Madison Bumgarner

Yeah, yeah, I know Bumgarner’s been kinda lousy lately. Just a few weeks ago, he looked like a Cy Young favorite, and now he’s barely even on the periphery of the discussion.

But did y’all watch the 2014 postseason? The man had inarguably the greatest postseason ever, capped by arguably the greatest relief appearance in the history of baseball. More than anyone else in baseball, it feels like he’s capable of walking onto the field on October 5th and giving the Mets virtually no shot of winning that game. It’s not the most rational fear, but I desperately do not want to see Bumgarner in the Wild Card Game. – Jarrett Seidler (@jaseidler)

Cardinals Devil Magic

Killing dreams is the true “Cardinal Way.” They live to destroy the hopes and dreams of other fanbases, particularly those who are in long championship droughts. Bring it back to 2006, when with one of the worst teams to ever make the playoffs (83 wins!), they knocked out the still-championship-deprived Padres and then, tragically, eliminated the best Mets team since 1986 and a far better club. (Thanks, Adam Wainwright.) To top it off, in the World Series they took down the Tigers, a Cinderella team that lost 119 games just three years prior to making its first playoff appearance since 1987.

In 2011, the Cardinals took down the dominant “Four Aces” Phillies squad and two more title-less teams in the Brewers and Rangers. They were 10 1/2 games back of a playoff spot in late August. It didn’t matter. Texas was just a strike away from a World Series victory. Twice. It didn’t matter. David Freese hit a playable fly ball to deep right field that should have been the final out. It didn’t matter.

There haven’t been any Cardinals championships since then, but the team has still killed plenty of dreams. Daniel Descalso and Pete Kozma, of all people, tying and winning 2012 NLDS Game 5 against the Nationals with one out to go. Coming back from behind in the 2013 NLDS to eliminate another Cinderella team, the Pirates. Somehow beating Clayton Kershaw to send the Dodgers home (again, twice).

This is what the Cardinals live to do. So if it’s Cardinals/Mets Wild Card game, I fully expect a late-game homer by Kolten Wong to win it. Yes, Wong only has five dingers all year. Repeat: It doesn’t matter. Cardinals devil magic perseveres. Enjoy Arby’s. — Andrew Mearns (@MearnsPSA)

The Mets’ Bullpen

Strong peripherals and a wonky BABIP-against might project a sunnier future, but they won’t clean the grime off of the Mets bullpen’s 4.09 second-half ERA, 21st in baseball over that stretch. Beginning with a hot stretch to end 2015, Mets fans got a taste of life without fear of the 7th inning, but now the fear is back and this time it comes with the highest of high-leverage situations lingering in the distance: a win-or-go-home Wild Card game. Mets starters can go deep, but if anyone else not name Reed or Familia steps on that rubber, all bets are off. Terry Collins’s history of … creative … bullpen decisions doesn’t offer much comfort, either. Whether the Mets are facing the Cards or the Giants, I have just one request: go 9, Noah, go 9. — Maggie Wiggin (@maggie162)

The Mets’ Infield Defense

This won’t exactly be breaking news to anyone who watched the Mets in last year’s World Series, but I still feel ill at ease with an extreme groundball closer on the mound in a one-run game. Nate Silver’s Secret Sauce is out of fashion (due to some overfitting and the presence of Mariano Rivera’s peak queering the data), but it is nice to have a defense that can turns balls in play into outs, especially when you are likely to be playing close games in October. Asdrubal Cabrera and Neil Walker were defensive upgrades over Flores and Murphy, but neither are even average and only one is healthy. Plus, the team is running out James Loney, who’s not stretching for balls, and a thirty-something third baseman with diminished range. It isn’t hard to picture a slow-rolling grounder through the 5.5 hole upending the Mets when it hurts the most. At least it will be a familiar pain. — Jeffrey Paternostro (@jeffpaternostro)

Re-Living 2006 NLCS Game 7

Overall, 2006 was a great season for the Mets. They finally dethroned the Atlanta Braves as NL East champions and advanced to the NLCS. If the Mets advance to the Wild Card game this year, I am frightened that it will be eerily similar to NLCS Game 7 of 2006, the one game where most of my memories from that season exist. Particularly the dreaded 9th inning: Aaron Heilman gave up a two-run home run to Yadier Molina, then Adam Wainwright, a rookie at the time, struck out Carlos Beltran looking on a curveball to end the game.

A one-game playoff against the Cardinals would not be good for my psyche. Every Yadier Molina at-bat will haunt me, reminding me how close the Mets were in 2006. And every Adam Wainwright curveball will bring back the pain of the called third strike to end that game and the Mets’ season. The last thing I want is for the 2016 season to end the way the 2006 season did. — Seth Rubin (@sethrubin)

Photo Credit: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports

In the interest of getting ahead of myself, I’d like to take this time to make an educated guess about the roster the Mets might have to compose if (not when!) they were to make the playoffs. I’m not entirely certain that the team that the Mets face will dramatically affect their roster construction … but we’ll get to that later. With the WC game on October 5–and hopefully the Mets’ NLDS battle against the Cubs on October 7–we can expect the team to go full-out in order to maximize winning this one single game, then worry about the Cubs later. Most WC playoff teams go with a 16/9 split–nine pitchers and 16 position players–on their 25-man roster, and I think that’s what the Mets do as well. However, they are a team that I could also see leaning on a 10th pitcher if need be.

Barring injury, this my expectation as to who makes the Mets’ 25-man Wild Card Game roster.

Starting Pitcher

• Noah Syndergaard

There’s no chance it’s anyone else, right? If the timing lines up like I think it does, then Thor pitches on September 19, September 24, September 29 or 30, and then is ready to go on October 5 in the WC game. Even if deGrom and Matz were perfectly healthy, Syndergaard is going to likely score a top-three Cy Young finish, and he’d be a tough hack for the Giants, Cardinals, or any other team the Mets might have to face in a one-game playoff. He is, in fact, The Man.

Extra Starting Pitcher(s)

• Jacob deGrom (or Steven Matz)
• Seth Lugo

Here’s where it gets tricky, and we get to play the “what the heck is going on with the Mets’ pitchers” game. One has to assume that, even if deGrom or Matz make their unlikely comebacks, the team may be hesitant to throw one of the walking wounded out in Game 1 of a NLDS. Bartolo Colon and Robert Gsellman are more than likely the team’s additional starting pitchers for the playoffs in addition to Thor. But, I have a little faith that Stetson’s Finest will be able to at least throw a relief inning or two as he works his way back up to full health. Under the best of circumstances, maybe deGrom will be stretched back out enough to be a factor in the NLDS. Even then, I could certainly see him active for this Wild Card game. On the other hand, neither deGrom or Matz may be healthy here. If that’s the case, I’d expect Gabriel Ynoa to fill in.

(Later Friday Update: deGrom is now scheduled to start on Sunday, September 18. Hooray! That would certainly put him in line to pitch in the Wild Card game, or Game 1 of the NLDS.)

Lugo is probably the right combination of rested and effective to back up Syndergaard in case things go south in a hurry. I like him as a two-inning reliever in case Syndergaard is gassed or getting hit around and the Mets want to go to the ‘pen early, or as an insurance policy in case the game goes to 14 innings. His 2.40 ERA belies his 4.47 DRA, but I’d rather see his curveball than anything Logan Verrett has to offer these days.

(Sunday Update: deGrom is done, needing ulnar nerve surgery and out for the year. Time to play Gilmartin-Ynoa roulette!)

Relievers

• Jeurys Familia
• Addison Reed
• Jerry Blevins
• Josh Smoker
• Fernando Salas
• Hansel Robles
• Jim Henderson

A couple of these are easy, the rest are hard. The top six relievers here all feel like no-brainers: Familia and Reed are the nightmarish one-two combo that the Mets need from the right side. From the left side, Blevins has been crazy effective and Smoker gets strikeouts like Jack Leathersich was supposed to. Robles has been Terry Collins’ default for much of the season (62 appearances!), while Salas brings “veteran experience” but has also been killer in his eight innings with the Mets so far. They’re all in.

Henderson probably gets in on the strength of his story and veteran-ness, even though his last four outings with the Mets have been something like hot garbage. (Most of his season has been bad, but maybe you pop him in to get one key strikeout?) I’d probably rather have Sean Gilmartin here … even though he hasn’t been good either … because he gives the team another lefty to throw, and can eat three or four innings compared to Henderson who would likely struggle to go one. But we’re talking about the last guy at the back of the bullpen here–if either is pitching in the Wild Card game, chances are that the Mets have already lost it. And, of course, if anyone above gets injured, I have to imagine he’s the next guy up.

Catchers

• Rene Rivera
• Travis d’Arnaud
• Kevin Plawecki

If the Mets are smart, I’d certainly see them rolling with three catchers for the big game. This allows the team to start d’Arnaud against the Cardinals and Rivera against the Giants; d’Arnaud’s oft-criticized arm wouldn’t matter against the Cardinals and their NL-worst 32 stolen bases. (Yes, I know Thor is bad at slowing down the running game, I’ll still take Travis’s bat.) If Rivera does have to start, at least the team can use TdA as a pinch-hitter in a critical position, and Terry won’t have to worry about an emergency catcher due to the presence of Plawecki. Everyone wins, except Plawecki.

Infielders

• Jose Reyes
• Asdrubal Cabrera
• Wilmer Flores
• James Loney
• Kelly Johnson
• T.J. Rivera

Let me come right out here and say this: it’s not what I would do. But this isn’t about what I would do*, it’s about what I think the Mets will do. Reyes, Cabrera, and Flores have to be no-brainers if they’re all healthy–an open question with Flores–and technically all three can play shortstop. That’s probably enough to keep the team from pulling in Matt Reynolds or Gavin Cecchini (ha!) as a backup six, and gives them the freedom to go with T.J. Rivera or Ty Kelly as the sixth infielder.

(* – What would I do? Swap out Loney for Cecchini–and make sure he gets a few big-league PA before October. Pray Wilmer gets real healthy real fast. And think long and hard about swapping Rivera out for Brandon Nimmo, while using Conforto or Bruce as the first baseman against right-handers.)

James Loney is still the top first baseman on the depth chart, inexplicably, so he’s in. The guy who should be the starting first baseman, Kelly Johnson, will continue to be Terry’s dynamite pinch-hitter. The only real question here is if the team goes with the hot hand of Rivera over the switch-hitting of Kelly.

(Later Friday Note: Lucas Duda looks to be back with the team starting this weekend. It’s a no-brainer to replace Loney with Duda if he’s even at 75 percent capacity. Loney is an inferior hitter and stiff af.)

Outfielders

• Yoenis Cespedes
• Curtis Granderson
• Jay Bruce
• Alejandro De Aza
• Michael Conforto
• Juan Lagares

You’d hope that the team would be allergic to starting Bruce at this point, but I imagine it will be a cold day in hell before the team sits him–even if Madison Bumgarner is the opposing starting pitcher. While I remain hopeful that the Mets roll with a Cespedes/Granderson/Conforto starting outfield against the Cardinals’ Carlos Martinez, hope is for the weak. If the Mets are faced with Bumgarner, none of the team’s “hard-hitting” options of Bruce, Conforto, Granderson, or even De Aza are good ones. That would be an extremely challenging game. In the end, I expect TC to pencil in good old Yoenis in left field, and then two of Granderson, Bruce, or De Aza in center and right. Michael Conforto should be available off the bench, unless something happens over the next two weeks that causes Terry to renew his confidence in the team’s once and future second-best hitter.

Lagares, ostensibly, is just here to run and play defense. In a one-game playoff, that’s okay. But I sure wish he could hit if the team is going to match up with Bumgarner. I’d feel a whole lot better with a healthy Lagares in center flanked by Yo and Grandy (or Conforto!) against a lefty than any other grouping. I mean, I’d feel a whole lot better if this roster was wildly different, but they’ve gotten this far …

Photo Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports