Harol Gonzalez, RHP

The trend of my only seeing the best Harol Gonzalez starts continues. I watched him almost toss a perfect game in Kingsport a couple years back, then he spun six hitless frames last summer in Norwich. This time, despite getting knocked around more than I expected so far in the South Atlantic League, he cruised through seven innings, carving up the Lakewood lineup and featuring improved stuff across the board. Gonzalez has filled out some since my wife confused him for a ball boy in the Appalachian League. He’d still generously be referred to as an undersized righty, but the added bulk—and a couple mechanical tweaks—has given him more velocity, and he’s holding his stuff deeper into games than I’ve seen in the past. He touched 93 a few times and sat 89-92, which is a couple ticks higher than the past two seasons. He held the low 90s velo through 100 pitches, and the heater has more plane than I’ve seen in the past. I think it’s possible they’ve tweaked his armslot up to high-three-quarters, but I don’t have any video to check this theory against. Regardless, it’s a much better pitch now and his above-average command is still present.

Gonzalez has a full repertoire of offspeed pitches. The change is still his best secondary offering. He’s thrown a distinct traditional change and split before—and I believe he still does—although they bled together more than they have in past looks. The cambio ranged from 81-84 with the split action showing at the upper range of the velo band. Overall, the pitch shows good sink and fade and he maintains his arm speed well. He added a cutter/slider type thing, which sits 86-87 and features good late tilt, last year in Brooklyn. There is above-average command here too, and it works especially well off his sinking fastball. The curve is tighter that what he’s showed in past years, but it’s still a bit of a big, loopy breaker. He’s usually shown a tighter 12-6 ones in warmups, and this outing broke off a few of those in game action as well. He can keep the tight shape when spotting it for a strike, which is unusual at this level.

So the stuff has improved across the board. Gonzalez’s prior calling cards are still here too: advanced pitchability and the confidence to throw any of his pitchers in any count or game situation. There’s potentially four average or better offerings here now and plus makeup/mound smarts to help the arsenal play up.. Still, it’s a difficult profile: he’s a short, lean righty who has to make it as a starter to have a real major league role, as there isn’t an obvious bullpen fit for this profile. In the past I have pegged him as one of my acquire 3s, but that feels light now.

Desmond Lindsay, OF

There have been some furrowed brows and tweets of concern from #MetsTwitter about Lindsay’s slow start, but he looks like the same dude we ranked #5 preseason for good and for ill. The most important thing for Lindsay is he looks healthy. He moved well in center field and on the basepaths. When I saw him last season in Brooklyn, he was clearly compromised by his hamstring issues so it was difficult to get a feel for the athletic profile, although he *ahem* certainly looked the part. But now he looks like a decent bet to stick in center with more reps, and his jumps and routes compared well to his up-the-middle counterpart in Lakewood, Mickey Moniak. I didn’t get a useable home-to-first dig, but he’s clocked as a plus runner for me before and I have no reason to think that isn’t still the case. At the plate, he has quick hands that generate plus bat speed, although his eventual over-the-fence power may be limited by minimal loft and an all-fields approach. He is a strong kid though, and should yank enough mistakes to find 10+ home run power at his peak due to his average raw pop. Lindsay struggled with the more polished breaking stuff you see at this level, but overall I liked the plate approach. What he needs now more than anything else is pro reps, and I could see him having a decent second half as he continues to adjust to a full-season assignment, even if the final stat line—and don’t scout the statline—is unlikely to look too shiny given his slow start. I don’t see a reason to downgrade him at this point, although he is remains a very high risk prospect.

Luis Carpio, IF

My fondness for Carpio is well-documented. Labrum surgery derailed his 2016 season save for a few August DH appearances. He’s playing mostly second base now, and the arm was going to be stretched at short even pre-surgery. He might be a plus second base glove though, due to his excellent instincts and smooth, quick actions. The move to the right side of the infield puts more pressure on the bat though, and the early returns were a little disappointing. He’s just a bit over a year removed from going under the knife, but while his strong approach and contact skills are still present, the ball doesn’t jump off the bat the same way it did in Kingsport, and the bat speed looked fringy. That may come back, but it may not. There’s less physical projection now too as he’s filled out in the last two seasons. He’s quite young for the level, and I still think he’s the kind of polished player that will do enough at every stop to keep you dreaming on a major league future. But until the line drives get louder, Carpio looks more like a fringe utility guy than the potential regular of two years ago.

Blake Taylor, LHP

The player-to-be-named later in the Ike Davis deal—a trade that feels like it happened three full lifetimes ago for Mets fans—Taylor is still somehow only 21. In the interim, he’s struggled with performance and injuries, lost a year to Tommy John surgery, and finally made it to full season ball four seasons after being drafted. There isn’t much projection left at this point; Taylor has a mature frame with thick legs, but there’s enough stuff here at present to at least be intriguing. He sat 89-91, but he can cut it a bit, and it has some life up in the zone. His command of the pitch has improved, and he had success running it in to righties and splitting some lumber. His upper-70s curve had a nice shape to it, although he would cast it at times. It is a potentially average offering. He still throws a very forgettable cutter/slider thing, and I think I saw two changeups. There’s some deception in his delivery, and everything is very compact and repeatable. You are probably looking at a standard issue two-pitch lefty reliever here, but hey, that’s a major league role too.

Ali Sanchez, C

If Carpio was a little disappointing this week, Sanchez was very disappointing. I have advocated for him since the GCL—and yes, catchers are weird—but if I didn’t have better priors on Sanchez, I’d be tempted to call him a non-prospect. That is a pretty harsh grade for a catcher, as it doesn’t take much to be a viable emergency third catching option. So what’s changed? Despite pedestrian numbers in the complex and downright bad ones in Brooklyn, I’ve been fairly bullish on Sanchez’s bat. The swing I saw this year just had no oomph. He doesn’t use his lower half at all anymore, and while there is still enough feel with the barrel to make contact, it’s mostly bad/weak contact. There’s 20 power now, and the good contact tends to be short line drives up the middle or to the opposite field. The defense behind the plate was fine, but a little indifferent. He didn’t have to make any throws, but the reports are the arm is markedly improved at least. I have no special knowledge here, but Sanchez looked like a player struggling with a back or lower body injury right now. If he isn’t, well that non-prospect possibility looms a little larger.

Short Hops

LHP Jake Simon has room to grow into his wiry frame and an advanced curveball for the level, but there’s a lot of effort in the delivery at present and he was topping out at 90. OF Ricardo Cespedes underwhelmed again. The swing is mostly arms, all slash and chop and there isn’t much power there for how long it gets. He’s probably a corner outfielder long term too. C Brandon Brosher has 70-grade raw power and a plus arm, but the defense is still very rough, and he may not get the power into games enough to survive a move to one of the corners.

Photo credit: Reinhold Matay – USA Today Sports

(weekly statistics from games played from 4/13/17 through 4/19/17, season statistics through 4/19/17)

Las Vegas 51s (AAA)

Dominic Smith, 1B

Last week: 9-27, 2B, HR, 4 R, 5 RBI, 2 BB, 5 K

Season to date: .364/.407/.545, 2 HR, 9 K / 4 BB

I wrote last week about the major league timetable for Amed Rosario. I figured he had a better chance to see time in Flushing before Dominic Smith. Then Lucas Duda hyperextended his elbow, Wilmer Flores was hospitalized with a joint infection, Jay Bruce looked shaky at first base—”it’s incredibly hard”—and we are 24 hours away from learning Michael Conforto has cholera or something (never ford the river). And hey, since Smith isn’t on the 40-man roster, you’ve already got the extra year of service time banked. I don’t expect the Mets to promote him though. I sorta still suspect that they’d even prefer to go out and get James Loney again, because that is absolutely the kind of thing they do. Smith is doing what you’d expect him to do in Vegas so far, which is good, but not particularly enlightening. I’ve taken my share of slings and arrows for my reports on him over the years, but I’ve always written him as a major league regular, if not an impact one. And the Mets might need one of those “major-league regulars” sooner rather than later.

Binghamton…sigh…Rumble Ponies (AA)

Corey Oswalt, RHP

Last week: 6 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HR, HBP

Season to date: 10 IP, 6.30 ERA, 4.56 FIP, 27.3 K%, 4.6 BB%, 1.80 HR/9

Oswalt doesn’t get talked about much and there is a reason for that I will get to in a minute. But he got third-round money as a seventh-round prep arm in 2012. He is a big righty with a starter’s frame and plus velocity. So he looks the part. There have been some injury hiccups over the years, but he’s coming off a season where he struck out better than a batter an inning in the Florida State League. Oswalt is 23, which is a little old by “prospect age” for Binghamton, but not excessively so given his background. He’s certainly not a top ten guy, but he wasn’t even really in consideration for our Top 30. Unless you are a prospect obsessive like our staff and maybe five other dudes on #MetsTwitter, you may not have even heard of him. That’s weird isn’t it? Andrew Church has a similarly patchy medical record—and not all that much more stuff—and he made the list. Luis Silva, a teenage with a TJ on his medical record and one start outside of the complex was in consideration. This is weird, isn’t it?

Here’s the thing: It’s a really hittable 95. A guy with that fastball—and the slider isn’t awful either—shouldn’t be giving up the most hits in the South Atlantic League, as Oswalt did in 2015. He shouldn’t even really be spending all of 2015 in the South Atlantic League. Despite his height, Oswalt doesn’t get a ton of plane on his heater, and he has below-average command. The velo and breaker have been sufficient to miss a notable number of bats so far, but the contact in the upper minors might only get louder for him.

St. Lucie Mets (A+)

Jeff Diehl, OF/DH/P?

Last Week: 9-21, 2 2B, 2 HR, 4 R, 8 RBI, 4 BB, 9 K; 0.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

Season to date: .306/.419/.528, 2 HR, 14 K / 7 BB

I was sitting in the press box in New Hampshire watching the crew blowtorch the dirt around home plate to try and get it dry enough to play. A guy who sure looked a lot like Bingo scheduled starter Tyler Pill came out with some of the coaching staff to observe the process. He had a bat in his hand and when he got bored tossed a ball up in the air and took a hack at it from near home plate. The ball almost went out to right-center. It’s a short porch, but Tyler Pill is a heckuva hitter. He was a two-way player at Cal State-Fullerton and there were some teams interested in him as an outfielder, although his pro career was always likely to be on the mound. He’s still 86-90 with three below-average secondaries. The game ended up getting banged about 90 minutes later, but I saw Pill the next night and he looked like the same passable Double-A starter in a system that has dealt a whole lot of guys the last couple years that would be passable Double-A starters. He’s hit .362/.384/.493 in 115 scattered PA. He probably ends up not quite good enough to hack it as a position player, but what do you have to lose?

Rainy Lara popped up on the Bridgeport Bluefish roster this year after getting no offers as a minor-league free agent. I don’t know if I have seen more Lara or Pill starts at this point in my life. I could look it up. It’s close either way. Lara doesn’t have Pill’s facility with the stick, but he has a pretty good slider, a bad arm action, and  never held his fringy velocity past 50 pitches or so. But he was a passable Double-A starter in an org that has gone fishing for indy ball arms to fill that role an awful lot lately. I wonder if the velo and slider might have played up in the pen. Maybe enough to make him a role 3? I don’t know and the Mets don’t know, and he’s probably still good enough to start for the Bluefish.

Jeff Diehl got $135K as a late round prep catcher who was too tall to be a pro catcher. He has plus raw and a heckuva arm. I’ve seen him plenty over the years and stopped taking notes on him in the Penn League. He’s 23-years-old in Advanced-A now. The skillset probably tops out in Double-A as a corner guy—they have tried him in all of them—that strikes out too much . I suppose there’s a decent enough chance he’s Travis Taijeron.

Oh, he’s also 95-97 off the mound, which we found out because St. Lucie has needed to throw a position player out there a couple times already. It makes sense, because you have to have a really good arm to get drafted as a 6’5” high school catcher.

The Mets don’t make these moves. They don’t try Tyler Pill in the outfield. They don’t move Rainy Lara to the bullpen. Now these are trickier than the prospect watcher would like. We want to convert everyone to catcher. We want every no-hit shortstop to try his hand at pitching. There are very few Adam Loewens and Jason Mottes. You need organizational buy-in. You need player buy-in.

But man, how many dudes in that system right now can touch 97? Diehl will be a minor league free agent after this season. If the Mets don’t try him on the mound, someone else will. 95-97 has a way of getting around.

Columbia Fireflies (A)

Luis Carpio, IF

Last Week: 9-25, 2 2B, 4 R, RBI, 3 BB, 8 K

Season to date: .347/.450/.408, 7 SB, 13 K / 9 BB

I am guessing I hit the over on the Vegas line (1.5) for “weeks into this column that Jeffrey writes about Luis Carpio.” My fondness for him is well-known, but I was leery with him coming off labrum surgery. Early returns have been fine, although the live reports don’t quite match the triple slash. Unlike Wuilmer Becerra, who had similar surgery, Carpio is a polished, up-the-middle glove. That puts less pressure on the bat to come all the way back and then develop further. The shoulder surgery may force him to second base full time—he’s already playing mostly at the keystone in Columbia—which isn’t ideal. But the ball jumped off his bat as a 17-year-old in Kingsport. I thought there might eventually be 40 power there. I also thought he might move quickly. We are going to have to be a bit more patient with Carpio now. But hey, I’m in this one for the long haul.

Photo credit: Steve Mitchell – USA Today Sports

Short Hops

The other Gonzalez in the rotation, Harol Gonzalez, is a joy to watch, with four pitches he can throw for strikes, and good feel for all three secondaries, the best of which is a slider with late cut. The fastball tops out at 90 though, and he has trouble holding even that velocity later in starts. There is enough pitchability here to beguile A-ball hitters, but it is tough to see a major league arm here without a significant velocity and stamina jump. The mini-Pedro aesthetic is fun though…The Mets tweaked 2016 third-round pick Blake Tiberi’s swing during his first pro summer, and that may have contributed to his short-season struggles. When his swing was right, the Louisville third baseman looked like the best hitter on that Brooklyn team. Expect plenty of Daniel Murphy—pre-Kevin-Long—comps if that happens more often in 2017…Jordan Humphreys is the less-polished version of Merandy Gonzalez, with a tick less velocity and a more inconsistent curve…shortstop Milton Ramos got $750,000 as an overslot third round pick in 2014 on the strength of his shortstop glove, but he struggled at the plate in his first go-round in the South Atlantic League, and may be stuck in a middle infield rotation with Carpio and 2017 fourth rounder Michael Paez…lefty Blake Taylor, who you may remember from the Ike Davis deal, will look to prove he is healthy after a 2015 Tommy John surgery. I liked what I saw in 2014 a bit, and he’s somehow still only 21.
Photo credit: Reinhold Matay – USA Today Sports

Thomas Szapucki, LHP

As a live-armed prep pick in the mid-single digit rounds, Szapucki’s 2016 wasn’t totally out of nowhere. But the jump from low-90s and a promising curve to mid-90s with sharp action and a wipeout curve is pretty huge, and the numbers Szapucki put up in both Kingsport and Brooklyn were absolutely staggering. A back injury ended his 2016 slightly prematurely, and while we don’t believe it to be a serious injury, back problems and pitching prospects don’t always go well together. If Szapucki continues to progress his stuff, and if he continues to run strikeout rates into the mid-teens per nine, our ranking of him as the 69th-best prospect in baseball will no longer seem nice by this time next year. He’ll probably open in Low-A Columbia as part of the traveling Tim Tebow Circus, but High-A and even Double-A are within reach for later in the season. — Jarrett Seidler

Andres Gimenez, SS

I got a question in a BP chat recently asking me to compare Kevin Maitan and Andres Gimenez. Sammy in Connecticut seemed a bit skeptical that there was really that big a gap between them as prospects. I’m fairly confident that Maitan’s surfeit of offensive tools is enough to make him a Top 101 prospect before he ever takes the field for a professional game, stateside or otherwise. I get the premise though. Gimenez was very highly rated in the 2015 July 2 class, and we have reports on him from actual games, granted ones from the Dominican Summer League. It’s all data of course, but the best data can be found behind home plate, which is why I will be trucking to whatever short-season affiliate he ends up at this year to find out if we were in fact a year too late on him. I expect to find a polished shortstop and an advanced hitter for an 18-year-old, like if someone used the upgrade meme on Luis Carpio. But I suspect Gimenez has the capacity to surprise me as well, which is why I keep gassing up the car for East Tennessee every year. And speaking of Carpio … — Jeffrey Paternostro

Luis Carpio, SS/2B

We ranked Luis Carpio as the third-best prospect in the Mets system heading into the 2016 season. We ranked him ahead of Dom Smith, Desmond Lindsay, and Robert Gsellman. (I say we, but I was driving that bandwagon, and my byline is on the list.) Then Carpio tore his labrum in the Spring. See, it’s not just pitchers! It was an aggressive ranking at the time for a kid that spent most of the 2015 season as a 17-year-old, but it’s rare to find that level of defensive polish and advanced hitting ability at any age in the short-season leagues. The injury was to his right shoulder, and his arm was already maybe better suited to the right side of the infield, but I’m antsy to check in on the still-only-19-year-old. He made quite the first impression. — Jeffrey Paternostro

Tyler Bashlor, RHP

The Mets turned some heads in 2013, when they handed a $550,000 signing bonus to their 11th-round pick, junior college reliever Tyler Bashlor. After signing with the club, he pitched in 13 games for Kingsport that year, but then didn’t throw another professional pitch until 2016, losing two full seasons after undergoing Tommy John surgery. In a 2016 season that was spent primarily pitching out of the bullpen for the Columbia Fireflies, Bashlor showed why the Mets believed in him enough to give him more than half of a million dollars three years prior, posting a 12.16 K/9 and 2.50 ERA at the level. His fastball, which sits in the mid-90s and touched as high as 98 mph in 2016, is a legitimate swing-and-miss pitch that should carry him to Queens. The bigger questions for Bashlor are his secondary pitches and control. His command and control should figure to take strides forward in 2017 as he is another year removed from surgery. His slurve, which currently sits in the low-80s, is a pitch that could be improved upon (attn: Dan Warthen). If Bashlor is able to progress enough with command and the breaking ball, he will find himself on the fast track to pitching out of the Mets bullpen before too long. He figures to open this season in the bullpen for either St. Lucie or Binghamton. If all goes well, he won’t finish the season with the same affiliate that he began the year with. — Skyler Kanfer

Marcos Molina, RHP

The continuing saga of Zack Wheeler reminds us on a near-daily basis that Tommy John surgery is still anything but routine. Yet Marcos Molina has had, well, the “routine” recovery, popping back up about a year out from surgery. He used the Arizona Fall League as something of a rehab stint, throwing short outings and flashing the premium fastball/slider combination that made him one of the system’s best pitching prospects two years ago. With violent mechanics, a TJS in his background, and durability questions even before that, Molina still might be a reliever in the end, but 2017 represents his shot to get back on the fast track as a prospect. He could open as high as the Double-A Binghamton Rumble Ponies, and a pitcher on the 40 in the high-minors is of course only a phone call away from The Show. — Jarrett Seidler

Andrew Church, RHP

The 2013 second-round pick spent years in the wilderness bouncing around the lowest levels of the system as an oft-injured project, largely falling off the prospectdom map. In a tale that’s been around as long as there have been pitching prospects, he showed up in 2016 a new man, coming out of extended spring in May to shine for Low-A Columbia, mixing in a fill-in stint in High-A Port St. Lucie and a late-August emergency appearance for hometown Triple-A Las Vegas. Once again touching the mid-90s with his fastball and featuring a promising slider, Church could start back at High-A or get a bump to Double-A, where I think I have a pretty good chance to see him in Binghamton’s late-May/early-June visit to Trenton. A full year of effectiveness should get him in strong consideration for both a spot on both the 40-man roster and high up on next year’s prospect lists. — Jarrett Seidler

Desmond Lindsay, OF

Beyond the trio of Mets prospects who made the BP 101 list, there is not a prospect in the Mets farm system with more upside than Desmond Lindsay. Lindsay, the organization’s top draft pick in 2015, is a centerfielder with all the raw tools that any scout would fawn over. In 2016, Lindsay’s performance represented his skillset, as he posted a .297/.418/.450 line with the Brooklyn Cyclones, including a .344 True Average*, 14.9 percent walk rate, and 19.4 percent strikeout rate. Unfortunately, since his senior year of high school, Lindsay has had considerable hamstring issues. They kept his sidelined for most of his draft year, which caused him to fall to the Mets in the second round, and they have continued to hamper him since signing with the club. Recurring injuries for a teenager could very well be the sign of, well, more hamstring injuries, or it could be something that a player as young as Lindsay, just 20, could outgrow. In the near-future, Lindsay could very easily be a guy who is being talked about as the next uber Mets prospect—or, in other words, the Amed Rosario of two years from now—or he could be a guy who is being talked about as the new Reese Havens. His performance and health in 2017, where he most likely will open in Columbia, will tell the story. — Skyler Kanfer

( * – Editor’s Note: For those of you curious, those numbers indicate that he hit about as well compared to his league as Joey Votto did compared to MLB.) 

Tomas Nido, C

The ride hasn’t always been smooth for the 2012 eighth-round pick, who prior to 2016 had never posted a minor league OPS higher than .660. However, over those first few years of his minor league career, his defensive game advanced from raw at best to his calling card. Due to his overall strong catching ability and above-average arm, he was able to open the 2016 in St. Lucie at age-22. Last season, his bat finally started catching up to his glove. In a full season in the pitching-friendly Florida State League, Nido posted a .320/.357/.459 line with seven homers and a .294 True Average in 370 PA. He more than halved his strikeout rate, going from a 25.7 percent clip in Savannah to a very respectable 11.4 percent in 2016. If he is able to combine his developed defensive skills with his newfound hitting ability, he has a chance to be a starting catcher. Nido, who was praised when he was drafted for having plus raw power, still has plenty of room to turn that power into game power. Doing that, in addition to potentially increasing upon his 5.1 percent walk rate from 2016, could make him a viable long-term answer for the Mets behind the dish. I look forward to watching Nido play in person in Binghamton starting this April. — Skyler Kanfer

Luis Guillorme, SS

If you are reading this website, you don’t need to be told that Amed Rosario or Justin Dunn or Desmond Lindsay are worth the price of admission. The implication in all these entries is that we want to see something new. There are guys here with 2016 breakout seasons that we didn’t get enough reports on. There are injured pitchers on their way back who have flashed major league stuff in the recent past. You want a sleeper or you want to know if the breakout guy is real. Prospects can change a lot from year-to-year, but I don’t expect I will be updating my priors much on Luis Guillorme. If anything, I worry a bit about his bat against Double-A velocity. But goddamn am I happy to have him within driving distance again. Rosario has the louder defensive tools and is a plus shortstop in his own right, but there is no one I would rather watch at the 6 than Guillorme. His defense has an ineffable quality to it. Immanuel Kant would suggest that’s his glove is far too functional in scope to have true aesthetic beauty, but I part ways with the German on that. Kant more famously wrote that one should “live your life as though your every act were to become a universal law.” Guillorme’s actions in the field set the bar too high for every other shortstop I’m afraid, but I am happy to see him synthesize utility and art in the infield as often as possible this year. — Jeffrey Paternostro

Tim Tebow, QB/OF?

Tim Tebow isn’t a real baseball prospect. He’s probably not going to make the majors, and if he does it’s likely to be in a cameo that he won’t have earned based on his own merits. But he is an elite athlete—a player so uniquely talented at football that he was a first-round quarterback despite a known and near-complete inability to make pro throws—and his transition to baseball will be nothing if not fascinating. Can he compete even at the lowest levels? He’s currently expected to open at Low-A Columbia, which is an appropriate level for what we suspect is his baseball ability, but a level where he’ll be about a decade older than the real prospects. Both Jeffrey and I are preparing for the circus for when Columbia comes to Lakewood early in the season. (We totally didn’t throw Tebow in down here because we were dividing a list of ten between three people and had one slot left over, no sir.) — Jarrett Seidler

Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

1. SS Amed Rosario
2. RHP Robert Gsellman
3. LHP Thomas Szapucki
4. 1B Dominic Smith
5. CF Desmond Lindsay
6. RHP Justin Dunn
7. SS Andres Gimenez
8. OF Brandon Nimmo
9. SS Gavin Cecchini
10. RF Wuilmer Becerra

And now, prospects 11 through 20!

11. Luis Carpio, SS/2B, Age 18 (GCL/Brooklyn)

JP: Life comes at you fast. A year ago, Carpio was a polished, 17-year-old Venezuelan middle infielder with a potential plus hit tool, not all that different from Andres Gimenez, minus a million bucks in the bank or so.

JS: And now he’s a shortstop-in-name-only … probably? Do we have any idea if he can still throw or not?

JP: He spent a few weeks DHing at two short-season levels, getting the Spring Training he never had. So no. He was always gonna be a little stretched at shortstop, the arm was more solid-average than plus. Outlook cloudy, I guess. We’ll know more this Spring, and a heck of a lot more next September. I’ve comped him to Ruben Tejada in the past, which tends to annoy Mets fans, but Tejada was a very useful player his first couple seasons before he had major injuries.

JP: …

JP: Oh, right.

12. Tomas Nido, C, Age 22 (St. Lucie)

JS: So the Mets have always liked Nido’s catching abilities and his bat came alive in 2016. I don’t think any of us actually got any Florida State League looks this year, did we? Internal reports at BP from the rest of the prospect team were pretty good. Catchers are freakin’ weird.

JP: I did not get my usual fix of Lola’s Seafood, Vine and Barley, and divorce lawyer highway billboards unfortunately.

SK: Catchers always seem to emerge late and have unpredictable career paths and Nido may be yet another example of that. Kevin Plawecki was once a catcher with a potential 60 hit tool and Matt Wieters was supposed to be the next Johnny Bench, while two years ago Willson Contreras was left unprotected for the Rule 5 Draft and in the span of one year Carson Kelly went from posting a .263 OBP in the Florida State League to appearing in major league games.  

JP: Hey, I only put a 55 on Plawecki’s hit … uh, and thought he would be a fringy defender. Catchers are freakin’ weird. Nido has a case to be higher, but I’d like to see him do it for another year before I bump him into the top ten after two years of vaguely anonymous looks at him.

JS: And now Plawecki’s the new really awesome defensive catcher/future Tampa Bay Ray that can’t hit a lick. Go figure.

SK: When Nido was drafted in the eighth round in 2012 and signed for $250,000 the scouting report on him indicated plus raw power but a raw defensive toolset that put into question whether or not he would be able to stick behind the plate. For the first few years of his minor league career, his defensive tools became his calling card that allowed him to reach St. Lucie despite not hitting at all until this year. If he is able to combine his developed defensive skills with his newfound hitting ability and the raw power that made him interesting in the draft four years ago, he has chance to be a major league starting catcher and a good one at that. The fact that the bat only showed up for the first time as a pro in 2016 keeps him lower down on the list, but catchers are weird.

13. Gabriel Ynoa, RHP, Age 23 (Las Vegas/New York)

JP: My #brand is looking good for 2017 as Ynoa is in line to be the Mets eighth starter, which means he might be the Mets fifth starter by May 1st. He got the Warthen bump in the majors, sitting 94 in the majors with both his fastballs and the slider tightened up and looked more Warthen-like at times. But Ynoa’s long arm action and low slot give hitters a long look at the ball, and major league hitters sure hit a lot of line drives off him, and may limit how much magic the Mets coaching staff can work here. There’s a major league arm in here, but it’s off the likely role 40, middle relief or fifth starter, variety.

14. Ali Sanchez, C, Age 19 (Brooklyn)

JP: Don’t scout the stat line, kids.

JS: I have no sense if Ali Sanchez can hit. I also increasingly have no sense if we should care whether a catcher hits.

JP: So you were paying attention during Harry Pavlidis and Jonathan Judge’s Saberseminar presentation too? I don’t know if we are any good at evaluating the important non-hitting aspects from our view behind the backstop either. I do think Sanchez will hit. I like the swing. I like the way he uses center and right-center, and he sure looks the part behind the plate, throwing arm excepted. We do have a better idea about how little that matters now compared to the rest of the defensive profile now.

JS: What we do know is that Ali Sanchez gets amazing, incredible marks on the soft factors. There’s the famous quote from our dearly-departed Triple-A skipper about how he’s the best framer in the system. He’s still a few levels from having minor-league framing numbers, but he’s supposed to be really great, and most of the dudes who have supposed to have been really great have been. And again, catchers are freaking weird. Austin Hedges slugged .597 in Triple-A this year! Austin Freaking Hedges!!!

JP: If you are a disappointing prospect looking to get some new helium, go to El Paso, young man.

JS: It’s still .597 slugging for a guy who once looked like he couldn’t hit water if he fell off a boat.

SK: While Sanchez doesn’t project as much of a power hitter, his defensive ability could allow to climb up the minor league ranks until he starts to hit more, like Tomas Nido. And Sanchez has the advantage of being an even better defender than Nido and anyone else in the organization. If he can find a way to hit like Yadier Molina did, he can become, well, a slightly lesser version of Yadier Molina.

JP: And if I can find a way to drink like Jason Parks, I can become, well, a slightly lesser version of Jason Parks.

JS: Congratulations on your 2021 World Series ring, Jeffrey.

JP: Sanchez could be much higher on this list a year from now. He could also be a third catcher for the Binghamton Rumble Ponies six years from now. Catchers are freakin’ weird.

SK: Remember Francisco Peña?

JP: Congratulations on your 2015 World Series ring, Francisco Peña.

15. Marcos Molina, RHP, Age 21 (DNP)

JS: It’s a hell of an arm. He’s had basically two lost years, I don’t think any of the three of us thinks he can start, and he’s ahead of two actual major-league contributors. It’s a hell of arm.

JP: The grainy YouTube videos coming out of fall ball suggest that his wonky mechanics haven’t changed significantly, but the stuff has come back well a year out from his surgery. This is a placeholder ranking that probably is wrong in one direction or the other (aren’t they all), because either the stuff comes all the way back and he stays healthy–and he’s a top 10 prospect in the system–or he’s a reliever who’s going to start 2017 in the Florida State League.

SK: If you think Luis Severino is all upper body, then you should look at Marcos Molina’s delivery.

16. Josh Smoker, LHP, Age 27, (Las Vegas/New York)

JS: Why in Seaver’s good name is Smoker still eligible for this list? He should’ve been up in August or September 2015, let alone waiting a full year. He’s a good MLB lefty reliever now—probably more a setup guy than a straight LOOGY—and he’ll never be anything more because this is what he is. But that is pretty cool for a dude signed off an independent league tryout.

JP: What he is: A fastball/split lefty with a 96 mph fastball that was somehow cast as a LOOGy throwing a below-average slider a lot because Terry Collins. I do worry if gopheritis will continue to haunt him a bit, the fastball lacks wiggle, but he’s providing major league value now.

SK: A lefty that can throw in the mid-high 90s. Along with Addison Reed and Hansel Robles, Smoker remains probably one of only three locks to make the Mets opening day bullpen.

17. T.J. Rivera, IF, Age 27, (Las Vegas/New York)

JP: Pass.

SK: He’s from the Bronx.

JS: It might be a 60 hit tool. And the rest of the profile might not be enough to carry it. But 60 hit guys who can sort of stand at many positions do have roles as good utility players. He could be a good utility player. By the meritocracy version of the game, he probably does deserve a chance to figure out if there’s more there.

JP: He also had a top-five swinging strike rate on the Mets in 2016 and that checks out with my eye test, where he looked overmatched by better velocity and better sliders. He’s below-average defensively even at second. He could hit an empty .250 and be on a Jet Blue to McCarran by 5/1. But 3’s play in the majors too.  

SK: TJ Rivera has absolutely no secondary tools. His defense, arm, power, and run tools are not major-league caliber and he can’t walk either. But the hit tool is so good that he’s going to stick as a major league player for a while.

18. Luis Guillorme, SS, Age 21 (St. Lucie)

JP: We’re at the part of the list where we are stretching for guys with major league futures. If you want to have a major league future as the 18th best prospect in a system, it helps to do one thing really well. It especially helps if that one thing is “play shortstop.” Guillorme fits the bill. This is the converse of the Rivera profile, if you are a 60 shortstop glove (and Guillorme might be a 70), it’s usually enough.

JS: Legitimately the best defensive infielder in the organization. Some feel for hitting. No power. Can we just cut and paste one of your old Wilfredo Tovar reports?

SK: If this was the 1970s, he’d be penciled in as a major league starting shortstop for the next decade.

JP: He’d be the best shortstop in the league in the 1870s, even had the mustache for a while. I’ll always root for him, insomuch as I “root” for prospects anymore. He’s an 80 makeup, baseball rat that gets absolutely every inch out of his limited physical tools. I guess that means I should be higher on Rivera, but aesthetics matter here too. And good shortstop defense is high art.

JS: He’s really cool and he’s got a shot because it doesn’t take much for this profile to bump into major-league regulardom.

19. Peter Alonso, 1B, Age 21 (Brooklyn)

JP: I get it. I really do. But this org has been putting overqualified college dudes in Brooklyn for as long as there has been a Brooklyn, and they always hit a ton.

JS: The competition Peter Alonso faced in the New York-Penn League was arguably worse than the competition he faced in the SEC. The SEC is good college baseball. The Penn League has some dudes throwing 83 that can’t locate. You would expect a high-round SEC pick to destroy the Penn League, and he did. It doesn’t mean much.

SK: Raw power is fun. Did you see that 113 mph exit velocity in the NY Penn League?

JP: I’ll just quote what I wrote about him earlier this Summer:

“Alonso’s stance is wide open and he stands well off the plate. He uses a medium leg lift to close, but he starts the whole process early and lets the leg hang a bit before getting it down. The timing here is inconsistent and often leaves his upper half trying to catch up. The swing itself has some length to the ball, the bat speed doesn’t jump out at you, and Alonso struggles with balls below his waist and spin generally. It’s a long-and-strong power profile, and those tend to struggle the first time they see higher-quality stuff. Even short-season arms have occasionally been able to exploit the holes (though they have many more times given him balls up in the zone he can both catch up to and get extended on).“

Ask me again in Double-A. First base profiles are tough.

SK: I like first basemen with plus power profiles over first basemen who are reliant on any other tool.

20. Merandy Gonzalez, RHP, Age 20 (Brooklyn)

JP: Merandy Gonzalez is the kind of polished Latin pitcher the Mets like to put in the Brooklyn rotation. He has a little more stuff than the median Cyclones arm though. His fastball regularly hits 95. He can elevate it to get Ks and command it down to both sides of the plate. The curve flashes and he can spot or bury it. It’s inconsistent and he’ll slow his arm and guide it in when it’s coming out of his hand in the 70s. He doesn’t have an ideal starter’s frame and the change is crude. There’s a major league arm in here, albeit one best-suited to the pen. Not bad for No. 20.

SK: What round of the draft would Merandy Gonzalez be projected to go in as a 21-year-old next year?

JP: Is he just Dakota Hudson minus four inches? For all you kids out there, there’s a reason I don’t do amateur stuff.

JS: I mean, we’re listing him a spot after a mid-second round pick whose stock hasn’t changed much and signed for around slot, so mid-second round sounds just about right. And that’s not far off from Dakota Hudson, really.

Photo Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The Top 10

1. Steven Matz, LHP

Current Assignment: New York Mets

2016 to date: 60.1 IP, 2.39 ERA, 25% K, 5.3% BB, 54 H, 4 HR

Well this has gone well.

Before our national list came out, I argued hard for Matz over Julio Urias; I also think there was an case for Matz as the best pitching prospect in baseball over even Giolito. Being able to do it in the majors matters, and Matz had already shown flashes of that. He has taken another step forward this season–and my No. 2 starter projection on him might even end up low–although the command needs to get more consistent and he still has his own durability questions to answer. 30 starts and 180 major league innings this year will go a long way towards silencing the last concerns about the Mets southpaw.

Graduated (and pretty pretty good)

2. Amed Rosario, SS

Current Assignment: Advanced-A St. Lucie

2016 to date: 262 PA, .307/.359/.445, 7.6% BB, 13% K

Rosario is repeating the Florida State League, but is still one of the youngest players in the Sunshine State. On the preseason list I noted that his defensive tools were more advanced than his offensive ones, but the bat has begun to catch up in a big way. He’ll be in Binghamton in the second half, where I will get to see him live for the first time since 2014, but we already have big internal reports on him, and I had a scout sing his praises to me recently as well. The mothership starts our midseason top 50 list discussion soon, and Rosario will be in the conversation for the top half.

Stock Up

3. Luis Carpio, SS/2B

Current Assignment: Minor League Disabled List

Carpio was the most aggressive ranking on this list. I definitely stand by it, and I think he’s still a top-10 prospect in the system even after shoulder surgery that will keep him out for the whole year. The issue is with his throwing arm which may accelerate a move to the right side of the infield, but we won’t know that (or anything else) until he gets back on the field on the field in 2017.

Stock Down

4. Gavin Cecchini, SS 

Current Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas

2016 to date: 177 PA, .314/.375/.409, 9% BB, 12.4% K

All Cecchini has done for the past season-and-a-half is hit. Well, he’s hit enough to be a valuable up-the-middle bat in the majors at least. He tinkered with a large leg kick in A-ball, and while that did give him a little more pop into the gaps, it left him vulnerable to offspeed. When I saw him the next year in Binghamton, he was using a simple toe tap to close from a slightly open stance and a flatter overall swing plane. This has improved his contact ability, but sapped whatever gap power he might have had. Cecchini is mostly a singles hitter nowadays, so I do wonder if major league arms will challenge him more once the book gets out, cutting into his on-base numbers despite his strong strike zone control.

The defense was always supposed to be the sure thing for Cecchini. He was drafted as an advanced shortstop glove, and although no pundits promised Gold Gloves, he was seen as about a sure thing to stick at short as you will find coming out of high school. But as a pro, Cecchini has struggled with the responsibilities on the left side of the infield. The arm is short for the position, and can be scattershot at times, especially when he has to reach back for more. The range is a step short as well, and he struggles with his actions at faster game speeds. He’s played every one of his professional games at shortstop, but it is hard to see him being more than a once-a-week guy there in the majors. At second base, there probably isn’t enough offense to be a starter unless he hits .280. But there is a major league role to be found when you can hit a bit and play up-the-middle.

Stock Holding

5. Dominic Smith, 1B

Current Assignment: Double-A Binghamton

2016 to date: 241 PA, .273/.324/.386, 7.1% BB, 15.8% K

Of course you should never scout the stat line.

But sometimes there are reasons for the stat line.

Stock Down

6. Brandon Nimmo, OF 

Current Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas

2016 to date: 222 PA, .325/.403/.521, 11.3% BB, 16.7% K

Nimmo’s hot May and June has piqued Mets fans interest again, but there doesn’t appear to be a ton of real change here (unless you buy into the newest offseason swing/stance tweak). In fact, his profile really hasn’t changed in five years. Nimmo’s the Casey Stengel quip come to life; in five years he’s actualized his chance to be 23. That might sound pessimistic, but while he hasn’t figured out how to hit lefties, or added as much power as projected, Nimmo has several skills that will serve him well in the majors. He won’t kill you in centerfield, and he can get on-base and hit for average power against righties. He isn’t Jose Fernandez, and he isn’t left-handed Hunter Pence, a common comp during his first couple pro seasons, but Nimmo is potentially a useful long-side platoon bat.

I do think the risk here does get understated at times though. His overly passive approach might fall apart against major league pitching, but his first half in Vegas is a step in the right direction. Like Cecchini, Nimmo may end up a bit of a disappointment as a high first-round pick, but both should have significant major league careers.

Stock Holding

7. Desmond Lindsay, OF

Current Assignment: Extended Spring Training

I had hoped the Mets might push Lindsay to Columbia this year. It would have been an extremely aggressive assignment given the background (learning a new position, missed most of his senior season), but he impressed me in a brief cameo for Brooklyn at the end of last summer. A minor leg injury and a couple hit-by-pitches in minor league camp put the kibosh on that though. Lindsay will now head back to Coney Island, surrounded by a much, much better crop of prospects than he was last year.

Stock Holding

8. Wuilmer Becerra, OF

Current Assignment: High-A St. Lucie

2016 to date: 167 PA, .338/.370/.409, 4.2% BB, 15.6% K

Man, heck if I know.

For most of his pro career, Becerra looked like he was built right to factory specs for “right field profile:” A tall Venezuelan with a projectable body, he checked off every box: plus speed, arm, and pop. He was raw at the plate, but had a plan and a swing by the time he got to Savannah and you could easily see him growing into an everyday bat in a corner. Then he went to St. Lucie and hit like Tony Gwynn for two months.

Now it does go back further than that. The Savannah staff made some changes to his stance in 2015, and in the second half there he hit .291/.348/.355. Savannah’s home park was brutally tough on power, but that makes just 22 extra-base hits in his last 94 games and only one home run. If you want to hand wave some of the power outage, he has dealt with shoulder and back issues in 2016. I also got a positive scout quote on him recently, but there is a reason we don’t make Tony Gwynn comps.

Stock the heck if I know

9. Robert Gsellman, RHP

Current Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas

2016 to date: 69.1 IP, 17% K, 5.9% BB, 67 H, 2 HR

Gsellman added a slider this spring in major league camp, and that, along with a small bump in velocity, boosted his K-rate from 12.7% in 2015 to 17% so far in this year’s campaign. That’s still nothing to write home about, but the slider would flash plus in my April look, and the organization has done a very good job developing this type of arm recently. The future projection here hasn’t moved all that much, but he’s another step closer to the majors after his recent promotion to Vegas–although his first start didn’t go well … welcome to the PCL!–and a better bet to reach that OFP now.

Stock Up

10. Ali Sanchez, C

Current Assignment: Extended Spring Training

No real surprise here. Sanchez is a long, long way away, between being a catcher and having just come stateside to the complex last year. He could start at either Kingsport or Brooklyn, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Mets push him to the New York-Penn League to get some experience catching their new crop of arms.

Stock Holding

The five who were just interesting

Matt Reynolds, IF

Current Assignment: New York Mets

Reynolds was listed here in the winter due to the likelihood he would be able to help out the 2016 team. And he’s bounced back and forth between Vegas and Flushing this year, functioning as the 25th man and extra infield glove. He’s never hit all that much in Vegas, considering that it is Vegas, so he has fallen behind guys like Travis Taijeron, Ty Kelly, and TJ Rivera in #MetsTwitter’s ever-changing #FREE________ hierarchy. But he is younger and a better defender than those three, and is likely to have a major league job until the Mets trade for Juan Uribe in six weeks.

Raphael Ramirez, OF

Current Assignment: Extended Spring Training

Ramirez will be flanking Desmond Lindsay in Brooklyn with either Arnaldo Berrios or the next of our interesting five.

Ricardo Cespedes, OF

Current Assignment: Extended Spring Training

I think Cespedes heads to Kingsport, where it will be easier to get him centerfield reps (although I don’t see him sticking up the middle long-term). The Mets could get aggressive though and assign him to Brooklyn and Lindsay to Savannah. A lot of these decisions down to how guys look in extended Spring Training.

Gabriel Ynoa, RHP

Current Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas 51s

Ynoa’s profile is exactly the type that you’d expect to get hammered in Vegas. He’s a strike-thrower with a 55 fastball and nothing else you would expect to miss bats or even barrels. And through 12 starts in 2016, Ynoa has again only struck out 12 percent of the batters he’s faced, and has seen his walk rate creep up . Yet somehow he has bobbed and weaved his way to a sub-3.00 ERA. Despite his success so far, Ynoa’s profile hasn’t really changed. He offers a four-pitch mix, with an average change and two below-average breakers. We are well-past the point of dreaming on a major league slider or curve here, but with a lower arm slot and a low-impact delivery, it’s possible you could develop a Robles-like reliever. For now, Ynoa will continue to start as long as the smoke and mirrors act holds up. And hey, it’s beats getting shelled, however you do it.

Marcos Molina, RHP

Current Assignment: Minor League Disabled List

Molina is still a few months away from throwing off a mound after Tommy John surgery late last summer.

Five more who are interesting … now

As Toby Hyde noted when we chatted with him in Episode 5 of For All You Kids Out There, one of the notable surprises for the Mets affiliates in the first half has been … the lack of surprises. But here’s five more names of note for the second half of the minor league season:

Andrew Church, RHP

Current Assignment: High-A St. Lucie Mets

The Mets second round pick in 2013 was a bit of a head-scratcher at the time. No one had really seen him pitch much in high school.  Coming into 2016, Church had thrown just 132 innings across three season, after losing parts of the last two seasons to injuries. And all of the three were spent in short-season ball. He popped back up a few weeks ago in Columbia, sitting 90-95 and throwing a slider. After two dominant starts in the South Atlantic League, he was bumped up to St. Lucie. He is still very much an unknown quantity, but in a pitching-depleted system, a healthy Church certainly qualifies as interesting.

Chris Flexen, RHP

Current Assignment: High-A St. Lucie Mets

Flexen spent much of 2015 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, but once he got back on the field he showed plus fastball velocity and a developing curve. He could have easily made the interesting list before the season and had an argument for third-best pitching prospect in the system (not that it was a high bar). His 2016 has been uneven, but he has put together a string of strong starts recently and is still only 21. His long-term future is likely in the bullpen, given the fringy command and lack of a third pitch, but a strong second half in the Florida State League could get him top 10 consideration for 2017.

Kevin McGowan, RHP

Current Assignment: Double-A Binghamton Mets

When I saw Kevin McGowan in Brooklyn in 2013, he was a tall drink of water that could touch 95 and flashed a decent curve. After 190 innings of mediocre work as a starter in St. Lucie across 2014-15, the Mets converted McGowan to relief this season and he’s proceeded to strike out 27 percent of the batters he has faced, and walked just 3 percent. That’ll play. McGowan is still 92-95, but now uses a slider as his primary secondary. If he can keep missing bats in the upper minors, he has a real shot to be the first Franklin Pierce alum to play in the majors.

David Thompson, 3B

Current Assignment: Single-A Columbia Fireflies

I generally give guys coming straight from a long college season into the Penn League a bit of a mulligan. It’s their first time playing deep into the summer, and they are learning the specific rigors of pro baseball on the fly. That said, Thompson looked as bad as any first-or-second-day Mets college draftee I have seen on Coney Island. The bat looked slow, and he was overmatched by short-season offspeed stuff.

After a full offseason and a spring in the complex, Thompson has come out blazing in Columbia, hitting .296/.352/.487. The over-the-fence power that he showed in college hasn’t shown up in the pros yet, but 20 doubles in 50 games is a good sign. Thompson is a first baseman long term given his range and shoulder issues, and this may very well be just another example of a polished college guy whacking the Sally league, but it beats writing about another future reliever.

Ivan Wilson, OF 

Current Assignment: Single-A Columbia Fireflies

Wilson has long been a personal concern. When I saw him in Kingsport in 2014 he showed off a toolset that was the best in the system. Easy plus run and arm, you could throw a 70 on the raw if you were so inclined, and he looked like he’d be a good centerfielder down the line. If he could even hit a little, that would be a slam dunk top five prospect in the system, any system.

Just one small problem: he couldn’t hit.

I sat on him for three games that summer and he hit three absolute bombs, but he struggled mightily to pick up spin even at that level, striking out even 47 percent of the time in the Appalachian League. 2015 was marred by injuries, and I was a little surprised to see him pop up in Columbia this year. He’s gotten the K-rate down to 33 percent (which isn’t good, but better than I expected) and the tools are still in there. There still may not even be a Double-A player in here, but if you want a guy to dream on, Wilson’s given you a glimmer.

***

So with Matz’s graduation, and the lack of breakout guys, the Mets system is a bit down from where it was even in April. But four top 100 picks in this year’s draft should help replenish the thin system, and make the Brooklyn Cyclones a must-follow over the rest of the summer.

Photo Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports