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	<title>Mets &#187; ready for 2017</title>
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		<title>Our September Plans (Since the Mets Aren&#8217;t Making the Playoffs)</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/29/our-september-plans-since-the-mets-arent-making-the-playoffs/</link>
		<comments>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/29/our-september-plans-since-the-mets-arent-making-the-playoffs/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Aug 2016 10:00:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Mets Staff]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Lineup Card]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ready for 2017]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2111</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[How quickly the tide turns. One year ago today, we luxuriated in a Washington Nationals collapse. From July 29 to August 29, 2015, the Mets leapt from two games back to 5.5 games ahead in the National League East standings. This season, the Mets have suffered death by a thousand cuts. Matt Harvey&#8217;s rib. David Wright&#8217;s spine. [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>How quickly the tide turns. One year ago today, we luxuriated in a Washington Nationals collapse. From July 29 to August 29, 2015, the Mets leapt from two games back to 5.5 games ahead in the National League East standings. This season, the Mets have suffered death by a thousand cuts. Matt Harvey&#8217;s rib. David Wright&#8217;s spine. Lucas Duda&#8217;s back. Steven Matz&#8217;s elbow (and Thor&#8217;s, and Zack Wheeler&#8217;s). Yoenis Cespedes&#8217;s quad. Terry Collins&#8217;s &#8230; <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0g9_wfkYjfo" target="_blank">reason and accountability</a>. I&#8217;m not sure whether to laugh, cry, or just thank Erik Malinowski for creating and deploying the &#8220;ready for 2017&#8243; tag on this site last Tuesday.</p>
<p>Stuck in limbo, nine games out of the division lead and three games out of the Wild Card, but not nearly bad enough to <a href="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/23/sit-syndergaard-or-let-it-ride/" target="_blank">shut down Syndergaard</a> and deGrom or, God forbid, promote <del>Dilson Herrera</del> Michael Conforto to play everyday, the Mets are about to become unwatchable for a month. <a href="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/28/game-recap-august-27-home-run-cycles-and-playoff-dreams/" target="_blank">Playoff dreams</a> aside, our dedication to watching all 162 games is waning. Here&#8217;s what we&#8217;re going to do instead. &#8212; Scott D. Simon (<a href="http://twitter.com/scottdsimon" target="_blank">@scottdsimon</a>)</p>
<h3>Wait for a BP-Mets Call-Up</h3>
<p>As rosters expand in September, a handful of new faces will enjoy cups of coffee, basking in the glow of their first major league appearances. Like them, I serve as a depth piece. A quiet backup-recap addition in July, I waited in the wings as I watched the writers of the BP-Mets team put together a season worthy of the playoffs. Unfortunately, good #content does not win actual games, and the baseball-playing Mets have fallen short of the postseason. As the Mets ponder how to use their extra 15 players and whether or not to shut down Noah Syndergaard, I sit ready to provide similar relief to the BP-Mets starters for their September activities. If not, the irony here is that this post is my cup of coffee, but let us not dwell on the specifics. &#8212; Brock Chenier (@<a href="http://twitter.com/BrockChenier" target="_blank">BrockChenier</a>)</p>
<h3>Build a City If Not a Team</h3>
<p>Around a year ago, I realized no amount of coffee would wake my brain up enough to teach statistics at 8 in the morning. (Low man on the totem pole can’t choose a better time slot.) I started playing games like Ticket to Ride and Stone Age on the bus to be alert. It turns out I enjoy the board games more than fantasy baseball. I get bad luck in board games, just like fantasy sports or real life teams. It’s so easy to think about what could have been with the 2016 Mets. I’m not giving up hope yet. But board games help me focus on enjoying plays going forward instead of looking back at what could have been. So I will be playing a lot of Carcassonne (Keith Law’s <a href="http://meadowparty.com/blog/2010/12/22/carcassonne-app/" target="_blank">top ranked</a> board game) while I have the Mets on TV next month. &#8212; Noah Grand (<a href="https://twitter.com/noahgrand" target="_blank">@noahgrand</a>)</p>
<h3>Attend Lousy Mets Games</h3>
<p>There&#8217;s something magical about a packed stadium of cheering fans watching a dominant team. But some aspects of success are&#8230;less than magical. The line for the bathroom. Running out of giveaways an hour before game time. Not even attempting to purchase any food item other than a hot dog. The on-field product may be top-notch, but the off-field experience leaves something to be desired.  As the Mets spend September drifting away from a playoff spot, I will be there watching them whenever I can. If I can&#8217;t have quality baseball, I&#8217;ll take quantity. $5 Ceasar&#8217;s Club tickets on StubHub? 5 minute wait for Shake Shack? I&#8217;ll be partying like it&#8217;s 2013. Besides, watching mediocre baseball is infinitely more palatable in-person than on-screen. This is a documented scientific fact. &#8212; Maggie Wiggin (<a href="https://twitter.com/maggie162" target="_blank">@maggie162</a>)</p>
<h3>Write a Book</h3>
<p>I&#8217;m ankle-deep into writing a book on the <a href="http://nofungoes.com/post/143540288679/warriors-book" target="_blank">rise of the Golden State Warriors</a>. I really should be up to my waist or something by now, but the Mets kept me mightily entertained for a wee stretch of summer. Alas, without a winning month since April, this season has steadily slid away as a lost opportunity. So now I get to play catchup and make sure that my publisher gets a manuscript (due at the end of the year) that&#8217;s both on time and displays some modicum of coherence. Another life-altering Mets playoff run would&#8217;ve distracted from all that, so I&#8217;ll see y&#8217;all in spring training, many thousands of mostly adequate words from now. &#8212; Erik Malinowski (<a href="https://twitter.com/erikmal" target="_blank">@erikmal</a>)</p>
<h3>Build a Bar Out Of An Old Upright Piano</h3>
<p>I am a homeowner now, and while there is a sense of relief that comes after moving eight times in ten years (for all you kids out there, don&#8217;t marry an academic), there is also a never-ending list of things to buy and fix. Paint is really expensive, you guys. Now I already have an old liquor cabinet, a vintage bar cart, and a floor model servery I snagged from a Raymour and Flanigan outlet. But this might shock you, dear readers, that won&#8217;t quite hold all my glassware and liquor (although the small shelves on the servery do hold a lot of fancy bitters). My wife happened to come across a literal piano bar on Pinterest, as one does, and I’m just stupid and handy enough to think that could be cool. It is very much a weekend project, and with the Mets only on the periphery of the race, I can use power tools without being worried about losing a finger or two after having to listen to Howie and Josh describe a completely inexplicable Terry Collins move. &#8212; Jeffrey Paternostro (<a href="https://twitter.com/jeffpaternostro" target="_blank">@jeffpaternostro</a>)</p>
<h3>Obtain and Domesticate a Capybara</h3>
<p>There are few objective truths in life. One of them is that the capybara is the most adorable, cuddly animal on the planet. Its perpetually expressionless face belies a body completely covered in thick fur that one would be remiss not to want to hold close. Some people would reject capybara ownership solely because it&#8217;s the world&#8217;s largest rodent. But not I! In waiting out the remainder of the season, as the Mets engage in the push-and-pull of a .500 record that puts them barely in playoff contention, I will be researching the logistics behind domesticating and keeping a capybara as a pet. Maybe they can&#8217;t be kept as pets. Maybe they can. This is what I will try to find out. Because what better way to calm yourself down after an emotional baseball season of disappointments (and a Bartolo homer) than caressing a furry creature? &#8212; Brian Duricy (<a href="https://twitter.com/@briansusername_" target="_blank">@briansusername_</a>)</p>
<h3>Stress Over Work Instead Of the Mets</h3>
<p>September for both my job and life revolving around the Mets can be a stressful time period. At work, it is the time when everything for my job is due and therefore requires a lot of late-night and weekend work. For my personal life, the stress comes from watching the New York Mets wondering if they can make it into the playoffs. This year,, I will only have to deal with stress from work, as the Mets are unlikely to grab the second Wild Card, especially with San Francisco and St. Louis in the lead. Therefore, my September will be spent focusing on getting work done and not stressing over the Mets. Although watching the Mets in September can actually be more fun not having to stress over the results, instead just enjoying watching young talent like Robert Gsellman and whomever the Mets call up on September 1st. &#8212; Seth Rubin (<a href="http://twitter.com/sethrubin" target="_blank">@sethrubin</a>)</p>
<p><em>Photo Credit: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Sit Syndergaard or Let It Ride?</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/23/sit-syndergaard-or-let-it-ride/</link>
		<comments>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/23/sit-syndergaard-or-let-it-ride/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 23 Aug 2016 14:44:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Erik Malinowski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Noah Syndergaard]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ready for 2017]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2080</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When Noah Syndergaard broke into the majors early last season, it was a seismic event for the Mets. With him in the shorthanded rotation, given the loss of Zack Wheeler in spring training to Tommy John surgery, the Mets played well enough in the first half to stay competitive and then steamrolled through to the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=67132">Noah Syndergaard</a> broke into the majors early last season, it was a seismic event for the Mets. With him in the shorthanded rotation, given the loss of Zack Wheeler in spring training to Tommy John surgery, the Mets played well enough in the first half to stay competitive and then steamrolled through to the NL East title and, eventually, their first World Series appearance in 15 years.</p>
<p>And I remember the moment that it started to feel inevitable, like maybe 2015 was the season when everything finally wouldn’t all go to hell. It was August 2, a Sunday night game on ESPN, and Syndergaard was sensational in eight innings of work. His fastball looked unhittable all night, especially with <a href="http://m.mlb.com/video/v325797383/wshnym-syndergaard-strikes-out-harper-to-end-frame/">Bryce Harper flailing at his final offering</a> to end the eighth. That win wrapped up a sweep of Washington, tied up the division, and the Mets took a one-game lead over the Nats the next day that they never relinquished.</p>
<p>The circumstances were quite different this past Sunday night, when Syndergaard put in another sterling effort, but his performance gave off that whiff of what every Mets fan felt at Citi Field a year ago. With <a href="http://m.mlb.com/video/v1079945083/nymsf-syndergaard-blanks-giants-in-superb-outing/">eight seemingly effortless innings of dominance</a> over a struggling San Francisco squad, Syndergaard showed that, even when compromised with that nagging bone spur in his elbow, he can still perform like one of the best pitchers in the National League.</p>
<p>I wrote last week about how <a href="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/16/saving-steven-matz-may-mean-shutting-him-down/">Steven Matz should simply be shut down</a> for the remainder of the year because the Mets are no longer realistically playing for anything beyond the original 162, and I feel the same about Syndergaard. Even more so than Matz, Syndergaard is <em>the</em> cornerstone for the future and the team would be foolish to play games with his long-term health. Going into Monday night, the Mets are a .500 club that is actually outplaying its Pythag by a game and remains the third team on the outside looking in on the NL Wild Card hunt. This isn’t the year for this team and they simply don’t need to see any more from Syndergaard to know what they have, and what they have is a dominant No. 1 ace-type pitcher, so long as they don’t screw him up.</p>
<p>But at this point, it’s a fine time to see just how much better Syndergaard has pitched this year as opposed to his rookie campaign. He pitched 150 innings and faced 603 batters last season; he’s up to 148 and 602 respectively in 2016. He made 24 regular season starts both last season and now this. So the time is perfect to see what’s happening with Syndergaard’s results both then and now.</p>
<p><strong>2015:</strong> 2.98 DRA, 79 cFIP, 10.0 K/9, .279 BABIP, 166 K, 5.35 K/BB</p>
<p><strong>2016:</strong> 2.71 DRA, 68 cFIP, 10.8 K/9, .343 BABIP, 177 K, 5.53 K/BB</p>
<p>The inflated BABIP is a direct result of Syndergaard cutting his dingers allowed down from 19 to 9. (Those balls have now become doubles, which increased from 17 to 30.) But his <a href="http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/fnS8A">historically good K/BB ratio from his rookie season</a> has only improved, as his strikeouts have gone up even as his command has stayed roughly the same. (You could even presume that his walks might even be a touch lower without the bone spur.) His groundball rate is up; the flyball rate is down. Almost everywhere you look, there’s improvement in Syndergaard’s peripherals—he should be a top-five vote-getter for NL Cy Young, and I couldn’t care less <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/noah-syndergaard-has-a-major-problem/">how many steals he allows</a>—and he has firmly established himself as the undisputed ace of Dan Warthen’s stable of starters.</p>
<p>Which is exactly why the Mets need to be extraordinarily careful with Syndergaard. He’s still below last year’s mark for innings pitched, but the bone spur means he’s compromised. With a little luck, the Mets can likely enter next Opening Day with a rotation featuring Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, Matz, Matt Harvey, and Wheeler. That’s a rotation that doesn’t keep you up at night, and with those five rested and recovered the Mets could be the favorites in the division once again. But that means making smart decisions now. When Terry Collins pulled Syndergaard on Sunday night with 98 pitches thrown, it felt like <a href="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/10/looks-like-our-time-is-up-terry-collins/">the most logical move he’s made in weeks</a>. But the Mets need to take that logic and expand it to a higher degree, and if that means effectively punting on the season with still six weeks remaining, so be it.</p>
<p>It’s too easy to think that it’s fine to let Syndergaard ride this season out to its inevitable endpoint, that his <a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=592789&amp;b_hand=-1&amp;time=month&amp;minmax=ci&amp;var=mph&amp;s_type=2&amp;gFilt=&amp;pFilt=FA%7CSI%7CFC%7CCU%7CSL%7CCS%7CKN%7CCH%7CFS%7CSB&amp;startDate=01/01/2016&amp;endDate=01/01/2017">recovery of lost velocity</a> from earlier in the season means he’s good to go until the season’s last day. That’s what pitchers tell managers to let them stay in ballgames, but managers need to manage better than that. But this ultimately needs to come from Sandy Alderson, and it needs to come quick. Winning in 2017, in many ways, means treating that season like it’s already here.</p>
<p><em>Photo Credit: Lance Iversen-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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