Las Vegas 51s (Triple-A)

Pitcher: P.J Conlon

If you pulled up P.J Conlon’s player page and looked solely at his career minor league stats: 2.85 ERA, 0.67 HR/9, 1.98 BB/9, you wouldn’t be wrong in thinking the Mets have another solid pitching prospect on their hands. What those stats won’t tell you though is that Conlon’s fastball averages just 86 mph; and that folks is why you don’t scout the stat line.

Conlon’s a former 13th round pick that’s surpassed all expectations thus far but honestly, no one’s quite sure how. Standing only 5’11” with a fastball that barely touches 90 mph, it’s honestly perplexing that we’ve even arrived at this point. In need of a spot starter in Cincinnati, the Mets added Conlon to the 40-man roster and he made his major league debut, allowing three runs in 3.2 innings.

Conlon pairs a good changeup with a funky delivery that generates some much-needed deception. The change sits in the mid to high 70s and, while it is his best offering, it just doesn’t generate enough whiffs for Conlon to cut it as a starter in the big leagues. One might think that if Conlon isn’t succeeding via the strikeout, he must be elite at inducing groundballs. That’s not his secret to success either though, as his career groundball rate stands at a middle of the pack 43.08%.

So how exactly has Conlon been able to achieve this level of success? It’s a great question that no one seems able to answer, not even the Mets. Although he’s not going to be a starter in the majors, Conlon has good career splits against lefties and could potentially fill a LOOGY role for some organization.

Hitter: Phillip Evans

I’m honestly not sure if Evans still has prospect eligibility (spoiler alert: he does!) but have you seen the 51s roster recently? It’s rougher than you can even imagine and the reason why Tim Tebow is talked about as a legitimate call-up candidate.

Evans was with the big league club just this Tuesday, but Jose Bautista took his roster spot and poor Phil has to wait for another chance. A former 15th round pick in the 2011 draft, the versatile Evans will turn 26 later this year, his seventh as a pro. He actually made the Opening Day roster but was sent down rather quickly in favor of an almost but not really healed Michael Conforto.

I saw Evans in Vegas last month and while I’m not his biggest fan, I’d much rather see him on the Mets bench than Bautista. Evans won a batting title in 2016 and is showing some improved power this season with nine home runs in 118 at-bats, but he’s yet to get an extended look in the big leagues. It seemed like he was finally going to get his chance when the Mets finally DL’d Yoenis Cespedes but nope, Jose Bautista!

I’m skeptical of Evans’ potential as a major leaguer long-term, but I think he’s deserving of a chance to show why he belongs. A utility man who can play passable infield defense, be an emergency catcher and has some pop is an intriguing player that can provide some value off the bench, especially in the National League. If only the team that employs Jose Reyes could use someone like that…

Binghamton Rumble Ponies (Double-A)

Pitcher: Marcos Molina

Where do I even begin on Marcos Molina? After flashing a plus fastball/slider combo in the lower depths of the system, Molina missed all of 2016 due to Tommy John surgery. Which is fine, considering Tommy John isn’t the death sentence for pitchers that it once was and Molina was still young.

The problem is we’re now two years removed from the operation and Molina’s stuff is still nowhere to be found. After a mediocre 2017 with Binghamton, the Mets sent Molina back again to repeat the level, hopefully with better results. It was a reasonable idea in theory, but the results have been disastrous thus far and that’s a big problem considering Molina’s occupying a 40-man spot.

With Anthony Swarzak seemingly close to a return and in need of a reinstatement to the 40-man, there’s a high possibility that it’s Molina whose roster spot is in jeopardy. That’s because Molina’s been downright awful this season with both Binghamton and Las Vegas. In 36.2 innings for the Rumble Ponies, Molina’s got a 6.14 ERA to go along with a putrid 6.38 K/9 and 3.93 BB/9. He was even worse in Vegas, holding a 9.35 ERA and a 5.19 BB/9 in just eight and two-thirds innings. The possibility of converting Molina to the bullpen is becoming increasingly likely with each passing day, especially considering the Mets are running out of time with him. Having never been known for possessing good command, a move to a relief role could suit both parties well, and it’s likely the only scenario in which Molina keeps his roster spot.

Hitter: Jhoan Urena

It’s hard to believe, but this is Urena’s seventh season as a pro and we’re still waiting for the breakout season above Low-A. I’ve seen Urena a bunch this season and have come away from each look wanting to like him a lot more than I really do. Urena has the look of a future big leaguer with some deceptive athleticism to boot, but he’s yet to put it all together and I’m increasingly worried he never will.

For starters, Urena is awful in right field, where he’s started the majority of games this season for the Rumble Ponies. He’s also played third base and while he’s better there, I have him as a 35, which is just an emergency starter. That means Urena is destined for a future in left or at first, positions where he’s really going to have to hit to justify his position, and I’m just not confident that he’s going to be able to do that.

I should mention that Urena’s battled hamate bone injuries in the past, a pesky injury known to sap power from hitters. Urena has just three home runs this season, which isn’t a surprise considering his swing doesn’t have much loft, but game power is an important part of the profile at first base or left field. That being said, the swing is max effort in all counts and Urena strikes out too much for a guy with this little power.

I’m down on Urena’s chances as a future major league contributor, but I’m still holding out some hope that he can add some more power to his game. It’s been seven seasons though and we’ve yet to see it, so it’s hard to be too hopeful here.

Port St. Lucie Mets (High-A)

Pitcher: Ryder Ryan

Acquired from Cleveland in last year’s Jay Bruce trade, Ryan is off to a really nice start with Port St. Lucie. In his first 16 appearances this season, Ryan’s got a 1.77 ERA and a 23:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 20.1 innings.

I know what you’re thinking: a reliever acquired at the 2017 deadline must be a fastball/slider guy, and well, you’re correct. Ryan sits in the mid-90s with his fastball and complements it with his slider, but not much else. He’s currently running a strikeout rate of 30% to go along with a 6.5% walk rate, which bodes well for a potential future as a high leverage reliever. Ryan is 23 and in A ball but he pitched all of one inning in college, so there aren’t really age concerns here.

What’s really interesting is that Ryan’s numbers were pretty average with the Cleveland organization, but since the trade he’s seemingly found a new gear. The Mets have a proven track record of developing this profile, so Ryan couldn’t have found a better landing spot than New York. If Ryan keeps this up, he’s going to be looking at a promotion to Double-A Binghamton by year’s end. He’s certainly a name to keep an eye on as the season progresses.

Columbia Fireflies (A)

Hitter: Wuilmer Becerra

Becerra came over as an additional piece in the R.A Dickey trade that brought Noah Syndergaard and Travis d’Arnaud to New York back in 2012. He’s flashed potential when healthy but injuries have really slowed his development down, and that’s why we’re talking optimistically about a 23-year-old in A ball.

Becerra’s noteworthy skill is his hit tool, which looks like a 60 at peak. He’s struggled with shoulder injuries, including but not limited to a torn labrum, that have robbed him of his power and ability to throw.

Becerra was held back in extended spring training and has only played five games with the Fireflies, so we don’t have any new information on him yet. If he stays healthy though, this is the sort of player that could break out and turn heads by the end of the year. We’ll need to see a power spike to improve the future outlook, but if he stays healthy, don’t be surprised if Becerra ends the season in Binghamton.

Photo credit: David Kohl – USA Today Sports

UTIL Jeff McNeil

So I wrote up McNeil in week three of the Prospect Watch and concluded that he’s a better Phil Evans, which is exactly what I saw in Binghamton this past Wednesday. In 128 at-bats this season, McNeil’s slashing .328/.407/.719 with more home runs (12) than he combined for (9) in over 1,200 ABs over the past five years. McNeil isn’t your average 26-year-old in Double-A; injuries limited him to only 188 at-bats in the past two seasons, with his last full season coming back in 2015.

It took all of one measly inning to ask myself what McNeil was still doing in Binghamton. In his first at-bat of the game, he worked a 3-2 count against Top 101 prospect Beau Burrows and then promptly punished a curveball that missed middle-middle over the wall in right for a solo home run. It’s a beautiful left-handed swing with natural loft and I don’t think he’s selling out for this new power at the expense of his hit tool. McNeil made loud contact all night — even his outs made it to the warning track — and I thought his approach was way too advanced for Double-A. While McNeil does have pull power, he likes to go to the opposite field and his base hits seem to gravitate toward left center. It never looked like he was trying to do too much at the plate and, in his third at-bat against Burrows, he took a first-pitch fastball down and away for a line drive single to left. I will say that it remains to be seen if McNeil can carry this approach through Las Vegas and the majors, but the early returns are extremely promising.

McNeil didn’t just impress at the plate; he displayed good hands and feet out at second and didn’t look rushed. I think it’s average second base defense at peak, but McNeil has also seen time at third and shortstop, which would be a boon to his value. If the power surge is real, McNeil can be more than a future utility guy; he could be a fringe regular at second. There’s nothing left for him to prove in Binghamton and at 26, McNeil needs to be promoted so the Mets can see what they have here. Whatever it is, I’m confident that it’s better than whatever “value” Jose Reyes is bringing off the bench in Flushing.

LF Tim Tebow

With Juan Lagares out for the season and poor outfield depth in the upper levels of the organization, there’s a chance Tebow may be needed in the major leagues this season. Not to sell jerseys or improve attendance, I mean Tim Tebow may actually be needed for baseball reasons and honestly, credit Tebow and the Mets coaching staff for that. I was as big a skeptic as any when the signing was announced in 2016 but after seeing him four times this season, this really isn’t as crazy as was once thought.

This wasn’t a great look at Tebow — he was 0-4 with two strikeouts — but he didn’t look nearly as overmatched at the plate as he did earlier this season. In my first look back in April, Tebow was swinging through 88 mph fastballs from Dedgar Jimenez. Now, he’s catching up to 94 mph from top pitching prospects. To be fair, he’s still struggling to create meaningful contact against good velocity, but it’s an improvement nonetheless.

In the field, Tebow still needs a ton of reps. Deep fly balls are a struggle and he doesn’t take efficient routes to catchable balls. His footwork isn’t great and it’s like a 40 arm out in left. I’m still concerned about his ability to hit fastballs up in the zone and his two-strike approach needs work, but he’s by no means the laughing stock I expected to see when he was sent to Binghamton.

That being said, I’ve resigned to the fact that Tebow’s going to play in the major leagues and, well, you probably should too. As I previously mentioned, that’s primarily because of the depth, or lack thereof, in the upper levels of the minors. But look, they didn’t sign him to toil away in the minors and Sandy Alderson said this spring that Tebow’s going to play in the big leagues.

1B Peter Alonso

Alonso was in the lineup as the designated hitter, so I was unable to get another look at him in the field. His defense has been far from good in my previous looks, but the Mets have publicly said that they’re satisfied with his progress and believe he’s playable at first. I’ve seen the improvement on ground balls — he hasn’t had trouble on a grounder for me in three looks and he’s actually made a couple of nice plays — but it’s uncomfortable watching Alonso try to catch a pop-up.

I’m not the only one who’s noticed this either, as our own Jeffrey Paternostro saw Alonso two weeks ago and asked me if he’d looked wildly uncomfortable on pop-ups in my looks too. It’s a problem with few solutions and honestly, I’m not sure how much better it’s going to get at this point. The reason we’re even talking about Alonso in the first place is because he can hit and hit for power and if he does that at the major league level, no one’s going to bat an eye when he awkwardly drops a foul ball.

With the word out on Alsono and every pitcher in the Eastern League seemingly pitching around him, he’s cooled down a bit at the dish. Alonso was 0-2 with two walks Wednesday, but he didn’t try to force the issue and didn’t chase a single ball on the evening. He’s running a .475 OBP and I’ve seen enough at this point that I’m confident he should skip Triple-A. I don’t think there’s anything for him to learn in Vegas and the hitting environment isn’t going to tell us anything we don’t already know. Alonso’s ready to be challenged at the major league level. When that actually happens, and it quite honestly already should have (see Soto, Juan), still remains to be seen.

RF Jhoan Urena

Urena started in right for Binghamton Wednesday, but there’s no world, certainly not the one we’re currently living in, in which he’s a right fielder. He had quite possibly the worst misplay I’ve ever seen live, as he misjudged a line drive hit directly at him. Urena stepped forward three steps, then back and jumped to catch the ball, ultimately dropping it.

I saw him at third earlier this season and while he did look much better there, he’s not a third baseman either. He has slow feet and his reaction time isn’t great, which isn’t a good recipe for a big league third basemen. He can be an emergency starter at third, but he’s a first baseman or left fielder in the majors.

Despite having already spent six years with the organization, this season is Urena’s first in Double-A. He’s still only 23 years old and has more than held his own at the dish, slashing .286/.322/.459 thus far. It’s a max effort swing in any count and Urena can get pull happy, especially from the left side. He hits too many infield fly balls, which are basically as good as a strikeout, for my liking. With this defensive profile though, Urena is going to need to show more game power. Improved game power is the difference here between a shot in the majors and a career in the minors.

Photo credit: Gregory Fisher – USA Today Sports

(weekly statistics from games played from 4/20/17-4/26/17, season statistics through 4/26/17)

Las Vegas 51s (AAA)

Amed Rosario, SS

Last week: 11-22, 3 2B, 1 3B, 2 R, 3 RBI, 4 BB, 4 K

Season to date:  .397/.444/.466, 4 XBH, 5 SB 10 K / 6 BB

Yes, we are revisiting Amed Rosario just three weeks into this column. This could be viewed as an indictment of the Vegas roster—and I won’t stop you from drawing that conclusion—but I want to revisit how ready Rosario is for the majors. I don’t actually know the answer to this of course, but a few things to consider.

1. He doesn’t have to be that good to be an upgrade to the current infield situation. I recognize that my Alcides Escobar comparison might not have gone over well with Mets fans for a few different reasons, so let’s try one I made on this week’s pod, Xander Bogaerts (who I have also heard as a Rosario comp). Bogaerts played 144 games as a 21-year old and hit .240/.297/.362. That’s not great. FRAA also had him as a well-below-average defender, which is likely not an issue with Rosario. The only thing worse than scouting the statline is adding up the WARs, but here we go: If Rosario put up the same line with average defense at the 6 (a conservative estimate), he’d essentially be an average regular. He’d also wildly improve the infield defense, allowing Cabrera to slide over to third base where his glove is a better fit. Even if Jose Reyes isn’t quite as  bad going forward, it looks unlikely he’s an everyday option anymore.
2. Sometimes elite prospects are elite for a reason. It’s entirely possible Rosario will just come up and hit the ground running like Francisco Lindor or Carlos Correa or Corey Seager. He’s in that general class as a shortstop prospect and has mashed in the upper minors.
3. And if he struggles badly in his first pass at the majors, it is not a player development nightmare. Rosario is not a shrinking violet who has never experienced failure on the baseball diamond. If he hits .200 for a month, you send him back down with stuff to work on and you can claw back the Super 2 service time if you are so inclined—and the Mets usually are. It is unlikely to “ruin” him as a prospect.

Binghamton…sigh…Rumble Ponies (AA)

Luis Guillorme, SS/2B

Last week: 5-24, 2B, R, 2 RBI, BB, 6 K

Season to date: .313/.380/.391, 2 SB, 12 K / 6 BB

My third piece of advice for people who are serious about writing about prospects is to understand that you can’t be friends with the prospects. You can root for guys—although that had its own dangers as well—but understand that the time is going to come when you have to write someone up as “not-a-major-leaguer.” That’s the gig. They may read it—they all name search Twitter and ironic like those kind of things—but they are not your audience. Guillorme is a guy that I root for. This is not news at Baseball Prospectus. I didn’t jump on him a year early, or put my eye on the line with an aggressive 101 ranking. I didn’t even really write him up as a major leaguer, though plenty of 3s play in the majors. I talked to him once in Kingsport a few years back when he was translating for the Latin players. His father tends to unironically like my tweets about him. But yeah, I root for him.

I think it might be time to write him up as a 4. I didn’t really expect to be updating my priors much on Guillorme during my last look at him opening weekend. And a two-game look isn’t enough to do a full report, but he did look pretty much like Luis Guillorme. Good approach, opposite field hits, savvy base running, smooth actions in the field. Since then, all he has done is  continue to hit, and oh, also stuff like this:

@MiLB @WSDashBaseball Looks familiar for fans of the @RumblePoniesBB and Luis Guillorme pic.twitter.com/iVU3aj5Ufm

— Astro (@Astromets31) April 27, 2017

Why didn’t I write him up as a 4 in Kingsport or Savannah? Well, there wasn’t much physical projection there and his extreme opposite field approach didn’t seem tenable long term. He was a below-average runner, so he wouldn’t be adding that many bunt hits or infield singles to the left of the shortstop against better defenses. He struggled enough with spin that it was tough to see an average hit tool. And there was no game power to speak of to keep major league pitchers from challenging him.

But Guillorme has gotten stronger. He’s kept hitting. He’s added what sure looks like above-average second and third base gloves to his C.V. He’s doing it in Double-A.  The question the scout asked me a couple years ago was “could he hit .220?” The question I am asking myself now is “could he hit .260?” It’s getting harder to bet against him. He’s easy to root for, and that almost makes it harder to bump him a grade. You don’t entirely trust your instincts. But you have to write what you see, and he is starting to look more like a major league piece.

St. Lucie Mets (A+)

Jhoan Ureña 3B/1B

Last Week: 5-14, 3 R, 0 RBI, 6 BB, 0 K

Season to date: .343/.470/.507, 2 HR, 4 SB, 16 BB, 13 K

[normal brain]

Jhoan Ureña is putting up good numbers while playing mostly third base in a difficult hitting environment. He’s a sleeper prospect.

[smart brain]

Jhoan Ureña is double-repeating the level and is not particularly young for it anymore. Guys figure out how to hit a league with enough attempts; call it The Carlos Tocci Effect. A month of this doesn’t make a sleeper prospect. The body is high maintenance. And he’s not likely to be a third baseman long term either.

[really smart brain]

It’s an oversimplification to say that Jhoan Ureña is a double repeater. The initial assignment to St. Lucie was insanely aggressive given his age and experience. He lost most of that season to a hamate issue as well, which can linger and sap power. When you saw him in Brooklyn, he looked like he had the raw ability to do this in Advanced-A. If he had the same injury issues with a more normal assignment path, he might have still ended up starting his age-22 season in St. Lucie, and we’d be less skeptical of this performance.

[electric brain]

If you go to St. Lucie to see Jhoan Ureña, you can get the fried fish at Lola’s every day.

Columbia Fireflies (A)

Merandy Gonzalez, RHP

Last Week: 14.2 IP, 8 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 12 K

Season to date: 28.1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 15 H, 3 BB, 23 K, 0 HR

Jordan Humphreys, RHP

Last Week: 6.2 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 12 K

Season to date: 25.1 IP, 1.42 ERA, 15 H, 3 BB, 34 K, 0 HR

Here’s a few more stat lines:

Tyler Pill, 2012: 51.2 IP, 2.61 ERA, 56 H, 8 BB, 54 K, 3 HR

Logan Verrett, 2012: 64.2 IP, 3.06 ERA, 57 H, 9 BB. 67 K, 7 HR

Rainy Lara, 2013: 50.2 IP, 1.42 ERA, 39 H, 6 BB, 51 K, 1 HR

Luis Cessa, 2013: 130 IP, 3.12 ERA, 136 H 19 BB, 124 K, 11 HR

Gabriel Ynoa, 2013: 135.2 IP, 2.72 ERA, 123 H, 16 BB, 106 K, 9 HR

Rob Whalen, 2014: 62.2 IP, 2.01 ERA, 44 H, 19 BB, 53 K, 2 HR

Casey Meisner, 2015: 76 IP, 2.13 ERA, 59 H, 19 BB, 66 K, 6 HR

Granted, all of those lines were posted pitching home games in Historic Grayson Stadium, which was one of the most extreme pitcher’s park in organized baseball. Early returns suggest Spirit Communications Park only slightly favors the moundsmen. But the larger point here is all kinds of pitching prospects can dominate A-ball hitters. Now, there’s quite a few major leaguers on that list, but no one you would call an impact arm. The impact arms did well here too, mind you. Jacob deGrom also dominated Savannah. Michael Fulmer was quite good as well—though much younger than this cohort. If you can throw your fastball and breaker for a strike, you will get outs.

I like both Humphreys and Gonzalez as prospects. And I normally group them together in my mind because the profile is very similar: Stocky righties who are physically mature, fastballs in the low 90s that can touch higher, a curve that will flash average or even better, and existent changeups that they don’t really need at the moment. Both are too good for this level, and I don’t anticipate either being here past the 1st half break. But just keep in mind that even this level of dominance in the South Atlantic League doesn’t override the reports. And the early reports from this season haven’t indicated major changes from what I saw last summer.

Photo credit: Reinhold Matay – USA Today Sports