It all started with a simple favor. During the 2012-13 off-season, Marlon Byrd’s career was in shambles. A decade in Major League Baseball spiraled out of control in 2012, as he went 3-for-43 with the Cubs before moving to the wayward Bobby Valentine Red Sox, with whom he struggled until he was cut in June. Then, he was hit with 50-game suspension for PEDs. Byrd was 35 years old. He only wanted a second chance, so in an act of charity, Alderson invited him to Mets Spring Training. Perhaps he could recapture a small semblance of his All-Star 2010 form.

To his credit, Terry Collins was optimistic about Byrd from the get-go. The Mets had very little depth in the outfield, so Byrd would have regular playing time if he could earn it:

“This guy was one of the best players in the National League not too long ago. If he’s the same player he was in Chicago a couple of years ago, we might have found ourselves a right fielder. I know he’s that kind of talent.”

Sure enough, Byrd ended up revitalizing his career under Collins, stunning the baseball world by hitting .285/.330/.518 with 21 homers in 117 games. For a man who had only once hit 20 homers in a season and had just 82 in 1,103 games, it was remarkable.

Somewhat oddly, Byrd was not dealt from the Mets at the July 31st trade deadline, but at the end of August, Alderson found a team for him. He was packaged with catcher John Buck in a trade with the Pirates for reliever Vic Black and a teenage second baseman from Colombia down in Single-A named Dilson Herrera.

The move worked out for the Pirates, as Byrd had an .843 OPS in the last month, and then hit a pivotal homer in the electric one-game Wild Card playoff against the Reds, the Pirates’ first postseason appearance in 21 years. He had another hot series in the NLDS, but St. Louis beat Pittsburgh. Byrd has bounced around four teams in three years since then, and now with another PED suspension, his career is probably over.

Meanwhile, Herrera turned himself into an interesting prospect, working his way into the Baseball Prospectus Top 100 by the beginning of 2015 with some impressive numbers at the plate as he rose into the minors’ higher levels. Although Alderson and Collins seemed oddly reluctant at giving Herrera much of a look in the majors despite a fine .257 TAv in 49 games, the 22-year-old clearly had value.

Then came the 2016 trade deadline. Alderson packaged Herrera and 2015 third-rounder Max Wotell in a deal with the Reds for outfielder Jay Bruce, a three-time All-Star on an affordable contract with an option for 2017. Analysts can debate whether losing Herrera and Wotell was worth Bruce considering the crowded outfield anyway, but either way, Collins now has a 25-homer player to add to the lineup.

Perhaps Bruce will help the Mets to a playoff spot in this year or next. Perhaps not. Nonetheless, the serendipitous path from a favor for a burnout to a key deadline addition three years later is something to behold. One month of an aging Marlon Byrd turned into Jay Bruce. That’s the beauty of baseball.

Photo Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

David Wright’s injury will require 6-8 weeks of rest from baseball activities during which he will undergo appropriate physiotherapy. #Mets

— New York Mets (@Mets) June 3, 2016

Instead of his spinal stenosis directly causing injury, it’s another part of his spinal column that seems to be holding him out. But while this isn’t the most unexpected turn of events, it still is devastating to a Mets lineup already missing Lucas Duda and Travis d’Arnaud. In many ways, the Mets’ offensive roster looks similar to what the team rolled out last season, just with Yoenis Cespedes replacing Duda’s offensive contributions and Michael Conforto standing in for the mess that was left field. It’s an upgrade, but with some combo of James Loney, Wilmer Flores, and Ty Kelly standing in at the corners, it’s not a particularly scary lineup.

Although his late-2015 and early-2016 performances caused much joy in Panic City, it appears that it may be time for the Mets to start taking a long-term look at third base. As part of our Monday staff post, you’ll see what some of our writers predict for the second half of the season, but I’d like to quickly hash through some of the internal and external options for the team, and how this squad could best address the hole that’s been created.

Internal Options

I don’t think the Mets want to leverage Ty Kelly or Eric Campbell as the team’s everyday third baseman, and for good reason. Neither of these players have been exceptional hitters even in the PCL, and neither non-prospect projects as an effective big-league hitter or especially savvy defensively. Both are PECOTA-projected for about a .264 True Average for the rest of the season, but neither has hit well at the big league level, nor project to be an average defender at third base. Soup has gotten plenty of chances over the last couple of seasons, and he’s probably out of luck. Kelly may still have a chance to establish himself, but the team likely would prefer a stronger overall option.

Wilmer Flores is probably the immediate replacement, and he only barely tops the other two in terms of MLB performance and defensive ability. With a .260 projected TAv by PECOTA, he may not be an offensive upgrade over those previous two according to the projections, but in 2015 he actually hit that well over a full season. Sure, his OBP is a mess and he could use a platoon partner, but he hit 16 homers in 510 PA and didn’t embarrass himself at shortstop.

The other option I hear bandied about by armchair GMs is a pair of moves: move Neil Walker to third base and let prospect-but-not-technically-a-prospect Dilson Herrera get started at second base. Herrera has a lot of potential and solid defensive chops, while Walker would be a fine fit at third defensively. But the problem here is that sometimes moving a player creates more problems than it solves, and Herrera hasn’t completely covered himself in glory during his MLB stints. Right now he’s hitting for more power than ever in Las Vegas … but it’s Las Vegas. If you buy Las Vegas offensive stats, then you’re probably just fine rolling with Ty Kelly because he’d be due to hit .300 or something based on his MiLB numbers in that park. Though Herrera’s PECOTA-projected TAv is in the ballpark of the team’s other options–it’s .257–and his defense projects to be plus at the keystone, there’s an argument that he still needs another few months of work in the minors.

Honestly, I really like this idea, and think Herrera could get his shot sooner rather than later, but uprooting one of the team’s most productive players and asking him to take on a new position may cause it’s own set of problems. There are simpler solutions in the interim.

External Options

I don’t want to break down every available third baseman in the league, but suffice to say names have been thrown around. Today on MLB Central, the hosts seemed to advocate for Evan Longoria as a replacement in part because of his alpha-dog, leadership-role nature … that’s great and all, but hardly a necessity for this Mets team. I like Longo, but his price tag is likely to be too high given his role as the face of the Rays for so long … not to mention his actual price tag in terms of both years and dollars. He’s regressed to an average third baseman, while likely costing the team more money and prospects than an average third baseman should cost.

Other names include Trevor Plouffe of the Twins, Danny Valencia of the Athletics, Luis Valbuena of the Astros, Yangervis Solarte or Brett Wallace of the Padres, Kelly Johnson of the Braves … there are a lot of options out there. The trick is finding an option that appeals to a team without tons of money to spend, without a lot of prospect capital, and looking to win now. Valencia and Plouffe could cost too much for the Mets’ comfort, while guys like Wallace and Solarte might not even be better options than the players already in the mix in NY. Personally, Valbuena’s my guy here … he might be the right mix of guy and cost for this team, and he’s got a little bit of flexibility if needed. (Another appealing option from my vantage point is Tommy LaStella of the Cubs, but I’m not sure that team wants to mess with anything they’ve got going right now.)

Regardless, there are lots of choices that the Mets could make. The one thing I’d advocate is this: whatever decision the team is going to make, make it soon. Trading for a player later in the season is all well and good, but the road to the playoffs may be a bit bumpier even than it was last season. There are question marks in the rotation–though not the ones the team expected–the offense isn’t firing on all cylinders, and wins today mean just as much as wins down the stretch. Now that the team knows that Wright will miss much of the season, it’s the right time to experiment just a little, then make a strong decision. No one can replace David Wright, but with a little luck or creativity, perhaps the team can come close to matching his production.

Photo Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports

…

Eh, it’s still early. At this point, we’re still in wait and see mode when it comes to statistical performances.

Triple-A

The “Prospects” aren’t hitting much.

In 19 games in April, Brandon Nimmo hit .260/.333/.315 with seven walks and 18 strikeouts. One pretty good sign that the season is still young: Nimmo raised his batting average 64 points in the final final five games of the month by going 8-for-17 with two doubles. Again, Nimmo is developing a platoon split, hitting nearly .300 with a .375 on-base percentage against righties while going 3-for-20 (.150) with one walk and 10 strikeouts against southpaws. If you were the kind of person who wondered whether Nimmo would have the offensive chops (both hit tool and power), to play everyday in the big leagues, April will not be terribly encouraging.  

The Mets decided last winter that Neil Walker made more sense at second base than handing the job to Dilson Herrera. After Walker bopped nine homers in the big leagues in April, and Herrera hit .258/.279/.364 with seven doubles and no homers in the Pacific Coast League, that looks like a wise call in hindsight. Herrera has been earning less than a walk a week (two in 17 games). That’s not a great sign given that MLB pitchers exploited his aggressiveness in 2015.

Meanwhile, Herrera’s double-play partner–Gavin Cecchini–had a similar batting average, but arrived at the outcome in dissimilar fashion. He showed outstanding strike zone control (11 walks/11 strikeouts) in 20 games on his way to hitting .258/.364/.333 with two doubles and one home run. Yeah, sure, shortstops don’t have to hit 20 homers a year, but at what point does below-average power become a major liability?

The MLB depth guys are looking more, well, depth-y

Matt Reynolds, who’s now 25, hit .299/.379/.468 in 20 games mostly at third base with a few games at short and second. This doesn’t change any of my thinking about Reynolds, who I think would be a fine backup infielder. Should the Mets tire of Eric Campbell (1-for-10 in April), they could turn to Reynolds anytime.

Travis Taijeron, in his age-27 season, hit .299/.415/.522 with 10 extra-base hits and 20 strikeouts in 20 games. Mets fans whose memories go all the way back to Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Matt den Dekker, know what this looks like in the big leagues when a pretty good athlete in the OF strikes out this much in Triple-A. (Editor’s Note: Who else can’t believe those two have regular big-league jobs today?)

Speaking of strikeouts on the mound, Gabriel Ynoa isn’t getting enough of them. His 1.48 ERA looks sparkly, but his 12/9 K/BB ratio is a duller shade. It’s just tough, if not impossible to pitch in the big leagues with a 12.3 percent strikeout rate.

Double-A

Smith’s Whiffs

Lets compare Dominic Smith’s 2015 to his 2016.

You’re going to see versions of this chart again, friend. In his first month in Double-A, Smith is hitting for a smidge more power than he did in 2015, but his strikeout rate has climbed nine percentage points, an increase of 60 percent. That’s not good.

Go-Go Gsellman

We’re really interested in guys who are doing something differently in April than they were in the past, or than we had reason to suspect. While Smith’s strikeouts meet that criteria, so too do Robert Gsellman’s.

Here, we have an explanation as well. He’s learning the Warthen slider. It’s still a work in progress, but there is progress, at least enough to impress Jeff Paternostro last Sunday.

Akeel Morris’ Heel Turn

Remember when Mets fans wanted to talk about this righthander from the US Virgin Islands? Well, he allowed eight runs on two homers and eight walks in 10.1 innings in Double-A in April. Yeah, yeah, #SSS and all, but if he cannot demonstrate legitimate command, upper level hitters will pounce.  

High-A

Rosy (Amed) Rosario

The 20-year-old shortstop finished April by hitting .305/.340/.537 with five triples (!) and three home runs. There’s little to critique in this line or his work at the plate. He’s also become an active presence on twitter, where he seems to enjoy engaging with fans.

At the risk of slicing the apple too thin, he didn’t draw a walk in his first 10 games, but admitted on Twitter later in the month that he was working on his plate discipline.

Getting deeper into counts. Taking more walks. https://t.co/S5WRzFeT6Y

— Amed Rosario (@Amed_Rosario) April 25, 2016

 Oh, and he finished the month by earning walks in five of his next 13 games. That’s a welcome–if not damn exciting–development. 

Becerra’s Singles

I was excited about Wuilmer Becerra because I saw a young guy with a big league frame, who was strong and fast and already had easy power. I wondered whether he’d hit for average. And in 2016, he’s hit for average but no power. Oh, well. Through May 2nd, on the heels of an eight-game hitting streak, the 21-year-old is raking at .394/.437/.470. He leads the FSL in batting average by 49 (!) points but did not homer in the month. He’s also striking out far less than he used to. Check out the three year trends since the Appalachian League in 2014.

Becerra the singles hitter is a lot less interesting than the guy who looked like he could threatening to hit 25 homers in a season. Still the power’s in there. The question is whether he can add it back into his more contact-driven approach.  

Chris Flexen

Chris Flexen has made four starts. In each start, his opponents have only scored in one inning against him. The bad news was that in the first three starts, they hung crooked numbers on him (three runs twice and four runs once). In his fourth, he limited the damage to one run. Call it progress? Add it all up, and he’s doing ok: 3.76 ERA, 19 K/6 BB. While the 17.4 percent strikeout rate isn’t much to brag about, his 5.5 percent walk rate is a nice continuation of last year’s 5.2 percent mark with Savannah … and it is light years better (or half) of 2014’s 11.6 percent walk rate as a Sand Gnat. There’s a big league fastball in here, so that makes him one to watch.

Low-A

Vinny Sienna

I’d be remiss not to recognize 22-year-old 2B Vinny Sienna here. The UConn product is a little old for the SAL, but he hit .362/.495/.536 in April with 19 walks against 20 strikeouts in 22 games. I’ll believe he’s a guy when he does it in Double-A.

Milton Ramos

Drafted for his defense, the shortstop hit a meager .207/.270/.259 in 18 games for the Fireflies. Meh.

David Thompson

The 21-year-old former football player is showing some pop (12 XBH in 23 games) in an April in which he hit .301/.371/.506. That’s a nice start.

Luck of the Irish

Also, lefty PJ Conlon, who is trying to become the first Irish-born big leaguer since 1945, got going in the right direction with a 1.14 ERA and an 18/1 K/BB ratio in his 23.7 innings of work. It’s worth pointing out that finesse lefties (Mark Cohoon), or really any lefties who can spin a breaking ball, can have considerable success in the SAL. Still if Conlon, who moved to California at the age of two, succeeds, we can have more examples of Irish writing about baseball including such highlights as: “Conlon has work to do before he lines out for the New York Mets first team.” Also, apparently his uncle was a boxing “guru” in Ireland.

Also, I don’t know what you’d call this color (electric yellow? Neon awesome?) but it looks great on the Fireflies, and as a pleasant side benefit, surely offends the stodgiest among us.

Photo Credit: Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports

(stats from games played between 4/13/16 and 4/19/16)

Dilson Herrera, 2B (Las Vegas 51s / Triple-A): 9-30, 3 2B, 3 R, 5 RBI, 2 BB, 4 K, 2 SB, CS

What are the Mets going to do with Dilson Herrera? This is a rhetorical question I will not be answering in this little blurb, mostly because I have no special knowledge to proffer. If they weren’t going to extend Murphy, the relatively low delta of Neil Walker was a good one-year option in a season where the team expected to compete. Herrera has looked overmatched at time in the majors (especially when pitchers elevated their fastball against him), but his playing time was sporadic in his 2014 and 2015 stints with the big club. He isn’t considered a “prospect” anymore, so gets written about less at sites like, well, this one. If he were still a prospect, he would have slotted in between Matz and Rosario on my Top 10 list as a role 55 second baseman with a broad base of average or better tools, but nothing other than run registering as plus.

To try and answer the question posed: I would guess the Mets want to ride Walker for one good season (so far, so good), extend him a qualifying offer, recoup the draft pick, and then give Herrera the reins in 2017. But you could have easily composed the same sentence about in 2015, just find and replace “Walker” with “Murphy.” You could also argue that this would be an ideal year to work in Herrera, as the Mets have a strong offense otherwise, and could hide a month or two of growing pains at towards the bottom of their lineup. But he is still just 22, and hasn’t spent that much time in the upper minors due to some nagging injuries in 2015. The skill set only really plays at second base, so you can’t sneak him into a hole that opens up somewhere in the infield. As long as Neil Walker remains healthy, Herrera will be in Las Vegas, and the 2016 offseason will look a lot like the 2015 one for the Colombian infielder.

Luis Mateo, RHP (Binghamton Mets / Double-A): 4 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, BB, 2 K

The 2012 Brooklyn Cyclones were a fun team for prospect watchers. They featured two first-round picks in Brandon Nimmo and Kevin Plawecki, and at shortstop was Phil Evans, who had gotten second-round money as a California prep in the 2011 draft. However, it was the Brooklyn rotation that caught people’s attention. Two of the six starters have already made the majors (Luis Cessa and Hansel Robles), and Gabriel Ynoa seems likely to join them at some point this season, but Mateo was widely considered to be the best prospect arm of the group. I never really got it. I saw a lot of that Cyclones team and I had him clearly behind Ynoa as a prospect, and I can’t say I am shocked Robles beat him to the majors.

Mateo had been signed three times as an IFA, the first two deals derailed by a fake birth certificate and a bad medical. The Mets grabbed him as a 21-year-old, and he was expected to move quickly. He was dominant on Coney Island, but always looked like a reliever. The arm action was awful, and there was effort throughout every part of the delivery. Even with all that he’d only touch 95-96, sitting 91-94 for the most part, and bleeding velocity throughout his outings. The slider was fine, more than enough to dominate short-season bats, but it would only flash plus a couple times a start. The reports I read coming off that season sounded like a very different pitcher than the one I saw.

Mateo made it to Double-A in 2013, but quickly went down with a torn UCL. He didn’t look close to all the way back in a 2014 rehab stint, and was shut down late that summer. He worked his way back again in 2015, and this year is in the Binghamton ‘pen as a 26-year-old.  Unfortunately he looks like the same pitcher he was in Brooklyn. The mechanics are still rough; the arm action is painful to watch at times. But the primary issue is this: the stuff just hasn’t improved since his stateside debut. He’s throwing his changeup more, but it’s a straight 20 offering. He slows his arm down as badly as any pitcher I have seen at any level while throwing it, and he can’t get it near the zone. The fastball still has some life, and the slider still flashes, but the days of dreaming on him are long past. He looks like just an organizational bullpen arm now. After watching Bobby Parnell down the stretch, Mets fans likely don’t need this reminder, but guys don’t always get all the way back from Tommy John surgery.

Wuilmer Becerra, RF (St. Lucie Mets / High-A): 6-13, 2B, R, 4 RBI, 2 BB, 2 K

One of the “non-elite prospects” in the R.A. Dickey deal (an epithet I was surprised to learn that I apparently coined), a Mets fan might consider Becerra a bit of a free roll given the success of Travis d’Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard (and if you really want to stretch it, John Buck was part of the deal for Dilson Herrera). And just looking at his Baseball-Reference page, you might think Becerra was progressing slowly. He spent three seasons in rookie-ball, and all of 2015 in the South Atlantic League. He’s still only 21 though, and started to make some real progress with his swing in his full-season ball debut. I suspect he has been nursing an injury of some sort since Spring Training–he has been in and out of the St. Lucie lineup, and mostly DHing when he’s been penciled in.

Becerra shows easy plus raw in batting practice, but the pop really hasn’t shown up in games since the first half of 2015. He popped eight home runs for Savannah by July 1st, very impressive considering the cavernous home park, but since then he has looked more like a contact-oriented hitter that gaps some doubles. The Savannah staff spread out his stance a bit during the season, so that could be a factor, but if he can figure out how to keep that contact rate while tapping back into this power potential, he could eventually be an above-average regular in right field. He sure looks the part. It’s a great frame, and he is still an average runner with enough arm for the position. A lot needs to happen for it to all come together, but if it ever does, he could be a Top-101-type talent. There is a reason Toby Hyde gushed about him during our Effectively Wild Preview.

Ivan Wilson, CF (Columbia Fireflies / Low-A): 4-19, 2 2B, 4 R, 4 BB, 8 K, SB, 2 E

If I thought Ivan Wilson could hit .240 in the majors, he’d be a no-doubt, top-five prospect in the system. He is also a good reminder why we only gush about five-tool players, not four-tool players. He has arguably the best raw power in the system, 70-grade pop that comes from the easy–and seemingly impossible–carry he gets from his swing. He was a high school shortstop (weren’t they all), and the athleticism has translated well to center field. Wilson is a plus runner with a plus arm, and is already advanced enough in the outfield that it isn’t hard to project a 60-grade glove up the middle. That is a hell of a prospect starter kit.

But oh, about that fifth tool: He just hasn’t hit. He struggles mightily to recognize any sort of spin, and keep in mind that he has only seen short-season spin so far. In my 2014 look at him, he did not put a single ball into play. He hit three bombs, walked a couple times, struck out the rest. I don’t think he even fouled a pitch off. Like Becerra, Wilson looks every bit the part of a major-league outfielder, but that fifth tool is very, very important.

Photo Credit: Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports

There is usually little point in discussing whether a minor league team is going to be good relative to the other teams in the league. Minor league teams serve the purpose of the big league team, primarily to develop future major league-caliber players. In the case of Triple-A, the team is designed to hold depth and provide insurance for the season’s inevitable injuries and churn. My point is that in most cases, discussing a team’s composition is a fool’s errand. Instead, focus on the prospects that matter at each level.

(Jeff Paternostro’s 2016 Mets Top 10 Prospects is absolutely required required reading. Relatively little has changed in the last five weeks, so in most cases, I’ll spend less time on those Top 10 guys.)

With relative stability on the big league staff following a successful 2015, the upper reaches of the minors saw very little churn among the field staff. The managers and coaches–like the players–aspire to reach or return to the show. The 2016 Las Vegas 51s return the same identical coaching staff as the 2015 version of the team with Wally Backman serving his fifth season as manager, Frank Viola his third as pitching coach, and Jack Voigt in his second as hitting coach. Keep this in mind: it is a matter of when–not if–Viola will get a shot as a big league pitching coach.

Brandon Nimmo

Nimmo’s spring was slowed by a torn muscle in his foot. While Jeff rightly wondered if this–combined with a history of knee problems–would force Nimmo from center field to left field, I wonder if this foot injury is an indication of something else. Nimmo is one of the hardest workers in the system, and I’ve admired how he seemed to come to Spring Training in bigger and better shape than he ended the previous year. Maximizing one’s natural gifts is usually the goal. However, for guys on the margin–and Nimmo now falls into this category–the level of effort required to push their body to keep up with their more talented roster-mates can induce breakdowns.

Anyway, while Nimmo has not hit enough in the upper minors to suggest that he’s an everyday player, his platoon splits do argue strongly that he’ll find a big league job. Combining his time in Double-A and Triple-A in the 2014 and 2015 seasons, he’s run a .174/.290/.225 line in 208 PA against lefthanders with exactly zero homeruns. That’s not good. On the other hand, he’s hit .285/.369/.425 in 713 PA against righties with a 17.1 percent strikeout rate and a 10.7 percent walk rate.

It just does not seem like that much of a stretch of imagination to see Nimmo as the left-handed half of a platoon.

Dilson Herrera

With 169 PA over the 2014 and 2015 seasons, Herrera no longer has rookie eligibility and thus does not appear on Baseball Prospectus’ Top 101 or any other prospect list. Despite that, he’ll be the best Mets “prospect” in the minors to start the 2015 season, and would easily belong in a Top 101. He did enough good in 31 games in the majors in 2015 to post a 0.5 WARP while hitting .211/.311/.367 with three home runs and a pair of stolen bases … at 21 years old.

The Mets temporarily blocked Herrera’s return to the show by trading for Neil Walker to play second base, and that pushed Herrera back to Las Vegas. His primary mission will be to become a more selective hitter; he walked in just 7.7 percent of his plate appearances in Triple-A in 2015. If he hits, there could well be opportunity back in the big leagues this year. In the event that David Wright cannot play every day, and Herrera beats up on Triple-A again, the Mets could shift Walker over to third to play Herrera at second while keeping Wilmer Flores in a super-sub/Lucas Duda’s caddy vs. LHP role.

Other Hitters

Jeff’s No. 4 Mets prospect, Gavin Cecchini, is headed to Vegas to start the year in his age-22 season. There’s a big leaguer in here, but probably a below-average starter. It is worth pointing out that Cecchini exhibited outstanding strike zone control in Double-A in 2015, walking in 8.7 percent of his plate appearances while fanning in just 11.3 percent, over 485 PA.

I suppose this is the place for a quick note about outfielder Travis Taijeron, who won the Mets’ John J. Murphy award for top Spring Training performance by a rookie. All together now: SPRING TRAINING STATS DO NOT MATTER. Taijeron, who turned 27 on January 20, hit .274/.393/.536 in 127 games in Las Vegas in 2015. He’s patient and strong; when he connects, he can hit a ball a long way as evidenced by his 50 extra-base hits. However, this is a swing big league pitchers will exploit in a way minor leaguers can’t. He has a very deep load, with a near-armbar that will leave him vulnerable to fastballs in. Even in Triple-A, he struck out in 30.8 percent of his plate appearances. Big league pitchers will eat him alive.

Pitchers

Things are a little leaner on the mound here after the Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Steven Matz parade through the upper minors in the last few years.

Instead, the “big” names in the Triple-A rotation will be a pair of pitchers with decent fastballs, reasonable command, and not quite enough breaking ball. And they both need to prove they can miss enough bats to compete as upper level starters. For all the excitement about Robert Gsellman’s hair in Spring Training, the right-hander fanned just 12.7 percent of opponents in 16 starts in Double-A during 2015 on his way to a 3.51 ERA. As Jeff noted, Gsellman has a nice potential curveball, he just does not throw it enough. Still, his future might be dialing his fastball up from the low 90s as a starter to 94ish out of the bullpen in short bursts. There’s still a chance that he’ll open up at a Double-A, rather than in Vegas.

The details are a little different for Gabriel Ynoa, but the punchline is awfully similar: with a strikeout rate of 12.9 percent in Double-A, he did not miss enough bats in 2015 to suggest that he has a future as a big league starter. Still, he can run it up to 95 at max effort, so perhaps there’s a viable reliever in here as well.

Lefty Josh Smoker, a former first round pick of the Washington Nationals, has bounced back from multiple shoulder surgeries to find his mid-90s heat. The Mets added him to the 40-man roster in November, so it’s a pretty good bet he’ll get a look at some point in 2016 as the bullpen churns.

Photo Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sport