Las Vegas 51s (Triple-A)

Pitcher: Andrew Church

I went down to Binghamton two weeks ago in hopes of getting another look at Nabil Crismatt. However, because it’s minor league baseball and probable pitchers are always subject to change, I instead caught Church by accident for what would be my third look in two months. I wasn’t thrilled, as I had seen enough in my first two looks that I was contemplating writing up a full report for the site, but I figured a third look couldn’t hurt. Little did I know it would be one of the last times Church would ever step out on a mound.

Church was lit up by Erie for six runs on nine hits in just four innings, raising his ERA to 6.44 for the season. It seemed likely that Church would spend the rest of the season in Double-A and probably repeat the level next season. I had Church down as a 3, an organizational pitcher unlikely to ever reach the big leagues. All that being said, you can imagine the look on my face when I heard the news only two days later that Church had been promoted to Triple-A Las Vegas. I immediately shared the news with our own Jeffrey Paternostro, who theorized that Church was on turn and Vegas needed an arm in the rotation.

What we didn’t know was that Church informed the Mets organization of his intent to retire from professional baseball. Church was born in Las Vegas and asked the organization if he could make one last start in front of his family and friends before he decided to hang his cleats up. After making one relief appearance with Vegas, he started this past Sunday and allowed five earned on seven hits in four innings. The following day, Church announced his retirement from professional baseball. Arm injuries plagued the former second-round pick, who saw his 95 mph fastball from his days as an amateur drop down to the high 80s this season. Church obviously didn’t pan out, but it’s hard to blame a player who consistently battled injuries for his failures. I wasn’t high on Church’s potential as a major league pitcher, but that doesn’t make it any less sad to see someone’s dreams crushed. Baseball players are capable of some amazing things but don’t forget that they’re human. Celebrate and enjoy their greatness while you can because as we’ve seen with Matt Harvey and others, you never know when it’s all going to come crashing down.

Hitter: Kevin Kaczmarski

A ninth-round pick in the 2015 draft, Kaczmarski will turn 27 in December and is running out of time to prove why he deserves a shot in the majors. With Vegas in need of outfield depth, Kaczmarski was promoted from Port St. Lucie and is taking full advantage of the opportunity, slashing .529/.545/.706 in his first 17 at-bats. The organization doesn’t have great minor league depth in the outfield, hence the Jose Bautista signing, so Kaczmarski could possibly receive a chance in the majors if the opportunity presents itself (which, sorry Kevin, hopefully doesn’t happen).

That being said, there is a valid argument to be made that Kaczmarski is among the top minor league options in the organization though. He slashed .274/.370/.369 last year for Binghamton but lacks the traditional power required to profile in a corner outfield spot. He’s shown an impressive strikeout-to-walk ratio throughout his minor league career, but it’s not good enough to make up for the complete lack of home run power.

Although he played center in college, Kaczmarski is a left fielder with a fringe arm. He doesn’t excel at any one particular skill and it’s hard to see where his value comes from. I don’t think there’s enough here for Kaczmarski to be a major league contributor, but the way things are going injury-wise, he may be called upon to help the big league ball club.

Binghamton Rumble Ponies (Double-A)

Pitcher: Eric Hanhold

Hanhold came over from the Brewers in last season’s Neil Walker trade but was overshadowed by fellow relievers Gerson Bautista, Jamie Callahan and Ryder Ryan, who were also acquired at the deadline. The Brewers had been using Hanhold as a starter but the Mets chose to convert him full time to the bullpen once he joined the organization, a wise decision that’s seemingly fast-tracked him for a potential big league role this season. I was incredibly impressed when I saw Hanhold during the second game of the season and aggressively threw a 7 out on his fastball.  Hanhold sits 97-99 mph with it and generates fantastic movement that helps him induce a ton of ground balls.

My favorite large adult son had a 2.84 ERA and 32 strikeouts against nine walks in his 25.1 innings with the Rumble Ponies. Notice I used “had,” because Hanhold was promoted to Triple-A Las Vegas on Wednesday. With the Mets calling up Tim Peterson, the 51s needed a relief arm and Hanhold is as good as any in the system. I’m quite high on Hanhold, as one might have guessed, and think he’s got high leverage reliever written all over him. There isn’t much for Hanhold to learn out in Vegas and the stats won’t tell us much, so the hope is he can stay sharp and prepare for a big league call-up that now seems likely to come before September.

Hitter: Tomas Nido

What a roller coaster ride it’s been for Nido this season. After beginning the year with the Rumble Ponies, Nido was called up to the majors to back up Jose Lobaton after Travis d’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki went down with injuries. Then the Mets traded for Devin Mesoraco and got Plawecki back, sending Nido to Triple-A for 17 at-bats. Now, Nido finds himself right back where he started, in Binghamton.

Nido looked extremely overmatched at the plate during his big league stay, struggling to a .159/.208/.182 line in 44 at-bats. Many of his at-bats were simply non-competitive and it became clear quickly that Nido needed more reps down on the farm. I saw Nido with Binghamton before his call-up and thought he was showing signs of improvement with the bat. His pitch recognition looked to be well improved and his bat control was impressive. I noted that I hoped Nido would try to sell out for his 60 raw instead of hitting an empty .265 and I still hold that same position. While he looked good at the plate in my look, it was against some middling Eastern League pitching, quite a step down from the majors.

Although his work with the bat left a lot to be desired, Nido was terrific behind the plate. He impressed with his framing and ability to actually throw runners out, something d’Arnaud in particular struggled with. His oft-raved about defense looked every bit as good as it was advertised and will carry him to the majors one way or another. If the bat develops, Nido’s going to be a starting catcher and if it doesn’t, he’s still likely going to be a major league backup. There’s risk here, but Nido has a high floor because of his ability behind the plate.

Columbia Fireflies (A)

Pitcher: Joe Cavallaro

I decided to switch things up this week and go with two pitchers, so let’s take a look at two starters who are off to great starts in Columbia. Cavallaro was a 24th-round pick in last year’s draft out of the University of South Florida. The 6’4” right-hander has some deception in his wind-up and hitters struggle to pick the ball up. He sits in the high 80s and low 90s with his fastball, but his best pitch is a low 80s slider. He’s comfortable using the slider in all counts and is currently holding opponents to a .195 average in the Sally League.

In 46.2 innings for Columbia, Cavallaro has a 2.12 ERA to go along with 51 strikeouts against 17 walks. While there’s reason for optimism here, Cavallaro is still a 22-year-old college pitcher in Single-A. The Columbia roster is full of interesting collegiate players who probably need to be promoted at this point, such as David Peterson, Jeremy Vasquez and Tony Dibrell. We’re currently in wait-and-see mode with Cavallaro but there might be something here, so we’ll be keeping an eye on him.

Pitcher: Tony Dibrell

The aforementioned Dibrell was a fourth-round pick of the organization in last year’s draft. The 22-year-old pitched collegiately at Kennesaw State and is off to a nice start with the Fireflies, holding a 3.88 ERA with 60 strikeouts in 51 innings. The right-hander broke out in 2016 on the Cape and planted himself firmly on the radar of major league teams for the 2017 draft with a 1.66 ERA in 38 innings pitched.

Dibrell sits in the low-to-mid-90s with his fastball but doesn’t generate much movement with it. He complements the fastball with a slider, a changeup and a curveball, of which the slider is presently the best of the off-speed offerings. I’d rank them slider, change, curveball, with the curve far behind the others. The Mets have an affinity for fastball-slider pitchers and Dibrell is one of many the organization hopes can blossom into a major league arm.

The biggest problem hindering Dibrell’s progress is his command, as he’s already walked 28 batters this season. Command’s been a problem for Dibrell since college and it’s something he’ll need to improve before he can move up the minor league ladder. Like Cavallaro, Dibrell is a collegiate pitcher in A-ball so we’ll hold off much judgement until he’s promoted. Expect that to happen at some point this season, as the Binghamton and Las Vegas rotations are in dire need of capable starters.

Photo credit: Aaron Doster – USA Today Sports

Las Vegas 51s (Triple-A)

Pitcher: Tim Peterson

I haven’t seen him live and don’t have a recent report on him, but I can’t ignore Peterson’s performance in Las Vegas any longer. A 20th round pick in 2012, Peterson’s striking out almost 40% of batters to go with a pristine 2.91 ERA in 17 appearances this season. The fact he’s doing it in the hitter’s paradise that is Las Vegas makes it all the more impressive. This level of performance isn’t coming out of nowhere; he was really good for Binghamton last season too, with a strikeout rate above 26% and a 1.14 ERA. Combine that with a 5% walk rate and there may be something here. There is some inevitable drawback though. Peterson is 27 years old, isn’t on the 40-man and wasn’t selected in the Rule 5 draft. He only ran a 31.1% groundball rate in Double-A last season but he excels at keeping the ball in the park. I don’t know what the Mets have here and they clearly don’t either, but if a 40-man spot opens up I think Peterson could be worth a look. If he doesn’t get a chance with the Mets, some team is going to see the minor league numbers and give him a chance.

Hitter: Dominic Smith

I’ll refer you to the recent piece BP Mets writer Tyler Oringer and I wrote on Smith, but let’s talk a little more about what happened last week. With Jay Bruce heading to the paternity list for the weekend series against Philadelphia, the Mets had the bright idea to use the roster spot on Smith. It was a curious choice that became even more controversial when Smith took only one official plate appearance in the shortened series. Smith’s a former first rounder who made a couple of Top 100 lists, but his prospect shine wore off completely when he flopped in the majors last season. He’s now been passed by Peter Alonso as the first baseman of the future and there doesn’t seem to be a role for Smith at the major league level. Smith’s got a good glove at first but if the Mets didn’t plan to start him, wouldn’t Phillip Evans (whose since been called up) have made more sense?  I couldn’t tell you one good reason why Smith got the call, but I can tell you that he hasn’t been great in Vegas. Smith’s striking out in 23% of his plate appearances and has only two home runs in 119 at-bats. That’s a problem when you’re a 1B only prospect. It’s hard to decipher what the Mets plan to do with Smith at this point, but I wouldn’t put anything past this organization.

Binghamton Rumble Ponies (Double-A)

Pitcher: Andrew Church

Church is off to an interesting, if uninspiring, start to the 2018 season. On one hand, he’s been relatively healthy and has bumped his K/9 from 5.79 in Port St. Lucie last season to 7.68 with Binghamton thus far. Health and strikeout rate have been two of the biggest knocks on Church as a prospect, so it’s nice to see the improvement on both fronts. On the other hand, though, he’s been getting hit hard and his fastball has backed up a bit. I was in Binghamton Wednesday night to see Church for the third time this season and he was mired in the same inconsistencies that have plagued him all year. In four innings of work, Church was knocked around for eight hits and six earned, but he also struck out eight. Church has touched 95 in the past, but repeated arm injuries have taken a toll and I’ve had him in the 88-92 range, topping at 93, in all three of the starts I’ve seen. The fastball doesn’t have great movement and Church has really struggled to locate it in my past two looks, so much so that he’s pretty much abandoned it following the first inning. Instead, he’s been primarily working with an 82-84 mph slider that’s easily his best pitch at this point. He’s comfortable throwing it in any count, for strikes and whiffs, and it’s flashed average for me in all three looks. Church also has a changeup I haven’t seen much of and a curve that’s rarely thrown but shows signs of usefulness. The curve sits 74-78 mph with good depth but is mainly reserved for two-strike counts. I mentioned that Church has abandoned his fastball after the first inning in my two most recent looks, and he’s seen some really good results for the next couple of innings. The second and third times around the order are a problem though, as opposing hitters have gotten a good look at the slider and are just sitting on it. I don’t think there’s enough here for Church to cut it as a starter at the major league level, but he could be a guy who moves to the bullpen in a middle relief role and sees a needed velo bump.

Hitter: Tim Tebow

Love him or hate him, Tebow’s surpassed all expectations at Double-A, slashing .248/.323/.419 in almost 120 at-bats. I was as skeptical as everyone when this whole thing began, but I’ve been pleasantly surprised by what I’ve seen in my four looks this season. Now don’t get me wrong, we’re not talking about a future superstar here, or anything close for that matter, but take the name off the back of the jersey and Tebow looks and plays like your average Double-A outfielder. The problem here is Tebow’s already 30 years old and anything but your average minor league baseball player.

Tebow’s been swinging a hot bat recently, giving me hope for a better look than my previous ones, but I was left disappointed yet again. We’ll start at the plate, where he actually didn’t look as overmatched against good velo as he did earlier in the season. His first at-bat was a nine-pitch, six foul-ball battle against Beau Burrows that was easily the best AB I’ve seen from him all season. The swing looks better than it did even earlier this year and I’m more confident than before that he can catch up to major league fastballs. That’s the good news.

The bad news is he’s still kind of a mess in left field. He really struggles to track deep fly balls and to be honest, he kind of looks lost out there. His footwork isn’t good and he takes bad routes to balls that he should easily catch. For a former NFL QB, his arm leaves a lot to be desired. I know that’s primarily the reason he’s out of the NFL and in MLB, but one would think he’d get a little more zip on his throws in from the outfield. Back to the hitting side of things; Tebow still swings through fastballs up in the zone, something that’s going to get exposed by major league pitching when he reaches that level. The off-speed recognition still isn’t there either, but that’s something that should improve with more experience and it’s hard to knock a guy who was out of the game for 10 years.

There’s a real argument to be made that Tebow is one of the best outfield options in the high minors of this system. Now, that’s more of a reflection on the outfield depth in the system rather than his talent, but we’ve officially entered “this isn’t crazy” territory. He’s going to get a chance in the majors this year or next.

Port St. Lucie Mets (High-A)

Hitter: Andres Gimenez

The No. 1 prospect in the system, Gimenez is more than holding his own as a 19-year-old in High-A. Port St. Lucie was an aggressive assignment to begin the season, but Gimenez destroyed rookie ball and showed enough promise in Columbia last season that it didn’t feel forced. He doesn’t have a standout tool, but Gimenez projects as a major league shortstop with some skills at the dish. A left-handed hitter, he has good bat control and should grow into a plus hit tool eventually. There is some projection left, but not enough to project average game power, which may not be a problem considering Gimenez already hits a bunch of line drives. The line, .262/.331/.418, is actually really impressive for a 19-year-old in High-A, as are the 12 extra base hits. Gimenez is also an above-average runner and has nine stolen bases against two caught stealing’s. Out in the field, he has good actions at short and a strong enough arm that should allow him to stick there. Gimenez isn’t tooled up, but it’s an impressive package coupled with great results thus far. Gimenez should be a frequent member of the Prospect Watch for years to come.

Columbia Fireflies (A)

Pitcher: David Peterson

The Mets’ first-round draft pick last season is off to a good, if not great, start with Columbia. Peterson’s a tall lefty out of Oregon with a chance for three above-average offerings. He stands 6’6” and looks intimidating out on the mound, but he’s not a power pitcher by any means. His fastball sits in the low 90s and touches 95, but Peterson gets great movement on it. There probably isn’t a whole ton of projection left on the fastball, but it’s already above average so that shouldn’t be a big problem. Peterson also throws a slider and a changeup that both flash above average. He throws the slider more often, but the changeup might be the better future offering, although it does need some more work. In 30.2 innings for Columbia this season, Peterson is only running a 20.5% strikeout rate, which isn’t all that promising for the first returns on a collegiate first rounder. He is running a terrific 64% groundball rate though, which is very encouraging. Currently the best pitching prospect in the system, Peterson is more of a No. 3 starter than someone with ace or even No. 2 potential. His value mainly derives from the fact that he should be able to climb the minor league ladder relatively quickly. If the changeup doesn’t develop, Peterson should still be able to carve out a role as a big league reliever. Like Gimenez, look for Peterson to make frequent appearances on the Prospect Watch in the coming years.

Photo credit: Scott Rovak – USA Today Sports

AAA Las Vegas 51s

1B Dominic Smith

Smith is a great example of just how quickly the public perception of a prospect can change. At this time last year, Mets fans were clamoring for the highly regarded Smith to get a call-up to the big leagues. Now? They want to trade him after only 170 at-bats to clear the way for Peter Alonso. A first-round pick in 2013, Smith hit at every level in the minors but really struggled last year with the Mets, slashing .198/.262/.395. A rare hit-before-power first baseman prospect, Smith is going to really need to get on base in order to be anything more than league average.

One of the biggest criticisms of Smith has been his weight, but he looked a lot lighter this spring and I was floored when I saw him in person. He looked at least 20 pounds lighter and his athleticism is more evident now. Smith has always been considered a plus defender at first due to his soft hands and ability to scoop bad throws, and I saw much of the same in my look. Unfortunately, Smith didn’t see a single good pitch to hit on the evening; Fresno chose to pitch him cautiously, and it ultimately resulted in four walks for Smith. Smith has an old-school approach at the plate, which explains his high walk-to-strikeout ratio as well as his low home run output. I was impressed with his pitch recognition and approach, which need to be plus, and they are, if this profile is going to work in the big leagues. He’s the sort of player that really divides scout’s opinions: they either like him and think he’ll get on base enough, or they don’t think he profiles as a regular at first. I fall into the first camp and think Smith is going to be a major league contributor at first for some organization. With Peter Alonso doing his best Rhys Hoskins impression though, it’s become a real question whether Smith will get the chance to be that for the Mets. I don’t think it’s in the Mets best interests to sell him for pennies on the dollar based on his short major league stint last season, but I also think Alonso has passed him at this point and there may not be a spot on the major league team. It’s a good problem to have and if Adrian Gonzalez continues to struggle, one of them will get the call. Just who that is remains to be seen, although Alonso has to be the favorite at this point.

SS Luis Guillorme

Upon first glance, Guillorme looks extremely out of place on the diamond, much less at shortstop. Then you see him play defense and wonder why he’s in Triple-A and Jose Reyes is in the big leagues. I wrote about Guillorme in our first Prospect Watch of the season and think he’s going to be a valuable contributor for a long time. He has fantastic range at short despite his below average wheels and makes plays Reyes dreams of. I saw him make a diving stop on a ball up the middle and throw the runner out from his knees, just to give you an idea of the impact he could have at short. At the dish, Guillorme likes to go the opposite way and has an advanced two-strike approach; he walked 17 more times than he struck out last season at Double-A Binghamton. He’s never going to hit for much power and it’s likely his OBP is higher than his SLG, but couple that with his defense and we’re talking about an extremely valuable player. I think there’s utility man risk here, especially with the Mets, but Guillorme can get a starting role with a different organization at short. There’s no doubt in my mind he can be an asset for the Mets right now but the team’s in more immediate need of guys who can hit, which Guillorme can, but he still has some things to work on and can use the everyday at-bats he’s getting in Vegas.

3B David Thompson

Thompson, a 2013 fourth-round pick, hit .263/.325/.429 for Binghamton last season and showed enough promise to earn a promotion to Triple-A to begin the year. He’s a pretty “boring” prospect in the sense that he doesn’t do anything particularly well; instead, he does everything good enough. Thompson is intriguing as a hitter because he doesn’t strike out at an egregious rate and has some pop — he hit 16 home runs in Double-A last season — but it remains to be seen if that’s enough to outweigh his below-average on-base production. He’s never OBP’d higher than .344 in the minors and was at just .325 last season. Thompson went 1-3 in my look, with a single, a walk and a strikeout. I thought his defense was good enough to stick at third but I don’t think the bat profiles there. Thompson is currently a 35 with a chance for a 40, a below average regular, because he could be a guy who sees his home run rate spike in the big leagues.

UTIL Phillip Evans

Evans is the definition of a utility player and his defensive flexibility can be valuable for a National League team. Like other position player prospects at Vegas, he doesn’t strike out often and walks a healthy amount. Evans broke out in 2016 with a .321 average across two levels, but it’s an outlier among some subpar minor league seasons. Capable of playing “passible” defense at every infield position, Evans earned a spot on the Mets Opening Day roster but only made three appearances as a pinch hitter before being sent back down. Evans went 0-4 with two strikeouts in my look and was disappointing at the plate overall. The Mets have a lot of guys in the upper-level minors who can play multiple positions but project as utility players, which is a good thing or a bad thing depending on who you ask. Evans value will come from his defensive versatility, but I’m not sure he ever gets a long enough look with a major league club.

AA Binghamton Rumble Ponies

1B Peter Alonso

Alonso is all the rage these days and rightfully so: the dude is smashing the cover off the ball at Binghamton, hitting .393/.490/.762 with eight home runs to start the season. He’s struck out 18 times against 16 walks and has debuted a new approach at the plate to go along with the swing change he made at the end of last season. Safe to say it’s worked, as Alonso’s hit tool has caught up to his game power, resulting in the incredible output we’ve seen thus far. I’ve seen Alonso three times this season and he’s been impressive, to say the least: he homered in two of the three games and was 2-4 with a walk in the other. Alonso has always had 70 raw power, but he’s now got a 60 hit tool to go along with it. I do think he needs to work on his off-speed recognition, I saw him hit two soft lineouts on offspeed pitches to second in my most recent look, but it’s a minor qualm with an otherwise polished hitter. On the defensive side of things, he’s still a 40 for me at first, as I’ve seen him make great plays along with some really bad ones. Alonso takes bad routes to fly balls and completely whiffed on an easy popup in front of the dugout in my most recent look. He still pulls his head out on scoops and has dropped a couple balls because of it. That being said, I saw him snag a sharp line drive from Cavan Biggio to double up Vlad Jr. and it was a thing of beauty. The defense is better than last year but I don’t know if there’s much more room for improvement, he may just be what he is, which isn’t a problem when you can hit like Alonso. I think that some sort of transaction is going to be made before June 1, but I’m not entirely sure what it’s going to be. Dom Smith could get the call to the bigs while Alonso heads to Triple-A, or Alonso can follow the Michael Conforto route, jumping straight from Double-A to the majors. I think the latter is more likely and there’s no question the Mets are going to be aggressive in upgrading the position if Gonzalez proves he’s just not a good baseball player anymore.

RHP Nabil Crismatt

Crismatt’s gotten off to an incredible start to the season and he’s doing it with some pretty average stuff for a starting pitcher. He’s got a 2.28 ERA to go along with 32 strikeouts against only five walks in 27.2 innings for Binghamton. I saw Crismatt against the best team in the Eastern League, the New Hampshire Fisher Cats (Toronto Blue Jays Double-A affiliate) and I came away extremely impressed. Crismatt was efficient and finished with 92 pitches, allowing only one earned run while striking out six and only walking one. He was working with a fastball sitting 86-87 mph and touching 88 in the early innings, but it dropped to around 85-86 as we entered the fourth. The fastball has natural two-seam run and Crismatt keeps it low in the zone, which leads to a lot of groundball outs. Although it doesn’t have great velo, the fastball plays up due to Crismatt’s above average command, and he’s not afraid to attack hitters with it in two-strike counts. His best offering is a plus changeup that sits 78-80 mph and generates a ton of swings and misses. It has good drop and is his go-to two-strike pitch, and it wasn’t squared up once on the evening. He also throws a curveball which was 66-70 mph for me with 12-6 movement, but it can get loopy and advanced hitters are going to tee off on it. Crismatt hung a curveball to Vlad Jr. (note to MLB pitchers, this is a REALLY bad idea) and he smashed it to left center for an RBI single. Crismatt also has a slider but he only threw six for me; it was 76-77 mph with late break and flashes above average. I think it’s useful against right-handed hitters but it’s probably too slow to get outs against lefties consistently. Overall, I thought he had great pitch mix, limits hard contact, and wasn’t afraid to go after guys despite his average (besides the change) stuff. I think he’s a future No. 4/5 who should be ready to debut sometime next season.

RHP Andrew Church

Church was just placed on the 7-day disabled list, but I saw him in a start against New Hampshire and the results weren’t pretty. Church was in trouble all night and the Fisher Cats got to him early, as he allowed two runs in the first: a leadoff home run to Jonathan Davis and an RBI groundout to Vlad Jr. Church was sitting 88-90 mph with his fastball, which is consistent with what I had him at when I saw him earlier in the season, but it got him into trouble early and he went away from it after the first inning. Instead, he was working with his slider, which was 82-84 mph, and his curve, which was 70-74 mph and generated groundball outs. He was starting at-bats out with his slider, which has significant right to left movement, and it’s a real weapon against left-handed hitters. Church was reluctant to use his below-average curveball, but development of a useful third pitch is necessary for him to move up the minor league ladder. He works quickly and pitches to contact but based on my two looks, I think he’s a 30 who still has many things he needs to work on.

RHP Tyler Bashlor

Bashlor is one of many hard throwing right-handed relievers in Binghamton, but he wasn’t great in my most recent look. Bashlor was brought in with one out and a man on first, and he proceeded to walk the bases loaded on only eight pitches. He was able to escape trouble though, with a strikeout and a fly ball to end the inning. Bashlor was missing up and out of the zone with his fastball consistently, and pitching coach Frank Viola went out twice during the inning to try and calm him down. Overall, Bashlor has been terrific this season with a 0.96 ERA and 12 strikeouts against five walks in 9.1 innings. Fastball command is going to be a big key for Bashlor, who’s already on the 40-man and looks likely to take a ride on the Mets bullpen shuttle at some point this season.

Photo credit: Andy Marlin – USA Today Sports

1B Peter Alonso

A former 2nd round pick in the 2016 draft, Alonso had a terrific 2017 at the dish but failed to answer lingering questions about his defense and conditioning. Alonso hit .289/.359/.524 across two levels last year, spending 82 games with High-A Port St. Lucie before finishing the season with Double-A Binghamton for 11 games. In our own Jeffrey Paternostro’s and the BP prospect staff’s ranking of the organizations top 10 prospects, Alonso found himself ranked seventh due to the combination of hit and power potential he possesses.

After a bad first inning strikeout in which he swung and missed at two consecutive 89 mph fastballs up in the zone, Alonso reached base in all three of his remaining at-bats. The hit tool was as advertised, as I saw Alonso take a two-strike fastball down and away over the right fielder’s head for an RBI double in his third at-bat. I was impressed with Alonso’s bat-to-ball skills; he gets his bat to the ball quickly, which allows him an extra sliver of a second to see the incoming pitch. In the field, Alonso did little to answer the defensive questions that have surrounded him since college. On one hand, he made an impressive play looking a runner back to third on a hard hit grounder with the infield in. On the other, he had a lot of trouble with a routine pop out in foul territory, taking a bad route to it and almost dropping it. I don’t think the defense was bad enough that he can’t field his position adequately, but there’s no denying it’s below league average. With his approach and power potential, Alonso looks like he fits the everyday first basemen profile at the dish.

C Tomas Nido

Nido is a former 8th rounder who was added to the 40-man roster after the 2016 season. A defense-first catcher, he struggled with the bat in 2017, hitting a paltry .232/.287/.354 in 102 games for Double-A Binghamton. He was a September call-up for the Mets and collected three hits in 10 at-bats. Nido ranked sixth, one spot ahead of Alonso in the organizations top 10 over at our main site.

Nido was in the lineup at DH Saturday, so I wasn’t able to get a look at his oft-raved about defense. He fell behind 1-2 in his first at-bat but took an 81 mph slider down and away to right field for a leadoff double. The bat control was impressive, and the pitch recognition he showed throughout the game was a welcome sign considering his .287 OBP last season. Nido made a swing change last season, using a leg kick in an effort to more effectively get to his raw power. The leg kick wasn’t as pronounced on Saturday as it was last season, which could be a good thing or a bad thing depending on who you ask. I would rather see him try to sell out for power than hit an empty .265 in the majors, but it appears the Mets feel otherwise. With the bases loaded in the 5th, Nido took the first pitch he saw to right center for a three-run double. If Nido can get to his 60 raw power in games, he’s going to develop into an easy top 100 prospect in all of baseball.

RHP Andrew Church

Church is another former 2nd rounder and has shown signs of developing into useful rotation depth for the Mets. 2017 was his best season as a pro as he threw 152 innings with a 4.62 ERA for High-A Port St. Lucie, but he only struck out 95 batters resulting in a 6.25 K/9. Church was sitting 88-90 mph with his fastball for me, it’s straight and lacks movement, but his late release point causes it to come inside to lefties and away from righties. The delivery isn’t great, it’s max effort and doesn’t do his control any favors. His best weapon was a slider that had significant right to left movement and is a weapon against lefties. I saw a couple of 45/50 sliders and he was sitting 82-85 with it on the afternoon. The slider is Church’s go-to with two strikes and it generates a significant amount of swings and misses.

Church also showed a below average curveball that was 70-72 and is only thrown with two strikes. He did throw a couple 40 curves though, striking out Mike Olt with one to end the 3rd inning. Developing a third pitch is necessary for Church, as he works quickly and pitches to contact, which limits his pitch count but explains the low K/9. Church did have six strikeouts on the afternoon, and if he can elevate the K/9 to somewhere in the 8.0 range, his outlook immediately improves. The right-hander currently projects as Quad-A rotation depth, with a small chance for more if he can find a useful third pitch.

RHP Eric Hanhold

Hanhold was the PTBNL acquired from the Brewers in last year’s Neil Walker trade. Formerly a starter, the Mets have elected to move Hanhold to the bullpen, and he looked great in his 2018 debut outing Saturday. The flame-throwing right-hander was the most impressive player I saw on the afternoon, as he was sitting 94-96 with his fastball, even hitting 99 mph out of the pen. The fastball, a four-seamer that sometimes shows two-seam run, has great sinking action and induces a ton of ground balls. It’s already comfortably plus and even flashed plus-plus for me on the afternoon. The pitch is currently at least a 60 with the potential for a lot more at peak. Hanhold posted a groundball rate around 60% last season, which is fantastic for a potential high leverage reliever.

Unsurprisingly for a pitcher in the Mets organization, Hanhold also throws a slider, but it’s a well-developed pitch that sits 87-89 mph. The slider showed tight break and flashed plus for me, and Hanhold is comfortable throwing it in any count. I saw a 55 slider in a 3-0 count to Conrad Gregor in the 6th inning, and Hanhold eventually got Gregor to ground out to second. With a potential plus-plus fastball and plus slider, Hanhold projects as a high leverage reliever that could reach Triple-A Las Vegas by the end of the season.  I really like Hanhold and think he’s a got a shot as a potential 55 closer down the road.

RHP Tyler Bashlor

Bashlor struck out 61 batters in only 34 innings last season at High-A Port St. Lucie. He threw two scoreless innings on Saturday, striking out two. The fastball was sitting 91-93, it topped out at 94 mph, and he threw it almost exclusively. That’s a large step down from the 94-98 mph he was reportedly sitting at last season. It could be due to the cold temperatures and I’m not ready to write the velocity off completely until I get a couple more looks, but it’s interesting to say the least. When he wasn’t throwing his fastball, Bashlor was using his 82 mph slurve to keep hitters off balance. The slurve has a ton of right to left movement and drop, although it’s easy to spot coming out of his hand. I saw at least one 55 slurve and it has potential to be a real weapon for Bashlor. Bashlor is definitely someone to keep an eye on this season and he has 7th inning potential at peak.

LF Tim Tebow

After going yard in his first at-bat of the season, on the first pitch he saw, Tebow is 0-6 and failed to generate any hard contact Saturday. The swing is max effort and it seems as if Tebow is trying to hit a home run every single time he steps up to the plate. His bat speed isn’t great either, as he was behind on 88-89 mph fastballs all throughout the afternoon. Tebow looked uncomfortable facing left-handers and is looking for strictly fastballs he can hit out of the park. I don’t think Tebow looked all that different from last season, but it’s only been two games and he has the whole season to prove us wrong. I would be shocked to see Tebow reach Triple-A Las Vegas in 2018.

Here’s a video of @RumblePoniesBB LF Tim Tebow in the 6th inning. Tebow struck out swinging. #Tebow #Mets pic.twitter.com/YgNmSGk6nB

— Alex Rosen (@asros213) April 7, 2018

Photo credit: Gregory Fisher – USA Today Sports

Joining Justin Dunn in the St. Lucie rotation to open the season—and hopefully in Binghamton before the year is over—is Marcos Molina (#15). Like Dunn, the 22-year-old pitcher comes with questions as to his ability to remain as a starter, yet those doubts are even louder with Molina. While athletic with plus stuff, Molina’s mechanics are far from ideal as he makes his return from Tommy John surgery. After sitting in the upper 80s with his fastball on the minor league backfields at the end of spring training, Molina has found his way back onto the disabled list to open the season. The complete lack of involvement of his lower body in his delivery puts an exorbitant amount of stress on his arm, which is unlikely to be sustainable for a starting pitcher. While his mechanics are not ideal for a relief pitcher—any kind of pitcher, really—shorter stints out of the pen would put less stress on Molina’s arm and allow him to sit closer to his peak velocity. While Molina is older now than this comp was then, Roberto Osuna’s 2015 promotion from a single-A starting pitcher who had undergone Tommy John surgery to a late-inning role in a major league bullpen is not out of the question for Molina. While that is obviously not what the Mets are planning to do with him at the moment, moving Molina to the bullpen sooner rather than later might make the most sense for all parties. With his stuff, Molina could legitimately pitch out of a major league bullpen before the 2017 season is finished.

