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		<title>What If?: Alex Rodriguez Signs With The Mets After 2000</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/11/what-if-alex-rodriguez-signs-with-the-mets-after-2000/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 11 Mar 2017 11:00:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bryan Kalbrosky]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Alternate History]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[A-Rod]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Rodriguez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[alternate history]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=3293</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[After the 2000 season, Alex Rodriguez signed a 10-year, $252 million deal with the Texas Rangers. But during a recent taping of Undeniable with Joe Buck, Rodriguez said that he would have taken half the money to play for the New York Mets after the 2000 World Series. The quote is new, but the sentiment of [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>After the 2000 season, Alex Rodriguez signed a 10-year, $252 million deal with the Texas Rangers. But during a recent taping of <em>Undeniable</em> with Joe Buck, Rodriguez said that he would have taken half the money to play for the New York Mets after the 2000 World Series.</p>
<p>The quote is new, but the sentiment of wanting to play in New York is not a new idea from A-Rod. Here’s what <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/a-rod-regrets-no-mets-doesn-mistake-yankees-article-1.286061" target="_blank">he told John Harper of the <em>New York Daily News</em> in 2008</a> about his desire to play for the Mets for the 2001 season:</p>
<p>“I went for the contract when my true desire was to go play for the Mets … [I didn’t want to be] taken down a road where I&#8217;m like, &#8216;Oh, my God, where am I? Oh, $400 million to play in some place I hate? Great, I&#8217;ll blow my —- head off.'&#8221;</p>
<p>Later in the interview, he explained one of the reasons he regretted his decision is that his daughter missed her bedroom and her toys in New York. In fact, A-Rod <a href="http://nypost.com/2016/01/26/a-rod-invokes-religion-while-praising-mets-young-guns/" target="_blank">said he grew up watching the 1986 Mets</a>. He also <a href="http://www.eonline.com/news/834895/jennifer-lopez-and-alex-rodriguez-met-right-in-front-of-marc-anthony-ain-t-it-funny" target="_blank">reportedly met Jennifer Lopez</a>, who he&#8217;s currently dating, at a Mets game.</p>
<p>Though his stats in Texas weren&#8217;t exactly what they would&#8217;ve been in Queens, it’s easy to imagine what the Mets would have looked like with the star shortstop. Rodriguez had 52 home runs in 2001 and posted 7.6 WARP. He and Mike Piazza would have been the best offensive tandem in baseball, both in the top 10 for WARP. Meanwhile, Mets shortstop Rey Ordonez had a 1.2 WARP. That’s an approximate six wins extra for New York &#8230; who finished six wins behind the Atlanta Braves in the division.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.espn.com/new-york/mlb/columns/story?id=6567799&amp;columnist=oconnor_ian" target="_blank">Here’s what former Mets executive Jim Duquette said of the situation at the time</a> : “If we sign Alex that championship window would have stayed open a lot longer for us, and we might not go down the Mo Vaughn road or the [Roberto] Alomar road or the [Jeromy] Burnitz road.”</p>
<p>Instead, the Mets changed up their roster the next season, lost Robin Ventura, and gained the tandem of Roberto Alomar and Jeromy Burnitz. That alone was a net negative; Alomar had -0.3 WARP–he had 6.9 in 2001 before he joined the Mets–and Burnitz had -0.7 WARP. Mets manager Bobby Valentine moved Edgardo Alfonzo (5.0 WARP) from second base to third base to replace Ventura with Alomar now at second. Ordonez had a 1.1 WARP at shortstop.</p>
<p>Away from the Mets in Arlington, A-Rod was top-five in baseball with 7.5 WARP and Ventura had 4.4 WARP with the Yankees. Assuming they would had kept their infield intact with Rodriguez in the mix, they would have had a combined 16.9 WARP from A-Rod, Ventura and Alfonzo. Instead, they had 5.8 WARP from Ordonez, Alfonzo and Alomar; that equates to approximately 11 more wins. The Mets, of course, finished last in the NL East.</p>
<p>They also finished last in 2003. Phillips was fired as general manager. The Rangers <em>also </em>finished in last place–but for three straight seasons–and Rodriguez wanted to leave. Soon, Rodriguez was on the Yankees for 2004 and the Mets debuted Jose Reyes and David Wright.</p>
<p>During a radio interview in 2016, former Mets general manager Steve Phillips <a href="http://nypost.com/2007/11/04/24-and-1-indeed/" target="_blank">offered more details on why it never worked out to sign Rodriguez</a>. He said that it “would have been historic” to pair Rodriguez with Piazza, especially after the Mets had just lost to the Yankees in the World Series. But he knows there were challenges to add Rodriguez, who he called “the best player” he had ever seen.</p>
<p>“We weren’t going to pay $25 million a year, I can tell you that. My sense from Mets ownership is we weren’t in that ballpark, but I wonder if we had gone back and said this is what we’re willing to do, are you willing to do it, whether Alex would’ve been in a position to change the conversation.”</p>
<p>If what Rodriguez told Buck has validity, then perhaps the Mets blew it. But Phillips added that Boras and Rodriguez had requested an office space at the stadium “for marketing purposes” as well as lots of billboards around the city. Boras also requested four full-time employees on the media relations to handle requests for A-Rod. A private plane was also mentioned.</p>
<p>During that offseason, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2000/11/14/sports/baseball-mets-pull-out-of-the-rodriguez-sweepstakes.html" target="_blank">Phillips said such a demand would &#8220;destroy the fabric of the team”</a> saying: &#8221;I have serious reservations that a structure in which you have a 24-plus-one-man roster can really work. In fact, I don&#8217;t think it can work.&#8221;</p>
<p>Phillips said that building a baseball team is about 25 players and when that’s compromised, it becomes difficult to win. Eventually, he lost his job with the Mets to Duquette.</p>
<p>Rodriguez went on to win the AL Most Valuable Player award in 2003, 2005, and 2007 and won the World Series with the Yankees in 2009. The alternate history of Rodriguez on the Mets is fascinating, and opens up several questions.</p>
<p>How long would he have stayed with the team? What would they have done with Wright and Reyes? And, despite Phillips&#8217; quotes, was it really just the money that kept the Mets from signing A-Rod? If the Mets had offered $170 or $180 million–something that the former GM once hinted may not have been enough–it seems now that Rodriguez would have accepted. If so, baseball in New York would have been very, very different</p>
<p><em>Photo Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The Call Up: Michael Conforto</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/01/the-call-up-michael-conforto/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Sep 2016 13:59:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jeffrey Paternostro]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Alternate History]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mets Minors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[alternate history]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Conforto]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[(Editor&#8217;s Note: Welcome to an alternate-history version of Michael Conforto&#8217;s Mets career.) The Situation: It’s September 1, the time of year when rosters expand and fans get a look at some of the young, exciting players on the farm. And if the excitement of meaningful games in September isn’t enough for Mets fans, they will [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>(Editor&#8217;s Note: Welcome to an alternate-history version of Michael Conforto&#8217;s Mets career.)</em></p>
<p><b>The Situation: </b><span style="font-weight: 400">It’s September 1, the time of year when rosters expand and fans get a look at some of the young, exciting players on the farm. And if the excitement of meaningful games in September isn’t enough for Mets fans, they will get to see their top prospect in action, as Michael Conforto will get the call to the bigs along with Ty Kelly, Kevin Plawecki, and Gabriel Ynoa. </span></p>
<p><b>Background: </b><span style="font-weight: 400">Conforto was the Mets&#8217; first-round pick in 2014 out of Oregon State and has made quick work of the minor leagues. Following a brief stint in Brooklyn after he signed in July, where the Mets made some tweaks to his swing, Conforto blew through St. Lucie and Binghamton in 2015, hitting .297/.372/.482 between his two stops. He may have been in line for a major league call-up </span><i><span style="font-weight: 400">last </span></i><span style="font-weight: 400">Summer, before Yoenis Cespedes arrived in Flushing at the deadline. Instead, Conforto has to settle for top-20 prospect ranking at consolation. And he has been (multiple flame emojis) in Triple-A in 2016, posting a .422/.483/.727 despite a wrist issue that kept him on the shelf for parts of the first half. Yes, it’s the PCL, and yes, it’s Las Vegas, but that’s a 1.210 (twelve-ten!) OPS. That’s the best mark in the league since 2009. It’s surprising it took this long for him to get the call, although the Mets had a crowded corner outfield situation even before the acquisition of Jay Bruce at the deadline. You’d think they could have found regular playing time for Baseball Prospectus&#8217;s No. 4 midseason prospect, especially as the offense sputtered through the summer.</span></p>
<p><b>Scouting Report: </b><span style="font-weight: 400">To rate a corner outfielder this high as a prospect, you better be able to hit, and Conforto ticks both the hit and power boxes with a big, bold ‘X’. There is a school of scouting thought that says “just pick the best hitter, worry about the rest out later” If you subscribe to that, Conforto had a midseason case for No. 1. The power jumps out at you right away, the ball just sounds different coming off the bat, and it plays to all fields. He doesn’t look the part of the big, hulking slugger, but he has huge forearms and plenty of bat speed. It isn’t a one-dimensional offensive profile either. Conforto is a plus hitter with a major-league-quality approach at the plate. In his minor league career he has had a bit of a platoon split, but nothing that suggests he won’t be able to handle major league lefties with more reps, and has stayed in well against them in my looks.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">He is best-suited to left field, a position currently manned by Yoenis Cespedes. </span>Reports out of college were bearish on his defense, but he is a better athlete than he looks, and has a solid, accurate arm, albeit one that would be stretched in right. He projects as average to maybe a tick above in left. Of course the 51s have been playing him off-and-on in center field, which is a stretch even by this organization’s liberal interpretation of “up-the-middle” tools. Conforto is a smart baserunner, and only a below-average runner at present, although you would expect him to slide down the scale as he moves into his mid-to-late 20s. The overall package here is a first-division leftfielder, one with the potential to make a few All-Star games along the way.</p>
<p><b>Immediate Big League Future: </b><span style="font-weight: 400">Well, one of the reasons the Mets couldn’t find room for our midseason No. 4 prospect is manager Terry Collins’ predilection for veterans. Despite the second half struggles of Curtis Granderson (.188/.258/.367 since the All-Star Break) and Jay Bruce (.169/.253/.281 as a Met), both have continued to get penciled into the lineup most days. Conforto offers more offensive upside than either at the point, which should be an attractive proposition to a team that will need to ride a month-long wave of overperformance if they want to sneak into a wild card spot. But most likely Conforto will be limited to pinch-hitting appearances and the occasional Sunday start as the season winds down. Hopefully he will be able to stake his claim for a 2017 roster spot despite what is likely to be irregular playing time.</span></p>
<p><em>Photo Credit- Steve Mitchell: USA Today Sports</em></p>
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