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	<title>Mets &#187; Colby Woodmansee</title>
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		<title>2017 Mets Affiliate Preview: St. Lucie Mets</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/11/2017-mets-affiliate-preview-st-lucie-mets/</link>
		<comments>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/11/2017-mets-affiliate-preview-st-lucie-mets/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 11 Apr 2017 10:00:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Skyler Kanfer]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mets Minors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andrew Church]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Colby Woodmansee]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Mora]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Dunn]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcos Molina]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Patrick Mazeika]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Peter Alonso]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tyler Bashlor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wuilmer Becerra]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=3550</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Following the path laid out for Matt Harvey six years ago, the Mets will be starting their first round pick, right-handed pitcher Justin Dunn (#6), in St. Lucie to begin his first professional season. Dunn—who spent his first two and a half seasons at Boston College as a relief pitcher—will look to prove that he has [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Following the path laid out for Matt Harvey six years ago, the Mets will be starting their first round pick, right-handed pitcher </span><b>Justin Dunn </b>(#6)<span style="font-weight: 400">, in St. Lucie to begin his first professional season. Dunn—who spent his first two and a half seasons at Boston College as a relief pitcher—will look to prove that he has a future in the rotation. Since this is his first full season as a starting pitcher, his innings and pitch counts will be tracked carefully throughout the season. Dunn’s four-pitch repertoire features a plus fastball that has touched 99 mph, a slider that flashes plus, and a developing changeup that could end up being a real weapon for him down the road. Given his smallish frame and past success out of the bullpen, there will be temptation to fast track the 21-year-old to the majors this season and hope he’s the next young flame-throwing relief star, but the Mets seem to be opting for a more conservative route with Dunn. However, if he performs well in St. Lucie to open the season, it might not be long until he is promoted to Binghamton and even to the majors. A September call-up, while not something to bet on at the moment, is certainly not far-fetched or out of the question. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Joining Justin Dunn in the St. Lucie rotation to open the season—and hopefully in Binghamton before the year is over—is </span><b>Marcos Molina </b>(#15)<span style="font-weight: 400">. Like Dunn, the 22-year-old pitcher comes with questions as to his ability to remain as a starter, yet those doubts are even louder with Molina. While athletic with plus stuff, Molina’s mechanics are far from ideal as he makes his return from Tommy John surgery. After sitting in the upper 80s with his fastball on the minor league backfields at the end of spring training, Molina has found his way back onto the disabled list to open the season. The complete lack of involvement of his lower body in his delivery puts an exorbitant amount of stress on his arm, which is unlikely to be sustainable for a starting pitcher. While his mechanics are not ideal for a relief pitcher—any kind of pitcher, really—shorter stints out of the pen would put less stress on Molina’s arm and allow him to sit closer to his peak velocity. While Molina is older now than this comp was then, Roberto Osuna’s 2015 promotion from a single-A starting pitcher who had undergone Tommy John surgery to a late-inning role in a major league bullpen is not out of the question for Molina. While that is obviously not what the Mets are planning to do with him at the moment, moving Molina to the bullpen sooner rather than later might make the most sense for all parties. With his stuff, Molina could legitimately pitch out of a major league bullpen before the 2017 season is finished. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Best known as the “non-elite prospect” the Mets acquired in the R.A. Dickey trade in 2012, the now-22-year-old </span><b>Wuilmer Becerra </b>(#10)<span style="font-weight: 400"> has made the Baseball Prospectus Mets Top Ten two seasons running. Becerra, who underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in July, was protected from the Rule 5 Draft this winter despite not yet being ready to play the field to open the 2017 season. As the projected everyday designated hitter for the St. Lucie Mets for the first stretch of the season, Becerra will look to combine his above-average raw power with the plus hitting ability he has flashed in his recent seasons. While dealing with the shoulder injury during the first half of last season, Becerra hit only a single home run for St. Lucie in 2016, which isn’t going to work for a major league right fielder, his usual defensive home. However, if Becerra is able to put the whole package together, the tools are loud enough for him to project as an everyday right fielder in the majors. But even beyond the injury concerns, it’s a package with plenty of risk at the moment. A healthy and productive season that ends in the upper minors, highlighted by an increase in in-game power, could propel Becerra further up the Mets prospect lists and potentially onto global prospect lists next winter. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The Mets&#8217; 2015 eighth-round pick out of Stetson University, </span><b>Patrick Mazeika </b><span style="font-weight: 400">is a bat-first prospect whose ultimate future value is going to be determined by his defensive home. Mazeika, who has walked almost as many times as he’s struck out so far in his pro career—and gets an additional OBP boost from his Brandon Guyer-esque attraction to pitched baseballs—also offers a potential major-league-quality hit tool. If he is able to stick behind the plate, that is a good offensive starting point for a major league catcher. If he is forced to move off the position, which is a legitimate possibility given his current below-average glove and 6’3&#8243; frame, he veers dangerously close to non-prospect status. His relative lack of power and line drive approach would not play well at first base—a position he has played some in his career—and the bat isn’t much more attractive in a corner outfield spot; he may not have the defensive chops for that anyway. His most realistic path to the major leagues is as a bat-first catcher whose high OBP makes up for his mediocre home run power and lackluster defense behind the plate.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">2016 second-round pick </span><b>Peter Alonso </b>(#19),<span style="font-weight: 400"> however, does not</span><i><span style="font-weight: 400"> lack</span></i><span style="font-weight: 400"> for power. Alonso has the best raw pop in the entire Mets minor league system. A right-handed hitting and fielding first baseman, he represents a bit of a rare breed as a prospect. Rarely are right-handed hitting first basemen considered to be prospects worthy of a high draft pick and the $909,200 signing bonus that Alonso received. Given that profile, his prospect status and baseball future relies solely on his bat and his ability to reach into his 70 raw power in games. After jumping over the South Atlantic League to open his first full professional season, Alonso will come to the Florida State League with the expectation that his bat will carry him into the upper minors and eventually to the major leagues. If he is able to adjust to better pitching than he saw in the SEC and shorten his swing from what he has shown to this past, he has a chance to develop into a middle-of-the-order bat sooner rather than later. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">After selecting RHP </span><b>Andrew Church</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> (#21)<strong> </strong>with the 48th pick in the 2013 draft, the early returns for the Mets were less than stellar. At the end of the 2015 season, the now-21-year-old Church had yet to get out of short-season ball, and only struck out 75 batters in 132 professional innings.  2016 was a different story. Church emerged from extended spring training on May 24 to strike out nine batters in five innings for Columbia in his 2016 debut. For the season, he started 15 games, posting a 2.92 ERA and an improved, yet still pedestrian, 20.2% K-rate. Church, whose fastball touches as high as the mid 90s and slider flashes plus, will look to build on his 2016 campaign with an aggressive Double-A assignment. As Jarrett Seidler wrote recently, this season will be Church’s last before he is eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, so his performance—or lack thereof—in 2017 should give us a lot more clarity on his major league future.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Yet another 2016 draft pick making the jump from the Brooklyn Cyclones to the St. Lucie Mets in 2017 is fifth-round pick </span><b>Colby Woodmansee</b><span style="font-weight: 400">. Woodmansee—who, given his tall frame, is likely to eventually move off of shortstop—skips over the South Atlantic League despite a mediocre 2016 season in his time at both the collegiate and professional levels. Following a strong sophomore year at Arizona State, Woodmansee was penciled in as a first or second round draft pick. However, a lack of improvement in his junior season allowed him to slip to the Mets in the fifth round, where they are hoping he can show again why he was considered by some to be a first round talent just a few months before the draft&#8230;St. Lucie’s lineup will also feature the return of 23-year-old </span><b>John Mora</b><span style="font-weight: 400">. Mora, who got some burn in major league spring training, has limited power and average-at-best tools elsewhere. If he doesn’t end this season in Binghamton or Vegas, his chances of making the major leagues down the road can be considered minimal at best&#8230;the bullpen will feature </span><b>Tyler Bashlor</b><span style="font-weight: 400">, who received a well-over-slot $550,000 signing bonus after being selected in the 11th round in 2013. Bashlor boasts a fastball that can touch 98 mph and a developing breaking ball. He has a chance to rise quickly to the majors if he is able to stay healthy and keep his walks under control. </span></p>
<p><em>Photo Credit: Reinhold Matay &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Notes from the Field: The Brooklyn Cyclones</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/30/notes-from-the-field-the-brooklyn-cyclones-mets-prospects/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 30 Jun 2016 13:39:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jeffrey Paternostro]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Mets Minors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ali Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Colby Woodmansee]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Harol Gonzalez]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1324</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Harol Gonzalez, RHP Last time I saw Harol Gonzalez pitch, he went 25 up, 25 down for Kingsport. This time he went 6.3 without allowing a hit. Maybe it&#8217;s me. The stuff didn&#8217;t look as sharp this summer though. He&#8217;s filled out a bit and looks closer to his listed 6&#8217;0&#8243;, 160. It&#8217;s still a [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><b>Harol Gonzalez, RHP</b></h3>
<p>Last time I saw Harol Gonzalez pitch, he went 25 up, 25 down for Kingsport. This time he went 6.3 without allowing a hit. Maybe it&#8217;s me. The stuff didn&#8217;t look as sharp this summer though. He&#8217;s filled out a bit and looks closer to his listed 6&#8217;0&#8243;, 160. It&#8217;s still a very slender frame with narrow shoulders and thin legs. He could probably carry 20 more pounds and that might help with his stamina in games, but I don&#8217;t really see him adding that much to his frame at this point. The mechanics are still the same, a short leg lift, short stride, turns his front side to create some torque and deception. He&#8217;s very upright when he lands, and it&#8217;s an upper-body-heavy delivery. It reminds me a bit of Marcos Molina at times, but it&#8217;s not as vstiff and violent an arm action. He&#8217;s been able to repeat it well in the past, though he struggled with his command of all five pitches in this outing.</p>
<p>The fastball still sits in the upper 80s early on in his starts, which he can sink and run armside from his three-quarters slot. At his best he can work all four quadrants of the zone and elevate with late life, but his command of the fastball was shaky in this outing, and he was nibbling even in hitter&#8217;s counts. I had hoped if he added some strength he might sit in the low 90s, but it just hasn&#8217;t happened for him so far, and at 21, you wonder if it ever will.</p>
<p>Last year, Gonzalez featured a slurvy breaking ball. It was effective against Appy League batters and it would flash as a tighter slider at times. This year he is throwing both a slider and a slower curve. The slider was a mess early, but he snapped off some nice ones later in the outing. It&#8217;s not a true downer from that armslot, but it will show good gloveside tilt at times and is a potentially average offering with more consistency. The slow curve is still a work in progress. He would look like a good 11-5 downer in warm-ups, but when he tried to throw it in games it tended to flatten out and show early in game action. It seems like a pitch he is still figuring out how to throw, but there is some potential there, and he might need both breaking balls to give hitters some different looks given the overall profile.</p>
<p>The change-up is the party piece here. Gonzalez actually throws two of them. A fader at 79-81, and a split-change in the low 80s. He struggled to command it throughout the start and with the limited velo separation, he didn&#8217;t miss many bats as you&#8217;d think at this level, although he got some weak groundouts on the sinking version. Another potentially average major league offering, maybe a bit more for the split if you see it on a better day.</p>
<p>This is a tough profile. You don&#8217;t really see the stuff playing up in short bursts, and the package is more than the sum of its parts due to his ability to throw five different pitches in any count. He is more a pitchability than stuff guy, but the stuff just isn&#8217;t quite good enough to see a major league arm without a velocity bump that I am not confident is coming. He&#8217;s been passed as a prospect by his fellow Gonzalez at this point.</p>
<h3><b style="line-height: 1.5">Ali Sanchez, C</b></h3>
<p>Sanchez was No. 10 on our preseason Mets Prospect List and nothing I saw last week makes me regret that somewhat ambitious ranking. He&#8217;s been banged up early in the NYPL season, and a foul tip off of his throwing hand earlier in the week limited him to designated hitting in this look. I saw him catch in the complex last year, and while I will want an updated look later in the summer once he is healthy, I am confident in his ability to catch long term despite a below-average throwing arm. Sanchez had his right hand and wrist taped, but it did not appear to negatively affect him at the plate. I love his swing. I don’t know how much home run power he eventually develops, as the swing plane is pretty flat and he is already built like, well, a catcher, but I’m confident he will hit. The swing is simple, he is very good at hitting the ball where it is, working up-the-middle and opposite field especially well. And Sanchez gets more carry on the ball in games than you would think given the swing; for example, he flicked a double over the head of the right fielder in this look. Catcher development is rarely linear, and Sanchez is a long way away from having an impact in the majors, but despite the Mets system being deeper than it was 12 months ago, he is still easily a top-10 prospect for me.</p>
<h3><b>Colby Woodmansee, SS</b></h3>
<p>The Mets fifth-round pick out of Arizona State is a polished college bat that is already too good for the Penn League. All series he made a lot of hard contact off Connecticut arms, but consider that he was seeing a lot of mid-to-high-80s fastballs, and overall a level of pitching not that much better than the Pac-12. He came out of ASU with some good reports on his pop, and he is stronger than you would think, given his lean, almost wiry frame, but I don&#8217;t know how much over-the-fence power you&#8217;ll see with him swinging wood now.</p>
<p>The same amateur reports were mixed on his defensive future. He&#8217;s polished there too, good hands and actions. He&#8217;s a below-average runner, and I just didn&#8217;t see the first step quickness or overall range to stick at shortstop long term. This is the Mets, mind you, so he will probably play there for a while, but the athletic tools are just a bit short in all aspects. The arm is solid-average, and he could handle either second or third, but that will put pressure on the bat. He should move quickly through A-ball (and should really be in full-season ball right now, but Brooklyn must win), and we&#8217;ll have a better idea of what he is when he sees Double-A arms.</p>
<h3><b style="line-height: 1.5">Blake Tiberi, 3B</b></h3>
<p>The Mets scheduled Tiberi’s debut for the day after the Cyclones left town. These are the things that happen to the itinerant prospect writer. I did get to see him in a couple batting practice sessions, and for the most part he looked like a guy that had played a full baseball season already. He appeared a bit gassed, the timing was off, and he was popping balls into the cage. But every third swing or so he looked like the best hitter on the field. The second day of BP he got into a bit better rhythm. He keeps his hands low when he loads, driving through the swing with his front shoulder and hip. There is plenty of bat speed here and a nice sound when he squares the ball. It’s a line drive swing without much in the way of loft, so you do wonder about the power ceiling. There isn’t much projection left here either, Tiberi has filled out and has an almost square frame. My podcast co-host has been fishing for Daniel Murphy comps, but it’s a very different body and swing, even if I get the hit-over-power,  college-third-baseman resemblance Anyway, I don’t want to make grand pronouncements off a couple BP sessions, but what I saw from the Mets third-round pick, I liked.</p>
<h3><b style="line-height: 1.5">Bryce Beeler, RHP</b></h3>
<p>Beeler, the Mets 19th-round pick in 2014, is back on the field after missing all of last season due to Tommy John surgery. He got promoted to Columbia Monday, and he is well-equipped to have success at that level. He pitches with an easy tempo, although there is some late torque and effort in the delivery that makes it difficult for him to spot the fastball arm side. He’s a four-pitch reliever, featuring a fastball an upper 80s fastball that touched 91, a slider with short, late downer action (80-82), a slurvy curveball (75-79), and a decent change-up (79-82). Beeler mixes his pitches well, and while nothing here projects as above-average. He works out of the stretch now, but  if the Mets wanted to try him as a starter once he gets more post-TJ innings under his belt, I think he would have some success in A-ball. He reminds me a bit of Logan Verrett, but the fastball and slider aren’t quite as good as Verrett’s, so the OFP here isn’t as good either.</p>
<h3><b>Nick Sergakis, IF</b></h3>
<p>Sergakis was the Mets 23rd-round pick in this year&#8217;s draft. He is a 23-year old senior sign. In a mild upset, his listed height and weight of 5&#8217;8” and 175 pounds actually looked close to accurate. He played third base in college and second base in the two games I saw him. He likely gets displaced from regular playing time once the Mets are able to sign Michael Paez, their fourth round pick. But man, is Sergakis a fun little player. He has surprising pop. He put on the best show in batting practice of any of the Cyclones, and Darryl Knight and Brandon Brosher are no slouches in the raw power department. If you throw him something above the waist, he will hit it hard.</p>
<p>Otherwise the profile plays about how you would expect based on the first three sentences of this blurb. If you put his name up for an internet vote, Grindy McGrinderson would be the runaway winner. He got plunked twice, aggressively tagged up from second on a fly to left, and then scored on a shorter fly to left. He was sub-4 on a push bunt for a base hit. He&#8217;ll do enough of the little things, and hit enough dingers that I will look up in three years and he will be on somebody&#8217;s Triple-A roster without my writing anything else about him in the interim.</p>
<p><em>Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilis- USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Meet The Mets: The First 10 Draft Picks of 2016</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/15/meet-the-mets-the-first-10-draft-picks-of-2016/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 15 Jun 2016 13:55:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sara Novic]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anthony Kay]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Blake Tiberi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Christopher Viall]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Colby Woodmansee]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Colin Holderman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Dunn]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Paez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Peter Alonso]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Placido Torres]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1154</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[These days, with the Mets’ lineup increasingly like the surface of the sun—I can’t look straight at it without enduring great pain—I found myself looking instead to this year’s draft with extra anticipation. Sure it’ll be a long time before any of the drafted prospects see the lights at Citi Field, but the promising crop [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>These days, with the Mets’ lineup increasingly like the surface of the sun—I can’t look straight at it without enduring great pain—I found myself looking instead to this year’s draft with extra anticipation. Sure it’ll be a long time before any of the drafted prospects see the lights at Citi Field, but the promising crop of young talent Mets’ scouts pulled in does make me feel a bit better. That said, for the next few weeks I’ll be covering all the Mets’ 2016 draft picks, starting with the top 10 today:</p>
<p>In keeping with their current strategy of “have a superstar starting rotation,” (and shoring up their ability to trade for bats from an area of depth should the need arise) six of the Mets’ top 10 picks over the first nine rounds were pitchers.</p>
<p>Additionally, while most teams had begun drafting high school prospects as early as round three, the Mets’ top 10 consists entirely of college players. What this means is certainly up for interpretation, but to me, choosing players that are more stable in their physiological development and more seasoned on the field with experience in higher pressure environments can only be a positive—the Mets are more likely to get what they paid for, and the players will be strong enough to play professionally sooner. Which is good news for us fans, because these guys sound pretty freakin’ exciting:</p>
<p><strong>Justin Dunn </strong>(19th overall pick)</p>
<p>Ranked the #22 prospect by <em>Baseball America </em>and piquing the interest of multiple teams when he transitioned from reliever to starter at Boston College this season, the Mets have emphasized their <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/harper-mets-bucking-trend-drafting-black-pitcher-article-1.2669968">surprise that Dunn was still available</a> by the time their turn came around. But the 20-year-old right-handed pitcher became the Mets first pick, <a href="https://youtu.be/w9iftpHmFeQ">prompting this adorable celebration by Dunn and his BC teammates</a>, and marking the first time the Mets have used their number one pick on a pitcher since Matt Harvey in 2010.</p>
<p>Dunn, who is originally from Long Island, played shortstop at his private Connecticut high school before transitioning to pitching at Boston College. Upon joining the starting rotation this year, Dunn hit his stride, <a href="http://www.nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2016/06/boston_college_coach_explains_why_mets_fans_will_l.html">leading the Atlantic Coast Conference with a 1.49 ERA</a>—and a 1.43 mark with 43 strikeouts in seven starts. His fastball, <a href="http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=draft">usually around 95 MPH, has been clocked at up to 99 MPH</a>, and his breaking balls are in keeping with major league averages.</p>
<p>As an African-American, Dunn represents an increasingly rare demographic in professional baseball: currently only <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/harper-mets-bucking-trend-drafting-black-pitcher-article-1.2669968">14 of 449 major league pitchers are African-American</a>, and only 8.27 percent of all major league players overall, a problem about which the <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/04/15/curtis-granderson_n_7071684.html">Mets’ Curtis Granderson has spoken out</a> and attempted to combat with his <a href="http://www.thegrandkidsfoundation.org/#about">Grand Kids Foundation</a>. The MLB at large has also been working to bring African-American kids back to the diamond with a variety of baseball-centric programs especially for inner-city youth, and the last five years of the draft have shown an uptick in black players, many of whom were participants the MLB’s programs.</p>
<p><strong>Anthony Kay </strong>(31st overall pick)</p>
<p>The Mets used their other first-round pick for another pitcher from Long Island—this time a 21-year-old lefty from the University of Connecticut.</p>
<p>At five-foot-11, Kay is among the shorter pitching prospects the Mets have drafted, but scouting director <a href="http://www.nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2016/06/mlb_draft_anthony_kay_converted_yankees_fan_and_st.html">Tommy Tanous seemed confident in Kay’s natural abilities</a>, noting that Kay was “advanced” even as a high school player, “so it’s not like [he] had a long way to go.”</p>
<p>Indeed, the Mets originally drafted Kay in 2013 in the 29th round, but he decided to go to college. Given his jump to the first round of this year’s draft, it looks like the education paid off. At Connecticut he improved his velocity and changeup, with his <a href="http://m.mlb.com/draft/tracker#!ft=round&amp;fv=1">fastball currently peaking at around 95 MPH</a>. This season he struck out <a href="http://www.nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2016/06/mlb_draft_recapping_all_3_of_the_mets_picks_from_d.html#6">111 batters and walked 35</a>, and won the American Athletic League’s Pitcher of the Year award.</p>
<p>Kay attended the <a href="http://www.nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2016/06/mlb_draft_anthony_kay_converted_yankees_fan_and_st.html">same Long Island high school as Steven Matz</a>, and though Matz was four years his senior, the two said they were friendly with one another, both returning to visit their school during the winter and keeping in touch with their baseball coach.</p>
<p><strong>Peter Alonso </strong>(64th overall pick)</p>
<p>The Mets started round two with power-hitting hopeful Pete Alonso, a first baseman at the University of Florida. Alonso leads his team this year with 12 home runs in 53 games; he’s also hit 55 RBIs with a season average of .368.</p>
<p>While some <a href="http://m.mlb.com/draft/tracker#!ft=round&amp;fv=3">scouting reports question his versatility</a> in the field, for his part, Alonso, who had played third base in high school before switching to first, said he learned the new position via repetition, <a href="http://www.nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2016/06/mets_no_2_pick_peter_alonso_is_a_slugger_with_big.html">“improving [his] footwork and changing [his] body in the weight room,”</a> and is confident in his ability to switch back to third or play the outfield should the team need it.</p>
<p>But the reports also commend Alonso for his raw hitting power, which he showed off in full days before the draft. In May Alonso was <a href="http://www.gatorsports.com/article/20160514/articles/160519840">hit by a pitch that broke his hand</a>, but he returned with a vengeance, going 8-for-14 in the NCAA Regional conference, with three home runs and eight RBI.</p>
<p><strong>Blake Tiberi</strong> (100th overall pick)</p>
<p>Tiberi has experience playing for a strong team. Hailing from the University of Louisville, considered the number two team in the NCAA, the switch-hitting third baseman <a href="http://www.gocards.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=22">hit .318/.371/.518</a> in his two years with the Cardinals, batting .340 with 51 RBI this year.</p>
<p>Tiberi was also a Cape Cod Summer League All-Star in 2015, where he ranked eighth in the league; he batted .315 and his team played the league championship series.</p>
<p><strong>Michael</strong> <strong>Paez</strong> (130th overall pick)</p>
<p>The 21-year-old shortstop often goes unnoticed because of his size, but this year after improving his swing and hitting 15 home runs—making him second among NCAA shortstops—he’s finally getting the credit he deserves.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://m.mlb.com/draft/tracker/#!ft=round&amp;fv=6">MLB has him at five-foot-eight</a>, but Paez called himself five-foot-seven in <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/college/state-college-sports/article83252187.html">an interview with <em>Miami Herald</em></a><em>. </em>Both Paez and the Mets’ Tanous point to Paez’s height as the reason why he’s been overlooked until now, but undervalued is probably good for the Mets’ checkbook, and there’s no denying Paez has fielding skills and swinging power despite his size, and good speed in part because of it. He currently leads the Big South Conference with 52 runs scored.</p>
<p>The Dean’s List student also clinched Coastal Carolina’s first College World Series appearance Monday night when, game tied in the bottom of the ninth and a man on second, Paez hit a double and sent the winning run home.</p>
<p><strong>Colby Woodmansee </strong>(160th<span style="font-size: small"> </span>overall pick)</p>
<p>And the winner of the best last name of the bunch undoubtedly goes to this guy. Also a 21-year-old shortstop, albeit considerably taller at six-foot-three, Woodmansee has hit <a href="http://www.thesundevils.com/ViewArticle.dbml?ATCLID=209278330">.280/.328/.418</a> during his time at Arizona State.</p>
<p>An Arizona native, Woodmansee grew up aspiring to ASU’s strong baseball program, and proved himself a solid, reliable player in that competitive atmosphere: Woodmansee has 91 hits with 55 RBI, seven home runs, and 36 runs scored over 86 games, having reached base in 61 of his past 72 games.</p>
<p><strong>Christopher Viall</strong> (190th overall pick)</p>
<p>That the 20-year-old RHP says his favorite pitcher is Noah Syndergaard is predictable given the lightning Syndergaard’s thrown this season; what’s more unusual is that Viall, at six-foot-nine, has two inches on Thor.</p>
<p>Going <a href="http://gostanford.com/fls/30600/Baseball/HISTCARR.HTM?&amp;DB_OEM_ID=30600#Viall__C">4-7 with a 4.80 ERA in his time at Stanford</a>, Viall has (metaphorical) room to grow, but <a href="http://www.bustle.com/articles/134597-what-is-nick-viall-doing-now-the-bachelorette-star-is-getting-back-to-real-life">Mets scout Tyler Holmes said he was impressed by Viall’s natural coordination and skillset</a>—he throws a fastball that routinely clocks in at 97 MPH and a 90 MPH changeup, and has the ability to repeat his delivery; Holmes calls Viall a “high-risk, high-reward pick,” so it’ll certainly be interesting to see if Viall can harness the power of his enormous arm.</p>
<p>Fun fact: Apparently a <a href="http://www.bustle.com/articles/134597-what-is-nick-viall-doing-now-the-bachelorette-star-is-getting-back-to-real-life">two-time <em>Bachelorette </em>contestant</a> (and twice the runner-up, that’s gotta hurt) shares the last name. Happy Googling!</p>
<p><strong>Austin McGeorge</strong> (220th overall pick)</p>
<p>A California native, the 21-year-old reliever has an <a href="http://www.longbeachstate.com/sports/m-basebl/mtt/austin_mcgeorge_872850.html">ERA of 1.63</a> over his career at Long Beach State University. He’s pitched 83 innings in 63 games over three years at the school, going 4-2 with six saves.</p>
<p>In 2015 he made 31 appearances out of the bullpen, a team high; this year he <a href="http://www.longbeachstate.com/sports/m-basebl/spec-rel/061016aab.html">led the Big West Conference with 33</a>. The 2016 season was his best yet, with an ERA of 1.05 over 53 innings, keeping opposing batters at an average of .197.</p>
<p><strong>Placido Torres </strong>(250th overall)</p>
<p>Born in the Dominican Republic and raised in New Jersey, the 23-year-old lefty led the NCAA Division II with a 0.71 ERA for Tusculum College (Tennessee). In <a href="http://www.tusculumpioneers.com/stats/bb16/teamgbg.htm">2016 he went 11-0</a> in 14 starts, and <a href="http://m.mlb.com/news/article/183341328/mets-draft-pick-placido-torres-dominates-d-ii">leads college baseball across all levels with 162 strikeouts</a>.</p>
<p>Alongside Kay at 5’11&#8243;, Torres doesn’t quite fit the cannon-esque profile of the Mets current pitching staff, but that didn’t stop him from throwing seven complete games and four shutouts (<em>four!</em>) this season. I can’t help but feel a bit aflutter about this guy from the sheer numbers—it will be exciting to see what he can do when faced with some stronger bats.</p>
<p><strong>Colin Holderman</strong> (280th overall)</p>
<p>The Mets rounded out their top 10 picks with one final pitcher, hailing from Heartland Community College in Bloomington, Illinois. At six-foot-six, Holderman sees eye-to-eye with Syndergaard, and <a href="http://www.njcaa.org/sports/bsb/2015-16/div2/players/colinholdermanuwih">went 8-1 with two shutouts</a> for the Heartland Hawks this season, posting a 1.57 ERA with 92 strikeouts.</p>
<p>He also hit an impressive <a href="http://www.njcaa.org/sports/bsb/2015-16/div2/players/colinholdermanuwih?view=splits&amp;pos=h">.489/.565/.831 with 13 home runs</a> this season, giving him the third-best average in the NJCAA.</p>
<p><em>Photo Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Completely Irrational Comps for 2016 Mets Draft Picks</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/14/completely-irrational-comps-for-2016-mets-draft-picks/</link>
		<comments>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/14/completely-irrational-comps-for-2016-mets-draft-picks/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Jun 2016 10:05:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Mets Staff]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lineup Card]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anthony Kay]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Blake Tiberi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Christopher Viall]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Colby Woodmansee]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Dunn]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Peter Alonso]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Placido Torres]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1111</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Draft night scouting reports are adorable. Teams tell the media what they liked about each player. Every breaking ball is plus, or projectable. No player is overweight, instead, guys are described as &#8220;large&#8221; or the analyst uses some other appropriate simile. Every swing will work: there are no hitches, weird hand paths, poorly timed or directed [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Draft night scouting reports are adorable. Teams tell the media what they liked about each player. Every breaking ball is plus, or projectable. No player is overweight, instead, guys are described as &#8220;large&#8221; or the analyst uses some other appropriate simile. Every swing will work: there are no hitches, weird hand paths, poorly timed or directed weight transfers.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s a certain element of fantasy that fans enjoy about following prospects and dreaming about what he can turn into, if <em>everything works out </em>and draft night is the height of this dream. <span style="line-height: 1.5">Scouts, executives and analysts facilitate their projections by comparing (comping) young players to more established big leaguers. Today&#8217;s staff post will pick up on that tendency and explore our favorite irrational comps for the Mets 2016 draft class so far.  &#8212; Toby Hyde (<a href="http://twitter.com/tobyhyde" target="_blank">@tobyhyde</a>)</span></p>
<h3>Justin Dunn = Brandon Finnegan</h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">As we discussed with Alex Nelson on this week’s </span><a href="http://www.blogtalkradio.com/forallyoukidsoutthere/2016/06/13/episode-6-new-draft-who-dis"><i><span style="font-weight: 400">For All You Kids Out There</span></i><span style="font-weight: 400"> podcast</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400">, a Brandon Finnegan comp isn’t facially irrational for 19th-overall pick Justin Dunn. Sure, it </span><i><span style="font-weight: 400">looks</span></i><span style="font-weight: 400"> a little weird comping a lefty to a righty, but they’re both college pitchers drafted in the late-teens with a similar stuff profile and similar questions about size and durability. Finnegan is, two years out from being drafted, in the midst of establishing himself as a mid-rotation starter in Cincinnati, and that’s not an unreasonable median sort of outcome for Dunn.</span></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">Where the irrational part comes in is that Finnegan, though drafted and projected over the longer haul as a starter, was temporarily converted to the bullpen in Double-A just a month into his pro career. A month later he was a September callup into Kansas City’s bullpen. A month after that he was one of the key relievers on a playoff team. A month after that he was pitching in the World Series. If you squint your eyes enough, you could see Justin Dunn—Boston College’s closer pumping gas in the high-90s as recently as this spring—repeating Finnegan’s path and ending up as one of the four or five best relief options available to the Mets by the time September rolls around. And, hey, if you want to be irrational about something, why not be irrational about making another World Series run? Those same Royals got there again. &#8212; Jarrett Seidler (<a href="https://twitter.com/jaseidler" target="_blank">@jaseidler</a>)</span></strong></p>
<h3>Anthony Kay = Steven Matz</h3>
<p>Comparing Anthony Kay–the Mets’ compensation round pick and drafted 31<span style="font-size: small">st</span> overall–to Steven Matz seems all too rational. First, Kay, like Matz, is from Long Island. Their New York roots are enough to lump them together. Both are left-handed starters. Lefty pitchers require comparisons to other lefty pitchers, especially within the same organization. While the Mets drafted Kay out of the University of Connecticut, whereas they drafted Matz out of high school; however, the Mets also drafted Kay out of high school. They selected him in the 29th round of the 2013 draft, but Kay opted to attend college. Not only that, but Kay and Matz were drafted out of the same high school, Ward Melville High. Way back in October, the <a href="http://www.courant.com/sports/baseball/hc-notebook-mets-royals-world-series-1031-20151030-story.html">Hartford <em>Courant</em> reported</a> that Kay “looks up to” Matz and can “always go to him for advice.” Kay also boasts a fastball and a changeup that “flash plus,” <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=29480">according to Christopher Crawford</a>.</p>
<p>The irrationality appears only when we start envisioning Kay turning into Matz. As with just about every starting pitcher selected, there’s a very real chance Kay ends up in the bullpen. But there’s still enough to hold on to. &#8212; Eric Garcia-McKinley (<a href="https://twitter.com/garcia_mckinley" target="_blank">@garcia_mckinley</a>)</p>
<h3>Peter Alonso = Wil Myers</h3>
<p>As baseball fans, we&#8217;re just a collection of poorly put-together hopes and dreams, looking for the next thing to lift us up. So know that when I comp second-round pick Peter Alonso to Will Myers, that&#8217;s all this is–hopes and dreams and precious little fact. Peter Alonso is a college bat–a first baseman–which makes him very different than Myers at the time the Padres&#8217; first baseman was drafted. Myers was a prep catcher-turned-outfielder where Alonso is coming off a run with one of the top college teams in Division I. Myers was all power and projection, where Alonso is a bit more well-rounded &#8230; with a lower ceiling.</p>
<p>No, the irrational comp I want to make isn&#8217;t based on the past but the future. And it&#8217;s based on need. Alonso is a right-handed bat with a little bit of power, and in the best possible world he turns into something like Myers in the big leagues. Right-handed power is great. First basemen who can hit are great. With Lucas Duda injured and nearing the end of his team-controlled time in Queens, and former first-rounder Dominic Smith doesn&#8217;t look like the solution long-term. With the potential to be the total package–approach, hit tool, and power–in the best possible timeline, Alonso has several productive years as part of an effective Mets lineup. Or, if your leanings are less, pie-in-the-sky, perhaps the Mets can deal him for a starting pitcher and win the World Series shortly after. &#8212; Bryan Grosnick (<a href="https://twitter.com/bgrosnick" target="_blank">@bgrosnick</a>)</p>
<h3>Blake Tiberi = George Brett</h3>
<p>Jim Callis called Blake Tiberi, the Mets&#8217; third-round pick out of Louisville, &#8220;one of the best contact hitters in college baseball.&#8221;  Tiberi <a href="http://www.gocards.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=22" target="_blank">is listed</a> at six feet and 200 lbs. Mets Scouting Director <a href="http://m.mets.mlb.com/news/article/183249818/mets-2016-mlb-draft-picks-on-day-2?topicid=167757330" target="_blank">Tommy Tanous said</a> that Tiberi was &#8220;probably the most consistent hitter&#8221; on the Louisville team and &#8220;the fact that he was a left-handed hitter with some power really was attractive to us.&#8221; Louisville, which finished 50-14, earned the right to host a Super Regional, but was eliminated by UC Santa Barbara on <a href="https://twitter.com/NCAACWS/status/742073445203087361" target="_blank">this walkoff grand slam</a> because sports are awesome sometimes.</p>
<p>The criteria: we&#8217;re looking for contact-oriented, left-handed-hitting third basemen under six feet to compare Tiberi against. The pick: George Brett. The man walked 1096 times and struck out just 908 times in 21 big league seasons. Irrational? Yup. By Tiberi&#8217;s age, Brett was a big leaguer on his way to becoming an all-time great. In his age-21 season, Tiberi will likely wear 10 different silly Brooklyn Cyclones uniforms. Oh, and Tiberi and Brett both have a five-letter name that starts with the letter B and another six-letter name. Thats good enough for a draft-day comp. &#8212; Toby Hyde (<a href="http://twitter.com/tobyhyde" target="_blank">@tobyhyde</a>)</p>
<h3>Colby Woodmansee = Michael Young</h3>
<p>In the fifth round, the Mets selected Arizona State shortstop Colby Woodmansee. The tall, lean Woodmansee put up fine numbers in the Pac-12, although there are questions about whether he&#8217;ll have the range for shortstop. The patron saints of tall shortstops are Cal Ripken and Derek Jeter. We&#8217;ll bypass those comps and instead suggest that Woodmansee will grow up to resemble another infielder picked in the fifth round of the draft out of a west coast college, UC Santa Barbara product and six-time All-Star Michael Young.</p>
<p>Young&#8217;s offensive production was driven by his batting average and contact ability, but he hit enough homers as a middle infielder to be extremely valuable. He overcame early concerns about his range similar to those currently expressed about Woodmansee. In his best years, Young was a shortstop, but by his early 30s, the Rangers had moved him to third base in an All-Star season. &#8212; Toby Hyde (<a href="http://twitter.com/tobyhyde" target="_blank">@tobyhyde</a>)</p>
<h3>Christopher Viall = Eric Hillman</h3>
<p>When I saw that the Mets had drafted Viall, <a href="http://www.gostanford.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=30600&amp;ATCLID=211011721" target="_blank">a right-handed reliever out of Stanford</a>, in the sixth round, my immediate thought was of <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=HILLMAN19660427A" target="_blank">Eric Hillman</a>. Perhaps it was simply because both men look preternaturally tall on the mound and the sports-centric mind has a way of remembering giants. Viall, who stands six-foot-nine and is wrapping up his junior year, has an easy-enough delivery, <a href="http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/40395496/v785468783/2016-draft-christopher-viall" target="_blank">can pop 93 to 95 with his four-seamer</a> and lay in his curve in the high 70s. As a sixth-rounder, the odds will be stacked against him from the start, but teams love to give players with natural, unteachable advantages (see: height, absurd) more of a chance than others. That&#8217;s what happened with Hillman, who stood six-foot-ten when he was a starter in Flushing for the &#8217;93 season.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s a truth about Hillman: He threw 145 innings in his only full-time season and kept his ERA below 4.00. That has only happened <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/share.cgi?id=fFYdt" target="_blank">132 times in Mets history</a>; Hillman&#8217;s season is tied for the lowest strikeouts (60) in all those instances. (The man he tied? Don Cardwell, No. 4 starter on your &#8217;69 Miracle Mets.) Point is, there are a lot of familiar names on this list, and yes, Eric Hillman himself is far from a sexy comp, but if Viall ever makes it onto that list as well, no one would be displeased. &#8212; Erik Malinowski (<a href="https://twitter.com/erikmal" target="_blank">@erikmal</a>)</p>
<h3>Placido Torres = Placido Polanco</h3>
<div>The Mets definitely nabbed a good pick in eighth rounder Placido Torres. One only has to hear the name Placido to know what he could be. Good infielders who last 16 years in the majors and hit 348 doubles and 104 homers are hard to come by. Clearly, there are All-Star appearances, Gold Gloves, and a playoff MVP in Torres&#8217; future as well. Even if he doesn&#8217;t work out, the Mets could even end up with a talent like Scott Rolen in a trade involving Torres, too!</div>
<div></div>
<div>Don&#8217;t try to tell me that Torres is a pitcher. We know his fate. &#8212; Andrew Mearns (<a href="https://twitter.com/MearnsPSA" target="_blank">@MearnsPSA</a>)</div>
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<div><em>Photo Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports</em></div>
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