Harol Gonzalez, RHP

The trend of my only seeing the best Harol Gonzalez starts continues. I watched him almost toss a perfect game in Kingsport a couple years back, then he spun six hitless frames last summer in Norwich. This time, despite getting knocked around more than I expected so far in the South Atlantic League, he cruised through seven innings, carving up the Lakewood lineup and featuring improved stuff across the board. Gonzalez has filled out some since my wife confused him for a ball boy in the Appalachian League. He’d still generously be referred to as an undersized righty, but the added bulk—and a couple mechanical tweaks—has given him more velocity, and he’s holding his stuff deeper into games than I’ve seen in the past. He touched 93 a few times and sat 89-92, which is a couple ticks higher than the past two seasons. He held the low 90s velo through 100 pitches, and the heater has more plane than I’ve seen in the past. I think it’s possible they’ve tweaked his armslot up to high-three-quarters, but I don’t have any video to check this theory against. Regardless, it’s a much better pitch now and his above-average command is still present.

Gonzalez has a full repertoire of offspeed pitches. The change is still his best secondary offering. He’s thrown a distinct traditional change and split before—and I believe he still does—although they bled together more than they have in past looks. The cambio ranged from 81-84 with the split action showing at the upper range of the velo band. Overall, the pitch shows good sink and fade and he maintains his arm speed well. He added a cutter/slider type thing, which sits 86-87 and features good late tilt, last year in Brooklyn. There is above-average command here too, and it works especially well off his sinking fastball. The curve is tighter that what he’s showed in past years, but it’s still a bit of a big, loopy breaker. He’s usually shown a tighter 12-6 ones in warmups, and this outing broke off a few of those in game action as well. He can keep the tight shape when spotting it for a strike, which is unusual at this level.

So the stuff has improved across the board. Gonzalez’s prior calling cards are still here too: advanced pitchability and the confidence to throw any of his pitchers in any count or game situation. There’s potentially four average or better offerings here now and plus makeup/mound smarts to help the arsenal play up.. Still, it’s a difficult profile: he’s a short, lean righty who has to make it as a starter to have a real major league role, as there isn’t an obvious bullpen fit for this profile. In the past I have pegged him as one of my acquire 3s, but that feels light now.

Desmond Lindsay, OF

There have been some furrowed brows and tweets of concern from #MetsTwitter about Lindsay’s slow start, but he looks like the same dude we ranked #5 preseason for good and for ill. The most important thing for Lindsay is he looks healthy. He moved well in center field and on the basepaths. When I saw him last season in Brooklyn, he was clearly compromised by his hamstring issues so it was difficult to get a feel for the athletic profile, although he *ahem* certainly looked the part. But now he looks like a decent bet to stick in center with more reps, and his jumps and routes compared well to his up-the-middle counterpart in Lakewood, Mickey Moniak. I didn’t get a useable home-to-first dig, but he’s clocked as a plus runner for me before and I have no reason to think that isn’t still the case. At the plate, he has quick hands that generate plus bat speed, although his eventual over-the-fence power may be limited by minimal loft and an all-fields approach. He is a strong kid though, and should yank enough mistakes to find 10+ home run power at his peak due to his average raw pop. Lindsay struggled with the more polished breaking stuff you see at this level, but overall I liked the plate approach. What he needs now more than anything else is pro reps, and I could see him having a decent second half as he continues to adjust to a full-season assignment, even if the final stat line—and don’t scout the statline—is unlikely to look too shiny given his slow start. I don’t see a reason to downgrade him at this point, although he is remains a very high risk prospect.

Luis Carpio, IF

My fondness for Carpio is well-documented. Labrum surgery derailed his 2016 season save for a few August DH appearances. He’s playing mostly second base now, and the arm was going to be stretched at short even pre-surgery. He might be a plus second base glove though, due to his excellent instincts and smooth, quick actions. The move to the right side of the infield puts more pressure on the bat though, and the early returns were a little disappointing. He’s just a bit over a year removed from going under the knife, but while his strong approach and contact skills are still present, the ball doesn’t jump off the bat the same way it did in Kingsport, and the bat speed looked fringy. That may come back, but it may not. There’s less physical projection now too as he’s filled out in the last two seasons. He’s quite young for the level, and I still think he’s the kind of polished player that will do enough at every stop to keep you dreaming on a major league future. But until the line drives get louder, Carpio looks more like a fringe utility guy than the potential regular of two years ago.

Blake Taylor, LHP

The player-to-be-named later in the Ike Davis deal—a trade that feels like it happened three full lifetimes ago for Mets fans—Taylor is still somehow only 21. In the interim, he’s struggled with performance and injuries, lost a year to Tommy John surgery, and finally made it to full season ball four seasons after being drafted. There isn’t much projection left at this point; Taylor has a mature frame with thick legs, but there’s enough stuff here at present to at least be intriguing. He sat 89-91, but he can cut it a bit, and it has some life up in the zone. His command of the pitch has improved, and he had success running it in to righties and splitting some lumber. His upper-70s curve had a nice shape to it, although he would cast it at times. It is a potentially average offering. He still throws a very forgettable cutter/slider thing, and I think I saw two changeups. There’s some deception in his delivery, and everything is very compact and repeatable. You are probably looking at a standard issue two-pitch lefty reliever here, but hey, that’s a major league role too.

