Fortunately, the Mets remain quite involved in the playoff hunt. Entering the off-day on Monday, they were only two games behind the Marlins for a Wild Card spot. It’s a tight race however, as three other teams find themselves within at least four games of the Marlins. The Cardinals are just ahead of the Mets, and the Pirates and Rockies are both nipping at their heels.

The Mets have an ace in the hole, and while it’s not quite Matt Harvey recovering from surgery with Wolverine-like speed, it’s a help. Terry Collins’ crew has the weakest remaining schedule of any Wild Card contender. Sure, there will be some tense series with the Nationals and Marlins ahead, but for the most part, their last two months will feature games against some really bad times. Most notably, they play the free-falling Phillies and cellar-dwelling Braves a combined 16 times over their final 51 games.

While the other Wild Card contenders have their share of weak competition as well, none have it as good as the Mets. The Baseball Prospectus remainder of season projections suggest that the Mets will have the best record of any of their Wild Card opponents, too. Here’s how the teams shake up:

The Mets might be two games back, but for the rest of the way, their opponents presently only have a combined .473 winning percentage. Of the five Wild Card contenders, the Mets are the only ones projected to play at least two games over .500. In fact, three of them should play under .500.

So the road ahead is in the Mets’ favor, and the difference in quality of play will only grow more apparent as the season winds down. The Mets have 25 games after Labor Day, and just six of them will be against good teams (the Nationals and Marlins). Following an off-day on September 15, the Mets have a 10-game homestand to wrap up the regular season at Citi Field. The teams they face will be the Braves, the Phillies, and the worst team in the American League, the Twins. That lineup of teams is about as cozy as imaginable in 2016.

A pivotal three-game series in Miami follows that, but then the Mets will finish the regular season with three games in Philadelphia. Meanwhile, the Marlins will have to contend with the Nationals while the Cardinals and Pirates duke it out between each other. The Rockies merely play the Brewers, but they have the toughest remaining schedule of all five Wild Card contenders, and they should be out of the mix by then anyway. It’s possible that Dusty Baker takes it easy and rests some starters against the Marlins, but they will still be at least somewhat competitive.

Obviously, the path is not this simple, as the Mets have to actually play the games. There are reasons why the Baseball Prospectus playoff odds still project the Cardinals to capture that last Wild Card spot, after all. As of Monday, they were 40.9 percent likely to make it compared to the 40.1 percent and 34.6 percent odds of the Marlins and Mets, respectively. (The Pirates and Rockies were way behind at 6.2 percent and 3.9 percent each.)

It’s not even a guarantee that the Mets take advantage of all those games against the Braves and Phillies either. So far in 2016, they have gone a combined 12-10 against them—a winning record, but just barely. They should be beating them more easily, and their failure to do so has been partially responsible for their current situation.

Nonetheless, the overall schedule ahead favors the Mets. The question is simply whether they will accept this gift or waste it.

Photo Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

It took a long time for this to change. Over the first half of the season, the Mets’ playoff odds plateaued at 44.5 percent, when they were still 2.5 games behind the Nationals. The Nationals were underachieving the lofty expectations placed upon them, but they were still good enough to keep the projection system on which the odds were based faithful. The Mets’ low point throughout the season appeared on July 30, when their odds stood at 15.1 percent. At that point, the Nationals’ odds were an even 92 percent, just a touch lower than they began the season. The Mets were three games out of first place and had the Pirates, Giants, and Cubs ahead of them in the Wild Card race.

Because the race was so tight, however, the Mets were able to close the gap rather quickly. After July 30, the team notched seven consecutive wins, during which the Nationals lost five of seven. A three game deficit in the division turned into a 2.5 game advantage. In playoff odds terms, the Mets climbed from their season low point to a then season high 59 percent chance; the Nationals’ odds dipped below the Mets’ odds for the first time of the season, 57.4 percent. The two teams traded places a couple times over the next few days, but by August 12 the Mets had a playoff odds advantage that would remain until it was 100 percent. The promised graph:

Prior to the 2016 season, the Mets had the playoff odds advantage. They entered as favorites, with an 80.4 percent chance to make the playoffs. The Baseball Prospectus staff, informed but not determined by similar projections, collectively guessed that the Mets would win the National League East. The Nationals started at 72.3 percent playoff odds. The gap to start 2016 wasn’t nearly as large as the one in 2015. It was essentially a toss-up. The two teams flipped and flopped one another in the playoff odds advantage through May, even though the Mets only held a division lead for four days during that time. Mired together at roughly 80 percent playoff odds on May 28, the Nationals then began to separate. As the Nationals have risen, the Mets have fallen. Through Sunday—August 7, the day they pulled ahead in 2015—the Mets were at a season low 26.5 percent playoff odds.

Another difference between the arcs of 2015 and 2016 is that in 2015 the Mets had a better chance at winning the division than earning a Wild Card berth. Ultimately, the two Wild Card winners had seven and eight more wins than the NL East division-winning Mets. It’s tougher in 2016. If the 2015 chart is called joy and the second disappointment, this one might be an admission. It is, indeed, tougher this year:

And yet, the Mets are still very much alive in the Wild Card race. They’re 1.5 games out of first place. The season has felt like a disappointment only because the expectations were higher, for both the casual viewer as well as the consumer of playoff odds. There’s still time to give the season a new name.

Photo credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports