Las Vegas 51s (Triple-A)

Hitter: Peter Alonso

When I last wrote about Peter Alonso, he was running a .475 OBP and crushing everything in Binghamton. He, along with Jeff McNeil, looked big league ready and primed to skip Triple-A and the Pacific Coast League.

Fast forward three months and Alonso has taken his talents to Las Vegas, posting similarly gaudy numbers in a league he’s too good for while he awaits an opportunity in the majors.

A similar situation occurred down the stretch in 2017 as well with Dom Smith only playing in 49 games in what was a completely lost season for the Mets. That wasn’t enough of a sample size for New York to hand him the starting job in 2018, so they went bargain shopping and questionably signed Adrian Gonzalez. The rest is history as they say, but more importantly, the Mets seem to be making this costly mistake again.

They selected Alonso as a 22-year-old 1B/DH in the second round of the 2016 draft, a curious choice if they weren’t intent on fast-tracking him to the majors. He’s hit his way through every level of the minors and looks like a future regular at worst, but the Mets have – through unnamed sources – stated they won’t call him up in September as to avoid a 40-man roster crunch.

There’s really no other way to put it: this is an incredibly bad baseball decision, likely influenced by service time.

By keeping Alonso down and off the 40-man roster, the Mets can gain an extra year of control by waiting until the Super Two deadline passes in 2019. No one other than the people signing the paychecks likes this sort of roster manipulation, but it doesn’t even make much sense in this case. If the Mets follow through with this, Alonso won’t hit free agency until his age-31 season. Who is paying any significant amount of money to a 1B/DH on the wrong side of 30 anyway? (Angels fans if you’re reading this – it’s too late).

Due to the current situation, the Mets are likely going to bring in a veteran first baseman and trade one of Smith or Alonso. It’s a ridiculous conclusion to a problem that can so easily be solved, but being bearish on Smith’s future – here’s hoping Peter Alonso is manning first base in Flushing next season.

Pitcher: Nabil Crismatt

Crismatt had a rough go of it in his first stop at Vegas, allowing 38 earned runs in 38.2 innings of work. He made it to the fifth inning only twice in nine starts and allowed two or more earned runs in eight of nine. This was always likely to happen and anything but an unexpected outcome considering his stuff, but he’s now one step further from a September call-up. He was still striking hitters out in Vegas, but his walk numbers ballooned and his WHIP went over 2.00.

I mentioned this wasn’t an unexpected outcome because this is what happens to guys that throw 88 in the hitter’s paradise that is the PCL. The results were, uh, not good, but they don’t change the future expectation here. Crismatt still projects as a backend starter, and even though he’s not going to be Jacob deGrom or Noah Syndergaard, he’s not going to be Jason Vargas either.

Port St. Lucie Mets (Single-A)

Hitter: Blake Tiberi

The University of Louisville has a nice track record of developing hitters that succeed at the next level (and they have another one coming in 2019 in Logan Wyatt), but that hasn’t been the case for Tiberi thus far. A third-rounder two years ago, time is already running thin for Tiberi to prove he can develop into a major league contributor.

The 23-year-old battled injuries in 2017 that limited him to just five games, and his .735 OPS with Columbia wasn’t exactly inspiring this season. Regardless, the Mets moved him up a level to St. Lucie, where he figures to begin the 2019 season. He’s off to a .145/.193/.229 start in his first 22 games – and if the early returns are any indications, he’s going to struggle next year too.

Columbia Fireflies (Low-A)

Hitter: Hansel Moreno

Moreno is a long and lean 6’4,” 180-pound utility infielder who’s held his own in his first taste of full-season ball. His numbers won’t jump off the page, but the Sally is a historically pitcher-friendly league and Moreno hit in 2016 and 2017. He’s very athletic and already has a nice mix of defensive versatility, as he’s seen time at four different positions this year alone. He won’t be on any top prospect lists and shouldn’t be treated as one, but he’s a nice piece in an improving farm system.

Hitter: Zach Rheams

Rheams was a 27th round senior sign this year and the first 2018 draft pick to reach full-season ball. The 22-year-old is holding his own despite a .221 batting average as he’s avoiding strikeouts while still hitting for power. Rheams broke out in a big way for Texas Tech this past spring, hitting .341/.461/.713 with 17 long balls and as a Day Three senior sign, anything he gives the Mets is a bonus. So far, so good.

Brooklyn Cyclones (Short Season-A)

Hitter: Ross Adolph

Adolph, the Mets 12th round selection this year, won the MVP award in the NYPL All-Star Game after a 2-for-3 night that included a homer and triple. Despite being a Day Three pick, Adolph has major league tools and projects as a fourth outfielder. He’s shown well in Brooklyn and looks primed to begin 2019 with a full season affiliate (likely Columbia in the Sally). The Mets are always in need of outfield depth and Adolph will give them that as he climbs the minor league ladder. Like Hansel Moreno, Adolph isn’t a top prospect and you won’t hear his name often, but he does have major league potential.

Photo credit: Brad Penner – USA Today Sports

Short Hops

The other Gonzalez in the rotation, Harol Gonzalez, is a joy to watch, with four pitches he can throw for strikes, and good feel for all three secondaries, the best of which is a slider with late cut. The fastball tops out at 90 though, and he has trouble holding even that velocity later in starts. There is enough pitchability here to beguile A-ball hitters, but it is tough to see a major league arm here without a significant velocity and stamina jump. The mini-Pedro aesthetic is fun though…The Mets tweaked 2016 third-round pick Blake Tiberi’s swing during his first pro summer, and that may have contributed to his short-season struggles. When his swing was right, the Louisville third baseman looked like the best hitter on that Brooklyn team. Expect plenty of Daniel Murphy—pre-Kevin-Long—comps if that happens more often in 2017…Jordan Humphreys is the less-polished version of Merandy Gonzalez, with a tick less velocity and a more inconsistent curve…shortstop Milton Ramos got $750,000 as an overslot third round pick in 2014 on the strength of his shortstop glove, but he struggled at the plate in his first go-round in the South Atlantic League, and may be stuck in a middle infield rotation with Carpio and 2017 fourth rounder Michael Paez…lefty Blake Taylor, who you may remember from the Ike Davis deal, will look to prove he is healthy after a 2015 Tommy John surgery. I liked what I saw in 2014 a bit, and he’s somehow still only 21.
Photo credit: Reinhold Matay – USA Today Sports

In keeping with their current strategy of “have a superstar starting rotation,” (and shoring up their ability to trade for bats from an area of depth should the need arise) six of the Mets’ top 10 picks over the first nine rounds were pitchers.

Additionally, while most teams had begun drafting high school prospects as early as round three, the Mets’ top 10 consists entirely of college players. What this means is certainly up for interpretation, but to me, choosing players that are more stable in their physiological development and more seasoned on the field with experience in higher pressure environments can only be a positive—the Mets are more likely to get what they paid for, and the players will be strong enough to play professionally sooner. Which is good news for us fans, because these guys sound pretty freakin’ exciting:

Justin Dunn (19th overall pick)

Ranked the #22 prospect by Baseball America and piquing the interest of multiple teams when he transitioned from reliever to starter at Boston College this season, the Mets have emphasized their surprise that Dunn was still available by the time their turn came around. But the 20-year-old right-handed pitcher became the Mets first pick, prompting this adorable celebration by Dunn and his BC teammates, and marking the first time the Mets have used their number one pick on a pitcher since Matt Harvey in 2010.

Dunn, who is originally from Long Island, played shortstop at his private Connecticut high school before transitioning to pitching at Boston College. Upon joining the starting rotation this year, Dunn hit his stride, leading the Atlantic Coast Conference with a 1.49 ERA—and a 1.43 mark with 43 strikeouts in seven starts. His fastball, usually around 95 MPH, has been clocked at up to 99 MPH, and his breaking balls are in keeping with major league averages.

As an African-American, Dunn represents an increasingly rare demographic in professional baseball: currently only 14 of 449 major league pitchers are African-American, and only 8.27 percent of all major league players overall, a problem about which the Mets’ Curtis Granderson has spoken out and attempted to combat with his Grand Kids Foundation. The MLB at large has also been working to bring African-American kids back to the diamond with a variety of baseball-centric programs especially for inner-city youth, and the last five years of the draft have shown an uptick in black players, many of whom were participants the MLB’s programs.

Anthony Kay (31st overall pick)

The Mets used their other first-round pick for another pitcher from Long Island—this time a 21-year-old lefty from the University of Connecticut.

At five-foot-11, Kay is among the shorter pitching prospects the Mets have drafted, but scouting director Tommy Tanous seemed confident in Kay’s natural abilities, noting that Kay was “advanced” even as a high school player, “so it’s not like [he] had a long way to go.”

Indeed, the Mets originally drafted Kay in 2013 in the 29th round, but he decided to go to college. Given his jump to the first round of this year’s draft, it looks like the education paid off. At Connecticut he improved his velocity and changeup, with his fastball currently peaking at around 95 MPH. This season he struck out 111 batters and walked 35, and won the American Athletic League’s Pitcher of the Year award.

Kay attended the same Long Island high school as Steven Matz, and though Matz was four years his senior, the two said they were friendly with one another, both returning to visit their school during the winter and keeping in touch with their baseball coach.

Peter Alonso (64th overall pick)

The Mets started round two with power-hitting hopeful Pete Alonso, a first baseman at the University of Florida. Alonso leads his team this year with 12 home runs in 53 games; he’s also hit 55 RBIs with a season average of .368.

While some scouting reports question his versatility in the field, for his part, Alonso, who had played third base in high school before switching to first, said he learned the new position via repetition, “improving [his] footwork and changing [his] body in the weight room,” and is confident in his ability to switch back to third or play the outfield should the team need it.

But the reports also commend Alonso for his raw hitting power, which he showed off in full days before the draft. In May Alonso was hit by a pitch that broke his hand, but he returned with a vengeance, going 8-for-14 in the NCAA Regional conference, with three home runs and eight RBI.

Blake Tiberi (100th overall pick)

Tiberi has experience playing for a strong team. Hailing from the University of Louisville, considered the number two team in the NCAA, the switch-hitting third baseman hit .318/.371/.518 in his two years with the Cardinals, batting .340 with 51 RBI this year.

Tiberi was also a Cape Cod Summer League All-Star in 2015, where he ranked eighth in the league; he batted .315 and his team played the league championship series.

Michael Paez (130th overall pick)

The 21-year-old shortstop often goes unnoticed because of his size, but this year after improving his swing and hitting 15 home runs—making him second among NCAA shortstops—he’s finally getting the credit he deserves.

The MLB has him at five-foot-eight, but Paez called himself five-foot-seven in an interview with Miami Herald. Both Paez and the Mets’ Tanous point to Paez’s height as the reason why he’s been overlooked until now, but undervalued is probably good for the Mets’ checkbook, and there’s no denying Paez has fielding skills and swinging power despite his size, and good speed in part because of it. He currently leads the Big South Conference with 52 runs scored.

The Dean’s List student also clinched Coastal Carolina’s first College World Series appearance Monday night when, game tied in the bottom of the ninth and a man on second, Paez hit a double and sent the winning run home.

Colby Woodmansee (160th overall pick)

And the winner of the best last name of the bunch undoubtedly goes to this guy. Also a 21-year-old shortstop, albeit considerably taller at six-foot-three, Woodmansee has hit .280/.328/.418 during his time at Arizona State.

An Arizona native, Woodmansee grew up aspiring to ASU’s strong baseball program, and proved himself a solid, reliable player in that competitive atmosphere: Woodmansee has 91 hits with 55 RBI, seven home runs, and 36 runs scored over 86 games, having reached base in 61 of his past 72 games.

Christopher Viall (190th overall pick)

That the 20-year-old RHP says his favorite pitcher is Noah Syndergaard is predictable given the lightning Syndergaard’s thrown this season; what’s more unusual is that Viall, at six-foot-nine, has two inches on Thor.

Going 4-7 with a 4.80 ERA in his time at Stanford, Viall has (metaphorical) room to grow, but Mets scout Tyler Holmes said he was impressed by Viall’s natural coordination and skillset—he throws a fastball that routinely clocks in at 97 MPH and a 90 MPH changeup, and has the ability to repeat his delivery; Holmes calls Viall a “high-risk, high-reward pick,” so it’ll certainly be interesting to see if Viall can harness the power of his enormous arm.

Fun fact: Apparently a two-time Bachelorette contestant (and twice the runner-up, that’s gotta hurt) shares the last name. Happy Googling!

Austin McGeorge (220th overall pick)

A California native, the 21-year-old reliever has an ERA of 1.63 over his career at Long Beach State University. He’s pitched 83 innings in 63 games over three years at the school, going 4-2 with six saves.

In 2015 he made 31 appearances out of the bullpen, a team high; this year he led the Big West Conference with 33. The 2016 season was his best yet, with an ERA of 1.05 over 53 innings, keeping opposing batters at an average of .197.

Placido Torres (250th overall)

Born in the Dominican Republic and raised in New Jersey, the 23-year-old lefty led the NCAA Division II with a 0.71 ERA for Tusculum College (Tennessee). In 2016 he went 11-0 in 14 starts, and leads college baseball across all levels with 162 strikeouts.

Alongside Kay at 5’11″, Torres doesn’t quite fit the cannon-esque profile of the Mets current pitching staff, but that didn’t stop him from throwing seven complete games and four shutouts (four!) this season. I can’t help but feel a bit aflutter about this guy from the sheer numbers—it will be exciting to see what he can do when faced with some stronger bats.

Colin Holderman (280th overall)

The Mets rounded out their top 10 picks with one final pitcher, hailing from Heartland Community College in Bloomington, Illinois. At six-foot-six, Holderman sees eye-to-eye with Syndergaard, and went 8-1 with two shutouts for the Heartland Hawks this season, posting a 1.57 ERA with 92 strikeouts.

He also hit an impressive .489/.565/.831 with 13 home runs this season, giving him the third-best average in the NJCAA.

Photo Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

There’s a certain element of fantasy that fans enjoy about following prospects and dreaming about what he can turn into, if everything works out and draft night is the height of this dream. Scouts, executives and analysts facilitate their projections by comparing (comping) young players to more established big leaguers. Today’s staff post will pick up on that tendency and explore our favorite irrational comps for the Mets 2016 draft class so far.  — Toby Hyde (@tobyhyde)

Justin Dunn = Brandon Finnegan

As we discussed with Alex Nelson on this week’s For All You Kids Out There podcast, a Brandon Finnegan comp isn’t facially irrational for 19th-overall pick Justin Dunn. Sure, it looks a little weird comping a lefty to a righty, but they’re both college pitchers drafted in the late-teens with a similar stuff profile and similar questions about size and durability. Finnegan is, two years out from being drafted, in the midst of establishing himself as a mid-rotation starter in Cincinnati, and that’s not an unreasonable median sort of outcome for Dunn.

Where the irrational part comes in is that Finnegan, though drafted and projected over the longer haul as a starter, was temporarily converted to the bullpen in Double-A just a month into his pro career. A month later he was a September callup into Kansas City’s bullpen. A month after that he was one of the key relievers on a playoff team. A month after that he was pitching in the World Series. If you squint your eyes enough, you could see Justin Dunn—Boston College’s closer pumping gas in the high-90s as recently as this spring—repeating Finnegan’s path and ending up as one of the four or five best relief options available to the Mets by the time September rolls around. And, hey, if you want to be irrational about something, why not be irrational about making another World Series run? Those same Royals got there again. — Jarrett Seidler (@jaseidler)

Anthony Kay = Steven Matz

Comparing Anthony Kay–the Mets’ compensation round pick and drafted 31st overall–to Steven Matz seems all too rational. First, Kay, like Matz, is from Long Island. Their New York roots are enough to lump them together. Both are left-handed starters. Lefty pitchers require comparisons to other lefty pitchers, especially within the same organization. While the Mets drafted Kay out of the University of Connecticut, whereas they drafted Matz out of high school; however, the Mets also drafted Kay out of high school. They selected him in the 29th round of the 2013 draft, but Kay opted to attend college. Not only that, but Kay and Matz were drafted out of the same high school, Ward Melville High. Way back in October, the Hartford Courant reported that Kay “looks up to” Matz and can “always go to him for advice.” Kay also boasts a fastball and a changeup that “flash plus,” according to Christopher Crawford.

The irrationality appears only when we start envisioning Kay turning into Matz. As with just about every starting pitcher selected, there’s a very real chance Kay ends up in the bullpen. But there’s still enough to hold on to. — Eric Garcia-McKinley (@garcia_mckinley)

Peter Alonso = Wil Myers

As baseball fans, we’re just a collection of poorly put-together hopes and dreams, looking for the next thing to lift us up. So know that when I comp second-round pick Peter Alonso to Will Myers, that’s all this is–hopes and dreams and precious little fact. Peter Alonso is a college bat–a first baseman–which makes him very different than Myers at the time the Padres’ first baseman was drafted. Myers was a prep catcher-turned-outfielder where Alonso is coming off a run with one of the top college teams in Division I. Myers was all power and projection, where Alonso is a bit more well-rounded … with a lower ceiling.

No, the irrational comp I want to make isn’t based on the past but the future. And it’s based on need. Alonso is a right-handed bat with a little bit of power, and in the best possible world he turns into something like Myers in the big leagues. Right-handed power is great. First basemen who can hit are great. With Lucas Duda injured and nearing the end of his team-controlled time in Queens, and former first-rounder Dominic Smith doesn’t look like the solution long-term. With the potential to be the total package–approach, hit tool, and power–in the best possible timeline, Alonso has several productive years as part of an effective Mets lineup. Or, if your leanings are less, pie-in-the-sky, perhaps the Mets can deal him for a starting pitcher and win the World Series shortly after. — Bryan Grosnick (@bgrosnick)

Blake Tiberi = George Brett

Jim Callis called Blake Tiberi, the Mets’ third-round pick out of Louisville, “one of the best contact hitters in college baseball.”  Tiberi is listed at six feet and 200 lbs. Mets Scouting Director Tommy Tanous said that Tiberi was “probably the most consistent hitter” on the Louisville team and “the fact that he was a left-handed hitter with some power really was attractive to us.” Louisville, which finished 50-14, earned the right to host a Super Regional, but was eliminated by UC Santa Barbara on this walkoff grand slam because sports are awesome sometimes.

The criteria: we’re looking for contact-oriented, left-handed-hitting third basemen under six feet to compare Tiberi against. The pick: George Brett. The man walked 1096 times and struck out just 908 times in 21 big league seasons. Irrational? Yup. By Tiberi’s age, Brett was a big leaguer on his way to becoming an all-time great. In his age-21 season, Tiberi will likely wear 10 different silly Brooklyn Cyclones uniforms. Oh, and Tiberi and Brett both have a five-letter name that starts with the letter B and another six-letter name. Thats good enough for a draft-day comp. — Toby Hyde (@tobyhyde)

Colby Woodmansee = Michael Young

In the fifth round, the Mets selected Arizona State shortstop Colby Woodmansee. The tall, lean Woodmansee put up fine numbers in the Pac-12, although there are questions about whether he’ll have the range for shortstop. The patron saints of tall shortstops are Cal Ripken and Derek Jeter. We’ll bypass those comps and instead suggest that Woodmansee will grow up to resemble another infielder picked in the fifth round of the draft out of a west coast college, UC Santa Barbara product and six-time All-Star Michael Young.

Young’s offensive production was driven by his batting average and contact ability, but he hit enough homers as a middle infielder to be extremely valuable. He overcame early concerns about his range similar to those currently expressed about Woodmansee. In his best years, Young was a shortstop, but by his early 30s, the Rangers had moved him to third base in an All-Star season. — Toby Hyde (@tobyhyde)

Christopher Viall = Eric Hillman

When I saw that the Mets had drafted Viall, a right-handed reliever out of Stanford, in the sixth round, my immediate thought was of Eric Hillman. Perhaps it was simply because both men look preternaturally tall on the mound and the sports-centric mind has a way of remembering giants. Viall, who stands six-foot-nine and is wrapping up his junior year, has an easy-enough delivery, can pop 93 to 95 with his four-seamer and lay in his curve in the high 70s. As a sixth-rounder, the odds will be stacked against him from the start, but teams love to give players with natural, unteachable advantages (see: height, absurd) more of a chance than others. That’s what happened with Hillman, who stood six-foot-ten when he was a starter in Flushing for the ’93 season.

Here’s a truth about Hillman: He threw 145 innings in his only full-time season and kept his ERA below 4.00. That has only happened 132 times in Mets history; Hillman’s season is tied for the lowest strikeouts (60) in all those instances. (The man he tied? Don Cardwell, No. 4 starter on your ’69 Miracle Mets.) Point is, there are a lot of familiar names on this list, and yes, Eric Hillman himself is far from a sexy comp, but if Viall ever makes it onto that list as well, no one would be displeased. — Erik Malinowski (@erikmal)

Placido Torres = Placido Polanco