Ali Sanchez, C

If Carpio was a little disappointing this week, Sanchez was very disappointing. I have advocated for him since the GCL—and yes, catchers are weird—but if I didn’t have better priors on Sanchez, I’d be tempted to call him a non-prospect. That is a pretty harsh grade for a catcher, as it doesn’t take much to be a viable emergency third catching option. So what’s changed? Despite pedestrian numbers in the complex and downright bad ones in Brooklyn, I’ve been fairly bullish on Sanchez’s bat. The swing I saw this year just had no oomph. He doesn’t use his lower half at all anymore, and while there is still enough feel with the barrel to make contact, it’s mostly bad/weak contact. There’s 20 power now, and the good contact tends to be short line drives up the middle or to the opposite field. The defense behind the plate was fine, but a little indifferent. He didn’t have to make any throws, but the reports are the arm is markedly improved at least. I have no special knowledge here, but Sanchez looked like a player struggling with a back or lower body injury right now. If he isn’t, well that non-prospect possibility looms a little larger.

Short Hops

LHP Jake Simon has room to grow into his wiry frame and an advanced curveball for the level, but there’s a lot of effort in the delivery at present and he was topping out at 90. OF Ricardo Cespedes underwhelmed again. The swing is mostly arms, all slash and chop and there isn’t much power there for how long it gets. He’s probably a corner outfielder long term too. C Brandon Brosher has 70-grade raw power and a plus arm, but the defense is still very rough, and he may not get the power into games enough to survive a move to one of the corners.

Photo credit: Reinhold Matay – USA Today Sports

Short Hops

The other Gonzalez in the rotation, Harol Gonzalez, is a joy to watch, with four pitches he can throw for strikes, and good feel for all three secondaries, the best of which is a slider with late cut. The fastball tops out at 90 though, and he has trouble holding even that velocity later in starts. There is enough pitchability here to beguile A-ball hitters, but it is tough to see a major league arm here without a significant velocity and stamina jump. The mini-Pedro aesthetic is fun though…The Mets tweaked 2016 third-round pick Blake Tiberi’s swing during his first pro summer, and that may have contributed to his short-season struggles. When his swing was right, the Louisville third baseman looked like the best hitter on that Brooklyn team. Expect plenty of Daniel Murphy—pre-Kevin-Long—comps if that happens more often in 2017…Jordan Humphreys is the less-polished version of Merandy Gonzalez, with a tick less velocity and a more inconsistent curve…shortstop Milton Ramos got $750,000 as an overslot third round pick in 2014 on the strength of his shortstop glove, but he struggled at the plate in his first go-round in the South Atlantic League, and may be stuck in a middle infield rotation with Carpio and 2017 fourth rounder Michael Paez…lefty Blake Taylor, who you may remember from the Ike Davis deal, will look to prove he is healthy after a 2015 Tommy John surgery. I liked what I saw in 2014 a bit, and he’s somehow still only 21.
Photo credit: Reinhold Matay – USA Today Sports

1. SS Amed Rosario
2. RHP Robert Gsellman
3. LHP Thomas Szapucki
4. 1B Dominic Smith
5. CF Desmond Lindsay
6. RHP Justin Dunn
7. SS Andres Gimenez
8. OF Brandon Nimmo
9. SS Gavin Cecchini
10. RF Wuilmer Becerra

And now, prospects 11 through 20!

11. Luis Carpio, SS/2B, Age 18 (GCL/Brooklyn)

JP: Life comes at you fast. A year ago, Carpio was a polished, 17-year-old Venezuelan middle infielder with a potential plus hit tool, not all that different from Andres Gimenez, minus a million bucks in the bank or so.

JS: And now he’s a shortstop-in-name-only … probably? Do we have any idea if he can still throw or not?

JP: He spent a few weeks DHing at two short-season levels, getting the Spring Training he never had. So no. He was always gonna be a little stretched at shortstop, the arm was more solid-average than plus. Outlook cloudy, I guess. We’ll know more this Spring, and a heck of a lot more next September. I’ve comped him to Ruben Tejada in the past, which tends to annoy Mets fans, but Tejada was a very useful player his first couple seasons before he had major injuries.

JP: …

JP: Oh, right.

12. Tomas Nido, C, Age 22 (St. Lucie)

JS: So the Mets have always liked Nido’s catching abilities and his bat came alive in 2016. I don’t think any of us actually got any Florida State League looks this year, did we? Internal reports at BP from the rest of the prospect team were pretty good. Catchers are freakin’ weird.

JP: I did not get my usual fix of Lola’s Seafood, Vine and Barley, and divorce lawyer highway billboards unfortunately.

SK: Catchers always seem to emerge late and have unpredictable career paths and Nido may be yet another example of that. Kevin Plawecki was once a catcher with a potential 60 hit tool and Matt Wieters was supposed to be the next Johnny Bench, while two years ago Willson Contreras was left unprotected for the Rule 5 Draft and in the span of one year Carson Kelly went from posting a .263 OBP in the Florida State League to appearing in major league games.  

JP: Hey, I only put a 55 on Plawecki’s hit … uh, and thought he would be a fringy defender. Catchers are freakin’ weird. Nido has a case to be higher, but I’d like to see him do it for another year before I bump him into the top ten after two years of vaguely anonymous looks at him.

JS: And now Plawecki’s the new really awesome defensive catcher/future Tampa Bay Ray that can’t hit a lick. Go figure.

SK: When Nido was drafted in the eighth round in 2012 and signed for $250,000 the scouting report on him indicated plus raw power but a raw defensive toolset that put into question whether or not he would be able to stick behind the plate. For the first few years of his minor league career, his defensive tools became his calling card that allowed him to reach St. Lucie despite not hitting at all until this year. If he is able to combine his developed defensive skills with his newfound hitting ability and the raw power that made him interesting in the draft four years ago, he has chance to be a major league starting catcher and a good one at that. The fact that the bat only showed up for the first time as a pro in 2016 keeps him lower down on the list, but catchers are weird.

13. Gabriel Ynoa, RHP, Age 23 (Las Vegas/New York)

JP: My #brand is looking good for 2017 as Ynoa is in line to be the Mets eighth starter, which means he might be the Mets fifth starter by May 1st. He got the Warthen bump in the majors, sitting 94 in the majors with both his fastballs and the slider tightened up and looked more Warthen-like at times. But Ynoa’s long arm action and low slot give hitters a long look at the ball, and major league hitters sure hit a lot of line drives off him, and may limit how much magic the Mets coaching staff can work here. There’s a major league arm in here, but it’s off the likely role 40, middle relief or fifth starter, variety.

14. Ali Sanchez, C, Age 19 (Brooklyn)

JP: Don’t scout the stat line, kids.

JS: I have no sense if Ali Sanchez can hit. I also increasingly have no sense if we should care whether a catcher hits.

JP: So you were paying attention during Harry Pavlidis and Jonathan Judge’s Saberseminar presentation too? I don’t know if we are any good at evaluating the important non-hitting aspects from our view behind the backstop either. I do think Sanchez will hit. I like the swing. I like the way he uses center and right-center, and he sure looks the part behind the plate, throwing arm excepted. We do have a better idea about how little that matters now compared to the rest of the defensive profile now.

JS: What we do know is that Ali Sanchez gets amazing, incredible marks on the soft factors. There’s the famous quote from our dearly-departed Triple-A skipper about how he’s the best framer in the system. He’s still a few levels from having minor-league framing numbers, but he’s supposed to be really great, and most of the dudes who have supposed to have been really great have been. And again, catchers are freaking weird. Austin Hedges slugged .597 in Triple-A this year! Austin Freaking Hedges!!!

JP: If you are a disappointing prospect looking to get some new helium, go to El Paso, young man.

JS: It’s still .597 slugging for a guy who once looked like he couldn’t hit water if he fell off a boat.

SK: While Sanchez doesn’t project as much of a power hitter, his defensive ability could allow to climb up the minor league ranks until he starts to hit more, like Tomas Nido. And Sanchez has the advantage of being an even better defender than Nido and anyone else in the organization. If he can find a way to hit like Yadier Molina did, he can become, well, a slightly lesser version of Yadier Molina.

JP: And if I can find a way to drink like Jason Parks, I can become, well, a slightly lesser version of Jason Parks.

JS: Congratulations on your 2021 World Series ring, Jeffrey.

JP: Sanchez could be much higher on this list a year from now. He could also be a third catcher for the Binghamton Rumble Ponies six years from now. Catchers are freakin’ weird.

SK: Remember Francisco Peña?

JP: Congratulations on your 2015 World Series ring, Francisco Peña.

15. Marcos Molina, RHP, Age 21 (DNP)

JS: It’s a hell of an arm. He’s had basically two lost years, I don’t think any of the three of us thinks he can start, and he’s ahead of two actual major-league contributors. It’s a hell of arm.

JP: The grainy YouTube videos coming out of fall ball suggest that his wonky mechanics haven’t changed significantly, but the stuff has come back well a year out from his surgery. This is a placeholder ranking that probably is wrong in one direction or the other (aren’t they all), because either the stuff comes all the way back and he stays healthy–and he’s a top 10 prospect in the system–or he’s a reliever who’s going to start 2017 in the Florida State League.

SK: If you think Luis Severino is all upper body, then you should look at Marcos Molina’s delivery.

16. Josh Smoker, LHP, Age 27, (Las Vegas/New York)

JS: Why in Seaver’s good name is Smoker still eligible for this list? He should’ve been up in August or September 2015, let alone waiting a full year. He’s a good MLB lefty reliever now—probably more a setup guy than a straight LOOGY—and he’ll never be anything more because this is what he is. But that is pretty cool for a dude signed off an independent league tryout.

JP: What he is: A fastball/split lefty with a 96 mph fastball that was somehow cast as a LOOGy throwing a below-average slider a lot because Terry Collins. I do worry if gopheritis will continue to haunt him a bit, the fastball lacks wiggle, but he’s providing major league value now.

SK: A lefty that can throw in the mid-high 90s. Along with Addison Reed and Hansel Robles, Smoker remains probably one of only three locks to make the Mets opening day bullpen.

17. T.J. Rivera, IF, Age 27, (Las Vegas/New York)

JP: Pass.

SK: He’s from the Bronx.

JS: It might be a 60 hit tool. And the rest of the profile might not be enough to carry it. But 60 hit guys who can sort of stand at many positions do have roles as good utility players. He could be a good utility player. By the meritocracy version of the game, he probably does deserve a chance to figure out if there’s more there.

JP: He also had a top-five swinging strike rate on the Mets in 2016 and that checks out with my eye test, where he looked overmatched by better velocity and better sliders. He’s below-average defensively even at second. He could hit an empty .250 and be on a Jet Blue to McCarran by 5/1. But 3’s play in the majors too.  

SK: TJ Rivera has absolutely no secondary tools. His defense, arm, power, and run tools are not major-league caliber and he can’t walk either. But the hit tool is so good that he’s going to stick as a major league player for a while.

18. Luis Guillorme, SS, Age 21 (St. Lucie)

JP: We’re at the part of the list where we are stretching for guys with major league futures. If you want to have a major league future as the 18th best prospect in a system, it helps to do one thing really well. It especially helps if that one thing is “play shortstop.” Guillorme fits the bill. This is the converse of the Rivera profile, if you are a 60 shortstop glove (and Guillorme might be a 70), it’s usually enough.

JS: Legitimately the best defensive infielder in the organization. Some feel for hitting. No power. Can we just cut and paste one of your old Wilfredo Tovar reports?

SK: If this was the 1970s, he’d be penciled in as a major league starting shortstop for the next decade.

JP: He’d be the best shortstop in the league in the 1870s, even had the mustache for a while. I’ll always root for him, insomuch as I “root” for prospects anymore. He’s an 80 makeup, baseball rat that gets absolutely every inch out of his limited physical tools. I guess that means I should be higher on Rivera, but aesthetics matter here too. And good shortstop defense is high art.

JS: He’s really cool and he’s got a shot because it doesn’t take much for this profile to bump into major-league regulardom.

19. Peter Alonso, 1B, Age 21 (Brooklyn)

JP: I get it. I really do. But this org has been putting overqualified college dudes in Brooklyn for as long as there has been a Brooklyn, and they always hit a ton.

JS: The competition Peter Alonso faced in the New York-Penn League was arguably worse than the competition he faced in the SEC. The SEC is good college baseball. The Penn League has some dudes throwing 83 that can’t locate. You would expect a high-round SEC pick to destroy the Penn League, and he did. It doesn’t mean much.

SK: Raw power is fun. Did you see that 113 mph exit velocity in the NY Penn League?

JP: I’ll just quote what I wrote about him earlier this Summer:

“Alonso’s stance is wide open and he stands well off the plate. He uses a medium leg lift to close, but he starts the whole process early and lets the leg hang a bit before getting it down. The timing here is inconsistent and often leaves his upper half trying to catch up. The swing itself has some length to the ball, the bat speed doesn’t jump out at you, and Alonso struggles with balls below his waist and spin generally. It’s a long-and-strong power profile, and those tend to struggle the first time they see higher-quality stuff. Even short-season arms have occasionally been able to exploit the holes (though they have many more times given him balls up in the zone he can both catch up to and get extended on).“

Ask me again in Double-A. First base profiles are tough.

SK: I like first basemen with plus power profiles over first basemen who are reliant on any other tool.

20. Merandy Gonzalez, RHP, Age 20 (Brooklyn)

JP: Merandy Gonzalez is the kind of polished Latin pitcher the Mets like to put in the Brooklyn rotation. He has a little more stuff than the median Cyclones arm though. His fastball regularly hits 95. He can elevate it to get Ks and command it down to both sides of the plate. The curve flashes and he can spot or bury it. It’s inconsistent and he’ll slow his arm and guide it in when it’s coming out of his hand in the 70s. He doesn’t have an ideal starter’s frame and the change is crude. There’s a major league arm in here, albeit one best-suited to the pen. Not bad for No. 20.

SK: What round of the draft would Merandy Gonzalez be projected to go in as a 21-year-old next year?

JP: Is he just Dakota Hudson minus four inches? For all you kids out there, there’s a reason I don’t do amateur stuff.

JS: I mean, we’re listing him a spot after a mid-second round pick whose stock hasn’t changed much and signed for around slot, so mid-second round sounds just about right. And that’s not far off from Dakota Hudson, really.

Photo Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Last time I saw Harol Gonzalez pitch, he went 25 up, 25 down for Kingsport. This time he went 6.3 without allowing a hit. Maybe it’s me. The stuff didn’t look as sharp this summer though. He’s filled out a bit and looks closer to his listed 6’0″, 160. It’s still a very slender frame with narrow shoulders and thin legs. He could probably carry 20 more pounds and that might help with his stamina in games, but I don’t really see him adding that much to his frame at this point. The mechanics are still the same, a short leg lift, short stride, turns his front side to create some torque and deception. He’s very upright when he lands, and it’s an upper-body-heavy delivery. It reminds me a bit of Marcos Molina at times, but it’s not as vstiff and violent an arm action. He’s been able to repeat it well in the past, though he struggled with his command of all five pitches in this outing.

The fastball still sits in the upper 80s early on in his starts, which he can sink and run armside from his three-quarters slot. At his best he can work all four quadrants of the zone and elevate with late life, but his command of the fastball was shaky in this outing, and he was nibbling even in hitter’s counts. I had hoped if he added some strength he might sit in the low 90s, but it just hasn’t happened for him so far, and at 21, you wonder if it ever will.

Last year, Gonzalez featured a slurvy breaking ball. It was effective against Appy League batters and it would flash as a tighter slider at times. This year he is throwing both a slider and a slower curve. The slider was a mess early, but he snapped off some nice ones later in the outing. It’s not a true downer from that armslot, but it will show good gloveside tilt at times and is a potentially average offering with more consistency. The slow curve is still a work in progress. He would look like a good 11-5 downer in warm-ups, but when he tried to throw it in games it tended to flatten out and show early in game action. It seems like a pitch he is still figuring out how to throw, but there is some potential there, and he might need both breaking balls to give hitters some different looks given the overall profile.

The change-up is the party piece here. Gonzalez actually throws two of them. A fader at 79-81, and a split-change in the low 80s. He struggled to command it throughout the start and with the limited velo separation, he didn’t miss many bats as you’d think at this level, although he got some weak groundouts on the sinking version. Another potentially average major league offering, maybe a bit more for the split if you see it on a better day.

This is a tough profile. You don’t really see the stuff playing up in short bursts, and the package is more than the sum of its parts due to his ability to throw five different pitches in any count. He is more a pitchability than stuff guy, but the stuff just isn’t quite good enough to see a major league arm without a velocity bump that I am not confident is coming. He’s been passed as a prospect by his fellow Gonzalez at this point.

Ali Sanchez, C

Sanchez was No. 10 on our preseason Mets Prospect List and nothing I saw last week makes me regret that somewhat ambitious ranking. He’s been banged up early in the NYPL season, and a foul tip off of his throwing hand earlier in the week limited him to designated hitting in this look. I saw him catch in the complex last year, and while I will want an updated look later in the summer once he is healthy, I am confident in his ability to catch long term despite a below-average throwing arm. Sanchez had his right hand and wrist taped, but it did not appear to negatively affect him at the plate. I love his swing. I don’t know how much home run power he eventually develops, as the swing plane is pretty flat and he is already built like, well, a catcher, but I’m confident he will hit. The swing is simple, he is very good at hitting the ball where it is, working up-the-middle and opposite field especially well. And Sanchez gets more carry on the ball in games than you would think given the swing; for example, he flicked a double over the head of the right fielder in this look. Catcher development is rarely linear, and Sanchez is a long way away from having an impact in the majors, but despite the Mets system being deeper than it was 12 months ago, he is still easily a top-10 prospect for me.

Colby Woodmansee, SS

The Mets fifth-round pick out of Arizona State is a polished college bat that is already too good for the Penn League. All series he made a lot of hard contact off Connecticut arms, but consider that he was seeing a lot of mid-to-high-80s fastballs, and overall a level of pitching not that much better than the Pac-12. He came out of ASU with some good reports on his pop, and he is stronger than you would think, given his lean, almost wiry frame, but I don’t know how much over-the-fence power you’ll see with him swinging wood now.

The same amateur reports were mixed on his defensive future. He’s polished there too, good hands and actions. He’s a below-average runner, and I just didn’t see the first step quickness or overall range to stick at shortstop long term. This is the Mets, mind you, so he will probably play there for a while, but the athletic tools are just a bit short in all aspects. The arm is solid-average, and he could handle either second or third, but that will put pressure on the bat. He should move quickly through A-ball (and should really be in full-season ball right now, but Brooklyn must win), and we’ll have a better idea of what he is when he sees Double-A arms.

Blake Tiberi, 3B

The Mets scheduled Tiberi’s debut for the day after the Cyclones left town. These are the things that happen to the itinerant prospect writer. I did get to see him in a couple batting practice sessions, and for the most part he looked like a guy that had played a full baseball season already. He appeared a bit gassed, the timing was off, and he was popping balls into the cage. But every third swing or so he looked like the best hitter on the field. The second day of BP he got into a bit better rhythm. He keeps his hands low when he loads, driving through the swing with his front shoulder and hip. There is plenty of bat speed here and a nice sound when he squares the ball. It’s a line drive swing without much in the way of loft, so you do wonder about the power ceiling. There isn’t much projection left here either, Tiberi has filled out and has an almost square frame. My podcast co-host has been fishing for Daniel Murphy comps, but it’s a very different body and swing, even if I get the hit-over-power,  college-third-baseman resemblance Anyway, I don’t want to make grand pronouncements off a couple BP sessions, but what I saw from the Mets third-round pick, I liked.

Bryce Beeler, RHP

Beeler, the Mets 19th-round pick in 2014, is back on the field after missing all of last season due to Tommy John surgery. He got promoted to Columbia Monday, and he is well-equipped to have success at that level. He pitches with an easy tempo, although there is some late torque and effort in the delivery that makes it difficult for him to spot the fastball arm side. He’s a four-pitch reliever, featuring a fastball an upper 80s fastball that touched 91, a slider with short, late downer action (80-82), a slurvy curveball (75-79), and a decent change-up (79-82). Beeler mixes his pitches well, and while nothing here projects as above-average. He works out of the stretch now, but  if the Mets wanted to try him as a starter once he gets more post-TJ innings under his belt, I think he would have some success in A-ball. He reminds me a bit of Logan Verrett, but the fastball and slider aren’t quite as good as Verrett’s, so the OFP here isn’t as good either.

Nick Sergakis, IF

Sergakis was the Mets 23rd-round pick in this year’s draft. He is a 23-year old senior sign. In a mild upset, his listed height and weight of 5’8” and 175 pounds actually looked close to accurate. He played third base in college and second base in the two games I saw him. He likely gets displaced from regular playing time once the Mets are able to sign Michael Paez, their fourth round pick. But man, is Sergakis a fun little player. He has surprising pop. He put on the best show in batting practice of any of the Cyclones, and Darryl Knight and Brandon Brosher are no slouches in the raw power department. If you throw him something above the waist, he will hit it hard.

Otherwise the profile plays about how you would expect based on the first three sentences of this blurb. If you put his name up for an internet vote, Grindy McGrinderson would be the runaway winner. He got plunked twice, aggressively tagged up from second on a fly to left, and then scored on a shorter fly to left. He was sub-4 on a push bunt for a base hit. He’ll do enough of the little things, and hit enough dingers that I will look up in three years and he will be on somebody’s Triple-A roster without my writing anything else about him in the interim.

Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilis- USA Today Sports

The Top 10

1. Steven Matz, LHP

Current Assignment: New York Mets

2016 to date: 60.1 IP, 2.39 ERA, 25% K, 5.3% BB, 54 H, 4 HR

Well this has gone well.

Before our national list came out, I argued hard for Matz over Julio Urias; I also think there was an case for Matz as the best pitching prospect in baseball over even Giolito. Being able to do it in the majors matters, and Matz had already shown flashes of that. He has taken another step forward this season–and my No. 2 starter projection on him might even end up low–although the command needs to get more consistent and he still has his own durability questions to answer. 30 starts and 180 major league innings this year will go a long way towards silencing the last concerns about the Mets southpaw.

Graduated (and pretty pretty good)

2. Amed Rosario, SS

Current Assignment: Advanced-A St. Lucie

2016 to date: 262 PA, .307/.359/.445, 7.6% BB, 13% K

Rosario is repeating the Florida State League, but is still one of the youngest players in the Sunshine State. On the preseason list I noted that his defensive tools were more advanced than his offensive ones, but the bat has begun to catch up in a big way. He’ll be in Binghamton in the second half, where I will get to see him live for the first time since 2014, but we already have big internal reports on him, and I had a scout sing his praises to me recently as well. The mothership starts our midseason top 50 list discussion soon, and Rosario will be in the conversation for the top half.

Stock Up

3. Luis Carpio, SS/2B

Current Assignment: Minor League Disabled List

Carpio was the most aggressive ranking on this list. I definitely stand by it, and I think he’s still a top-10 prospect in the system even after shoulder surgery that will keep him out for the whole year. The issue is with his throwing arm which may accelerate a move to the right side of the infield, but we won’t know that (or anything else) until he gets back on the field on the field in 2017.

Stock Down

4. Gavin Cecchini, SS 

Current Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas

2016 to date: 177 PA, .314/.375/.409, 9% BB, 12.4% K

All Cecchini has done for the past season-and-a-half is hit. Well, he’s hit enough to be a valuable up-the-middle bat in the majors at least. He tinkered with a large leg kick in A-ball, and while that did give him a little more pop into the gaps, it left him vulnerable to offspeed. When I saw him the next year in Binghamton, he was using a simple toe tap to close from a slightly open stance and a flatter overall swing plane. This has improved his contact ability, but sapped whatever gap power he might have had. Cecchini is mostly a singles hitter nowadays, so I do wonder if major league arms will challenge him more once the book gets out, cutting into his on-base numbers despite his strong strike zone control.

The defense was always supposed to be the sure thing for Cecchini. He was drafted as an advanced shortstop glove, and although no pundits promised Gold Gloves, he was seen as about a sure thing to stick at short as you will find coming out of high school. But as a pro, Cecchini has struggled with the responsibilities on the left side of the infield. The arm is short for the position, and can be scattershot at times, especially when he has to reach back for more. The range is a step short as well, and he struggles with his actions at faster game speeds. He’s played every one of his professional games at shortstop, but it is hard to see him being more than a once-a-week guy there in the majors. At second base, there probably isn’t enough offense to be a starter unless he hits .280. But there is a major league role to be found when you can hit a bit and play up-the-middle.

Stock Holding

5. Dominic Smith, 1B

Current Assignment: Double-A Binghamton

2016 to date: 241 PA, .273/.324/.386, 7.1% BB, 15.8% K

Of course you should never scout the stat line.

But sometimes there are reasons for the stat line.

Stock Down

6. Brandon Nimmo, OF 

Current Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas

2016 to date: 222 PA, .325/.403/.521, 11.3% BB, 16.7% K

Nimmo’s hot May and June has piqued Mets fans interest again, but there doesn’t appear to be a ton of real change here (unless you buy into the newest offseason swing/stance tweak). In fact, his profile really hasn’t changed in five years. Nimmo’s the Casey Stengel quip come to life; in five years he’s actualized his chance to be 23. That might sound pessimistic, but while he hasn’t figured out how to hit lefties, or added as much power as projected, Nimmo has several skills that will serve him well in the majors. He won’t kill you in centerfield, and he can get on-base and hit for average power against righties. He isn’t Jose Fernandez, and he isn’t left-handed Hunter Pence, a common comp during his first couple pro seasons, but Nimmo is potentially a useful long-side platoon bat.

I do think the risk here does get understated at times though. His overly passive approach might fall apart against major league pitching, but his first half in Vegas is a step in the right direction. Like Cecchini, Nimmo may end up a bit of a disappointment as a high first-round pick, but both should have significant major league careers.

Stock Holding

7. Desmond Lindsay, OF

Current Assignment: Extended Spring Training

I had hoped the Mets might push Lindsay to Columbia this year. It would have been an extremely aggressive assignment given the background (learning a new position, missed most of his senior season), but he impressed me in a brief cameo for Brooklyn at the end of last summer. A minor leg injury and a couple hit-by-pitches in minor league camp put the kibosh on that though. Lindsay will now head back to Coney Island, surrounded by a much, much better crop of prospects than he was last year.

Stock Holding

8. Wuilmer Becerra, OF

Current Assignment: High-A St. Lucie

2016 to date: 167 PA, .338/.370/.409, 4.2% BB, 15.6% K

Man, heck if I know.

For most of his pro career, Becerra looked like he was built right to factory specs for “right field profile:” A tall Venezuelan with a projectable body, he checked off every box: plus speed, arm, and pop. He was raw at the plate, but had a plan and a swing by the time he got to Savannah and you could easily see him growing into an everyday bat in a corner. Then he went to St. Lucie and hit like Tony Gwynn for two months.

Now it does go back further than that. The Savannah staff made some changes to his stance in 2015, and in the second half there he hit .291/.348/.355. Savannah’s home park was brutally tough on power, but that makes just 22 extra-base hits in his last 94 games and only one home run. If you want to hand wave some of the power outage, he has dealt with shoulder and back issues in 2016. I also got a positive scout quote on him recently, but there is a reason we don’t make Tony Gwynn comps.

Stock the heck if I know

9. Robert Gsellman, RHP

Current Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas

2016 to date: 69.1 IP, 17% K, 5.9% BB, 67 H, 2 HR

Gsellman added a slider this spring in major league camp, and that, along with a small bump in velocity, boosted his K-rate from 12.7% in 2015 to 17% so far in this year’s campaign. That’s still nothing to write home about, but the slider would flash plus in my April look, and the organization has done a very good job developing this type of arm recently. The future projection here hasn’t moved all that much, but he’s another step closer to the majors after his recent promotion to Vegas–although his first start didn’t go well … welcome to the PCL!–and a better bet to reach that OFP now.

Stock Up

10. Ali Sanchez, C

Current Assignment: Extended Spring Training

No real surprise here. Sanchez is a long, long way away, between being a catcher and having just come stateside to the complex last year. He could start at either Kingsport or Brooklyn, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Mets push him to the New York-Penn League to get some experience catching their new crop of arms.

Stock Holding

The five who were just interesting

Matt Reynolds, IF

Current Assignment: New York Mets

Reynolds was listed here in the winter due to the likelihood he would be able to help out the 2016 team. And he’s bounced back and forth between Vegas and Flushing this year, functioning as the 25th man and extra infield glove. He’s never hit all that much in Vegas, considering that it is Vegas, so he has fallen behind guys like Travis Taijeron, Ty Kelly, and TJ Rivera in #MetsTwitter’s ever-changing #FREE________ hierarchy. But he is younger and a better defender than those three, and is likely to have a major league job until the Mets trade for Juan Uribe in six weeks.

Raphael Ramirez, OF

Current Assignment: Extended Spring Training

Ramirez will be flanking Desmond Lindsay in Brooklyn with either Arnaldo Berrios or the next of our interesting five.

Ricardo Cespedes, OF

Current Assignment: Extended Spring Training

I think Cespedes heads to Kingsport, where it will be easier to get him centerfield reps (although I don’t see him sticking up the middle long-term). The Mets could get aggressive though and assign him to Brooklyn and Lindsay to Savannah. A lot of these decisions down to how guys look in extended Spring Training.

Gabriel Ynoa, RHP

Current Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas 51s

Ynoa’s profile is exactly the type that you’d expect to get hammered in Vegas. He’s a strike-thrower with a 55 fastball and nothing else you would expect to miss bats or even barrels. And through 12 starts in 2016, Ynoa has again only struck out 12 percent of the batters he’s faced, and has seen his walk rate creep up . Yet somehow he has bobbed and weaved his way to a sub-3.00 ERA. Despite his success so far, Ynoa’s profile hasn’t really changed. He offers a four-pitch mix, with an average change and two below-average breakers. We are well-past the point of dreaming on a major league slider or curve here, but with a lower arm slot and a low-impact delivery, it’s possible you could develop a Robles-like reliever. For now, Ynoa will continue to start as long as the smoke and mirrors act holds up. And hey, it’s beats getting shelled, however you do it.

Marcos Molina, RHP

Current Assignment: Minor League Disabled List

Molina is still a few months away from throwing off a mound after Tommy John surgery late last summer.

Five more who are interesting … now

As Toby Hyde noted when we chatted with him in Episode 5 of For All You Kids Out There, one of the notable surprises for the Mets affiliates in the first half has been … the lack of surprises. But here’s five more names of note for the second half of the minor league season:

Andrew Church, RHP

Current Assignment: High-A St. Lucie Mets

The Mets second round pick in 2013 was a bit of a head-scratcher at the time. No one had really seen him pitch much in high school.  Coming into 2016, Church had thrown just 132 innings across three season, after losing parts of the last two seasons to injuries. And all of the three were spent in short-season ball. He popped back up a few weeks ago in Columbia, sitting 90-95 and throwing a slider. After two dominant starts in the South Atlantic League, he was bumped up to St. Lucie. He is still very much an unknown quantity, but in a pitching-depleted system, a healthy Church certainly qualifies as interesting.

Chris Flexen, RHP

Current Assignment: High-A St. Lucie Mets

Flexen spent much of 2015 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, but once he got back on the field he showed plus fastball velocity and a developing curve. He could have easily made the interesting list before the season and had an argument for third-best pitching prospect in the system (not that it was a high bar). His 2016 has been uneven, but he has put together a string of strong starts recently and is still only 21. His long-term future is likely in the bullpen, given the fringy command and lack of a third pitch, but a strong second half in the Florida State League could get him top 10 consideration for 2017.

Kevin McGowan, RHP

Current Assignment: Double-A Binghamton Mets

When I saw Kevin McGowan in Brooklyn in 2013, he was a tall drink of water that could touch 95 and flashed a decent curve. After 190 innings of mediocre work as a starter in St. Lucie across 2014-15, the Mets converted McGowan to relief this season and he’s proceeded to strike out 27 percent of the batters he has faced, and walked just 3 percent. That’ll play. McGowan is still 92-95, but now uses a slider as his primary secondary. If he can keep missing bats in the upper minors, he has a real shot to be the first Franklin Pierce alum to play in the majors.

David Thompson, 3B

Current Assignment: Single-A Columbia Fireflies

I generally give guys coming straight from a long college season into the Penn League a bit of a mulligan. It’s their first time playing deep into the summer, and they are learning the specific rigors of pro baseball on the fly. That said, Thompson looked as bad as any first-or-second-day Mets college draftee I have seen on Coney Island. The bat looked slow, and he was overmatched by short-season offspeed stuff.

After a full offseason and a spring in the complex, Thompson has come out blazing in Columbia, hitting .296/.352/.487. The over-the-fence power that he showed in college hasn’t shown up in the pros yet, but 20 doubles in 50 games is a good sign. Thompson is a first baseman long term given his range and shoulder issues, and this may very well be just another example of a polished college guy whacking the Sally league, but it beats writing about another future reliever.

Ivan Wilson, OF 

Current Assignment: Single-A Columbia Fireflies

Wilson has long been a personal concern. When I saw him in Kingsport in 2014 he showed off a toolset that was the best in the system. Easy plus run and arm, you could throw a 70 on the raw if you were so inclined, and he looked like he’d be a good centerfielder down the line. If he could even hit a little, that would be a slam dunk top five prospect in the system, any system.

Just one small problem: he couldn’t hit.

I sat on him for three games that summer and he hit three absolute bombs, but he struggled mightily to pick up spin even at that level, striking out even 47 percent of the time in the Appalachian League. 2015 was marred by injuries, and I was a little surprised to see him pop up in Columbia this year. He’s gotten the K-rate down to 33 percent (which isn’t good, but better than I expected) and the tools are still in there. There still may not even be a Double-A player in here, but if you want a guy to dream on, Wilson’s given you a glimmer.

***

So with Matz’s graduation, and the lack of breakout guys, the Mets system is a bit down from where it was even in April. But four top 100 picks in this year’s draft should help replenish the thin system, and make the Brooklyn Cyclones a must-follow over the rest of the summer.

Photo Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

While his replacement Kevin Plawecki was initially disappointing offensively, after Collins applied some public pressure and Plawecki took to working with hitting coach Kevin Long, he’s seen some dramatic improvement. He hit two doubles and a home run in the five games immediately after Collins’s statement, and upped his overall contact, finally managing to bring his 2016 average out of the .100s. But despite Plawecki’s uptick, there’s no arguing that the Mets could benefit from a backstop with some hitting power. The problem is there’s really little to be found, and it’s been a problem for many teams of late. So I figured I I’d peek in at the minors to invest my hopes in the up-and-coming set—hey, a girl can dream.

Rene Rivera

Okay, he’s been an official Met for a few weeks now after being called up from Las Vegas to serve as backup catcher, but here’s a progress report: The 32-year-old is no stranger to the majors, but he remains a back-up catcher mainly due to his lack of offensive staying power. Since his callup he hit a home run against the Braves, knocking in Flores for a two-point lead, but overall he’s batting a lackluster .167/.375/.417 with the Mets thus far (albeit from a small sample size of 16 plate appearances). His time with the Padres in 2013-14 showed the most offensive consistency—Rivera averaged in the .250s and hit 11 home runs in 2014, so I’m holding out hope for his bat. Defensively, Rivera floats around average in most advanced catching metrics, but his biggest strength is undoubtedly his quick defensive arm; he has a career caught stealing percentage of 38 percent, besting both d’artaud’s 23 percent and Plawecki’s 28 percent.

Johnny Monell (Las Vegas 51s, Triple-A)

Bronx-native Monell, age 30, has a few major league games under his belt, too—he played for the Giants in 2013, and was called up by the Mets last year, where he batted .167/.231/.208 in 27 games. Both his 2016 season in Las Vegas (.243/.323/.351 so far) and his minor league career stats (.269/.350/.446) are significantly better, though.  If he could shake off the Citi Field stage fright, he has the potential to be a valuable backup.

Xorge Carrillo (Binghamton Mets, Double-A)

The 27-year-old was the Mexican Pacific League Rookie of the Year in 2014, and has bat consistently above .250 during his time in the minors. He hit 13 home runs in 2015, and is currently batting .250/.296/.434 with two home runs in 20 games for Binghamton, with a 2016 caught stealing percentage of 31.

Tomas Nido (St. Lucie Mets, High-A)

When I saw the catcher / DH designation next to Nido’s name, I felt my heart go pitter-Piazza-patter. Could it be—a strong offensive catcher? All signs point to yes; the 22-year-old is currently hitting .305/.330/.429 for St. Lucie, with a CS at 45 percent. The Mets chose Nido in the eighth round of the 2012 draft, and offered him a bonus to turn down college at Florida State to play for Kingsport. Last year he was named 2015’s South Atlantic League Mid-Season All-Star.

Ali Sanchez (Kingsport Mets, Rookie), Freshly 19, Sanchez is still a baby—he signed with the Mets in 2013 as a No. 25 international prospect when he was sixteen years old—but he’s another catcher / DH who’s shown continued promise. At 17 he hit .303/.406/.394 with an .800 OPS in his 50 games in the Dominican Foreign League. He spent 2015 with the Gulf Coast League before moving to the Kingsport Mets, and in his 49 games across two teams (the Gulf Coast League season has approximately 59 games; the Appalachian league’s runs 68) Sanchez continued to perform above average amongst catchers offensively, hitting .272/.330/.306. As an interesting bonus, Sanchez, who bats right, fares considerably better against lefties, averaging .300 against southpaws versus .262 against right-handed pitchers.

Defensively Sanchez also shows skill; of the 72 runners who’ve attempted stolen bases on his watch Sanchez has caught 37 of them, for an impressive CS of 51 percent. (In the majors, Salvador Perez leads current MLB catchers with a 2016 CS percentage of 58.3, Buster Posey behind him at 50 percent.) Sanchez will start the season with in Kingsport next month, but given the dearth of solid catchers out there, it’d be unsurprising to see him in Brooklyn later this year.

Photo Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports