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	<title>Mets &#187; Aroldis Chapman</title>
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		<title>Shall We Speak of Jeurys Familia&#8217;s Trade Value?</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/27/shall-we-speak-of-jeurys-familias-trade-value/</link>
		<comments>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/27/shall-we-speak-of-jeurys-familias-trade-value/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Jul 2016 12:24:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Andrew Mearns]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aroldis Chapman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Craig Kimbrel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jeurys Familia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ken Giles]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1721</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The trade winds are blowing as the deadline draws closer in the 2016 season. Aroldis Chapman and Drew Pomeranz are just a few of the notable names who have switched teams, and there are sure to be several more over the next week. The Mets don’t seem terribly likely to make major moves as they [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The trade winds are blowing as the deadline draws closer in the 2016 season. Aroldis Chapman and Drew Pomeranz are just a few of the notable names who have switched teams, and there are sure to be several more over the next week. The Mets don’t seem terribly likely to make major moves as they did in 2015, but at least they aren’t selling. No matter what the prospect reward might be, it’s still sometimes tough for a fanbase to admit a season is lost.</p>
<p>That being said, closer Jeurys Familia is having a terrific season out of the bullpen. He leads baseball with 35 saves, hasn’t blown one all year, and has a 2.53 ERA, 2.43 FIP, and 8.7 K/9 as well. Familia’s success is far from new, as his numbers were even better in several categories in 2014 and 2015. Reliable relievers can be elusive, but it sure seems as though the Mets have found one in the 26-year-old right-hander.</p>
<p>With a team in obvious contention, Mets GM Sandy Alderson has almost no incentive to move Familia. What if he did though? Chapman just fetched the Yankees a nice haul and Pomeranz brought 19-year-old phenom Anderson Espinoza to San Diego. Familia is under team control through 2018, a good two and a half seasons. Since Pomeranz is a starter, the comparison to his return is a little different, but recent trade packages sent for Chapman, Ken Giles, and Craig Kimbrel offer some kind of guide as to what Familia might yield in a trade.</p>
<p>On Monday afternoon, Chapman was dealt to the Cubs in exchange for Gleyber Torres, Billy McKinney, Adam Warren, and Rashad Crawford. While there is certainly debate about the merits of each player moved, few would say that this was a light price for a few months of Chapman. However, with a 108-year World Series drought and an extremely talented team that is already loaded with young players, president Theo Epstein decided to approve the trade and hope for an October payoff. Torres and McKinney have both been ranked by <em>Baseball Prospectus</em> as Top 100 prospects (Torres atop the Cubs’ system), and despite early 2016 struggles, Warren was an effective swingman for the Yankees from 2013-15.</p>
<p>The Astros offered an impressive haul to the Phillies to pray Giles away during the off-season. Sure, the Phillies were not in a position to contend anytime soon, so a 25-year-old setup man as dominant as he was a luxury. For five years of control though, the Astros paid a heavy price. Vince Velasquez had an electric arsenal and was ranked in BP’s top 100 in 2015, but he went off to Houston. So did former number one overall pick Mark Appel, a three-time top-100 arm. There were other pieces moved, including major leaguer Brett Oberholtzer, but the focus was on Velasquez and Appel.</p>
<p>The closest comparison to Familia in terms of control might be Kimbrel, oddly enough. It’s a different situation, as he is in the middle of a four-year, $42 million contract with a $13 million option for 2018, so he’s not simply arbitration-eligible like Familia. Nonetheless, when he moved to the Red Sox from San Diego in November, Boston secured him for at least two years. Manuel Margot and Javier Guerra were the big prospects in this deal. Both were ranked in the BP top 100 list prior to the 2016 season, with Margot soaring all the way up to number 14. Second baseman Carlos Asuaje went to San Diego too, and he has a .293 TAv in Triple-A El Paso. Pitcher Logan Allen isn’t looking too shaky in A-ball, either. Like Chapman, Kimbrel is among the game’s elite closers, but he certainly cost Boston plenty of intriguing players.</p>
<p>So what might two and a half years of Familia retrieve? If the Yankees dealt Andrew Miller, that would offer perhaps an even better guide, as he is also under control through 2018, albeit at $9 million per year. Of course, Miller provides so much value in his role that he actually merits the price tag. Familia is not as good as Miller, though he would cost less in arbitration.</p>
<p>A return for Familia would probably not be as strong as what the overpowering Miller would bring to the Yankees. However, a general guide might be gleaned from Chapman, Giles, and Kimbrel. Each of them produced two top-100 caliber prospects and a player with some kind of fringe MLB role (or possible future role in Asuaje and Allen’s cases). It’s a difficult task to pick and choose interested teams and offers; creating trade proposals is fruitless from a fan perspective, particularly without insider information.</p>
<p>Still, the mere idea of trading Familia is intriguing. This is a seller’s market, given the prospects flying around. There are no guarantees that he would even bring back multiple top-100 prospects, but given these recent returns on relievers, the thought is far from extreme. Teams seem to be really paying for young closers with strong reputations.</p>
<p>Outside of Dominic Smith and Amed Rosario, there are not many main attractions in the Mets’ farm system as in years’ past. Dealing Familia could lead to a real boost, but they understandably won’t do it. This is their time to shine. They already have their bullpen ace to carry them to October.</p>
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		<title>The Aroldis Chapman Precedent, and Jose Reyes</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/29/the-aroldis-chapman-precedent-and-jose-reyes/</link>
		<comments>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/29/the-aroldis-chapman-precedent-and-jose-reyes/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 29 Jun 2016 10:00:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Andrew Mearns]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aroldis Chapman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Reyes]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1335</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Rooting for sports teams can sometimes be complicated. At the end of the day, most fans are only concerned with the results on the field, and to the teams themselves, the game is just a business—entertainment to distract us from life’s inevitable end. (Credit to the “Effectively Wild” Sam Miller coffee mug.) The actual players who [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Rooting for sports teams can sometimes be complicated. At the end of the day, most fans are only concerned with the results on the field, and to the teams themselves, the game is just a business—entertainment to distract us from life’s inevitable end. (Credit to the “Effectively Wild” Sam Miller <a href="https://shop.spreadshirt.com/banishedtothepen/ew+%22distractions%22+mug-A105250795?department=4&amp;productType=31&amp;color=FFFFFF&amp;appearance=1&amp;size=29">coffee mug</a>.)</p>
<p>The actual players who make up the teams draw from a wide range of personalities. Athletes are just as human as the rest of us, and they are not immune to societal problems. Unfortunately, that doesn’t mean the teams really care. Case-in point: Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman. After an argument with a debated amount of physical contact last year, Chapman <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/news/aroldis-chapman-s-girlfriend-alleged-he--choked--her--according-to-police-report-023629095.html">fired his gun</a> eight times in his garage while in close proximity to his girlfriend and their child, with one of the bullets flying through a window.</p>
<p>A suspension under Major League Baseball’s new domestic violence policy was imminent. The Dodgers quickly <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/12/reds-trade-aroldis-chapman-dodgers.html">backed out</a> of a possible trade for him. The market for one of the game’s elite closers suddenly vanished, but that didn’t stop one team for taking advantage of an opportunity only made possible by a victim’s plight. The Yankees swooped in and acquired him for a meager prospect package, led by <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=68595">a disappointing former first round pick</a> who currently has a .620 OPS in Double-A.</p>
<p>This might be heresy to say on a Mets site, but I am a Yankees fan. I was not thrilled that they acquired Chapman from the woeful Reds. It felt gross that they used the cloud of domestic abuse to improve their team. To many fans though, it did not matter. Once Chapman accepted and served his 30-game suspension, he made his debut in pinstripes on May 9, and because he can throw baseballs hard, there was <a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/15497064/aroldis-chapman-debuts-new-york-yankees-calls-fan-reaction-incredible">no sense of unhappiness</a> at Yankee Stadium regarding his presence:</p>
<p><em>By Monday, the home fans were apparently just clamoring to see Chapman pitch&#8230; What was left of the announced crowd of 41,243 in the ninth inning &#8220;oohed&#8221; and &#8220;ahhed&#8221; as Chapman hit 100 or 101 mph on each of his first four pitches…</em></p>
<p><em>&#8220;I had people over me screaming at me to bring him into the game,&#8221; Girardi said.</em></p>
<p>Chapman’s stock has only gotten better with Yankees fans since then. Few seem bothered by the fact that the job once held by <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/16/sports/baseball/yankees-rivera-spends-his-goodbye-tour-saying-hello.html?_r=0">all-around outstanding dude</a> Mariano Rivera is now occupied by Chapman. The trend has continued of <a href="http://www.newsday.com/sports/aroldis-chapman-case-shows-that-fans-are-quick-to-forgive-1.11967036">reporters writing about</a> how fans paid more attention to his velocity than his character, with very similar language used:</p>
<p><em>&#8230;when the closer takes the mound at Yankee Stadium — as he did Friday night with a 5-3 lead and Saturday afternoon with a 2-1 lead — people no longer seem interested in the ugly incidents of the past. The only thing fans are fixated on is the scoreboard, and particularly the radar gun. It crackled Friday night with triple-digits: 101 . . . 102 . . . 103 . . . 104. As the velocity increased, the crowd responded on cue: “Ohhh. (Glove pop, pause for the number.) Ahhh.”</em></p>
<p><em>Whatever initial shock the baseball public displayed at the Yankees’ trade for Chapman in January has almost completely dissolved to awe.</em></p>
<p>People just don’t seem to be concerned with Chapman’s dodgy past. Nobody likes to be most identified by their greatest faults, but nonetheless, suppose one of your neighbors on the block was involved in a domestic incident like Chapman. If you didn’t know the person that well, you probably would not want to associate with the accused. It’s as simple as that.</p>
<p>Now, Mets fans face a situation akin to the Yankees with Chapman, as they have signed the previously suspended Jose Reyes to a minor-league deal. Bryan Grosnick already did an excellent job <a href="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/22/no-way-jose-reyes-opinion-editorial/">explaining the potential awkwardness</a> last week when the rumors of Reyes coming back to the Mets began to pick up steam. He didn’t want Reyes because he felt that no matter what contributions he could make, they would not be worth the moral cost.</p>
<p>Well, Chapman’s acceptance has already offered a glimpse of how events will unfold for the Mets in their best-case scenario of Reyes returning to form. Yankees fans didn’t even have the natural connection to Chapman that Mets fans have with Reyes. Chapman wasn’t a homegrown talent who left town; he was just an All-Star from elsewhere who came to the Bronx. Nonetheless, he’s become popular enough that his appearances are highly anticipated and the team felt comfortable <a href="https://twitter.com/pinstripealley/status/741028067326472192">marketing him</a> on a t-shirt alongside Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller (for a cool $40 a pop, no less).</p>
<p>It appears that things will probably go well for Reyes, too. He reported to the Brooklyn Cyclones over the weekend for some tune-up work. The New York fans’ reaction to Reyes taking the field? “<a href="https://twitter.com/DPLennon/status/747153120921329665">Wild applause</a>.” There are more than a few who are <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/27/sports/baseball/jose-reyes-mets.html?smid=tw-nytsports&amp;smtyp=cur&amp;_r=0">ready to cheer</a>:</p>
<p><em>Phil Alessi, who had a Mets tattoo on his neck and wore an interlocking “N.Y.” earring in his right ear and a Mets script earring in his left ear, bought 10 tickets to the game. He was also holding onto hope that Reyes would light a spark under the Mets’ moribund offense.</em></p>
<p><em>“He’s paid his dues; he’s entitled to a second chance,” Alessi said. “The Mets play with no enthusiasm. We have no running game whatsoever. The first time he goes from first to third or first to home, he’s going to bring that spark back. I’m psyched.”</em></p>
<p>Abuse culture generally seems to forgive the accused of too much, but professional athletes and other celebrities seem to get even more of a pass. It’s much easier for Joe Averagefan to throw the blinders up and only focus on what they do to bring enjoyment to their living rooms. To those who do actually care about the players on the field not being gross human beings, well, that’s where complication arises. As Craig Calcaterra <a href="http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2016/05/11/why-mlbs-domestic-violence-policy-does-not-require-a-criminal-conviction/">wrote in April</a>, it is not as though the legal system is the only valid way to determine if there was domestic violence anyway, so it’s tough to discern what really happened.</p>
<p>As someone who does give a crap about what kind of people these players are, it simply isn’t enjoyable to watch Chapman or Reyes. To those who feel the same way about Reyes that I do about Chapman, there will be melancholy. The team might profit, but it just won’t be the same to watch. The Mets will have taken advantage of an opportunity made possible by domestic abuse, just like the Yankees.</p>
<p>Sports are entertainment, but they’re also a business. The second chances for Chapman and Reyes are merely a couple more examples of this fact. Watching them play is uncomfortable, but it’s the unfortunate reality. It sure would be preferable to see New York City’s teams set a higher standard for the kinds of people they want playing for them. Alas.</p>
<p><em>Photo Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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