But what if 2018 were the brightest timeline? The storybook would feature a first-time manager with a forward-thinking approach, a free agent who signed with his hometown nine for a discount, and a bunch of bold yet optimistic predictions coming true. At the risk of jinxing the National League’s best team to date, so far, so good. So long as we’re dreaming — the 6-1 start *is* a dream, right? — we asked the BP Mets staff to ask and answer some What-ifs? about Flushing’s favorites.

What if spinal stenosis wasn’t a thing?

David Wright was an All-Star in 2013, when he .307/.390/.514, a line that was 54% better than league average. That was his seventh Midsummer Classic appearance in eight years. Then, at age 31, Wright got old in a hurry. He stopped stealing bases, lost 140 points of SLG, and notably lost the ability to put anything behind his throws from third base. The culprit was a degenerative back condition that Wright will have to live with for the rest of his life. But what this question supposes is: What if he didn’t?

Through his first 10 seasons, Wright was a career .301/.382/.506 hitter. His seven-year peak produced 36.2 bWAR, a bit behind the pace produced by the 14 Hall of Fame third basemen. If Wright had hewed to the standard aging curve, he’d have another 15 WAR on his resume and be projected to deliver another 3 wins in 2018. Wright could well have been the next Met inducted into Cooperstown. Now he’ll have to settle for a retired number and a plaque near the Citi Field team store. – Scott D. Simon

What if the Mets were publicly owned?

After decades of PR blunders, wouldn’t it be great if the Mets were publicly owned? Years ago I imagined that the Wilpons would lose so much money from the Bernie Madoff scandal that they would be forced to sell, like the Green Bay Packers’ owners nearly a century ago. Who knows: it may be easier these days to crowdfund a Mets purchase than to find one person to buy out the Wilpons.

But what would a publicly owned team do? Would they refuse to participate in the collusion holding down free agency this offseason? Would fan-owners be asked to fork over more money for a middle reliever to replace Hansel Robles? Would the GM have to listen to #MetsTwitter’s calls to trade everybody? New owners skew towards ambitious moves or Derek Jeter-level fire sales. Maybe broad public ownership would surprise everyone by being too diffuse to make big waves, making it easier for everyone to do their jobs. – Noah Grand

What if Rafael Montero had turned into the pitcher we thought he would when he was a prospect?

It’s easy to write Rafael Montero off as a competent starting pitcher. In fact, you should do exactly that. You should have done that long before the Tommy John surgery. But for a while, he wasn’t bad. He was good. He was supposed to be better than Jacob deGrom. Imagine if Montero had been part of the Five Aces, if that legendary rotation had included one more flamethrower. It’s a weird thought, isn’t it?

Maybe Steven Matz would have been allowed to be hurt. Maybe Matt Harvey doesn’t have to try for nine innings in Game 5. Maybe Chris Flexen gets more time to develop. Prospects don’t always pan out, no matter what teams insist about a second-round draft pick that just doesn’t make signing Jake Arrieta worth it. Montero didn’t pan out. But what if he had? – Kate Feldman

What if the Mets never signed R.A. Dickey to a minor-league contract in 2010?

After throwing 64.1 mediocre innings for the Minnesota Twins in 2009, R.A Dickey signed a minor league contract with an invitation to Mets spring training. The knuckleballer would go on to start 91 games for the Mets, winning a Cy Young award in 2012 on his way to becoming one of the best starting pitchers in the game. In one of Sandy Alderson’s best moves as GM, he traded Dickey to the Toronto Blue Jays after the 2012 season for a package of players that included Noah Syndergaard and Travis d’Arnaud.

Syndergaard has developed into one of the best starting pitchers in the game as a Met, while d’Arnaud has been intermittently healthy and productive. Dickey was never able to repeat the success he had in New York, and the Mets reached the 2015 World Series with Syndergaard on the mound and d’Arnaud behind the plate.  Dickey’s success as a Met allowed the organization to build its next contender much sooner than anyone could have hoped. – Alex Rosen

What if the Mets successfully traded Wilmer Flores and Zack Wheeler to the Brewers for Carlos Gomez at the 2015 deadline?

There are so many Butterfly Effects in this multiverse. Chiefly, the Mets would’ve gotten an injury-plagued Carlos Gomez, who had an 85 OPS+ with the Astros in the second half of 2015, instead of Yoenis Cespedes (17 HR in 57 games, 155 OPS+), who supercharged the offense to such a degree that for about a week, the baseball commentariat believed he deserved to win MVP over Bryce Harper. Oh, and he led the Mets to a surprise division title and their first pennant in 15 years, and is now cararguably the Mets’ most dangerous power threat since Mike Piazza (let’s debate the merits of Carlos Beltrán another time).

Then there’s the case of the insane night where Wilmer Flores cried himself into Mets lore. If Sandy Alderson likes what he sees in Gomez’s medicals, Flores gets pulled at the appropriate juncture, sheds no (public) tears and becomes the answer to a Mets trivia question. He never even gets a chance to become one of the most indelible folk heroes in team history two days later. This is probably, not so secretly, the saddest part of this whole dystopia.

There are also the moments within these greater arcs we never get, with broad implications: Is Daniel Murphy still the same, “net negative” Met without his Ruthian postseason? Does Sandy Alderson lose his job? Are Ruben Tejada and Chase Utley friends? Question marks abound.

Admittedly, the team would be minus a Zack Wheeler and plus a Michael Fulmer, which may be the only silver lining Mets fans can enjoy in these other universes. Because what happens when the Carlos Gomez-led Mets inevitably miss the playoffs? Maybe they still sign Céspedes in the offseason and make a similar run in 2016, but who knows? The Mets we know have never been able to put it all together and ride their young, controllable pitching talent to consistent division titles, but at least they had 2015. The Mets affected by this particular butterfly didn’t, and yes, now I’m depressed. – Jordan Rabinowitz

Photo credit: Tommy Gilligan – USA Today Sports; Photo illustration: Scott D. Simon

It wasn’t the Mets

WHAT HAPPENED, THE FINAL WORD:

No set of words could accurately describe how frustrating this season has been for Mets fans. The list of things that went wrong could go on and on and on. Game 162 was no different. Rafael Montero is still Rafael Montero. Dom Smith still has some room to grow at first. Chris Flexen is also Rafael Montero. The cruelest thing that happened might have been the glimpse we got of Noah Syndergaard. The one who will surely save us all.

I say cruel because, well, we have always been aware of the demigod he is. What I don’t think anyone was prepared for, nor could they have been, was just how truly vulnerable the human body can be. Now I’m not talking about your typical bumps and bruises that happen over the course of 162 games. I’m talking the insatiable injury bug that spread the Mets clubhouse like wildfire from essentially the beginning until the end.

No matter how great or strong a team looks, injuries will bring them to their knees. Super rotation, young, old, superstar, role-player. Doesn’t matter. Now, not all were freak accidents. The Mets’ (mis)management of some led not to injury itself, but to a worse version: more serious injuries that take longer to rehab and possess the potential to affect future play. This isn’t something new, but this season it reared its ugly head.

Not everything is bad; there are positives to look forward to in 2018. Hitting the reset button on the record total will only do good, but the injury bug that plagued the team this season might be what sticks with me the most. It is why I’m a little more reserved than most might be when saying next season will be fantastic and much better than this one. There are some glaring holes, and problems that won’t be easily fixable. Logjams created by team control and underwhelming play have a role in that, but so does one of the biggest questions we have been asking for a while now: Will, and how much, is the front office going to spend this offseason to improve the roster? I don’t know the answer to that, but it is just one more reason why I’m hesitant to say 2018 will surely be better.

Who knows what this offseason will look like, what the injury situation will be, or even who the manager is. For that reason, I don’t usher out this season with an eagerness to get onto the next. Instead, while I look forward to 2018 with reserved optimism, I’ll part you with this:

Farewell, 2017, and may you rot in hell.

Photo credit: Eric Hartline – USA Today Sports

That could mean just four more games in the Terry Collins era. Seven years and one pennant later, Collins has guided the Mets to a 549-581 record, a mediocre .486 winning percentage that a third wild card berth might make competitive. The news of the day was a New York Post report that the team’s next manager will have ties to the organization. Some of the names floated don’t inspire much confidence — retreads like Robin Ventura (.463 managerial winning percentage), Bob Geren (.470) and Chip Hale (.457) — though former BP’er Keith Law’s perennial favorite candidate, Alex Cora, is also on the list.

A Mets rumor article wouldn’t be complete without accompanying snark:

I love that they use a term normally reserved for criminal suspects when referring to potential Mets managers. https://t.co/oMNKVAxp2h pic.twitter.com/PBXtTIobBk

— Craig Calcaterra (@craigcalcaterra) September 26, 2017

But wait! There’s more! Mere hours after the Post article informed readers that Sandy Alderson will advise Collins by Monday that he’ll manage the Mets no more, NorthJersey.com posted Collins’s own comments. While the Post speculated that the 68-year-old Collins would retire from baseball rather than suffer the indignity of having his contract expire, Collins insisted in the later piece that he’ll be in baseball next season — preferably with the Mets. It’s no secret that Fred Wilpon loves him some Terry Collins. He’s probably not above forcing the general manager’s hand. Optimistically, though, for those of us who are tired of watching Collins manufacture creative ways to bench Michael Conforto, if Wilpon were going to insist that Collins stay, the owner wouldn’t have allowed the manager’s contract to inch so close to expiration. He gone.

Aside from helming the 2015 NL champs and 2016 Wild Card Game loser, Collins may deserve some credit for presiding over R.A. Dickey’s 2012 Cy Young season. I’ll leave it to others to eulogize the soon-to-be-former manager, because last night’s game brought back fond memories of the knuckleballer who dominated opposing lineups for his three-year Mets career. Through six innings, Dickey demonstrated pinpoint control of the unpredictable pitch, retiring 13 straight at one point. Brandon Nimmo had two of the Mets’ five hits against Dickey, including a second-inning double that his teammates wasted. Nimmo’s second safety in the seventh immediately preceded Kevin Plawecki’s third dinger of the season. When Amed Rosario followed two batters later with a triple, Dickey’s night was over. The few Mets fans in attendance gave him a nice ovation as he departed.

Technically, Rafael Montero delivered a quality start in his season’s final appearance. Three runs in six innings, no matter what else a pitcher does, conforms to the stat’s definition. Why was Montero’s start less than quality? Let us count the ways. First, he gave up all three runs in the first two innings, putting his team into an early hole. Next, he allowed 10 baserunners in those six innings, a ratio that inspires little confidence. Finally, Montero threw his typical 100 pitches but only struck out three Braves. If Montero is anything more than Triple-A depth in 2018, whoever manages the Mets will see a bunch more games like last night’s.

Still, a quality start is “quality” because it keeps a team in the game. The Mets were able to scratch across the tying run in the eighth thanks to an error by anonymous Braves third baseman Johan Camargo. After Jeurys Familia preserved the tie in the top of the ninth, the Mets walked off thanks to a Kevin Plawecki single, a Dom Smith walk and a Travis Taijeron line drive to left that would have been caught by nearly anyone other than anonymous Braves left fielder Jace Peterson. In this battle of who could care less, the Mets scored four and the Braves only three.

Photo Credit: Noah K. Murray, USA Today Sports

It goes without saying, but Montero is not a serious rotation candidate for next year, unless the Mets’ goal is to approach 95 losses again. Montero is out of options, and with the Mets having so many marginal or questionable pitchers already penciled in for next year, coupled with an impending 40-man roster crunch this offseason, it could make sense to finally pull the trigger and DFA Montero. And while it seems something the Mets wouldn’t do—if they haven’t DFA’d yet, why would they now?—it does appear to be a logical move at the very least, given that Montero’s absolute ceiling right now appears to be a unreliable swing-man with good stuff, but poor command.

Chris Flexen and Kevin McGowan had combined for three scoreless innings in relief of Montero. They were followed by Erik Goeddel, who got absolutely shelled in the eighth inning; he gave up four runs on three home runs while only recording one out. One of the dingers he served up was Giancarlo Stanton’s 56th of the season, as Stanton continues his chase of Roger Maris’ 61 homers for seventh place on the all-time list.

Tommy Milone finished off the eighth inning, pitching in what feels like his 500th consecutive game.

On offense, the Mets didn’t do much. They mustered just two runs, the first run coming on a Travis d’Arnaud single in the fifth, and the second on a Brandon Nimmo solo homer in the seventh, after which Nimmo still couldn’t keep that dorky smile off his face, even when losing 5-2 at the time. The homer brought his wRC+ up to 122 on the year. He’s been the only real positive to take out of the last two months of this dreadful season.

And, surprisingly enough, a 122 wRC+ is also what Kevin Plawecki has managed to do in 60 plate appearances since his recall last month. The 26-year-old backstop managed two more hits yesterday, solidifying his case to be in the catching mix come next spring.

OTHER NEWS OF THE DAY

Amed Rosario is still sick, though he was back in the clubhouse today. He blamed an undercooked meal for his stomach ailment.

Sandy Alderson said it was “highly unlikely” that Matt Harvey will be in a different uniform next season. The team plans to tender him a contract.

TOMORROW:

The season winds down as the Mets begin their final homestand of the 2017 season against the Nationals. Jacob deGrom starts for the Mets against a pitcher the Nationals have not determined yet. First pitch is at 7:10 p.m.

Photo credit: Jasen Vinlove – USA Today Sports

The Marlins return for the first time in almost two weeks, forced to play three “home” games in Milwaukee over the weekend while storm-ravaged Miami continued to pick up the pieces from Hurricane Irma.

New York is 7-9 against the Marlins this season with a run differential of +1.

When and Where

Game 1: Monday @ 7:10 p.m. EST (TV: SNY; RADIO: 710 WOR, ESPN Deportes)

Game 2: Tuesday @ 7:10 p.m. EST (TV: SNY; RADIO: 710 WOR, ESPN Deportes)

Game 3: Wednesday @ 1:10 p.m. EST (TV: SNY; RADIO: 710 WOR, ESPN Deportes)

Baseball Weather

Monday: 40% chance of scattered thunderstorms with a low of 77F; Winds between 5-10 mph

Tuesday: 80% chance of thunderstorms with a low of 77F; Winds light and variable

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with a high of 88F; Winds between 5-10 mph

Probable Pitching Matchups

Monday: RHP Matt Harvey (5-5, 6.14 ERA, 5.52 DRA, .300 TAv, 0.1 WARP) vs. RHP Dan Straily (9-9, 4.24 ERA, 4.61 DRA, .273 TAv, 1.8 WARP)

Harvey took a step backwards on Wednesday at Wrigley Field, allowing five runs on seven hits and four walks over 3.1 innings. The former All-Star is now 1-2 with a 12.19 ERA in three starts since returning from the disabled list.

Straily was also hit hard his last time out, charged with eight runs on 13 hits in six innings at Citizens Bank Park.

Tuesday: RHP Seth Lugo (6-5, 5.21 ERA, 5.55 DRA, .289 TAv, 0.0 WARP) vs. TBD

Lugo was also knocked around by the Cubs, lasting just three innings and allowing eight runs (seven earned) in the loss. He will once again be limited to around 70-75 pitches.

Wednesday: RHP Rafael Montero (5-10, 5.08 ERA, 4.79 DRA, .294 TAv, 0.9 WARP) vs. RHP Jose Urena (13-6, 3.62 ERA, 4.52 DRA, .260 TAv, 1.7 WARP)

Montero lost for the first time in almost a month behind 4.2 innings of three-run ball in Atlanta on Friday night. The 26-year-old has a 3.51 ERA dating back to August 14, a span of eight appearances (seven starts) in which he has struck out 38 batters over 41 innings.

Urena did not factor in the decision in Friday night’s loss in Milwaukee, needing 101 pitches to get through 4.2 innings. A bright spot for the Marlins this season, the Dominican native is 2-3 with a 3.50 ERA lifetime against the Mets.

Who’s Hot?

Mets 1B Dom Smith (1.433 OPS with 2 HR and 6 RBIs since Wednesday)

Mets INF Asdrubal Cabrera (.556 AVG (10-for-18) during his six-game hitting streak)

Mets OF Nori Aoki (On base 6 times in last 10 plate appearances, including two doubles and a triple)

Mets 2B/SS Gavin Cecchini (4-for-8 with 2 RBIs in Braves series)

Marlins 2B Dee Gordon (4-for-8 with 2 runs scored since Saturday)

Marlins 1B Justin Bour (5-for-11 with 3 RBIs at Miller Park)

Marlins 3B Derek Dietrich (3-for-8 with a homer and 3 RBIs this weekend)

Who’s Not?

Mets OF Brandon Nimmo (1-for-11 with 5 strikeouts in Atlanta)

Mets CF Juan Lagares (.143 AVG (5-for-35 over his last 10 games)

Marlins OF Christian Yelich (2-for-20 over the past week)

Marlins RF Giancarlo Stanton (3-for-18 with no extra-base hits in his last 5 games)

When We Last Met

The Mets dropped two of three at home a month ago, winning the middle game behind six strong innings from Montero and homers by Smith, Wilmer Flores, and Kevin Plawecki.

It’s Literally a 10-Day DL

Marlins: SS Miguel Rojas left Sunday’s game early after straining his left shoulder diving for a ball.

Mets: RHP Noah Syndergaard (torn right lat) will pitch in a simulated game this week and could be activated for next weekend’s home series against Washington.

Notable Quotables

“It’s been a difficult trip, I think, for a number of reasons. Number one, obviously, I think we haven’t played well so that’s the start of it and it gets extended so it’s a little up in the air and a lot’s going on. We had guys that had to stay back for a day and then they flew in, or two days, and kind of lived through the hurricane for different reasons. You had guys with things going on, so there’s a lot going on with families and things that are back in Miami or Florida in general.” – Marlins skipper Don Mattingly on the recent road trip

“I tried to get the sinkers away from the lefties. There’s a lot of lefties in the lineup and I used my changeup and I thought it worked well.” – Mets starter Robert Gsellman discussing his win on Sunday, in which he allowed just an unearned run over seven sharp innings

“I thought I’d give him a start today, big hit for him. I thought he made some good plays at third. He’s another guy that’s had to reinvent himself a little bit. He signed as a shortstop. They moved him around the infield a little bit and he’s not a big power hitter but he’s a pretty good offensive (player). He puts the bat on the baseball.” – Mets manager Terry Collins on rookie third baseman Phil Evans, who drove in and scored his first big league runs on Sunday

Photo credit: Benny Sieu – USA Today Sports

The 2017 Mets weren’t eliminated from playoff contention until Sept. 14, two months later than the July losers Grantland Rice covered in 1914. Back then, of course, there was but one playoff spot per league, not the five we have today. The NL-leading Dodgers had a 31-game lead over the Mets entering play last night. By that measure, the Mets might well have seen their playoff odds bottom out months ago.

Anyway, that’s five straight losses, this one by the score of 3-2. Rafael Montero allowed his typical nine baserunners in fewer than five innings, while the 4-A squad’s offense couldn’t plate more than two runs. Some minor-league catcher named David Freitas had Montero’s number, scoring and driving in a run for the Braves. Montero’s gone from “terrible, shouldn’t be in the big leagues” to “innings eater for team playing out the string” in just 10 starts. Good for him?

You wouldn’t be blamed if you missed the eighth inning of last night’s game while watching the ninth in Cleveland. (Goodness knows the SNY booth’s attention was divided.) The Indians’ 22-game win streak came to an end, as they couldn’t bring a leadoff single home against former Braves southpaw Mike Minor. When Francisco Lindor struck out for the final out, the sellout crowd stood in unison and demanded a curtain call from the entire roster.

If we wait till next year, maybe the Mets will deserve an ovation or two.

Photo Credit: Brett Davis – USA Today Sports

Terry Collins’ beleaguered pitching staff made history this week by allowing 39 runs on Chicago’s North Side, the most in a three-game set in Mets history.

The rebuilding Braves have won six of eight and would surpass their 2016 win total with a sweep.

Atlanta will visit Citi Field for four games in the season’s final week, including a doubleheader on September 25.

When and Where

Game 1: Friday @ 7:35 p.m. EST (TV: SNY; RADIO: 710 WOR, ESPN Deportes)

Game 2: Saturday @ 7:10 p.m. EST (TV: WPIX; RADIO: 710 WOR, ESPN Deportes)

Game 3: Sunday @ 1:35 p.m. EST (TV: SNY; RADIO: 710 WOR, ESPN Deportes)

Baseball Weather

Friday: Partly cloudy with a low near 65F; Winds light and variable

Saturday: A few clouds with a low of 66F; Winds light and variable

Sunday: Mostly sunny with a high around 85F; Winds between 5-10 mph

Probable Pitching Matchups

Friday: RHP Rafael Montero (5-9, 5.05 ERA, 4.86 DRA, .293 TAv, 0.7 WARP) vs. LHP Sean Newcomb (2-8, 4.38 ERA, 6.16 DRA, .288 TAv, -0.5 WARP)

Montero has won each of his last three starts, holding opponents to a .194 average over 18.2 innings. His recent success has involved a bit of luck, however, as the inconsistent 26-year-old has walked 14 batters during that stretch.

Drafted 15th overall by the Angels in 2014, Newcomb made his big league debut against the Mets on June 10 — charged with the loss despite allowing just an unearned run in 6.1 impressive innings.

Saturday: RHP Jacob deGrom (14-9, 3.63 ERA, 2.77 DRA, .242 TAv, 5.9 WARP) vs. RHP R.A. Dickey (9-9, 4.28 ERA, 5.25 DRA, .281 TAv, 0.6 WARP)

The only steady presence in an injury-plagued rotation, deGrom rebounded from a drubbing at the hands of Philadelphia to hurl six innings of two-run ball against the Reds on Sunday, striking out 10 in the process.

Dickey faces his former club for the third time this season, earning the win in both starts behind a mediocre 4.09 ERA (5 ER in 11 IP, including 3 HR). The former Cy Young Award winner has been rocked the past two times out, allowing 12 runs (11 earned) in 9.1 innings.

Sunday: RHP Robert Gsellman (6-7, 5.58 ERA, 6.22 DRA, .317 TAv, -0.7 WARP) vs. RHP Julio Teheran (11-11, 4.57 ERA, 4.33 DRA, .276 TAv, 2.4 WARP)

Gsellman took the loss in Chicago on Tuesday, charged with four runs in four innings pitched.

Teheran has won four straight behind a 2.08 ERA (6 ER in 26 IP), striking out 20 during the streak. The two-time All-Star is 1-1 with a 3.33 ERA in four starts against the Mets this season.

Who’s Hot?

Mets INF Asdrubal Cabrera (.560 AVG (14-for-25), 1.371 OPS over his last eight games)

Mets SS Amed Rosario (6-for-11 in Cubs series)

Mets INF Jose Reyes (.375 AVG since Sunday with 4 RBIs and 4 runs scored)

Braves OF Lane Adams (2 singles, 2 walks, a triple and a home run in his last 8 plate appearances)

Braves 2B Ozzie Albies (.340 AVG (17-for-50) with 2 homers and 9 RBIs during 12-game hitting streak)

Braves C Kurt Suzuki (8-for-17 over his last four starts)

Who’s Not?

Mets OF Nori Aoki (2-for-17 this week)

Mets CF Juan Lagares (4-for-24 (.167) in his last seven games)

Braves SS Dansby Swanson (.125 AVG (2-for-16) since last Friday)

When We Last Met

The Mets won three of four at SunTrust Park in early June, losing the series opener on Rio Ruiz’s walk-off single against Josh Edgin. New York’s starting pitching was key, including dominating performances by Gsellman, Steven Matz and Seth Lugo.

It’s Literally a 10-Day DL

Braves: 1B Matt Adams (right hamstring tightness) appeared as a pinch-hitter in the series finale at Nationals Park, his first game action since Sunday.

Mets: RHP Noah Syndergaard (torn right lat) was expected to throw a bullpen session on Thursday. INF/OF T.J. Rivera underwent Tommy John Surgery on Thursday to repair a partial tear of the UCL in his right elbow. SS Amed Rosario left Thursday’s game early due to a tight hip flexor. He is day-to-day. C Travis d’Arnaud was also pulled mid-game after twisting his right knee, but should be available for Friday’s series opener.

Notable Quotables

“Our bullpen, for the most part, has done a pretty good job. Actually we’ve pitched pretty good lately. We just did not pitch very well here… Hopefully our bullpen can pull together and get us going a little bit.” — Mets manager Terry Collins following the Cubs series

“I was struggling with both breaking balls, both of them I elevated too much over the plate. My fastball was all right. I’ve just got to be better at making an adjustment to go to pitches that are working, figure that out sooner… It’s been a rough season for me. It’s been a rough season for a lot of guys but I feel like lately I’ve been throwing the ball well, not so much tonight, but I’m going to try to go back to what I was doing the last few weeks and finish the season strong.” — Lugo, who was rocked for eight runs (seven earned) over three innings in Thursday’s loss

Photo credit: Brett Davis – USA Today Sports

See? I didn’t even trick you with some bogus stat like “pitcher xFIP in the 6th inning on Tuesdays during 100% totality.” The statistic listed in this leaderboard from baseballsavant.com is average exit velocity, and it’s the pitcher counterpart to the number we often see paired with Giancarlo Stanton’s monster home runs.

I don’t think I need to explain exit velocity much more, but this means that, on average, Rafael Montero allows batted balls hit softer than Clayton Kershaw does. Even though Montero has been better as of late with a 3.22/3.56/4.98 ERA/FIP/xFIP over the last month, this still comes as a huge surprise. Limiting hard contact sure feels like a valuable skill, but is it? Let’s take a look.

To start, I ran a simple correlation between exit velocity and ERA in 2017. It’s not groundbreaking stuff, but it’s a necessary stepping stone in the process. Here’s the result:

So there’s certainly some relationship, but it’s far from conclusive. It’s clear here that Montero is a significant outlier, which invites further exploration. On baseball savant.com, there’s a few more exit velocity-related statistics to play around with. Feel free to check them out for yourself here. Using these other metrics, I did a quick check to see if any of them are better estimators of ERA than just exit velocity. Below are the r-squared values for the other stats:

While average exit velocity is good, it seems like this “barrels” statistic might be on to something even better. Barrels are defined by MLB.com as balls struck at an exit velocity greater than 98 MPH, and having a launch angle roughly between 26-30 degrees. There’s a bit more nitty-gritty to it, which you can check out here, but that’s the general idea. Let’s see where Montero falls on this graph.

While he doesn’t quite lead the league in this metric, he’s still well above the average. That’s promising for Montero, but here’s another thought: maybe metrics like exit velocity and barrels, similarly to BABIP, are mostly related to luck and aren’t particularly indicative of any skill.

Despite Clayton Kershaw residing towards the top of the original leaderboard, there were some curious names, after all. To solve the question, I looked at pitcher exit velocity for 2016 and 2017 to see if it was a repeatable skill.

We keep being teased with significant, but not substantial relationships. An r-squared of 0.24 is nothing to scoff at, but there’s also a lot of room for error here. Usually, I’d hang my head and declare that we can’t possibly know if Rafael Montero will continue to limit hard contact. However, we do have a bit data on Montero dating back to 2015, so let’s examine his past exit velocity performances.

Even when Montero has been at his absolute worst (2015 and 2016), he’s always been at least above-average in exit velocity. Is that an encouraging sign? Probably not. If this is the 99th percentile version of Montero that we’re seeing these days, that’s not great. If this happens to be a repeatable skill that can be replicated along with meaningful improvements in other areas (read: control), then there may be hope for Montero. Until then, we’ll take pleasure in knowing that Clayton Kershaw can’t hold a torch to Rafael Montero when it comes to average exit velocity.

 Photo credit: Gregory Fisher – USA Today Sports

Any time a pitcher is among the league leaders in walks, we probably imagine they are a “Wild Thing” like Ricky Vaughn from Major League. Some pitchers can be pretty effective even if they don’t quite know where the ball is going. When it comes to real life wild things, we expect inconsistency. Sometimes the pitcher knows exactly where the pitch is going and they get a strikeout. Sometimes they throw it to the backstop. Montero stands out because his walks are so consistent and predictable. He has the walks, but rarely flashes the upside and potential of other young starters with high walk rates.

Montero’s last batter sums up his approach pretty well. The Mets led 2-1 in the top of the fifth. Montero must have known he needed to be more efficient to go beyond the fifth, but he didn’t change his approach. With one on and two outs, he threw four straight changeups to Scott Schebler. Three of the changeups were out of the zone. Montero wanted to end his outing on a “perfect” pitch and kept nibbling out of the strike zone. Down 3-1, he threw a slider and managed to get a ground ball to end the inning.

That’s what we get in a relatively good Montero outing. He didn’t leave any mistakes over the middle of the plate. He didn’t hang any breaking balls. Montero seemed to be going out of his way to avoid the strike zone. He carried himself like a pitcher who was executing his game plan. His game plan was just so risk averse that Reds’ hitters could stare at ball four and take their free base.

We’ve all seen young pitchers who were wild to start their big league careers, then learn some command. Randy Johnson started his career with so little command that the Expos gave up on him before he blossomed into a Hall of Famer (editor’s note: This is not to imply that Rafael Montero is a future Hall of Famer). Montero had a few good starts, but for the most part he looks like the exact same pitcher he was when he got called up in 2014. He seems so afraid of big league hitters that he refuses to enter the strike zone any more than possible.

When I watched Robert Gsellman earlier this season, I didn’t get the same feeling. Gsellman was clearly trying to throw a sinker with more downwards break than lateral break. However, he couldn’t get that pitch to move like it did in 2016. The sinker was always flat. He either hung his slider or missed well out of the zone. Watching Gsellman, it was clear that the ball was not going where he intended it to go. That’s a mechanical issue that some pitchers can fix. Watching Montero last night, it felt clear that there is no obvious mechanical fix to improve his command.

Kevin Plawecki gave the Mets all the offense they would need with a two-run homer in the second. Dom Smith added a clutch two-out run in the sixth, and the Mets tacked on three more in the seventh to put the game out of reach. Phil Evans, who won the AA Eastern League batting title in 2016, got his first big league hit with a hustle double down the third base line.

It wouldn’t be a Mets game without some bizarre managing, and Terry Collins gave us another head-scratcher in the seventh. Matt Reynolds was hit by a pitch to start the inning. Travis Taijeron was on deck, but Collins pulled him back and asked Jacob deGrom to pinch bunt. A day after Milwaukee’s Jimmy Nelson hurt his rotator cuff running the bases, I can’t see why the Mets would risk deGrom with additional play in the field. If Taijeron isn’t good enough to play on a depleted roster, why is he on the 40-man roster? Then again, this is the team that keeps starting Jose Reyes instead of seeing if Gavin Cecchini can play. deGrom ended up walking and Amed Rosario came in as a pinch runner.

What’s Next?

The Mets look for a sweep against the Reds. Tanking is harder than it looks.

Photo credit: Andy Marlin – USA Today Sports

Big Bats Came To Play

The Mets had a unique connection to the opposing starter, Mark Leiter. You may remember his uncle, a guy who won 95 games as a Met and helped win them a pennant, by the name of Al. Nevertheless, the Mets did not show the Leiter family any love Monday. The offense was potent right out of the gate and exploded to a 10-0 lead through the sixth inning. Contributions came from all directions, as six different Mets recorded an RBI: Jose Reyes, Nori Aoki, Asdrubal Cabrera, Brandon Nimmo, Juan Lagares, and Gavin Cecchini. It may just be a product of facing the Phillies, but any time you see an offensive explosion featuring mostly young, no-name players, it’s always a pleasant surprise.

Have A Day, Young Man

Nimmo had a tremendous day at the plate, one of his best efforts this season. Posting three hits, two of which were RBI singles, and a run scored, Nimmo looked like the player we all dreamt of when the Mets selected him 13th overall in the 2011 MLB Draft. It’s hard to get a clear picture of what Nimmo’s role will be with this team beyond 2017, but if he continues to swing the bat well, he could easily write his way into the team’s 2018 plans. The uncertainty surrounding Michael Conforto and when he will be able to return from that freak shoulder injury will open up a good amount of at-bats (as long as the Mets don’t bring in anyone in free agency). Depending on how far his bat comes along, Nimmo could see significant playing time in a corner outfield role.

Will The Real Raf Please Stand Up?

If somehow we’ve accidentally slipped into an alternate universe where Rafael Montero is actually a competent Major League pitcher, then I’m okay with staying here for a while. Montero’s final line looks average at best, but he cruised through this game and didn’t have to do too much after being staked to such a big lead. Montero went 5.1 innings with three strikeouts, five walks, and four earned runs surrendered, but keep in mind he shut down the Phillies through the first four. When you couple yesterday’s effort with his last start, where he tossed 8.1 innings giving up only three hits, it kind of makes you wonder whether the often-criticized Montero is finally taking a turn. Is it possible? Probably not. Then again, I’m one of the biggest Rafael Montero haters on the planet, so take my word with a grain of salt.

Cabrera’s Audition Continues

Figuring out who can possibly be their full-time third baseman is one of the biggest questions the Mets face entering 2018. David Wright is now undergoing rotator cuff surgery and was a long shot to ever be a competent starter again. Jose Reyes is a poor defender at the hot corner and hasn’t done much with the bat to warrant a return to the Mets next season. Wilmer Flores could be an option, but we’re talking about another below average defender who doesn’t exactly dominate right-handed pitching. And at the bottom of the list, we really don’t know if Matt Reynolds or Gavin Cecchini has what it takes to be a Major League starter and I don’t think we’ll come any closer to finding out from now to the end of September. That leaves Cabrera, who has become the de facto third baseman since Amed Rosario arrived. Short of bringing in an established free agent like Mike Moustakas, I think it’s safe to say returning Cabrera on his team option is the best choice if this team wants to compete in 2018. Cabrera’s return to the Mets will be a polarizing issue, but the devil you know is better than the devil you don’t. Cabrera occupied the three hole Monday and launched a two-run homer over the centerfield fence, scoring Nori Aoki.

His inexperience at third also showed in the third inning when he committed a throwing error that allowed Cameron Rupp to reach second. There’s no simple solution and September will be a good indicator of whether he can be a competent full-time third baseman, but I’m willing to set aside his defense to have an experienced switch-hitting veteran like Cabrera in the lineup.

Mixed Results From the Bullpen

It’s hard to place stock in the performance of relievers in meaningless games, but at the end of the day this game is about one thing: getting outs. A bullpen is an emotional rollercoaster for any team, but when you watch guys like Paul Sewald and Hansel Robles flash signs of success, it hurts even more when they struggle. Yesterday, Sewald gave up two hits and earned run in two thirds of an inning of work, while Robles surrendered two runs on three hits in 1.2 innings of work. The game was never really in question thanks to a big lead, but if these guys want to be foundational pieces to this bullpen in 2018, they need to show how reliable they can be now. Oh, and Jerry Blevins added another scoreless inning to his spectacular season.

What’s Next

The Mets continue their series against the Phillies at Citi Field tonight at 7:10. Jacob deGrom takes the mound, facing off against Ben Lively of the Phillies.

Photo credit: Gregory Fisher – USA Today Sports