Best known as the “non-elite prospect” the Mets acquired in the R.A. Dickey trade in 2012, the now-22-year-old Wuilmer Becerra (#10) has made the Baseball Prospectus Mets Top Ten two seasons running. Becerra, who underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in July, was protected from the Rule 5 Draft this winter despite not yet being ready to play the field to open the 2017 season. As the projected everyday designated hitter for the St. Lucie Mets for the first stretch of the season, Becerra will look to combine his above-average raw power with the plus hitting ability he has flashed in his recent seasons. While dealing with the shoulder injury during the first half of last season, Becerra hit only a single home run for St. Lucie in 2016, which isn’t going to work for a major league right fielder, his usual defensive home. However, if Becerra is able to put the whole package together, the tools are loud enough for him to project as an everyday right fielder in the majors. But even beyond the injury concerns, it’s a package with plenty of risk at the moment. A healthy and productive season that ends in the upper minors, highlighted by an increase in in-game power, could propel Becerra further up the Mets prospect lists and potentially onto global prospect lists next winter.

The Mets’ 2015 eighth-round pick out of Stetson University, Patrick Mazeika is a bat-first prospect whose ultimate future value is going to be determined by his defensive home. Mazeika, who has walked almost as many times as he’s struck out so far in his pro career—and gets an additional OBP boost from his Brandon Guyer-esque attraction to pitched baseballs—also offers a potential major-league-quality hit tool. If he is able to stick behind the plate, that is a good offensive starting point for a major league catcher. If he is forced to move off the position, which is a legitimate possibility given his current below-average glove and 6’3″ frame, he veers dangerously close to non-prospect status. His relative lack of power and line drive approach would not play well at first base—a position he has played some in his career—and the bat isn’t much more attractive in a corner outfield spot; he may not have the defensive chops for that anyway. His most realistic path to the major leagues is as a bat-first catcher whose high OBP makes up for his mediocre home run power and lackluster defense behind the plate.

2016 second-round pick Peter Alonso (#19), however, does not lack for power. Alonso has the best raw pop in the entire Mets minor league system. A right-handed hitting and fielding first baseman, he represents a bit of a rare breed as a prospect. Rarely are right-handed hitting first basemen considered to be prospects worthy of a high draft pick and the $909,200 signing bonus that Alonso received. Given that profile, his prospect status and baseball future relies solely on his bat and his ability to reach into his 70 raw power in games. After jumping over the South Atlantic League to open his first full professional season, Alonso will come to the Florida State League with the expectation that his bat will carry him into the upper minors and eventually to the major leagues. If he is able to adjust to better pitching than he saw in the SEC and shorten his swing from what he has shown to this past, he has a chance to develop into a middle-of-the-order bat sooner rather than later.

After selecting RHP Andrew Church (#21) with the 48th pick in the 2013 draft, the early returns for the Mets were less than stellar. At the end of the 2015 season, the now-21-year-old Church had yet to get out of short-season ball, and only struck out 75 batters in 132 professional innings.  2016 was a different story. Church emerged from extended spring training on May 24 to strike out nine batters in five innings for Columbia in his 2016 debut. For the season, he started 15 games, posting a 2.92 ERA and an improved, yet still pedestrian, 20.2% K-rate. Church, whose fastball touches as high as the mid 90s and slider flashes plus, will look to build on his 2016 campaign with an aggressive Double-A assignment. As Jarrett Seidler wrote recently, this season will be Church’s last before he is eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, so his performance—or lack thereof—in 2017 should give us a lot more clarity on his major league future.

Yet another 2016 draft pick making the jump from the Brooklyn Cyclones to the St. Lucie Mets in 2017 is fifth-round pick Colby Woodmansee. Woodmansee—who, given his tall frame, is likely to eventually move off of shortstop—skips over the South Atlantic League despite a mediocre 2016 season in his time at both the collegiate and professional levels. Following a strong sophomore year at Arizona State, Woodmansee was penciled in as a first or second round draft pick. However, a lack of improvement in his junior season allowed him to slip to the Mets in the fifth round, where they are hoping he can show again why he was considered by some to be a first round talent just a few months before the draft…St. Lucie’s lineup will also feature the return of 23-year-old John Mora. Mora, who got some burn in major league spring training, has limited power and average-at-best tools elsewhere. If he doesn’t end this season in Binghamton or Vegas, his chances of making the major leagues down the road can be considered minimal at best…the bullpen will feature Tyler Bashlor, who received a well-over-slot $550,000 signing bonus after being selected in the 11th round in 2013. Bashlor boasts a fastball that can touch 98 mph and a developing breaking ball. He has a chance to rise quickly to the majors if he is able to stay healthy and keep his walks under control.

Photo Credit: Reinhold Matay – USA Today Sports

Thomas Szapucki, LHP

As a live-armed prep pick in the mid-single digit rounds, Szapucki’s 2016 wasn’t totally out of nowhere. But the jump from low-90s and a promising curve to mid-90s with sharp action and a wipeout curve is pretty huge, and the numbers Szapucki put up in both Kingsport and Brooklyn were absolutely staggering. A back injury ended his 2016 slightly prematurely, and while we don’t believe it to be a serious injury, back problems and pitching prospects don’t always go well together. If Szapucki continues to progress his stuff, and if he continues to run strikeout rates into the mid-teens per nine, our ranking of him as the 69th-best prospect in baseball will no longer seem nice by this time next year. He’ll probably open in Low-A Columbia as part of the traveling Tim Tebow Circus, but High-A and even Double-A are within reach for later in the season. — Jarrett Seidler

Andres Gimenez, SS

I got a question in a BP chat recently asking me to compare Kevin Maitan and Andres Gimenez. Sammy in Connecticut seemed a bit skeptical that there was really that big a gap between them as prospects. I’m fairly confident that Maitan’s surfeit of offensive tools is enough to make him a Top 101 prospect before he ever takes the field for a professional game, stateside or otherwise. I get the premise though. Gimenez was very highly rated in the 2015 July 2 class, and we have reports on him from actual games, granted ones from the Dominican Summer League. It’s all data of course, but the best data can be found behind home plate, which is why I will be trucking to whatever short-season affiliate he ends up at this year to find out if we were in fact a year too late on him. I expect to find a polished shortstop and an advanced hitter for an 18-year-old, like if someone used the upgrade meme on Luis Carpio. But I suspect Gimenez has the capacity to surprise me as well, which is why I keep gassing up the car for East Tennessee every year. And speaking of Carpio … — Jeffrey Paternostro

Luis Carpio, SS/2B

We ranked Luis Carpio as the third-best prospect in the Mets system heading into the 2016 season. We ranked him ahead of Dom Smith, Desmond Lindsay, and Robert Gsellman. (I say we, but I was driving that bandwagon, and my byline is on the list.) Then Carpio tore his labrum in the Spring. See, it’s not just pitchers! It was an aggressive ranking at the time for a kid that spent most of the 2015 season as a 17-year-old, but it’s rare to find that level of defensive polish and advanced hitting ability at any age in the short-season leagues. The injury was to his right shoulder, and his arm was already maybe better suited to the right side of the infield, but I’m antsy to check in on the still-only-19-year-old. He made quite the first impression. — Jeffrey Paternostro

Tyler Bashlor, RHP

The Mets turned some heads in 2013, when they handed a $550,000 signing bonus to their 11th-round pick, junior college reliever Tyler Bashlor. After signing with the club, he pitched in 13 games for Kingsport that year, but then didn’t throw another professional pitch until 2016, losing two full seasons after undergoing Tommy John surgery. In a 2016 season that was spent primarily pitching out of the bullpen for the Columbia Fireflies, Bashlor showed why the Mets believed in him enough to give him more than half of a million dollars three years prior, posting a 12.16 K/9 and 2.50 ERA at the level. His fastball, which sits in the mid-90s and touched as high as 98 mph in 2016, is a legitimate swing-and-miss pitch that should carry him to Queens. The bigger questions for Bashlor are his secondary pitches and control. His command and control should figure to take strides forward in 2017 as he is another year removed from surgery. His slurve, which currently sits in the low-80s, is a pitch that could be improved upon (attn: Dan Warthen). If Bashlor is able to progress enough with command and the breaking ball, he will find himself on the fast track to pitching out of the Mets bullpen before too long. He figures to open this season in the bullpen for either St. Lucie or Binghamton. If all goes well, he won’t finish the season with the same affiliate that he began the year with. — Skyler Kanfer

Marcos Molina, RHP

The continuing saga of Zack Wheeler reminds us on a near-daily basis that Tommy John surgery is still anything but routine. Yet Marcos Molina has had, well, the “routine” recovery, popping back up about a year out from surgery. He used the Arizona Fall League as something of a rehab stint, throwing short outings and flashing the premium fastball/slider combination that made him one of the system’s best pitching prospects two years ago. With violent mechanics, a TJS in his background, and durability questions even before that, Molina still might be a reliever in the end, but 2017 represents his shot to get back on the fast track as a prospect. He could open as high as the Double-A Binghamton Rumble Ponies, and a pitcher on the 40 in the high-minors is of course only a phone call away from The Show. — Jarrett Seidler

Andrew Church, RHP

The 2013 second-round pick spent years in the wilderness bouncing around the lowest levels of the system as an oft-injured project, largely falling off the prospectdom map. In a tale that’s been around as long as there have been pitching prospects, he showed up in 2016 a new man, coming out of extended spring in May to shine for Low-A Columbia, mixing in a fill-in stint in High-A Port St. Lucie and a late-August emergency appearance for hometown Triple-A Las Vegas. Once again touching the mid-90s with his fastball and featuring a promising slider, Church could start back at High-A or get a bump to Double-A, where I think I have a pretty good chance to see him in Binghamton’s late-May/early-June visit to Trenton. A full year of effectiveness should get him in strong consideration for both a spot on both the 40-man roster and high up on next year’s prospect lists. — Jarrett Seidler

Desmond Lindsay, OF

Beyond the trio of Mets prospects who made the BP 101 list, there is not a prospect in the Mets farm system with more upside than Desmond Lindsay. Lindsay, the organization’s top draft pick in 2015, is a centerfielder with all the raw tools that any scout would fawn over. In 2016, Lindsay’s performance represented his skillset, as he posted a .297/.418/.450 line with the Brooklyn Cyclones, including a .344 True Average*, 14.9 percent walk rate, and 19.4 percent strikeout rate. Unfortunately, since his senior year of high school, Lindsay has had considerable hamstring issues. They kept his sidelined for most of his draft year, which caused him to fall to the Mets in the second round, and they have continued to hamper him since signing with the club. Recurring injuries for a teenager could very well be the sign of, well, more hamstring injuries, or it could be something that a player as young as Lindsay, just 20, could outgrow. In the near-future, Lindsay could very easily be a guy who is being talked about as the next uber Mets prospect—or, in other words, the Amed Rosario of two years from now—or he could be a guy who is being talked about as the new Reese Havens. His performance and health in 2017, where he most likely will open in Columbia, will tell the story. — Skyler Kanfer

( * – Editor’s Note: For those of you curious, those numbers indicate that he hit about as well compared to his league as Joey Votto did compared to MLB.) 

Tomas Nido, C

The ride hasn’t always been smooth for the 2012 eighth-round pick, who prior to 2016 had never posted a minor league OPS higher than .660. However, over those first few years of his minor league career, his defensive game advanced from raw at best to his calling card. Due to his overall strong catching ability and above-average arm, he was able to open the 2016 in St. Lucie at age-22. Last season, his bat finally started catching up to his glove. In a full season in the pitching-friendly Florida State League, Nido posted a .320/.357/.459 line with seven homers and a .294 True Average in 370 PA. He more than halved his strikeout rate, going from a 25.7 percent clip in Savannah to a very respectable 11.4 percent in 2016. If he is able to combine his developed defensive skills with his newfound hitting ability, he has a chance to be a starting catcher. Nido, who was praised when he was drafted for having plus raw power, still has plenty of room to turn that power into game power. Doing that, in addition to potentially increasing upon his 5.1 percent walk rate from 2016, could make him a viable long-term answer for the Mets behind the dish. I look forward to watching Nido play in person in Binghamton starting this April. — Skyler Kanfer

Luis Guillorme, SS

If you are reading this website, you don’t need to be told that Amed Rosario or Justin Dunn or Desmond Lindsay are worth the price of admission. The implication in all these entries is that we want to see something new. There are guys here with 2016 breakout seasons that we didn’t get enough reports on. There are injured pitchers on their way back who have flashed major league stuff in the recent past. You want a sleeper or you want to know if the breakout guy is real. Prospects can change a lot from year-to-year, but I don’t expect I will be updating my priors much on Luis Guillorme. If anything, I worry a bit about his bat against Double-A velocity. But goddamn am I happy to have him within driving distance again. Rosario has the louder defensive tools and is a plus shortstop in his own right, but there is no one I would rather watch at the 6 than Guillorme. His defense has an ineffable quality to it. Immanuel Kant would suggest that’s his glove is far too functional in scope to have true aesthetic beauty, but I part ways with the German on that. Kant more famously wrote that one should “live your life as though your every act were to become a universal law.” Guillorme’s actions in the field set the bar too high for every other shortstop I’m afraid, but I am happy to see him synthesize utility and art in the infield as often as possible this year. — Jeffrey Paternostro

Tim Tebow, QB/OF?

Tim Tebow isn’t a real baseball prospect. He’s probably not going to make the majors, and if he does it’s likely to be in a cameo that he won’t have earned based on his own merits. But he is an elite athlete—a player so uniquely talented at football that he was a first-round quarterback despite a known and near-complete inability to make pro throws—and his transition to baseball will be nothing if not fascinating. Can he compete even at the lowest levels? He’s currently expected to open at Low-A Columbia, which is an appropriate level for what we suspect is his baseball ability, but a level where he’ll be about a decade older than the real prospects. Both Jeffrey and I are preparing for the circus for when Columbia comes to Lakewood early in the season. (We totally didn’t throw Tebow in down here because we were dividing a list of ten between three people and had one slot left over, no sir.) — Jarrett Seidler

Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

21. Chris Flexen, RHP, Age 21 (St. Lucie)

The least-heralded prospect the Mets added to the 40-man this offseason. Flexen is honestly about as close to a generic assembly-line good-but-not-great right-handed pitching prospect as there is, right down to the Tommy John surgery in his recent past. 2016 was his first full season back, and he was middling in High-A, but his velocity did largely come back. The Mets have done extremely, extremely well maximizing this profile into major-league success, and Flexen will start 2017 in Double-A and on the 40-man, so this could all come together quicker than you’d think. Whether or not that future is in the rotation or bullpen remains to be seen.

22. Andrew Church, RHP, Age 21 (Columbia/St. Lucie/Las Vegas)

2013’s second-round pick emerged from years of erratic and unspectacular performance in the depths of short-season ball to put up an impressive half-season split between A-ball levels. There isn’t a lot differentiating him and Flexen, honestly—touching 95, good breaking ball (curve for Flexen, slider for Church), change that needs some work, a lot of time missed with arm injuries, unclear whether either will fit in the rotation or the bullpen. Flexen being a spot higher is more that we’ve seen him pitch more and better through the years, despite the TJS in his background, but consider these guys fairly interchangeable.

23. Phil Evans, IF, Age 23 (St. Lucie/Binghamton)

Evans opened 2016 as a High-A extra infielder and ended it as a Double-A batting champion. He was originally notable as one of the first markers that the new regime would be way more aggressive in the draft, signing as 2011’s 15th-rounder for a $650,000 bonus. Of course, draft bonus pool caps came just the year after, and nobody could be particularly aggressive after that. Evans bounced around the system until this year, emerging as a hit-tool first second base option in much the same way T.J. Rivera did at Triple-A and in the majors.

The Mets exposed Evans to Thursday’s Rule 5 draft, and he’s been widely talked about as one of the more likely players to get popped. It’d be more of a loss if the system didn’t already have Wilmer Flores, Gavin Cecchini, and Rivera as young RHH utility options that can’t really play short.

24. Anthony Kay, LHP, Age 21 (DNP)

As ESPN’s Keith Law noted at the time, Kay’s usage at UConn this past spring was suspect at best. Surprise surprise, Kay’s physical with the Mets showed significant elbow damage, costing him many hundreds of thousands of dollars of bonus money. MLB, through the bonus pools, made it up to the Mets by allowing them to sign Cameron Planck. Nobody will make it up to Anthony Kay–not UConn or the NCAA or the AAC.

This ranking is pretty much a shot in the dark; Kay would’ve made the top ten if healthy, but won’t throw a meaningful professional pitch until his age-23 season in 2018. As with Marcos Molina, we’ll probably have a much better idea how the recovery is going in a year, even if he probably won’t make it back before the end of the MILB season.

25. Cameron Planck, RHP, Age 18 (DNP)

Do you like playing the lottery? Well, here’s a pair of prospects for you. The Mets went through quite a saga to acquire Planck, originally offering to cut a pre-draft deal with him for somewhere in the mid-high six figures, to be drafted in the third or fourth round. Planck turned them down. The Mets took him in the 11th as a backup plan, and ended up having a bunch of leftover pool money when Kay took a far lower bonus than expected. Planck signed for $1,000,001.

He’s yet to pitch as a professional. He throws in the mid-90s. We’re ranking him around where we’d rank a generic third-round prep arm because, well, for the purposes of rankings, he’s sort of a generic third-round prep arm. And as you see with Church upstream, it’s not always clear for a number of years which way these things are going to go.

26. Gregory Guerrero, SS, Age 17 (DSL)

Gregory Guerrero is most notable as Vladimir’s nephew, trained by Uncle Vlad at the Guerrero Academy. He signed for $1.5 million as one of the reported best players in the 2015 international class. And that’s where it about ends for now—Guerrero was adequate in enough in the Dominican Summer League, but doesn’t get the kinds of great whisperings Andres Gimenez has, at least not yet. He’s likely to be way up this list after a summer in North America, or off it entirely.

27. Nabil Crismatt, RHP, Age 21 (Brooklyn/Columbia/Binghamton)

Crismatt put up one of the more spectacular ratios in the system in 2016, striking out 74 and walking only 7 while rising from extended spring all the way to a spot start in Double-A. He’s already being used in a swingman type role and is very likely headed to a future in the bullpen. As a fastball/change guy with a fringe breaking ball, it’s easy to think Akeel Morris. He’s a few years away from any sort of major-league role, and was subsequently left off the 40, where he should be among the lower risks among the significant prospects to be taken in the Rule 5 draft.

28. Kevin McGowan, RHP, Age 24 (St. Lucie/Binghamton)

Of the prospects the Mets exposed to the Rule 5 draft, McGowan is probably most ready to contribute to a major-league team. Jeffrey and I talk quite frequently about “95-and-a-slider” guys in the context of generic perfectly acceptable relievers, and after converting to relief in 2016, McGowan is basically already there. He could be this year’s Erik Goeddel in contributing decent innings to the major-league club from off the radar, or he could be this year’s Matt Bowman in contributing decent innings to someone else’s major-league club.

29. Jake Simon, LHP, Age 19 (Kingsport)

The Mets gave Jake Simon $400,000 in the 11th round in 2015 because he was a projectable lefty, and early signs are promising. His velocity ticked up in 2016 while pitching adequately in the Appy League, a perfectly respectable assignment for his age and advancement. These profiles can come together quickly—we’ll note that this is about the same point where we’d have had Simon’s teammate Thomas Szapucki last year, and with broadly the same profile. Simon will be headed for a higher-profile assignment in either Brooklyn or Columbia in 2017.

30. Ty Kelly, IF/OF, Age 27 (Las Vegas/New York)

Ty Kelly deserves to be higher than this, as he’s not more than a shout off of T.J. Rivera, but this is what happens when your authors end up counting service days by hand and realize he is eligible at the last second. He’s a present major-league role 4, a perfectly good utility guy, and honestly most of the players behind him are future 4s, so here he is. I guess this serves as a reminder that more guys are still “prospects” than you’d think.

THREE MORE WITH A SHOT:

• P.J. Conlon, LHP, Age 22 (Columbia/St. Lucie): A small, soft-tossing lefty from Northern Ireland who has dominated the low-minors to the tune of a 1.47 career ERA. This profile often implodes in Double-A, but he could carve out a MLB future in some role.
• Paul Sewald, RHP, Age 26 (Las Vegas): The best pitcher for the 2016 Las Vegas 51s, and overqualified for a MLB long relief type role with a chance for more. Could be selected in Rule 5.
• Jeff McNeil, IF, Age 24 (Binghamton): The former golfer missed nearly all of 2016 with lower-body injuries. If his athleticism and hit tool remain intact, he has a chance at a long career as a utility player or even fringe starter. Also exposed to Rule 5.

Photo Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The Top 10

1. Steven Matz, LHP

Current Assignment: New York Mets

2016 to date: 60.1 IP, 2.39 ERA, 25% K, 5.3% BB, 54 H, 4 HR

Well this has gone well.

Before our national list came out, I argued hard for Matz over Julio Urias; I also think there was an case for Matz as the best pitching prospect in baseball over even Giolito. Being able to do it in the majors matters, and Matz had already shown flashes of that. He has taken another step forward this season–and my No. 2 starter projection on him might even end up low–although the command needs to get more consistent and he still has his own durability questions to answer. 30 starts and 180 major league innings this year will go a long way towards silencing the last concerns about the Mets southpaw.

Graduated (and pretty pretty good)

2. Amed Rosario, SS

Current Assignment: Advanced-A St. Lucie

2016 to date: 262 PA, .307/.359/.445, 7.6% BB, 13% K

Rosario is repeating the Florida State League, but is still one of the youngest players in the Sunshine State. On the preseason list I noted that his defensive tools were more advanced than his offensive ones, but the bat has begun to catch up in a big way. He’ll be in Binghamton in the second half, where I will get to see him live for the first time since 2014, but we already have big internal reports on him, and I had a scout sing his praises to me recently as well. The mothership starts our midseason top 50 list discussion soon, and Rosario will be in the conversation for the top half.

Stock Up

3. Luis Carpio, SS/2B

Current Assignment: Minor League Disabled List

Carpio was the most aggressive ranking on this list. I definitely stand by it, and I think he’s still a top-10 prospect in the system even after shoulder surgery that will keep him out for the whole year. The issue is with his throwing arm which may accelerate a move to the right side of the infield, but we won’t know that (or anything else) until he gets back on the field on the field in 2017.

Stock Down

4. Gavin Cecchini, SS 

Current Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas

2016 to date: 177 PA, .314/.375/.409, 9% BB, 12.4% K

All Cecchini has done for the past season-and-a-half is hit. Well, he’s hit enough to be a valuable up-the-middle bat in the majors at least. He tinkered with a large leg kick in A-ball, and while that did give him a little more pop into the gaps, it left him vulnerable to offspeed. When I saw him the next year in Binghamton, he was using a simple toe tap to close from a slightly open stance and a flatter overall swing plane. This has improved his contact ability, but sapped whatever gap power he might have had. Cecchini is mostly a singles hitter nowadays, so I do wonder if major league arms will challenge him more once the book gets out, cutting into his on-base numbers despite his strong strike zone control.

The defense was always supposed to be the sure thing for Cecchini. He was drafted as an advanced shortstop glove, and although no pundits promised Gold Gloves, he was seen as about a sure thing to stick at short as you will find coming out of high school. But as a pro, Cecchini has struggled with the responsibilities on the left side of the infield. The arm is short for the position, and can be scattershot at times, especially when he has to reach back for more. The range is a step short as well, and he struggles with his actions at faster game speeds. He’s played every one of his professional games at shortstop, but it is hard to see him being more than a once-a-week guy there in the majors. At second base, there probably isn’t enough offense to be a starter unless he hits .280. But there is a major league role to be found when you can hit a bit and play up-the-middle.

Stock Holding

5. Dominic Smith, 1B

Current Assignment: Double-A Binghamton

2016 to date: 241 PA, .273/.324/.386, 7.1% BB, 15.8% K

Of course you should never scout the stat line.

But sometimes there are reasons for the stat line.

Stock Down

6. Brandon Nimmo, OF 

Current Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas

2016 to date: 222 PA, .325/.403/.521, 11.3% BB, 16.7% K

Nimmo’s hot May and June has piqued Mets fans interest again, but there doesn’t appear to be a ton of real change here (unless you buy into the newest offseason swing/stance tweak). In fact, his profile really hasn’t changed in five years. Nimmo’s the Casey Stengel quip come to life; in five years he’s actualized his chance to be 23. That might sound pessimistic, but while he hasn’t figured out how to hit lefties, or added as much power as projected, Nimmo has several skills that will serve him well in the majors. He won’t kill you in centerfield, and he can get on-base and hit for average power against righties. He isn’t Jose Fernandez, and he isn’t left-handed Hunter Pence, a common comp during his first couple pro seasons, but Nimmo is potentially a useful long-side platoon bat.

I do think the risk here does get understated at times though. His overly passive approach might fall apart against major league pitching, but his first half in Vegas is a step in the right direction. Like Cecchini, Nimmo may end up a bit of a disappointment as a high first-round pick, but both should have significant major league careers.

Stock Holding

7. Desmond Lindsay, OF

Current Assignment: Extended Spring Training

I had hoped the Mets might push Lindsay to Columbia this year. It would have been an extremely aggressive assignment given the background (learning a new position, missed most of his senior season), but he impressed me in a brief cameo for Brooklyn at the end of last summer. A minor leg injury and a couple hit-by-pitches in minor league camp put the kibosh on that though. Lindsay will now head back to Coney Island, surrounded by a much, much better crop of prospects than he was last year.

Stock Holding

8. Wuilmer Becerra, OF

Current Assignment: High-A St. Lucie

2016 to date: 167 PA, .338/.370/.409, 4.2% BB, 15.6% K

Man, heck if I know.

For most of his pro career, Becerra looked like he was built right to factory specs for “right field profile:” A tall Venezuelan with a projectable body, he checked off every box: plus speed, arm, and pop. He was raw at the plate, but had a plan and a swing by the time he got to Savannah and you could easily see him growing into an everyday bat in a corner. Then he went to St. Lucie and hit like Tony Gwynn for two months.

Now it does go back further than that. The Savannah staff made some changes to his stance in 2015, and in the second half there he hit .291/.348/.355. Savannah’s home park was brutally tough on power, but that makes just 22 extra-base hits in his last 94 games and only one home run. If you want to hand wave some of the power outage, he has dealt with shoulder and back issues in 2016. I also got a positive scout quote on him recently, but there is a reason we don’t make Tony Gwynn comps.

Stock the heck if I know

9. Robert Gsellman, RHP

Current Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas

2016 to date: 69.1 IP, 17% K, 5.9% BB, 67 H, 2 HR

Gsellman added a slider this spring in major league camp, and that, along with a small bump in velocity, boosted his K-rate from 12.7% in 2015 to 17% so far in this year’s campaign. That’s still nothing to write home about, but the slider would flash plus in my April look, and the organization has done a very good job developing this type of arm recently. The future projection here hasn’t moved all that much, but he’s another step closer to the majors after his recent promotion to Vegas–although his first start didn’t go well … welcome to the PCL!–and a better bet to reach that OFP now.

Stock Up

10. Ali Sanchez, C

Current Assignment: Extended Spring Training

No real surprise here. Sanchez is a long, long way away, between being a catcher and having just come stateside to the complex last year. He could start at either Kingsport or Brooklyn, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Mets push him to the New York-Penn League to get some experience catching their new crop of arms.

Stock Holding

The five who were just interesting

Matt Reynolds, IF

Current Assignment: New York Mets

Reynolds was listed here in the winter due to the likelihood he would be able to help out the 2016 team. And he’s bounced back and forth between Vegas and Flushing this year, functioning as the 25th man and extra infield glove. He’s never hit all that much in Vegas, considering that it is Vegas, so he has fallen behind guys like Travis Taijeron, Ty Kelly, and TJ Rivera in #MetsTwitter’s ever-changing #FREE________ hierarchy. But he is younger and a better defender than those three, and is likely to have a major league job until the Mets trade for Juan Uribe in six weeks.

Raphael Ramirez, OF

Current Assignment: Extended Spring Training

Ramirez will be flanking Desmond Lindsay in Brooklyn with either Arnaldo Berrios or the next of our interesting five.

Ricardo Cespedes, OF

Current Assignment: Extended Spring Training

I think Cespedes heads to Kingsport, where it will be easier to get him centerfield reps (although I don’t see him sticking up the middle long-term). The Mets could get aggressive though and assign him to Brooklyn and Lindsay to Savannah. A lot of these decisions down to how guys look in extended Spring Training.

Gabriel Ynoa, RHP

Current Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas 51s

Ynoa’s profile is exactly the type that you’d expect to get hammered in Vegas. He’s a strike-thrower with a 55 fastball and nothing else you would expect to miss bats or even barrels. And through 12 starts in 2016, Ynoa has again only struck out 12 percent of the batters he’s faced, and has seen his walk rate creep up . Yet somehow he has bobbed and weaved his way to a sub-3.00 ERA. Despite his success so far, Ynoa’s profile hasn’t really changed. He offers a four-pitch mix, with an average change and two below-average breakers. We are well-past the point of dreaming on a major league slider or curve here, but with a lower arm slot and a low-impact delivery, it’s possible you could develop a Robles-like reliever. For now, Ynoa will continue to start as long as the smoke and mirrors act holds up. And hey, it’s beats getting shelled, however you do it.

Marcos Molina, RHP

Current Assignment: Minor League Disabled List

Molina is still a few months away from throwing off a mound after Tommy John surgery late last summer.

Five more who are interesting … now

As Toby Hyde noted when we chatted with him in Episode 5 of For All You Kids Out There, one of the notable surprises for the Mets affiliates in the first half has been … the lack of surprises. But here’s five more names of note for the second half of the minor league season:

Andrew Church, RHP

Current Assignment: High-A St. Lucie Mets

The Mets second round pick in 2013 was a bit of a head-scratcher at the time. No one had really seen him pitch much in high school.  Coming into 2016, Church had thrown just 132 innings across three season, after losing parts of the last two seasons to injuries. And all of the three were spent in short-season ball. He popped back up a few weeks ago in Columbia, sitting 90-95 and throwing a slider. After two dominant starts in the South Atlantic League, he was bumped up to St. Lucie. He is still very much an unknown quantity, but in a pitching-depleted system, a healthy Church certainly qualifies as interesting.

Chris Flexen, RHP

Current Assignment: High-A St. Lucie Mets

Flexen spent much of 2015 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, but once he got back on the field he showed plus fastball velocity and a developing curve. He could have easily made the interesting list before the season and had an argument for third-best pitching prospect in the system (not that it was a high bar). His 2016 has been uneven, but he has put together a string of strong starts recently and is still only 21. His long-term future is likely in the bullpen, given the fringy command and lack of a third pitch, but a strong second half in the Florida State League could get him top 10 consideration for 2017.

Kevin McGowan, RHP

Current Assignment: Double-A Binghamton Mets

When I saw Kevin McGowan in Brooklyn in 2013, he was a tall drink of water that could touch 95 and flashed a decent curve. After 190 innings of mediocre work as a starter in St. Lucie across 2014-15, the Mets converted McGowan to relief this season and he’s proceeded to strike out 27 percent of the batters he has faced, and walked just 3 percent. That’ll play. McGowan is still 92-95, but now uses a slider as his primary secondary. If he can keep missing bats in the upper minors, he has a real shot to be the first Franklin Pierce alum to play in the majors.

David Thompson, 3B

Current Assignment: Single-A Columbia Fireflies

I generally give guys coming straight from a long college season into the Penn League a bit of a mulligan. It’s their first time playing deep into the summer, and they are learning the specific rigors of pro baseball on the fly. That said, Thompson looked as bad as any first-or-second-day Mets college draftee I have seen on Coney Island. The bat looked slow, and he was overmatched by short-season offspeed stuff.

After a full offseason and a spring in the complex, Thompson has come out blazing in Columbia, hitting .296/.352/.487. The over-the-fence power that he showed in college hasn’t shown up in the pros yet, but 20 doubles in 50 games is a good sign. Thompson is a first baseman long term given his range and shoulder issues, and this may very well be just another example of a polished college guy whacking the Sally league, but it beats writing about another future reliever.

Ivan Wilson, OF 

Current Assignment: Single-A Columbia Fireflies

Wilson has long been a personal concern. When I saw him in Kingsport in 2014 he showed off a toolset that was the best in the system. Easy plus run and arm, you could throw a 70 on the raw if you were so inclined, and he looked like he’d be a good centerfielder down the line. If he could even hit a little, that would be a slam dunk top five prospect in the system, any system.

Just one small problem: he couldn’t hit.

I sat on him for three games that summer and he hit three absolute bombs, but he struggled mightily to pick up spin even at that level, striking out even 47 percent of the time in the Appalachian League. 2015 was marred by injuries, and I was a little surprised to see him pop up in Columbia this year. He’s gotten the K-rate down to 33 percent (which isn’t good, but better than I expected) and the tools are still in there. There still may not even be a Double-A player in here, but if you want a guy to dream on, Wilson’s given you a glimmer.

***

So with Matz’s graduation, and the lack of breakout guys, the Mets system is a bit down from where it was even in April. But four top 100 picks in this year’s draft should help replenish the thin system, and make the Brooklyn Cyclones a must-follow over the rest of the summer.

Photo Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports