sure the Mets trade Curtis Granderson. I think he is the sort of veteran that the Mets would like to keep around as they sell off other pieces at the deadline and potentially re-sign in the offseason. However, I’m going to operate here under the assumption that the Mets trade him to a contender and give him a chance to contribute to a playoff contender in his age 36 season. Unlike every other rental that could be traded at the deadline, I believe Granderson, and only Granderson, stands a decent chance of re-signing with the Mets this winter even if he spends the last few months of the 2017 season with a different club. With that in mind, I believe one of the strongest fits for Curtis might be the defending World Champion Chicago Cubs.</p>
<p>With the demotion of Kyle Schwarber, struggles of Jason Heyward, and overall underperformance of the Cubs, Chicago could be in the market for a veteran corner outfield bat, specifically a rental. Granderson, a free agent this coming winter, would be an ideal fit for the Cubs and could hit at the top of their order as they look to recover from a dismal first half.</p>
<p>In Thomas Hatch, the Mets would be acquired a polished starting pitching prospect who the Cubs selected in the third round out of Oklahoma State in 2016. The 6’1&#8243; righty boasts a low-mid 90s two seamer and a potential plus slider. While his upside is not too dreamy, he has a decent chance to become a major league starting pitcher and perhaps a middle of the rotation starter if it all works out. Dakota Mekkes, the second piece in the deal, is a reliever who has an ERA south of 1 in his first full professional season. The 2016 10th round pick has been able to achieve this despite a largely mediocre arsenal and lackluster control. His fastball averages out at around 91 mph and is complemented by a high 70s curveball with below average spin and a low 80s changeup with decent sink. However, his 6’7&#8243; frame and deceptive delivery give him a chance to continue to manage his way to success at higher levels of the minors. &#8212; Skyler Kanfer (<a href="https://twitter.com/skylerkanfer" target="_blank">@skylerkanfer</a>)</p>
<p><em>Photo Credit: Brad Penner &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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