This feels like the darkest timeline. With the hapless Giants in town to face the bumbling Mets, some are asking whether two teams have ever both been swept in a three-game series. Prognosticators are demonstrating that losing Noah Syndergaard hurts the Mets more than any team losing its best pitcher. Asdrubal Cabrera crooked his thumb in a direction it doesn’t bend, but he won’t need surgery. BUT the Mets won’t place him on the “it’s literally a 10-day DL” DL. The suspended Matt Harvey, eligible to start on Wednesday, will instead throw a side session because Citi Field is apparently a hostile environment. It might be, since he’s contesting his three-game suspension. Until today, every NL player of the week had been somebody who faced the Mets. And to add insult to injury, 27-year-old former Met Ruben Tejada is somehow slashing .319/.410/.580 in 20 triple-A games for … the Yankees.

MEANWHILE, Neil Walker drove in the first and last runs of the game. Mets 4, Giants 3.

Punditry

Jacob deGrom TTO’d four of the five batters he faced in the first, striking out leadoff man Joe Panik and No. 5 batter Christian Arroyo. In between, Brandon Belt walked and Hunter Pence knocked his own helmet off, which is not one of the three true outcomes. Pence’s awkwardness notwithstanding, he lined a full-count high fastball over the right-center field fence, inches over the outstretched glove of Juan Lagares.

deGrom decided  the best way to retire the Giants was by strikeout. Remember, a year ago this offense was considered an “unprecedented” contact-hitting team. deGrom struck out 10 through the first five innings, including all three in the third. He also walked three and threw 96 pitches through the fifth. With 11 last night, deGrom finished with 10 or more strikeouts for the third time in his last four starts.

Despite starting four hitters with sub-.200 batting averages, the Mets managed to score four runs. Michael Conforto led off the first with a walk, moved to second on a Jay Bruce single, and scored on a two-out Neil Walker ground-rule double. Bruce would have scored as well had the ball not bounced over the wall.

In the fifth inning, the Mets tied the game on singles by deGrom and Conforto, followed by a T.J. Rivera double. The Mets seemed poised to take the lead with second-and-third with no outs, but Bruce and Wilmer Flores both popped up on the infield, and Walker struck out swinging. Tough to watch your 3-4-5 batters fail to drive in two runners in scoring position. It hurt worse when Buster Posey turned deGrom’s first pitch of the sixth inning into a second-deck dinger.

The eighth inning started softly with a Walker flyout. But then Jose Reyes walked, Rene Rivera grounded a single through the 5.5 hole and Juan Lagares walked to load the bases. That brought up the pitcher’s spot, and a surprise pinch-hit appearance by Asdrubal Cabrera, thought to be unavailable due to a severely jammed finger. Cabrera took the first two pitches for strikes and couldn’t dig out of the hole, slapping a smooth roller to short for a tailor-made 6-4-3 double play end the inning. The obviousness of Cabrera killing the Mets’ rally is nothing next to the inevitability of a post-game quote from Terry Collins explaining that the plate appearance proved Cabrera was not ready after all, and *now* Cabrera is going on the 10-day DL (*Editor’s note: this didn’t happen…yet).

The Mets’ bullpen threw three innings of one-hit ball, striking out two and walking none, and kept the game tied 3-3 entering the ninth inning. Conforto led off the bottom of the ninth with a five-pitch walk and Terry sent T.J. Rivera up to bunt. The first two pitches were out of the zone, so Rivera got the green light instead and fouled out to third, failing to advance the runner. That brought up Jay Bruce, who entered the game with a .156/.229/.281 slash line against southpaws. Bruce hit the second pitch 349 feet to right-center, a loud fly that fell short of the warning track.

With two outs, Flores grounded one up the middle that ricocheted off Giants reliever Hunter Strickland for an infield single. That gave Walker a chance to bat with the winning run on second and he took advantage. A clutch line drive over first base gave the Mets their first walk-off win of the year.

Social Media

Three dildos spotted at Citi Field in less than a week https://t.co/ZiQB2eYpSF

— Mike Gianella (@MikeGianella) May 9, 2017

GKR-isms

“Gary, Mets fans love to torture themselves.” — Keith

“Sorry, wasn’t on the headset there; my mother called me.” — Ron

“Keith, you and I have about a three-year window before this game is unrecognizable.” — Ron, referring mostly to shifting infield defense

Forecast

Zack Wheeler versus Jeff Samardzija later tonight, as the Mets need one victory in their next two games to take their fourth straight series.

Photo credit: Andy Marlin – USA Today Sports

Ruben Tejada Versus Chase Utley

Seventh inning, Game Two, 2015 NLDS. The drama started early during last year’s playoffs when Chase Utley controversially broke Ruben Tejada’s leg following a questionable take-out slide at second base. To add insult to injury, Utley was deemed safe upon review. To add further insult to injury, the Dodgers ended up coming back to win Game Two to even up the series.

The injury itself wasn’t the most gruesome thing you’ll ever see, but it was still not fun to watch – nor to see Tejada get carted off the field, with his hopes of post-season play nixed. The play led to high-level debates over the legitimacy of Chase Utley’s slide and the breakup slide in general. The ensuing discussions led to the “Utley Rule,” new guidelines for sliding enacted for 2016. Setting aside the injury’s playoff context, the controversy, and Tejada writhing on the ground, it’s because the Rule will undoubtedly be adjusted over time that Tejada’s injury will never be forgotten. — Tyler Plofker (@TylerPlofker)

Bob Ojeda Versus The Electric Hedge Trimmer

As vital as Ojeda’s pitching was to the 1986 Mets, the 30-year-old was also really good in 1988, posting the best FIP and SO/BB ratio of any starter in the rotation. With a 94-win Dodgers team on deck in the NLCS, Ojeda was already penciled in as the No. 4 starter for the playoffs. The Mets would be heavy favorites to secure their second World Series appearance in three years. Alas, Ojeda nearly lost his left middle finger when he was trimming his honeysuckle bushes in late September and the hedge clippers got the better of him. Davey Johnson heard on the car radio driving to Shea and couldn’t believe the news. Kevin McReynolds, weirdly enough, was already at the same hospital when Ojeda’s ambulance arrived; his wife was being treated for a cut caused by an electric fan.

Five hours of surgery later, Ojeda’s finger (and career) was saved but he missed the rest of the season. Sid Fernandez was called back into starting duty and got shelled in a Game Five loss in LA that put the Mets down 3-1 in the series. David Cone’s five-hitter in Game Six only gave way to Orel Hershiser’s five-hit shutout in Game Seven. You could argue that Ojeda’s absence made all the difference. — Erik Malinowski (@erikmal)

Orlando Hernandez Versus Jogging

There are a lot of what-ifs that run through your head in the decade since the Mets were cruelly eliminated from the 2006 playoffs by an 83-win Cardinals team. What if Billy Wagner had pitched the eighth? What if Jose Valentin or Endy Chavez could have lifted a medium-depth flyball. What if Billy Wagner could get So Taguchi out? What if Wilie Randolph hadn’t pinch-hit with a clearly compromised Cliff Floyd? And — yeah, fine — what if Carlos Beltran had swung the bat? (He probably ain’t hitting that pitch, you guys.)

But here’s another one: What if El Duque didn’t hurt himself before Game One of the Dodgers series? Hernandez was actually quite good as a Met (when he was healthy, the standard caveat for all of #OmarsTeam). He also had a deserved reputation as a big-game pitcher. But after he injured himself jogging, the Mets cobbled together starts from Steve Trachsel, John Maine, and Oliver Perez because Hernandez missed the entire playoffs. Now, Maine was fine. In fact, his Game Six performance against the Cardinals gets overlooked as one of the great Met starts of recent years. Ollie was serviceable, more or less. So yeah, for this to work, you have to believe that Willie wouldn’t have kept starting Steve Trachsel. And, well…I’ll stick with Billy Wagner being able to get out So Taguchi for my baseball fantasy life.

Of course the worst part of all of this is it happened before the advent of Twitter dot com, spoiling what would have been the greatest #LOLMets moment of all time. — Jeffrey Paternostro (@jeffpaternostro)

David Wright Versus Spinal Stenosis

David Wright is the greatest Met position player of all time, but the majority of his career has been wasted away by incompetent management and crooked ownership. In 2015, it seemed like Wright would finally have a chance to be part of a competitive team again, an honor he had more than earned. As we all know, he left a mid-April game with what seemed to be a mild hamstring strain, but that injury turned into a devastating spinal stenosis diagnosis for Wright at 32. Not only will he deal with this condition for the rest of his life, but it has likely robbed him of his last few chances to be a big part of a World Series club, a reality that has to be as heartbreaking to him as it is to Met fans. — Lukas Vlahos (@lvlahos343)

Duaner Sanchez Versus a Drunk Driver

The 2006 season was a great one for the New York Mets, having won the division for the first time since 1988. For reliever Duaner Sanchez, it was his best season but also the season in which he suffered the injury that ultimately cost him his career. On the morning of July 31st, Sanchez was involved in a car accident as a passenger in a taxi in Miami when he went out early in the morning to grab food. He was the passenger in the taxi when a drunk driver veered into their lane and hit Sanchez’s taxi. Sanchez suffered a serious shoulder injury, ending his 2006 season and the 2007 season before it started.

When Sanchez finally returned in 2008, he was not the same pitcher. The Mets subsequently released him in 2009 Spring Training. Unfortunately for the Mets, they could have used the home-grown Sanchez during the 2006 postseason and in subsequent years when their relievers struggled. The bizarre injury ultimately forced the Mets to trade Xavier Nady to the Pirates to acquire Oliver Perez and reacquire 41-year old Roberto Hernandez (the reliever), both of whom had less than memorable Mets careers after the trade. Sanchez ended up pitching 12 games for the Padres in 2009 but finished the season with a FIP of 8.73, ending his Major League career.  — Seth Rubin (@sethrubin)

Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Chase Utley

It’s funny that Chase Utley will now be best remembered by Mets fans for a moment during which he was wearing something other than a Phillies uniform. I might have been able to include Utley here for all of the damage he did during his tenure in Philadelphia. He has slugged 35 homers against the Mets, his most against any team. His former teammates Ryan Howard (45) and Pat Burrell (42) have hit more against the Mets, but Utley always felt like the heart and soul of the Phillies during their successful NL East run from 2007-2011.

If exorcising demons is your thing, it was appropriate that the Mets would run into longtime foes Utley and Jimmy Rollins in last year’s NLDS against the Dodgers. However, it was no longer cute when Utley made a reckless “slide” —  really, a rolling block — into Ruben Tejada in Game 2. And somehow, after a replay review and Tejada getting carted off the field with a broken leg, Utley was allowed to stay at second base (despite never touching it during play). The slide tackle changed the game’s complexion and clinched Utley’s status as an all-time Mets Villain.

With the series shifting back to New York for Game 3, Citi Field was going to be bonkers even if the Utley play hadn’t happened. Mets fans waited nine long, frustrating years for the postseason to return to Queens. But the Utley situation ramped up the energy and intensity. As I sat in the stands at Citi Field during player introductions, it felt like the stadium had finally arrived. It was as if Utley had knocked something loose in all of us. It was our home, at long last. And we were happy to let him know it. — D.J. Short (@djshort)

Derek Jeter

You can make an easy statistical case for Derek Jeter, Mets Villain. His .364 batting average (131-for-360) is third-best all time for players with at least 100 at-bats against the Mets. Indeed, that .364 batting average was Jeter’s highest against any team (minimum 40 at-bats). As shown in the chart below, Jeter’s OPS against the Mets, as compared to his performance against all other teams, ranks 11th in history.

(Huh. Omar Infante. Who knew?)

Superlative regular-season and even World Series statistics aside (in the 2000 Subway Series, Jeter hit .409 and a certain home run, winning the Series MVP), Jeter is a Mets Villain because he represents a paradigm shift in New York baseball fandom. Before Jeter — and, thus, before his team reached the playoffs every year from 1995 through 2007 — it was possible to be a New York baseball fan. When your favorite team, the Mets, was on a west-coast swing and you had to go to sleep before the late games started, nobody questioned your choice to turn on the Yankee home game and root for the other local nine.

Now? Supporting the Mets essentially requires you to hate anyone employed by the Steinbrenners. Such negativity has made us less just, has diminished us as Mets fans and as citizens of the Empire State. You know the T-shirt, “I root for the Mets and whoever’s playing the Yankees?” That’s Jeter’s fault. — Scott D. Simon (@scottdsimon)

The Wilpons

Sometimes you’ll read a magazine profile of someone and come away thinking, Why did they ever agree to that? The pinnacle of the art form — at least in baseball circles — might well be Jeffrey Toobin’s 2011 New Yorker profile of Fred Wilpon, whose ownership tenure on the field has been a morass of underachievement sprinkled with little blips of excitement. Off the field, there has been a near-endless string of embarrassments, from the Bernie Madoff debacle (which makes up the narrative bulk of Toobin’s piece and makes Wilpon look clueless, if not downright incompetent) to the discrimination lawsuit involving Jeff Wilpon that was settled last year to the inexplicable reluctance to re-sign Yoenis Cespedes this past offseason after a second-half explosion that led to a shocking World Series run. Bud Selig and MLB have enabled and protected Wilpon and his partners time and again over the years. That policy continues with no end in sight.

The best any pro sports team owner can hope for is to be a neutral party that stays in the background, signs the checks, and doesn’t inflict any due harm on the franchise. Make no mistake: Fred and the Wilpons are not the direct reason for any of the Mets’ recent celebrations. The Mets have succeeded in spite of the Wilpons and their repulsive decision-making. The subhead on that New Yorker profile: “Will Fred Wilpon be forced to sell the Mets?” Oh, we’re still waiting on that one. — Erik Malinowski (@erikmal)

Roger Clemens

Although the 1986 Mets had to face Roger Clemens, that year’s MVP and Cy Young winner, in the World Series, it was not until 14 years later that Roger would fully establish his villainy toward the franchise. Mike Piazza spent his MLB career owning Roger Clemens (.364/.440/.955). Clemens, a pitcher who put together an undeniably great career, was never afraid to throw at opponents who dared to succeed against him. He famously threw a purpose pitch up and in at his oldest son Koby, after Koby hit a home run against him in a 2006 Spring Training game. Six years earlier (7/8/00) Roger Clemens hit Mike Piazza in the head with a fastball. This pitch alone would have been enough to add The Rocket to the list of Mets villains, but he was never one to settle for just qualifying for a list. In game 2 of the World Series that same year, Clemens took his villainy to cartoonish heights when he broke Piazza’s bat on a foul ball, picked up a shard of bat that went into the field of play, and threw it at Piazza, who was running down the first base line. The benches cleared and Clemens had forever earned his place on the list of the greatest villains in Mets history. — Craig Glaser (@sabometrics)

Terry Pendleton

Terry Pendleton had a nice career. He won a few gold gloves and an MVP. He compiled ~33 WARP across 15 seasons in the bigs. That is a very good major league ballplayer. In my head, I thought he was a bit better hitter than his .270/.316/.390 final line. Even playing the bulk of his games in the late­ eighties and early nineties, that only comes out to a .252 TAv. He must have been better against the Mets, no? That’s why I must consider him a Mets villain (and it would also explain my misrememberings). Nope, his performance against the Mets was right around his career line. Sure, he played for the mid-eighties Cardinals teams that clashed with Keith, Doc, Darryl and company, but was he more of a pest than Jack Clark or Willie McGee?

I started rooting for the Mets in 1987. In my twenties, I wore this as a twisted badge of honor. I’ve seen things, man, and none of them were a Mets World Series victory. Functionally, of course, I remember very little of the 1987 season. I was five. My Mets fandom comes from my maternal grandparents’ side. They lived in Florida at the time, and when they’d call we’d talk about the Mets box score from the previous night’s game. This is also how I learned how to read, box scores and gamers from the Hartford Courant. A lot of this comes to me second-hand from my parents of course, abiding memories are hard to come by when you’re five.

I do have one memory of that season though. I hate Terry Pendleton. The culprit was likely this game. The Mets had a chance to reel the Cardinals in late in the season. It was a brutal loss looking at the box score. I may have seen the game. I likely read the AP report the next day in the Courant. I don’t remember either of those things, though. I just remember I hate Terry Pendleton. This is silly, of course. I am an adult, I should put away childish things. And I don’t really hate Terry Pendleton nowadays.

But I sort of still hate Terry Pendleton nowadays. — Jeffrey Paternostro (@jeffpaternostro)

Shane Victorino

From 2007 until his inglorious exit from Philadelphia in 2012, no one captured the enmity of Mets fans more than Phila talented switch-hitting centerfielder. Victorino was not, like many of the other players listed here, a traditional “Met Killer.” He put up something very close to his career line in games against the Mets. Victorino doesn’t even have the signature backbreaking moment, just a couple of garden-variety walkoffs like every other longtime division foe. What Victorino was to the Met fan was a constant agitator. He slid a little too hard (and years later, praised another member of this list who slid far too hard). He said a little too much to the media. He did a little too much celebrating on the field, famously mocking Jose Reyes home run celebrations in the 2008 playoffs that the Mets weren’t even in. He’d bend the rules, and then whine to the umpires. He was the perfect player for a rival fan to love to hate.

But baseball fandom also has a funny way of lying to you about these things. When I went back to look at what I remembered as a brutal flying forearm to Reyes in a rundown in 2009, it was more of a borderline brush to create an obstruction call. And years after their various run-ins, Reyes is currently under indefinite suspension for allegedly slamming his wife through a glass door, while Victorino tries to fight his way back to the major leagues. Looking back, I’m not sure I had the right villain in this story. — Jarrett Seidler (@jaseidler)

Yadier Molina

Baseball fans may think of Yadier Molina as a two-way catcher and seven-time all star. But back in 2006, Molina hit .216/.274/.321. To put that in historical perspective, Kevin Plawecki struggled his way to a .241 True Average last year. Molina’s TAv in the 2006 regular season was .201! In the playoffs, Molina must have suddenly discovered how to hit during one of his countless trips to the pitcher’s mound.

With one out in the 9th inning of Game 7 of the NLCS, Molina hit a home run to left that would prove to be the game winner. The 83-win Cardinals then went on to become the worst team to ever win the World Series. Yadier Molina has embraced his role as the leader of a team that relies more on execution, luck and aggravating opponents than power at the plate or on the mound. Instead of being a cult hero like his brothers, Yadier has been dubbed “the evil Molina brother” by many fan bases, starting with the that of the Mets. — Noah Grand (@noahgrand)

Pat Burrell

On the list of Met-killers, perhaps Burrell doesn’t have the same cache as the Chase Utleys and Chipper Joneses of the world. But if you look at the top-10 home run hitters against the Mets, you’ll find a laundry list of Hall-of-Famers starting with Willie Stargell (60 anti-Met dingers) and ending with Andre Dawson (36 homers against the Amazins). The only two people in the top 10 neither enshrined in nor heading to Cooperstown are No. 6 Ryan Howard and No. 7 Pat Burrell.

Burrell was a first overall draft pick in 1998, chosen 20 picks ahead of the Mets’ immortal choice of Jason Tyner by the Philadelphia Phillies. For the better part of a decade, he seemed to be around during every Phillies rally, and even after he moved to San Francisco at the end of his career, he still found a way to bring the Mets down. It is forgivable to be a high draft pick, but to be a foundational piece of a Phillies team that won the 2008 World Series? To hit 42 home runs against the Mets, seemingly each and every time I tuned in to watch a New York-Philadelphia tilt? Unforgivable. — Bryan Grosnick (@bgrosnick)

Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

The team surprised most fans and commentators by cutting Ruben Tejada in the middle of Spring Training. This is likely a financial decision–they now pay Tejada just $500,000 instead of his full salary of $3 million–but it has a significant impact on the shape of the infield depth and how the Mets can weather a medium- to long-term injury. Tejada has never been a great player–he’s barely ever been a good one–but his 1.9 WARP in 2015 puts him damn near close to league-average, with just 407 at bats.  He’s obviously no long-term third baseman, but if Wright goes down, that leaves an average-sized hole in an otherwise deep roster.

The most likely candidate to take over the hot corner is Wilmer Flores. There has been buzz about Neil Walker being moved over and Flores slotting in at second base, but Walker logged barely 100 innings in that spot–with the most recent stint coming back in 2010–so Flores has an edge in both experience and in general defensive ability.

With Flores locked in at either position and Ruben Tejada now wearing Cardinals red, the Mets are suddenly in need of a backup shortstop. Assuming (and hoping) the team doesn’t consider Eric Campbell’s 22 professional innings at shortstop to be sufficient qualifications for the role, they will turn to the last shortstop standing on the 40-man roster, Matt Reynolds, to round out the Wrightless 25-man roster.

So what does this infielder merry-go-round mean when it comes down to wins and losses? PECOTA has the team pegged at a 90-win season with Wright logging 2.5 WARP over 531 plate appearances. In this model, Flores gets 420 plate appearances (172 at third base) with 1.6 WARP and Reynolds gets 114 and barely cracks replacement level at 0.1 WARP.

Let’s try another perspective. Assume Wright misses half the season instead–for comparison’s sake, he missed 124 games in 2015–and around 250 of those plate appearances have to be covered elsewhere. His projected WARP then drops to 1.3. If Flores adds roughly 110 plate appearances to his total, with another 110 being diverted from the “super sub” role he’s currently filling, this adds 0.4 WARP to his season. The last 30 PA would likely be covered by Eric Campbell, who is close enough to replacement level that the change to his WARP is basically negligible. As Matt Reynolds is also essentially replacement level, his filling in those 110 plate appearances Flores is not getting as a backup doesn’t add a meaningful amount to his WARP either.

When we crunch the numbers, starting from a 90-win season and subtracting 1.2 wins with Wright’s extended absence and adding 0.4 from Flores, it costs the Mets around one win and leaves them with a projected 89-win season. Not a terrible impact on paper, but as any Mets fan knows, one game can be the difference between bliss and agony. Moreover, PECOTA pegs Washington at 87 wins, so as it is, the Mets hold the narrowest projected lead in the National League. This is where the loss of Tejada really shows up, as he could easily add 0.5 WARP over Reynolds which is significant in a race this tight.

There are major implications for the team across the entire range of outcomes for Wright. Missing nearly the whole season could easily cost them two full wins. If Asdrubal Cabrera also misses time, forcing Reynolds or Campbell into a starting role, then we start to get into wacky “What about Amed Rosario” territory and there ain’t no math for that one. On the other hand, if he stays on the field for his projected 531 plate appearances and performs at the same level he did last year, he could add a win or even two over current projections.

Allowing for a range of 89 to 92 wins is a big difference for one player–especially for one who isn’t projected to put up especially high numbers–and there’s no doubt that swing could completely redefine the Mets season. 92 wins is champagne time; 89 wins is nail-biting time. And with Wright traveling in uncharted territory in regards to spinal stenosis treatment following a unique exercise and rest regimen designed for him by his neurosurgeon Dr. Robert Watkins, neither the best minds nor the fastest processors can say where he’ll be come September. Or, for that matter, October.

Photo Credit: Peter Aiken-USA TODAY SPORTS