(statistics from games played through 4/12/17)

Las Vegas 51s (AAA)

Amed Rosario, SS: 11-28, 1 BB, 3 K

Now we have about 20 weeks of these to get through, and I can’t just write up Rosario and Smith every week for the 51s. But hey, when you hit .400 your first week in Triple-A as a 21-year-old, that is going to the get the attention of this column. Smith did the same, but as long as Lucas Duda is healthy and hitting balls over the batter’s eye in Philly, the Vegas first baseman may be waiting until September for a call-up. I mentioned in our 51s preview that Rosario might be best the major league option if Cabrera has to miss any extended time later this year, but the Mets have a bit of an elephant in the room at the hot corner right now as Jose Reyes continues to struggle at the plate. This may just be a protracted slump, but Reyes has been late on fastballs and looked completely flummoxed by anything spinning. The Mets have been very conservative when calling up their better prospects—Super 2 deadline should be around June 20, but who’s counting—and would likely run through Wilmer Flores and TJ Rivera before calling up Rosario and bumping Cabrera over to the 5. But what could you expect from Rosario in the majors right now?

Rosario has toned down what was a very complicated hand path in the low minors and has the wrists to handle major league velocity. He’s an aggressive hitter, and I think major league arms will be able to exploit that. The power is probably a few years away from really manifesting in games, but it’s potentially average. The shortstop glove is ready, although he is more athlete than polish in the field. This sounds a lot to me like Alcides Escobar which is a comp that has come up on him as a downside from those that like him, and a likely from those a bit lower. It’s also a comp likely to elicit eye rolls from Mets fans, but Esky had several seasons as a good regular at shortstop; for Rosario to be that now—as a 21-year-old with fewer than 300 PA above A-ball—is a huge endorsement. From the Mets point of view though, it might not be an argument to start his clock early.

Binghamton…sigh…Rumble Ponies (AA)

Corey Taylor, RHP: 2.1 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K

Now we have about 20 weeks of these to get through, and I can’t just write up, uh…Nido….and…Guillorme? every week for the Rumble Ponies. I did get my first look at Corey Taylor as a pro last week, so let’s go with him. He’s a bit better than your run-of-the-mill “91-95 with a slider” guy who generally characterizes the “better dudes” in Double-A bullpens. He was 93-96 with a slider! The slider was just okay last weekend, but fall reports on the pitch were strong. And Taylor was the last arm into a five-and-a-half hour doubleheader in sub-40-degree temperatures, so if he could even feel his fingers, he was streets ahead of me at that point. The command profile is rough as he has a high-effort, uphill delivery, but it’s a major-league-quality arm. How much more refinement happens will be the difference between being up to snuff as a middle reliever and big league bats leaving him tattered and torn.

St. Lucie Mets (A+)

Wuilmer Becerra, OF?: 8-20, 2 2B, 2 BB, 6 K

When I filed the BP 101 last Christmas I mentioned to Craig a few days later that there were seven rankings I already hated. We are up to 14 rankings I hate now—and that doesn’t include Alex Reyes tearing his UCL the day after we published the list on the site, plus three guys I really regret not having on the list. I’m still pretty happy with our Mets Top 10, but if there is one ranking I could take back, it would be Becerra at #10. He shouldn’t be that much lower—and 10 prospects is an arbitrary cutoff anyway—but I’d feel better on April 14 if it was Tomas Nido, or Luis Carpio, or even Ali Sanchez at the back of the list. You can count 2016 as a lost year for Becerra. He struggled with back and shoulder issues all season, and couldn’t play the field or hit for any power. Yet I still got positive reports on the hit tool before he was shut down for labrum surgery. Well it’s 2017 now and he still can’t play the field, he still hasn’t shown corner outfield pop since the first half of 2015, and and the reports I’ve gotten are much worse. He’s a bit thicker, a bit slower, inexorably a year older. Twenty-two in the Florida State League isn’t old for the level, but it isn’t young either. I’ll once again cite noted prospect evaluator Haruki Murakami: “Unfortunately, the clock is ticking, the hours are going by. The past increases, the future recedes. Possibilities decreasing, regrets mounting.” The likely outcome here was always a fourth outfielder with some platoon pop. Now that looks like a good outcome.

