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	<title>Mets &#187; Fred Wilpon</title>
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		<title>Staff Post: Mets Alternate Realities</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/04/09/staff-post-mets-alternate-realities/</link>
		<comments>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/04/09/staff-post-mets-alternate-realities/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Apr 2018 10:05:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Mets Staff]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Alternate History]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lineup Card]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asdrubal Cabrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Wright]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fred Wilpon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[R.A. Dickey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rafael Montero]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wilmer Flores]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zack Wheeler]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6347</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The 2017 Mets were set in the darkest timeline. No Mets squad won fewer than last year&#8217;s 70 since the first year of the otherwise-forgettable Art Howe era in 2003. The only player who didn&#8217;t get hurt was a prodigal son who returned to the team but felt little remorse for his faults. The manager [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The 2017 Mets were set in the darkest timeline. No Mets squad won fewer than last year&#8217;s 70 since the first year of the otherwise-forgettable Art Howe era in 2003. The only player who didn&#8217;t get hurt was a prodigal son who returned to the team but felt little remorse for his faults. The manager and athletic training staff were unceremoniously fired.</p>
<p>But what if 2018 were the brightest timeline? The storybook would feature a first-time manager with a forward-thinking approach, a free agent who signed with his hometown nine for a discount, and a bunch of <a href="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/29/staff-post-bold-predictions-for-2018/" target="_blank">bold yet optimistic predictions</a> coming true. At the risk of jinxing the National League&#8217;s best team to date, so far, so good. So long as we&#8217;re dreaming &#8212; the 6-1 start *is* a dream, right? &#8212; we asked the BP Mets staff to ask and answer some What-ifs? about Flushing&#8217;s favorites.</p>
<h3>What if spinal stenosis wasn&#8217;t a thing?</h3>
<p>David Wright was an All-Star in 2013, when he .307/.390/.514, a line that was 54% better than league average. That was his seventh Midsummer Classic appearance in eight years. Then, at age 31, Wright got old in a hurry. He stopped stealing bases, lost 140 points of SLG, and notably lost the ability to put anything behind his throws from third base. The culprit was a degenerative back condition that Wright will have to live with for the rest of his life. But what this question supposes is: What if he didn&#8217;t?</p>
<p>Through his first 10 seasons, Wright was a career .301/.382/.506 hitter. His seven-year peak produced 36.2 bWAR, a bit behind the pace produced by the <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_3B.shtml" target="_blank">14 Hall of Fame third basemen</a>. If Wright had hewed to the standard aging curve, he&#8217;d have another 15 WAR on his resume and be projected to deliver another 3 wins in 2018. Wright could well have been the next Met inducted into Cooperstown. Now he&#8217;ll have to settle for a retired number and a plaque near the Citi Field team store. &#8211; <a href="http://twitter.com/scottdsimon" target="_blank">Scott D. Simon</a></p>
<h3>What if the Mets were publicly owned?</h3>
<p>After decades of PR blunders, wouldn’t it be great if the Mets were publicly owned? Years ago I imagined that the Wilpons would lose so much money from the Bernie Madoff scandal that they would be forced to sell, like the <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/sporting-scene/those-non-profit-packers" target="_blank">Green Bay Packers&#8217; owners nearly a century ago</a>. Who knows: it may be easier these days to crowdfund a Mets purchase than to find one person to buy out the Wilpons.</p>
<p>But what would a publicly owned team do? Would they refuse to participate in the collusion holding down free agency this offseason? Would fan-owners be asked to fork over more money for a middle reliever to replace Hansel Robles? Would the GM have to listen to #MetsTwitter’s calls to trade everybody? New owners skew towards ambitious moves or Derek Jeter-level fire sales. Maybe broad public ownership would surprise everyone by being too diffuse to make big waves, making it easier for everyone to do their jobs. &#8211; <a href="https://twitter.com/noahgrand" target="_blank">Noah Grand</a></p>
<h3>What if Rafael Montero had turned into the pitcher we thought he would when he was a prospect?</h3>
<p>It’s easy to write Rafael Montero off as a competent starting pitcher. In fact, you should do exactly that. You should have done that long before the Tommy John surgery. But for a while, he wasn’t bad. He was good. He was supposed to be better than Jacob deGrom. Imagine if Montero had been part of the Five Aces, if that legendary rotation had included one more flamethrower. It’s a weird thought, isn’t it?</p>
<p>Maybe Steven Matz would have been allowed to be hurt. Maybe Matt Harvey doesn’t have to try for nine innings in Game 5. Maybe Chris Flexen gets more time to develop. Prospects don’t always pan out, no matter what teams insist about a second-round draft pick that just doesn’t make signing Jake Arrieta worth it. Montero didn’t pan out. But what if he had? &#8211; <a href="https://twitter.com/kateefeldman" target="_blank">Kate Feldman</a></p>
<h3>What if the Mets never signed R.A. Dickey to a minor-league contract in 2010?</h3>
<p>After throwing 64.1 mediocre innings for the Minnesota Twins in 2009, R.A Dickey signed a minor league contract with an invitation to Mets spring training. The knuckleballer would go on to start 91 games for the Mets, winning a Cy Young award in 2012 on his way to becoming one of the best starting pitchers in the game. In one of Sandy Alderson’s best moves as GM, he traded Dickey to the Toronto Blue Jays after the 2012 season for a package of players that included Noah Syndergaard and Travis d’Arnaud.</p>
<p>Syndergaard has developed into one of the best starting pitchers in the game as a Met, while d’Arnaud has been intermittently healthy and productive. Dickey was never able to repeat the success he had in New York, and the Mets reached the 2015 World Series with Syndergaard on the mound and d’Arnaud behind the plate.  Dickey’s success as a Met allowed the organization to build its next contender much sooner than anyone could have hoped. – <a href="https://twitter.com/asros213" target="_blank">Alex Rosen</a></p>
<h3>What if <b>the Mets successfully traded Wilmer Flores and Zack Wheeler to the Brewers for Carlos Gomez at the 2015 deadline?</b></h3>
<p>There are so many Butterfly Effects in this multiverse. Chiefly, the Mets would&#8217;ve gotten an injury-plagued Carlos Gomez, who had an 85 OPS+ with the Astros in the second half of 2015, instead of Yoenis Cespedes (17 HR in 57 games, 155 OPS+), who supercharged the offense to such a degree that for about a week, the baseball commentariat believed he deserved to win MVP over Bryce Harper. Oh, and he led the Mets to a surprise division title and their first pennant in 15 years, and is now cararguably the Mets&#8217; most dangerous power threat since Mike Piazza (let&#8217;s debate the merits of Carlos Beltrán another time).</p>
<p>Then there&#8217;s the case of the insane night where Wilmer Flores cried himself into Mets lore. If Sandy Alderson likes what he sees in Gomez&#8217;s medicals, Flores gets pulled at the appropriate juncture, sheds no (public) tears and becomes the answer to a Mets trivia question. He never even gets a chance to become one of the most indelible folk heroes in team history two days later. This is probably, not so secretly, the saddest part of this whole dystopia.</p>
<p>There are also the moments within these greater arcs we never get, with broad implications: Is Daniel Murphy still the same, &#8220;net negative&#8221; Met without his Ruthian postseason? Does Sandy Alderson lose his job? Are Ruben Tejada and Chase Utley friends? Question marks abound.</p>
<p>Admittedly, the team would be minus a Zack Wheeler and plus a Michael Fulmer, which may be the only silver lining Mets fans can enjoy in these other universes. Because what happens when the Carlos Gomez-led Mets inevitably miss the playoffs? Maybe they still sign Céspedes in the offseason and make a similar run in 2016, but who knows? The Mets we know have never been able to put it all together and ride their young, controllable pitching talent to consistent division titles, but at least they had 2015. The Mets affected by this particular butterfly didn&#8217;t, and yes, now I&#8217;m depressed. &#8211; <a href="https://twitter.com/JordanRab" target="_blank">Jordan Rabinowitz</a></p>
<div>
<h3>What if the Mets traded Asdrubal Cabrera in 2017?</h3>
<p>Though it was clear Amed Rosario was the future Met shortstop from the start, Cabrera still wanted out.  Luckily for the red-hot Amazin’s, he has settled in nicely after finally accepting his should-be role of second base.  Having hit .280 in his first two seasons with the Mets, Cabrera&#8217;s provided much-needed lineup versatility and a switch-hitting bat that has allowed Mickey Calloway to experiment with Cabrera at the 1, 2, 4, and 5 spots in the order.  In a lineup with some questions, the 32-year old veteran will be relied on for consistency and play a pivotal role in an already-promising 2018 season. – <a href="https://twitter.com/TylerOringer" target="_blank">Tyler Oringer</a></p>
</div>
<p><em>Photo credit: Tommy Gilligan &#8211; USA Today Sports; Photo illustration: Scott D. Simon</em></p>
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		<title>How To Grade Your Terrible Sports Ownership Group</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/07/how-to-grade-your-terrible-sports-ownership-group/</link>
		<comments>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/07/how-to-grade-your-terrible-sports-ownership-group/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 07 Mar 2017 14:18:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Noah Grand]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fred Wilpon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jeff Wilpon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ownership]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=3222</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As we move along in Spring Training, teams will judge some of their players unworthy of a spot in big league camp and send them to the minor league fields. We may want to judge some of these players. After all, there isn’t a whole lot to do besides watch for amazingly weird catches and [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As we move along in Spring Training, teams will judge some of their players unworthy of a spot in big league camp and send them to the minor league fields. We may want to judge some of these players. After all, there isn’t a whole lot to do besides watch for <a href="http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/69972428/v1228729083/mianym-guillorme-catches-hechavarrias-errant-bat/?query=Luis%2BGuillorme">amazingly weird catches</a> and <a href="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/03/david-wright-doesnt-owe-anyone-his-retirement/">worry about injuries</a>. Why not spend the time evaluating owners?</p>
<p>Last month saw several owners get in the news for all the wrong reasons. Ken Kendrick <a href="http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/phoenix/2017/01/03/arizona-diamondbacks-sue-maricopa-county-chase-field/96129136/">demanded $187 million in public funding</a> to renovate Chase Field. Jeffrey Loria may get a <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/news/the-glorious-exit-of-jeffrey-loria-the-worst-owner-in-sports-054809854.html">huge profit</a> by <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article136510588.html">selling</a> the Marlins &#8230; <em>and <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2017/02/15/marlins-owner-jeffrey-loria-white-house-france-ambassador/97970794/">become the United States’ ambassador to France</a></em>! James Dolan reminded New Yorkers that he still runs the Knicks, starting a petty feud with fan favorite Charles Oakley. Somewhere I imagine the Wilpons said “hey what about us?” and now <a href="http://m.mets.mlb.com/news/article/218206236/mets-tim-tebow-to-make-spring-training-debut/">Tim Tebow is getting a minor league start</a>.</p>
<p>I used to teach stats before writing for this site. I’m used to seeing students make mistakes early on, get feedback, and do better on the final exam. All of these owners have had their teams long enough to get feedback from the fans and the media about how they should behave. Has your team’s owner learned enough to pass a final exam in Sports Ownership?</p>
<p>This final exam is going to be worth 100 points. When I taught I always let students duck a question on in class exams, but college courses aren’t worth billions of dollars. Sports owners have to answer every question. I’ll give a grading key so you can play along and grade your “favorite” owner. Then I’ll give you my grade for the Wilpons.</p>
<h2>On Field Activity</h2>
<p><strong>1) Is the owner spending enough money on the team? (10 pts)</strong></p>
<p>Most fans would be thrilled to root for a team where the owner signs the checks and doesn’t do anything else but make an awkward speech after their team wins a title. Baseball has <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/money-is-buying-wins-again-in-2016/">higher correlation between spending and wins</a> recently. We know spending helps teams win, but we also know that any owner why spends an extra $100 million on payroll may not be able to stay in business long term. That’s why most of us focus on whether an owner is spending “enough.”</p>
<p>Smart fans shouldn’t give much sympathy to an owner who has below expected payroll because they have below expected revenue: that’s like giving a college student extra credit because they were honest about not reading the book.</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline">Grading</span>: Look up the team’s media market rank, from largest to smallest in the league. Then look up the team’s payroll from the last five years.</p>
<ul>
<li>Top-10 markets: Give 2 points each year the team is top-5 in spending, 1 point each year they are sixth through 10th.</li>
<li>Other markets: Give 2 points each year the spending rank exceeds the market rank.</li>
<li>Loria rule: Deduct 4 points each year team spending is less than what the team gets from revenue sharing. A lot of questions will have penalties like this. Just remember we’re not going to give owners negative points for any question.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>2) Is the owner avoiding the temptation to hire and fire managers on a whim? (5 pts)</strong></p>
<p>George Steinbrenner’s Yankees won the 1977 World Series, but fired Billy Martin the next season over a major fight with Reggie Jackson. He went on to have 11 different managers over the next 13 seasons. The team played worse and worse amid the turmoil, eventually spiraling in to the club’s longer streak without making the postseason since Babe Ruth came to town. Jeffrey Loria certainly hasn’t spent like Steinbrenner, but he’s joined the spirit of firing managers on a regular basis. Just ask Joe Girardi and Ozzie Guillen. Then again, Mattingly’s ban on facial hair may do enough to channel Yankees’ tradition to slow down the firings.</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline">Grading:</span> Look up the average tenure for each manager. Is it one year, two years, etc? Give the owner this many points. Deduct two points every time the owner fires a manager over a personal feud.</p>
<p><strong>3) Is the owner avoiding the temptation to hire and fire players on a whim? (15 pts)</strong></p>
<p>The Mets have been relatively successful the last two years in spite of the Wilpons. There’s no Arte Moreno demanding the team spend its entire free agent budget on an aging star then not leaving enough cash to flush out the roster. Jeff Wilpon has yet to pull a <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/report--kings-owner-vivek-ranadiv%C3%A9-has-pitched-a-4-on-5-defense---leaving-one-player-to-cherry-pick-221946018.html">Vivek Ranadive</a>, demanding the Brooklyn Cyclones to experiment with a four man outfield or trading away a superstar. Few things make fandom feel more futile than rooting for a team where the owner keeps sabotaging the roster, so I made this worth more points.</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline">Grading:</span> Pick from one of these four levels of ownership meddling. If it takes more than 15 seconds and you’re still stuck between categories, split it down the middle.</p>
<ul>
<li>No meddling. Ownership lets the baseball ops staff do its job. Give the full 15 points.</li>
<li>Minor meddling/nepotism. Ownership has made one or two minor interventions (i.e., Jeff Wilpon allegedly pushing for the Mets to deal away Scott Kazmir) or the owner invests the time and energy to become a full time GM. Give 10 points.</li>
<li>Moderate meddling. Ownership gets involved with a wide range of front office decisions that hurt the franchise, like when Loria <a href="http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/florida-marlins-owner-jeffrey-loria-president-baseball-operations-larry-beinfest-dan-jennings-david-samson-091513">vetoed the callup of Triple-A infielder Chris Valaika</a>. Give 5 points.</li>
<li>Severe meddling. Ownership trades away a superstar in a move that <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/2017/2/20/14666680/demarcus-cousins-trade-pelicans-kings-nba-2k">even video games reject as too unbalanced</a>. Give 0 points and expect that fan base to mourn until they win a title.</li>
</ul>
<h2>Running a Competent Organization</h2>
<p><strong>4) Is the owner hiring the most qualified people for team jobs, or hiring family members? (5 pts)</strong></p>
<p>Most sports teams have a majority owner who made their money elsewhere and then bought a team. If the owner holds the team long enough, their kids may want to go in to the fun family business: sports. Unfortunately, owners’ kids have a pretty spotty record as owners themselves. Most of the Wilpons’ bad decisions can be traced to son Jeff Wilpon, not father Fred. James Dolan got control over the Knicks and Rangers from his father and ran them in to the ground. When it goes wrong, second generation owners tend to have poor impulse control and are extremely sensitive to criticism. Maybe it’s telling that the Steinbrenner sons don’t seem to have these problems, but their father did. Just remember that you actually <em>can</em> fire incompetent family members from the team–Jeanie Buss fired her idiot brother from the Lakers–but now her brothers are trying to get her fired!</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline">Grading</span>: 5 points for no nepotism in key positions, 0 for hiring family.</p>
<p><strong>5) Is the owner running a professional workplace where no one feels harassed? (10* pts)</strong></p>
<p>Both Dolan and Jeff Wilpon have been sued for firing female employees who complained about sexual harassment at the workplace. In 2007, Knicks marketing executive Anucha Browne Sanders sued Dolan and MSG over unwanted advances from then coach Isiah Thomas. The <a href="http://www.espn.com/nba/news/story?id=3046010">jury awarded Browne Sanders $11.6 million</a>, with Dolan personally liable for $3 million. Former Clippers owner Donald Sterling was sued for racial and age discrimination after firing general manager Elgin Baylor. Sterling had already settled Department of Justice lawsuit over discrimination against black renters in his real estate business, so <a href="http://deadspin.com/5152187/baylor-clippers-were-like-a-vision-of-a-southern-plantation">it seemed plausible</a> that Sterling would discriminate in his sports business as well. Baylor eventually <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/2011/mar/04/sports/la-sp-clippers-baylor-sterling-20110305">dropped the racial claim after a judge ruled certain statements inadmissible</a>, He lost the age discrimination suit too, but this didn’t fully clear Sterling’s name.</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline">Grading</span>: This is an easy yes or no question. Owners should either get full points or no points. An owner who wins at trial but not in the court of public opinion gets 5. If 10 points feels low, just bear in mind that harassment lawsuits almost always lead to getting the next two questions wrong as well.</p>
<p><strong>6) Is the owner avoiding other personal feuds that make the team look bad? (10 pts)</strong></p>
<p>Players leave teams for better opportunities on a regular basis. It’s something every business has to deal with when managing personnel. But some owners take this incredibly personally, like they are going through a bad breakup. When a player leaves Boston, how long will it take before we hear negative rumors about their character? The Dodgers and their television station continue to feud with most of Los Angeles’ cable and satellite providers. Feuds can overlap with meddling, like the case of Loria and Valaika. They can also overlap with lawsuits. We’ll take off points here too.</p>
<p>Knicks owner James Dolan takes feuds to another level. Over a decade ago he refused to renew Marv Albert’s contract, presumably because Marv was too critical of the team. Earlier this month he had Charles Oakley thrown out of the arena, then made wild accusations about Oakley possibly having a drinking problem. Two years ago he <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/basketball/knicks/james-dolan-fan-knicks-don-root-nets-article-1.2107332">got in a feud with a fan emailing to complain</a>, telling the fan “What have you done that anyone would consider positive or nice. I am betting nothing.” Dolan once again suggested<em> someone else </em>may have a drinking problem–psychologists call this projection. Dolan earns a special place in any list of bad owners since he seems to enjoy lashing out at fans and their favorite personalities more than winning.</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline">Grading</span>: Pick one of these three:</p>
<ul>
<li>No feuds: Give the owner 10 points.</li>
<li>Some feuds: The owner feuds with a former player or executive. Give 5 points.</li>
<li>Many feuds and/or petty feuds: Either the owner has a bunch of feuds, or they have a particularly nasty one. Think of emailing fans, firing fan favorites, or retaliating against a 28-year-old journeyman hoping for one big league paycheck. Give 0 points and remember to drink in moderation since these owners keep digging themselves a new hole.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>7) Is the owner avoiding publicity stunts that embarrass the team? (5 pts)</strong></p>
<p>No one does publicity stunts better than the Mets. They are comedic gold just about every time. Why let a little thing like “the Wilpons aren’t trying to be funny” get in our way? Last year had the Tim Tebow signing, which <a href="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/08/tim-tebow-new-york-mets-punchlines-and-hail-marys/">our fearless leader summed up</a> as a PR move with no chance of affecting the major league club. 2013 saw the Mets reach out to Cougar Life–&#8221;the cougar dating site for younger hot men to meet sexy older professional women&#8221;–to try and stuff the all-star game ballot box for David Wright. (<a href="http://deadspin.com/mets-approached-cougar-site-about-stuffing-ballot-box-f-512966052">Deadspin got the e-mails</a>.) The only baseball team to get close to a Mets level PR flop is Arte Moreno insisting his team is the “<em>Los Angeles</em> Angels of Anaheim.” Even when things get ugly for the Mets, like their <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/10/sports/baseball/mets-day-for-american-indians-offends-group.html?pagewanted=2&amp;_r=2&amp;ref=baseball">attempt to honor Native American Heritage in a game against the Atlanta <em>Braves</em></a> it’s more of an embarrassment than actual bad blood.</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline">Grading</span>: This is going to be very subjective. I’d give the full five points for boring, non-existent PR and 0 points if your team is a joke meme. I’d also give 3 points extra credit if the team owner allows players and/or social media coordinators to be funny online. (Yes, I gave pity points if a student didn’t know the answer so they intentionally wrote something funny.)</p>
<h2>Taking Our Money</h2>
<p><strong>8) Is the owner keeping prices reasonable or trying to squeeze every last dollar out of the fans? (10 pts)</strong></p>
<p>One of the first things Arte Moreno did when buying the Angels was reduce the price of beer. It was a great first impression that earned him years of goodwill. Mets and Yankees fans both recoiled from sticker shock when the new stadiums were built. However, raising the ancillary fees that fit in the total cost of attending a game seems more aggravating. Fred McCourt immediately raised the price of parking while cutting back on security outside Dodger Stadium, and the fans never forgave him. Maybe that’s an LA thing though: <a href="http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-ln-rams-parking-20160918-snap-story.html">people saw $50 in parking</a> for the Rams’ regular season debut as a steal! (Yes, I’m very jealous of the good public transit that connects to ballparks in New York.)</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline">Grading</span>: 10 points if prices haven’t gone up in the last three years. 7 points if they went up once. 4 points if they went up twice or had a single large hike. 0 points for raising prices three straight years or if your prices are the most expensive in the league.</p>
<p><strong>9) Is the owner paying for a new stadium themselves, or are they paying for it with tax dollars? (15 pts)</strong></p>
<p>A few weeks ago MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred said &#8220;to be a major league-quality stadium,&#8221; Chase Field &#8220;needs work.&#8221; The Arizona Diamondbacks are <a href="http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/phoenix/2017/01/03/arizona-diamondbacks-sue-maricopa-county-chase-field/96129136/">suing to get out of their lease</a> unless they can get $187 million in improvements to Chase Field. The Dbacks lease clearly says <a href="http://www.fieldofschemes.com/2016/04/14/10919/county-to-d-backs-most-of-187m-in-upgrade-demands-is-items-team-agreed-to-pay-for/">the team is responsible for most of these costs</a>, but ownership and the commissioner are creating a crisis to try and push through new policy. (Sound familiar?)</p>
<p>Billionaires demanding giant bags of money up front to build a new scoreboard get the most attention. However, this isn’t the only way that the public can end up paying for a stadium. One of the perks of being an uber-rich sports owner is the ability to negotiate your way out of taxes, particularly property taxes. Voters don’t notice forsaken revenues the same way they notice direct subsidies, even though both make it harder for governments to provide other basic services like education. Did you know <a href="http://www.fieldofschemes.com/2014/05/14/7309/msg-now-earning-more-than-50m-a-year-in-property-tax-breaks/">the next dollar of property tax that James Dolan spends on Madison Square Garden will be the first</a>?</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline">Grading:</span> Start with a baseline of 15 points, then take away 1 point for every $25 million in public stadium funding.</p>
<h2>Off Field Incidents</h2>
<p><strong>10) Is the owner behaving ethically in their other businesses? (15 pts)</strong></p>
<p>While Mets fans were reeling from the Madoff blowback in 2011, one of my friends from college helped put the Wilpons’ involvement in perspective. “At least they’re not Donald Sterling.” The Los Angeles Clippers of that decade were known for two things: losing and racial discrimination lawsuits. Every few years <a href="http://www.espn.com/nba/news/story?id=4187729">Sterling paid a large settlement</a> to resolve new charges of discriminating against black and Mexican renters. When the Clippers traded for Chris Paul I briefly considered hopping on the Clippers bandwagon–I do live in LA–but there’s no way I could back the team owned by a slumlord. Or the team owned by <a href="http://deadspin.com/cleveland-cavaliers-owner-dan-gilberts-nba-championship-1782375100">the head of a predatory mortgage company</a>. Any time an owner is that malicious in their non-sports business, it makes it awfully hard for me to feel good about their sports business … unless they lose! Thankfully baseball lacks this kind of villain at the moment.</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline">Grading:</span> 0 points for being evil, 15 points for not being evil. If the owner is incompetent and/or shady but not really evil, we will handle that on an ad hoc basis. The Madoff case is unique.</p>
<h3>Grading the Mets</h3>
<p>Now that we have our grading scheme, let’s grade the Wilpons as an example:</p>
<p>1) Spending enough: 0 out of 10. The Mets haven’t had a top-10 payroll in five seasons. The Mets actually had a lower payroll than <em>Kansas City</em> when the teams faced off in the World Series!</p>
<p>2) Firing managers: 5 out of 5. The Wilpons aren’t calling the shots.</p>
<p>3) Player meddling: 10 out of 15. Jeff Wilpon has been suspected of interfering with several decisions over the years but ownership has been fairly hands off for years.</p>
<p>4) Hiring family: 0 out of 5. Jeff Wilpon reminds us why it’s a red flag, even if he’s still the owner’s kid and not the owner.</p>
<p>5) Professional workplace: 0 out of 10. Jeff Wilpon learned the wrong lesson from the Knicks’ fiasco. Instead of learning not to harass employees, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/14/sports/baseball/mets-settle-case-with-executive-who-cited-discrimination-over-pregnancy.html?_r=0">he learned to settle the case before it goes to trial</a>. Wilpon was sued for allegedly saying he was “morally opposed” to the team’s vice president of ticket sales having a baby without being married.</p>
<p>6) Feuds: 10 out of 10. The Wilpons don’t really have any.</p>
<p>7) Publicity stunts: 0 out of 5. Are you ready for Tebow time?</p>
<p>8) Squeezing fan budgets: 0 out of 10. Yes, New York is expensive, but Citi Field had <a href="http://nypost.com/2014/04/05/high-cost-of-citi-visits-helping-to-keep-mets-fans-away/">baseball’s most expensive hot dogs in 2014</a>. <a href="https://www.axs.com/news/new-york-mets-beer-prices-soar-at-citi-field-49458">Beer prices went up in 2015</a>. Do I need to go on?</p>
<p>9) Bilking the public: 0 out of 15. You may remember how the Mets took out loans to cover Citi Field construction costs. <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/wilpon-explains-amazin-drop-payroll-article-1.1263103">Fred Wilpon opened 2013</a> saying the major salary decrease was a short term issue as the team had to pay off debt. However, both the Mets and Yankees got city property and sales tax exemptions on their stadiums, along with federal tax-exemptions on their bonds. In the end <a href="http://www.fieldofschemes.com/2009/01/14/1987/nyc-baseball-stadium-subsidies-do-i-hear-1-8b/">Field of Schemes estimates the public will pay around 75 percent of the cost for Citi Field</a>.</p>
<p>10) Off-field ethics: 10 out of 15. There’s only one owner in pro sports that has had to slash payroll because they <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/05/30/madoffs-curveball">profited from a Ponzi scheme</a> and had to pay back the losers. At best, Fred Wilpon was too dense to realize his profits from Madoff’s Ponzi scheme were too good to be true. At worst, he lied to himself about the risks, just like anyone saying “oh it’s fine every pitcher comes back 100% from Tommy John surgery.” Yes, Wilpon couldn’t make payroll one year and had to get a loan from his buddy Selig. The double standard in how MLB treated the Wilpons as opposed to Fred McCourt is a serious black mark on Bud Selig’s legacy, but that doesn’t make Wilpon as malicious as Donald Sterling.</p>
<p><em><strong>Final Wilpon Grade:</strong></em> 35 points. There’s certainly room to be a bigger failure. Without looking at it too closely, I think James Dolan would be worse. But at a certain point, does it really matter? An F is an F!</p>
<p>I know this is a difficult exam. Most owners are demanding enough public stadium funding that it’s going to be impossible for them to get an A. That’s the point. Owning and running a large organization is hard as it is. We expect more out of people who run organizations that double as one of our main forms of amusement and symbols of civic pride. We’re OK if owners profit from the arrangement instead of running the team like a non-profit, break-even venture. It shouldn’t be too much to ask for an owner who doesn’t embarrass their customers or bleed them dry.</p>
<p><em>Photo Credit: Brad Penner–USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Future Plaques in the Mets Hall of Fame</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/25/future-plaques-in-the-mets-hall-of-fame/</link>
		<comments>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/25/future-plaques-in-the-mets-hall-of-fame/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 Jul 2016 10:00:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Mets Staff]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lineup Card]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Al Leiter]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Cone]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edgardo Alfonso]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fred Wilpon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gary Cohen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jay Horwitz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mike Piazza]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1643</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Yesterday, Mike Piazza was inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, becoming the 312th member of that exclusive club. Three years prior, Piazza was inducted into the Mets Hall of Fame, located far back in Citi Field&#8217;s Jackie Robinson Rotunda, unsurprisingly adjacent to the Mets Team Store. With 27 inductees in 54 Mets seasons, new Mets [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yesterday, Mike Piazza was inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, becoming the 312th member of that exclusive club. Three years prior, Piazza was inducted into the <a href="http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/photos/gallery.jsp?content_id=17648588&amp;c_id=nym" target="_blank">Mets Hall of Fame</a>, located far back in Citi Field&#8217;s Jackie Robinson Rotunda, unsurprisingly adjacent to the Mets Team Store. With 27 inductees in 54 Mets seasons, new Mets Hall of Famers have been added at the rate of one every (/uses TI-85) two years the team&#8217;s been around. Piazza&#8217;s 2013 ceremony was the last one, so we&#8217;re due for another. Here&#8217;s whose faces we think will be on those plaques. &#8212; Scott D. Simon (<a href="http://twitter.com/scottdsimon" target="_blank">@scottdsimon</a>)</p>
<h3>Edgardo Alfonzo</h3>
<p>Signed out of Venezuela as a teenager, Edgardo Alfonzo was a man before his time. These days, a middle infielder with who can hit for average and power and draw walks and field his position is hailed as one of the best players in baseball. But when Fonzie took over as a 23-year-old starter in 1997, we’d never before seen anyone like him in Flushing. Four seasons hitting over .300. Top-10 in franchise history for batting average, on base percentage, home runs, RBI and runs scored. One of the most consistent and versatile infielders of his era, Alfonzo moved from third base to second in 1999 to form one of the best infields in franchise history. His first-inning two-run homer led the Mets over the Reds in the 1999 Wild Card playoff. When the Mets made the World Series the next season, Alfonzo led the team with 6.6 WARP. Two years ago, Alfonzo came back to New York to coach the Brooklyn Cyclones. &#8212; Noah Grand (<a href="https://twitter.com/noahgrand" target="_blank">@noahgrand</a>)</p>
<h3>Fred Wilpon</h3>
<p>You&#8217;ll note this week&#8217;s topic is not who we <em>want</em> to see on a Mets Hall of Fame plaque. Aside from Mets players, the <a href="http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/nym/history/nym_history_halloffame.jsp" target="_blank">list</a> of current inductees includes a few executives: Johnny Murphy and George Weiss, the architects of the 1969 Miracle Mets, and Frank Cashen, the general manager for the 1986 World Series winner. The Mets&#8217; first owner, Joan Whitney Payson, was inducted into the Mets Hall in 1981, six years after her death.</p>
<p>Fred Wilpon will turn 80 after this season. He&#8217;s intensely concerned about his reputation. You may remember that insane <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/05/30/madoffs-curveball" target="_blank">New Yorker profile</a> from 2011. (Sample quote: &#8220;Everybody likes Fred, there is tremendous respect for Fred, people listen to what he has to say, and I don’t know of anybody who has ever had an open fight with him.&#8221;) Wilpon might not commission his own statue outside Citi Field (and nobody&#8217;s going to get a Fred Wilpon <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=29883" target="_blank">tattoo</a>). But Wilpon will be a Mets Hall-of-Famer. The only question is when. &#8212; Scott D. Simon (<a href="http://twitter.com/scottdsimon" target="_blank">@scottdsimon</a>)</p>
<h3>David Cone</h3>
<p>Cone&#8217;s place in Mets lore occupies that unfortunate stretch of years immediately following &#8217;86, when the team struggled to recapture the success everyone assumed would continue. When Cone was acquired from Kansas City in spring training of 1987, he was an unproven 23-year-old with all of 11 MLB relief appearances to his name. By the time he was traded to Toronto for Jeff Kent in August 1992, Cone was a full-fledged star. He won his only two career strikeout titles as a Met (1990, 1991). His superlative 20-3 season in 1988 helped the Mets to their second NL East title in three years. And while Cone&#8217;s star only rose further once he left Queens &#8212; he&#8217;d win five World Series titles in all, the first coming that fall with the Blue Jays, and his perfect game in 1999 won&#8217;t ever be forgotten in the Bronx &#8212; he was a <a href="http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/W6XuJ" target="_blank">consistent winner</a>, even during the offensively lean times of the early &#8217;90s. His time with the Mets was on the short side, but Cone&#8217;s results were undeniable. &#8212; Erik Malinowski (<a href="https://twitter.com/erikmal" target="_blank">@erikmal</a>)</p>
<h3>Jay Horwitz</h3>
<p>Perhaps nobody outside of Bob Murphy, Mets Hall of Fame class of 1984, has had a longer record of contribution to the Mets than the venerable Vice President of Media Relations, Jay Horwitz. Horwitz was hired by the Mets in 1980 and has made an indelible mark on the team as one of the last old-school PR men in the game.</p>
<p>Over the past few years, Horwitz has become something of a pop culture icon for diehard fans. His Twitter account, as infrequently updated as it is, served as great comic relief when the team was not as good on the field. He had a bobblehead night at Citi Field. Tales of his pocket-dialing random contacts are ubiquitous in slice of life stories around the team. He’s as much a part of the fabric of the team as almost anyone, and he deserves induction into the Mets Hall of Fame. <strong><span style="font-weight: 400">&#8211; Jarrett Seidler (<a href="https://twitter.com/@jaseidler" target="_blank">@jaseidler</a>)</span></strong></p>
<h3>Al Leiter</h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>While this past weekend was spent celebrating a certain 1998 Mets-Marlins trade, another between those teams also had a tremendous impact on the franchise. Al Leiter was no stranger to New York City when he came over from Florida in a February 1998 deal for A.J. Burnett and a couple other prospects. He was a second-round pick by the Yankees in 1984, but overuse led to major shoulder problems. Leiter would not establish himself as reliable until he was traded to the Blue Jays.</p>
<p>By &#8217;98, though, Leiter had thrown a no-hitter and earned World Series rings from the Blue Jays and Marlins; he was considered a superb southpaw. He wasted little time becoming the Mets&#8217; ace. It was Leiter who threw a shutout in the one-game Wild Card playoff in &#8217;99 against the Reds. It was Leiter who the Mets turned to guide them through the postseason in &#8217;99 and 2000. It was Leiter pitching his heart out as the Mets tried desperately to stay alive in the Subway Series, only to be done on a ninth-inning thousand-hopper after 142 pitches.</p>
<p>Leiter&#8217;s seven years in Queens were excellent, even as he became one of the few bright spots on sagging teams under Art Howe. As the head of the rotation during the Mets&#8217; finest era since 1986, a spot in the Mets Hall of Fame seems well-deserved for the New Jersey native. &#8212; Andrew Mearns (<a href="http://twitter.com/MearnsPSA" target="_blank">@MearnsPSA</a>)</p>
<h3>Ron Darling</h3>
<p>Darling was never the best pitcher on his team, but he was  consistently solid. He saved his best performance for the Mets&#8217; championship season, when he spun a 2.81 ERA in 1986. Now, none of this would be enough on its own to get Darling a plaque in the Mets Hall of Fame.</p>
<p>I like when people are able to excel in multiple exploits during the course of their life. Darling&#8217;s fantastic work in the Mets broadcast booth puts him over the top. Darling has been with SNY since 2006, so we are now talking about his work in terms of decades. It has been nothing but stellar. Darling has become one of the best color commentators in the game and is part of a broadcast team that is revered as one of the best in the game as well. If Darling stays  with the team, his excellent commentary and knowledge of the game &#8212; combined with his  production as a Met &#8212; makes him an easy choice for a plaque in the future. &#8212; Tyler Plofker (<a class="ProfileHeaderCard-screennameLink u-linkComplex js-nav" href="https://twitter.com/TylerPlofker" target="_blank">@<span class="u-linkComplex-target">TylerPlofker</span></a>)</p>
<h3>Gary Cohen</h3>
<p>The last time the New York Mets introduced an announcer in their Hall of Fame was 1984, when the trio of Ralph Kiner, Bob Murphy and Lindsey Nelson received their plaques. However, no Mets announcer is more deserving of the honor than SNY play-by-play man Gary Cohen. Cohen started covering the Mets on the radio in 1989 alongside Murphy before taking over primary responsibilities in 2003. He then made the transition to SNY on TV in 2006 and has been a staple of what is arguably the best announcing team in all of Major League Baseball.</p>
<p>Cohen is also celebrated for his memorable calls in New York Mets history such as Todd Pratt’s walk-off home run in 1999 to defeat the Diamondbacks in the NLDS and, more recently, the final out of Johan Santana’s first no-hitter in New York Mets history. Making these calls and announcing every game has made Cohen a staple in Mets fans&#8217; lives. Recently, Cohen&#8217;s voice even became recognizable nationwide with his emphatic call of Bartolo Colon’s first career home run. But Cohen is more than just a Mets announcer; he is a fellow Mets fan. &#8212; Seth Rubin (<a href="http://twitter.com/sethrubin" target="_blank">@SethRubin</a>)</p>
<p><i>Photo Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports</i></p>
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		<title>The Biggest Mets Villains</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/09/the-biggest-mets-villains/</link>
		<comments>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/09/the-biggest-mets-villains/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 09 May 2016 09:57:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Mets Staff]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lineup Card]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chase Utley]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Derek Jeter]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fred Wilpon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jeff Wilpon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jimmy Rollins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Plawecki]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mike Piazza]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roger Clemens]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ruben Tejada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Shane Victorino]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yadier Molina]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yoenis Cespedes]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[The guy you love to hate. The one you&#8217;re most afraid of when he faces the Mets in a clutch situation. You don&#8217;t root for players to get hurt, but if he happens to miss the next Mets series with flu-like symptoms, you won&#8217;t object. Even the guys you wish were not in charge. These are [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The guy you love to hate. The one you&#8217;re most afraid of when he faces the Mets in a clutch situation. You don&#8217;t root for players to get hurt, but if he happens to miss the next Mets series with flu-like symptoms, you won&#8217;t object. Even the guys you wish were not in charge. These are your Mets Villains. &#8212; Scott D. Simon (<a href="http://twitter.com/scottdsimon" target="_blank">@scottdsimon</a>)</p>
<h3>Chase Utley</h3>
<p>It’s funny that Chase Utley will now be best remembered by Mets fans for a moment during which he was wearing something other than a Phillies uniform. I might have been able to include Utley here for all of the damage he did during his tenure in Philadelphia. He has slugged 35 homers against the Mets, his most against any team. His former teammates Ryan Howard (45) and Pat Burrell (42) have hit more against the Mets, but Utley always felt like the heart and soul of the Phillies during their successful NL East run from 2007-2011.</p>
<p>If exorcising demons is your thing, it was appropriate that the Mets would run into longtime foes Utley and Jimmy Rollins in last year&#8217;s NLDS against the Dodgers. However, it was no longer cute when Utley made a reckless “slide” &#8212;  really, a rolling block &#8212; into Ruben Tejada in Game 2. And somehow, after a replay review and Tejada getting carted off the field with a broken leg, Utley was allowed to stay at second base (despite never touching it during play). The slide tackle changed the game&#8217;s complexion and clinched Utley’s status as an all-time Mets Villain.</p>
<p>With the series shifting back to New York for Game 3, Citi Field was going to be bonkers even if the Utley play hadn&#8217;t happened. Mets fans waited nine long, frustrating years for the postseason to return to Queens. But the Utley situation ramped up the energy and intensity. As I sat in the stands at Citi Field during player introductions, it felt like the stadium had finally arrived. It was as if Utley had knocked something loose in all of us. It was our home, at long last. And we were happy to let him know it. &#8212; D.J. Short (<a href="http://twitter.com/djshort" target="_blank">@djshort</a>)</p>
<h3>Derek Jeter</h3>
<p>You can make an easy statistical case for Derek Jeter, Mets Villain. His .364 batting average (131-for-360) is third-best all time for players with at least 100 at-bats against the Mets. Indeed, that .364 batting average was Jeter&#8217;s highest <a href="http://m.mlb.com/news/article/75605726/final-stop-mets-provide-yankees-starter-derek-jeter-with-fitting-sendoff" target="_blank">against any team</a> (minimum 40 at-bats). As shown in the chart below, Jeter&#8217;s OPS against the Mets, as compared to his performance against all other teams, ranks 11th in history.</p>
<p><a href="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2016/05/Capture.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-613 size-large" src="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2016/05/Capture-1024x257.png" alt="Capture" width="1024" height="257" /></a>(Huh. Omar Infante. Who knew?)</p>
<p>Superlative regular-season and even World Series statistics aside (in the 2000 Subway Series, Jeter hit .409 and a certain <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OHX8mmuodew" target="_blank">home run</a>, winning the Series MVP), Jeter is a Mets Villain because he represents a paradigm shift in New York baseball fandom. Before Jeter &#8212; and, thus, before his team reached the playoffs every year from 1995 through 2007 &#8212; it was possible to be a New York baseball fan. When your favorite team, the Mets, was on a west-coast swing and you had to go to sleep before the late games started, nobody questioned your choice to turn on the Yankee home game and root for the other local nine.</p>
<p>Now? Supporting the Mets essentially requires you to hate anyone employed by the Steinbrenners. Such negativity has made us less just, has diminished us as Mets fans and as citizens of the Empire State. You know the T-shirt, &#8220;I root for the Mets and whoever&#8217;s playing the Yankees?&#8221; That&#8217;s Jeter&#8217;s fault. &#8212; Scott D. Simon (<a href="http://twitter.com/scottdsimon" target="_blank">@scottdsimon</a>)</p>
<h3>The Wilpons</h3>
<p>Sometimes you&#8217;ll read a magazine profile of someone and come away thinking, Why did they ever agree to that? The pinnacle of the art form &#8212; at least in baseball circles &#8212; might well be Jeffrey Toobin&#8217;s 2011 <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/05/30/madoffs-curveball" target="_blank"><em>New Yorker</em> profile</a> of Fred Wilpon, whose ownership tenure on the field has been a morass of underachievement sprinkled with little blips of excitement. Off the field, there has been a near-endless string of embarrassments, from the Bernie Madoff debacle (which makes up the narrative bulk of Toobin&#8217;s piece and makes Wilpon look clueless, if not downright incompetent) to <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/14/sports/baseball/mets-settle-case-with-executive-who-cited-discrimination-over-pregnancy.html" target="_blank">the discrimination lawsuit involving Jeff Wilpon</a> that was settled last year to the inexplicable reluctance to re-sign Yoenis Cespedes this past offseason after a second-half explosion that led to a shocking World Series run. Bud Selig and MLB have enabled and protected Wilpon and his partners time and again over the years. That policy continues with no end in sight.</p>
<p>The best any pro sports team owner can hope for is to be a neutral party that stays in the background, signs the checks, and doesn&#8217;t inflict any due harm on the franchise. Make no mistake: Fred and the Wilpons are not the direct reason for any of the Mets&#8217; recent celebrations. The Mets have succeeded in spite of the Wilpons and their repulsive decision-making. The subhead on that New Yorker profile: &#8220;Will Fred Wilpon be forced to sell the Mets?&#8221; Oh, we&#8217;re still waiting on that one. &#8212; Erik Malinowski (<a href="http://twitter.com/erikmal" target="_blank">@erikmal</a>)</p>
<h3>Roger Clemens</h3>
<p>Although the 1986 Mets had to face Roger Clemens, that year&#8217;s MVP and Cy Young winner, in the World Series, it was not until 14 years later that Roger would fully establish his villainy toward the franchise. Mike Piazza spent his MLB career owning Roger Clemens (.364/.440/.955). Clemens, a pitcher who put together an undeniably great career, was never afraid to throw at opponents who dared to succeed against him. He famously threw a purpose pitch up and in at his oldest son Koby, after Koby hit a home run against him in a 2006 Spring Training game. Six years earlier (7/8/00) Roger Clemens <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NFScJX1Sf_g" target="_blank">hit Mike Piazza in the head</a> with a fastball. This pitch alone would have been enough to add The Rocket to the list of Mets villains, but he was never one to settle for just qualifying for a list. In game 2 of the World Series that same year, Clemens took his villainy to cartoonish heights when he broke Piazza&#8217;s bat on a foul ball, picked up a shard of bat that went into the field of play, and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNTWUPsPrJ8" target="_blank">threw it at Piazza</a>, who was running down the first base line. The benches cleared and Clemens had forever earned his place on the list of the greatest villains in Mets history. &#8212; Craig Glaser (<a href="http://twitter.com/sabometrics" target="_blank">@sabometrics</a>)</p>
<h3>Terry Pendleton</h3>
<p>Terry Pendleton had a nice career. He won a few gold gloves and an MVP. He compiled ~33 WARP across 15 seasons in the bigs. That is a very good major league ballplayer. In my head, I thought he was a bit better hitter than his .270/.316/.390 final line. Even playing the bulk of his games in the late­ eighties and early nineties, that only comes out to a .252 TAv. He must have been better against the Mets, no? That’s why I must consider him a Mets villain (and it would also explain my misrememberings). Nope, his performance against the Mets was right around his career line. Sure, he played for the mid-eighties Cardinals teams that clashed with Keith, Doc, Darryl and company, but was he more of a pest than Jack Clark or Willie McGee?</p>
<p>I started rooting for the Mets in 1987. In my twenties, I wore this as a twisted badge of honor. I’ve seen things, man, and none of them were a Mets World Series victory. Functionally, of course, I remember very little of the 1987 season. I was five. My Mets fandom comes from my maternal grandparents&#8217; side. They lived in Florida at the time, and when they’d call we’d talk about the Mets box score from the previous night’s game. This is also how I learned how to read, box scores and gamers from the Hartford Courant. A lot of this comes to me second-hand from my parents of course, abiding memories are hard to come by when you&#8217;re five.</p>
<p>I do have one memory of that season though. I hate Terry Pendleton. The culprit was likely <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN198709110.shtml" target="_blank">this game</a>. The Mets had a chance to reel the Cardinals in late in the season. It was a brutal loss looking at the box score. I may have seen the game. I likely read the AP report the next day in the Courant. I don’t remember either of those things, though. I just remember I hate Terry Pendleton. This is silly, of course. I am an adult, I should put away childish things. And I don’t really hate Terry Pendleton nowadays.</p>
<p>But I sort of still hate Terry Pendleton nowadays. &#8212; Jeffrey Paternostro (<a href="https://twitter.com/jeffpaternostro" target="_blank">@jeffpaternostro</a>)</p>
<h3>Shane Victorino</h3>
<p>From 2007 until his inglorious exit from Philadelphia in 2012, no one captured the enmity of Mets fans more than Phila talented switch-hitting centerfielder. Victorino was not, like many of the other players listed here, a traditional “Met Killer.” He put up something very close to his career line in games against the Mets. Victorino doesn’t even have the signature backbreaking moment, just a couple of garden-variety walkoffs like every other longtime division foe. What Victorino was to the Met fan was a constant agitator. He slid a little too hard (and years later, <a href="https://twitter.com/ShaneVictorino/status/653053917723426816" target="_blank">praised another member of this list</a> who slid far too hard). He said a little too much to the media. He did a little too much celebrating on the field, famously mocking Jose Reyes home run celebrations in the 2008 playoffs that the Mets weren’t even in. He’d bend the rules, and then whine to the umpires. He was the perfect player for a rival fan to love to hate.</p>
<p>But baseball fandom also has a funny way of lying to you about these things. When I went back to look at what I remembered as a brutal flying forearm to Reyes in a rundown in 2009, it was more of a <a href="http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/6479266/v4467307/phinym-an-obstruction-call-gets-manuel-ejected" target="_blank">borderline brush to create an obstruction call</a>. And years after their various run-ins, Reyes is currently under <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2016/02/23/rockies-shortstop-jose-reyes-placed-leave-pending-domestic-violence-case/80819588/" target="_blank">indefinite suspension</a> for allegedly slamming his wife through a glass door, while Victorino tries to <a href="http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20160506&amp;content_id=176583918&amp;fext=.jsp&amp;vkey=news_t451&amp;sid=t451" target="_blank">fight his way back</a> to the major leagues. Looking back, I’m not sure I had the right villain in this story. &#8212; Jarrett Seidler <strong><span style="font-weight: 400">(<a href="https://twitter.com/@jaseidler" target="_blank">@jaseidler</a>)</span></strong></p>
<h3>Yadier Molina</h3>
<p>Baseball fans may think of Yadier Molina as a two-way catcher and seven-time all star. But back in 2006, Molina hit .216/.274/.321. To put that in historical perspective, Kevin Plawecki struggled his way to a .241 True Average last year. Molina’s TAv in the 2006 regular season was .201! In the playoffs, Molina must have suddenly discovered how to hit during one of his countless trips to the pitcher’s mound.</p>
<p>With one out in the 9th inning of Game 7 of the NLCS, Molina hit a home run to left that would prove to be the game winner. The 83-win Cardinals then went on to become the worst team to ever win the World Series. Yadier Molina has embraced his role as the leader of a team that relies more on execution, luck and aggravating opponents than power at the plate or on the mound. Instead of being a cult hero like his brothers, Yadier has been dubbed “the evil Molina brother” by many fan bases, starting with the that of the Mets. &#8212; Noah Grand (<a href="https://twitter.com/noahgrand" target="_blank">@noahgrand</a>)</p>
<h3>Pat Burrell</h3>
<p>On the list of Met-killers, perhaps Burrell doesn&#8217;t have the same cache as the Chase Utleys and Chipper Joneses of the world. But if you look at the top-10 home run hitters against the Mets, you&#8217;ll find a laundry list of Hall-of-Famers starting with Willie Stargell (60 anti-Met dingers) and ending with Andre Dawson (36 homers against the Amazins). The only two people in the top 10 neither enshrined in nor heading to Cooperstown are No. 6 Ryan Howard and No. 7 Pat Burrell.</p>
<p>Burrell was a first overall draft pick in 1998, chosen 20 picks ahead of the Mets&#8217; immortal choice of Jason Tyner by the Philadelphia Phillies. For the better part of a decade, he seemed to be around during every Phillies rally, and even after he moved to San Francisco at the end of his career, he<a href="http://m.mlb.com/video/v9969135/?query=Pat%2BBurrell" target="_blank"> still found a way</a> to bring the Mets down. It is forgivable to be a high draft pick, but to be a foundational piece of a Phillies team that won the 2008 World Series? To hit 42 home runs against the Mets, seemingly each and every time I tuned in to watch a New York-Philadelphia tilt? Unforgivable. &#8212; Bryan Grosnick (<a href="https://twitter.com/bgrosnick" target="_blank">@bgrosnick</a>)</p>
<p><em>Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Our Probably Irrational Beliefs About 2016</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/11/our-probably-irrational-beliefs-about-2016/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Apr 2016 09:50:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Mets Staff]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lineup Card]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Curtis Granderson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Wright]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fred Wilpon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jacob deGrom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lucas Duda]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Harvey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Terry Collins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Travis d'Arnaud]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yoenis Cespedes]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=233</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Behavioral economists theorize that human activity is strongly influenced by context, particularly how the world presents us with choices. As Mets fans, however, our animal brains are conditioned to expect the worst. It&#8217;s an evolutionary defense mechanism, protecting us against the horrific memories of 2007 and 2008, when the Mets&#8217; comfortable division leads evaporated in the seasons&#8217; last three weeks. [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Behavioral economists theorize that human activity is strongly influenced by context, particularly how the world presents us with choices. As Mets fans, however, our animal brains are conditioned to expect the worst. It&#8217;s an evolutionary defense mechanism, protecting us against the horrific memories of 2007 and 2008, when the Mets&#8217; comfortable division leads evaporated in the seasons&#8217; last three weeks.</p>
<p>While we recline on the sofa, you can pull up your armchair, psychologist. Open your notebook and analyze what we&#8217;re irrationally freaking out about after a mere five games. &#8212; Scott D. Simon</p>
<h3>Curtis Granderson&#8217;s Fountain of Youth Rations Run Out</h3>
<div class="gmail_default">Remember the age-34 Granderson who hit leadoff last year and slugged 26 homers, posted a cool 5.5 WARP, and finished with a career-high .314 TAv? Man alive, that sure was nice, but that player doesn&#8217;t exist anymore. You see, the age-34 Granderson was relying wholly on a sketchy online retailer&#8217;s supply of the Fountain of Youth&#8217;s finest brew. Now, Grandy&#8217;s small-batch supply from Ponce de León is de le-gone.</div>
<div class="gmail_default"></div>
<div class="gmail_default">The results speak for themselves: A .125 TAv and .211 OBP through four games and 19 plate appearances. Unless some other supplier can come through, this will be the season that age finally catches up with Granderson, who just played his 1,500th career game, and the Mets&#8217; offense will suffer mightily. But when someone suddenly starts playing like they&#8217;re five years younger, there&#8217;s always a sound, logical reason why. &#8212; Erik Malinowski (<a href="https://twitter.com/erikmal" target="_blank">@erikmal</a>)</div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<h3>You Might As Well Call Him &#8220;Mat Harvey&#8221; Because The Way He&#8217;s Going, He&#8217;s Gonna Fall Apart Sooner Or Latos</h3>
<div>This is the story of a highly-regarded young pitcher named Mat who twice made the <i>Baseball Prospectus</i> list of Top 100 prospects before his debut. In his first full season at the major league level, he threw extremely well, fanning over nine batters per nine innings and recording one of the best WHIPs in the National League, good enough to earn down-ballot Cy Young votes. Despite establishing himself as one of the game&#8217;s elite young starters, his strikeout rates dipped, he had a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xIjYlNdfiec" target="_blank">postseason meltdown</a>, and in his age-27 season, he completely fell apart.</div>
<div></div>
<div>This is the story of a highly-regarded young pitcher named Matt who twice made the <i>Baseball Prospectus</i> list of Top 100 prospects before his debut. In his first full season at the major league level, he threw extremely well, fanning over nine batters per nine innings and recording one of the best WHIPs in the National League, good enough to earn down-ballot Cy Young votes. Despite establishing himself as one of the game&#8217;s elite young starters, his strikeout rates dipped and he had a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lPgPr82qi1U" target="_blank">postseason meltdown</a>. Now in his age-27 season and with a poor Opening Day start under his belt, he is basically guaranteed to fall apart.</div>
<div></div>
<div>Matt Harvey is the new Mat Latos. We should have seen it coming. &#8212; Andrew Mearns (<a href="https://twitter.com/MearnsPSA" target="_blank">@MearnsPSA</a>)</div>
</div>
<h3>The Mets Won&#8217;t Have an Offense</h3>
<p>Despite being tied for first fewest runs against in baseball, the Mets are sitting at .500 thanks to an offense that must be part of a magician&#8217;s disappearing act. Currently, the team&#8217;s biggest offensive threat is Michael Conforto, despite his sharing a lineup with three players who&#8217;ve posted seasons of 6+ WARP in their careers. And this was all <i>before</i> getting shut out <span class="aBn"><span class="aQJ">Saturday</span></span> against the Phillies&#8217; pitching staff &#8211; starter Vince Velasquez, he of the career 4.28 DRA, and their bullpen, which my colleague Scott D. Simon <a href="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/10/game-recap-april-9-mets-lose-phillies/" target="_blank">declared &#8220;a who&#8217;s who of whos.&#8221;</a> If the Mets can&#8217;t show off some power against the Phillies, who can they score against? &#8212; Brian Duricy (<a href="https://twitter.com/@briansusername_" target="_blank">@briansusername_</a>)</p>
<h3>The Mets&#8217; Defense is Going to be Awful</h3>
<p>If there’s one glaring weakness for the 2016 Mets roster, it’s defense–and the first four games of the season haven’t really done anything to make us feel good about this aspect of the team. There have only been two errors–Cespedes and Wright earned them–but as we well know by now, errors are a small part of the overall defensive value of a team. Practically no one on the roster has plus range, and if you go starter-by-starter down the lineup, you find maybe one player who is an average or better defender: Travis d’Arnaud. That’s it. Of course it helps to have Juan Lagares waiting in the wings to pick up the center field slack–more on him later this week–but none of the other backups on the team are anything to write home about.</p>
<p>The World Series Mets of 2015 actually had a pretty decent team defense according to Baseball Prospectus’s Park-Adjusted Defensive Efficiency–<a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1918920" target="_blank">they were third overall in baseball</a>. But without standout individual defensive performances, long routes to nowhere in the outfield, and sketchy glovework up the middle … the 2016 Mets might need to hit and pitch better in order to reach the heights of last year. At least their pitchers don’t give up that many balls in play! &#8212; Bryan Grosnick (<a href="https://twitter.com/bgrosnick" target="_blank">@bgrosnick</a>)</p>
<h3>Terry Collins Will Bat Travis d&#8217;Arnaud Eighth All Season</h3>
<p>D’Arnaud is one of the better hitters on the team, but he&#8217;s been at the bottom of the order every game he’s played so far. It seems highly likely that Terry will continue this trend for the foreseeable future, so you might suggest that this is not an irrational fear. The irrationality comes from worrying about lineup order at all. It doesn’t impact the team&#8217;s production very much. Would it be nice to see d’Arnaud (a batter who actually excels against lefties, unlike Neil Walker) hitting in between Duda and Conforto? Sure. Is the current lineup likely to cost the Mets many runs? No. &#8212; Craig Glaser (<a href="https://twitter.com/@sabometrics" target="_blank">@sabometrics</a>)</p>
<h3>Yoenis Cespedes: Not Very Good</h3>
<p>Cespedes&#8217;s homer Sunday was a much-needed salve to a rough start at the plate (just two hits to seven strikeouts leading into yesterday), and while the boo birds are momentarily quieted, it may be just the start of a long and frustrating season. His re-signing was a momentous occasion for fans and for the team, but his career-high 6.4 WARP in 2015 may belie his solid-but-unspectacular plate presence. A year of career averages for him would undoubtedly be considered a great disappointment, and inspire much wailing and gnashing of teeth. PECOTA has him at 25 home runs this season, 10 fewer than last year, and while that&#8217;s perfectly serviceable, it&#8217;s hard to shake the memory of his utter domination of the NL East in 2015. If his move from left to center is as bumpy as it&#8217;s looked so far, time to start polishing the pitchforks. And at age 30, he could start to seriously decline just about any time. Did anyone want to know that PECOTA&#8217;s projected .283 TAv for him is actually lower than the .289 Jason Bay put up in his first year as a Met? Well, now you do. Like I said, it may be a long season. &#8212; Maggie Wiggin (<a href="https://twitter.com/maggie162" target="_blank">@maggie162</a>)</p>
<h3>David Wright Will Wind Up as a Replacement Level Player</h3>
<p>RIP David Wright, or at least the consistently great David Wright. I had concerns about Wright&#8217;s back and his ability to play through it coming into the season. It&#8217;s not wise to extrapolate from a few games of data after an extremely reduced spring training, but we got a glimpse of what could be David Wright&#8217;s future &#8212; failing to catch up with fastballs, his defense limited by the fear of overexerting his lower back. (Wright did play better in game 2, to be fair.) Right now, I don&#8217;t see why every pitcher doesn&#8217;t just pound Wright inside with fastballs. I imagine we&#8217;ll get flashes, a right-center field bomb here or a charging, bare-handed play there, yet I&#8217;m still irrationally freaking out about Wright slipping to replacement level and dragging the offense down as Terry stubbornly keeps him in the 2-hole. &#8212; Lukas Vlahos (<a href="https://twitter.com/lvlahos343" target="_blank">@lvlahos343</a>)</p>
<h3>Jacob deGrom&#8217;s Magic Disappears</h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Jacob deGrom came out of nowhere to take the baseball world by storm in 2014. Two years in, deGrom’s been so consistent and so good that we take it for granted, yet his 2016 might already be spiraling towards Panic City.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Per <a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/landing.php?player=594798" target="_blank">Brooks Baseball</a>, deGrom’s four-seam fastball velocity in his 2016 debut was down 3.43 mph from his 2015 average. It was also the lowest in any start of deGrom’s career &#8212; by 1.07 mph. That’s pretty significant velocity loss, especially for a pitcher whose rising fortunes largely coincided with significant increases in velocity. deGrom’s velocity loss had already been a <a href="http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/mets/jacob-degrom-not-alarmed-by-low-90s-velocity-in-spring-games-1.11602447" target="_blank">notable story</a> </span><span style="font-weight: 400">during the spring.</span></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">Taken in and of itself, deGrom’s velocity dip would be the cause for only mild concern. Now, let’s throw in a mysterious <a href="http://www.nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2016/03/mets_jacob_degrom_scratched_from_start_with_back_s.html" target="_blank">back injury</a> </span><span style="font-weight: 400">that caused deGrom to miss a spring start and sprinkle on top an ongoing, possibly-related <a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/15175711/jacob-degrom-new-york-mets-miss-next-start-right-lat-tightness" target="_blank">lat injury</a> </span><span style="font-weight: 400">that will cause deGrom to miss his next turn in the rotation. Perhaps you recall Steven Matz’s <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/25237782/steven-matz-injury-again-raises-questions-with-mets" target="_blank">lat injury</a> </span><span style="font-weight: 400">last summer progressing from a day-to-day concern to Matz missing the next two months? Let’s hope that doesn’t happen here, because the Mets need a healthy, effective Jacob deGrom in 2016. &#8212; Jarrett Seidler (<a href="https://twitter.com/@jaseidler" target="_blank">@jaseidler</a>)</span></strong></p>
<h3>Lucas Duda Presses and Regresses</h3>
<p>Duda posted a career-high .320 True Average last year. He was a better hitter than Michael Conforto! PECOTA projects Duda to perform as the Mets’ best hitter again this year, with a .283 TAv. Some of that 37 point decline is natural regression and some of it is the aging of a poor contact hitter. My biggest worry about the Mets is that Lucas Duda regresses much more than PECOTA expects him to. Duda posted a .187/.312/.264 slash line last June. He responded with eight home runs in July, but also struck out 36 percent of the time versus only 8 percent walks. I worry that Duda will get in a slump this year that he can’t pull out of. Wilmer Flores to the rescue? &#8212; Noah Grand (<a href="https://twitter.com/noahgrand" target="_blank">@noahgrand</a>)</p>
<h3>Neil Walker Will Succumb To the Mets&#8217; Second Base Curse</h3>
<p>Sure, he&#8217;s hit a homerun and has 5 RBI in just 4 games this season &#8212; but what&#8217;s a little rational thinking to get in the way of a good panic? Remember how hot Daniel Murphy was before the postseason? Remember all those errors in the playoffs? What about the tragic Tejada takedown? The Mets have had a lot of second basemen since 2002 and I&#8217;m not above fear of some vague, Mets second base-related curse. &#8212; Sara Novic (<a href="https://twitter.com/novicsara" target="_blank">@novicsara</a>)</p>
<h3>The Wilpons Have Spent Their Last Cent On The 2016 Roster</h3>
<p>The 2015 Mets spent the fourth-lowest percentage of team revenues in all of baseball. Their bargain-basement postseason pickups of free agents Asdrubal Cabrera and Alejandro De Aza, along with the revenue-neutral acquisition of Todd Walker for Jon Niese, signaled another bottom-third payroll to come. Given recent history, it&#8217;s fair to say that the Yoenis Cespedes <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=28286" target="_blank">signing</a> shocked the world.</p>
<p>On opening day, the Mets&#8217; 2016 payroll <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/sports/mlb/salaries/2016/team/all/" target="_blank">ranked</a> 14th in MLB, at $134 million. That seems appropriate for a team with so many young, cost-controlled players manning the starting rotation, left field, catcher, first base, etc. Still, can&#8217;t you just picture Fred Wilpon turning out his pockets as the trade deadline approaches and the Mets need a quality reinforcement? &#8220;We&#8217;ve spent over $30 million more on salaries than we did last season,&#8221; he&#8217;ll say. &#8220;I can&#8217;t understand why our fans think we have unlimited resources.&#8221; &#8212; Scott D. Simon (<a href="http://twitter.com/scottdsimon" target="_blank">@scottdsimon</a>)</p>
<p><em> Photo Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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