Las Vegas 51s (Triple-A)

Pitcher: P.J Conlon

If you pulled up P.J Conlon’s player page and looked solely at his career minor league stats: 2.85 ERA, 0.67 HR/9, 1.98 BB/9, you wouldn’t be wrong in thinking the Mets have another solid pitching prospect on their hands. What those stats won’t tell you though is that Conlon’s fastball averages just 86 mph; and that folks is why you don’t scout the stat line.

Conlon’s a former 13th round pick that’s surpassed all expectations thus far but honestly, no one’s quite sure how. Standing only 5’11” with a fastball that barely touches 90 mph, it’s honestly perplexing that we’ve even arrived at this point. In need of a spot starter in Cincinnati, the Mets added Conlon to the 40-man roster and he made his major league debut, allowing three runs in 3.2 innings.

Conlon pairs a good changeup with a funky delivery that generates some much-needed deception. The change sits in the mid to high 70s and, while it is his best offering, it just doesn’t generate enough whiffs for Conlon to cut it as a starter in the big leagues. One might think that if Conlon isn’t succeeding via the strikeout, he must be elite at inducing groundballs. That’s not his secret to success either though, as his career groundball rate stands at a middle of the pack 43.08%.

So how exactly has Conlon been able to achieve this level of success? It’s a great question that no one seems able to answer, not even the Mets. Although he’s not going to be a starter in the majors, Conlon has good career splits against lefties and could potentially fill a LOOGY role for some organization.

Hitter: Phillip Evans

I’m honestly not sure if Evans still has prospect eligibility (spoiler alert: he does!) but have you seen the 51s roster recently? It’s rougher than you can even imagine and the reason why Tim Tebow is talked about as a legitimate call-up candidate.

Evans was with the big league club just this Tuesday, but Jose Bautista took his roster spot and poor Phil has to wait for another chance. A former 15th round pick in the 2011 draft, the versatile Evans will turn 26 later this year, his seventh as a pro. He actually made the Opening Day roster but was sent down rather quickly in favor of an almost but not really healed Michael Conforto.

I saw Evans in Vegas last month and while I’m not his biggest fan, I’d much rather see him on the Mets bench than Bautista. Evans won a batting title in 2016 and is showing some improved power this season with nine home runs in 118 at-bats, but he’s yet to get an extended look in the big leagues. It seemed like he was finally going to get his chance when the Mets finally DL’d Yoenis Cespedes but nope, Jose Bautista!

I’m skeptical of Evans’ potential as a major leaguer long-term, but I think he’s deserving of a chance to show why he belongs. A utility man who can play passable infield defense, be an emergency catcher and has some pop is an intriguing player that can provide some value off the bench, especially in the National League. If only the team that employs Jose Reyes could use someone like that…

Binghamton Rumble Ponies (Double-A)

Pitcher: Marcos Molina

Where do I even begin on Marcos Molina? After flashing a plus fastball/slider combo in the lower depths of the system, Molina missed all of 2016 due to Tommy John surgery. Which is fine, considering Tommy John isn’t the death sentence for pitchers that it once was and Molina was still young.

The problem is we’re now two years removed from the operation and Molina’s stuff is still nowhere to be found. After a mediocre 2017 with Binghamton, the Mets sent Molina back again to repeat the level, hopefully with better results. It was a reasonable idea in theory, but the results have been disastrous thus far and that’s a big problem considering Molina’s occupying a 40-man spot.

With Anthony Swarzak seemingly close to a return and in need of a reinstatement to the 40-man, there’s a high possibility that it’s Molina whose roster spot is in jeopardy. That’s because Molina’s been downright awful this season with both Binghamton and Las Vegas. In 36.2 innings for the Rumble Ponies, Molina’s got a 6.14 ERA to go along with a putrid 6.38 K/9 and 3.93 BB/9. He was even worse in Vegas, holding a 9.35 ERA and a 5.19 BB/9 in just eight and two-thirds innings. The possibility of converting Molina to the bullpen is becoming increasingly likely with each passing day, especially considering the Mets are running out of time with him. Having never been known for possessing good command, a move to a relief role could suit both parties well, and it’s likely the only scenario in which Molina keeps his roster spot.

Hitter: Jhoan Urena

It’s hard to believe, but this is Urena’s seventh season as a pro and we’re still waiting for the breakout season above Low-A. I’ve seen Urena a bunch this season and have come away from each look wanting to like him a lot more than I really do. Urena has the look of a future big leaguer with some deceptive athleticism to boot, but he’s yet to put it all together and I’m increasingly worried he never will.

For starters, Urena is awful in right field, where he’s started the majority of games this season for the Rumble Ponies. He’s also played third base and while he’s better there, I have him as a 35, which is just an emergency starter. That means Urena is destined for a future in left or at first, positions where he’s really going to have to hit to justify his position, and I’m just not confident that he’s going to be able to do that.

I should mention that Urena’s battled hamate bone injuries in the past, a pesky injury known to sap power from hitters. Urena has just three home runs this season, which isn’t a surprise considering his swing doesn’t have much loft, but game power is an important part of the profile at first base or left field. That being said, the swing is max effort in all counts and Urena strikes out too much for a guy with this little power.

I’m down on Urena’s chances as a future major league contributor, but I’m still holding out some hope that he can add some more power to his game. It’s been seven seasons though and we’ve yet to see it, so it’s hard to be too hopeful here.

Port St. Lucie Mets (High-A)

Pitcher: Ryder Ryan

Acquired from Cleveland in last year’s Jay Bruce trade, Ryan is off to a really nice start with Port St. Lucie. In his first 16 appearances this season, Ryan’s got a 1.77 ERA and a 23:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 20.1 innings.

I know what you’re thinking: a reliever acquired at the 2017 deadline must be a fastball/slider guy, and well, you’re correct. Ryan sits in the mid-90s with his fastball and complements it with his slider, but not much else. He’s currently running a strikeout rate of 30% to go along with a 6.5% walk rate, which bodes well for a potential future as a high leverage reliever. Ryan is 23 and in A ball but he pitched all of one inning in college, so there aren’t really age concerns here.

What’s really interesting is that Ryan’s numbers were pretty average with the Cleveland organization, but since the trade he’s seemingly found a new gear. The Mets have a proven track record of developing this profile, so Ryan couldn’t have found a better landing spot than New York. If Ryan keeps this up, he’s going to be looking at a promotion to Double-A Binghamton by year’s end. He’s certainly a name to keep an eye on as the season progresses.

Columbia Fireflies (A)

Hitter: Wuilmer Becerra

Becerra came over as an additional piece in the R.A Dickey trade that brought Noah Syndergaard and Travis d’Arnaud to New York back in 2012. He’s flashed potential when healthy but injuries have really slowed his development down, and that’s why we’re talking optimistically about a 23-year-old in A ball.

Becerra’s noteworthy skill is his hit tool, which looks like a 60 at peak. He’s struggled with shoulder injuries, including but not limited to a torn labrum, that have robbed him of his power and ability to throw.

Becerra was held back in extended spring training and has only played five games with the Fireflies, so we don’t have any new information on him yet. If he stays healthy though, this is the sort of player that could break out and turn heads by the end of the year. We’ll need to see a power spike to improve the future outlook, but if he stays healthy, don’t be surprised if Becerra ends the season in Binghamton.

Photo credit: David Kohl – USA Today Sports

AAA Las Vegas 51s

1B Dominic Smith

Smith is a great example of just how quickly the public perception of a prospect can change. At this time last year, Mets fans were clamoring for the highly regarded Smith to get a call-up to the big leagues. Now? They want to trade him after only 170 at-bats to clear the way for Peter Alonso. A first-round pick in 2013, Smith hit at every level in the minors but really struggled last year with the Mets, slashing .198/.262/.395. A rare hit-before-power first baseman prospect, Smith is going to really need to get on base in order to be anything more than league average.

One of the biggest criticisms of Smith has been his weight, but he looked a lot lighter this spring and I was floored when I saw him in person. He looked at least 20 pounds lighter and his athleticism is more evident now. Smith has always been considered a plus defender at first due to his soft hands and ability to scoop bad throws, and I saw much of the same in my look. Unfortunately, Smith didn’t see a single good pitch to hit on the evening; Fresno chose to pitch him cautiously, and it ultimately resulted in four walks for Smith. Smith has an old-school approach at the plate, which explains his high walk-to-strikeout ratio as well as his low home run output. I was impressed with his pitch recognition and approach, which need to be plus, and they are, if this profile is going to work in the big leagues. He’s the sort of player that really divides scout’s opinions: they either like him and think he’ll get on base enough, or they don’t think he profiles as a regular at first. I fall into the first camp and think Smith is going to be a major league contributor at first for some organization. With Peter Alonso doing his best Rhys Hoskins impression though, it’s become a real question whether Smith will get the chance to be that for the Mets. I don’t think it’s in the Mets best interests to sell him for pennies on the dollar based on his short major league stint last season, but I also think Alonso has passed him at this point and there may not be a spot on the major league team. It’s a good problem to have and if Adrian Gonzalez continues to struggle, one of them will get the call. Just who that is remains to be seen, although Alonso has to be the favorite at this point.

SS Luis Guillorme

Upon first glance, Guillorme looks extremely out of place on the diamond, much less at shortstop. Then you see him play defense and wonder why he’s in Triple-A and Jose Reyes is in the big leagues. I wrote about Guillorme in our first Prospect Watch of the season and think he’s going to be a valuable contributor for a long time. He has fantastic range at short despite his below average wheels and makes plays Reyes dreams of. I saw him make a diving stop on a ball up the middle and throw the runner out from his knees, just to give you an idea of the impact he could have at short. At the dish, Guillorme likes to go the opposite way and has an advanced two-strike approach; he walked 17 more times than he struck out last season at Double-A Binghamton. He’s never going to hit for much power and it’s likely his OBP is higher than his SLG, but couple that with his defense and we’re talking about an extremely valuable player. I think there’s utility man risk here, especially with the Mets, but Guillorme can get a starting role with a different organization at short. There’s no doubt in my mind he can be an asset for the Mets right now but the team’s in more immediate need of guys who can hit, which Guillorme can, but he still has some things to work on and can use the everyday at-bats he’s getting in Vegas.

3B David Thompson

Thompson, a 2013 fourth-round pick, hit .263/.325/.429 for Binghamton last season and showed enough promise to earn a promotion to Triple-A to begin the year. He’s a pretty “boring” prospect in the sense that he doesn’t do anything particularly well; instead, he does everything good enough. Thompson is intriguing as a hitter because he doesn’t strike out at an egregious rate and has some pop — he hit 16 home runs in Double-A last season — but it remains to be seen if that’s enough to outweigh his below-average on-base production. He’s never OBP’d higher than .344 in the minors and was at just .325 last season. Thompson went 1-3 in my look, with a single, a walk and a strikeout. I thought his defense was good enough to stick at third but I don’t think the bat profiles there. Thompson is currently a 35 with a chance for a 40, a below average regular, because he could be a guy who sees his home run rate spike in the big leagues.

UTIL Phillip Evans

Evans is the definition of a utility player and his defensive flexibility can be valuable for a National League team. Like other position player prospects at Vegas, he doesn’t strike out often and walks a healthy amount. Evans broke out in 2016 with a .321 average across two levels, but it’s an outlier among some subpar minor league seasons. Capable of playing “passible” defense at every infield position, Evans earned a spot on the Mets Opening Day roster but only made three appearances as a pinch hitter before being sent back down. Evans went 0-4 with two strikeouts in my look and was disappointing at the plate overall. The Mets have a lot of guys in the upper-level minors who can play multiple positions but project as utility players, which is a good thing or a bad thing depending on who you ask. Evans value will come from his defensive versatility, but I’m not sure he ever gets a long enough look with a major league club.

AA Binghamton Rumble Ponies

1B Peter Alonso

Alonso is all the rage these days and rightfully so: the dude is smashing the cover off the ball at Binghamton, hitting .393/.490/.762 with eight home runs to start the season. He’s struck out 18 times against 16 walks and has debuted a new approach at the plate to go along with the swing change he made at the end of last season. Safe to say it’s worked, as Alonso’s hit tool has caught up to his game power, resulting in the incredible output we’ve seen thus far. I’ve seen Alonso three times this season and he’s been impressive, to say the least: he homered in two of the three games and was 2-4 with a walk in the other. Alonso has always had 70 raw power, but he’s now got a 60 hit tool to go along with it. I do think he needs to work on his off-speed recognition, I saw him hit two soft lineouts on offspeed pitches to second in my most recent look, but it’s a minor qualm with an otherwise polished hitter. On the defensive side of things, he’s still a 40 for me at first, as I’ve seen him make great plays along with some really bad ones. Alonso takes bad routes to fly balls and completely whiffed on an easy popup in front of the dugout in my most recent look. He still pulls his head out on scoops and has dropped a couple balls because of it. That being said, I saw him snag a sharp line drive from Cavan Biggio to double up Vlad Jr. and it was a thing of beauty. The defense is better than last year but I don’t know if there’s much more room for improvement, he may just be what he is, which isn’t a problem when you can hit like Alonso. I think that some sort of transaction is going to be made before June 1, but I’m not entirely sure what it’s going to be. Dom Smith could get the call to the bigs while Alonso heads to Triple-A, or Alonso can follow the Michael Conforto route, jumping straight from Double-A to the majors. I think the latter is more likely and there’s no question the Mets are going to be aggressive in upgrading the position if Gonzalez proves he’s just not a good baseball player anymore.

RHP Nabil Crismatt

Crismatt’s gotten off to an incredible start to the season and he’s doing it with some pretty average stuff for a starting pitcher. He’s got a 2.28 ERA to go along with 32 strikeouts against only five walks in 27.2 innings for Binghamton. I saw Crismatt against the best team in the Eastern League, the New Hampshire Fisher Cats (Toronto Blue Jays Double-A affiliate) and I came away extremely impressed. Crismatt was efficient and finished with 92 pitches, allowing only one earned run while striking out six and only walking one. He was working with a fastball sitting 86-87 mph and touching 88 in the early innings, but it dropped to around 85-86 as we entered the fourth. The fastball has natural two-seam run and Crismatt keeps it low in the zone, which leads to a lot of groundball outs. Although it doesn’t have great velo, the fastball plays up due to Crismatt’s above average command, and he’s not afraid to attack hitters with it in two-strike counts. His best offering is a plus changeup that sits 78-80 mph and generates a ton of swings and misses. It has good drop and is his go-to two-strike pitch, and it wasn’t squared up once on the evening. He also throws a curveball which was 66-70 mph for me with 12-6 movement, but it can get loopy and advanced hitters are going to tee off on it. Crismatt hung a curveball to Vlad Jr. (note to MLB pitchers, this is a REALLY bad idea) and he smashed it to left center for an RBI single. Crismatt also has a slider but he only threw six for me; it was 76-77 mph with late break and flashes above average. I think it’s useful against right-handed hitters but it’s probably too slow to get outs against lefties consistently. Overall, I thought he had great pitch mix, limits hard contact, and wasn’t afraid to go after guys despite his average (besides the change) stuff. I think he’s a future No. 4/5 who should be ready to debut sometime next season.

RHP Andrew Church

Church was just placed on the 7-day disabled list, but I saw him in a start against New Hampshire and the results weren’t pretty. Church was in trouble all night and the Fisher Cats got to him early, as he allowed two runs in the first: a leadoff home run to Jonathan Davis and an RBI groundout to Vlad Jr. Church was sitting 88-90 mph with his fastball, which is consistent with what I had him at when I saw him earlier in the season, but it got him into trouble early and he went away from it after the first inning. Instead, he was working with his slider, which was 82-84 mph, and his curve, which was 70-74 mph and generated groundball outs. He was starting at-bats out with his slider, which has significant right to left movement, and it’s a real weapon against left-handed hitters. Church was reluctant to use his below-average curveball, but development of a useful third pitch is necessary for him to move up the minor league ladder. He works quickly and pitches to contact but based on my two looks, I think he’s a 30 who still has many things he needs to work on.

RHP Tyler Bashlor

Bashlor is one of many hard throwing right-handed relievers in Binghamton, but he wasn’t great in my most recent look. Bashlor was brought in with one out and a man on first, and he proceeded to walk the bases loaded on only eight pitches. He was able to escape trouble though, with a strikeout and a fly ball to end the inning. Bashlor was missing up and out of the zone with his fastball consistently, and pitching coach Frank Viola went out twice during the inning to try and calm him down. Overall, Bashlor has been terrific this season with a 0.96 ERA and 12 strikeouts against five walks in 9.1 innings. Fastball command is going to be a big key for Bashlor, who’s already on the 40-man and looks likely to take a ride on the Mets bullpen shuttle at some point this season.

Photo credit: Andy Marlin – USA Today Sports

The Marlins return for the first time in almost two weeks, forced to play three “home” games in Milwaukee over the weekend while storm-ravaged Miami continued to pick up the pieces from Hurricane Irma.

New York is 7-9 against the Marlins this season with a run differential of +1.

When and Where

Game 1: Monday @ 7:10 p.m. EST (TV: SNY; RADIO: 710 WOR, ESPN Deportes)

Game 2: Tuesday @ 7:10 p.m. EST (TV: SNY; RADIO: 710 WOR, ESPN Deportes)

Game 3: Wednesday @ 1:10 p.m. EST (TV: SNY; RADIO: 710 WOR, ESPN Deportes)

Baseball Weather

Monday: 40% chance of scattered thunderstorms with a low of 77F; Winds between 5-10 mph

Tuesday: 80% chance of thunderstorms with a low of 77F; Winds light and variable

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with a high of 88F; Winds between 5-10 mph

Probable Pitching Matchups

Monday: RHP Matt Harvey (5-5, 6.14 ERA, 5.52 DRA, .300 TAv, 0.1 WARP) vs. RHP Dan Straily (9-9, 4.24 ERA, 4.61 DRA, .273 TAv, 1.8 WARP)

Harvey took a step backwards on Wednesday at Wrigley Field, allowing five runs on seven hits and four walks over 3.1 innings. The former All-Star is now 1-2 with a 12.19 ERA in three starts since returning from the disabled list.

Straily was also hit hard his last time out, charged with eight runs on 13 hits in six innings at Citizens Bank Park.

Tuesday: RHP Seth Lugo (6-5, 5.21 ERA, 5.55 DRA, .289 TAv, 0.0 WARP) vs. TBD

Lugo was also knocked around by the Cubs, lasting just three innings and allowing eight runs (seven earned) in the loss. He will once again be limited to around 70-75 pitches.

Wednesday: RHP Rafael Montero (5-10, 5.08 ERA, 4.79 DRA, .294 TAv, 0.9 WARP) vs. RHP Jose Urena (13-6, 3.62 ERA, 4.52 DRA, .260 TAv, 1.7 WARP)

Montero lost for the first time in almost a month behind 4.2 innings of three-run ball in Atlanta on Friday night. The 26-year-old has a 3.51 ERA dating back to August 14, a span of eight appearances (seven starts) in which he has struck out 38 batters over 41 innings.

Urena did not factor in the decision in Friday night’s loss in Milwaukee, needing 101 pitches to get through 4.2 innings. A bright spot for the Marlins this season, the Dominican native is 2-3 with a 3.50 ERA lifetime against the Mets.

Who’s Hot?

Mets 1B Dom Smith (1.433 OPS with 2 HR and 6 RBIs since Wednesday)

Mets INF Asdrubal Cabrera (.556 AVG (10-for-18) during his six-game hitting streak)

Mets OF Nori Aoki (On base 6 times in last 10 plate appearances, including two doubles and a triple)

Mets 2B/SS Gavin Cecchini (4-for-8 with 2 RBIs in Braves series)

Marlins 2B Dee Gordon (4-for-8 with 2 runs scored since Saturday)

Marlins 1B Justin Bour (5-for-11 with 3 RBIs at Miller Park)

Marlins 3B Derek Dietrich (3-for-8 with a homer and 3 RBIs this weekend)

Who’s Not?

Mets OF Brandon Nimmo (1-for-11 with 5 strikeouts in Atlanta)

Mets CF Juan Lagares (.143 AVG (5-for-35 over his last 10 games)

Marlins OF Christian Yelich (2-for-20 over the past week)

Marlins RF Giancarlo Stanton (3-for-18 with no extra-base hits in his last 5 games)

When We Last Met

The Mets dropped two of three at home a month ago, winning the middle game behind six strong innings from Montero and homers by Smith, Wilmer Flores, and Kevin Plawecki.

It’s Literally a 10-Day DL

Marlins: SS Miguel Rojas left Sunday’s game early after straining his left shoulder diving for a ball.

Mets: RHP Noah Syndergaard (torn right lat) will pitch in a simulated game this week and could be activated for next weekend’s home series against Washington.

Notable Quotables

“It’s been a difficult trip, I think, for a number of reasons. Number one, obviously, I think we haven’t played well so that’s the start of it and it gets extended so it’s a little up in the air and a lot’s going on. We had guys that had to stay back for a day and then they flew in, or two days, and kind of lived through the hurricane for different reasons. You had guys with things going on, so there’s a lot going on with families and things that are back in Miami or Florida in general.” – Marlins skipper Don Mattingly on the recent road trip

“I tried to get the sinkers away from the lefties. There’s a lot of lefties in the lineup and I used my changeup and I thought it worked well.” – Mets starter Robert Gsellman discussing his win on Sunday, in which he allowed just an unearned run over seven sharp innings

“I thought I’d give him a start today, big hit for him. I thought he made some good plays at third. He’s another guy that’s had to reinvent himself a little bit. He signed as a shortstop. They moved him around the infield a little bit and he’s not a big power hitter but he’s a pretty good offensive (player). He puts the bat on the baseball.” – Mets manager Terry Collins on rookie third baseman Phil Evans, who drove in and scored his first big league runs on Sunday

Photo credit: Benny Sieu – USA Today Sports