The Mets.com subhead says it all: “Collins opts to sideline Cabrera as Mets gear up for lefty-heavy stretch.” Asdrubal Cabrera sat out from May 14 to the 25 with a sprained left thumb. Apparently, the Mets brought Cabrera back to the active roster when the switch-hitter was still in pain while hitting from the right side against left-handed pitching. In other words, Mets brass was so eager to shut down the “Jose Reyes can’t be the starting shortstop” meme that they disregarded the incomplete nature of Cabrera’s rehab. (But not so eager as to promote Amed Rosario before the Super 2 deadline.)

Setting aside that the Mets can’t keep anyone remotely upright, why is Terry Collins credited with the decision to send Cabrera back to the 10-day disabled list? How is the manager in charge of decisions more appropriately made by the medical staff? Does that mean Terry is also to blame for bringing Asdrubal back before he was fully healthy?

ESPN’s Keith Law recently bestowed Collins with the “Teflon Terry” moniker. He’s presiding over a team projected to win the division — or at least a wild card. Instead, it’s struggling to reach .500. You take the converse of that fact pattern — a mediocre roster contending for a playoff spot — and you’re talking about the Manager of the Year. Can we start a campaign to award Terry Collins the Bizarro Manager of the Year?

MEANWHILE, the Cubs sent 18 batters to the plate during the second and third innings. Eight of them scored. Cubs 14, Mets 3.

Punditry

Mets pitchers walked 12 Cubs and allowed five home runs. Former Mets savior Jay Bruce had the Mets’ highlight of the game when he pulled back a Kyle Schwarber eighth-inning parabola to avoid further embarrassment.

I mean, Mets *relief* pitchers batted three times last night, or three times more than Mets starter Zack Wheeler came to the plate. Think about it: The game was such a depressing blowout that not only did Wheeler get knocked out before he could come to the plate, but Collins determined it was more valuable to suffer through extended Josh Smoker and Neil Ramirez appearances than to increase the chance of a comeback by sending up real hitters. With no off-day on Thursday, I can’t say I blame him.

The contest was so unwatchable that Gary, Keith, and Ron cracked open the box of old Topps in the sixth inning. They were literally flipping through baseball cards and telling stories about the players they found throughout the game’s last three innings, Gary keeping half an eye on the action. Were you still watching in the bottom of the ninth when Neil Walker and Lucas Duda went back-to-back off Felix Pena, the very last guy in the Cubs’ bullpen? Were you watching when Jose Reyes swung and missed at a 58-foot slider for the final out?

If the guys paid to watch the game couldn’t be bothered to do so, what’s in it for the fans?

Social Media

The Mets just announced in the press box that "Yoenis Cespedes was removed because of the game situation." I've never heard that one before.

— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) June 14, 2017

GKR-isms

“Last night, Jacob deGrom was the first Met to throw a shutout at home since Jon Niese in 2013.” — Gary

“Tonight, Zack Wheeler was the first Met to throw 46 pitches in an inning since… Jon Niese in 2013.” — Gary

“It’s a double Jon Niese bonanza!” — Gary

Forecast

Every time fans think the Mets’ season can’t get any worse, we suffer through a 4 6 3 3 4 5 1 line from Josh Smoker, a much better performance than the one produced by the Mets’ starting pitcher. It’s the kind of performance that produces more questions than answers. Tonight, former Mets ace Matt Harvey faces glorified swingman Mike Montgomery in the series’s rubber game.

Photo Credit: Brad Penner – USA TODAY Sports 

What wasn’t memorable about that night, though, was the team around Santana. The 2012 Mets were, well, not very good. There were a lot of bad players on that team. Now, a lot has happened in the five years since that day for both the Mets as a team, and all of these players who were on the team that night. And while we know what’s happened to the Mets since then, we might not know what has happened to all of the players who were on that team. So let’s check in with all the players who were on the Mets’ 25-man roster on June 1, 2012, and see how things have gone for them over the last 1,825 days.

Lucas Duda, Daniel Murphy, R.A. Dickey, and David Wright: These are the only four players left from that game who are still on MLB rosters right now. We don’t really need to catch up with these guys, because we know all about how they’re doing. Duda is now a Good first baseman, Murphy is a star on the Nationals, and Dickey’s having a rough time of it on the Braves. Let’s not talk about Wright.

Mike Baxter: Baxter famously destroyed his body to preserve the no-hitter, but that was pretty much his peak. After the 2013 season, he was claimed off waivers by the Dodgers, whom he played literally one MLB game for in 2014. In 2015, he signed on with the Cubs, and had a cup of coffee in the big leagues with them, but didn’t fare well. He spent last year in the Mariners’ minor league system, but did not sign back with them for 2017. He remains a free agent, and his baseball career may be all but over.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis: And here I thought I never had to spell that name again. The former high school football player has spent the last two seasons with the Brewers, and has done exactly how you think he has. Last year, he walked 14% of the time, played solid defense, posted a .176 ISO, and struck out 33.9% of the time. This year, he was designated for assignment and later sent to Triple-A after a 2-for-25 start with 15 strikeouts. He’s still Kirk Nieuwenhuis.

Ike Davis: The no-hitter occurred before the Ike Davis ship had completely sunk, but the iceberg had been struck and the lower levels were beginning to flood. The Mets correctly chose Lucas Duda over Davis in 2014, and since then Davis has been released by the Pirates, Athletics, Rangers, and Yankees. His last MLB stint came last year on the Yankees for eight games. He then signed with the Dodgers this offseason, where he is now buried on the first base depth chart behind Adrian Gonzalez, Cody Bellinger, and apparently Chase Utley.

Josh Thole: He put up a 29 wRC+ in 50 games last year with the Blue Jays, and is now in the Diamondbacks’ minor league system. He underwent surgery over the offseason to repair a torn hamstring and is estimated to be out until around August.

Omar Quintanilla: After his Mets career ended, Quintanilla had a two-game stint in the Rockies minor league system before heading off to the Mexican League. He’s spent the last two years getting very infrequent playing time for Toros de Tijuana, totaling only 27 PAs over these past two seasons.

Jon Niese: Niese is still in the Yankees system and has been working in extended spring training.

Dillon Gee: Gee is pitching for the Rangers Triple-A affiliate. He has a 3.88 ERA in nine starts in the PCL so far, and has made one appearance for the Rangers’ MLB team.

Bobby Parnell: Parnell was exiled from the Mets after his disastrous 2015, and hasn’t had much success since then. He went to the Tigers last season and pitched only 5.1 innings in the majors, and this season is pitching in Triple-A for the Royals. He owns a 4.71 ERA in 21 innings so far.

Vinny Rottino: Did you know Rottino played on the 2012 Mets? Well he did, and he was on the 25-man roster for the no-no. He’d floated around the minor leagues since 2012, and finally retired from baseball last September. Hopefully he can now start up a pizza roll business and call it Rottino’s Pizza Rolls.

…That was a funny joke and you should laugh at it.

Andres Torres: Torres retired from baseball after 2014 after playing his final season in 2013 for the Giants. Sadly, Torres lost his wife, Soannie, to cancer this past December at the age of 37. Torres is still heavily involved in the Bay Area community, and is doing what he can to inspire inner city kids.

Scott Hairston: Jerry’s younger brother spent time with the Cubs and the Nationals in the two years after his Mets tenure ended. He was signed by the White Sox before the 2016 season, but was released after spring training. He technically remains a free agent, though it certainly looks as if his playing days are over.

Mike Nickeas: The non-elite prospect played one MLB game for the Blue Jays in 2013 after the Mets traded him, and retired from baseball in 2015. He went back to Georgia Tech to complete his degree in business administration last year, and now serves as the volunteer bench coach on the Georgia Tech baseball team. He was also the bench coach for the Great Britain National Team in the WBC qualifiers last fall.

Jordany Valdespin: Released by the Mets because of numerous attitude issues, Vladespin spent time with the Marlins and Tigers before heading to the Mexican League this year. He was promptly released in April by Leones de Yucatan after just 14 games with them because they couldn’t stand him either. However, he signed on to play for Olmecas de Tabasco just two days later, and he’s hitting .371/.470/.556 in 34 games with them. So that’s good. Valdespin is also now immortalized on Mets pre-and-post-game shows with Nelson Figueroa’s daily “I’m the Man Right Now” segments.

What’s more, the awful music video for the terrible rap song about him was removed from YouTube for some reason, though the atrocity still exists in audio form. As of this writing, that video has 11 views, and at least three of them are from me.

Jeremy Hefner: After two Tommy John surgeries, Hefner decided to retire from professional baseball this past January at the age of 31. It’s a sad end for Hefner, who looked like he had some potential as a useful fifth starter/swingman, which the Mets could really use right about now. But Hefner is now serving as an advance scout for the Twins, and continues to keep a strong social media presence along with his wife, Sarah.

Jon Rauch: Arguably the Mets’ best reliever in 2012, Rauch and his neck tattoos last pitched for the Marlins in 2013. He’s retired now, and owns a car shop called Bullpen Garage in Tucson, Arizona. According to the shop’s site, it is dedicated to off-road and 4×4 vehicles.

Ramon Ramirez: You may remember Ramirez as the guy who pulled his hamstring running in from the bullpen in the celebration after the no-hitter. After an unsuccessful season with the Mets in 2012, he had minor league stints with the Giants, Mariners, Orioles, Angels, and the Mexican League from 2013-2016, though he’s not signed anywhere for this season. He also has the most detailed Wikipedia page I’ve ever seen for a journeyman reliever.

Elvin Ramirez, Frank Francisco, Jack Egbert: These were relievers on the 2012 Mets. They were on the 25-man roster on June 1, 2012. They are no longer in baseball. This is the most information I could find about any of them.

Tim Byrdak: Byrdak was also a victim of anterior capsule surgery. He went under the knife in 2012, and it basically ended his career. He was able to return to the Mets in 2013, but only for a handful of innings, and has not played baseball anywhere since then. He has dabbled in announcing, even calling a few Mets spring training games with Josh Lewin in 2014, but he’s since gone back to college and is currently attending Robert Morris University working towards a degree.

Johan Santana: Santana made only 10 more starts in his MLB career after his no-hitter. He had a second anterior capsule surgery in 2013, which many thought would end his career, but to his credit, has tried his best to make a comeback.

Santana signed with the Orioles in 2014 on a minor-league deal. On June 6 of that season, he tore his Achilles tendon and missed the rest of the season. In 2015, he attempted another comeback, but halted his comeback attempt once again due to a toe infection. He went unsigned in 2016, though his agent said he was still trying to comeback. Reports were that Santana was going to pitch in the Venezuelan Winter League over the offseason, though I was unable to confirm if he actually did.

Santana, now 38, has likely seen his playing career come to an end. Nobody can deny the valor he showed towards the end, gutting out a 134-pitch effort while not fully recovered from major surgery and continuously trying to fight his way back into baseball, but it never worked out for him. Santana was legitimately one of the best pitchers in baseball for a decade, and his Mets career outside of the no-hitter may forever go underappreciated as well, due to the way it ended and the amount of money he was owed.

***

This was a bad team. There were other players not mentioned here, because they were not on the 25-man roster on June 1, 2012, due to injury. Jason Bay, Ruben Tejada, Ronny Cedeno, and Miguel Batista are a few of the names left off this list, and it’s probably a good thing they were. The fact that Santana was able to throw his no-hitter with this cast of characters around him makes it all the more impressive.

Photo credit: Kate Feldman

At the opposite end of the wheeling-and-dealing spectrum is former Met pitcher Jerry Dipoto. Dipoto’s made 35 trades since taking over as Mariners general manager just 15 months ago. By contrast, during that time Alderson’s acquired only five players (that is, not PTBNL or cash) in trades: Jon Niese for Neil Walker; Akeel Morris for Kelly Johnson; Antonio Bastardo for Jon Niese; Dilson Herrera for Jay Bruce; and Erik Manoah for Fernando Salas. There’s probably a happy medium between five deals and 35. We’re going to thread that needle. Here, in the baseball purgatory that is January, we speculate on the quality and quantity of trades Dipoto would make if given the keys to the Mets’ roster. — Scott D. Simon (@scottdsimon)

Dipoto Deals For Character

Mets acquire RHP Hunter Strickland and UT-S Jimmy Rollins from San Francisco Giants for OF-L Jay Bruce, UT-S Jose Reyes, RHP Rafael Montero and $5 million.

Mets acquire OF-R Andrew McCutchen and $5 million from Pittsburgh Pirates for OF-L Michael Conforto, RHP Jeurys Familia, and UT-R Gavin Cecchini.

The Giants need a left fielder. Their current depth chart at the position lists Mac Williamson, Jarrett Parker and Gorkys Hernandez, who combine for a career WARP of 1.2. We know the Mets can’t move Jay Bruce at his $13 million salary for anything of value. Throwing in Sacks O’Cash and Jose Reyes, a potential +1 WARP switch-hitting utility guy making the league minimum, however, could bring back a short reliever with dominant stuff (if not results), and a much older utility guy on a minor-league invite. Especially if the Mets pay down a portion of Bruce’s salary. Montero might or might not ever become a big-leaguer, but it surely won’t happen in New York.

From all appearances, Michael Conforto has no place in New York either. Between the Mets re-signing Cespedes and picking up Bruce’s option, team brass has shown no desire to give their former first-round draft pick an unobstructed path to playing time. The Pirates have expressed ongoing interest in moving their franchise player. So why not flip Conforto, an All-Star capital-C Closer, and the Mets’ number-9 prospect (another former first-round pick) for a win-now outfielder whose declining range in the pasture is still probably better than that of Cespedes or erstwhile center fielder Curtis Granderson? Familia is by no means expendable, but with Strickland in the fold, his replacement is already in-house. Play with the cash coming back from Pittsburgh if you feel one side’s getting the better end of the bargain.

Do these deals make the Mets a better team? If we’re talking solely about on-field performance: Maybe! That’s the essence of a Dipoto trade diptych, after all. Indisputably, though, the deals make the Mets a better team to root for. There’s nothing like exchanging two accused domestic violence offenders for Roberto Clemente Award winners. Between Granderson, McCutchen and Rollins, the Mets would have the last three recipients of the honor given to the player who best represents the game of baseball through sportsmanship, community involvement and positive contributions, both on and off the field. Who says there’s no such thing as team chemistry? — Scott D. Simon (@scottdsimon)

Dipoto Chooses his Chasen

Mets acquire LHP Chasen Shreve from Yankees for RHP Chasen Bradford.

It was an opportunity that Jerry just couldn’t pass up. There are only three Chasens in MLB history and two of them played in New York, so relocation wouldn’t be a problem for the Yankee. The third Chasen had the boorish manners of a Yalie. No time for that.

Jerry had to make the move, even if it was just a reliever-for-reliever swap. How could he turn down this opportunity? The Mets hired him for a reason. He was Chasen history. — Andrew Mearns (@MearnsPSA)

Dipoto Nabs Nate

Mets acquire RHP Nate Jones from White Sox for RHP Jeurys Familia and OF-L Brandon Nimmo.

It would benefit the Mets to move on from Jeurys Familia, and not just because of the domestic abuse allegations. For a team on the Wild Card bubble, every win matters, and Familia is likely to miss dozens of games at the start of the season. And he’s expensive.

So let’s swap him out to the White Sox for their cheaper, older, slightly inferior reliever in Nate Jones. The Sox can afford to wait until Familia comes back, then flip him to a contender for a sizable prospect haul. As a reward, they get Brandon Nimmo, who actually ends up their Opening Day center fielder. –Bryan Grosnick (@bgrosnick)

Dipoto Unites with Yusmeiro and Signs Smith

Mets sign free agent RHPs Yusmeiro Petit and Joe Smith

One thing the New York Mets definitely know is that you can never have too many (relief) pitchers. Joe Smith is most remembered for his weird arm angle positioned somewhere between side-arm and submarine. The Mets traded him away back in 2008 for JJ Putz, who ended up being a putz (Yiddish for worthless person) during his one-year tenure as a member of the Mets. But Joe Smith went on to be successful with the Indians, Angels and Cubs, having pitched more than 70 games in five of the past six seasons. He would be able to eat some innings in case the Mets don’t want the young starting rotation going late into the game.

Yusmeiro Petit never actually pitched for the New York Mets but instead was traded as a prospect in the Carlos Delgado deal. He can serve as a long reliever or a spot-starter when the Mets want to give their starters an extra day of rest. Since being traded from the Mets he has played for the Marlins, Diamondbacks, Giants and Nationals as well as a short stint in the Mexican League. His career is most remembered for retiring 46 batters in a row in 2014. Mets fans are desperate for a move. While this wouldn’t fulfill desparate Jay Bruce trade fantasies, it would at least make Mets fans content knowing they have a few more relief options, especially when Familia starts the season suspended. — Seth Rubin (@sethrubin)

Dipoto Flips Franchises

Mets acquire Chain-L In-N-Out Burger from West Coast for Chain-R Shake Shack.

Last year Shake Shack moved out west, opening five Los Angeles area locations to complement their better known home in the northeast, including at Citi Field. We know Jerry Dipoto loves cross-country trades, and I don’t think he would stop with the players. Dipoto was a GM in Southern California for years, and SoCal hamburger eaters swear by In-N-Out. If Dipoto went east, he’d probably swap Citi Field’s Shake Shack for an In-N-Out because the family-owned business won’t expand to the East Coast by choice.

What better way to go down as the king of lateral moves than flipping one regional hamburger franchise for another? It won’t be long before fans start sharing In-N-Out’s secret menu on the train coming to and from the game! — Noah Grand (@noahgrand)

Dipoto Requires Respect

Mets acquire OF-L Colby Rasmus for OF-R Juan Lagares

Scrolling through baseball Twitter, Jerry Dipoto was appalled that he wasn’t the talk of the tweets. Instead, the confusing moves made by the Tampa Bay Rays drew the wonder and ire of commentators, and Jerry couldn’t stand for that. The Rays would not be the only team making ineffective, quasi-useless moves this offseason.

So he did what Dipoto does best: he traded inconsistent outfielder Juan Lagares for declining outfielder Colby Rasmus, a recent Rays pickup, and looked quite satisfied with himself. In his trading frenzy he was unaware that he allowed the Rays to once again make a befuddling move, and his pride was so great in this action that he sent a note to the Rays front office: I am the one who trades. — Brian Duricy (@briansusername_)

Dipoto Sends Himself

Mets acquire GM-R Jerry Dipoto from Mariners for future considerations.

Dipoto swayed softly in his ergonomic chair – the same model he had purchased for the entire front office. “Office comfort is the new market inefficiency,” he said at the time. He didn’t know if he still believed it. He didn’t know what he believed anymore.

The coffee on his desk had long since grown cold. He eyed the bourbon on his shelf for warmth instead. “No,” he decided after letting his eyes linger a moment longer. Last time he touched the stuff he woke up with a nine-figure bill for Josh Hamilton. He needed something, though. “Another speedy outfielder, of course. Probably a LOOGY or two, maybe a…” – his thoughts trailed off. It wouldn’t be enough. It never was. He needed more. Seattle wasn’t enough, he wanted to be a bigger star than a Beane or Epstein. He couldn’t do that in Seattle. “But where?” He did not know where the next thought came from – destiny, perhaps – but it was vivid. A third horse. A third amigo. Dipoto, Thor, and Yo. He thumbed down to “Alderson” in his phone… — Brock Chenier (@BrockChenier)

Photo Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

It should be noted, though, that Matz is not just the latest Mets pitcher to succumb to an injury—he’s one of several pitchers from last year’s playoff teams to be taken out of action; the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw has spent the entire season out of play with a herniated disc, and his scheduled return for the season’s final games is still in question, while the Cubs’ John Lackey (of the Cardinals in 2015) and Héctor Rondon were both deactivated Friday for shoulder and triceps soreness, respectively. The Nationals, near contenders in 2015, also lost Stephen Strasburg to the DL Monday with a sore elbow. (RIP my fantasy baseball team.)

Like my colleague Andrew Mearns, I’m not one to argue that the occasional high pitch count is career-destroying. But a look at this list of pitchers, all of whom who played hard, high-pressure seasons and all but Strasburg who pitched into the postseason, does smack of fatigue. The subject has been hot on the BP Mets site of late, with writers calling for Matz’s shutdown, weighing the same question with respect to Syndergaard, and making the broader argument against ruining the Mets’ 2017 for the sake of the fiery remains of this season.

For the Mets, losing Matz from the starting rotation—one already weakened by a broken, then really broken Harvey—might just be the death rattle of the team’s playoff bid. The only hope now is (1.) Céspedes hits a home run in every at bat and/or (2.) the bullpen X-Men morphs into an amazing starting rotation. Of course the bullpen is also tired, with a collective 8.02 ERA for the past 10 games. Still, if a come-from-behind Mets miracle is going to clinch the wild card race, it’s going to have to come from these guys, who, increasingly as they approach the plate, I don’t recognize at all. So, for my own education’s sake, here’s a look at the few of the Mets’ less-than-star pitchers, who are—no pressure—responsible for carrying our 2016 hopes and dreams. To start:

Jonathon Niese

How has this happened!? you despair. We all know Niese, much as many of us may wish to un-know him. Seeing his name kind of makes me want to cry. Seeing his face under a Mets hat again kind of makes me want to punch it. But as of this writing (Tuesday afternoon) he is tonight’s starting pitcher, so it’s worth taking a look at his work in 2016. Niese, who spent most of the season in Pittsburg after being traded for Neil Walker, has pitched 28 games with 19 starts for a total of 120.7 innings. He’s 8-7 with zero saves and an ERA of 5.30. Sigh.

(Editor’s Note: Welp. That didn’t last long.)

Robert Gsellman

The 23-year-old righty was called up from Triple-A after Matz was sent to the DL. This year, Gsellman was 3-4 in 11 starts at Binghamton with 66.3 innings pitched and an ERA of 2.71; in Las Vegas he struggled, going 1-5 in 9 starts and 48.7 innings pitched with an ERA of 5.73. On the bright side, he’s used to those starting nerves, and his combined 2016 ERA of 4.22 is better than Niese’s.

Seth Lugo

Hey, so this isn’t so bad! Lugo pitched a solid six innings on August 19 in San Francisco, his first start in the majors. Sure, the rest of the team flushed that good start down the toilet, but it was still a pleasant surprise to see Lugo outkick his statistical coverage. In Triple-A Vegas this year, Lugo went 3-4 in 14 starts with an ERA of 6.50. But, that combined with last week’s start and his 9 other major league outings put him at a 2016 ERA of 4.77, which is still better than Niese’s.

Josh Smoker

Speaking of guys who messed up Lugo’s good start—Josh Smoker made his major league debut in the third of an inning in which he gave up two runs to San Francisco that night. The 27-year-old lefty, the Nationals’ first-round draft pick in 2007, fared better in Vegas, where he was 3-2 with three saves over 52 games and 57 innings pitched. Given his rocky foray into the majors last week, his ERA is not better than Niese’s, but the Mets are expected to give Smoker another shot tonight, so redemption is near.

Gabriel Ynoa

This 23-year-old righty is another pitcher to make his debut in the majors this August. Ynoa pitched three innings in three games and struggled, giving up four runs, but his overall performance for the year has been much stronger; In Vegas he started 24 games and went 11-5. Because he’s so young and has been such a promising starter in the minors, I’d be keen to see Collins take another chance with Ynoa on the mound.

Erik Goeddel

I must have blinked and missed this guy (a few times), because the Mets have been calling Goeddel up since 2014. This year he pitched 28 games for the Mets and 21 for Triple-A Vegas, actually faring slightly better in the majors than he did out west (4.18 vs 4.94 ERA). He pitched well for the Mets in 2015, going 1-1 in 35 games with a 2.43 ERA. Also, talk about sibling rivalry—Erik is the brother of Tyler Goeddel, the 23-year-old left fielder who debuted with the Phillies this year.

Sean Gilmartin

Gilmartin pitched well as a Met last year—he went 3-2 and posted a 2.67 ERA over 50 games. In 2016, he struggled, giving up 11 hits over nine innings in the five games he played in the majors. He fared better later in the season in Triple-A, going 9-7 in 18 starts. Fingers crossed he’s ready to come back and crush it?

Jim Henderson

After a stint in the minors in 2015, Henderson joined the Mets to go 1-2 across 31 games (25.3 innings) this year. Every time I turn around Henderson is either being called up or sent down to Vegas, but I for one am happy to see him on the 25-man roster. The 33-year-old was originally drafted by the Expos, traditionally a team from which many great Mets have come, so I’ll take it as a good omen. Plus, his ERA for 2016—4.50 in the minors and 4.26 in the majors—is better than Niese’s.

Here’s hoping to a speedy recovery for Matz, and that the young talent can pick up at least some of the slack in the final games of the season. Meanwhile, I’ll be watching with one eye shut as #49 takes the mound tonight.

Photo Credit: Lance Iversen-USA TODAY Sports

Robert Gsellman bailed out the injured Jon Niese. Mets 6, Cardinals 3.

Discussion and Analysis

That the Mets would miss Jon Niese was supposed to be a #HotTake when I predicted it on April 4. Truth be told, despite his reacquisition on Aug. 1, the Mets have not appreciated Niese’s second act: Prior to the game, the team tweeted out his 9.28 Mets ERA rather than his seasonal 5.30 mark. Maybe somebody in Mets PR misread Baseball Reference. Maybe it was a brilliant subtweet. Either way, were it not for Matt Harvey and Steven Matz’s injuries and Zack Wheeler’s rehab setback, Niese would be nowhere near the Mets’ rotation.

He may never be again. Niese left after just four batters — walk, laser to left field that Cespedes picked off his shoetops, walk, single — having reaggravated his knee injury, so we lost an opportunity to see whether it’s at all predictive that Niese is 55-3 for his career when staked to a three-run lead.

Niese’s exceedingly early exit led to Robert Gsellman’s major-league debut with runners on first and second. His first big-league pitch, to Yadier Molina, was crushed to right-center field for a run-scoring double. Gsellman promptly settled down, getting Jhonny Peralta to ground out and striking out Jedd Gyorko. Gsellman threw first-pitch strikes to eight of the first nine batters he faced. He ended up throwing 75 pitches and allowing just 2 hits over 3 2/3 innings. Suffice to say, Gsellman is more likely to make the next start in this rotation spot than is Jon Niese.

The Mets started tonight 4.5 games back of the Cardinals in the Wild Card race (five in the loss column). If there’s any hope remaining for a playoff berth, it starts with this series. And the Mets started this series with a purpose. In the first inning, Jose Reyes walked and Asdrubal Cabrera singled. After Yoenis Cespedes popped to second, Wilmer Flores hit a fly ball to left field that Gary Cohen called as a sacrifice fly… and then as a three-run homer.

After Niese blew the lead and left the game, the Mets came up in the second tied at three. As they did in their first time at bat, the Mets made a statement. Travis d’Arnaud singled with one out, allowing Gsellman to sacrifice bunt in his first MLB plate appearance. Reyes then snuck a grounder under the glove of Cardinals “shortstop” Gyorko to plate d’Arnaud. Next man up Asdrubal Cabrera duplicated Molina’s first-inning slugging to double home Reyes. Cabrera and Reyes reached base in seven of their 10 plate appearances to drive the Mets’ offense.

The rest of the game wasn’t pretty, aside from a 461-foot Justin Ruggiano moonshot. After Gsellman navigated through the fourth inning, Josh Smoker, Jim Henderson, Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia preserved the win.

Contemporaneous Thoughts

Between Justin Ruggiano and Wilmer Flores, it's a bad idea to start a southpaw against the Mets.

— Scott D. Simon (@scottdsimon) August 24, 2016

GKR-isms

— Gary

“I can give my hits away now that I’m not playing, so I kinda rubbed up against [Jay Bruce] to try to give him a couple of my hits… I saved them, put them in the freezer.” — Keith

“You have cryogenic hits?!” — Gary

“It’s bad karma [to bring a bat up with you from the minor leagues].” — Keith

Coda

With their win last night, the Mets picked up a game in the playoff race against Washington, Miami and St. Louis. Aces up tonight at 8:15 p.m.: Jacob deGrom versus Carlos Martinez.

Photo Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

With Matt Harvey out for the rest of the season, the Mets have turned to Logan Verrett as a replacement. Verrett was a solid option in his rookie season, striking out 20.5 percent of opposing batters while walking 7.9 percent. In 2016 he has faced 360 opposing batters, striking out 15.3 percent of them while walking 10.3 percent. These are awful numbers even for a fifth starter. There were only been 11 pitchers who have combined this level of wildness and low strikeout rates while facing at least 300 batters before the trading deadline from 2010-14 (I can’t add 2015 to my Retrosheet-based database without a working Windows machine.) Three of them didn’t pitch in the majors after the deadline that season. Three more pitched but faced less than 150 batters. Only five took a regular turn in the rotation after the deadline.

It’s hard to know exactly what to expect from Verrett from the rest of the season. We know he has been really bad so far, but he hasn’t been a full time starter this year. If you read Baseball Prospectus on a regular basis, small sample size is probably a part of your vocabulary. However, it’s a bad idea to assume that Verrett will “regress to the mean” just because he was one of the worst pitchers in the majors through the trade deadline. Players perform at their talent level, plus or minus a certain amount of random chance. Line drives sometimes get caught. Umpires can make mistakes that hurt or help a pitcher. Over the course of a season, things like umpire mistakes should balance out to some degree. This means if a pitcher has the same underlying level of talent throughout the season, then their walk and strikeout rates should get closer to their talent level, not the league average.

To try and explain how this works, I took every pitching season where a pitcher faced at least 300 batters before August 1 and 150 batters on August 1 or later. I chose this number to try and get more pitching seasons than would qualify for the ERA title. If I chose a higher batters faced threshold I would get fewer seasons but also less variance in how someone performed in each part of the season. Working with my database of 2010-14, I have 541 qualifying pitcher-seasons. For starters, let’s look at the range of walk rates after the trade deadline.

To compare of how pitchers performed before and after the trading deadline, I had to drop pitchers who didn’t face enough batters after the deadline. We should see what statisticians call a survival bias in the distribution I provided. Pitchers who walked at least 10 percent of opposing batters should be much more likely to get dropped from the sample unless they improve their performance enough to keep their jobs. The high walk rate pitchers who were able to stay in the rotation did cut their walk rate from 10.97 percent to 9.97 percent. This difference is statistically significant at the 0.001 level. The other pitchers in my database, as an aggregate group, did not show improvement. However, the high walk rate pitchers didn’t get close to the 7.16 percent average walk rate for all pitchers in my database.

It’s hard to know what part of this improvement is statistical regression to the mean after an unlucky start, what part is pitchers making mechanical changes to keep their jobs, and what part is teams replacing erratic pitchers. What scares me is that the survival bias isn’t stronger. A majority of the pitchers who had a walk rate over 10 percent and kept their spot in the rotation after the trade deadline kept walking one out of every 10 batters over the break! Gio Gonzalez, Francisco Liriano and C.J. Wilson are repeat offenders. Here is the overall distribution of walk rates after the trading deadline for pitchers who walked at least 10 percent of batters before the deadline.

It’s hard to know where Logan Verrett will fall in this distribution if he gets to keep his job as the Mets fifth starter. Walk rates are the second most consistent statistic for pitchers on a year-to-year basis, according to Benjamin Baumer and Andrew Zimbalist’s “The Sabermetric Revolution.” This is also true on a pre-deadline to post-deadline basis. Since my post deadline sample size is smaller (150 batters faced vs. their 250 minimum for the season), the correlation drops from 0.629 between seasons to 0.570 within a season. This suggests that overall, the pre- to post- deadline comparisons aren’t bad.

For pitchers who walked at least 10 percent of batters before the deadline, the correlation in walk rates drops to 0.4290. I interpret this as a sign that improvement is far from universal. A few pitchers make major improvements. Most of them make minor improvements. In a few cases, pitchers walk rates actually get worse and they don’t get replaced. It’s important to note that only 50 pitchers met my criteria for high walks and stayed in the rotation during the five years I’m looking at – some teams won’t give second chances.

Now let’s take a look at strikeouts. Baumer and Zimbalist found strikeout rates are the most consistent statistic from one season to the next, with a correlation of 0.759. This is also true when comparing pitchers’ performance before and after the trade deadline. I found a correlation of 0.698 despite the smaller post-deadline sample size.

However, I found something very unusual with pitchers who struck out less than 15 percent of opposing batters before the deadline. The 100 pitchers who met this criteria had a pre-deadline / post-deadline correlation of only 0.226. We might expect lower correlations on extreme ends of the distribution as some unlucky pitchers regress to the mean while the least talented pitchers keep low strikeout rates. However, the top 100 pitchers in pre-deadline strikeout rates had a correlation of 0.409. There appears to be something peculiar and unpredictable about pitchers who have low strikeout rates at this point in the season.

One way to try and explain this is through the sad tale of former Met Mike Pelfrey. Big Pelf always confounded fans. How can a young pitcher someone who consistently throws 93-94 strike so few hitters out? According to Brooks Baseball, Pelfrey tinkered with his pitching repertoire several times during his Mets career. In 2010 he added a splitter as his primary out pitch. He wasn’t striking hitters out, so he moved more exclusively to his sinker instead of a four seam fastball and tried to induce ground balls. In 2011 he went back to the slider more and threw fewer fastballs of either the two or four seam variety.

Pelfrey is among the low strikeout rate hitters in my database for both 2010 and 2011. As we might expect, he tinkered with his offerings to try and be more effective. However, his strikeout rates actually got worse after the trading deadline each of his last two full seasons in New York. Adding or subtracting pitches may be a higher variance strategy than tweaking mechanics to improve command.

There also seem to be high command pitchers who can consistently improve a bit on their low strikeout rates towards the end of the season. Mark Buehrle, Doug Fister and Rick Porcello are on this list three times each from 2010-2014. Bartolo Colon improved his strikeout rate from 13.33 percent before the deadline to 21.2 percent after the deadline with minimal changes to his pitch selection at age 40. Command pitchers may be able to take advantage of more established scouting reports on players and umpires at the end of the season. It’s hard to see Logan Verrett–one of the wildest pitchers in baseball this year–using pinpoint command to take advantage of scouting reports.

Based on this analysis, I’d switch to Jon Niese immediately. The Pirates dumped Niese in part because of his extremely high home run rate. However, home run rates only have a 0.206 correlation between pre-deadline and post deadline. There’s a reasonable chance that Niese can keep the ball in the ballpark as well as Verrett down the stretch. There’s almost no chance that Verrett can lower his walk rate to Niese’s 7.8 percent. I’m not saying Niese is a great option – his strikeout rate is only slightly better – but he’s probably the better of the two.

Photo Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

The best analogue to Syndergaard’s performance on Thursday has been the season of Chris Archer: more strikeouts than innings pitched, but sandwiched around more runs given up than their teams’ offense has any hope of replicating, all adding up to a loss. He began the game with a formula that should have been repeated throughout, but it only showed up sporadically. To wit, Syndergaard began with three-straight 99-mph pitches – one fastball and two sinkers – followed up by an 84-mph curveball that Jean Segura swung on and missed. A Michael Bourn single and Paul Goldschmidt double later, and the Diamondbacks had runners on second and third with just one out. But ace Syndergaard could get himself out of such a jam, and he induced a Jake Lamb pop-up and Chris Owings strikeout to end the inning. Threat eliminated, right? We’ll get back to that.

First, the most dreadful part of this Mets’ season: the offense. Facing recent call-up Braden Shipley, the Mets’ bats were looking at a prime target to get themselves back on track. Even on the “Why He’ll Succeed” section of the BP Top 50 Honorable Mentions, he was described as “not a future star,” or, in other words, he should be hittable. Over the course of seven innings, however, he struck out a career-high seven and allowed just three hits – one in the first to extend Neil Walker’s hitting streak to nine games, and one in each of the third and fifth innings. The fifth was his biggest test of the game as the hit was given up to Rene Rivera, moving Kelly Johnson from first on a walk to second with just one out. That became the proper time to remove Syndergaard from the game, and Curtis Granderson entered with a chance to tie the game at three. He struck out swinging, and the Mets weren’t in contention for the rest of the game.

The Mets weren’t in contention because of Syndergaard’s performance, yes, but mainly because of their overall pitching and defense. Syndergaard’s fastballs were capitalized upon in the fourth when the best consecutive names a baseball lineup could have, Socrates Brito and Tuffy Gosewisch, who own -0.1 career WARP between them, hit a double and triple respectively, with a Brito stolen base in between for good measure. That was the tenth stolen base of the series for the D-Backs, and they weren’t done in that category. Later in the fourth, Shipley(!) stole a base, Goldschmidt stole two in the fifth, and a Jon Niese wild pitch would advance two runners who would then score in the six-run on only three-hit sixth.

This had to be a fun game if you’re a Diamondbacks fan, watching a young pitcher and explosive offensive threats live up to their potential. But potential has been a dangerous word for the Mets this season, a team with so much of it that for varying reasons has simply not lived up to its billing. Jeff Fisher would be unhappy with a 9-7 season, but a .562 winning percentage for the rest of the season would be exactly what the Mets need to get into the playoffs (and another Washington Nationals collapse wouldn’t hurt). They’re now .500, but after this game, just three back for the second Wild Card spot. After a game like this you’d be justified in thinking that the rest of the season is hopeless, but if they remember how close they are to securing another playoff spot, the Mets are still in contention.

Photo credit: Anthony Gruppuso – USA Today Sports

Terry Collins’ head-scratching lineup produced 14 hits, but it wasn’t enough to overcome Logan Verrett’s dismal outing as the Mets lose 6-5.

Veteran Manager Seeks Right-Handed Hitters

Throughout the season, Terry Collins has been steadfast in not playing Michael Conforto against left-handed pitchers. You figured something had to give once Yoenis Cespedes went on the disabled list. With a roster full of left-handed outfielders, why not give Conforto a shot against his former college teammate? Detroit starter Matt Boyd actually has reverse platoon splits in 107 big league innings (108 PA vs. LH batters). It wouldn’t be like asking Conforto to get used to left-handed pitching by facing Randy Johnson in his prime.

Instead, Collins went with one of the most extreme platoon lineups imaginable. Ty Kelly – who has looked overmatched in the majors – got his first big league start in the outfield. Kelly hit second while Conforto, Brandon Nimmo and hot hand Alejandro De Aza got the day off. Wilmer Flores got his first start at first in nearly three weeks, while Kelly Johnson got another start at third base. To top it off, Rene Rivera started at designated hitter for the first time in his career. Either Collins put a lot of stock in Rivera’s .375/.464/.625 in 28 plate appearances versus lefties this year or he just wanted to put right-handed bats in the starting lineup. (Rivera is a career .232/.284/.387 hitter versus lefties.)

It’s not like Collins chose this lineup to maximize his defense either. Johnson has played more games in left field than third base in his career. Kelly is primarily a third baseman who started learning outfield in the minors last year. Rivera and his superior throwing arm were playing designated hitter while Travis d’Arnaud caught. Before the game, Collins said he made Rivera the DH so he could pinch hit for him later. When right-handed pitcher Alex Wilson came in for the sixth inning, Conforto came in to pinch hit. I’ve seen this strategy in college, but not a major league team starting one of its weakest hitters at DH for a platoon advantage.

These replace-Mets did about as well as anyone could expect. Kelly went 2 for 4 with a walk. Rivera walked once and struck out once. Conforto went 1 for 2. The results don’t necessarily vindicate Collins’ strategy. I don’t anticipate Kelly and Rivera combining for a .667 on base percentage against left handed pitching for the rest of the season. But some times a team gets lucky.

Verrett Digs Giant Hole

Something that will help any hitter is facing Logan Verrett in 2016. Out of all pitchers with at least 70 innings this year, Verrett is in the bottom 10 percent for both strikeout percentage and walk percentage. He has struggled even for a fifth starter. Last night, Verrett managed to limit the Tigers to one run in the first three innings before imploding in the fourth. He gave up two hits then hit Nick Castellanos, breaking a bone in the third baseman’s hand. Jarrod Saltalamacchia reached out and drove a backdoor slider that was too close to a strike, giving the Tigers a 3-1 lead. Then he hung another slider to Ian Kinsler for an RBI single. John Niese came in and gave up singles to Tyler Collins and Miguel Cabrera, making it 6-1 Tigers. Victor Martinez struck out to end the threat.

Niese and Hansel Robles only allowed one more hit in the last four innings, giving the Mets a chance to mount a comeback. Curtis Granderson homered to start the top of the 5th to make it 6-2. Kelly and Neil Walker both reached base before Kinsler botched the turn on a potential inning ending double play. Wilmer Flores made the Tigers pay with a single to make it 6-3. Boyd stayed in at 100 pitches to face d’Arnaud as the tying run and struck him out on a 90 mph fastball.

In the 6th, the first two Mets got on before the Tigers successfully turned a ground ball in to a double play. In the 7th, the Mets got the first two runners on again. Jay Bruce grounded to first, but Cabrera threw the ball right at Walker’s head while trying to turn the double play. Walker went to third, Kelly scored and Bruce was safe at first. Then Flores grounded a potential double play ball to third, but it went off Mike Aviles’ glove. Once again, everyone is safe. d’Arnaud grounded to Kinsler and the Tigers finally turned their double play, but not before it was a one-run game.

The Mets got one last chance in the ninth off of former Mets’ closer Francisco Rodriguez. Kelly and Walker made the outs, then Bruce singled to left. Alejandro De Aza pinch hit for Flores and singled to left. d’Arnaud pushed a single through the hole on the right side of the infield. Bruce is notoriously slow, but the Mets sent him anyway. J.D. Martinez made a perfect throw home but Bruce could have still tied the game with a good slide. Unfortunately he slid past the base with his lead leg and was tagged out to end the game before touching the plate with his trail leg.

Collins didn’t challenge the call, a decision he was after the game was a poor one as there was nothing to lose. A lot of Mets fans feel the same way about Collins’ decision-making yesterday.

What’s Next?

The Mets try to salvage one game out of the series. Fans debate whether it’s worth benching Verrett and promoting Niese to the rotation.

Photo credit: Rick Osentoski – USA Today Sports

Today, we’re presenting our best and favorite bold predictions for the 2016 Mets season. Try not to burn yourself. #hottakes

The Mets Will Win The 2016 World Series

Bartolo Colon Will Be Better Than Zack Wheeler In 2016

Travis d’Arnaud Will Be The Best Catcher In Baseball

In well under half a season last year, Travis d’Arnaud amassed 4.0 WARP. That would place him behind maybe only Buster Posey–maybe no one!–on the WARP leaderboard if he had played around 130 games. Of course, that is the catch since he hasn’t managed a full season yet … but I’ll take the over on 130 for him in 2016. I’d also bet that his power spikes as he enters his prime and his plate discipline improves as well. That combined with refinements in pitch blocking (and his continued elite pitch framing) will allow him to pass Posey as the most valuable catcher in the game. — Maggie Wiggin (@maggie162)

The 2016 Mets Break The Team Record For Most HR in a Season (200)

The starting rotation garners the most hype, and rightfully so, but this lineup has the kind of power we haven’t seen since the 2006 squad set the club record for home runs. If healthy, lineup numbers one through eight should all reach double-digit homers. Lucas Duda and Yoenis Cespedes could both conceivably hit 30 homers again and it wouldn’t be surprising if Curtis Granderson, Michael Conforto, and Travis d’Arnaud surpass 20 apiece. Neil Walker and Asdrubal Cabrera have averaged 32 homers combined per season dating back to 2012. Who knows what to expect from David Wright, but Wilmer Flores can provide thump in whatever role he ends up playing. It’s already getting interesting and we haven’t even touched on the other bench players and pitchers. (I’m looking at you, Bartolo.) No NL team has slugged 200 homers since the 2012 Brewers and best-case scenarios rarely play out, but I’m here to be bold, so I’ll say that the Mets are going to threaten that club record. – D.J. Short (@djshort)

Wilmer Flores Redefines the Super-Sub Role

Over the last 10 seasons, there have been 35 players who got 400 or more plate appearances while playing at least 10 games each at second base, third base and shortstop. Some of these players had a primary position but made spot appearances elsewhere, like Ruben Tejada last year. Others bounce around infield and outfield positions, like Boston’s Brock Holt.

What’s unusual about the Mets’ bench this season is Wilmer Flores probably starts off as the primary backup for all four infield positions. Also, it seems like most teams keep “super-sub” infielders with power away from first base so they can add power to a weaker position. I expect Flores to stay in this super-sub role all season, where Wilmer Flores will become the first player in National League history to start 10 games at each infield position and hit 10 or more home runs. — Noah Grand (@noahgrand)

The Mets Will Miss Jon Niese

There’s no love lost between Niese and the Mets. Shunted to the playoff bullpen in favor of Steven Matz, then dealt in the offseason for Neil Walker, the Mets made it clear that Niese was superfluous to their 2016 team. PECOTA agrees in principle, projecting every member of the Mets’ starting five to outperform Niese.

PECOTA’s preference notwithstanding, the Dodgers’ spring should remind the Mets that pitching depth is a necessity, not a luxury. Sandy Alderson’s reliance on a returning Tommy John patient to provide rotation depth is risky, particularly because the team apparently believes once-heralded prospect Rafael Montero will never succeed at the big-league level. Niese deserves credit as a reliable innings-eater, having made at least 24 starts each of the last six seasons.

Yet there’s reason to believe Niese is more than mere depth. PECOTA may not realize that Niese is one of four pitchers to finish in the top 10 in inducing comebacker outs each of the last two seasons–the others are Dallas Keuchel, Zack Greinke and Mike Leake. Niese’s new teammate Gerrit Cole appears on the 2015 list, along with the top four NL Cy Young finishers and the AL Cy Young winner. Niese gives Pirates pitching coach/wizard Ray Searage plenty of raw material on which to perform his alchemy.

If Niese makes the leap in 2016 or the rotation is beset by injuries–let alone both–the Mets’ decision to jettison a No. 3 or No. 4 starter with upside will be proven imprudent. — Scott D. Simon (@scottdsimon)

Michael Conforto Will Have A Better Season Than Corey Seager

Michael Conforto will not be the National League’s Rookie of the Year. (That’s not the hot take. He’s not eligible.) The hot take is that he would be if he were eligible, and by that I mean that Conforto is going to have a better season than the hot NL RoY pick and BP’s top prospect for 2016: Corey Seager.

This is the genre of hot take that, upon further inspection, is more of a tepid take. In 2015, Conforto had a .315 True Average and posted a 1.9 WARP in just 56 games. If he even comes close to maintaining the pace he set, Conforto would be one of the 10 best outfielders in the National League. I’m not the only one who thinks so, either. FanGraphs’ community projections see Conforto’s bat being just as valuable over a longer stretch of games. I think it will happen. And that would be more significant than any award. — Eric Garcia-McKinley (@garcia_mckinley)

Addison Reed will be the best pitcher in the Mets’ Bullpen

Some hitters are made for Fenway Park and some pitchers are made for PETCO Park, but those aren’t the only baseball marriages that matter. This prediction is absolutely not an indictment on Jeurys Familia, who should have a very strong 2016 (though a small step back from the elite version of himself last year should probably be expected), but one based on the potentially dynamic combination of Reed and Dan Warthen. When Reed has been great, his slider has been the reason why, and Reed flashed a harder and better-controlled slider down the stretch last season than at any point in his career. If Reed can now add that bat-missing element his younger self flashed after a full offseason of work, he has a chance to realize the potential he showed throughout the minors. That could look come with a pristine ERA and 90-100 strikeouts. — Bret Sayre (@dynastyguru)

Jeurys Familia Will Be The Best Reliever In Baseball

Familia was a dominant closer in 2015, and a great bullpen arm in 2014 as well. The bar for elite relief pitching is high nowadays though, as the fireballing strikeout-monsters aren’t just showing up in greater numbers in major league rotations, but in the pen as well. Familia’s 1.85 ERA last season just snuck into the top 10 for relief pitchers, and the fielding independent stats think he may have been a bit lucky; he out-pitched both his FIP and DRA by about one run per nine. But as for me, I have no idea how any major league hitter squares him up. After a performance hiccup post-All-Star-break, Familia debuted a devastating splitter that routinely touched the mid-90s. That is not a typo. Splitter. 90s.

I just love where Jeurys Familia appears (way to the right) on his splitter https://t.co/Ino1PPL9nN pic.twitter.com/rN9oGyWq0D

— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) January 11, 2016

It immediately looked like a top-of-the-scouting-scale, wipeout offering*, and he pairs it with a two-seamer that can touch 99 (and moves almost as much as the split), and his plus-plus version of the Warthen slider. This is an 8/8/7 scouting profile. It is always risky to predict the next sixty innings of any relief pitcher (that is how you end up trading for Ramon Ramirez and signing Scott Atchison), but I will bet on a full season of that splitter.

* Bonus fun fact: Familia threw 114 splitters in 2015. He gave up only four hits, and  batters swing and missed 33 times. – Jeffrey Paternostro (@jeffpaternostro)

Three Mets Pitchers Will Receive Cy Young Votes

Since baseball expanded to thirty teams in 1998, only eight teams have had at least three pitchers receive Cy Young votes. As a “bold” preseason prediction, it’s one of the more plausible, so the true question will be which three (or four, or five, or…) manage the votes. Will the Sports Illustrated cover trio of Matt Harvey, Jacob DeGrom, and Jeurys Familia lead the charge? Will the even younger guns of Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, and Zack Wheeler improve further on their touted prospect statuses? Will Big Sexy add a couple home runs to stellar pitching? (Probably not.) The Mets’ top-six starters are projected to have about the same WARP as last season, and if that’s the case, three pitchers with Cy Young votes is hardly out of the question. Sadly, of the aforementioned eight three-Cy-votes teams, just one won the World Series. Here’s hoping for a second. — Brian Duricy

Noah Syndergaard Will Come In Second In NL Cy Young Voting

I won’t predict that he surpasses the lefty in Los Angeles, but Noah Syndergaard will dominate the NL and finish second in the NL Cy Young voting. He features two of the fastest fastballs in baseball, and a 97 MPH two seamer that moves as much as Syndergaard’s does is patently unfair. All of Thor’s secondaries also induce above average swinging strike rates, and he’s supposedly improved his Warthen slider even further. Add in his excellent control and his dominating demeanor on the mound–I’m really hoping someone actually does try to meet him sixty feet six inches away–and you have the ingredients for one of the best pitchers in baseball. — Lukas Vlahos (@lvlahos343)

The Mets Trade For a Starting Pitcher At the 2016 Trade Deadline

I do not want to be the pessimist here. I really don’t. But we need to talk about the potential for injury among at least four of the Mets’ five starters. Noah Syndergaard throws so hard that his arm could spontaneously detach and hit 60 on the radar gun itself. Jacob deGrom had a little velocity loss in Spring Training, and that gives me heartburn. Bartolo Colon is held together with duct tape, and Steven Matz has proven that the only thing he isn’t good at is staying healthy. Only Matt Harvey is a sure thing to stay healthy … you get a three-year manufacturer’s warranty on Tommy John surgery these days, right?

I am going into 2016 assuming that Matz and Wheeler will co-habitate one slot in the rotation, and that one of Thor or deGrom will get the zipper mid-season. That would leave the Mets with a Harvey/Ace #2/Wheltz/maybe Bartolo/Oh No rotation going into the back half of the season, and I’d expect the team to still be competitive at that point. (They’re good!) But if that’s the case, I could certainly see Sandy and Co. to go after a relatively-cheap, relatively-good, relatively-left-handed starter to fill out the back end of the rotation. You know, someone like Matt Moore or John Lamb or James Paxton. Besides, is it really that pessimistic of me to expect the Mets to lose one of their three best pitchers and still be in the mix as a playoff team?

You don’t have to answer that. — Bryan Grosnick (@bgrosnick)

Photo Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports