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	<title>Mets &#187; Neil Walker</title>
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		<title>What You Need To Know: August 14</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/14/what-you-need-to-know-august-14/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 14 Aug 2017 10:05:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Anna Salvatore]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dom Smith]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jacob deGrom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin McGowan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Harvey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Neil Walker]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5341</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Monday Takeaway Remember last week, when the Mets traded away a veteran hitter, called up their top prospect, and suffered through a Rafael Montero start? This week was pretty much the same, give or take a few names. For one thing, the Mets traded Neil Walker to the Brewers. They also called up first baseman [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3>Monday Takeaway</h3>
<p>Remember last week, when the Mets traded away a veteran hitter, called up their top prospect, and suffered through a Rafael Montero start? This week was pretty much the same, give or take a few names. For one thing, the Mets traded Neil Walker to the Brewers. They also called up first baseman Dominic Smith on Friday, where he bounced his first major league hit up the middle for an single. The youth movement is underway. Last but not least, Montero took the mound for an inexplicable 23rd time this season to start against the Rangers. He gave up five hits, three walks, and four runs in three miserable frames of a 5-1 Rangers victory.</p>
<p>Apart from Dom’s call-up, there were two bright spots. The first was Sunday’s 6-2 win, where Michael Conforto and Curtis Granderson each contributed a two-run homer. Terry Collins marveled that Conforto has the chance to hit 30 home runs when he “wasn’t even in the lineup in April,” adding that it “speaks volumes.” It certainly speaks volumes about Collins’s decision-making.</p>
<p>The second highlight was Amed Rosario’s first major league home run, a tiebreaking shot in the ninth inning of Friday’s game. The 21-year-old rookie later said that “Even though I’ve had a bad couple of days, this really helps my confidence.”</p>
<p><a href="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2017/08/ezgif.com-resize.gif"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-5342" src="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2017/08/ezgif.com-resize.gif" alt="ezgif.com-resize" width="302" height="170" /></a></p>
<h3>Neil Walker Traded to Milwaukee</h3>
<p>Infielder Neil Walker was shipped to the Brewers on Saturday for a player to be named later.</p>
<p>Walker was almost traded to the Yankees on July 31, but the deal failed for so-called medical reasons. Mets officials allege that the Yankees backed out of the deal so they could pursue Oakland righty Sonny Gray. “I was healthy then, I am healthy now,” Walker protested on Saturday.</p>
<p>Regardless, the Mets are cutting salary after trading Jay Bruce, Addison Reed, Lucas Duda, and now Walker, which is what really matters. The Brewers are also plugging up their second base hole, from which they’ve received a meager .264/.312/.442 slashline and 10 home runs.</p>
<p>The Mets may end up trading three veteran hitters in three weeks if they decide to trade Curtis Granderson. He’s already cleared waivers, and his numbers are fantastic since May 15 (.284/.409/.567). His bat and “good clubhouse guy” reputation should be attractive to contenders seeking an outfielder. They’ll never trade with the Nationals, but Bryce Harper injured his knee on Saturday…</p>
<h3>Dom Smith Called Up</h3>
<p>Last week, shortstop phenom Amed Rosario was called up from Triple-A Las Vegas. Before Friday’s game in Philadelphia, the Mets finally promoted his teammate, Dominic Smith. The 22-year-old left-handed first baseman was mashing .330/.386/.519 with 16 HR in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.</p>
<p>Smith was the 11th overall pick in the 2013 MLB Draft, and he was praised for an all-fields hitting approach. He’s also considered an excellent defensive player despite his 6’0, 226 lb frame.</p>
<p><a href="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2017/08/Spray-chart.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-5345" src="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2017/08/Spray-chart.jpg" alt="Spray chart" width="650" height="500" /></a></p>
<p>Evaluators disagree over whether his bat will play at first, though. Jarrett Seidler explores this in a recent prospect report: “One needn’t go further than how cheaply Tampa Bay was able to acquire Smith’s predecessor Duda to see how teams are valuing good but not elite superstar bats at the first base position these days, and it’s hard to not count that against Smith’s value as a prospect.”</p>
<p>Smith joined the Mets Friday night against the Phillies, where his first major league hit was a single up the middle.</p>
<h3>Injury Update</h3>
<p>On Saturday, Matt Harvey took a big step towards returning to the Mets. He pitched a rehab start with the Brooklyn Cyclones, where he allowed a walk, a hit, and a run in one inning of work. His velocity was reportedly around 93 mph. “Obviously a little rusty, but I think that was kind of expected from me going in… The arm feels great, which is what the goal was to come up here,” Harvey told reporters. Pitching coach Dan Warthen expects that he will pitch a side session in three days.</p>
<p>Jacob deGrom left Thursday’s start with a bruised triceps, but he’s expected to make his next start against the Yankees. The line-drive injury ended a dominant nine-strikeout effort against the Phillies. Since June 6, deGrom has gone 9-2 with a 1.42 ERA and 85 strikeouts.</p>
<h3>Quick Hits</h3>
<p>According to the <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=2&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;ved=0ahUKEwizmbSF0dXVAhVJ-lQKHdshCjkQFghuMAE&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2017%2F08%2F11%2Fsports%2Fbaseball%2Fny-mets-dominic-smith.html&amp;usg=AFQjCNG-kf7U1Tflbckn2L6tj3IrvwKNwg" target="_blank">New York Times</a>, Dominic Smith was promoted when his Triple-A manager told him to come to the field to discuss Smith’s “malfunctioning sleep apnea breathing machine.” He later admitted to seeing through the ruse.</p>
<p>Tonight, the Mets begin their annual Subway Series against the Yankees. Michael Conforto entered last year’s showdown with a .711 OPS, but this year he’ll roll into the Bronx with a .968 OPS. In a statement dripping with enthusiasm, Terry Collins described the series as “games we have got to go play.”</p>
<p>The Mets have also called up RHP Kevin McGowan, a reliever with a 4.06 ERA in Triple-A. He is a New Hampshire native whom the Mets drafted in the 13th round of the 2013 draft.</p>
<p><em>Photo credit: Eric Hartline &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Game recap August 12: A trade and, I guess, a game</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/13/game-recap-august-12-a-trade-and-i-guess-a-game/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 13 Aug 2017 09:55:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Noah Grand]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Game Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asdrubal Cabrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Curtis Granderson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dom Smith]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Neil Walker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wilmer Flores]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5338</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[“We still have inventory,” Sandy Alderson said after Saturday’s 3-1 loss to the Phillies. I’m not sure any reporters really wanted to talk to Alderson about another lousy game in a disappointing year. No, reporters were talking to Alderson about the Mets trading away Neil Walker to Milwaukee for a player to be named later. [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>“We still have inventory,” Sandy Alderson said after Saturday’s 3-1 loss to the Phillies. I’m not sure any reporters really wanted to talk to Alderson about another lousy game in a disappointing year. No, reporters were talking to Alderson about the Mets trading away Neil Walker to Milwaukee for a player to be named later. The individual wins and losses don’t matter as much as the team’s broad plan for the future.</p>
<p>The Mets could easily make more deals. Asdrubal Cabrera isn’t hitting as well this year, but he’s still on pace to be more than a two win player. Curtis Granderson’s on base percentage has recovered enough after his awful start, so a few contenders may look at him as a fourth outfielder. There are enough potential contenders in the AL Wild Card and NL Central that a team may be willing to give up a little something to get one of these Mets. We don’t know who the Brewers gave up to get Walker, but the second baseman has been less valuable than either Cabrera or Granderson so far this season. I know, that’s surprising. It’s mainly an indictment of Walker’s health.</p>
<p>Once teams clear “inventory,” they tend to play their younger players. It’s important to emphasize the word tend in that sentence, because we’re talking about the Mets under Terry Collins. First baseman Dominic Smith has started two games for the Mets, and he’s been pulled both times. On Saturday, Smith came up as the tying run with one out in the top of the ninth inning. Lefty sidearmer Hoby Milner was in for the Phillies. Smith’s best tool is his ability to hit for contact. Why not give him a chance against a lefty specialist? After all, don’t the Mets want to eventually rely on Smith every day? Collins clearly wasn’t interested in this long term planning and he instead went to Wilmer Flores. Philly countered with right-hander Luis Garcia for two easy outs to end the game.</p>
<p>I cant help but compare Collins’ managing to the Phillies game plan. Rookie callup Rhys Hoskins is batting cleanup. It doesn’t matter that the Sacramento State alum was never tabbed as a top prospect or that he’s still hitless. Philadelphia manager Pete Mackanin is acting like Hoskins is the best prospect of the ones who have been called up so far, so he’s going to keep getting his at-bats, even though they are playing him out of position. It may not be the best strategy to win games, but that’s not the point. The Phillies know they aren’t making the playoffs. They accept that losing and getting a better draft slot is in their long-term interest. They also know the more they play Hoskins now, the more they can figure out how much he belongs in their long term plans.</p>
<p>What is the Mets&#8217; overall plan? Clearly the team isn’t building for the short term. They have made four trades and Alderson is still openly talking about how he has inventory left. None of the Mets’ trades have been particularly forward thinking. The team didn’t get exciting prospects back for Lucas Duda, Jay Bruce, or Addison Reed. They did, however, get a short-term reduction in payroll. Collins manages for short-term wins, even if it impedes player development.</p>
<p>When teams are bad, one of the biggest things that fans want to see is a coherent plan for how to get better. Plans don’t always work. We know that. We also know plans are more likely to work when everyone, from ownership on down, is on the same page. The Mets act like they don’t know whether they are coming or going. It’s hard not to wonder about ownership. Have the Wilpons given Alderson and Collins instructions about the direction of the team? Does Collins think he has to squeeze every win out of a lost season to keep his job? Would the Wilpons actually reward this kind of short-term strategy?</p>
<p>Sadly, anyone who has followed this team long enough knows the answer to that question. I’m probably more excited about the Walker deal than any other Mets trade because the club officially announced they were sending some cash as part of the deal. Maybe there’s a bit of long-term planning and hope here after all? After a day like yesterday, I’m all for squinting as much as possible to see a glass that could be half full when I think about baseball.</p>
<p><em>Photo credit: Derik Hamilton &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Game recap August 11: Amed Rosario saves the day</title>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 12 Aug 2017 09:55:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Lukas Vlahos]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Game Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[A.J. Ramos]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Amed Rosario]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asdrubal Cabrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dom Smith]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hansel Robles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jerry Blevins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Smoker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Conforto]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Neil Walker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Paul Sewald]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rene Rivera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Seth Lugo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wilmer Flores]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yoenis Cespedes]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Primer The Mets are bad. The Phillies are worse. At this time of the year, that leads to some pretty boring games, and the matchup of Seth Lugo and Nick Pivetta didn’t really do much to change that perception. On the other hand, there are plenty of prospects in the major leagues for mediocre teams at [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3>Primer</h3>
<p>The Mets are bad. The Phillies are worse. At this time of the year, that leads to some pretty boring games, and the matchup of Seth Lugo and Nick Pivetta didn’t really do much to change that perception.</p>
<p>On the other hand, there are plenty of prospects in the major leagues for mediocre teams at this time of year. That’s certainly the case in this one, with Rhys Hoskins, Nick Williams, and Jorge Alfaro in the lineup for the Phillies, and Amed Rosario and Dom Smith, making his major league debut, in the lineup for the Mets. Hope springs eternal for fans of bad teams in August and September, and there’s something wonderful about that part of baseball. Not as wonderful as contending for the World Series of course, but something that makes these games enjoyable at times.</p>
<h3>Game Recap</h3>
<p>Seth Lugo did not have his best stuff Friday night, and the Phillies jumped on him early. Cesar Hernandez lead off the bottom of the first with a single and Odubel Herrera doubled two batters later to put runners on second and third with one out. Rhys Hoskins, already batting in the cleanup spot one day after his debut (hope you’re taking notes, Terry: it’s okay to bat your young guys high in the lineup) walked to load the bases. The next three Phillies each drove in a run, as Nick Williams singled, Maikel Franco grounded into a force out, and Tommy Joseph singled, giving the Phillies a 3-0 lead.</p>
<p>Michael Conforto chipped away at that Philly lead in the top of the second, launching his 25th home run to the deepest part of the ballpark to leadoff the inning. For Conforto, it was his ninth home run hit to the left of center field, second most in the majors behind only Joey Votto. Votto is not only the best first baseman of the past two decades but one of the best hitters of all time, ranking 5th in tAV among all hitters (behind Mike Trout, Mickey Mantle, Barry Bonds, and Willie Mays), so that’s certainly some impressive company for Conforto. Now seems a good time to remind you that the Mets wanted Conforto to start the year in Las Vegas.</p>
<p>The Met comeback continued in the third. Rosario led off with a single and moved to second on a sacrifice bunt, and Neil Walker walked to put runners on first and second with two out for Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes has been struggling, but if there’s any place for a Met hitter to get right these days, it’s definitely Citizens Bank Park. Following that trend, Cespedes absolutely destroyed a fastball up and away for a three-run home run, giving the Mets a 4-3 lead. It was Cespedes’ 150th career home run, making him the seventh Cuban-born player to reach that milestone.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, Lugo was still struggling. Nick Williams singled to lead off the bottom of the third. Two batters later, Tommy Joseph bashed a double off the left-center field wall to re-tie the game at four. Lugo would allow an additional single and walk to load the bases, but escaped the inning without allowing any further damage. Through the first three innings, the struggling right hander allowed eight hits, three walks, and four runs.</p>
<p>Dom Smith got his first major league hit in the fourth, hitting a weak ground ball that found his way into center field for a single. He was promptly erased on a double play off the bat of Rene Rivera. In the bottom half of the inning, Lugo bounced back with first 1-2-3 inning of the night.</p>
<p>Rosario got things started again in the fifth inning, leading off with a single and moving to second on a sacrifice bunt. Rosario would score on a well-hit RBI single to left field from Walker, who would in turn move to third on a wild pitch and a throwing error. Cespedes followed that with another opposite field single, giving the Mets a 6-4 lead. Conforto would walk, to put runners on first and second with two outs, but Wilmer Flores flew out to end the threat.</p>
<p>Lugo seemed to settle into a bit of a groove, recording another 1-2-3 inning in the fifth. At 104 pitches, it seemed his night was done, but in a very Terry move, Lugo was left in to start the sixth. Aside from the poor tactics of this move in terms of helping the Mets win the game (which isn&#8217;t really relevant at this point of the season), pushing a struggling pitcher who’s already playing with a partially torn UCL is exceptionally stupid. Lugo induced a groundout from former Met Ty Kelly but then walked Cesar Hernandez, ending his outing.</p>
<p>Josh Smoker replaced Lugo, and immediately induced what should have been a ground ball to first. Instead, Smith had the ball go under his glove to put runners at second and third with one out. A ground out from Odubel Herrera would score one of those runs, which was charged to Lugo and ended his line. Lugo finished with 5.1 innings, allowing eight hits and four walks en route to five earned runs. He did strike out eight, a new career high, but the outing saw his ERA balloon to 4.85</p>
<p>With two outs and a runner on third, Terry proceeded to make another terrible move, electing to double switch Smith out of the game and insert Asdrubal Cabrera. I am one of bigger detractors of Smith, but taking your No. 2 prospect out of his debut in a meaningless September game is beyond stupid. The Mets are a bad team that should be looking to the future, not bending over backwards to play mediocre veteran infielders that are not part of the team’s future. Leave Smoker in to face an extra batter and keep your young players in the game.</p>
<p>Paul Sewald entered as the other half of that double switch and escaped the threat in the sixth with the Mets’ 6-5 lead still intact. He followed that up with a scoreless seventh, working around a single from Maikel Franco. The top of the eighth was highlighted by Wilmer Flores forgetting how many outs there were and being thrown out at third after starting his trot towards the dugout.</p>
<p>Jerry Blevins entered for the bottom of the eighth and got off to a good start by striking out Daniel Nava. Things unraveled a bit from there however. Cesar Hernandez hit a game tying solo home run, and Freddy Galvis and Odubel Herrera followed that with softly hit singles on well thrown curveballs to put runners on first and second with one out. Hansel Robles entered to douse the fire, but the Met lead was gone.</p>
<p>Not to worry though, this is still a game in Philadelphia, and those have gone exceedingly well for the Mets in recent years. Rosario lead off the ninth with his first major league home run, driving a fastball from Hector Neris out to right-center field in what was an extremely impressive bit of hitting. Cabrera and Walker followed with a double and a single respectively, but Cespedes and Conforto failed to drive in either as an insurance run.</p>
<p>With the Mets leading 7-6, A.J. Ramos entered looking for his second save in a Met uniform. The right hander had his stuff working last night, as he needed only nine pitches (eight strikes) to set the Phillies down in order. The win improves the Mets to 52-61, but drops them to eighth in the reverse standings with Atlanta’s loss to the Cardinals.</p>
<h3>Thoughts from the Game</h3>
<p>There have been a lot of hot takes on Dom Smith’s weight, and he had some interesting comments of his own. Smith has struggled with his weight on and off as a prospect, but he believes that being in a major league clubhouse with easy access to more nutritious food will help. It’s certainly a fair point, and raises the question of why major league teams don’t invest more in providing proper nutrition to their minor league players. Teams invest millions of dollars in their development pipelines, and by most analyses prospects are worth even more than that. It seems like a relatively easy calculation to deem helping those assets develop healthy eating habits a good investment, but the Mets (and no other team to my knowledge) has taken that step.</p>
<p>For Seth Lugo, this was another bump in what has been a very rough season. In his past four starts, Lugo has allowed five runs, three runs, five runs, and three runs, and after beating his FIP by a significant margin last season, he is now roughly in line with his mediocre mid-4’s FIP. Lugo might rock an excellent spin rate on his curveball, but he doesn’t strike many batters out and allows too much hard contact. At this point, it’s tough to count on Lugo for much next season.</p>
<h3>Other Met News</h3>
<p>Jerry Blevins was reportedly pulled off waivers after an unknown team made a claim. Given the value of a good left handed reliever to a contender at this part of the season, this is hardly surprising. At the same time, there’s an argument to be made that the Mets failed to capitalize on an opportunity to improve their team, both now and at the deadline. Blevins has been noticeably worse for a decent stretch, and relievers are nothing if not fickle. At the same time, the seller’s market was terrible this season, and the left-handed relief market is trash this offseason (as if the Mets would spend on relief pitching anyway). If the goal is to compete in 2018, holding on to Blevins is just as defensible as moving him.</p>
<p><em>Photo credit: Bill Streicher &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Game recap August 10: Back home in Philly</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/11/game-recap-august-10-back-home-in-philly/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Aug 2017 09:55:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sergei Burbank]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Game Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Amed Rosario]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brandon Nimmo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Curtis Granderson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dom Smith]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Erik Goeddel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jacob deGrom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Conforto]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Neil Walker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wilmer Flores]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yoenis Cespedes]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Mets 10, Phillies 0 Final In a matchup between two teams playing for the future, the lopsided outcome was not in doubt as the Mets put up three runs in the first and never looked back. In a season that has offered both Mets pitchers and fans unending pain, an otherwise dominant night was marred [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Mets 10, Phillies 0 Final</p>
<p>In a matchup between two teams playing for the future, the lopsided outcome was not in doubt as the Mets put up three runs in the first and never looked back.</p>
<p>In a season that has offered both Mets pitchers and fans unending pain, an otherwise dominant night was marred with the sight of Jacob deGrom &#8212; the last pitching stud standing &#8212; exiting the game in the seventh after a comebacker ricocheted off his pitching arm.</p>
<p>The less-than-Amazins tormented Phillies starter Vince Velasquez in the first. After yielding a two-out double to Yoenis Cespedes and walking Michael Conforto, Velasquez coughed up a three-run home run to Wilmer Flores, and the Mets spotted deGrom a 3-0 lead before he even threw a pitch. Velasquez would not return in the second, suffering from numbness in his pitching hand. Mark Leiter would replace him for five innings, surrendering only one run, a Neil Walker home run in the third.</p>
<p>deGrom couldn’t ask for a better setup for his 50th career road start. He was 9-0 against Philadelphia heading into tonight’s game, and wasted no time picking up where he left off, striking out the first two batters he faced. Cruising with a shutout in the seventh, on his 100th pitch, a comebacker off the bat of Nick Williams hit him right above the right elbow. Erik Goeddel came in in relief and stranded Phillies on the corners. deGrom escaped the scrape with little more than a triceps bruise, although given the Mets medical staff’s recent history misdiagnosing pitchers’ health, one could forgive Mets fans’ skepticism.)</p>
<p>Phillies outfield prospect Rhys Hoskins made his major league debut, going hitless with a walk.</p>
<p>deGrom wasn’t the only possible casualty of the night. With Las Vegas teammate Dominic Smith set to debut tomorrow, Amed Rosario got nailed in his hand with a high and tight fastball in the fourth, but stayed in the game and didn’t seem the worse for wear.</p>
<p>Conforto launched a three-run home run home run that dinged off the left field foul pole for a three run home run in the top of the seventh, and in the top of the ninth, Curtis Granderson followed a walk by pinch-hitting Brandon Nimmo with a two-run homer to right, putting the Mets up 9-0. The Mets then loaded the bases, but only eked out one more run to make the score 10-0, matching deGrom’s win-loss record against Philadelphia.</p>
<p>Mets fans can only hope that the linchpins of the 2018 campaign savor the victory and need no more than ice for their wounds.</p>
<p>Tonight, Dominic Smith Day, Seth Lugo (5-3, 4.55 ERA) takes on Nick Pivetta (4-7, 5.89 ERA) at 7:05 p.m.</p>
<p><em>Photo credit: Bill Streicher &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Phillies Series Preview August 10-13</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/10/phillies-series-preview-august-10-13/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Aug 2017 17:33:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Scott Orgera]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Series Previews]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Amed Rosario]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asdrubal Cabrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Flexen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dom Smith]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dominic Smith]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jacob deGrom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jay Bruce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Reyes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Juan Lagares]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Harvey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Neil Walker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Seth Lugo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steven Matz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Terry Collins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yoenis Cespedes]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5312</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[On the heels of yet another disappointing homestand where they were lucky to eke out one win, the Mets (50-61) head to Philadelphia to face a rebuilding club sporting the majors&#8217; worst record. After dropping the first five on their recent road trip, the Phillies (42-69) salvaged the final three games before returning to Citizens [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On the heels of yet another disappointing homestand where they were lucky to eke out one win, the Mets (50-61) head to Philadelphia to face a rebuilding club sporting the majors&#8217; worst record.</p>
<p>After dropping the first five on their recent road trip, the Phillies (42-69) salvaged the final three games before returning to Citizens Bank Park.</p>
<p>The Mets shipped free agent-to-be Jay Bruce to Cleveland on Wednesday night for minor league right-hander Ryder Ryan, with the Indians taking on the remaining $3.7 million of Bruce&#8217;s salary in the deal.</p>
<p>The slugger&#8217;s replacement on the 25-man roster for tonight&#8217;s series opener will most likely be center fielder Juan Lagares, who has made seven rehab appearances for Double-A Binghamton this month as he recovers from thumb surgery that landed him on the shelf back in June.</p>
<p>While fans are clamoring to see first baseman Dominic Smith at the big league level, they may have to wait a little longer.</p>
<h3>When and Where</h3>
<p><strong>Game 1:</strong> Thursday @ 7:05 p.m. EST (TV: SNY; RADIO: 710 WOR, ESPN Deportes)</p>
<p><strong>Game 2:</strong> Friday @ 7:05 p.m. EST (TV: SNY; RADIO: 710 WOR, ESPN Deportes)</p>
<p><strong>Game 3:</strong> Saturday @ 7:05 p.m. EST (TV: WPIX; RADIO: 710 WOR, ESPN Deportes)</p>
<p><strong>Game 4:</strong> Sunday @ 1:35 p.m. EST (TV: SNY; RADIO: 710 WOR, ESPN Deportes)</p>
<h3>Baseball Weather</h3>
<p><strong>Thursday:</strong> Partly cloudy with a low of 66F; Winds between 5-10 mph</p>
<p><strong>Friday:</strong> Scattered thunderstorms with a low of 69F; Winds between 5-10 mph; Chance of rain 80%</p>
<p><strong>Saturday:</strong> Possibility of a stray shower or thunderstorm early and a low of 68F; Winds between 5-10 mph</p>
<p><strong>Sunday:</strong> Intervals of clouds and sunshine and a high near 85F; Winds between 5-10 mph</p>
<h3>Probable Pitching Matchups</h3>
<p><strong>Thursday:</strong> RHP Jacob deGrom (12-5, 3.36 ERA, 3.02 DRA, .238 TAv, 4.1 WARP) vs. RHP Vince Velasquez (2-6, 4.82 ERA, 5.22 DRA, .290 TAv, 0.3 WARP)</p>
<p>A shining star amongst a constellation of negativity this season, deGrom has lost his last two outings after winning eight in a row dating back to early June. The 29-year-old needed 99 pitches to get through five innings against a powerhouse Dodgers lineup on Friday, charged with three runs on five hits and three walks in his shortest outing in almost two months.</p>
<p>After a promising 2016 in which he struck out 152 in 131 innings, Velasquez has regressed a bit. Winless since May 1, he missed seven weeks with a strained flexor in his right elbow but has pitched fairly well since returning (3.00 ERA over 4 starts) despite walking a career-high six in Colorado on Friday.</p>
<p><strong>Friday:</strong> RHP Seth Lugo (5-3, 4.55 ERA, 6.52 DRA, .288 TAv, -0.7 WARP) vs. RHP Nick Pivetta (4-7, 5.89 ERA, 5.39 DRA, .287 TAv, 0.2 WARP)</p>
<p>Lugo&#8217;s underwhelming sophomore campaign continued versus LA on Saturday, allowing three runs (including two homers) in 5.2 innings. He did not factor in the decision.</p>
<p>Pivetta&#8217;s first visit to the pitcher&#8217;s nightmare that is Coors Field did not end well. The 6&#8217;5&#8243; rookie was pulled after just 2.2 innings, allowing eight runs (six earned) on seven hits in the loss.</p>
<p><strong>Saturday:</strong> LHP Steven Matz (2-5, 5.77 ERA, 5.88 DRA, .300 TAv, -0.2 WARP) vs. RHP Aaron Nola (8-7, 3.12 ERA, 2.93 DRA, .229 TAv, 3.3 WARP)</p>
<p>Matz has struggled mightily in five starts since the All-Star break, with opponents hitting .433 alongside a whopping 1.164 OPS. The scuffling southpaw hasn&#8217;t won a game since June 28 and looks to turn the tide against a team that he has never faced.</p>
<p>Drafted seventh overall in 2014 and a cornerstone of Philadelphia&#8217;s future, Nola has been outstanding since mid-June &#8211; a span of nine starts in which the 24-year-old is 5-2 with a 1.76 ERA, including 70 strikeouts in 61.1 innings. His most recent outing was Sunday in Colorado, where he limited the Rockies to two runs on six hits across seven frames in a no-decision.</p>
<p><strong>Sunday:</strong> RHP Chris Flexen (1-1, 8.49 ERA, 8.31 DRA, .391 TAv, -0.4 WARP) vs. RHP Zach Eflin (1-3, 5.67 ERA, 6.34 DRA, .296 TAv, -0.5 WARP)</p>
<p>Plugging a hole in the club&#8217;s injury-depleted rotation, Flexen made his third big league start on Tuesday night against Texas, pitching just well enough to earn his first win (5.2 IP, 4 H, 3 R/ER, 3 BB, 4 SO, 2 HR, 1 HBP).</p>
<p>Eflin was impressive in Atlanta on Tuesday, earning the victory behind seven innings of two-run ball in his return to the rotation. The second-year hurler was demoted back in May after a pair of miserable outings.</p>
<h3>Who&#8217;s Hot?</h3>
<p>Phillies CF Odubel Herrera (5-for-8 with a double, two triples, a home run, 3 RBIs and 3 runs scored since Tuesday)</p>
<p>Phillies IF Freddy Galvis (.833 OPS in his last four games)</p>
<p>Phillies C Cameron Rupp (4-for-10 with 2 doubles and 2 RBIs)</p>
<h3>Who&#8217;s Not?</h3>
<p>Phillies 1B Tommy Joseph (3-for-29 with 1 XBH this month)</p>
<p>Mets SS Amed Rosario (2-for-16 with 7 strikeouts and no extra-base hits or walks)</p>
<p>Mets IF Asdrubal Cabrera (.063 OBP on homestand)</p>
<p>Mets LF Yoenis Cespedes (2-for-16 over his last five games)</p>
<p>Mets IF Neil Walker (.174 OPS in August)</p>
<p>Mets 3B/SS Jose Reyes (9-for-56 since July 20 (.161 AVG))</p>
<h3>When We Last Met</h3>
<p>The Mets took two out of three in Flushing on June 30-July 1, both one-run victories. deGrom struck out 12 over seven innings in the series opener, allowing just one run en route to his eighth win.</p>
<h3>It&#8217;s Literally a 10-Day DL</h3>
<p><strong>Phillies:</strong> No significant injury-related news</p>
<p><strong>Mets:</strong> RHP Matt Harvey (stress injury to right shoulder) threw batting practice on Tuesday and felt no ill effects the following day. A rehab assignment should not be far off, although the team has not yet committed to a date.</p>
<h3>Notable Quotables</h3>
<p>&#8220;You can&#8217;t ride one guy to get back in it. You need your lineup to produce and do what they are supposed to do, do what they are capable of doing. Right now, we got some guys that aren&#8217;t hitting.&#8221; &#8211; Mets manager Terry Collins on his team&#8217;s recent offensive woes</p>
<p><em>Photo credit: Brett Davis &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Game recap August 5: Blame Collins, not Sewald</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/06/game-recap-august-5-blame-collins-not-sewald/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 06 Aug 2017 09:55:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Noah Grand]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Game Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Curtis Granderson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Reyes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Conforto]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Neil Walker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Paul Sewald]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Travis d'Arnaud]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wilmer Flores]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5253</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When Michael Conforto strode to the plate in the second inning, the red-hot Los Angeles Dodgers had every reason to be worried. The Mets were already up 3-0 and had two runners on. Conforto had already homered in his first at-bat. Dodgers’ lefty Rich Hill couldn’t fool anyone with his straight 90 mph fastball. So [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When Michael Conforto strode to the plate in the second inning, the red-hot Los Angeles Dodgers had every reason to be worried. The Mets were already up 3-0 and had two runners on. Conforto had already homered in his first at-bat. Dodgers’ lefty Rich Hill couldn’t fool anyone with his straight 90 mph fastball. So he threw a curveball, and another, and another. When Hill needed another pitch, he changed his arm angle and threw a sweeping slider to get the strikeout.</p>
<p>Great teams aren’t just a collection of great individual talent. They have players and management who are able to make adjustments throughout the season. Los Angeles found a way to get the most out of castoffs like Justin Turner and Chris Taylor. Meanwhile, Terry Collins and the Mets seem to keep making the same mistakes over and over again. As the Mets suffered another seemingly inevitable 7-3 loss to LA, it seems like the only people in Flushing making adjustments are the fans.</p>
<p>It was a good start to the game at least. Conforto, Wilmer Flores, and Curtis Granderson all homered in the first. Seth Lugo built off the strong end of his last start in Seattle by retiring 14 of the first 15 batters he faced. He relied on his slider more than past outings, commanding the glove side of the strike zone. Everyone thinks about Lugo’s high spin rate curveball, so a tight slider is a surprise.</p>
<p>Lugo’s unexpected success gave Terry Collins a tough decision. Lugo had only given up one hit and one unintentional walk. He was at 70 pitches. However, Lugo has allowed 40.6 percent of runners to reach base his third time through the lineup this season. Do you tell Lugo congratulations on five great innings and pull him so he leaves on a positive note? Or do you push Lugo to pitch more and risk a sudden implosion?</p>
<p>Anyone who has spent any time watching the Mets the last few years can predict what happened, even if you didn’t watch Saturday’s game. Collins left Lugo in and he lost command of his slider almost immediately. Chris Taylor led off the sixth with a home run. Lugo managed to retire Corey Seager but Turner singled and Cody Bellinger homered to tie the game at three. Collins has never learned when he is pushing one of his starters too far. I would cut other managers some slack, but Collins made the exact same mistake with Steven Matz on Tuesday.</p>
<p>Collins trying to squeeze every last out from his starters creates more problems down the line. Lugo ran out of gas so quickly that Paul Sewald had to rush his warmup then come in quickly to try and get out of the mess. He got one out, sat down for the bottom of the sixth, then had to pitch again and immediately gave up a leadoff home run to Yasiel Puig. Since Sewald retired the next three hitters, he got dragged out again for the top of the eighth…and gave up another home run!</p>
<p>When you don’t have the best raw talent, it’s even more important for management to put players in a position to succeed. Collins keeps burning his starters and then putting relievers in a position to fail. To make matters worse, he double switched to bring in Sewald. Flores left the game and Jose Reyes came in to hit ninth. Forget Flores’ reputation as a “lefty masher” – his OPS against <i>righties</i> is .161 higher than Reyes. The Mets get nothing from double switching and forcing Neil Walker to play first base for the first time in his big league career. But Collins is obsessed with double switches. Once Collins put his reliever in the fourth spot, he had to make another double switch, removing Conforto from the game. It’s fitting that Travis d’Arnaud – who eventually pinch hit for Conforto’s vacated spot – made the final out.</p>
<p><em>Photo credit: Wendell Cruz &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Game recap August 4: A playoff baseball team (but not the one you&#8217;d like)</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/05/game-recap-august-4-a-playoff-baseball-team-but-not-the-one-youd-like/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 05 Aug 2017 09:55:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Lukas Vlahos]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Game Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Amed Rosario]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brandon Nimmo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chasen Bradford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Erik Goeddel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jacob deGrom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jay Bruce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Smoker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Conforto]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Neil Walker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yoenis Cespedes]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5245</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Primer After losing two in Colorado, the Mets return to Citi Field with Jacob deGrom on the mound, who looks to bounce back after having his eight-game winning streak snapped in Seattle. Opposing the Mets were the behemoth Dodgers and their newly acquired ace, Yu Darvish. The Mets are bad. The Dodgers are historically great. [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3>Primer</h3>
<p>After losing two in Colorado, the Mets return to Citi Field with Jacob deGrom on the mound, who looks to bounce back after having his eight-game winning streak snapped in Seattle. Opposing the Mets were the behemoth Dodgers and their newly acquired ace, Yu Darvish. The Mets are bad. The Dodgers are historically great. You do the math on how this game is going to go.</p>
<h3>Game Recap</h3>
<p>Jacob deGrom ran into the monster that is the Dodgers’ lineup right out of the gate, as he lost a nine-pitch battle to the leadoff hitter Chris Taylor when Taylor deposited a solo home run onto the Party Citi Deck. deGrom ran into more trouble in the inning, giving up a double to Corey Seager and walking Joc Pederson, but he was able to strand runners at second and third and keep the deficit at 1-0. However, his pitch count was already inflated at 31.</p>
<p>The second inning wasn’t quite as arduous, but deGrom again allowed a solo home run, this time to Yasiel Puig. deGrom did manage to strike out two, but wasted six pitches on Yu Darvish and threw another seven pitches to Chris Taylor, pushing his pitch count to 49. Similar struggles dogged deGrom in the third, where he threw another 32 pitches. The Dodgers didn’t score, but all five batters who came to the plate saw at least six pitches.</p>
<p>It seemed like deGrom might be turning a corner after the top of the third. In the bottom half of the inning, he grounded a curveball to left field, an impressive bit of hitting for a position player, let alone a pitcher. Two batters later, deGrom swiped second base for his first career steal, though he’d be stranded at second. To follow that up, deGrom set the Dodgers down in order in the top of the fourth, striking out three on 10 pitches.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, that momentum wouldn’t last. Chris Taylor started the fifth with a single (he only saw four pitches this at bat), and Corey Seager followed that up with a ground ball that could have been a double play, but it went under the glove of the inexperienced first baseman Jay Bruce to put runners on the corners. Justin Turner grounded into a double play to force in a run and Cody Bellinger popped up the first pitch to end the inning, but the Dodger lead was 3-0 and deGrom’s night was done.</p>
<p>The Met ace finished with five innings of three run ball, striking out eight, giving up five hits, and walking three. He certainly didn’t have his best stuff tonight, struggling to command his pitches low in the zone, but this was also far from a bad night by normal pitcher standards. His struggles just exemplify just how much of a meat grinder this Dodger lineup is. It’s easy to see why they’ve gone 41-7 over their last 48 games.</p>
<p>Amed Rosario led off the bottom of the fifth with his first hit at home as a Met, which also continued his career-opening four-game hit streak. Rosario followed that up with his first major league steal, then moved to third on a ground out from Brandon Nimmo. Rosario was ultimately stranded when Michael Conforto struck out, however, and the score remained 3-0.</p>
<p>Josh Smoker entered for the sixth inning and started things off by inducing a dribbler from Joc Pederson. He then walked Yasmani Grandal to bring Chase Utley to the plate. Met fans everywhere probably felt what happened next coming, as Utley launched a two-run home run into upper deck in right to push the Dodger lead to 5-0. In case you wanted a refresher on just how much Utley has owned the Mets, that’s his 39th career homer against New York and his 14th at Citi Field, trailing only Giancarlo Stanton (20 homers at Citi Field). Smoker, a left-handed pitcher, oddly selected to throw a changeup to Utley, a left-handed batter. As SNY went to a break, Keith Hernandez accurately remarked “that’s just a stupid pitch.”</p>
<p>The top of the Dodger lineup tacked on some more runs in the top of the seventh. With Chasen Bradford on the mound, Chris Taylor walked, Corey Seager doubled, and Justin Turner lofted a sacrifice fly to extend the Dodger lead to 6-0. Bradford was able to keep Seager at third, and followed that up with a clean eighth inning. After an excellent outing in Colorado, Bradford tosses 2.2 innings with three strikeouts, allowing one run.</p>
<p>You’ll notice that I’ve made basically no mention of the Met offense so far, and you’re not wrong. There was just very little to comment on. After Conforto lined Darvish’s first pitch into right field for a base hit, the newest Dodger settled in to stifle the Mets. He finished with seven innings of shutout ball, striking out 10 and walking one. All three hits he allowed were singles. Conforto added a second hit in the bottom of the eighth against Josh Fields, but the Mets could make nothing of that baserunner either.</p>
<p>Erik Goeddel set the Dodgers down in order in the top of the ninth with some help from Neil Walker, who made a fantastic defensive play on a pop up over his head. Yoenis Cespedes managed a walk in the bottom of the ninth, but any remaining hope for a comeback was dashed when Joc Pederson ended the game with a leaping catch at the left center field wall to rob Walker of extra bases and end the game.</p>
<p>The loss drops the Mets to 49-58, pushing them to seventh in the reverse standings. Last time the Mets drafted seventh overall, they selected Matt Harvey in 2012. That sounded like a positive tidbit in my head, but then I thought about it a bit more. So it goes with the Mets.</p>
<h3>Thoughts from the Game</h3>
<p>For those of you wondering just how badly the Mets have been smashed by Los Angeles this year, they’ve now given up 18 home runs in five games. The collective score in those games is 11-42. The Mets have been shutout twice in those five games and have lost three games by six runs or more. The closest game was a 6-3 loss in the finale of their four-game set in June.</p>
<p>Will Little is an astoundingly horrific umpire. After throwing out both Russell Martin and Marcus Stroman in a span of about five seconds last week, both sides were continually frustrated with Little’s strike zone Friday night. Jacob deGrom and Yu Darvish both showed their displeasure at various points (though neither of them are as outspoken as Stroman), and it was easy to see why. Little started by calling the low strike, then seemed to start flipping coins with any ball towards either of the low corners the rest of the way. There’s a long diatribe about major league umpires, but suffice to say that I won’t look forward to the next time Will Little is behind the dish.</p>
<h3>Other Met News</h3>
<p>Jay Bruce has <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/893593675095306242" target="_blank">cleared</a> revocable trade waivers, but that’s not particularly surprising given his fairly hefty salary and a general lack of demand for corner bats who can’t play defense. It still seems likely that Bruce will stick out the season with the Mets and receive a qualifying offer. There’s also every chance the Mets look to bring Bruce back next season, as they seem to be the only team left in baseball interested in the profile he offers.</p>
<p><em>Photo credit: Noah K. Murray &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Dodgers series preview August 4-6</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/04/dodgers-series-preview-august-4-6/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Aug 2017 10:00:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Noah Grand]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Series Previews]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jacob deGrom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jay Bruce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Reyes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Conforto]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Neil Walker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Seth Lugo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steven Matz]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5240</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Remember when the Mets beat the Dodgers in the playoffs two years ago? That was fun! Since then, the two teams have gone in opposite directions. The Mets got to the Wild Card game in 2016 and are now largely playing out the stretch in 2017. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are 42-11 since the start of [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Remember when the Mets beat the Dodgers in the playoffs two years ago? That was fun! Since then, the two teams have gone in opposite directions. The Mets got to the Wild Card game in 2016 and are now largely playing out the stretch in 2017. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are 42-11 since the start of June and on pace to win 114 games this season. On of the clearest signs that this wouldn’t be the Mets’ year is when they went to a four-game series in LA and got outscored 36-11. I guess the good news is we’re almost sure to see some good baseball played in Citi Field this weekend. The bad news, of course, is that it’s the visitors we can count on to provide a good show. There are two national TV games, so don’t rely on GKR to get you through this weekend.</p>
<h3>WHEN AND WHERE</h3>
<p>Game 1: Friday @ 7:10 p.m. from Citi Field (TV: SNY; RADIO: 710 WOR, ESPN Deportes)</p>
<p>Game 2: Saturday @ 4:10 p.m. from Citi Field (TV: SNY &amp; FS1; RADIO: 710 WOR, ESPN Deportes)</p>
<p>Game 3: Sunday @ 8 p.m. from Citi Field (TV: ESPN; RADIO: 710 WOR, ESPN Deportes)</p>
<h3>BASEBALL WEATHER</h3>
<p>Friday: Scattered thunderstorms late. 50% chance of rain. 11 mph wind. Low of 73.</p>
<p>Saturday: Early thunderstorms should blow over before the game. Party cloudy, 10-20 mph wind, high of 84.</p>
<p>Sunday: Cloudy with chance of rain going up to 60% as the night goes on. Low of 70.</p>
<h3>PROBABLE PITCHING MATCHUPS</h3>
<p>Friday: RHP Yu Darvish (6-9, 4.01 ERA, 3.06 DRA, .235 TAv, 3.8 WARP) vs. RHP Jacob deGrom (12-4, 3.29 ERA, 2.91 DRA, .234 TAv, 4.2 WARP)</p>
<p>Yu Darvish is bound to get a lot of media attention as he switches leagues for a pennant chase. No better place to make his NL debut than New York. Darvish could easily be better than his 4.01 ERA because he has a massive home/road split since coming back from Tommy John surgery. It’s hard to know what to make of this since Texas’ hitter park reputation <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mid-season-park-factor-update/">is overrated</a>. Either way, Darvish’s strikeout rate has dropped this season. This is the marquee matchup of the series with Jacob deGrom on the mound for the Mets. As everything else seems to be collapsing with the Mets’ pitching staff, he, at least, has stayed consistent.</p>
<p>Saturday: LHP Rich Hill (8-4, 3.35 ERA, 4.38 DRA, .248 TAv, 1.0 WARP) vs. RHP Seth Lugo (5-3, 4.53 ERA, 6.67 DRA, .290 TAv, -0.7 WARP)</p>
<p>When the Mets played in LA, I stuck a fork in Rich Hill. He was coming off an injury and below replacement. Then he threw his best game of 2017 to that point against the Mets, striking out eight in five innings. Hill has been on a roll since: 55 strikeouts in 43 innings, versus only 37 baserunners allowed. He’s even going deeper in to games after being a strict five inning starter early this season. Seth Lugo got hammered again at the beginning of his last start in Seattle. He’s struggled so much that the three consecutive strong innings to end his outing were the bigger surprise. It’s something to build off of, at least.</p>
<p>Sunday: LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (3-6, 3.63 ERA, 4.86 DRA, .284 TAv, 0.7 WARP) vs. LHP Steven Matz (2-4, 5.50 ERA, 6.18 DRA, .299 TAv, -0.4 WARP)</p>
<p>Hyun-Jin Ryu has been relatively healthy this year after missing two whole season, and just making it back is an accomplishment. Ryu has had much more trouble keeping the ball in the ballpark this year, but it’s hard to know how much that is due to changes in the baseball while Ryu was injured. He’s a lefty with reverse platoon splits for his career, so it will be interesting to see what Terry Collins does with the lineup. Steven Matz looked like he was getting over his massive struggles on Tuesday before Collins left him in an inning too long (aka the Terry special). Matz has allowed an absurd 40 hits in 18.1 innings over his last five starts. Opponents have hit .444/.469/.744 in that span! He’s throwing a ton of strikes (66 percent of pitches) but it seems easy to sit on Matz’s weaker offerings and pound them.</p>
<h3>WHO’S HOT?</h3>
<p>Dodgers SS Corey Seager (.940 OPS, five home runs since the All Star break)</p>
<p>Dodgers 1B Cody Bellinger (.990 OPS, five home runs since the break)</p>
<p>Mets OF Michael Conforto (.325/.392/.662 since the break)</p>
<p>Mets OF Jay Bruce (.351 OBP and four home runs on the Mets’ road trip)</p>
<h3>WHO’S NOT?</h3>
<p>Dodgers 2B Logan Forsythe (10-for-54 with 19 strikeouts and 2 extra base hits since the break, but taking most PA from Chase Utley)</p>
<p>Dodgers 3B Justin Turner (8-for-36 with 1 extra base hit his last four series)</p>
<p>Mets 2B Neil Walker (2-for-18 with 7 strikeouts and 3 errors since returning from the DL)</p>
<p>Mets IF Jose Reyes (.526 OPS on the road trip)</p>
<h3>WHEN WE LAST MET</h3>
<p><a href="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2017/08/image.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-5241" src="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2017/08/image.png" alt="image" width="640" height="480" /></a></p>
<h3>IT&#8217;S LITERALLY A 10-DAY DL</h3>
<p>Amed Rosario started all three games in Colorado. Let’s see if he gets a rest day and whether Twitter melts down over it.</p>
<p>Hansel Robles, on the other hand, might be getting a bit more than a rest day. The reliever, who had a disastrous outing Thursday against the Rockies, complained postgame of numbness in his fingers, which, you know, not great.</p>
<h3>NOTABLE QUOTABLES</h3>
<p>&#8220;This is going to be a challenge for me, and I loved to hit when I was in the American League, as I went out there and had fun,&#8221; Darvish said. &#8220;But you have to hit every time you go out there [in the NL]. There is a little concern about it, but this is the first challenge and we will see what happens.&#8221;</p>
<p>&#8220;I&#8217;ve never thrown a pitch like that,&#8221; Robles said after his wild pitch walkoff walk Thursday. Jay-Z has.</p>
<p><em>Photo credit: Jasen Vinlove &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Game recap August 3: Shrimp</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/04/game-recap-august-3-shrimp/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Aug 2017 09:55:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sergei Burbank]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Game Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Amed Rosario]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Curtis Granderson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Erik Goeddel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hansel Robles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jerry Blevins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Smoker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Conforto]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Neil Walker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rafael Montero]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rene Rivera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yoenis Cespedes]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5237</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Mets 4, Rockies 5; Final In the end, even the arrival of Amed Rosario was too much good to be enjoyed. A lost season? Once-in-a-generation pitching on the shelf? All that was needed was a slapstick end to this road trip to make sure no one mistook this team for contenders any time soon. As [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><b>Mets 4, Rockies 5; Final</b></p>
<p>In the end, even the arrival of Amed Rosario was too much good to be enjoyed. A lost season? Once-in-a-generation pitching on the shelf? All that was needed was a slapstick end to this road trip to make sure no one mistook this team for contenders any time soon. As Hansel Robles’ last pitch of the day left his hand and set sail for the Rockies post-haste, we got the mainline adrenaline shot of misery we needed. That’s the stuff. Put it right in my veins.</p>
<p>The Mets wrapped up their 10-game road trip with an ugly, see-saw loss in Colorado. Despite pretty good individual performances over the course of the week (nothing loosens you up like a concession by the front office that your season is over and starting a fire sale), and the much-anticipated arrival of Amed Rosario, there was ample evidence that the 2017 Mets are a bad team. Yesterday&#8217;s result was the inevitable product of when a bad team faces a better one.</p>
<p>The Mets weren’t the only team showing off new players; the Rockies’ new catcher, Jonathan Lucroy, made his first start for the team and would be a deciding factor in the win.</p>
<p>Rafael Montero struggled off the blocks &#8212; surrendering two hits to start the game &#8212; but escaped lasting damage. Montero would steady the ship, retiring the next seven hitters in a row. In the bottom of the third, he got two outs on consecutive strikeouts before surrendering four hits in a row at the top of the order and putting the Mets down 2-0. The bleeding stopped on a nifty play by Rosario (he would be in the middle of a few of them this afternoon) on an infield dribbler by Mark Reynolds.</p>
<p>Yoenis Cespedes halved the Rockies’ lead in the fourth with a powerful home run, his 11th of the season.</p>
<p>Rosario led off the fifth with his second major league triple in his week-long career. Rene Rivera walked, and Montero tied the game with a hard-hit single to right field, the second hit of <i>his</i> career. While the Mets would threaten and load the bases, the best they could manage was tying the game.</p>
<p>The tie was short-lived: Charlie Blackmon had a day, leading off the bottom of the fifth with a solo home run.</p>
<p>The Mets would claw back to a tie in the sixth behind a Rene Rivera RBI single tied the game again with a single. Before Rivera’s game-tying hit, Brandon Nimmo was standing in the on-deck circle, but after Curtis Granderson scored, Montero scrambled back into the box for a hurried strikeout that nevertheless kept his start going.</p>
<p>In the bottom of the frame, Mark Reynolds shredded that idea, giving the Rockies the lead again with a leadoff home run, his 23rd of the season (and a fine way to celebrate his 34th birthday). Montero managed two more outs before Jonathan Lucroy reached on a misplay on a chopper by Asdrubal Cabrera at third, and Terry Collins gave the ball to Josh Smoker, who struck out pinch-hitting Alexi Amarista.</p>
<p>Under a gentle rain that must have felt quite familiar to the native of the Pacific Northwest, Michael Conforto extended his hitting streak to seven games with a leadoff single off Rockies reliever Pat Neshek. He scored on Cabrera’s RBI double, as the Mets tied the game after falling behind for the third time in the afternoon.</p>
<p>Smoker started the seventh, and was replaced after one out by Erik Goeddel, who coughed up a leadoff double to DJ LeMahieu, but the reigning NL batting champion got greedy, tried to stretch the hit into a triple, and was cut down, Cespdes-to-Rosario-to-Cabrera. Goeddel immediately gave up a ground-rule double to Nolan Arenado, and Collins had seen enough, calling upon Jerry Blevins, who coaxed a fly out from Gerardo Parra.</p>
<p>Adam Ottavino walked Jose Reyes to lead off the eighth, and while Reyes was called safe stealing second, it was reversed on review, and Rosario then struck out. Rivera went ahead 3-0, and then got drilled to take first. He was replaced by pinch runner Steven Matz; Rockies Manager Bud Black replaced Ottavino with Mike Dunn, who retired a pinch-hitting Neil Walker.</p>
<p>Hansel Robles raised hopes by pitching a scoreless eighth before immediate cratering Mets fans’ hopes by hitting Lucroy to start the ninth. Pinch hitter Pat Valaika bunted Lucroy over, and the Mets then put Charlie Blackmon on first (without a pitch being thrown, they’re not intentional walks anymore, we need a new term).</p>
<p>Robles then got wild: he walked LeMahieu with five pitches, loading the bases for Arenado &#8212; who had already hit a walkoff against Robles and the Mets in the opening game of the series. After getting ahead 0-2, Robles went to a full count. It seemed by all appearances, a perfect dramatic showdown, the stuff of film. But these are the Mets. The next pitch sailed out of Robles’ hand, almost over Arenado’s head, hitting the backstop on the fly. If there was a film analogue, it would be the Keystone Cops. The Rockies had a walkoff win with nothing but walks.</p>
<p><em>Photo credit: Isaiah J. Downing &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Game recap July 30: Pitching through pain, but not very well</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/31/game-recap-july-30-pitching-through-pain-but-not-very-well/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Jul 2017 09:55:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Noah Grand]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[A.J. Ramos]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Addison Reed]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asdrubal Cabrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fernando Salas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Reyes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Edgin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Smoker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Reynolds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Conforto]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Neil Walker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Seth Lugo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yoenis Cespedes]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5145</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It’s hard not to feel bad for Seth Lugo every time he goes out to pitch. The 27-year old journeyman missed two months with a partial UCL tear in his throwing elbow. He didn’t get a big signing bonus, and this is just his first year in the big leagues. If Lugo shuts down his [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It’s hard not to feel bad for Seth Lugo every time he goes out to pitch. The 27-year old journeyman missed two months with a partial UCL tear in his throwing elbow. He didn’t get a big signing bonus, and this is just his first year in the big leagues. If Lugo shuts down his arm and goes for surgery, he may never get back to the big leagues. On the other hand, if he keeps pitching with a partially torn UCL, it could snap at any moment.</p>
<p>Lugo came out Sunday like a pitcher who didn’t fully trust his arm. He kept throwing pitches over the middle of the plate and hoped that he could fool hitters just by moving up and down the zone. Nelson Cruz struck first, with a three-run upper deck homer. When Leonys Martin hit his first home run of the season off the facing of the upper deck, it was pretty clear that this wouldn’t be Lugo’s day. When Yoenis Cespedes lost a ball in the sun and it fell for a “triple,” it felt like we could just fast forward to the end of a seemingly inevitable 9-1 loss.</p>
<p>Every pitcher the Mets threw out raised more questions about what this team’s plan is. Lugo only allowed one infield hit over the next three innings to stabilize his day. When the Mets activated A.J. Ramos, it seemed like Fernando Salas would get released. Instead the Mets designated Josh Edgin for assignment and Salas came in for the sixth. He got an out, then a routine ground ball that Neil Walker couldn’t handle at second. Salas isn’t good enough to survive giving a team extra outs – he walked Mike Zunino and later Ben Gamel singled in a run. With Edgin out of the pen, Terry Collins turned to Josh Smoker as his lower leverage lefty for the seventh. It was his turn to give up a run.</p>
<p>Finally it was Ramos’ turn. Collins wanted to get him work, even down 7-0. Ramos pitched like the stereotypical closer who doesn’t focus well when used in non-save situations. He gave up a walk, single, and then a double play ball that Walker threw away on the turn. After allowing a run, Ramos gave up two wild pitches in the dirt and another single to make it 9-0. The Mets mounted a small two-out rally in the top of the ninth to avoid a shutout, but Michael Conforto looked at strike three to end the game.</p>
<h3>Reyes Injured</h3>
<p>Jose Reyes got drilled in the forearm by a 98 mph fastball in the top of the fifth inning. He crouched over in pain and had to leave the game immediately. Matt Reynolds moved over from third base to shortstop, while Asdrubal Cabrera entered the game at third. <a href="https://twitter.com/MarcCarig/status/891799519997722625">Marc Carig reported</a> after the game that Reyes’ X-rays are negative.</p>
<p>If Reyes is out for a while, remember that Reynolds is primarily a shortstop. It would be a mistake to assume that the Mets have to call up Amed Rosario because they don’t have any shortstops on the current big league roster. After all, they kept Reyes’ .286 on base percentage, weak glove, and awful off-field character there every day.</p>
<h3>More Trades Coming?</h3>
<p>The Mets don’t play again until after the trading deadline, but Addison Reed has been on the rumor mill for over a week. Many assumed the only rational reason for the Mets to designate Edgin for assignment was if they had lined up a trade. Once a player is designated for assignment, the team still has a week to trade that player before releasing him. However, <a href="https://twitter.com/AnthonyDiComo/status/891750873902202880">Anthony DiComo reported</a> just before the game that the Mets don’t have a trade for Edgin in the works.</p>
<p><em>Photo credit: Steven Bisig &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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