Harol Gonzalez, RHP

The trend of my only seeing the best Harol Gonzalez starts continues. I watched him almost toss a perfect game in Kingsport a couple years back, then he spun six hitless frames last summer in Norwich. This time, despite getting knocked around more than I expected so far in the South Atlantic League, he cruised through seven innings, carving up the Lakewood lineup and featuring improved stuff across the board. Gonzalez has filled out some since my wife confused him for a ball boy in the Appalachian League. He’d still generously be referred to as an undersized righty, but the added bulk—and a couple mechanical tweaks—has given him more velocity, and he’s holding his stuff deeper into games than I’ve seen in the past. He touched 93 a few times and sat 89-92, which is a couple ticks higher than the past two seasons. He held the low 90s velo through 100 pitches, and the heater has more plane than I’ve seen in the past. I think it’s possible they’ve tweaked his armslot up to high-three-quarters, but I don’t have any video to check this theory against. Regardless, it’s a much better pitch now and his above-average command is still present.

Gonzalez has a full repertoire of offspeed pitches. The change is still his best secondary offering. He’s thrown a distinct traditional change and split before—and I believe he still does—although they bled together more than they have in past looks. The cambio ranged from 81-84 with the split action showing at the upper range of the velo band. Overall, the pitch shows good sink and fade and he maintains his arm speed well. He added a cutter/slider type thing, which sits 86-87 and features good late tilt, last year in Brooklyn. There is above-average command here too, and it works especially well off his sinking fastball. The curve is tighter that what he’s showed in past years, but it’s still a bit of a big, loopy breaker. He’s usually shown a tighter 12-6 ones in warmups, and this outing broke off a few of those in game action as well. He can keep the tight shape when spotting it for a strike, which is unusual at this level.

So the stuff has improved across the board. Gonzalez’s prior calling cards are still here too: advanced pitchability and the confidence to throw any of his pitchers in any count or game situation. There’s potentially four average or better offerings here now and plus makeup/mound smarts to help the arsenal play up.. Still, it’s a difficult profile: he’s a short, lean righty who has to make it as a starter to have a real major league role, as there isn’t an obvious bullpen fit for this profile. In the past I have pegged him as one of my acquire 3s, but that feels light now.

Desmond Lindsay, OF

There have been some furrowed brows and tweets of concern from #MetsTwitter about Lindsay’s slow start, but he looks like the same dude we ranked #5 preseason for good and for ill. The most important thing for Lindsay is he looks healthy. He moved well in center field and on the basepaths. When I saw him last season in Brooklyn, he was clearly compromised by his hamstring issues so it was difficult to get a feel for the athletic profile, although he *ahem* certainly looked the part. But now he looks like a decent bet to stick in center with more reps, and his jumps and routes compared well to his up-the-middle counterpart in Lakewood, Mickey Moniak. I didn’t get a useable home-to-first dig, but he’s clocked as a plus runner for me before and I have no reason to think that isn’t still the case. At the plate, he has quick hands that generate plus bat speed, although his eventual over-the-fence power may be limited by minimal loft and an all-fields approach. He is a strong kid though, and should yank enough mistakes to find 10+ home run power at his peak due to his average raw pop. Lindsay struggled with the more polished breaking stuff you see at this level, but overall I liked the plate approach. What he needs now more than anything else is pro reps, and I could see him having a decent second half as he continues to adjust to a full-season assignment, even if the final stat line—and don’t scout the statline—is unlikely to look too shiny given his slow start. I don’t see a reason to downgrade him at this point, although he is remains a very high risk prospect.

Luis Carpio, IF

My fondness for Carpio is well-documented. Labrum surgery derailed his 2016 season save for a few August DH appearances. He’s playing mostly second base now, and the arm was going to be stretched at short even pre-surgery. He might be a plus second base glove though, due to his excellent instincts and smooth, quick actions. The move to the right side of the infield puts more pressure on the bat though, and the early returns were a little disappointing. He’s just a bit over a year removed from going under the knife, but while his strong approach and contact skills are still present, the ball doesn’t jump off the bat the same way it did in Kingsport, and the bat speed looked fringy. That may come back, but it may not. There’s less physical projection now too as he’s filled out in the last two seasons. He’s quite young for the level, and I still think he’s the kind of polished player that will do enough at every stop to keep you dreaming on a major league future. But until the line drives get louder, Carpio looks more like a fringe utility guy than the potential regular of two years ago.

Blake Taylor, LHP

The player-to-be-named later in the Ike Davis deal—a trade that feels like it happened three full lifetimes ago for Mets fans—Taylor is still somehow only 21. In the interim, he’s struggled with performance and injuries, lost a year to Tommy John surgery, and finally made it to full season ball four seasons after being drafted. There isn’t much projection left at this point; Taylor has a mature frame with thick legs, but there’s enough stuff here at present to at least be intriguing. He sat 89-91, but he can cut it a bit, and it has some life up in the zone. His command of the pitch has improved, and he had success running it in to righties and splitting some lumber. His upper-70s curve had a nice shape to it, although he would cast it at times. It is a potentially average offering. He still throws a very forgettable cutter/slider thing, and I think I saw two changeups. There’s some deception in his delivery, and everything is very compact and repeatable. You are probably looking at a standard issue two-pitch lefty reliever here, but hey, that’s a major league role too.

Ali Sanchez, C

If Carpio was a little disappointing this week, Sanchez was very disappointing. I have advocated for him since the GCL—and yes, catchers are weird—but if I didn’t have better priors on Sanchez, I’d be tempted to call him a non-prospect. That is a pretty harsh grade for a catcher, as it doesn’t take much to be a viable emergency third catching option. So what’s changed? Despite pedestrian numbers in the complex and downright bad ones in Brooklyn, I’ve been fairly bullish on Sanchez’s bat. The swing I saw this year just had no oomph. He doesn’t use his lower half at all anymore, and while there is still enough feel with the barrel to make contact, it’s mostly bad/weak contact. There’s 20 power now, and the good contact tends to be short line drives up the middle or to the opposite field. The defense behind the plate was fine, but a little indifferent. He didn’t have to make any throws, but the reports are the arm is markedly improved at least. I have no special knowledge here, but Sanchez looked like a player struggling with a back or lower body injury right now. If he isn’t, well that non-prospect possibility looms a little larger.

Short Hops

LHP Jake Simon has room to grow into his wiry frame and an advanced curveball for the level, but there’s a lot of effort in the delivery at present and he was topping out at 90. OF Ricardo Cespedes underwhelmed again. The swing is mostly arms, all slash and chop and there isn’t much power there for how long it gets. He’s probably a corner outfielder long term too. C Brandon Brosher has 70-grade raw power and a plus arm, but the defense is still very rough, and he may not get the power into games enough to survive a move to one of the corners.

Photo credit: Reinhold Matay – USA Today Sports

The Top 10

1. Steven Matz, LHP

Current Assignment: New York Mets

2016 to date: 60.1 IP, 2.39 ERA, 25% K, 5.3% BB, 54 H, 4 HR

Well this has gone well.

Before our national list came out, I argued hard for Matz over Julio Urias; I also think there was an case for Matz as the best pitching prospect in baseball over even Giolito. Being able to do it in the majors matters, and Matz had already shown flashes of that. He has taken another step forward this season–and my No. 2 starter projection on him might even end up low–although the command needs to get more consistent and he still has his own durability questions to answer. 30 starts and 180 major league innings this year will go a long way towards silencing the last concerns about the Mets southpaw.

Graduated (and pretty pretty good)

2. Amed Rosario, SS

Current Assignment: Advanced-A St. Lucie

2016 to date: 262 PA, .307/.359/.445, 7.6% BB, 13% K

Rosario is repeating the Florida State League, but is still one of the youngest players in the Sunshine State. On the preseason list I noted that his defensive tools were more advanced than his offensive ones, but the bat has begun to catch up in a big way. He’ll be in Binghamton in the second half, where I will get to see him live for the first time since 2014, but we already have big internal reports on him, and I had a scout sing his praises to me recently as well. The mothership starts our midseason top 50 list discussion soon, and Rosario will be in the conversation for the top half.

Stock Up

3. Luis Carpio, SS/2B

Current Assignment: Minor League Disabled List

Carpio was the most aggressive ranking on this list. I definitely stand by it, and I think he’s still a top-10 prospect in the system even after shoulder surgery that will keep him out for the whole year. The issue is with his throwing arm which may accelerate a move to the right side of the infield, but we won’t know that (or anything else) until he gets back on the field on the field in 2017.

Stock Down

4. Gavin Cecchini, SS 

Current Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas

2016 to date: 177 PA, .314/.375/.409, 9% BB, 12.4% K

All Cecchini has done for the past season-and-a-half is hit. Well, he’s hit enough to be a valuable up-the-middle bat in the majors at least. He tinkered with a large leg kick in A-ball, and while that did give him a little more pop into the gaps, it left him vulnerable to offspeed. When I saw him the next year in Binghamton, he was using a simple toe tap to close from a slightly open stance and a flatter overall swing plane. This has improved his contact ability, but sapped whatever gap power he might have had. Cecchini is mostly a singles hitter nowadays, so I do wonder if major league arms will challenge him more once the book gets out, cutting into his on-base numbers despite his strong strike zone control.

The defense was always supposed to be the sure thing for Cecchini. He was drafted as an advanced shortstop glove, and although no pundits promised Gold Gloves, he was seen as about a sure thing to stick at short as you will find coming out of high school. But as a pro, Cecchini has struggled with the responsibilities on the left side of the infield. The arm is short for the position, and can be scattershot at times, especially when he has to reach back for more. The range is a step short as well, and he struggles with his actions at faster game speeds. He’s played every one of his professional games at shortstop, but it is hard to see him being more than a once-a-week guy there in the majors. At second base, there probably isn’t enough offense to be a starter unless he hits .280. But there is a major league role to be found when you can hit a bit and play up-the-middle.

Stock Holding

5. Dominic Smith, 1B

Current Assignment: Double-A Binghamton

2016 to date: 241 PA, .273/.324/.386, 7.1% BB, 15.8% K

Of course you should never scout the stat line.

But sometimes there are reasons for the stat line.

Stock Down

6. Brandon Nimmo, OF 

Current Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas

2016 to date: 222 PA, .325/.403/.521, 11.3% BB, 16.7% K

Nimmo’s hot May and June has piqued Mets fans interest again, but there doesn’t appear to be a ton of real change here (unless you buy into the newest offseason swing/stance tweak). In fact, his profile really hasn’t changed in five years. Nimmo’s the Casey Stengel quip come to life; in five years he’s actualized his chance to be 23. That might sound pessimistic, but while he hasn’t figured out how to hit lefties, or added as much power as projected, Nimmo has several skills that will serve him well in the majors. He won’t kill you in centerfield, and he can get on-base and hit for average power against righties. He isn’t Jose Fernandez, and he isn’t left-handed Hunter Pence, a common comp during his first couple pro seasons, but Nimmo is potentially a useful long-side platoon bat.

I do think the risk here does get understated at times though. His overly passive approach might fall apart against major league pitching, but his first half in Vegas is a step in the right direction. Like Cecchini, Nimmo may end up a bit of a disappointment as a high first-round pick, but both should have significant major league careers.

Stock Holding

7. Desmond Lindsay, OF

Current Assignment: Extended Spring Training

I had hoped the Mets might push Lindsay to Columbia this year. It would have been an extremely aggressive assignment given the background (learning a new position, missed most of his senior season), but he impressed me in a brief cameo for Brooklyn at the end of last summer. A minor leg injury and a couple hit-by-pitches in minor league camp put the kibosh on that though. Lindsay will now head back to Coney Island, surrounded by a much, much better crop of prospects than he was last year.

Stock Holding

8. Wuilmer Becerra, OF

Current Assignment: High-A St. Lucie

2016 to date: 167 PA, .338/.370/.409, 4.2% BB, 15.6% K

Man, heck if I know.

For most of his pro career, Becerra looked like he was built right to factory specs for “right field profile:” A tall Venezuelan with a projectable body, he checked off every box: plus speed, arm, and pop. He was raw at the plate, but had a plan and a swing by the time he got to Savannah and you could easily see him growing into an everyday bat in a corner. Then he went to St. Lucie and hit like Tony Gwynn for two months.

Now it does go back further than that. The Savannah staff made some changes to his stance in 2015, and in the second half there he hit .291/.348/.355. Savannah’s home park was brutally tough on power, but that makes just 22 extra-base hits in his last 94 games and only one home run. If you want to hand wave some of the power outage, he has dealt with shoulder and back issues in 2016. I also got a positive scout quote on him recently, but there is a reason we don’t make Tony Gwynn comps.

Stock the heck if I know

9. Robert Gsellman, RHP

Current Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas

2016 to date: 69.1 IP, 17% K, 5.9% BB, 67 H, 2 HR

Gsellman added a slider this spring in major league camp, and that, along with a small bump in velocity, boosted his K-rate from 12.7% in 2015 to 17% so far in this year’s campaign. That’s still nothing to write home about, but the slider would flash plus in my April look, and the organization has done a very good job developing this type of arm recently. The future projection here hasn’t moved all that much, but he’s another step closer to the majors after his recent promotion to Vegas–although his first start didn’t go well … welcome to the PCL!–and a better bet to reach that OFP now.

Stock Up

10. Ali Sanchez, C

Current Assignment: Extended Spring Training

No real surprise here. Sanchez is a long, long way away, between being a catcher and having just come stateside to the complex last year. He could start at either Kingsport or Brooklyn, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Mets push him to the New York-Penn League to get some experience catching their new crop of arms.

Stock Holding

The five who were just interesting

Matt Reynolds, IF

Current Assignment: New York Mets

Reynolds was listed here in the winter due to the likelihood he would be able to help out the 2016 team. And he’s bounced back and forth between Vegas and Flushing this year, functioning as the 25th man and extra infield glove. He’s never hit all that much in Vegas, considering that it is Vegas, so he has fallen behind guys like Travis Taijeron, Ty Kelly, and TJ Rivera in #MetsTwitter’s ever-changing #FREE________ hierarchy. But he is younger and a better defender than those three, and is likely to have a major league job until the Mets trade for Juan Uribe in six weeks.

Raphael Ramirez, OF

Current Assignment: Extended Spring Training

Ramirez will be flanking Desmond Lindsay in Brooklyn with either Arnaldo Berrios or the next of our interesting five.

Ricardo Cespedes, OF

Current Assignment: Extended Spring Training

I think Cespedes heads to Kingsport, where it will be easier to get him centerfield reps (although I don’t see him sticking up the middle long-term). The Mets could get aggressive though and assign him to Brooklyn and Lindsay to Savannah. A lot of these decisions down to how guys look in extended Spring Training.

Gabriel Ynoa, RHP

Current Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas 51s

Ynoa’s profile is exactly the type that you’d expect to get hammered in Vegas. He’s a strike-thrower with a 55 fastball and nothing else you would expect to miss bats or even barrels. And through 12 starts in 2016, Ynoa has again only struck out 12 percent of the batters he’s faced, and has seen his walk rate creep up . Yet somehow he has bobbed and weaved his way to a sub-3.00 ERA. Despite his success so far, Ynoa’s profile hasn’t really changed. He offers a four-pitch mix, with an average change and two below-average breakers. We are well-past the point of dreaming on a major league slider or curve here, but with a lower arm slot and a low-impact delivery, it’s possible you could develop a Robles-like reliever. For now, Ynoa will continue to start as long as the smoke and mirrors act holds up. And hey, it’s beats getting shelled, however you do it.

Marcos Molina, RHP

Current Assignment: Minor League Disabled List

Molina is still a few months away from throwing off a mound after Tommy John surgery late last summer.

Five more who are interesting … now

As Toby Hyde noted when we chatted with him in Episode 5 of For All You Kids Out There, one of the notable surprises for the Mets affiliates in the first half has been … the lack of surprises. But here’s five more names of note for the second half of the minor league season:

Andrew Church, RHP

Current Assignment: High-A St. Lucie Mets

The Mets second round pick in 2013 was a bit of a head-scratcher at the time. No one had really seen him pitch much in high school.  Coming into 2016, Church had thrown just 132 innings across three season, after losing parts of the last two seasons to injuries. And all of the three were spent in short-season ball. He popped back up a few weeks ago in Columbia, sitting 90-95 and throwing a slider. After two dominant starts in the South Atlantic League, he was bumped up to St. Lucie. He is still very much an unknown quantity, but in a pitching-depleted system, a healthy Church certainly qualifies as interesting.

Chris Flexen, RHP

Current Assignment: High-A St. Lucie Mets

Flexen spent much of 2015 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, but once he got back on the field he showed plus fastball velocity and a developing curve. He could have easily made the interesting list before the season and had an argument for third-best pitching prospect in the system (not that it was a high bar). His 2016 has been uneven, but he has put together a string of strong starts recently and is still only 21. His long-term future is likely in the bullpen, given the fringy command and lack of a third pitch, but a strong second half in the Florida State League could get him top 10 consideration for 2017.

Kevin McGowan, RHP

Current Assignment: Double-A Binghamton Mets

When I saw Kevin McGowan in Brooklyn in 2013, he was a tall drink of water that could touch 95 and flashed a decent curve. After 190 innings of mediocre work as a starter in St. Lucie across 2014-15, the Mets converted McGowan to relief this season and he’s proceeded to strike out 27 percent of the batters he has faced, and walked just 3 percent. That’ll play. McGowan is still 92-95, but now uses a slider as his primary secondary. If he can keep missing bats in the upper minors, he has a real shot to be the first Franklin Pierce alum to play in the majors.

David Thompson, 3B

Current Assignment: Single-A Columbia Fireflies

I generally give guys coming straight from a long college season into the Penn League a bit of a mulligan. It’s their first time playing deep into the summer, and they are learning the specific rigors of pro baseball on the fly. That said, Thompson looked as bad as any first-or-second-day Mets college draftee I have seen on Coney Island. The bat looked slow, and he was overmatched by short-season offspeed stuff.

After a full offseason and a spring in the complex, Thompson has come out blazing in Columbia, hitting .296/.352/.487. The over-the-fence power that he showed in college hasn’t shown up in the pros yet, but 20 doubles in 50 games is a good sign. Thompson is a first baseman long term given his range and shoulder issues, and this may very well be just another example of a polished college guy whacking the Sally league, but it beats writing about another future reliever.

Ivan Wilson, OF 

Current Assignment: Single-A Columbia Fireflies

Wilson has long been a personal concern. When I saw him in Kingsport in 2014 he showed off a toolset that was the best in the system. Easy plus run and arm, you could throw a 70 on the raw if you were so inclined, and he looked like he’d be a good centerfielder down the line. If he could even hit a little, that would be a slam dunk top five prospect in the system, any system.

Just one small problem: he couldn’t hit.

I sat on him for three games that summer and he hit three absolute bombs, but he struggled mightily to pick up spin even at that level, striking out even 47 percent of the time in the Appalachian League. 2015 was marred by injuries, and I was a little surprised to see him pop up in Columbia this year. He’s gotten the K-rate down to 33 percent (which isn’t good, but better than I expected) and the tools are still in there. There still may not even be a Double-A player in here, but if you want a guy to dream on, Wilson’s given you a glimmer.

***

So with Matz’s graduation, and the lack of breakout guys, the Mets system is a bit down from where it was even in April. But four top 100 picks in this year’s draft should help replenish the thin system, and make the Brooklyn Cyclones a must-follow over the rest of the summer.

Photo Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports