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	<title>Mets &#187; prospects</title>
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		<title>From BP: The 2017 New York Mets Top 10 Prospects</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/14/from-bp-the-2017-new-york-mets-top-10-prospects/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 14 Nov 2016 19:23:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bryan Grosnick]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[From BP]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[prospects]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2826</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Today&#8217;s a big day for us Mets fans: Baseball Prospectus has published the list of the team&#8217;s Top 10 prospects for the upcoming season. If you&#8217;re interested in who made the list, now&#8217;s a great time to subscribe to Baseball Prospectus and read this article. Our Jeffrey Paternostro–BP&#8217;s Lead Prospect Writer–writes up the team&#8217;s 10 [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Today&#8217;s a big day for us Mets fans: Baseball Prospectus has published the list of the team&#8217;s Top 10 prospects for the upcoming season. If you&#8217;re interested in who made the list, now&#8217;s a great time to subscribe to Baseball Prospectus and read this article. Our Jeffrey Paternostro–BP&#8217;s Lead Prospect Writer–writes up the team&#8217;s 10 best talents who still qualify as prospects, as well as a five more guys who are interesting for other reasons. If that&#8217;s not good enough, BP Mets&#8217; Jarret Seidler covers the franchise&#8217;s top under-25 talent (including those guys in the majors), and Ben Carsley covers the fantasy potential for all the Top 10 guys.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s a wonderful feature, and BP will be rolling these out for all 30 teams over the course of the offseason. Seriously, check these out.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=30699" target="_blank">Read all about it right here.</a></p>
<p><em>Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Minor League Mets: April In Review</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/04/minor-league-mets-april-in-review/</link>
		<comments>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/04/minor-league-mets-april-in-review/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 May 2016 10:00:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Toby Hyde]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Akeel Morris]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Amed Rosario]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brandon Nimmo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Flexen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dilson Herrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dominic Smith]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gavin Cecchini]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[prospects]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Robert Gsellman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wuilmer Becerra]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=576</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It hardly seems right that the season’s first month has come and gone, but here we are again looking at May. To be fair, April is the shortest month of the season, as the Mets minor league affiliates combined to play only 87 games in the month. So, lets take stock. What did we learn? &#8230; [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="font-weight: 400">It hardly seems right that the season’s first month has come and gone, but here we are again looking at May. To be fair, April is the shortest month of the season, as the Mets minor league affiliates combined to play only 87 games in the month. </span>So, lets take stock. What did we learn?</p>
<p>&#8230;</p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Eh, it’s still early. At this point, we’re still in wait and see mode when it comes to statistical performances.</span></p>
<h3><span style="font-weight: 400">Triple-A</span></h3>
<p><b>The “Prospects” aren’t hitting much. </b></p>
<p>In 19 games in April, Brandon Nimmo hit .260/.333/.315 with seven walks and 18 strikeouts. One pretty good sign that the season is still young: Nimmo raised his batting average 64 points in the final final five games of the month by going 8-for-17 with two doubles. Again, Nimmo is developing a platoon split, hitting nearly .300 with a .375 on-base percentage against righties while going 3-for-20 (.150) with one walk and 10 strikeouts against southpaws. If you were the kind of person who wondered whether Nimmo would have the offensive chops (both hit tool and power), to play everyday in the big leagues, April will not be terribly encouraging.  <strong><strong><br />
</strong></strong></p>
<p>The Mets decided last winter that Neil Walker made more sense at second base than handing the job to Dilson Herrera. After Walker bopped nine homers in the big leagues in April, and Herrera hit .258/.279/.364 with seven doubles and no homers in the Pacific Coast League, that looks like a wise call in hindsight. Herrera has been earning less than a walk a week (two in 17 games). That’s not a great sign given that MLB pitchers exploited his aggressiveness in 2015.</p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Meanwhile, Herrera’s double-play partner–Gavin Cecchini–had a similar batting average, but arrived at the outcome in dissimilar fashion. He showed outstanding strike zone control (11 walks/11 strikeouts) in 20 games on his way to hitting .258/.364/.333 with two doubles and one home run. Yeah, sure, shortstops don’t have to hit 20 homers a year, but at what point does below-average power become a major liability?</span></p>
<p><b>The MLB depth guys are looking more, well, depth-y</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Matt Reynolds, who’s now 25, hit .299/.379/.468 in 20 games mostly at third base with a few games at short and second. This doesn’t change any of my thinking about Reynolds, who I think would be a fine backup infielder. Should the Mets tire of Eric Campbell (1-for-10 in April), they could turn to Reynolds anytime.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Travis Taijeron, in his age-27 season, hit .299/.415/.522 with 10 extra-base hits and 20 strikeouts in 20 games. Mets fans whose memories go all the way back to Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Matt den Dekker, know what this looks like in the big leagues when a pretty good athlete in the OF strikes out this much in Triple-A. (<em>Editor&#8217;s Note: Who else can&#8217;t believe those two have regular big-league jobs today?</em>)</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Speaking of strikeouts on the mound, Gabriel Ynoa isn’t getting enough of them. His 1.48 ERA looks sparkly, but his 12/9 K/BB ratio is a duller shade. It’s just tough, if not impossible to pitch in the big leagues with a 12.3 percent strikeout rate.</span></p>
<h3><span style="font-weight: 400">Double-A</span></h3>
<p><b>Smith’s Whiffs </b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Lets compare Dominic Smith’s 2015 to his 2016.</span></p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">G</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">AVG</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">OBP</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">SLG</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">ISO</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">SO%</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">BB%</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">2015 FSL</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">118</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">.305</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">.354</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">.417</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">.112</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">15.1</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">7.0</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">2016 EL</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">20</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">.272</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">.322</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">.432</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">.160</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">24.1</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">6.9</span></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">You’re going to see versions of this chart again, friend. In his first month in Double-A, Smith is hitting for a smidge more power than he did in 2015, but his strikeout rate has climbed nine percentage points, an increase of 60 percent. That’s not good.</span></p>
<p><b>Go-Go Gsellman</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">We’re really interested in guys who are doing something differently in April than they were in the past, or than we had reason to suspect. While Smith’s strikeouts meet that criteria, so too do Robert Gsellman’s.</span></p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">ERA</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">BB%</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">SO%</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">HR%</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">15 EL</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">3.51</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">6.7</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">12.7</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">1.0</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">16 EL</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">1.82</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">9.6</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">21.7</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">0.9</span></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Here, we have an explanation as well. He’s </span><a href="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/26/the-next-mets-pitching-prospect-to-develop-a-slider-is-robert-gsellman/"><span style="font-weight: 400">learning the Warthen slider</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400">. It’s still a work in progress, but there is progress, at least enough to </span><a href="https://twitter.com/jeffpaternostro/status/726842622841622528"><span style="font-weight: 400">impress Jeff Paternostro</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> last Sunday.</span></p>
<p><b>Akeel Morris’ Heel Turn </b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Remember when Mets fans wanted to talk about this righthander from the US Virgin Islands? Well, he allowed eight runs on two homers and eight walks in 10.1 innings in Double-A in April. Yeah, yeah, #SSS and all, but if he cannot demonstrate legitimate command, upper level hitters will pounce.  </span></p>
<h3>High-A</h3>
<p><b>Rosy (Amed) Rosario </b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The 20-year-old shortstop finished April by hitting .305/.340/.537 with five triples (!) and three home runs. There’s little to critique in this line or his work at the plate. He’s also become an active presence on twitter, where he seems to enjoy engaging with fans.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">At the risk of slicing the apple too thin, he didn’t draw a walk in his first 10 games, but admitted on Twitter later in the month that he was working on his plate discipline. </span></p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en">Getting deeper into counts. Taking more walks. <a href="https://t.co/S5WRzFeT6Y">https://t.co/S5WRzFeT6Y</a></p>
<p>— Amed Rosario (@Amed_Rosario) <a href="https://twitter.com/Amed_Rosario/status/724448742686883841">April 25, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><strong><strong> </strong></strong><span style="font-weight: 400">Oh, and he finished the month by earning walks in five of his next 13 games. That’s a welcome–if not damn exciting–development.</span><strong><strong> </strong></strong></p>
<p><b>Becerra’s Singles </b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">I was excited about Wuilmer Becerra because I saw a young guy with a big league frame, who was strong and fast and already had easy power. I wondered whether he’d hit for average. And in 2016, he’s hit for average but no power. Oh, well. Through May 2nd, on the heels of an eight-game hitting streak, the 21-year-old is raking at .394/.437/.470. He leads the FSL in batting average by 49 (!) points but did not homer in the month. He’s also striking out far less than he used to. Check out the three year trends since the Appalachian League in 2014.</span></p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">XBH%</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">SO%</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">BB%</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">HR%</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">BABIP</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">ISO</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">2014 APP</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">8.3</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">24.1</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">6.1</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">3.1</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">.372</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">.169</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">2015 SAL</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">8.0</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">19.7</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">6.8</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">1.8</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">.351</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">.134</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">2016 FSL</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">6.9</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">15.3</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">6.9</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">0.0</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">.473</span></td>
<td><span style="font-weight: 400">.076</span></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Becerra the singles hitter is a lot less interesting than the guy who looked like he could threatening to hit 25 homers in a season. Still the power’s in there. The question is whether he can add it back into his more contact-driven approach.  </span></p>
<p><strong>Chris Flexen </strong></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Chris Flexen has made four starts. In each start, his opponents have only scored in one inning against him. The bad news was that in the first three starts, they hung crooked numbers on him (three runs twice and four runs once). In his fourth, he limited the damage to one run. Call it progress? Add it all up, and he’s doing ok: 3.76 ERA, 19 K/6 BB. While the 17.4 percent strikeout rate isn’t much to brag about, his 5.5 percent walk rate is a nice continuation of last year’s 5.2 percent mark with Savannah &#8230; and it is light years better (or half) of 2014’s 11.6 percent walk rate as a Sand Gnat. There’s a big league fastball in here, so that makes him one to watch.</span></p>
<h3>Low-A</h3>
<p><b>Vinny Sienna </b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">I’d be remiss not to recognize 22-year-old 2B Vinny Sienna here. The UConn product is a little old for the SAL, but he hit .362/.495/.536 in April with 19 walks against 20 strikeouts in 22 games. I’ll believe he’s a guy when he does it in Double-A.</span></p>
<p><b>Milton Ramos </b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Drafted for his defense, the shortstop hit a meager .207/.270/.259 in 18 games for the Fireflies. Meh.</span></p>
<p><b>David Thompson </b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The 21-year-old former football player is showing some pop (12 XBH in 23 games) in an April in which he hit .301/.371/.506. That’s a nice start.</span></p>
<p><b>Luck of the Irish </b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Also, lefty PJ Conlon, who is trying to become the first Irish-born big leaguer since 1945, got going in the right direction with a 1.14 ERA and an 18/1 K/BB ratio in his 23.7 innings of work. It’s worth pointing out that finesse lefties (Mark Cohoon), or really any lefties who can spin a breaking ball, can have considerable success in the SAL. Still if Conlon, who moved to California at the age of two, succeeds, we can have more examples of </span><a href="http://www.irishnews.com/sport/2015/06/27/news/cyclones-star-conlon-makes-a-pitch-for-the-majors-151692/"><span style="font-weight: 400">Irish writing about baseball</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> including such highlights as: </span>“Conlon has work to do before he lines out for the New York Mets first team.” Also, apparently his uncle was a boxing “guru” in Ireland.</p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Also, I don’t know what you’d call </span><a href="https://twitter.com/ColaFireflies/status/727197854050209792"><span style="font-weight: 400">this color </span></a><span style="font-weight: 400">(electric yellow? Neon awesome?) but it looks great on the Fireflies, and as a pleasant side benefit, surely offends the stodgiest among us.</span></p>
<p><em>Photo Credit: Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The Next Mets Pitching Prospect to Develop a Slider Is &#8230;</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/26/the-next-mets-pitching-prospect-to-develop-a-slider-is-robert-gsellman/</link>
		<comments>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/26/the-next-mets-pitching-prospect-to-develop-a-slider-is-robert-gsellman/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Apr 2016 13:34:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Toby Hyde]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[prospects]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Robert Gsellman]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=472</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The best Mets pitching prospect has a new toy, and early in the 2016 season, he’s enjoying playing with it. It’s the same toy many of the big kids already owned. Down in Double-A, in Binghamton, Robert Gsellman learned a version of the “Warthen slider” late in the 2015 season. B-Mets Pitching Coach Glen Abbott explained [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The best Mets pitching prospect has a new toy, and early in the 2016 season, he’s enjoying playing with it. It’s the same toy many of the big kids already owned. </span>Down in Double-A, in Binghamton, Robert Gsellman learned a version of the “Warthen slider” late in the 2015 season.</p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">B-Mets Pitching Coach Glen Abbott explained that the slider was  a pitch we thought he needed to have to complement his curveball, changeup and fastball. &#8220;I told him last year and we started messing with it and I talked to [Mets Pitching Coordinator Ron] Romanick and we introduced it to him late in the year.”</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">For Gsellman, the process of learning the pitch relied on touch. The key he explained was understanding that for the pitch to work he needed to make it “more like a feel, as long as I can get a good feel, with the proper mechanics to get out front and on top of it and just let the grip do its work.”</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Gsellman took the pitch home with him to Southern California and to his winter workouts at Barwis Methods in Port St. Lucie. By the accounts of coach and pupil, the offering is improving. </span></p>
<p><strong><strong> </strong></strong>Gsvllman said simply, “It’s coming along well.” Abbott was the more talkative of the pair, “It’s always gonna get better and true enough, we come to spring training and it’s better. I think it’s better now [in mid-April] than when he got to spring training even. It’s a pitch that’s gonna help him a lot.”</p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">With the Mets graduating a rotation’s worth of young studs in the last three years, the system is thinner entering 2016. Gsellman does not not the front-line potential of the guys slinging heat in Queens. However, the solidly-built righthander has a fastball that lives in the low 90s and he spots it well. He has feel for a firm changeup, but struggled with his breaking ball in 2015.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">In 2015 with Binghamton, Gsellman ran a 3.51 ERA in 16 starts over 92.1 innings with 49 strikeouts against 26 walks, an alarmingly low strikeout rate of just 13 percent.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Gsellman confessed that his curveball at the time was more like a “slurve” and was not consistent, in part due to his tendency to open his front side in his delivery. This meant that the breaking ball would stay up to his armside or he would have to “pull it.”</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Abott was blunt about Gsellman’s 2015 arsenal, “I’d almost say his breaking ball didn’t help him when he was up here [in Double-A] last year. That’s how ineffective it was. He just didn’t throw it for strikes very good. What he did was pretty much with a fastball and a changeup that was too firm.”</span></p>
<p><strong><strong> </strong></strong>Early in 2016, now with his slider and curveball, the results are promising. Through four starts, Gsellman has fanned 21.3 percent of opposing hitters on his way to a 2.19 ERA in 24.2 innings.</p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Both player and coach suggest that learning the slider has turned into a two-for-one: it has also helped his curveball. Other pitchers in the system, notably Noah Syndergaard, have made similar arguments. The Warthen slider relies on a pitcher to throw the pitch hard, almost like a fastball, and trust the subtle manipulation in the grip to deliver the necessary movement. That nuance in manipulating the ball off a pitcher’s fingers can translate into other offerings.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Gsellman explains: “I just think it’s a feel thing. With a slider you have to get out front, and with a curveball you get around it a little more and stay on top of it. I can feel it coming through my arm motion.”</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Abbott sees the transfer. “That’s what [the slider] did to the curveball, it tightened it up. Everything gets tightened up when you throw a slider, and he’s incorporated that into the curveball.”</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Gsellman and Abbott agree that he’s pitching more aggressively with more confidence in 2016. And why not? He’s got a new toy and a few good starts to begin the year.</span></p>
<p><em>Photo Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>This Week in (Minor League) Baseball, 4/7-4/12/16</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/14/this-week-in-minor-league-baseball-47-41216/</link>
		<comments>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/14/this-week-in-minor-league-baseball-47-41216/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 14 Apr 2016 09:45:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jeffrey Paternostro]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Amed Rosario]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Columbia Fireflies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gabriel Ynoa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jeff McNeil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[prospects]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Seth Lugo]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=326</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Welcome to This Week in (Minor League) Baseball, a weekly look at how Mets prospects and minor leaguers are performing. Think of it as an XL version of the mothership&#8217;s daily Minor League Update. Each week we will look at one or two players from each level who have stood out for their performance (good [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Welcome to This Week in (Minor League) Baseball, a weekly look at how Mets prospects and minor leaguers are performing. Think of it as an XL version of the mothership&#8217;s daily Minor League Update. Each week we will look at one or two players from each level who have stood out for their performance (good or bad). And remember, the least important information in this piece are the actual numbers, because for all you kids out there, we don&#8217;t scout the stat line.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">(stats from games played through 4/12/16)</span></p>
<p><b>Seth Lugo, RHP (Las Vegas 51s / AAA 4 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 5 ER, 4 BB, 3 K</b></p>
<p><b>Gabriel Ynoa, RHP (Las Vegas 51s / AAA): 5 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Mets fans gnashed their teeth and rended their garments over the “struggles” of Zack Wheeler and Noah Syndergaard in Las Vegas. Sure, their ERAs weren&#8217;t shiny, but both struck out better than a batter an inning, and neither have shown any real ill effects from pitching in that environment. The non-elite pitching prospects, however, don&#8217;t always fare as well. All contact in the desert is bad contact, and without bat-missing stuff, you end up in a ditch with Nicky Santoro. Seth Lugo and Gabriel Ynoa may have a tough time of it this year. Lugo has a curve that could rack up the strikeouts, but he has to get ahead with a fringy fastball first. Ynoa has a bit more velocity, but he has never developed even a fringe-average breaker, and he lives in the zone. Ynoa did alright in his first start, Lugo less so, but remember, the house always wins. But hey, Erik Goeddel, Gonzalez Germen, and Matt Bowman all posted 5+ ERAs on the strip, and all have gotten major league per diems.</span></p>
<p><b>Jeff McNeil, IF (Binghamton Mets / AA):</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> 3-12, HR, 2B, R, 2 RBI, 2 BB, K, SB</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Shockingly the weather hasn&#8217;t been great in the Southern Tier during the second week of April, so the B-Mets have only played half of their scheduled six games so far. McNeil has been the standout in the lineup and has driven in two-thirds of Binghamton&#8217;s runs so far. A very good high school golfer, he didn&#8217;t commit to baseball until he arrived at Long Beach State and has always been a bit rawer than you would expect from a player coming out of a well-regarded Division I program. He was always a skinny kid when I saw him over the years, albeit one who could run a bit, field a bit, and had a very pretty swing from the left side when it was in time. McNeil reportedly</span> <a href="http://www.pressconnects.com/story/sports/2016/04/08/mcneil-gsellman-power-b-mets-victory-opener/82817766/"><span style="font-weight: 400">added 35 pounds</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> this past offseason, and while that might be a bit of #BSOHL hyperbole, he does look like an average-sized baseball player nowadays. He hit a home run on opening night, and hit a go-ahead double off a lefty (he has had issues picking up the ball from southpaws in the past), and added a loud right-center warning track fly in my look on Sunday afternoon. He is passable at shortstop once a week and can handle second and third. If the newly added strength continues to translate into more game power, I don&#8217;t see much now that separates him as a prospect from say, Matt Reynolds. And McNeil still has squint-and-you-can-see-it second-division starter potential.</span></p>
<p><b>Amed Rosario, SS (St. Lucie Mets / A+):</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> 9-29, 3B, HR, 4 R, 2 RBI, 7 K, 3 SB</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">It was a little bit curious when Rosario was once again assigned to the Florida State League. The Mets made noises about keeping him out of the cold weather (and, sure, I would have preferred to spend last weekend in Florida myself), but the 20-year-old shortstop held his own as the youngest player in the league last year, and the Mets have never been shy about challenging him before. He arrived back on the scene with this:</span></p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Hello Port St. Lucie, &quot;allow me to reintroduce myself!&quot; <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/DontBeSurprisedBeReady?src=hash">#DontBeSurprisedBeReady</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/GreatTeamWin?src=hash">#GreatTeamWin</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/LGM?src=hash">#LGM</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/LoveMyTeammates?src=hash">#LoveMyTeammates</a> <a href="https://t.co/LdRF4nE5Iz">pic.twitter.com/LdRF4nE5Iz</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Amed Rosario (@Amed_Rosario) <a href="https://twitter.com/Amed_Rosario/status/718271757350739969">April 8, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">I remarked about the gains Rosario has made year-over-year in the field in his entry on the </span><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=28523"><span style="font-weight: 400">Mets Top Ten Prospect list</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400">, but he has made strides at the plate as well. He has added some good weight, and now his incredibly quick wrists are attached to a frame you could see generating real game power in the future. The hand path is still quirky, and he can get out of sync with his lower half. There is still a fair bit of swing-and-miss in his offensive profile, and he struggles to identify spin. The real test for his bat will still be the Eastern League, but we may just have to wait until it is cracking 50 degrees for a proctor.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">So like late July then.</span></p>
<p><b>The Columbia Fireflies Bullpen (Columbia Fireflies / A):</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> 17.2 IP, 8 H, 13 R, 12 ER, 15 BB, 26 K, 2 HR</span></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">At this point in my career, I don&#8217;t ask much more from A-ball bullpens than to work quickly and throw strikes. Just do what you can to minimize the late-inning mound conferences. The Fireflies pen would have elicited groans from me and the entire scout section during their first week of play. They were on the hook for three walk-off losses in the franchise&#8217;s first four games (at least kind enough to finish the job and not send it to extras I suppose), walking almost a batter an inning in the process. I shouldn&#8217;t be shocked, it&#8217;s many of the same suspects from several </span><a href="http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=t506&amp;t=g_box&amp;gid=2015_06_27_blurok_kptrok_1"><span style="font-weight: 400">bullpen</span></a> <a href="http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=t506&amp;t=g_box&amp;gid=2015_06_28_blurok_kptrok_1"><span style="font-weight: 400">blow-ups</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> that I had to sit through in Kingsport last year. At least when the manager remembered </span><a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/kingsport-mets-skipper-no-relief-thanks-lineup-gaffe-article-1.2273545"><span style="font-weight: 400">to write their names on the lineup card.</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> There are some bright spots in the pen. Tyler Bashlor is finally back on the bump after missing two full seasons after Tommy John surgery. The Mets gave him over half a million dollars as an 11</span><span style="font-weight: 400">th</span><span style="font-weight: 400"> round pick that year, and he showed an upper-90s fastball pre-surgery. If the stuff is all the way back he should overpower the South Atlantic League and could move quickly. Johnny Magliozzi is on his second UCL as well. The diminutive righty has only thrown 38 professional innings and will turn 25 in July, but he has shown a four-pitch mix out of the pen, and can ramp the fastball up into the mid-90s. Like Bashlor, he shouldn&#8217;t be long for this league, and if all goes well, he will be celebrating the quarter-century mark in St. Lucie.</span></strong></p>
<p><em>Photo credit: Steve Mitchell-USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Mets Minor League Preview: Binghamton Mets</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/08/mets-minor-league-preview-binghamton-mets/</link>
		<comments>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/08/mets-minor-league-preview-binghamton-mets/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Apr 2016 18:01:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Toby Hyde]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dominic Smith]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[prospects]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=213</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[After hitting on some of the notable Mets farmhands who will begin 2016 with the Triple-A Las Vegas 51s, today we’ll continue our tour of the minors with the Binghamton Mets of the Double-A Eastern League. This is a roster headlined by first baseman Dominic Smith, the Mets first-round pick in the 2013 draft. Behind him [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="font-weight: 400">After hitting on some of the <a href="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/01/mets-minor-league-preview-las-vegas-51s-triple-a-prospects/" target="_blank">notable Mets farmhands</a> who will begin 2016 with the Triple-A Las Vegas 51s, today we’ll continue our tour of the minors with the Binghamton Mets of the Double-A Eastern League. </span>This is a roster headlined by first baseman Dominic Smith, the Mets first-round pick in the 2013 draft. Behind him this roster looks a little thin.</p>
<h3>Dominic Smith</h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Lets talk about Mr. Smith, who will turn 21 on June 15, and who Jeff Paternostro and company named the </span><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=28523"><span style="font-weight: 400">No. 5 Mets prospect entering this season</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400">. Smith won the 2015 Florida State MVP on the strength of a .305/.354/.417 triple-slash line with 33 doubles and six home runs in 118 games. He was first in the FSL in doubles and RBI (79), fourth in both batting average and slugging percentage, and fifth in hits. The six homers are glaringly low from a well-regarded first base prospect. Simply put, he needs to get the ball over the wall more regularly to prove that he can be an above-average MLB first baseman. Otherwise, he’ll be the guy who gets to the majors, plays for a while, but is always looking over his shoulder as his team shops for an upgrade.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">He was also first in grounding into double plays, which leads us to talk about his hit tool. Where his BP writeup talks about “feel for the bat head” and a hitter who “covers the outer half well,” the discerning reader should interpret that as a hitter who is very comfortable shooting the ball the other way into left-centerfield. That’s who Smith is primarily. But he does not yet have the feel, comfort, or mechanics to drive the ball with authority to his pull side in right field. In 2015, Smith ran a .351 batting average on balls in play. Against higher-caliber defenses and pitchers, that’s likely to fall and drag his overall line down. On the bright side, his approach is relatively refined–he didn’t strike out much (15 percent k-rate) and walked at a respectable rate (seven percent walk rate). Still, he’ll need to learn to work counts and pick up a few more walks as he moves up the ladder.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Smith is young, but this is an important season for him. Everything about his profile puts pressure on his bat. He’s put on weight since his draft, and that hurts his range; that&#8217;s important because his defense has been a selling point until now. Still, first basemen are not paid on their defense. The bottom line is Smith needs to prove that he can mix excellent hand-eye coordination and a developing approach with the ability to hit the ball over the wall.</span></p>
<h3>Other Hitters</h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Jeff McNeil, who will celebrate his 24th birthday on Friday, will be hanging around the Binghamton infield at shortstop, second and third base. McNeil played very little baseball before college at Long Beach–he was an elite golfer–and in some ways is still raw. However, he runs, hits for average, and has defensive versatility. There’s not much power here and he struggles against lefties, as his mechanics go backwards against southpaws. I doubt that McNeil is an average MLB player, but I think he’s likely to play in the big leagues at some point.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">There are a pair of mid-round prospects from the 2013 draft who are running out of time to prove that they have viable big league futures. L.J. Mazzilli, the Mets fourth round pick in 2013, will play the 2016 season as a 25-year-old. He probably gets too much attention from fans at large who fondly remember his father–Lee Mazzilli–and his connection to the World Series Champion Mets of 1986. After returning from his 50-game suspension for a drug of abuse from the fall of 2014, Mazzilli hit .263/.337/.334 in 86 games in Double-A in 2015. He’s more mechanical than graceful at second base. Since he’s limited to second and teams don’t generally carry second-base-only bench guys, it’s hard to see where Mazzilli fits into a big league roster.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">A round after Mazzilli, the Mets plucked Jared King out of Kansas State, move that earned praise at the time, for its “</span><a href="http://ht.ly/lYGHu"><span style="font-weight: 400">value</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400">.” He’ll be 24 in the 2016 season coming off a 2015 season in which he hit .214/.262/.286 in 122 games in Double-A. The B-Mets ran King out there a little bit in center field last year, but he really belongs on a corner.</span></p>
<h3>Pitchers</h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">On the hill, Robert Gsellman is the team&#8217;s top hurler. I wrote about him in the Triple-A preview, but the Mets went with the less aggressive assignment for the 22-year-old by sending him back to Double-A after 16 starts at the level a year ago. </span><span style="font-weight: 400">The rotation is relatively uninteresting behind Gsellman with Tyler Pill–who was hit hard in Triple-A last year–joining Rainy Lara and friends. Not much to see here. But rather u</span>nusually for a minor league affiliate, the bullpen here in Bingo is at least as interesting as the starting rotation.</p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Akeel Morris, the little live-armed 23-year-old who made his big league debut late in 2015, returns to Binghamton. He’s put up big strikeout numbers and walked too many guys on his way through the minors to Double-A. He complements mid-90s heat with some shaky secondary offerings: a changeup and slider. The next step is to</span> tighten up one of those to complement his fastball &#8230; and learn how to avoid walking 13 percent of opposing hitters.</p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Luis Mateo excited Mets fans with 85 strikeouts and a 2.45 ERA all way back in 2012 for Brooklyn &#8230; then he blew out his elbow early in the 2013 season after one spot start for Double-A Binghamton. He was replaced in the Binghamton rotation by Jacob deGrom &#8230; so phrased </span>another way, the Mets gave Mateo a chance at Double-A before deGrom. Mateo, who has made 25 relief appearances in 2014 and 2015, has not started a game since. He made 10 appearances with Savannah in 2015, and I thought his stuff did not look as good as it did in 2012. Maybe, at age 26, he can regain that low-mid 90s fastball and biting slider. <em>Maybe</em>.</p>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">Logan Taylor returned from 2013 Tommy John surgery to pitch well for Savannah at the end of the 2014 season and then made 22 starts for High-A St. Lucie in 2015. He’s a big guy at six-foot-five who could throw in the low-90s as a starter, so the idea is that he will get a velocity boost by moving to the bullpen. That could make him interesting.</span></strong></p>
<p><em>[Yes, the minor league season started Thursday. Apologies to you friendly readers for the relative tardiness of these previews, a pressing family issue took me away from my laptop for the better part of a week.]</em></p>
<p><em>Photo Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Mets Minor League Preview: Las Vegas 51s</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/01/mets-minor-league-preview-las-vegas-51s-triple-a-prospects/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 01 Apr 2016 10:30:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Toby Hyde]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brandon Nimmo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dilson Herrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gabriel Ynoa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Smoker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Las Vegas 51s]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[prospects]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Robert Gsellman]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=105</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[While the big league regular season gets going on Sunday night, the minor leaguers have to wait until Thursday evening to begin their 2016 campaign. So, welcome to the preview for the Mets’ full-season affiliates. We’ll start close to the big leagues with the Triple-A Las Vegas 51s and move down the system to discuss [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="font-weight: 400">While the big league regular season gets going on Sunday night, the minor leaguers have to wait until Thursday evening to begin their 2016 campaign. So, welcome to the preview for the Mets’ full-season affiliates. We’ll start close to the big leagues with the Triple-A Las Vegas 51s and move down the system to discuss the Double-A Binghamton Mets and the full season Single-A affiliates in Port St. Lucie and the (new) Columbia Fireflies next week.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">There is usually little point in discussing whether a minor league team is going to be good relative to the other teams in the league. Minor league teams serve the purpose of the big league team, primarily to develop future major league-caliber players. In the case of Triple-A, the team is designed to hold depth and provide insurance for the season’s inevitable injuries and churn. My point is that in most cases, discussing a team’s composition is a fool’s errand. Instead, focus on the prospects that matter at each level.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">(Jeff Paternostro’s </span><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=28523"><span style="font-weight: 400">2016 Mets Top 10 Prospects</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> is absolutely required required reading. Relatively little has changed in the last five weeks, so in most cases, I’ll spend less time on those Top 10 guys.)</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">With relative stability on the big league staff following a successful 2015, the upper reaches of the minors saw very little churn among the field staff. The managers and coaches–like the players–aspire to reach or return to the show. The 2016 Las Vegas 51s return the same identical coaching staff as the 2015 version of the team with Wally Backman serving his fifth season as manager, Frank Viola his third as pitching coach, and Jack Voigt in his second as hitting coach. Keep this in mind: it is a matter of when–not if–Viola will get a shot as a big league pitching coach.</span></p>
<h3>Brandon Nimmo</h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Nimmo’s spring was slowed by a torn muscle in his foot. While Jeff rightly wondered if this–combined with a history of knee problems–would force Nimmo from center field to left field, I wonder if this foot injury is an indication of something else. Nimmo is one of the hardest workers in the system, and I’ve admired how he seemed to come to Spring Training in bigger and better shape than he ended the previous year. Maximizing one’s natural gifts is usually the goal. However, for guys on the margin–and Nimmo now falls into this category–the level of effort required to push their body to keep up with their more talented roster-mates can induce breakdowns.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Anyway, while Nimmo has not hit enough in the upper minors to suggest that he’s an everyday player, his platoon splits do argue strongly that he’ll find a big league job. Combining his time in Double-A and Triple-A in the 2014 and 2015 seasons, he’s run a .174/.290/.225 line in 208 PA against lefthanders with exactly zero homeruns. That’s not good. On the other hand, he’s hit .285/.369/.425 in 713 PA against righties with a 17.1 percent strikeout rate and a 10.7 percent walk rate.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">It just does not seem like that much of a stretch of imagination to see Nimmo as the left-handed half of a platoon.</span></p>
<h3>Dilson Herrera</h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">With 169 PA over the 2014 and 2015 seasons, Herrera no longer has rookie eligibility and thus does not appear on Baseball Prospectus&#8217; Top 101 or any other prospect list. Despite that, he’ll be the best Mets &#8220;prospect&#8221; in the minors to start the 2015 season, and would easily belong in a Top 101. He did enough good in 31 games in the majors in 2015 to post a 0.5 WARP while hitting .211/.311/.367 with three home runs and a pair of stolen bases &#8230; at 21 years old.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The Mets temporarily blocked Herrera’s return to the show by trading for Neil Walker to play second base, and that pushed Herrera back to Las Vegas. His primary mission will be to become a more selective hitter; he walked in just 7.7 percent of his plate appearances in Triple-A in 2015. If he hits, there could well be opportunity back in the big leagues this year. In the event that David Wright cannot play every day, and Herrera beats up on Triple-A again, the Mets could shift Walker over to third to play Herrera at second while keeping Wilmer Flores in a super-sub/Lucas Duda’s caddy vs. LHP role.</span></p>
<h3>Other Hitters</h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Jeff’s No. 4 Mets prospect, Gavin Cecchini, is headed to Vegas to start the year in his age-22 season. There’s a big leaguer in here, but probably a below-average starter. It is worth pointing out that Cecchini exhibited outstanding strike zone control in Double-A in 2015, walking in 8.7 percent of his plate appearances while fanning in just 11.3 percent, over 485 PA.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">I suppose this is the place for a quick note about outfielder Travis Taijeron, who won the </span><a href="http://twitter.com/Mets/status/715675303020892161"><span style="font-weight: 400">Mets’ John J. Murphy</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> award for top Spring Training performance by a rookie. All together now: SPRING TRAINING STATS DO NOT MATTER. Taijeron, who turned 27 on January 20, hit .274/.393/.536 in 127 games in Las Vegas in 2015. He’s patient and strong; when he connects, he can hit a ball a long way as evidenced by his 50 extra-base hits. However, this is a swing big league pitchers will exploit in a way minor leaguers can&#8217;t. He has a very deep load, with a near-armbar that will leave him vulnerable to fastballs in. Even in Triple-A, he struck out in 30.8 percent of his plate appearances. Big league pitchers will eat him alive.</span></p>
<h3>Pitchers</h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Things are a little leaner on the mound here after the Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Steven Matz parade through the upper minors in the last few years.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Instead, the “big” names in the Triple-A rotation will be a pair of pitchers with decent fastballs, reasonable command, and not quite enough breaking ball. And they both need to prove they can miss enough bats to compete as upper level starters. For all the excitement about Robert Gsellman’s hair in Spring Training, the right-hander fanned just 12.7 percent of opponents in 16 starts in Double-A during 2015 on his way to a 3.51 ERA. As Jeff noted, Gsellman has a nice potential curveball, he just does not throw it enough. Still, his future might be dialing his fastball up from the low 90s as a starter to 94ish out of the bullpen in short bursts. There’s still a chance that he’ll open up at a Double-A, rather than in Vegas.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The details are a little different for Gabriel Ynoa, but the punchline is awfully similar: with a strikeout rate of 12.9 percent in Double-A, he did not miss enough bats in 2015 to suggest that he has a future as a big league starter. Still, he can run it up to 95 at max effort, so perhaps there’s a viable reliever in here as well.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Lefty Josh Smoker, a former first round pick of the Washington Nationals, has bounced back from</span><a href="http://www.nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2016/02/how_josh_smoker_went_from_the_independent_leagues.html"><span style="font-weight: 400"> multiple shoulder surgeries</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> to find his mid-90s heat. The Mets added him to the 40-man roster in November, so it’s a pretty good bet he’ll get a look at some point in 2016 as the bullpen churns. </span></p>
<p><em>Photo Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sport</em></p>
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