Ynoa held the Phils scoreless in the first, but the second inning did not go as well. Freddy Galvis singled on a soft line drive with one out, and Cody Asche followed with a single of his own. Cesar Hernandez and Roman Quinn drove both of them in with two out RBI singles to give the Phillies a 2-0 lead. This would also end Ynoa’s start, as he exited after only two innings pitched, walking and striking out one.

The Mets answered right back against Phillie starter Jeremy Hellickson, as Michael Conforto doubled with one out. After Lucas Duda drilled a line drive out (some rotten luck, but already a big improvement over James Loney), Travis d’Arnaud drove in Conforto with a double of his own to cut the deficit to one. Unfortunately, the Phillies got the run right back, as Maikel Franco homered off Logan Verrett to start the third and put the Phillies up 3-1.

The fourth inning was quiet as Verrett settled in and Hellickson held the Mets at bay, as was the top of the fifth where Josh Smoker tossed a perfect frame with a pair of strikeouts. The Met half of the inning was anything but. Rene Rivera lead off with a single, and walks to Asdrubal Cabrera and Yoenis Cespedes loaded the bases for Curtis Granderson. Granderson singled in Rivera, and Kelly Johnson followed with a two-run single of his own to put the Mets up 4-3.

Discontent with a one run lead, the Mets managed to bring home three more on a three-run opposite field bomb from Conforto. Conforto’s double and homer gave him as many extra base hits as Jay Bruce has in the month of September combined. Don’t worry though, I’m sure Terry Collins will happily plug Jay Bruce back in the lineup with a trademarked “we’ve got to get him going” while Conforto is returned to rotting on the bench.

Erik Goeddel relieved Smoker and got off to a rough start, walking Cody Asche and surrendering a two-run home run to Darin Ruf that cut the Met lead to 7-5. He retired the next three batters, but ran into more trouble in the seventh after Maikel Franco singled and Ryan Howard walked. Josh Edgin entered and gave up an infield single to Freddy Galvis that loaded the bases. Without Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia, Collins was forced to turn to Hansel Robles, who quickly induced a double play ground ball from Tommy Joseph to end the threat.

Poor defense gifted the Mets some insurance runs in the bottom of the seventh. Cespedes led off with a double and Granderson walked. Collins then made the very bad decision of pinch hitting for Johnson against a lefty with Juan Lagares, who was presumably sent to the plate to bunt (almost always a bad move). Lagares got the bunt down though, and the Phillies threw the ball away, allowing Cespedes to score and putting runners on second and third with none out.

Conforto was due up next, but as he’s entirely incapable of ever seeing a lefty pitcher ever, Eric Campbell was sent in to pinch hit. At least I presume that was the dialogue in Terry’s head. The move worked however, as Campbell drove in another run with a single. T.J. Rivera then pinch hit for Duda (a fine move, because Duda has a long history of ineptitude against lefties and just came off the DL) and drove in the third run of the inning with a sacrifice fly.

The remaining two innings were quiet, mostly thanks to the superb pitching of Robles, who recorded the last eight outs of the game, allowing only one Philly to reach base on an error. He recorded three strikeouts over his 2.2 frames as the Mets nailed down their second consecutive victory, topping the Phils by a final score of 10-5.

With the Cubs demolishing the Cardinals and the Padres topping the Giants, the Mets are now alone in the first Wild Card spot, one game ahead of San Francisco and a game and a half ahead of St. Louis. The remaining schedule is extraordinarily soft, with five games against the Phillies and three against the Marlins (who have been a pain for the Mets in the past, but are not a good baseball team). As it stands, the Mets control their own playoff destiny despite devastating injuries all over the team. Even if this season ends in disappointment, their resiliency is impressive.

Photo credit: Bill Streicher – USA Today Sports

CESPEDES TOTALS FIVE RBI, CABRERA COLLECTS THREE HITS

Braves’ starter Williams Perez had rough time during his short start. He relied heavily on hitting the corners with his low 90s sinker, but often got too much of the plate and Mets’ hitters took advantage. After Asdrubal Cabrera hit a first inning triple on just such a pitch, Yoenis Cespedes hit a hard groundball to plate the game’s first run. Perez was more effective during the second inning, effectively working down in the zone.

Things fell apart for the righty in the third, as Lugo drew a walk and three straight batters hit low, glove side sinkers for hits. Jose Reyes and Cabrera loaded the bases with singles, and Cespedes demolished the 1-0 pitch for a grand slam, and his 30th home run of the season. Perez would not make it out of the inning, as he was pulled with a triceps injury. In total, Perez allowed five runs, four hits, a walk and a home run during his 2.2 innings.

Reliever Joel De La Cruz fared not much better in his 1.1 innings. He allowed a solo home run to James Loney on a hanging changeup in the fourth and failed to earn an out in the fifth. After allowing a single to Cabrera (his third hit of the day) and a walk to Cespedes, De La Cruz was replaced by former first round pick Jed Bradley. Bradley had early troubles with control, and his high 80s fastball was hit hard out of the gate. Kelly Johnson and Alejandro De Aza scored each of the two inherited runners and Loney hit a double to add an earned run to Bradley’s line. Lugo earned his first MLB RBI with a sacrifice fly, bringing the Mets’ total to 10 runs.

Mets bats were largely quiet for the rest of the game, as Bradley settled down in the sixth and seven innings and retired all six of the batters he faced. Brandon Cunniff shut down the Mets in the eighth and ninth innings, an outing most notable for the MLB debut of top Mets’ prospect Gavin Cecchini (he struck out swinging).

SETH LUGO SHUTS DOWN BRAVES OVER SEVEN INNINGS

Over his seven strong innings, Lugo displayed occasional problems with command, but worked through those issues to limit the Braves to two runs over seven innings. His fastball had life and regularly hit 95 mph (even hitting 96 mph as late as the sixth inning), but struggled with control of the pitch in the first and fourth innings. Some stellar defensive plays – including two well-fielded double plays involving Johnson at second base – helped Lugo out of jams.

Lugo’s curveball was as stellar as ever, and in total he struck out five while only allowing one walk. The first of the two runs allowed came on a Freddie Freeman groundball single and the second on a pinch-hit home run by Brandon Snyder. Lugo’s fifth Major League start provided further evidence that he belongs in the Mets’ long-term rotation plans.

BULLPEN STRUGGLES THROUGH JAMS TO END GAME

Sean Gilmartin entered the game in the eighth and promptly gave up back-to-back ground ball singles to Jace Peterson and Ender Inciarte. However, a popup by Garcia and a double play induced by pinch-hitter Blake Lalli got him out of the inning unscathed.

Logan Verrett entered to close out the ballgame in the ninth, but immediately gave up a double to Matt Kemp, who scored on a Markakis ground out. Problems persisted as former Met Anthony Recker walked on five pitches and Daniel Castro and Gordon Beckham each singled. Unable to command his fastball, Verrett was pulled with the bases loaded and one out. However, the Mets still had an insurmountable seven run lead, and Josh Edgin was able to generate the two outs necessary to end the game.

UP NEXT

On Monday, the Mets head to Washington to begin a three-game series with the Nationals. Embattled righty Rafael Montero remains in the rotation and makes the start for New York, while the Nationals have yet to announce who will pitch in place of the re-injured Stephen Strasburg. Potential replacements likely include hard throwing prospects Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez. The Mets are nine games behind the Nationals in the division, but now hold a half-game lead over St Louis for the second NL Wild Card spot.

Photo credit: Shanna Lockwood – USA Today Sports

Seth Lugo did everything he could to stave off the Mets’ death spiral, but his teammates ran and threw their way to an 8-1 loss.

One Foot Forward…

If you missed last night’s game and just saw the score, your first guess would probably be Seth Lugo let the Mets down in his first major league start. After all, he had a 6.93 ERA in 14 AAA starts to open the season. Terry Collins had already turned to Logan Verrett and Jon Niese before going to Lugo out of necessity when Steven Matz was scratched with shoulder soreness.

After the team gave up 38 runs on the first four games of their toad trip, Lugo gave the Mets everything they could hope for in the first six innings. He mixed up his 93-94 mph fastball, sinker and offspeed pitches. He moved the ball up and down, pounded the strike zone and didn’t hang any breaking pitches over the middle of the plate. San Francisco has been one of baseball’s most aggressive teams swinging at pitches in the zone; mix in a few double plays and Lugo had thrown six innings of one run ball before he hit the 60-pitch mark.

…One Foot Back

Jose Reyes led off the game with a single to center. Four pitches later, he foreshadowed how Friday night would turn out for the Mets. Johnny Cueto’s pitch was in the dirt. Reyes tried to take second, but he broke late and had no chance to beat the throw. Reyes knew he was out and didn’t even slide.

All game long the Mets showed flashes of greatness, only to be dashed when those same players made grievous mistakes. They turned 11 hits into one run. Reyes went 4-for-4 but helped kill the Mets’ biggest rally with another baserunning blunder. James Loney went 2-for-4 and turned a great double play, but he also made multiple defensive miscues that led to three runs. Curtis Granderson hit a home run in to the Bay, but left Asdrubal Cabrera hanging on a fly ball to short center that fell for a double. The Mets only went 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position, but that stat doesn’t stand out amid all the other mistakes.

Then the Bullpen Breaks

Lugo got the first two outs in the seventh before Eduardo Nunez doubled off the wall in center. Collins could either trust a 26-year-old rookie having the best game of his short big league career or turn to the bullpen. He chose door number two and got a stream of sad trombone music instead of a prize. Joe Panik was intentionally walked. Jerry Blevins came in to face a lefty pinch hitter, but Bruce Bochy turned to switch hitter Ehire Adrianza instead. He and Denard Span both singled to make it a 3-1 game.

Hard throwing lefty Josh Smoker finally got a big league appearance, but only retired one of the first three Giants’ hitters to open the eighth. Collins then turned to Jeurys Familia to try and keep the Mets in striking distance. Unfortunately, Familia was wild in the non-save situation, giving up a single and RBI groundout. He got another ground ball to get out of the inning, but Cabrera threw wide and Loney showed his lack of range stretching for grounders. Two runs scored and Erik Goeddel was charged with ending the inning. After four batters and two more runs scoring, Goeddel eventually got his out. By this point the game was over – the Mets bullpen gave up eight hits while only getting four outs.

More Starts For Lugo?

Lugo pitched better than his line score suggests. He was pulled after 69 pitches (including the intentional walk) and had gas left in the tank. After the struggles of Verrett and Niese, some fans will certainly call for Lugo to get another start. Baseball is full of pitchers who have one great start and never match it – think back to Verrett in Colorado last year. That being said, it would probably be good for the Mets to see what Lugo can do starting a game in a balanced park instead of Las Vegas or San Francisco.

What’s Next:

The Mets play their only day game of the week. Based on how this trip has gone, New York fans may regret a game that ends before bedtime.

Photo credit: Lance Iversen – USA Today Sports

With Matt Harvey out for the rest of the season, the Mets have turned to Logan Verrett as a replacement. Verrett was a solid option in his rookie season, striking out 20.5 percent of opposing batters while walking 7.9 percent. In 2016 he has faced 360 opposing batters, striking out 15.3 percent of them while walking 10.3 percent. These are awful numbers even for a fifth starter. There were only been 11 pitchers who have combined this level of wildness and low strikeout rates while facing at least 300 batters before the trading deadline from 2010-14 (I can’t add 2015 to my Retrosheet-based database without a working Windows machine.) Three of them didn’t pitch in the majors after the deadline that season. Three more pitched but faced less than 150 batters. Only five took a regular turn in the rotation after the deadline.

It’s hard to know exactly what to expect from Verrett from the rest of the season. We know he has been really bad so far, but he hasn’t been a full time starter this year. If you read Baseball Prospectus on a regular basis, small sample size is probably a part of your vocabulary. However, it’s a bad idea to assume that Verrett will “regress to the mean” just because he was one of the worst pitchers in the majors through the trade deadline. Players perform at their talent level, plus or minus a certain amount of random chance. Line drives sometimes get caught. Umpires can make mistakes that hurt or help a pitcher. Over the course of a season, things like umpire mistakes should balance out to some degree. This means if a pitcher has the same underlying level of talent throughout the season, then their walk and strikeout rates should get closer to their talent level, not the league average.

To try and explain how this works, I took every pitching season where a pitcher faced at least 300 batters before August 1 and 150 batters on August 1 or later. I chose this number to try and get more pitching seasons than would qualify for the ERA title. If I chose a higher batters faced threshold I would get fewer seasons but also less variance in how someone performed in each part of the season. Working with my database of 2010-14, I have 541 qualifying pitcher-seasons. For starters, let’s look at the range of walk rates after the trade deadline.

To compare of how pitchers performed before and after the trading deadline, I had to drop pitchers who didn’t face enough batters after the deadline. We should see what statisticians call a survival bias in the distribution I provided. Pitchers who walked at least 10 percent of opposing batters should be much more likely to get dropped from the sample unless they improve their performance enough to keep their jobs. The high walk rate pitchers who were able to stay in the rotation did cut their walk rate from 10.97 percent to 9.97 percent. This difference is statistically significant at the 0.001 level. The other pitchers in my database, as an aggregate group, did not show improvement. However, the high walk rate pitchers didn’t get close to the 7.16 percent average walk rate for all pitchers in my database.

It’s hard to know what part of this improvement is statistical regression to the mean after an unlucky start, what part is pitchers making mechanical changes to keep their jobs, and what part is teams replacing erratic pitchers. What scares me is that the survival bias isn’t stronger. A majority of the pitchers who had a walk rate over 10 percent and kept their spot in the rotation after the trade deadline kept walking one out of every 10 batters over the break! Gio Gonzalez, Francisco Liriano and C.J. Wilson are repeat offenders. Here is the overall distribution of walk rates after the trading deadline for pitchers who walked at least 10 percent of batters before the deadline.

It’s hard to know where Logan Verrett will fall in this distribution if he gets to keep his job as the Mets fifth starter. Walk rates are the second most consistent statistic for pitchers on a year-to-year basis, according to Benjamin Baumer and Andrew Zimbalist’s “The Sabermetric Revolution.” This is also true on a pre-deadline to post-deadline basis. Since my post deadline sample size is smaller (150 batters faced vs. their 250 minimum for the season), the correlation drops from 0.629 between seasons to 0.570 within a season. This suggests that overall, the pre- to post- deadline comparisons aren’t bad.

For pitchers who walked at least 10 percent of batters before the deadline, the correlation in walk rates drops to 0.4290. I interpret this as a sign that improvement is far from universal. A few pitchers make major improvements. Most of them make minor improvements. In a few cases, pitchers walk rates actually get worse and they don’t get replaced. It’s important to note that only 50 pitchers met my criteria for high walks and stayed in the rotation during the five years I’m looking at – some teams won’t give second chances.

Now let’s take a look at strikeouts. Baumer and Zimbalist found strikeout rates are the most consistent statistic from one season to the next, with a correlation of 0.759. This is also true when comparing pitchers’ performance before and after the trade deadline. I found a correlation of 0.698 despite the smaller post-deadline sample size.

However, I found something very unusual with pitchers who struck out less than 15 percent of opposing batters before the deadline. The 100 pitchers who met this criteria had a pre-deadline / post-deadline correlation of only 0.226. We might expect lower correlations on extreme ends of the distribution as some unlucky pitchers regress to the mean while the least talented pitchers keep low strikeout rates. However, the top 100 pitchers in pre-deadline strikeout rates had a correlation of 0.409. There appears to be something peculiar and unpredictable about pitchers who have low strikeout rates at this point in the season.

One way to try and explain this is through the sad tale of former Met Mike Pelfrey. Big Pelf always confounded fans. How can a young pitcher someone who consistently throws 93-94 strike so few hitters out? According to Brooks Baseball, Pelfrey tinkered with his pitching repertoire several times during his Mets career. In 2010 he added a splitter as his primary out pitch. He wasn’t striking hitters out, so he moved more exclusively to his sinker instead of a four seam fastball and tried to induce ground balls. In 2011 he went back to the slider more and threw fewer fastballs of either the two or four seam variety.

Pelfrey is among the low strikeout rate hitters in my database for both 2010 and 2011. As we might expect, he tinkered with his offerings to try and be more effective. However, his strikeout rates actually got worse after the trading deadline each of his last two full seasons in New York. Adding or subtracting pitches may be a higher variance strategy than tweaking mechanics to improve command.

There also seem to be high command pitchers who can consistently improve a bit on their low strikeout rates towards the end of the season. Mark Buehrle, Doug Fister and Rick Porcello are on this list three times each from 2010-2014. Bartolo Colon improved his strikeout rate from 13.33 percent before the deadline to 21.2 percent after the deadline with minimal changes to his pitch selection at age 40. Command pitchers may be able to take advantage of more established scouting reports on players and umpires at the end of the season. It’s hard to see Logan Verrett–one of the wildest pitchers in baseball this year–using pinpoint command to take advantage of scouting reports.

Based on this analysis, I’d switch to Jon Niese immediately. The Pirates dumped Niese in part because of his extremely high home run rate. However, home run rates only have a 0.206 correlation between pre-deadline and post deadline. There’s a reasonable chance that Niese can keep the ball in the ballpark as well as Verrett down the stretch. There’s almost no chance that Verrett can lower his walk rate to Niese’s 7.8 percent. I’m not saying Niese is a great option – his strikeout rate is only slightly better – but he’s probably the better of the two.

Photo Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Instead of making the most of his extended rotation opportunity, Verrett deposited a foul smelling substance in the Mets’ bed. After a single and two walks loaded the bases for the Padres with no outs in the first, Ryan Schimpf launched a grand slam to put the Padres up 4-0. Jabari Blash followed that with a home run of his own, and the Mets were down 5-0 before they even came to bat.

Thankfully, the Met offense managed to do at least a little bit of damage against the truly awful Clemens. After a quiet first inning, James Loney singled to start the bottom of the second and Travis d’Arnaud followed with a line drive home run to left field to bring the Mets back within three. Alejandro De Aza lined out and Matt Reynolds and Verrett both struck out to end the frame.

Alas, Verrett wasn’t done being a bad pitcher. After striking out Yangervis Solarte to start the third, Verrett allowed an Alex Dickerson double ahead of Ryan Schimpf’s second homer of the night, re-extending the Padres lead to five. Two batters later, Christian Bethancourt went deep as well, putting the Padres up 8-2 and ending Verrett’s night, as well as his time in the Mets rotation (though it seems he’s going to be replaced with Jonathon Niese, which might somehow be just as bad).

The Mets mustered a walk and a hit in the third and fourth innings respectively, but the deficit remained at six runs. In the fifth, Curtis Granderson ground a single into center field with one out, then advanced to second on a slow ground out. Neil Walker worked his third walk of the game, before Jay Bruce singled on a ground ball to right field, scoring Granderson from second and cutting the Padre lead to 8-3. Loney was called out on strikes to end the threat.

In the sixth, the Mets continued to inch closer. d’Arnaud led off with a single and De Aza reached base on a scary hit-by-pitch that seemed to catch him in the face (he remained in the game). Reynolds then doubled to score d’Arnaud and put runners on second and third with none out. Ty Kelly followed with a single to score De Aza from third and put runners at the corners. Unfortunately, the Mets only got one more run, as Granderson struck out, Wilmer Flores drove in a run with a ground out, and Walker grounded out. Still, the Mets were back in the game with the score at 8-6.

Meanwhile, the Met bullpen was doing a fantastic job of keeping the Mets in the game. Seth Lugo (2.1 IP), Erik Goeddel (1 IP) and Hansel Robles (3 IP) retired all 19 Padres they faced after relieving Verrett, striking out eight in the process. If Goeddel and Lugo continue to perform at this level (and their uptick in stuff upon moving to the bullpen gives some hope that they can), they could both earn significant roles in the 2017 bullpen. It’s telling that we’ve reached the point of the season where one of the few positive comments is about potential 2017 bullpen pieces.

Unfortunately, the Mets wasted the bullpen’s herculean effort. After cutting the deficit to two by the end of the sixth, the Mets were retired in order in the seventh, eighth, and ninth by Brad Hand, Ryan Buchter and Brandon Maurer respectively. No ball was struck particularly well as the Mets, who continue to play without any apparent energy or urgency, went quietly into the night.

The loss drops the Mets’ record below .500 at 57-58, and they now have a negative run differential (-1). Miami and St. Louis both lost thankfully, keeping the gap for the second wild card at three games, but the Mets’ hopes for October baseball continue to fade with 47 games to play and three teams to leapfrog to gain the second wild card. Jacob deGrom takes the mound opposite Jarred Cosart Saturday as the Mets attempt to end their four game skid.

Photo credit: Noah K. Murray – USA Today Sports

Terry Collins’ head-scratching lineup produced 14 hits, but it wasn’t enough to overcome Logan Verrett’s dismal outing as the Mets lose 6-5.

Veteran Manager Seeks Right-Handed Hitters

Throughout the season, Terry Collins has been steadfast in not playing Michael Conforto against left-handed pitchers. You figured something had to give once Yoenis Cespedes went on the disabled list. With a roster full of left-handed outfielders, why not give Conforto a shot against his former college teammate? Detroit starter Matt Boyd actually has reverse platoon splits in 107 big league innings (108 PA vs. LH batters). It wouldn’t be like asking Conforto to get used to left-handed pitching by facing Randy Johnson in his prime.

Instead, Collins went with one of the most extreme platoon lineups imaginable. Ty Kelly – who has looked overmatched in the majors – got his first big league start in the outfield. Kelly hit second while Conforto, Brandon Nimmo and hot hand Alejandro De Aza got the day off. Wilmer Flores got his first start at first in nearly three weeks, while Kelly Johnson got another start at third base. To top it off, Rene Rivera started at designated hitter for the first time in his career. Either Collins put a lot of stock in Rivera’s .375/.464/.625 in 28 plate appearances versus lefties this year or he just wanted to put right-handed bats in the starting lineup. (Rivera is a career .232/.284/.387 hitter versus lefties.)

It’s not like Collins chose this lineup to maximize his defense either. Johnson has played more games in left field than third base in his career. Kelly is primarily a third baseman who started learning outfield in the minors last year. Rivera and his superior throwing arm were playing designated hitter while Travis d’Arnaud caught. Before the game, Collins said he made Rivera the DH so he could pinch hit for him later. When right-handed pitcher Alex Wilson came in for the sixth inning, Conforto came in to pinch hit. I’ve seen this strategy in college, but not a major league team starting one of its weakest hitters at DH for a platoon advantage.

These replace-Mets did about as well as anyone could expect. Kelly went 2 for 4 with a walk. Rivera walked once and struck out once. Conforto went 1 for 2. The results don’t necessarily vindicate Collins’ strategy. I don’t anticipate Kelly and Rivera combining for a .667 on base percentage against left handed pitching for the rest of the season. But some times a team gets lucky.

Verrett Digs Giant Hole

Something that will help any hitter is facing Logan Verrett in 2016. Out of all pitchers with at least 70 innings this year, Verrett is in the bottom 10 percent for both strikeout percentage and walk percentage. He has struggled even for a fifth starter. Last night, Verrett managed to limit the Tigers to one run in the first three innings before imploding in the fourth. He gave up two hits then hit Nick Castellanos, breaking a bone in the third baseman’s hand. Jarrod Saltalamacchia reached out and drove a backdoor slider that was too close to a strike, giving the Tigers a 3-1 lead. Then he hung another slider to Ian Kinsler for an RBI single. John Niese came in and gave up singles to Tyler Collins and Miguel Cabrera, making it 6-1 Tigers. Victor Martinez struck out to end the threat.

Niese and Hansel Robles only allowed one more hit in the last four innings, giving the Mets a chance to mount a comeback. Curtis Granderson homered to start the top of the 5th to make it 6-2. Kelly and Neil Walker both reached base before Kinsler botched the turn on a potential inning ending double play. Wilmer Flores made the Tigers pay with a single to make it 6-3. Boyd stayed in at 100 pitches to face d’Arnaud as the tying run and struck him out on a 90 mph fastball.

In the 6th, the first two Mets got on before the Tigers successfully turned a ground ball in to a double play. In the 7th, the Mets got the first two runners on again. Jay Bruce grounded to first, but Cabrera threw the ball right at Walker’s head while trying to turn the double play. Walker went to third, Kelly scored and Bruce was safe at first. Then Flores grounded a potential double play ball to third, but it went off Mike Aviles’ glove. Once again, everyone is safe. d’Arnaud grounded to Kinsler and the Tigers finally turned their double play, but not before it was a one-run game.

The Mets got one last chance in the ninth off of former Mets’ closer Francisco Rodriguez. Kelly and Walker made the outs, then Bruce singled to left. Alejandro De Aza pinch hit for Flores and singled to left. d’Arnaud pushed a single through the hole on the right side of the infield. Bruce is notoriously slow, but the Mets sent him anyway. J.D. Martinez made a perfect throw home but Bruce could have still tied the game with a good slide. Unfortunately he slid past the base with his lead leg and was tagged out to end the game before touching the plate with his trail leg.

Collins didn’t challenge the call, a decision he was after the game was a poor one as there was nothing to lose. A lot of Mets fans feel the same way about Collins’ decision-making yesterday.

What’s Next?

The Mets try to salvage one game out of the series. Fans debate whether it’s worth benching Verrett and promoting Niese to the rotation.

Photo credit: Rick Osentoski – USA Today Sports

A lot of important Mets things happened on Monday, the least of which was a 6-5 extra-innings loss to the Yankees in Game 1 of the Subway Series.

The good

Matt Reynolds hit a three-run home run and Wilmer Flores continued to destroy lefties with a solo shot off C.C. Sabathia. Curtis Granderson also showed off some impressive range in the outfield that we haven’t seen much of until now, probably proving he’s fully capable of manning center field when Jay Bruce gets here. Still with me? No? Anyone?

The bad

Logan Verrett continues to be Not Matt Harvey, giving up three runs and four hits in five innings. It’s not bad per se, but three runs for a team who can’t buy runs seems insurmountable at this point.

The ugly

We have a few options for the messiest situation of the night. Okay, maybe more than a few. This list got away from be a little bit.

1) Addison Reed, who struck out Mark Teixeira for the second out in the eighth, then bookended a wild pitch with singles by Brian McCann and Didi Gregorius, allowing the Bombers to tie the game at 5. Luckily for the Mets, Reed has been practically untouchable all year, so he was due for a hiccup.

2) Seth Lugo loading the bases with no outs in the top of the 10th, allowing a Starlin Castro sacrifice fly to put the Yankees up 6-5.

3) Justin Ruggiano, who pulled up lame after hustling down to first in the fourth inning. The newly minted Met landed on the DL shortly after the final pitch, so at least we know he truly belongs in orange and blue.

4) Terry Collins, who inexplicably wasted precious outs against Dellin Betances by calling for Reynolds lay down a bunt to move James Loney, who led off the bottom of the 10th with a double, to third.

5) The Mets front office, unable to time flights from Las Vegas — or some other perfectly rational explanation, I’m sure — played short once again with both Asdrubal Cabrera and Yoenis Cespedes unavailable. Steven Matz pinch hit in the sixth and drew a walk, which I guess counts as a success, but at some point there has to be a serious discussion about a nonexistent bench. Unfortunately, that conversation will probably come when one of the few healthy pitchers hurts himself playing a position he shouldn’t be playing.

Photo credit: Brad Penner – USA Today Sports

The Mets had Wainwright in hot water early and often, but he was able to duck and weave for most of the game. Asdrubal Cabrera had the Mets’ first hit, lining a single off the wall in the first, but was thrown out trying to stretch for second. In the second, James Loney lead off with a double and scored on a single from Walker to give the Mets a 1-0 lead. Flores followed with a single to put runners at first and second with none out, but Conforto flew out and Travis d’Arnaud grounded into a double play to end the threat. (Mets with RISP: 1-for-3).

The lead was short lived, as the Cardinals rallied back in the top of the third. Verrett walked Wainwright to start the inning, then allowed a one out single to Aledmys Diaz. Stephen Piscotty struck out to put Verrett one out away from escaping, but Matts Holliday and Adams lined back-to-back doubles down the right field line to score three runs and give the Cardinals the lead.

The next four innings looked very typical to last two months of Mets baseball. The Mets put runners on first and second with one out in the fourth, but Flores grounded into a force out and Conforto was called out on strikes to end the inning and strand two (Mets with RISP: 1-for-5).

Travis d’Arnaud lead off the fifth with a single and reached second on a bunt, but Curtis Granderson grounded out and Cabrera struck out to strand another runner (Mets with RISP: 1-for-7). In the sixth, Yoenis Cespedes singled and Walker walked with one out, but Flores and Conforto failed to drive a run in yet again (Mets with RISP: 1-for-9).

Meanwhile, Verrett was doing a fantastic job holding the Cardinals at bay. He tossed seven innings of three-run ball, walking three and allowing five hits while striking out seven. Three of those hits and all three runs came in that rough third inning. Verrett was fantastic otherwise. He finished his night with a clean seventh inning, but exited in line for an unearned loss.

The Mets again threatened against Wainwright in the seventh, putting runners on first and third with none out after a pair of singles from d’Arnaud and Alejandro de Aza. To the dismay of Mets fans everywhere, futility with RISP persisted. Granderson struck out on a curveball in the dirt; Cabrera did the same (Mets with RISP: 1-for-11). That brought Cespedes to the plate.

Mike Matheny made the curious decision to leave Wainwright in to face Cespedes, even though he had already thrown 108 pitches. That decision would prove costly. First, Wainwright uncorked a wild pitch that scored d’Arnaud from third and moved de Aza to second. Then, after Cespedes fouled off three pitches on 3-2, Wainright finally hung a breaking ball that Cespedes bounced off the facing of the second deck in left field, giving the Mets a 4-3 lead. It was the first homer allowed by Wainwright since May 28 (longest homerless streak in the majors at 60.2 innings), and Cespedes’s first home run since July 5.

With Verrett now in line for a win, Addison Reed entered to protect a one run lead. Reed continued his dominance, striking out one as he put down the Cardinals in order in the top of the eighth. Jeurys Familia and his 52 save streak, the third longest in baseball history, entered for the ninth. He promptly retired Matt Adams on a fly ball to left, but then walked Jedd Gyorko on four pitches before surrendering a double to Mets nemesis Yadier Molina. Pinch runner Randal Grichuk scored from first. It tied the game and ended Familia’s save streak.

Familia got the next out by catching Molina trying for third on a weak comebacker from Jeremy Hazelbaker (assist to Flores for digging out a low throw from Familia). The Cardinals wouldn’t go away though, as Hazelbaker stole second, then scored on a double down the left field line by Kolten Wong. Diaz struck out to end the inning, but a one run lead had turned into a one run deficit.

The Mets stood little chance against Cardinals closer Seung-Hwan Oh. The final boss put the Mets down in order, inducing a fly out from de Aza, striking out Lagares, and inducing another fly out from Cabrera to end the game.

Miami and Washington both won, so the Mets dropped to 5.5 back of first and a 1.5 back of second in the division. They are also behind the Dodgers, Marlins, and Cardinals in the wild card standings, 1.5 games out of the second wild card spot.

Next up, the Rockies visit for four games. Jacob deGrom gets the ball in the afternoon opener, start time 1:10 ET.

Photo credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

The blue-hatted, grey jersey’d Mets.

WHAT HAPPENED, METS PITCHING BEATS MARLINS BATTING

It’s not that Logan Verrett dominated the Marlins. He didn’t. He did, however, give the Mets five solid innings of work while locked in what one might call a pitchers-duel with Marlins pitcher Adam Conley. Verrett was able to hold the Marlins to two hits and didn’t allow a run before the sixth inning rolled around. At that point, he gave up a wall-banging double to J.T. Realmuto and a two-run homerun to Christian Yelich. He wasn’t overpowering, but he was able to induce a bunch of grounders and keep the Marlins within reach. There’s value in passing the ball to a very solid Mets bullpen, anyhow.

Speaking of the bullpen, Hansel Robles and Addison Reed kept the Marlins off of the board in the late innings of this one. The only hit allowed by either took place on the first batter Robles faced after taking over for Verrett—a single by Giancarlo Stanton where he would ultimately be thrown out at 2^nd base trying to stretch it into a double and catch Neil Walker off-guard. It’s worth noting that the backend of the Mets bullpen—Robles and Reed—have been absolutely phenomenal of late. Robles hasn’t allowed an earned run in the nine innings he’s pitched in July, while Reed has been even better. Not only has Reed not allowed a run in 11.2 innings since June 23^rd, but he has only allowed four base runners throughout that entire span. Needless to say, the Mets have had little trouble bridging the gap from starter to the 9^th inning, which can really help the backend of the rotation in its current state. Then came Jeurys Familia, who just wanted to make it a little more interesting following a misplay in leftfield by Yoenis Céspedes that resulted in a Yelich lead-off double in the ninth. Overall, though, Familia’s command didn’t scream amazing, and he ended up allowing the winning run to come to the plate before everything was said and done. That being said, he was able to work out of it en route to recording his 50^th straight save.

WHAT HAPPENED, SAC FLIES AND LONG DRIVES

It’s weird that almost half of the runs for a team that recorded nine hits were scored via the ole sac fly, but that’s baseball. The three hits José Reyes collected in his return to Miami allowed the Mets to have a runner at third with less than two outs twice, and Céspedes cashed in both times. The Mets willingness to trade an out for a run put them in the lead through eight innings; however, James Loney’s willingness to hit a ball 418 feet would put them well enough in front of the Marlins. That pinch-hit two-run homer turned out to be just enough insurance on the one-run lead they had held, as Familia ended up surrendering one in the 9^th. It was an overall productive day for Mets hitters, though, as Wilmer Flores and Neil Walker were the only position players in the starting lineup to not record a hit.

WHAT HAPPENED, YESTERDAY

Logan Verrett and the Mets bullpen were able to hold the Marlins to three runs, which turned out to be just enough thanks to a late two-run homer by Loney. Familia made it interesting in the end; however, he was able to overcome and finish off a 5-3 win for the Mets.

WHAT HAPPENS, TODAY

I know it isn’t quite the Logan Verrett-Adam Conley match up we were all looking forward to from yesterday, but the Mets will send Jacob deGrom to the mound to face José Fernandez for the second game the series. A Mets win today would not only clinch a series victory, as well as a successful road-trip, but it would move the Mets back into 2^nd place behind the Washington Nationals.

Photo credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The Phillies did a better job manufacturing runs, beating the Mets 4-2.

Verrett Avoids Big Mistakes

Saturday was Logan Verrett’s second attempt to replace Matt Harvey’s spot in the rotation. As I wrote last week, the first attempt didn’t go so well. Verrett entered the game walking 11.1 percent of opposing batters, the eighth highest mark for anyone with at least 50 innings pitched. Last night he followed the maxim of “just throw strikes and trust your defense” as well as he could. Ryan Howard can still drive mistakes, and he crushed a hanging slider over the wall to lead off the second and give the Phillies a 1-0 lead. Verrett had a relatively easy time through the order until Andres Blanco and Carlos Ruiz had back-to-back two out singles. Freddy Galvis grounded out to first to end the threat.

Verrett started to tire in the fifth and needed help to avoid big innings. Phillies pitcher Jerad Eickhoff led off the fifth with a double. Odubel Herrera doubled a hanging slider off the top of the wall, but Eickhoff didn’t read the play and only got to third. The Mets conceded the run on a ground ball, but it took two batters before Cody Asche could deliver. In the sixth, Verrett got two outs then hit Ruiz with a curveball. Galvis singled on another hanging slider. Eickhoff stayed in, worked a 3-2 count and then tapped a slow ball to Asdrubal Cabrera. The pitcher hustled down the line for an infield hit and Ruiz tried to motor all the way from second. Thirty-seven-year-old catchers aren’t known for their speed, and James Loney immediately spun home to throw him out. Verrett may not have been pretty, but the Phillies couldn’t fully capitalize on his mistakes in the zone.

Mets Manufacture Runs

One of the main talking points surrounding the Mets this season has been their reliance on home runs to score. Relying on home runs shouldn’t be a problem in Citizens Bank Park, but the Mets did find other ways to score early. Juan Lagares – playing center while Yoenis Cespedes continues to rest his injured quad – doubled to lead off the third inning. Verrett successfully bunted and Jose Reyes flew to left for a sac fly. Curtis Granderson led off the next inning with a double and the Mets went to manufacturing another run. Neil Walker rolled over to advance Granderson and then Loney was hit by a pitch. Travis d’Arnaud hit a hanging slider off the end of his bat, deep enough for another sacrifice fly but not a home run.

After six innings of 2-2 ball, d’Arnaud led off the seventh with another double. This time the Mets couldn’t manufacture a run. Brandon Nimmo hit a comebacker right to Eickhoff, but the young Phillies pitcher held the ball too long and d’Arnaud was able to get back to second base. Lagares dropped a perfect sacrifice bunt. Kelly Johnson came in to pinch hit but couldn’t drive the ball deep enough to left. Cody Asche is a natural third baseman and horribly bungled the throw on Reyes’ sacrifice earlier in the game, but he threw cleanly here and d’Arnaud didn’t try to advance. Reyes walked to load the bases for Cabrera, who’s now in an 0-26 slump with runners in scoring position. Cabrera lined a pitch towards the gap, but it stayed up long enough for Asche to slide and catch it to end the inning.

Phillies Score on Late Mistakes

Peter Bourjos reached base in the seventh after Cabrera threw the ball away on a fairly routine play. Asche walked on a 3-2 count. Hansel Robles came in to face Maikel Franco, the Phillies best hitter. d’Arnaud called for a fastball away, but Robles threw a fastball that tailed off the plate inside. Franco muscled it for an RBI single to left. Howard swung at the next pitch and hit a deep fly out. Blanco grounded out but the Phillies had the lead. Erik Goeddel came in for the eighth and surrendered a leadoff double to Ruiz. Galvis advanced him on a groundout. Goeddel threw a splitter in the dirt that went past d’Arnaud for a wild pitch. Meanwhile, the Phillies’ duo of Hector Neris and Jeanmar Gomez shut the door on the Mets, who could only muster a two-out single in the eighth.

Notes

– This is the first time Erik Goeddel and his younger brother Tyler have both been in the majors when their teams faced each other. The Phillies needed a pinch hitter while Erik was pitching, but they called on Cesar Hernandez instead of making writers like me happy.

– Lucas Duda began baseball activity today. Look for our staff post on Monday for my prediction of how Duda fits in to the rest of the Mets season.

What’s Next?

Jacob deGrom will try to lead the Mets to a series win. Philly counters with Zach Eflin, who will be making his seventh career major league start.

Photo credit: Bill Streicher – USA Today Sports