Humorous asides aside, it’s clear even this early into the season that there is a swell of competitiveness lurking. The Mets and Nationals are full-thronged rivals now and it’s never too early to start the fun, no matter how Alderson may try to dispel the notion.

“I’ve always viewed the Nationals as a quality team, absolutely,” he said. “It’s a little early to worry about where they are versus where we are but at the same time I always viewed them as a solid team with maybe something to prove this year.”

And this is the beauty of it. Last year was a make-good year for the Mets. A season where they finally drew some revenge against their tormentors. The Nationals had bullied them for so long that it was the accumulation of a tremorous build-up.

But now, this year, this is where it becomes fun. This is the matchup of two nearly even teams and year long race to the top. No need to wait until May 17–when they first meet–to start sizing them up.

“It’s pretty clear already that this is a two-team race with Washington,” an unnamed general manager told Sports Illustrated. “The Nationals are going to be in it. The Mets and Nationals are going be neck and neck for the division all year.”

Some of the storylines are obvious and some transcend the rivalry itself.

Each has a Scott Boras-backed ace struggling so far this season. The one who got paid $210 million in Washington (Max Scherzer) is giving up home runs at a career-high rate. The one in his second year back from Tommy John surgery (Matt Harvey) has seen his velocity dip and become more hittable than ever. Neither has their usual command.

The Daniel Murphy-Neil Walker swap at second base has worked out wonderfully for the Mets so far but it’s also added a layer of intrigue. Murphy leads the major leagues in batting average at .394 as of Wednesday while Walker is tied for second in all of baseball with eight home runs.

The home run leader so far, is of course, Bryce Harper. He has become the face and voice of baseball and the closest offensive analog the sport has seen to Barry Bonds since he retired. His left-handed swing is the most dangerous demolition ball, indiscriminately blowing up pitchers with no regard for them for the last year-plus.

So just think of the first time he faces Noah Syndergaard this season. There is nothing to match the violent dominance Syndergaard has unleashed upon hitters in 2016. A fastball that lives at 99 mph and a 92 mph slider are his weapons of destruction. Seeing him try to strikeout Harper is the most tantalizing at-bat in the sport this year. Will we get a redux of Syndergaard striking out Harper with a 99 mph heater in the eighth inning of a crucial late-summer game as he did last August? Or will Harper crush one into the stands? This is what Major League Baseball should be frothing over and building suspense towards.

More than anything, this rivalry provides the intrigue every season needs. Not only are the Mets hunting to reach the postseason again, there is another flavor to the chase. The Mets and Nationals will tower over their division and try to cast a shadow over another too.

Photo Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

As good as the Nationals have been recently, it’s clear that GM Mike Rizzo has failed to surround Bryce Harper with enough talent. Rizzo’s “Star and Scrubs” roster will require Harper to carry a lineup littered with talented, but flawed players. It bears repeating, however, that Harper’s regressed projection is less than half his 2015 production–11.2 Batter Wins Above Replacement Player, or BWARP, in 2015–and despite Harper’s historic season the Nationals still missed the playoffs. To put last year in context, Harper’s BWARP was higher than any single Mike Trout season and was equivalent to prime Barry Bonds. It’s possible, even likely, that the projection for Harper is too conservative–he is a generational talent after all. Then again, if Harper does not replicate his 2015 season, it’s difficult to foresee the Nationals surpassing the Mets.

The only true candidate to be Harper’s running-mate is Anthony Rendon, who has previously performed at an elite level. In 2014, he posted a 5.4 win season after being considered the most talented player in the 2011 amateur draft. Recall though, Washington was only able to draft Rendon sixth overall because he–like our Travis d’Arnaud–had a propensity for injury: thumb, ankle, oblique, etc. If Washington wins the division, it will be because Rendon remains on the field and performs at an All-Star level. The alternative is …

… Trea Turner. Not a bad option! Though, that it is an option at all is shortsighted. In a patent effort to claw back Turner’s service time, the Nationals will start Danny Espinosa (0.4 BWARP in about 250 PA) over their top shortstop prospect. The Mets made a similar decision by acquiring Neil Walker instead of handing second base to the young, inexperienced Dilson Herrera, but Rizzo’s decision is distinguishable. Espinosa has proven to be a below average hitter without any upside over a period of six seasons. The only variation in his value has been due to playing time and defensive output. If he is an average defender at shortstop, he is, at best, an average player. In contrast, Walker was consistently above-average in Pittsburgh and will not be playing out of position; Espinosa played just 50 innings at shortstop last season. It’s difficult to justify stashing a high-upside option like Turner at Triple-A while Espinosa starts for three months.

The Nationals should be starting Turner for his upside, in large part, because they cannot rely on healthy, productive seasons from Jayson Werth or Ryan Zimmerman. Werth was very productive for a decade, but is now 37 years old and is overcoming wrist and shoulder injuries. Zimmerman, 31, has been constantly injured and was limited to just 95 games last year. This is where the the Nationals’ lack of depth becomes an issue. If Zimmerman and Werth cannot remain on the field and match their 2014 output–.294 TAv and .319 TAv, respectively–the Nationals are going to be in trouble. Why? Because the best alternative to each is Clint Robinson.

The Mets have similar injury concerns, but far more depth. Starters Travis d’Arnaud and David Wright have concerning injury histories that suggest neither will match their playing time projections (115 and 127 games, respectively). Currently, the Mets’ plan that Wright will start 130 games and thus his 127 game projection represents more or less the Mets’ best case scenario. Surprisingly, d’Arnaud is projected to be the most valuable Met position player, just a hair past Walker and Cespedes. However, the last time d’Arnaud played more than 115 games was as a Lakewood Blueclaw in 2009. Due to his propensity for injury it’s likely the Mets will rely on Kevin Plawecki. The Mets are lucky that the drop off from d’Arnaud and Wright to Plawecki and Flores wouldn’t devastate their season.  In both instances the Mets would only lose about .20 points of TAv with the defensive value being comparable. (Wright ain’t what he used to be, folks.)

The Mets’ depth should prevent a similar fate with their aging veteran in the outfield, Curtis Granderson. Granderson reinvented himself as a leadoff hitter last year and posted a 5.5 BWARP season after he struggled during his first year in Queens. Entering his age 35 season, Granderson is also the Met most likely to regress. Luckily, the Mets can rely on Juan Lagares as their “utility” outfielder to protect Granderson from left-handed pitching.

If Michael Conforto plays every day he may be the Met most likely to outperform his PECOTA projection. However, I am concerned that Terry the Tinkerer will stunt Conforto’s development by platooning him with Juan Lagares or–gasp–Eric Campbell. It seems obvious that Granderson should sit against left-handed pitchers given his age and career split, but Collins loves Granderson atop the Mets’ lineup and is unlikely to sit him. Instead, expect Collins to constantly rotate Lagares and de Aza into lineup at the expense of Conforto’s playing time.

To put the above visualization in context, last year Clayton Kershaw was projected for 5.3 BWARP and the top 10 pitchers excluding Kershaw are projected for 3.3 BWARP. The Mets and the Nationals are obviously stocked, both are the only teams with three pitchers in PECOTA’s top 25. Despite the hype surrounding Mets’ top three, Max Scherzer (third), Stephen Strasburg (20th), and Gio Gonzalez (25th) will more or less match Matt Harvey (eighth), Jacob deGrom (23rd), and Noah Syndergaard (24th). It wouldn’t surprise me if the Mets had three starters in the top 15 by year’s end. While both teams will rely heavily on their trios, each has enviable upside in the back of their rotation.

For the Mets, it is Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler. Injuries have stalled both players’ development, but each has the pedigree to greatly outperform their projections. Wheeler should join the Mets when his Tommy John rehab concludes in July, and if he stays on track he should easily surpass the 40-inning PECOTA projection after he replaces Colon in the rotation.

PECOTA believes that when Tanner Roark returns to the rotation this year he will continue to be a strike-throwing innings-eater. His upside is limited, however, by his inability to miss bats. The Nationals will be content if Roark can work deep into games and avoid home runs until Lucas Giolito is ready.

Unlike Trea Turner, the decision to break camp without Lucas Giolito in the rotation is defensible. Giolito has only thrown 50 innings above Double-A and with just 20 days off the 25-man roster the Nationals can secure an additional year of service time. After the service time clawback period lapses, the question becomes how long will Rizzo waits to call up the top pitching prospect in baseball. While Roark and Ross are serviceable, if Giolito is ready to contribute he should be called up immediately once the extra year of service time is secured–that way, the Nationals secure the benefit of as many of his 140 innings as possible.

Each of these teams have a clear path to the division title, but the Mets, due to their balance and depth, are in a better position to overcome the obstacles they’re faced with. Any team with Bryce Harper is a threat, but one must wonder if the burden of carrying these Nationals is just too much without help from Turner and Giolito.

Thanks to Andrew Mearns for visualizations.

Photo Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports