Las Vegas 51s (Triple-A)

BP Mets writer Tyler Oringer has been hammering the table for a Drew Smith call-up, so I figured who else better to bring in to write Smith’s Prospect Watch debut than him.

Pitcher: Drew Smith

Little has gone right for the 2018 New York Mets and before this somewhat historic offensive draught, the bullpen was what seemed like the main cause of concern for Sandy Alderson, Mickey Callaway and Co.

Still, the bullpen has wavered significantly. But luckily, help may be on the way soon in the form of the right-handed Drew Smith.

Smith, who was acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays in the Lucas Duda trade last year, has been straight-up dominant in Triple-A and has limited opponents to no earned runs, six hits and four walks in his last 14 innings, as well as fanning 14 batters.

After being drafted in the third round of 2015 MLB Draft by the Detroit Tigers, it was clear after his first two years in the minors that Smith projected to be at least a serviceable set-up man. Now, following a strong 2017 campaign where he finished with a combined 1.65 ERA in mostly High-A play, it is clear that he is an advanced caliber arm.

2018 has seen him jump from Double-A immediately to Triple-A after 4.1 innings of near-shutdown ball. Smith has excelled against PCL hitting and improved his already plus fastball and secondary slide-curve, which seems to garner more break with each year. He is explosive off of the mound and comes aggressively towards the plate with a violent over-the-top motion. Smith will lift his left knee above his belt buckle, allowing him to get nice extension for power pitches from his back leg. He has struggled with command this year, but has shown improvement recently and clearly has professional stuff.

Smith’s fastball sits around 95 miles per hour, but can get up to 98 on the somewhat rare occasion. Factored in with his ability to deceive batters with his motion, it is no surprise he has compiled an eye-popping career 1.95 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 171 minor league innings.

The prize of the Duda trade currently sits in Vegas, likely awaiting a call despite limited Triple-A action, but once the phone rings – Smith should be ready to perform.

Hitter: Jeff McNeil

The 26-year-old McNeil finally got healthy and tore through the Eastern League this season, hitting .327/.402/.626 with 14 home runs and a 23:22 strikeout to walk ratio. It’s easy to look at his age relative to the league (1.7 years older than the average player) and dismiss his performance, but McNeil hasn’t been this healthy in years. Injuries took a major toll on him the past two seasons, robbing him of valuable at-bats and developmental time, but he looks major league ready right now.

The Mets finally chose to promote McNeil, along with teammate Peter Alonso, to Triple-A Las Vegas Thursday, a move long overdue in this writer’s opinion. While it’s nice to see McNeil and Alonso rewarded for their stellar play, the promotion feels like too-little-too-late. There isn’t a single good argument to be made as to why both are toiling away in the minors while the major league club can’t score a run if Jacob deGrom’s life depended on it. At the least, McNeil’s an upgrade on Jose Reyes as a useful utility man with some pop from the left side.  The Mets are sorely lacking capable hitters and McNeil’s age and current talent level mean this move would make too much sense.

McNeil has worked incredibly hard to get to this point, a testament to his work ethic, and is more than deserving of an opportunity in the big leagues. When that opportunity will come, no one knows, but there’s no denying he’d be a welcome midseason addition to a Mets team in dire need of a spark.

Binghamton Rumble Ponies (Double-A)

Hitter: Patrick Mazeika

Take one look at Mazeika’s triple-slash this season with Binghamton, .212/.311/.359, and you’d likely assume the 24-year-old catcher is struggling for the first time in his professional career. A career .305/.414/.402 hitter, Mazeika is running an incredibly low .206 BABIP this season, a number more than .100 points below his career BABIP. Add in the fact that he’s running a 20:18 strikeout-to-walk ratio and Mazeika’s 2018 looks a lot better than it does on the surface.

Mazeika’s already launched six home runs this season after hitting just seven with Port St. Lucie last year. Once his BABIP normalizes, likely around .280, Mazeika is going to be a guy we talk about as a potential 2019 contributor. If the BABIP stays in the low .200s for the remainder of the season, he’ll be one of my sleeper prospects this offseason.

While he’s going to turn 25 this October, Mazeika still looks like an offense-first backup at peak. I don’t think he’s quite a good enough defender behind the plate to be a regular there, but the bat should play well enough for him to stick as a backup, likely be as the strong side of a platoon. The only concern is the lack of pop, but if Mazeika, who’s run a career 144:130 strikeout-to-walk ratio, can keep his approach, he’s going to provide positive value.

Pitcher: Adonis Uceta

After a breakout 2017 (1.51 ERA across three levels), the 24-year-old Uceta was promoted to Binghamton. Uceta has a fastball that sits in the mid-90s and a change that flashed plus in the past, but his stuff has backed up a bit. He was sitting 92-95 for me with a change that didn’t flash better than average. One of the names to watch prior to the season in a loaded Binghamton bullpen, Uceta’s development has stalled a bit, and I have questions about whether he can be a major league reliever. While I do think his stuff is better than his current results (4.26 ERA), the lack of fastball command and the inconsistency on the changeup is concerning. Uceta has been comfortably passed on the totem pole by Eric Hanhold, Drew Smith and even Tim Peterson. I think he’s likely to repeat Double-A next season, and shouldn’t be counted on when Sandy Alderson and co. are constructing the 2019 roster.

Port St. Lucie (Advanced-A)

Pitcher: David Peterson

What exactly was a former Pac-12 lefty drafted in the first round in part due to his impressive track record against good competition doing in A-ball? I don’t know either. Peterson dominated in the Sally League, to the tune of a 1.82 ERA and 57 strikeouts against 11 walks in 59.1 innings.

It’s par for the course though, and Peterson received a long-awaited promotion to Port St. Lucie last week. I, for one, have a hard time understanding the fascination with a polished college starter if you don’t plan on moving him quickly. If the Mets were looking for an arm to develop for a couple of years, why not draft a prep pitcher instead of Peterson? Realistically, Peterson should be in Double-A by now. Instead, the Mets messed with his timeline by starting him in Columbia. Yet another puzzling decision for an organization oh so prone to them.

Columbia Fireflies (Low-A)

Hitter: Jeremy Vasquez

Vasquez has cooled off mightily after a hot April and that, my friends, is why we don’t jump to rash conclusions so quickly. There was talk that Vasquez was in the same tier as Alonso and Dominic Smith, but that line of thinking is honestly quite absurd. While the Mets do like Vasquez and believe in his ability to hit, he’s a soon to be 22-year-old with an OPS below .800 in A-ball.

While he’s still running a respectable strikeout-to-walk ratio (48 to 35), the complete lack of power (three home runs in 210 at-bats) is concerning for a first base prospect. In 447 career minor league at-bats, Vasquez has hit just 11 home runs. If the Mets truly want to learn what they have in last year’s 28th rounder, they should send him to Port St. Lucie after the All-Star break. Until we see him perform at the upper levels of the minors, I’ll remain skeptical that Vasquez is anything more than a role 3.

 Photo credit: Steve Mitchell – USA Today Sports

Las Vegas 51s (AAA)

Pitcher: RHP Corey Oswalt

Corey Oswalt hasn’t thrown for Vegas since April 13 but he did make his major league debut last Wednesday, throwing 4.2 innings of much-needed mop-up duty against the St. Louis Cardinals. The 24-year-old righty is a former seventh-round draft pick that was named the organizations Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2017 after posting a 2.28 ERA and 119 strikeouts in 134.1 innings at AA Binghamton. Oswalt needed to be protected from the Rule 5 draft this offseason, earning him a spot on the 40-man as well as an invite to big league spring training. The 6’5,” 250-pound hurler looks intimidating on the mound and sits 90-94 mph with his fastball, but it doesn’t generate much movement, leaving Oswalt susceptible to a lot of contact. This was a bigger problem when he was in Single-A throwing an extremely hittable 95 and allowed 153 hits in 128.2 innings, but he’s added a little more sink now and it has seemed to do the trick just fine. The fastball has lost a couple ticks since last season, where he was more in the 92-95 mph range, and it averaged 90.8 mph in his 4.2 innings big league debut. In addition to the heater, Oswalt also throws a slider, changeup and a curveball, of which the slider is definitely the best of the bunch. He doesn’t possess a plus offering, although the slider is close to, if not above average, and he doesn’t have great command either. That being said, Oswalt projects as a back end of the rotation innings eater, and all things considered, that’s a great outcome for a seventh rounder. I think he’s more of a long reliever type than a guy you’re comfortable throwing every fifth day, but he’s capable of starting and his stuff may play up out of the pen.

Hitter: Gavin Cecchini

Cecchini has been on fire to start the season, batting .342/.395/.532 with seven walks against 13 strikeouts for Vegas. The former first-round draft pick in 2012 has moved over to second full time after beginning his professional career at short, a move made in part by the presence of Amed Rosario, but more so because of his limited defensive profile. Cecchini had to be moved off short mainly because of his arm, which isn’t particularly strong and became so inaccurate that he left the Mets little choice. He doesn’t possess great range or speed either, and he profiles as a below-average defender even at second. At this point, his prospect status begins and ends with his ability to get on base, which he’s showcased at every stop throughout his five-year minor league career. Cecchini has 60 hit tool at peak, but his 40 raw power leaves a lot to be desired and he’s never hit more than eight home runs in a single season. The swing is flat and is geared more for any contact rather than good contact, which is a bit of a problem for a second baseman who can’t really field. Cecchini is now 24 years old with nothing substantial left to prove in the minors, but he’s blocked by Rosario and Asdrubal Cabrera at the major league level for the foreseeable future. At this point in his career, Cecchini profiles as a utility guy who can get on base, and that’s valuable enough for a roster spot with an organization next season. I just don’t see it with the Mets, or any National League team rather, as this sort of player is much more valuable to an American League team.

Binghamton Rumble Ponies (AA)

Pitcher: RHP Eric Hanhold

This is Hanhold’s first season as a member of the Mets organization and he’s gotten off to quite the start. After being acquired from Milwaukee in last season’s Neil Walker trade as the PTBNL, the Mets chose to convert him from a starter to a full-time reliever, and the move has paid early dividends. The 6’5,” 220-pound right-hander is long-limbed and has seen his velocity spike in the bullpen, as I had him sitting 94-96 and touching 99 mph in my look a couple weeks ago. The fastball is already a 60 and I’m comfortable projecting heavily on it, I think it’s a 70 at peak, due to the movement it generates in addition to the premium velo. Hanhold gets great sink and movement on the four-seamer — it even shows some two-seam run at its best — and it allows him to induce a ton of ground balls. He posted a 60% groundball rate with the Brewers organization last season and I expect similar numbers moving forward. Like every other Mets relief prospect, Hanhold throws a slider, but it’s already above average and he’s comfortable throwing it in any count. The slider sits 87-89 mph with tight break and is a great change of pace pitch that keeps hitters off his fastball. In a Binghamton bullpen full of interesting relief prospects, I think Hanhold may be the best of the bunch. I see a potential high leverage reliever that could eventually be a middle of the pack closer, which is a fantastic outcome for half a season of Neil Walker.

Hitter: Patrick Mazeika

The Mets have had success drafting position players from Stetson University (see: Jacob deGrom) and Mazeika hopes to be the next major league contributor from the small school in Florida. An eighth-round pick in 2015, Mazeika has hit for a high average at every stop of his minor league career thus far. Although his hit tool far outweighs his game power, Mazeika gets on base at an excellent clip for a catching prospect. It’s not too often you find catchers with this track record of on-base ability, but Mazeika needs to show he can perform at the higher levels of the minors. He’s currently hitting .225/.304/.394 for AA Binghamton, a far cry from his 2016 and 2017 numbers. The biggest knock on Mazeika has been his defense behind the dish; he has a strong arm, but he doesn’t block particularly well and is big for the position. I’ve been able to get three looks at him behind the plate and all in all it’s been a bit of a mixed bag. I saw some positive developments in regards to his framing as well as the strong arm he possesses, but I also saw him allow a couple passed balls, not to mention a couple of steals, mainly because he’s slow to pop despite his strong arm. He only threw out 32% of base stealers last season between Single-A and Double-A and that’s going to need to improve in order for him to have a shot. Unfortunately, I think he’s a little too big and not a good enough athlete to stick behind the dish. I’m intrigued by the on-base ability though, and if I squint hard enough, I can see a big league backup catcher who’s more hit tool than defense.

Columbia Fireflies (A)

Pitcher: LHP Anthony Kay

After missing all of 2017 due to Tommy John surgery, Kay made his highly anticipated minor league debut for the Fireflies on April 8, allowing no runs in four innings to go along with four strikeouts. Kay is a local kid — he grew up on Long Island and went to the University of Connecticut — who was overworked heavily in his draft year before being selected 31st overall by the Mets. Prior to the injury, Kay projected as a solid lefty starter who could potentially move quickly through the system. He’s actually been throwing harder since his return than he was at UConn, which is unexpected but certainly a welcome development. He was 88-93 mph with his fastball in college but is reportedly now 90-94 and even touched 96 in his debut outing. Kay complements his fastball with a changeup that sits in the low 80s and flashes plus, as well as a curveball that’s fringy and slurve-like. The 23-year-old has a clean delivery that he has no trouble repeating and he works quickly. He doesn’t have great command (he’s walked seven in 20 innings so far), but it should get better with more reps and it probably settles around average or a little above. Kay already looks to be too advanced for Low-A and should get the chance to pitch in Port St. Lucie at some point this season. It’s hard to project a 23-year-old in Low-A, but Kay still looks like a future No. 4 starter for the Mets. That being said, he’s probably two years away at his point, which would make him 25 when he eventually latches on in the big leagues full time.

Hitter: Jeremy Vasquez

Vasquez has exploded onto the scene in 2018, hitting a blistering .325/.455/.545 while reaching base safely in 23 consecutive games. A 28th round pick in the 2017 draft, he split last season with Kingsport and Brooklyn and hit only .266/.368.430. The 21-year-old has more walks (20) than strikeouts (16) so far, but he’s old for Low-A Columbia and has never performed this well previously. Vasquez has below average raw power and is more hit tool than power, which isn’t a great profile for a guy who can only play first. The more highly regarded Peter Alonso faced similar questions last season as a first base-only guy who was more hit tool than power, but a swing change has allowed for his 70 raw power to play much better in games. I don’t see above-average raw power here for Vasquez, so a swing change may not do much in the way of increased power production. The expectations weren’t high to begin with — they never are with a 28th rounder — but I’ve seen Vasquez’s name thrown into the first baseman of the future conversation along with Peter Alonso and Dom Smith and frankly, that’s absolutely ridiculous. I’m extremely skeptical of Vasquez’s hot start to the season, but I’d like to see him get a chance at Port St. Lucie before I jump to any major conclusions.

Photo credit: Gregory Fisher – USA Today Sports

Joining Justin Dunn in the St. Lucie rotation to open the season—and hopefully in Binghamton before the year is over—is Marcos Molina (#15). Like Dunn, the 22-year-old pitcher comes with questions as to his ability to remain as a starter, yet those doubts are even louder with Molina. While athletic with plus stuff, Molina’s mechanics are far from ideal as he makes his return from Tommy John surgery. After sitting in the upper 80s with his fastball on the minor league backfields at the end of spring training, Molina has found his way back onto the disabled list to open the season. The complete lack of involvement of his lower body in his delivery puts an exorbitant amount of stress on his arm, which is unlikely to be sustainable for a starting pitcher. While his mechanics are not ideal for a relief pitcher—any kind of pitcher, really—shorter stints out of the pen would put less stress on Molina’s arm and allow him to sit closer to his peak velocity. While Molina is older now than this comp was then, Roberto Osuna’s 2015 promotion from a single-A starting pitcher who had undergone Tommy John surgery to a late-inning role in a major league bullpen is not out of the question for Molina. While that is obviously not what the Mets are planning to do with him at the moment, moving Molina to the bullpen sooner rather than later might make the most sense for all parties. With his stuff, Molina could legitimately pitch out of a major league bullpen before the 2017 season is finished.

Best known as the “non-elite prospect” the Mets acquired in the R.A. Dickey trade in 2012, the now-22-year-old Wuilmer Becerra (#10) has made the Baseball Prospectus Mets Top Ten two seasons running. Becerra, who underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in July, was protected from the Rule 5 Draft this winter despite not yet being ready to play the field to open the 2017 season. As the projected everyday designated hitter for the St. Lucie Mets for the first stretch of the season, Becerra will look to combine his above-average raw power with the plus hitting ability he has flashed in his recent seasons. While dealing with the shoulder injury during the first half of last season, Becerra hit only a single home run for St. Lucie in 2016, which isn’t going to work for a major league right fielder, his usual defensive home. However, if Becerra is able to put the whole package together, the tools are loud enough for him to project as an everyday right fielder in the majors. But even beyond the injury concerns, it’s a package with plenty of risk at the moment. A healthy and productive season that ends in the upper minors, highlighted by an increase in in-game power, could propel Becerra further up the Mets prospect lists and potentially onto global prospect lists next winter.

The Mets’ 2015 eighth-round pick out of Stetson University, Patrick Mazeika is a bat-first prospect whose ultimate future value is going to be determined by his defensive home. Mazeika, who has walked almost as many times as he’s struck out so far in his pro career—and gets an additional OBP boost from his Brandon Guyer-esque attraction to pitched baseballs—also offers a potential major-league-quality hit tool. If he is able to stick behind the plate, that is a good offensive starting point for a major league catcher. If he is forced to move off the position, which is a legitimate possibility given his current below-average glove and 6’3″ frame, he veers dangerously close to non-prospect status. His relative lack of power and line drive approach would not play well at first base—a position he has played some in his career—and the bat isn’t much more attractive in a corner outfield spot; he may not have the defensive chops for that anyway. His most realistic path to the major leagues is as a bat-first catcher whose high OBP makes up for his mediocre home run power and lackluster defense behind the plate.

2016 second-round pick Peter Alonso (#19), however, does not lack for power. Alonso has the best raw pop in the entire Mets minor league system. A right-handed hitting and fielding first baseman, he represents a bit of a rare breed as a prospect. Rarely are right-handed hitting first basemen considered to be prospects worthy of a high draft pick and the $909,200 signing bonus that Alonso received. Given that profile, his prospect status and baseball future relies solely on his bat and his ability to reach into his 70 raw power in games. After jumping over the South Atlantic League to open his first full professional season, Alonso will come to the Florida State League with the expectation that his bat will carry him into the upper minors and eventually to the major leagues. If he is able to adjust to better pitching than he saw in the SEC and shorten his swing from what he has shown to this past, he has a chance to develop into a middle-of-the-order bat sooner rather than later.

After selecting RHP Andrew Church (#21) with the 48th pick in the 2013 draft, the early returns for the Mets were less than stellar. At the end of the 2015 season, the now-21-year-old Church had yet to get out of short-season ball, and only struck out 75 batters in 132 professional innings.  2016 was a different story. Church emerged from extended spring training on May 24 to strike out nine batters in five innings for Columbia in his 2016 debut. For the season, he started 15 games, posting a 2.92 ERA and an improved, yet still pedestrian, 20.2% K-rate. Church, whose fastball touches as high as the mid 90s and slider flashes plus, will look to build on his 2016 campaign with an aggressive Double-A assignment. As Jarrett Seidler wrote recently, this season will be Church’s last before he is eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, so his performance—or lack thereof—in 2017 should give us a lot more clarity on his major league future.

Yet another 2016 draft pick making the jump from the Brooklyn Cyclones to the St. Lucie Mets in 2017 is fifth-round pick Colby Woodmansee. Woodmansee—who, given his tall frame, is likely to eventually move off of shortstop—skips over the South Atlantic League despite a mediocre 2016 season in his time at both the collegiate and professional levels. Following a strong sophomore year at Arizona State, Woodmansee was penciled in as a first or second round draft pick. However, a lack of improvement in his junior season allowed him to slip to the Mets in the fifth round, where they are hoping he can show again why he was considered by some to be a first round talent just a few months before the draft…St. Lucie’s lineup will also feature the return of 23-year-old John Mora. Mora, who got some burn in major league spring training, has limited power and average-at-best tools elsewhere. If he doesn’t end this season in Binghamton or Vegas, his chances of making the major leagues down the road can be considered minimal at best…the bullpen will feature Tyler Bashlor, who received a well-over-slot $550,000 signing bonus after being selected in the 11th round in 2013. Bashlor boasts a fastball that can touch 98 mph and a developing breaking ball. He has a chance to rise quickly to the majors if he is able to stay healthy and keep his walks under control.

Photo Credit: Reinhold Matay – USA Today Sports