Columbia Fireflies (A)

Colin Holderman, RHP: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 11 K

Every year at the mothership we give out “The Vogelsong Awards” for the best players that didn’t even get a mention in that year’s BP Annual. I may need to institute my own version of that for the best Mets prospect that we didn’t bother to include in our preseason affiliate previews. It may end up getting named the Holderman Award. In my defense, Columbia had by far the most dudes to write about, and the rotation is especially crowded with prospecty arms. And I did consider writing about Holderman, who was projected to go much higher than ninth round before the stuff evaporated due to some arm issues last spring. The Mets gave him $400,000 to keep him from transferring to Mississippi State with the hope that some workload management and pro instruction might get the fastball up to 96 again. That might be aspirational, but Holderman did look too good for the South Atlantic League in his first outing. He’s toned down the Arroyo leg kick part of his Arroyo-cum-Addison-Reed mechanics, and a pretty good Hickory lineup was overmatched by his fastball/breaking ball combo. The Mets usually keep guys in the A-ball levels for a full first half, but Holderman may test their resolve here. At a minimum, he probably will get a blurb in our 2018 Binghamton…sigh…Rumble Ponies preview.

Photo Credit: Steve Mitchell – USA Today Sports

In keeping with their current strategy of “have a superstar starting rotation,” (and shoring up their ability to trade for bats from an area of depth should the need arise) six of the Mets’ top 10 picks over the first nine rounds were pitchers.

Additionally, while most teams had begun drafting high school prospects as early as round three, the Mets’ top 10 consists entirely of college players. What this means is certainly up for interpretation, but to me, choosing players that are more stable in their physiological development and more seasoned on the field with experience in higher pressure environments can only be a positive—the Mets are more likely to get what they paid for, and the players will be strong enough to play professionally sooner. Which is good news for us fans, because these guys sound pretty freakin’ exciting:

Justin Dunn (19th overall pick)

Ranked the #22 prospect by Baseball America and piquing the interest of multiple teams when he transitioned from reliever to starter at Boston College this season, the Mets have emphasized their surprise that Dunn was still available by the time their turn came around. But the 20-year-old right-handed pitcher became the Mets first pick, prompting this adorable celebration by Dunn and his BC teammates, and marking the first time the Mets have used their number one pick on a pitcher since Matt Harvey in 2010.

Dunn, who is originally from Long Island, played shortstop at his private Connecticut high school before transitioning to pitching at Boston College. Upon joining the starting rotation this year, Dunn hit his stride, leading the Atlantic Coast Conference with a 1.49 ERA—and a 1.43 mark with 43 strikeouts in seven starts. His fastball, usually around 95 MPH, has been clocked at up to 99 MPH, and his breaking balls are in keeping with major league averages.

As an African-American, Dunn represents an increasingly rare demographic in professional baseball: currently only 14 of 449 major league pitchers are African-American, and only 8.27 percent of all major league players overall, a problem about which the Mets’ Curtis Granderson has spoken out and attempted to combat with his Grand Kids Foundation. The MLB at large has also been working to bring African-American kids back to the diamond with a variety of baseball-centric programs especially for inner-city youth, and the last five years of the draft have shown an uptick in black players, many of whom were participants the MLB’s programs.

Anthony Kay (31st overall pick)

The Mets used their other first-round pick for another pitcher from Long Island—this time a 21-year-old lefty from the University of Connecticut.

At five-foot-11, Kay is among the shorter pitching prospects the Mets have drafted, but scouting director Tommy Tanous seemed confident in Kay’s natural abilities, noting that Kay was “advanced” even as a high school player, “so it’s not like [he] had a long way to go.”

Indeed, the Mets originally drafted Kay in 2013 in the 29th round, but he decided to go to college. Given his jump to the first round of this year’s draft, it looks like the education paid off. At Connecticut he improved his velocity and changeup, with his fastball currently peaking at around 95 MPH. This season he struck out 111 batters and walked 35, and won the American Athletic League’s Pitcher of the Year award.

Kay attended the same Long Island high school as Steven Matz, and though Matz was four years his senior, the two said they were friendly with one another, both returning to visit their school during the winter and keeping in touch with their baseball coach.

Peter Alonso (64th overall pick)

The Mets started round two with power-hitting hopeful Pete Alonso, a first baseman at the University of Florida. Alonso leads his team this year with 12 home runs in 53 games; he’s also hit 55 RBIs with a season average of .368.

While some scouting reports question his versatility in the field, for his part, Alonso, who had played third base in high school before switching to first, said he learned the new position via repetition, “improving [his] footwork and changing [his] body in the weight room,” and is confident in his ability to switch back to third or play the outfield should the team need it.

But the reports also commend Alonso for his raw hitting power, which he showed off in full days before the draft. In May Alonso was hit by a pitch that broke his hand, but he returned with a vengeance, going 8-for-14 in the NCAA Regional conference, with three home runs and eight RBI.

Blake Tiberi (100th overall pick)

Tiberi has experience playing for a strong team. Hailing from the University of Louisville, considered the number two team in the NCAA, the switch-hitting third baseman hit .318/.371/.518 in his two years with the Cardinals, batting .340 with 51 RBI this year.

Tiberi was also a Cape Cod Summer League All-Star in 2015, where he ranked eighth in the league; he batted .315 and his team played the league championship series.

Michael Paez (130th overall pick)

The 21-year-old shortstop often goes unnoticed because of his size, but this year after improving his swing and hitting 15 home runs—making him second among NCAA shortstops—he’s finally getting the credit he deserves.

The MLB has him at five-foot-eight, but Paez called himself five-foot-seven in an interview with Miami Herald. Both Paez and the Mets’ Tanous point to Paez’s height as the reason why he’s been overlooked until now, but undervalued is probably good for the Mets’ checkbook, and there’s no denying Paez has fielding skills and swinging power despite his size, and good speed in part because of it. He currently leads the Big South Conference with 52 runs scored.

The Dean’s List student also clinched Coastal Carolina’s first College World Series appearance Monday night when, game tied in the bottom of the ninth and a man on second, Paez hit a double and sent the winning run home.

Colby Woodmansee (160th overall pick)

And the winner of the best last name of the bunch undoubtedly goes to this guy. Also a 21-year-old shortstop, albeit considerably taller at six-foot-three, Woodmansee has hit .280/.328/.418 during his time at Arizona State.

An Arizona native, Woodmansee grew up aspiring to ASU’s strong baseball program, and proved himself a solid, reliable player in that competitive atmosphere: Woodmansee has 91 hits with 55 RBI, seven home runs, and 36 runs scored over 86 games, having reached base in 61 of his past 72 games.

Christopher Viall (190th overall pick)

That the 20-year-old RHP says his favorite pitcher is Noah Syndergaard is predictable given the lightning Syndergaard’s thrown this season; what’s more unusual is that Viall, at six-foot-nine, has two inches on Thor.

Going 4-7 with a 4.80 ERA in his time at Stanford, Viall has (metaphorical) room to grow, but Mets scout Tyler Holmes said he was impressed by Viall’s natural coordination and skillset—he throws a fastball that routinely clocks in at 97 MPH and a 90 MPH changeup, and has the ability to repeat his delivery; Holmes calls Viall a “high-risk, high-reward pick,” so it’ll certainly be interesting to see if Viall can harness the power of his enormous arm.

Fun fact: Apparently a two-time Bachelorette contestant (and twice the runner-up, that’s gotta hurt) shares the last name. Happy Googling!

Austin McGeorge (220th overall pick)

A California native, the 21-year-old reliever has an ERA of 1.63 over his career at Long Beach State University. He’s pitched 83 innings in 63 games over three years at the school, going 4-2 with six saves.

In 2015 he made 31 appearances out of the bullpen, a team high; this year he led the Big West Conference with 33. The 2016 season was his best yet, with an ERA of 1.05 over 53 innings, keeping opposing batters at an average of .197.

Placido Torres (250th overall)

Born in the Dominican Republic and raised in New Jersey, the 23-year-old lefty led the NCAA Division II with a 0.71 ERA for Tusculum College (Tennessee). In 2016 he went 11-0 in 14 starts, and leads college baseball across all levels with 162 strikeouts.

Alongside Kay at 5’11″, Torres doesn’t quite fit the cannon-esque profile of the Mets current pitching staff, but that didn’t stop him from throwing seven complete games and four shutouts (four!) this season. I can’t help but feel a bit aflutter about this guy from the sheer numbers—it will be exciting to see what he can do when faced with some stronger bats.

Colin Holderman (280th overall)

The Mets rounded out their top 10 picks with one final pitcher, hailing from Heartland Community College in Bloomington, Illinois. At six-foot-six, Holderman sees eye-to-eye with Syndergaard, and went 8-1 with two shutouts for the Heartland Hawks this season, posting a 1.57 ERA with 92 strikeouts.

He also hit an impressive .489/.565/.831 with 13 home runs this season, giving him the third-best average in the NJCAA.

Photo Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports