Binghamton Rumble Ponies (Double-A)

Pitcher: Marcos Molina

Once upon a time, Marcos Molina was an interesting arm with a chance to start at the major league level. Major emphasis on once upon a time though, as his stuff has yet to come back two years removed from Tommy John surgery. 2018 has been rough for Molina, who’s gotten shelled to the tune of a 7.01 ERA in 13 starts for Binghamton. The reports on Molina weren’t exactly glowing in 2017, but no one was expecting this level of performance from the right-hander. The underlying metrics aren’t any better either, as he’s running a pedestrian K/9 along with a horrific BB/9 of 5.19.

So, why are we talking about Molina you ask? Well, he’s currently occupying a highly valuable 40-man spot for some odd reason. He’s not the only questionable player on the 40-man, far from it, but he’s yet to pitch in the majors and doesn’t project as a starter at this point in his career. One might assume the Mets want to see if Molina’s stuff plays up in the pen, but they continue to run him out as a starter in Bingo. If he’s going to carve out a role in Queens, it’ll have to be in the bullpen. He should be the next roster casualty, but the Mets will probably DFA P.J Conlon again before they move on from Molina.

Brooklyn Cyclones (Short-Season-A)

Pitcher: Bryce Montes de Oca

Another week of the Prospect Watch, another rant on the Mets minor league assignments. While we can debate whether Montes de Oca should be given a chance to start, there’s no debating where he should’ve started his professional career. Draft analysts praised the Mets for stocking up on fast moving relievers on Day Two, yet MDO and Ryley Gilliam were both sent to Brooklyn after signing. I, for one, don’t understand the upside in selecting a reliever in the fifth round if the organization doesn’t plan on moving him fast.

While the Mets are selecting relievers on Day Two of the draft, other teams are finding interesting position players with tools that maybe underperformed in school or small school relievers who have a chance to start. That’s how organizations end up with good minor league depth and combat injury issues on the big league roster. If you’re going to invest the high pick on a relief pitcher, at least make it a priority to move that arm as quickly as possible through the minors. Please don’t send them to Brooklyn for the entirety of their first professional season.

Kingsport Mets (Rookie League)

Hitter: Shervyen Newton

Newton was a forgotten signing who took a modest bonus ($50,000) but it looks like the Mets may have done really well here. A 6’4” shortstop, Newton’s off to a blistering start in Kingsport during his age-19 season, slashing .417/.476/.694 with a home run. The early season reports have been incredibly encouraging, suggesting Newton might be one of the top prospects in the system despite his level.

Newton’s a switch-hitter with some bat speed and pop that projects to stay in the infield. Now, whether that ultimately becomes third base or short, I don’t know for certain, but Newton’s got a strong arm and should continue to stay at short until he plays himself off the position. He needs to add to the frame, but there’s plenty of time for that and I expect him to fill out. Newton’s tearing the cover off the ball in Kingsport and should be in Brooklyn right now, but the Metssssssss.

Gulf Coast Mets (Rookie League)

Hitter: Jarred Kelenic

Kelenic had his introductory press conference at Citi Field on Wednesday, and now there are rumors that he’ll be sent to Kingsport after three games with the GCL Mets. That’d be a welcome move, but Kelenic’s a soon-to-be 19-year-old advanced prep bat who deserves to be challenged at Brooklyn. He’s not as raw as younger prep hitters who are the same level currently and should spend the rest of the season in Brooklyn so he can start next season in Columbia.

Of course, it’s entirely possible (and probable) that Kelenic doesn’t reach Brooklyn until the end of the season and is sent back there to begin the 2019 season. It’s not a perfect comparison, but Mickey Moniak was the number on pick in 2016 and played his entire draft year in the GCL. The Phillies then got aggressive (rightfully so) and sent Moniak to the Sally, where he really struggled in his age-19 season. Both were the most advanced prep bats in their respective classes, but Kelenic’s going to end up spending his entire draft season in rookie ball. The Mets are frustratingly slow with assignments for prospects; a good argument can be made that everyone on our midseason top 10 list should be one level higher, including Peter Alonso and Jeff McNeil, who should already be in the majors by now. The Metsssssssss.

Hitter: Ronny Mauricio

Mauricio’s two years younger than Newton, but the scouting report is incredibly similar. Another switch-hitter with the arm for shortstop, Mauricio got $2.1 million as a July 2 signing, which broke Amed Rosario’s record of $1.75 million. He’s 6’3” and projectable, although he may have to move off shortstop due to a lack of foot speed. The Mets got aggressive for once and assigned him to the GCL, and it seems to have paid off. He’s currently slashing .351/.317/.514, which isn’t a typo (sac flies, baby!) When a teenager, especially one who’s just 17 years old, is holding his own in pro ball, in a new country, that’s incredibly encouraging. He’s likely going to spend the entire season in the GCL, which is hard to argue with considering his age, but I suppose it’s possible he gets a late-season cup of coffee with Kingsport. We’ll keep a close eye on Mauricio, as should you because he’s a potential up the middle defender with offensive potential.

Pitcher: Simeon Woods-Richardson

Not only have I been scouting future Mets (ha!) in the Cape Cod League this summer, I’ve also been talking daily with a bunch of scouts on a wide range of topics. One of those topics happened to be Woods-Richardson, who popped late this spring and certainly wasn’t the overdraft you might’ve been led to believe. A tall, projectable righty who can run his fastball up into the mid-90s and has shown some feel for a breaking ball is a pretty good prospect. Of course, Woods-Richardson needs to clean up his delivery – especially his landing leg – and his velocity has been inconsistent. Still, he’s incredibly young and will have a ton of time to develop. I think the Mets would be thrilled if they got a No.4 starter here within five years, but there’s admittedly a ton of risk here and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up in the bullpen, either.

Photo credit: Brad Penner – USA Today Sports

Las Vegas 51s (Triple-A)

Pitcher: P.J Conlon

If you pulled up P.J Conlon’s player page and looked solely at his career minor league stats: 2.85 ERA, 0.67 HR/9, 1.98 BB/9, you wouldn’t be wrong in thinking the Mets have another solid pitching prospect on their hands. What those stats won’t tell you though is that Conlon’s fastball averages just 86 mph; and that folks is why you don’t scout the stat line.

Conlon’s a former 13th round pick that’s surpassed all expectations thus far but honestly, no one’s quite sure how. Standing only 5’11” with a fastball that barely touches 90 mph, it’s honestly perplexing that we’ve even arrived at this point. In need of a spot starter in Cincinnati, the Mets added Conlon to the 40-man roster and he made his major league debut, allowing three runs in 3.2 innings.

Conlon pairs a good changeup with a funky delivery that generates some much-needed deception. The change sits in the mid to high 70s and, while it is his best offering, it just doesn’t generate enough whiffs for Conlon to cut it as a starter in the big leagues. One might think that if Conlon isn’t succeeding via the strikeout, he must be elite at inducing groundballs. That’s not his secret to success either though, as his career groundball rate stands at a middle of the pack 43.08%.

So how exactly has Conlon been able to achieve this level of success? It’s a great question that no one seems able to answer, not even the Mets. Although he’s not going to be a starter in the majors, Conlon has good career splits against lefties and could potentially fill a LOOGY role for some organization.

Hitter: Phillip Evans

I’m honestly not sure if Evans still has prospect eligibility (spoiler alert: he does!) but have you seen the 51s roster recently? It’s rougher than you can even imagine and the reason why Tim Tebow is talked about as a legitimate call-up candidate.

Evans was with the big league club just this Tuesday, but Jose Bautista took his roster spot and poor Phil has to wait for another chance. A former 15th round pick in the 2011 draft, the versatile Evans will turn 26 later this year, his seventh as a pro. He actually made the Opening Day roster but was sent down rather quickly in favor of an almost but not really healed Michael Conforto.

I saw Evans in Vegas last month and while I’m not his biggest fan, I’d much rather see him on the Mets bench than Bautista. Evans won a batting title in 2016 and is showing some improved power this season with nine home runs in 118 at-bats, but he’s yet to get an extended look in the big leagues. It seemed like he was finally going to get his chance when the Mets finally DL’d Yoenis Cespedes but nope, Jose Bautista!

I’m skeptical of Evans’ potential as a major leaguer long-term, but I think he’s deserving of a chance to show why he belongs. A utility man who can play passable infield defense, be an emergency catcher and has some pop is an intriguing player that can provide some value off the bench, especially in the National League. If only the team that employs Jose Reyes could use someone like that…

Binghamton Rumble Ponies (Double-A)

Pitcher: Marcos Molina

Where do I even begin on Marcos Molina? After flashing a plus fastball/slider combo in the lower depths of the system, Molina missed all of 2016 due to Tommy John surgery. Which is fine, considering Tommy John isn’t the death sentence for pitchers that it once was and Molina was still young.

The problem is we’re now two years removed from the operation and Molina’s stuff is still nowhere to be found. After a mediocre 2017 with Binghamton, the Mets sent Molina back again to repeat the level, hopefully with better results. It was a reasonable idea in theory, but the results have been disastrous thus far and that’s a big problem considering Molina’s occupying a 40-man spot.

With Anthony Swarzak seemingly close to a return and in need of a reinstatement to the 40-man, there’s a high possibility that it’s Molina whose roster spot is in jeopardy. That’s because Molina’s been downright awful this season with both Binghamton and Las Vegas. In 36.2 innings for the Rumble Ponies, Molina’s got a 6.14 ERA to go along with a putrid 6.38 K/9 and 3.93 BB/9. He was even worse in Vegas, holding a 9.35 ERA and a 5.19 BB/9 in just eight and two-thirds innings. The possibility of converting Molina to the bullpen is becoming increasingly likely with each passing day, especially considering the Mets are running out of time with him. Having never been known for possessing good command, a move to a relief role could suit both parties well, and it’s likely the only scenario in which Molina keeps his roster spot.

Hitter: Jhoan Urena

It’s hard to believe, but this is Urena’s seventh season as a pro and we’re still waiting for the breakout season above Low-A. I’ve seen Urena a bunch this season and have come away from each look wanting to like him a lot more than I really do. Urena has the look of a future big leaguer with some deceptive athleticism to boot, but he’s yet to put it all together and I’m increasingly worried he never will.

For starters, Urena is awful in right field, where he’s started the majority of games this season for the Rumble Ponies. He’s also played third base and while he’s better there, I have him as a 35, which is just an emergency starter. That means Urena is destined for a future in left or at first, positions where he’s really going to have to hit to justify his position, and I’m just not confident that he’s going to be able to do that.

I should mention that Urena’s battled hamate bone injuries in the past, a pesky injury known to sap power from hitters. Urena has just three home runs this season, which isn’t a surprise considering his swing doesn’t have much loft, but game power is an important part of the profile at first base or left field. That being said, the swing is max effort in all counts and Urena strikes out too much for a guy with this little power.

I’m down on Urena’s chances as a future major league contributor, but I’m still holding out some hope that he can add some more power to his game. It’s been seven seasons though and we’ve yet to see it, so it’s hard to be too hopeful here.

Port St. Lucie Mets (High-A)

Pitcher: Ryder Ryan

Acquired from Cleveland in last year’s Jay Bruce trade, Ryan is off to a really nice start with Port St. Lucie. In his first 16 appearances this season, Ryan’s got a 1.77 ERA and a 23:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 20.1 innings.

I know what you’re thinking: a reliever acquired at the 2017 deadline must be a fastball/slider guy, and well, you’re correct. Ryan sits in the mid-90s with his fastball and complements it with his slider, but not much else. He’s currently running a strikeout rate of 30% to go along with a 6.5% walk rate, which bodes well for a potential future as a high leverage reliever. Ryan is 23 and in A ball but he pitched all of one inning in college, so there aren’t really age concerns here.

What’s really interesting is that Ryan’s numbers were pretty average with the Cleveland organization, but since the trade he’s seemingly found a new gear. The Mets have a proven track record of developing this profile, so Ryan couldn’t have found a better landing spot than New York. If Ryan keeps this up, he’s going to be looking at a promotion to Double-A Binghamton by year’s end. He’s certainly a name to keep an eye on as the season progresses.

Columbia Fireflies (A)

Hitter: Wuilmer Becerra

Becerra came over as an additional piece in the R.A Dickey trade that brought Noah Syndergaard and Travis d’Arnaud to New York back in 2012. He’s flashed potential when healthy but injuries have really slowed his development down, and that’s why we’re talking optimistically about a 23-year-old in A ball.

Becerra’s noteworthy skill is his hit tool, which looks like a 60 at peak. He’s struggled with shoulder injuries, including but not limited to a torn labrum, that have robbed him of his power and ability to throw.

Becerra was held back in extended spring training and has only played five games with the Fireflies, so we don’t have any new information on him yet. If he stays healthy though, this is the sort of player that could break out and turn heads by the end of the year. We’ll need to see a power spike to improve the future outlook, but if he stays healthy, don’t be surprised if Becerra ends the season in Binghamton.

Photo credit: David Kohl – USA Today Sports

Joining Justin Dunn in the St. Lucie rotation to open the season—and hopefully in Binghamton before the year is over—is Marcos Molina (#15). Like Dunn, the 22-year-old pitcher comes with questions as to his ability to remain as a starter, yet those doubts are even louder with Molina. While athletic with plus stuff, Molina’s mechanics are far from ideal as he makes his return from Tommy John surgery. After sitting in the upper 80s with his fastball on the minor league backfields at the end of spring training, Molina has found his way back onto the disabled list to open the season. The complete lack of involvement of his lower body in his delivery puts an exorbitant amount of stress on his arm, which is unlikely to be sustainable for a starting pitcher. While his mechanics are not ideal for a relief pitcher—any kind of pitcher, really—shorter stints out of the pen would put less stress on Molina’s arm and allow him to sit closer to his peak velocity. While Molina is older now than this comp was then, Roberto Osuna’s 2015 promotion from a single-A starting pitcher who had undergone Tommy John surgery to a late-inning role in a major league bullpen is not out of the question for Molina. While that is obviously not what the Mets are planning to do with him at the moment, moving Molina to the bullpen sooner rather than later might make the most sense for all parties. With his stuff, Molina could legitimately pitch out of a major league bullpen before the 2017 season is finished.

Best known as the “non-elite prospect” the Mets acquired in the R.A. Dickey trade in 2012, the now-22-year-old Wuilmer Becerra (#10) has made the Baseball Prospectus Mets Top Ten two seasons running. Becerra, who underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in July, was protected from the Rule 5 Draft this winter despite not yet being ready to play the field to open the 2017 season. As the projected everyday designated hitter for the St. Lucie Mets for the first stretch of the season, Becerra will look to combine his above-average raw power with the plus hitting ability he has flashed in his recent seasons. While dealing with the shoulder injury during the first half of last season, Becerra hit only a single home run for St. Lucie in 2016, which isn’t going to work for a major league right fielder, his usual defensive home. However, if Becerra is able to put the whole package together, the tools are loud enough for him to project as an everyday right fielder in the majors. But even beyond the injury concerns, it’s a package with plenty of risk at the moment. A healthy and productive season that ends in the upper minors, highlighted by an increase in in-game power, could propel Becerra further up the Mets prospect lists and potentially onto global prospect lists next winter.

The Mets’ 2015 eighth-round pick out of Stetson University, Patrick Mazeika is a bat-first prospect whose ultimate future value is going to be determined by his defensive home. Mazeika, who has walked almost as many times as he’s struck out so far in his pro career—and gets an additional OBP boost from his Brandon Guyer-esque attraction to pitched baseballs—also offers a potential major-league-quality hit tool. If he is able to stick behind the plate, that is a good offensive starting point for a major league catcher. If he is forced to move off the position, which is a legitimate possibility given his current below-average glove and 6’3″ frame, he veers dangerously close to non-prospect status. His relative lack of power and line drive approach would not play well at first base—a position he has played some in his career—and the bat isn’t much more attractive in a corner outfield spot; he may not have the defensive chops for that anyway. His most realistic path to the major leagues is as a bat-first catcher whose high OBP makes up for his mediocre home run power and lackluster defense behind the plate.

2016 second-round pick Peter Alonso (#19), however, does not lack for power. Alonso has the best raw pop in the entire Mets minor league system. A right-handed hitting and fielding first baseman, he represents a bit of a rare breed as a prospect. Rarely are right-handed hitting first basemen considered to be prospects worthy of a high draft pick and the $909,200 signing bonus that Alonso received. Given that profile, his prospect status and baseball future relies solely on his bat and his ability to reach into his 70 raw power in games. After jumping over the South Atlantic League to open his first full professional season, Alonso will come to the Florida State League with the expectation that his bat will carry him into the upper minors and eventually to the major leagues. If he is able to adjust to better pitching than he saw in the SEC and shorten his swing from what he has shown to this past, he has a chance to develop into a middle-of-the-order bat sooner rather than later.

After selecting RHP Andrew Church (#21) with the 48th pick in the 2013 draft, the early returns for the Mets were less than stellar. At the end of the 2015 season, the now-21-year-old Church had yet to get out of short-season ball, and only struck out 75 batters in 132 professional innings.  2016 was a different story. Church emerged from extended spring training on May 24 to strike out nine batters in five innings for Columbia in his 2016 debut. For the season, he started 15 games, posting a 2.92 ERA and an improved, yet still pedestrian, 20.2% K-rate. Church, whose fastball touches as high as the mid 90s and slider flashes plus, will look to build on his 2016 campaign with an aggressive Double-A assignment. As Jarrett Seidler wrote recently, this season will be Church’s last before he is eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, so his performance—or lack thereof—in 2017 should give us a lot more clarity on his major league future.

Yet another 2016 draft pick making the jump from the Brooklyn Cyclones to the St. Lucie Mets in 2017 is fifth-round pick Colby Woodmansee. Woodmansee—who, given his tall frame, is likely to eventually move off of shortstop—skips over the South Atlantic League despite a mediocre 2016 season in his time at both the collegiate and professional levels. Following a strong sophomore year at Arizona State, Woodmansee was penciled in as a first or second round draft pick. However, a lack of improvement in his junior season allowed him to slip to the Mets in the fifth round, where they are hoping he can show again why he was considered by some to be a first round talent just a few months before the draft…St. Lucie’s lineup will also feature the return of 23-year-old John Mora. Mora, who got some burn in major league spring training, has limited power and average-at-best tools elsewhere. If he doesn’t end this season in Binghamton or Vegas, his chances of making the major leagues down the road can be considered minimal at best…the bullpen will feature Tyler Bashlor, who received a well-over-slot $550,000 signing bonus after being selected in the 11th round in 2013. Bashlor boasts a fastball that can touch 98 mph and a developing breaking ball. He has a chance to rise quickly to the majors if he is able to stay healthy and keep his walks under control.

Photo Credit: Reinhold Matay – USA Today Sports

Thomas Szapucki, LHP

As a live-armed prep pick in the mid-single digit rounds, Szapucki’s 2016 wasn’t totally out of nowhere. But the jump from low-90s and a promising curve to mid-90s with sharp action and a wipeout curve is pretty huge, and the numbers Szapucki put up in both Kingsport and Brooklyn were absolutely staggering. A back injury ended his 2016 slightly prematurely, and while we don’t believe it to be a serious injury, back problems and pitching prospects don’t always go well together. If Szapucki continues to progress his stuff, and if he continues to run strikeout rates into the mid-teens per nine, our ranking of him as the 69th-best prospect in baseball will no longer seem nice by this time next year. He’ll probably open in Low-A Columbia as part of the traveling Tim Tebow Circus, but High-A and even Double-A are within reach for later in the season. — Jarrett Seidler

Andres Gimenez, SS

I got a question in a BP chat recently asking me to compare Kevin Maitan and Andres Gimenez. Sammy in Connecticut seemed a bit skeptical that there was really that big a gap between them as prospects. I’m fairly confident that Maitan’s surfeit of offensive tools is enough to make him a Top 101 prospect before he ever takes the field for a professional game, stateside or otherwise. I get the premise though. Gimenez was very highly rated in the 2015 July 2 class, and we have reports on him from actual games, granted ones from the Dominican Summer League. It’s all data of course, but the best data can be found behind home plate, which is why I will be trucking to whatever short-season affiliate he ends up at this year to find out if we were in fact a year too late on him. I expect to find a polished shortstop and an advanced hitter for an 18-year-old, like if someone used the upgrade meme on Luis Carpio. But I suspect Gimenez has the capacity to surprise me as well, which is why I keep gassing up the car for East Tennessee every year. And speaking of Carpio … — Jeffrey Paternostro

Luis Carpio, SS/2B

We ranked Luis Carpio as the third-best prospect in the Mets system heading into the 2016 season. We ranked him ahead of Dom Smith, Desmond Lindsay, and Robert Gsellman. (I say we, but I was driving that bandwagon, and my byline is on the list.) Then Carpio tore his labrum in the Spring. See, it’s not just pitchers! It was an aggressive ranking at the time for a kid that spent most of the 2015 season as a 17-year-old, but it’s rare to find that level of defensive polish and advanced hitting ability at any age in the short-season leagues. The injury was to his right shoulder, and his arm was already maybe better suited to the right side of the infield, but I’m antsy to check in on the still-only-19-year-old. He made quite the first impression. — Jeffrey Paternostro

Tyler Bashlor, RHP

The Mets turned some heads in 2013, when they handed a $550,000 signing bonus to their 11th-round pick, junior college reliever Tyler Bashlor. After signing with the club, he pitched in 13 games for Kingsport that year, but then didn’t throw another professional pitch until 2016, losing two full seasons after undergoing Tommy John surgery. In a 2016 season that was spent primarily pitching out of the bullpen for the Columbia Fireflies, Bashlor showed why the Mets believed in him enough to give him more than half of a million dollars three years prior, posting a 12.16 K/9 and 2.50 ERA at the level. His fastball, which sits in the mid-90s and touched as high as 98 mph in 2016, is a legitimate swing-and-miss pitch that should carry him to Queens. The bigger questions for Bashlor are his secondary pitches and control. His command and control should figure to take strides forward in 2017 as he is another year removed from surgery. His slurve, which currently sits in the low-80s, is a pitch that could be improved upon (attn: Dan Warthen). If Bashlor is able to progress enough with command and the breaking ball, he will find himself on the fast track to pitching out of the Mets bullpen before too long. He figures to open this season in the bullpen for either St. Lucie or Binghamton. If all goes well, he won’t finish the season with the same affiliate that he began the year with. — Skyler Kanfer

Marcos Molina, RHP

The continuing saga of Zack Wheeler reminds us on a near-daily basis that Tommy John surgery is still anything but routine. Yet Marcos Molina has had, well, the “routine” recovery, popping back up about a year out from surgery. He used the Arizona Fall League as something of a rehab stint, throwing short outings and flashing the premium fastball/slider combination that made him one of the system’s best pitching prospects two years ago. With violent mechanics, a TJS in his background, and durability questions even before that, Molina still might be a reliever in the end, but 2017 represents his shot to get back on the fast track as a prospect. He could open as high as the Double-A Binghamton Rumble Ponies, and a pitcher on the 40 in the high-minors is of course only a phone call away from The Show. — Jarrett Seidler

Andrew Church, RHP

The 2013 second-round pick spent years in the wilderness bouncing around the lowest levels of the system as an oft-injured project, largely falling off the prospectdom map. In a tale that’s been around as long as there have been pitching prospects, he showed up in 2016 a new man, coming out of extended spring in May to shine for Low-A Columbia, mixing in a fill-in stint in High-A Port St. Lucie and a late-August emergency appearance for hometown Triple-A Las Vegas. Once again touching the mid-90s with his fastball and featuring a promising slider, Church could start back at High-A or get a bump to Double-A, where I think I have a pretty good chance to see him in Binghamton’s late-May/early-June visit to Trenton. A full year of effectiveness should get him in strong consideration for both a spot on both the 40-man roster and high up on next year’s prospect lists. — Jarrett Seidler

Desmond Lindsay, OF

Beyond the trio of Mets prospects who made the BP 101 list, there is not a prospect in the Mets farm system with more upside than Desmond Lindsay. Lindsay, the organization’s top draft pick in 2015, is a centerfielder with all the raw tools that any scout would fawn over. In 2016, Lindsay’s performance represented his skillset, as he posted a .297/.418/.450 line with the Brooklyn Cyclones, including a .344 True Average*, 14.9 percent walk rate, and 19.4 percent strikeout rate. Unfortunately, since his senior year of high school, Lindsay has had considerable hamstring issues. They kept his sidelined for most of his draft year, which caused him to fall to the Mets in the second round, and they have continued to hamper him since signing with the club. Recurring injuries for a teenager could very well be the sign of, well, more hamstring injuries, or it could be something that a player as young as Lindsay, just 20, could outgrow. In the near-future, Lindsay could very easily be a guy who is being talked about as the next uber Mets prospect—or, in other words, the Amed Rosario of two years from now—or he could be a guy who is being talked about as the new Reese Havens. His performance and health in 2017, where he most likely will open in Columbia, will tell the story. — Skyler Kanfer

( * – Editor’s Note: For those of you curious, those numbers indicate that he hit about as well compared to his league as Joey Votto did compared to MLB.) 

Tomas Nido, C

The ride hasn’t always been smooth for the 2012 eighth-round pick, who prior to 2016 had never posted a minor league OPS higher than .660. However, over those first few years of his minor league career, his defensive game advanced from raw at best to his calling card. Due to his overall strong catching ability and above-average arm, he was able to open the 2016 in St. Lucie at age-22. Last season, his bat finally started catching up to his glove. In a full season in the pitching-friendly Florida State League, Nido posted a .320/.357/.459 line with seven homers and a .294 True Average in 370 PA. He more than halved his strikeout rate, going from a 25.7 percent clip in Savannah to a very respectable 11.4 percent in 2016. If he is able to combine his developed defensive skills with his newfound hitting ability, he has a chance to be a starting catcher. Nido, who was praised when he was drafted for having plus raw power, still has plenty of room to turn that power into game power. Doing that, in addition to potentially increasing upon his 5.1 percent walk rate from 2016, could make him a viable long-term answer for the Mets behind the dish. I look forward to watching Nido play in person in Binghamton starting this April. — Skyler Kanfer

Luis Guillorme, SS

If you are reading this website, you don’t need to be told that Amed Rosario or Justin Dunn or Desmond Lindsay are worth the price of admission. The implication in all these entries is that we want to see something new. There are guys here with 2016 breakout seasons that we didn’t get enough reports on. There are injured pitchers on their way back who have flashed major league stuff in the recent past. You want a sleeper or you want to know if the breakout guy is real. Prospects can change a lot from year-to-year, but I don’t expect I will be updating my priors much on Luis Guillorme. If anything, I worry a bit about his bat against Double-A velocity. But goddamn am I happy to have him within driving distance again. Rosario has the louder defensive tools and is a plus shortstop in his own right, but there is no one I would rather watch at the 6 than Guillorme. His defense has an ineffable quality to it. Immanuel Kant would suggest that’s his glove is far too functional in scope to have true aesthetic beauty, but I part ways with the German on that. Kant more famously wrote that one should “live your life as though your every act were to become a universal law.” Guillorme’s actions in the field set the bar too high for every other shortstop I’m afraid, but I am happy to see him synthesize utility and art in the infield as often as possible this year. — Jeffrey Paternostro

Tim Tebow, QB/OF?

Tim Tebow isn’t a real baseball prospect. He’s probably not going to make the majors, and if he does it’s likely to be in a cameo that he won’t have earned based on his own merits. But he is an elite athlete—a player so uniquely talented at football that he was a first-round quarterback despite a known and near-complete inability to make pro throws—and his transition to baseball will be nothing if not fascinating. Can he compete even at the lowest levels? He’s currently expected to open at Low-A Columbia, which is an appropriate level for what we suspect is his baseball ability, but a level where he’ll be about a decade older than the real prospects. Both Jeffrey and I are preparing for the circus for when Columbia comes to Lakewood early in the season. (We totally didn’t throw Tebow in down here because we were dividing a list of ten between three people and had one slot left over, no sir.) — Jarrett Seidler

Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

1. SS Amed Rosario
2. RHP Robert Gsellman
3. LHP Thomas Szapucki
4. 1B Dominic Smith
5. CF Desmond Lindsay
6. RHP Justin Dunn
7. SS Andres Gimenez
8. OF Brandon Nimmo
9. SS Gavin Cecchini
10. RF Wuilmer Becerra

And now, prospects 11 through 20!

11. Luis Carpio, SS/2B, Age 18 (GCL/Brooklyn)

JP: Life comes at you fast. A year ago, Carpio was a polished, 17-year-old Venezuelan middle infielder with a potential plus hit tool, not all that different from Andres Gimenez, minus a million bucks in the bank or so.

JS: And now he’s a shortstop-in-name-only … probably? Do we have any idea if he can still throw or not?

JP: He spent a few weeks DHing at two short-season levels, getting the Spring Training he never had. So no. He was always gonna be a little stretched at shortstop, the arm was more solid-average than plus. Outlook cloudy, I guess. We’ll know more this Spring, and a heck of a lot more next September. I’ve comped him to Ruben Tejada in the past, which tends to annoy Mets fans, but Tejada was a very useful player his first couple seasons before he had major injuries.

JP: …

JP: Oh, right.

12. Tomas Nido, C, Age 22 (St. Lucie)

JS: So the Mets have always liked Nido’s catching abilities and his bat came alive in 2016. I don’t think any of us actually got any Florida State League looks this year, did we? Internal reports at BP from the rest of the prospect team were pretty good. Catchers are freakin’ weird.

JP: I did not get my usual fix of Lola’s Seafood, Vine and Barley, and divorce lawyer highway billboards unfortunately.

SK: Catchers always seem to emerge late and have unpredictable career paths and Nido may be yet another example of that. Kevin Plawecki was once a catcher with a potential 60 hit tool and Matt Wieters was supposed to be the next Johnny Bench, while two years ago Willson Contreras was left unprotected for the Rule 5 Draft and in the span of one year Carson Kelly went from posting a .263 OBP in the Florida State League to appearing in major league games.  

JP: Hey, I only put a 55 on Plawecki’s hit … uh, and thought he would be a fringy defender. Catchers are freakin’ weird. Nido has a case to be higher, but I’d like to see him do it for another year before I bump him into the top ten after two years of vaguely anonymous looks at him.

JS: And now Plawecki’s the new really awesome defensive catcher/future Tampa Bay Ray that can’t hit a lick. Go figure.

SK: When Nido was drafted in the eighth round in 2012 and signed for $250,000 the scouting report on him indicated plus raw power but a raw defensive toolset that put into question whether or not he would be able to stick behind the plate. For the first few years of his minor league career, his defensive tools became his calling card that allowed him to reach St. Lucie despite not hitting at all until this year. If he is able to combine his developed defensive skills with his newfound hitting ability and the raw power that made him interesting in the draft four years ago, he has chance to be a major league starting catcher and a good one at that. The fact that the bat only showed up for the first time as a pro in 2016 keeps him lower down on the list, but catchers are weird.

13. Gabriel Ynoa, RHP, Age 23 (Las Vegas/New York)

JP: My #brand is looking good for 2017 as Ynoa is in line to be the Mets eighth starter, which means he might be the Mets fifth starter by May 1st. He got the Warthen bump in the majors, sitting 94 in the majors with both his fastballs and the slider tightened up and looked more Warthen-like at times. But Ynoa’s long arm action and low slot give hitters a long look at the ball, and major league hitters sure hit a lot of line drives off him, and may limit how much magic the Mets coaching staff can work here. There’s a major league arm in here, but it’s off the likely role 40, middle relief or fifth starter, variety.

14. Ali Sanchez, C, Age 19 (Brooklyn)

JP: Don’t scout the stat line, kids.

JS: I have no sense if Ali Sanchez can hit. I also increasingly have no sense if we should care whether a catcher hits.

JP: So you were paying attention during Harry Pavlidis and Jonathan Judge’s Saberseminar presentation too? I don’t know if we are any good at evaluating the important non-hitting aspects from our view behind the backstop either. I do think Sanchez will hit. I like the swing. I like the way he uses center and right-center, and he sure looks the part behind the plate, throwing arm excepted. We do have a better idea about how little that matters now compared to the rest of the defensive profile now.

JS: What we do know is that Ali Sanchez gets amazing, incredible marks on the soft factors. There’s the famous quote from our dearly-departed Triple-A skipper about how he’s the best framer in the system. He’s still a few levels from having minor-league framing numbers, but he’s supposed to be really great, and most of the dudes who have supposed to have been really great have been. And again, catchers are freaking weird. Austin Hedges slugged .597 in Triple-A this year! Austin Freaking Hedges!!!

JP: If you are a disappointing prospect looking to get some new helium, go to El Paso, young man.

JS: It’s still .597 slugging for a guy who once looked like he couldn’t hit water if he fell off a boat.

SK: While Sanchez doesn’t project as much of a power hitter, his defensive ability could allow to climb up the minor league ranks until he starts to hit more, like Tomas Nido. And Sanchez has the advantage of being an even better defender than Nido and anyone else in the organization. If he can find a way to hit like Yadier Molina did, he can become, well, a slightly lesser version of Yadier Molina.

JP: And if I can find a way to drink like Jason Parks, I can become, well, a slightly lesser version of Jason Parks.

JS: Congratulations on your 2021 World Series ring, Jeffrey.

JP: Sanchez could be much higher on this list a year from now. He could also be a third catcher for the Binghamton Rumble Ponies six years from now. Catchers are freakin’ weird.

SK: Remember Francisco Peña?

JP: Congratulations on your 2015 World Series ring, Francisco Peña.

15. Marcos Molina, RHP, Age 21 (DNP)

JS: It’s a hell of an arm. He’s had basically two lost years, I don’t think any of the three of us thinks he can start, and he’s ahead of two actual major-league contributors. It’s a hell of arm.

JP: The grainy YouTube videos coming out of fall ball suggest that his wonky mechanics haven’t changed significantly, but the stuff has come back well a year out from his surgery. This is a placeholder ranking that probably is wrong in one direction or the other (aren’t they all), because either the stuff comes all the way back and he stays healthy–and he’s a top 10 prospect in the system–or he’s a reliever who’s going to start 2017 in the Florida State League.

SK: If you think Luis Severino is all upper body, then you should look at Marcos Molina’s delivery.

16. Josh Smoker, LHP, Age 27, (Las Vegas/New York)

JS: Why in Seaver’s good name is Smoker still eligible for this list? He should’ve been up in August or September 2015, let alone waiting a full year. He’s a good MLB lefty reliever now—probably more a setup guy than a straight LOOGY—and he’ll never be anything more because this is what he is. But that is pretty cool for a dude signed off an independent league tryout.

JP: What he is: A fastball/split lefty with a 96 mph fastball that was somehow cast as a LOOGy throwing a below-average slider a lot because Terry Collins. I do worry if gopheritis will continue to haunt him a bit, the fastball lacks wiggle, but he’s providing major league value now.

SK: A lefty that can throw in the mid-high 90s. Along with Addison Reed and Hansel Robles, Smoker remains probably one of only three locks to make the Mets opening day bullpen.

17. T.J. Rivera, IF, Age 27, (Las Vegas/New York)

JP: Pass.

SK: He’s from the Bronx.

JS: It might be a 60 hit tool. And the rest of the profile might not be enough to carry it. But 60 hit guys who can sort of stand at many positions do have roles as good utility players. He could be a good utility player. By the meritocracy version of the game, he probably does deserve a chance to figure out if there’s more there.

JP: He also had a top-five swinging strike rate on the Mets in 2016 and that checks out with my eye test, where he looked overmatched by better velocity and better sliders. He’s below-average defensively even at second. He could hit an empty .250 and be on a Jet Blue to McCarran by 5/1. But 3’s play in the majors too.  

SK: TJ Rivera has absolutely no secondary tools. His defense, arm, power, and run tools are not major-league caliber and he can’t walk either. But the hit tool is so good that he’s going to stick as a major league player for a while.

18. Luis Guillorme, SS, Age 21 (St. Lucie)

JP: We’re at the part of the list where we are stretching for guys with major league futures. If you want to have a major league future as the 18th best prospect in a system, it helps to do one thing really well. It especially helps if that one thing is “play shortstop.” Guillorme fits the bill. This is the converse of the Rivera profile, if you are a 60 shortstop glove (and Guillorme might be a 70), it’s usually enough.

JS: Legitimately the best defensive infielder in the organization. Some feel for hitting. No power. Can we just cut and paste one of your old Wilfredo Tovar reports?

SK: If this was the 1970s, he’d be penciled in as a major league starting shortstop for the next decade.

JP: He’d be the best shortstop in the league in the 1870s, even had the mustache for a while. I’ll always root for him, insomuch as I “root” for prospects anymore. He’s an 80 makeup, baseball rat that gets absolutely every inch out of his limited physical tools. I guess that means I should be higher on Rivera, but aesthetics matter here too. And good shortstop defense is high art.

JS: He’s really cool and he’s got a shot because it doesn’t take much for this profile to bump into major-league regulardom.

19. Peter Alonso, 1B, Age 21 (Brooklyn)

JP: I get it. I really do. But this org has been putting overqualified college dudes in Brooklyn for as long as there has been a Brooklyn, and they always hit a ton.

JS: The competition Peter Alonso faced in the New York-Penn League was arguably worse than the competition he faced in the SEC. The SEC is good college baseball. The Penn League has some dudes throwing 83 that can’t locate. You would expect a high-round SEC pick to destroy the Penn League, and he did. It doesn’t mean much.

SK: Raw power is fun. Did you see that 113 mph exit velocity in the NY Penn League?

JP: I’ll just quote what I wrote about him earlier this Summer:

“Alonso’s stance is wide open and he stands well off the plate. He uses a medium leg lift to close, but he starts the whole process early and lets the leg hang a bit before getting it down. The timing here is inconsistent and often leaves his upper half trying to catch up. The swing itself has some length to the ball, the bat speed doesn’t jump out at you, and Alonso struggles with balls below his waist and spin generally. It’s a long-and-strong power profile, and those tend to struggle the first time they see higher-quality stuff. Even short-season arms have occasionally been able to exploit the holes (though they have many more times given him balls up in the zone he can both catch up to and get extended on).“

Ask me again in Double-A. First base profiles are tough.

SK: I like first basemen with plus power profiles over first basemen who are reliant on any other tool.

20. Merandy Gonzalez, RHP, Age 20 (Brooklyn)

JP: Merandy Gonzalez is the kind of polished Latin pitcher the Mets like to put in the Brooklyn rotation. He has a little more stuff than the median Cyclones arm though. His fastball regularly hits 95. He can elevate it to get Ks and command it down to both sides of the plate. The curve flashes and he can spot or bury it. It’s inconsistent and he’ll slow his arm and guide it in when it’s coming out of his hand in the 70s. He doesn’t have an ideal starter’s frame and the change is crude. There’s a major league arm in here, albeit one best-suited to the pen. Not bad for No. 20.

SK: What round of the draft would Merandy Gonzalez be projected to go in as a 21-year-old next year?

JP: Is he just Dakota Hudson minus four inches? For all you kids out there, there’s a reason I don’t do amateur stuff.

JS: I mean, we’re listing him a spot after a mid-second round pick whose stock hasn’t changed much and signed for around slot, so mid-second round sounds just about right. And that’s not far off from Dakota Hudson, really.

Photo Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The Top 10

1. Steven Matz, LHP

Current Assignment: New York Mets

2016 to date: 60.1 IP, 2.39 ERA, 25% K, 5.3% BB, 54 H, 4 HR

Well this has gone well.

Before our national list came out, I argued hard for Matz over Julio Urias; I also think there was an case for Matz as the best pitching prospect in baseball over even Giolito. Being able to do it in the majors matters, and Matz had already shown flashes of that. He has taken another step forward this season–and my No. 2 starter projection on him might even end up low–although the command needs to get more consistent and he still has his own durability questions to answer. 30 starts and 180 major league innings this year will go a long way towards silencing the last concerns about the Mets southpaw.

Graduated (and pretty pretty good)

2. Amed Rosario, SS

Current Assignment: Advanced-A St. Lucie

2016 to date: 262 PA, .307/.359/.445, 7.6% BB, 13% K

Rosario is repeating the Florida State League, but is still one of the youngest players in the Sunshine State. On the preseason list I noted that his defensive tools were more advanced than his offensive ones, but the bat has begun to catch up in a big way. He’ll be in Binghamton in the second half, where I will get to see him live for the first time since 2014, but we already have big internal reports on him, and I had a scout sing his praises to me recently as well. The mothership starts our midseason top 50 list discussion soon, and Rosario will be in the conversation for the top half.

Stock Up

3. Luis Carpio, SS/2B

Current Assignment: Minor League Disabled List

Carpio was the most aggressive ranking on this list. I definitely stand by it, and I think he’s still a top-10 prospect in the system even after shoulder surgery that will keep him out for the whole year. The issue is with his throwing arm which may accelerate a move to the right side of the infield, but we won’t know that (or anything else) until he gets back on the field on the field in 2017.

Stock Down

4. Gavin Cecchini, SS 

Current Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas

2016 to date: 177 PA, .314/.375/.409, 9% BB, 12.4% K

All Cecchini has done for the past season-and-a-half is hit. Well, he’s hit enough to be a valuable up-the-middle bat in the majors at least. He tinkered with a large leg kick in A-ball, and while that did give him a little more pop into the gaps, it left him vulnerable to offspeed. When I saw him the next year in Binghamton, he was using a simple toe tap to close from a slightly open stance and a flatter overall swing plane. This has improved his contact ability, but sapped whatever gap power he might have had. Cecchini is mostly a singles hitter nowadays, so I do wonder if major league arms will challenge him more once the book gets out, cutting into his on-base numbers despite his strong strike zone control.

The defense was always supposed to be the sure thing for Cecchini. He was drafted as an advanced shortstop glove, and although no pundits promised Gold Gloves, he was seen as about a sure thing to stick at short as you will find coming out of high school. But as a pro, Cecchini has struggled with the responsibilities on the left side of the infield. The arm is short for the position, and can be scattershot at times, especially when he has to reach back for more. The range is a step short as well, and he struggles with his actions at faster game speeds. He’s played every one of his professional games at shortstop, but it is hard to see him being more than a once-a-week guy there in the majors. At second base, there probably isn’t enough offense to be a starter unless he hits .280. But there is a major league role to be found when you can hit a bit and play up-the-middle.

Stock Holding

5. Dominic Smith, 1B

Current Assignment: Double-A Binghamton

2016 to date: 241 PA, .273/.324/.386, 7.1% BB, 15.8% K

Of course you should never scout the stat line.

But sometimes there are reasons for the stat line.

Stock Down

6. Brandon Nimmo, OF 

Current Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas

2016 to date: 222 PA, .325/.403/.521, 11.3% BB, 16.7% K

Nimmo’s hot May and June has piqued Mets fans interest again, but there doesn’t appear to be a ton of real change here (unless you buy into the newest offseason swing/stance tweak). In fact, his profile really hasn’t changed in five years. Nimmo’s the Casey Stengel quip come to life; in five years he’s actualized his chance to be 23. That might sound pessimistic, but while he hasn’t figured out how to hit lefties, or added as much power as projected, Nimmo has several skills that will serve him well in the majors. He won’t kill you in centerfield, and he can get on-base and hit for average power against righties. He isn’t Jose Fernandez, and he isn’t left-handed Hunter Pence, a common comp during his first couple pro seasons, but Nimmo is potentially a useful long-side platoon bat.

I do think the risk here does get understated at times though. His overly passive approach might fall apart against major league pitching, but his first half in Vegas is a step in the right direction. Like Cecchini, Nimmo may end up a bit of a disappointment as a high first-round pick, but both should have significant major league careers.

Stock Holding

7. Desmond Lindsay, OF

Current Assignment: Extended Spring Training

I had hoped the Mets might push Lindsay to Columbia this year. It would have been an extremely aggressive assignment given the background (learning a new position, missed most of his senior season), but he impressed me in a brief cameo for Brooklyn at the end of last summer. A minor leg injury and a couple hit-by-pitches in minor league camp put the kibosh on that though. Lindsay will now head back to Coney Island, surrounded by a much, much better crop of prospects than he was last year.

Stock Holding

8. Wuilmer Becerra, OF

Current Assignment: High-A St. Lucie

2016 to date: 167 PA, .338/.370/.409, 4.2% BB, 15.6% K

Man, heck if I know.

For most of his pro career, Becerra looked like he was built right to factory specs for “right field profile:” A tall Venezuelan with a projectable body, he checked off every box: plus speed, arm, and pop. He was raw at the plate, but had a plan and a swing by the time he got to Savannah and you could easily see him growing into an everyday bat in a corner. Then he went to St. Lucie and hit like Tony Gwynn for two months.

Now it does go back further than that. The Savannah staff made some changes to his stance in 2015, and in the second half there he hit .291/.348/.355. Savannah’s home park was brutally tough on power, but that makes just 22 extra-base hits in his last 94 games and only one home run. If you want to hand wave some of the power outage, he has dealt with shoulder and back issues in 2016. I also got a positive scout quote on him recently, but there is a reason we don’t make Tony Gwynn comps.

Stock the heck if I know

9. Robert Gsellman, RHP

Current Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas

2016 to date: 69.1 IP, 17% K, 5.9% BB, 67 H, 2 HR

Gsellman added a slider this spring in major league camp, and that, along with a small bump in velocity, boosted his K-rate from 12.7% in 2015 to 17% so far in this year’s campaign. That’s still nothing to write home about, but the slider would flash plus in my April look, and the organization has done a very good job developing this type of arm recently. The future projection here hasn’t moved all that much, but he’s another step closer to the majors after his recent promotion to Vegas–although his first start didn’t go well … welcome to the PCL!–and a better bet to reach that OFP now.

Stock Up

10. Ali Sanchez, C

Current Assignment: Extended Spring Training

No real surprise here. Sanchez is a long, long way away, between being a catcher and having just come stateside to the complex last year. He could start at either Kingsport or Brooklyn, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Mets push him to the New York-Penn League to get some experience catching their new crop of arms.

Stock Holding

The five who were just interesting

Matt Reynolds, IF

Current Assignment: New York Mets

Reynolds was listed here in the winter due to the likelihood he would be able to help out the 2016 team. And he’s bounced back and forth between Vegas and Flushing this year, functioning as the 25th man and extra infield glove. He’s never hit all that much in Vegas, considering that it is Vegas, so he has fallen behind guys like Travis Taijeron, Ty Kelly, and TJ Rivera in #MetsTwitter’s ever-changing #FREE________ hierarchy. But he is younger and a better defender than those three, and is likely to have a major league job until the Mets trade for Juan Uribe in six weeks.

Raphael Ramirez, OF

Current Assignment: Extended Spring Training

Ramirez will be flanking Desmond Lindsay in Brooklyn with either Arnaldo Berrios or the next of our interesting five.

Ricardo Cespedes, OF

Current Assignment: Extended Spring Training

I think Cespedes heads to Kingsport, where it will be easier to get him centerfield reps (although I don’t see him sticking up the middle long-term). The Mets could get aggressive though and assign him to Brooklyn and Lindsay to Savannah. A lot of these decisions down to how guys look in extended Spring Training.

Gabriel Ynoa, RHP

Current Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas 51s

Ynoa’s profile is exactly the type that you’d expect to get hammered in Vegas. He’s a strike-thrower with a 55 fastball and nothing else you would expect to miss bats or even barrels. And through 12 starts in 2016, Ynoa has again only struck out 12 percent of the batters he’s faced, and has seen his walk rate creep up . Yet somehow he has bobbed and weaved his way to a sub-3.00 ERA. Despite his success so far, Ynoa’s profile hasn’t really changed. He offers a four-pitch mix, with an average change and two below-average breakers. We are well-past the point of dreaming on a major league slider or curve here, but with a lower arm slot and a low-impact delivery, it’s possible you could develop a Robles-like reliever. For now, Ynoa will continue to start as long as the smoke and mirrors act holds up. And hey, it’s beats getting shelled, however you do it.

Marcos Molina, RHP

Current Assignment: Minor League Disabled List

Molina is still a few months away from throwing off a mound after Tommy John surgery late last summer.

Five more who are interesting … now

As Toby Hyde noted when we chatted with him in Episode 5 of For All You Kids Out There, one of the notable surprises for the Mets affiliates in the first half has been … the lack of surprises. But here’s five more names of note for the second half of the minor league season:

Andrew Church, RHP

Current Assignment: High-A St. Lucie Mets

The Mets second round pick in 2013 was a bit of a head-scratcher at the time. No one had really seen him pitch much in high school.  Coming into 2016, Church had thrown just 132 innings across three season, after losing parts of the last two seasons to injuries. And all of the three were spent in short-season ball. He popped back up a few weeks ago in Columbia, sitting 90-95 and throwing a slider. After two dominant starts in the South Atlantic League, he was bumped up to St. Lucie. He is still very much an unknown quantity, but in a pitching-depleted system, a healthy Church certainly qualifies as interesting.

Chris Flexen, RHP

Current Assignment: High-A St. Lucie Mets

Flexen spent much of 2015 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, but once he got back on the field he showed plus fastball velocity and a developing curve. He could have easily made the interesting list before the season and had an argument for third-best pitching prospect in the system (not that it was a high bar). His 2016 has been uneven, but he has put together a string of strong starts recently and is still only 21. His long-term future is likely in the bullpen, given the fringy command and lack of a third pitch, but a strong second half in the Florida State League could get him top 10 consideration for 2017.

Kevin McGowan, RHP

Current Assignment: Double-A Binghamton Mets

When I saw Kevin McGowan in Brooklyn in 2013, he was a tall drink of water that could touch 95 and flashed a decent curve. After 190 innings of mediocre work as a starter in St. Lucie across 2014-15, the Mets converted McGowan to relief this season and he’s proceeded to strike out 27 percent of the batters he has faced, and walked just 3 percent. That’ll play. McGowan is still 92-95, but now uses a slider as his primary secondary. If he can keep missing bats in the upper minors, he has a real shot to be the first Franklin Pierce alum to play in the majors.

David Thompson, 3B

Current Assignment: Single-A Columbia Fireflies

I generally give guys coming straight from a long college season into the Penn League a bit of a mulligan. It’s their first time playing deep into the summer, and they are learning the specific rigors of pro baseball on the fly. That said, Thompson looked as bad as any first-or-second-day Mets college draftee I have seen on Coney Island. The bat looked slow, and he was overmatched by short-season offspeed stuff.

After a full offseason and a spring in the complex, Thompson has come out blazing in Columbia, hitting .296/.352/.487. The over-the-fence power that he showed in college hasn’t shown up in the pros yet, but 20 doubles in 50 games is a good sign. Thompson is a first baseman long term given his range and shoulder issues, and this may very well be just another example of a polished college guy whacking the Sally league, but it beats writing about another future reliever.

Ivan Wilson, OF 

Current Assignment: Single-A Columbia Fireflies

Wilson has long been a personal concern. When I saw him in Kingsport in 2014 he showed off a toolset that was the best in the system. Easy plus run and arm, you could throw a 70 on the raw if you were so inclined, and he looked like he’d be a good centerfielder down the line. If he could even hit a little, that would be a slam dunk top five prospect in the system, any system.

Just one small problem: he couldn’t hit.

I sat on him for three games that summer and he hit three absolute bombs, but he struggled mightily to pick up spin even at that level, striking out even 47 percent of the time in the Appalachian League. 2015 was marred by injuries, and I was a little surprised to see him pop up in Columbia this year. He’s gotten the K-rate down to 33 percent (which isn’t good, but better than I expected) and the tools are still in there. There still may not even be a Double-A player in here, but if you want a guy to dream on, Wilson’s given you a glimmer.

***

So with Matz’s graduation, and the lack of breakout guys, the Mets system is a bit down from where it was even in April. But four top 100 picks in this year’s draft should help replenish the thin system, and make the Brooklyn Cyclones a must-follow over the rest of the summer.

Photo Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports