Las Vegas 51s (Triple-A)

Pitcher: P.J Conlon

If you pulled up P.J Conlon’s player page and looked solely at his career minor league stats: 2.85 ERA, 0.67 HR/9, 1.98 BB/9, you wouldn’t be wrong in thinking the Mets have another solid pitching prospect on their hands. What those stats won’t tell you though is that Conlon’s fastball averages just 86 mph; and that folks is why you don’t scout the stat line.

Conlon’s a former 13th round pick that’s surpassed all expectations thus far but honestly, no one’s quite sure how. Standing only 5’11” with a fastball that barely touches 90 mph, it’s honestly perplexing that we’ve even arrived at this point. In need of a spot starter in Cincinnati, the Mets added Conlon to the 40-man roster and he made his major league debut, allowing three runs in 3.2 innings.

Conlon pairs a good changeup with a funky delivery that generates some much-needed deception. The change sits in the mid to high 70s and, while it is his best offering, it just doesn’t generate enough whiffs for Conlon to cut it as a starter in the big leagues. One might think that if Conlon isn’t succeeding via the strikeout, he must be elite at inducing groundballs. That’s not his secret to success either though, as his career groundball rate stands at a middle of the pack 43.08%.

So how exactly has Conlon been able to achieve this level of success? It’s a great question that no one seems able to answer, not even the Mets. Although he’s not going to be a starter in the majors, Conlon has good career splits against lefties and could potentially fill a LOOGY role for some organization.

Hitter: Phillip Evans

I’m honestly not sure if Evans still has prospect eligibility (spoiler alert: he does!) but have you seen the 51s roster recently? It’s rougher than you can even imagine and the reason why Tim Tebow is talked about as a legitimate call-up candidate.

Evans was with the big league club just this Tuesday, but Jose Bautista took his roster spot and poor Phil has to wait for another chance. A former 15th round pick in the 2011 draft, the versatile Evans will turn 26 later this year, his seventh as a pro. He actually made the Opening Day roster but was sent down rather quickly in favor of an almost but not really healed Michael Conforto.

I saw Evans in Vegas last month and while I’m not his biggest fan, I’d much rather see him on the Mets bench than Bautista. Evans won a batting title in 2016 and is showing some improved power this season with nine home runs in 118 at-bats, but he’s yet to get an extended look in the big leagues. It seemed like he was finally going to get his chance when the Mets finally DL’d Yoenis Cespedes but nope, Jose Bautista!

I’m skeptical of Evans’ potential as a major leaguer long-term, but I think he’s deserving of a chance to show why he belongs. A utility man who can play passable infield defense, be an emergency catcher and has some pop is an intriguing player that can provide some value off the bench, especially in the National League. If only the team that employs Jose Reyes could use someone like that…

Binghamton Rumble Ponies (Double-A)

Pitcher: Marcos Molina

Where do I even begin on Marcos Molina? After flashing a plus fastball/slider combo in the lower depths of the system, Molina missed all of 2016 due to Tommy John surgery. Which is fine, considering Tommy John isn’t the death sentence for pitchers that it once was and Molina was still young.

The problem is we’re now two years removed from the operation and Molina’s stuff is still nowhere to be found. After a mediocre 2017 with Binghamton, the Mets sent Molina back again to repeat the level, hopefully with better results. It was a reasonable idea in theory, but the results have been disastrous thus far and that’s a big problem considering Molina’s occupying a 40-man spot.

With Anthony Swarzak seemingly close to a return and in need of a reinstatement to the 40-man, there’s a high possibility that it’s Molina whose roster spot is in jeopardy. That’s because Molina’s been downright awful this season with both Binghamton and Las Vegas. In 36.2 innings for the Rumble Ponies, Molina’s got a 6.14 ERA to go along with a putrid 6.38 K/9 and 3.93 BB/9. He was even worse in Vegas, holding a 9.35 ERA and a 5.19 BB/9 in just eight and two-thirds innings. The possibility of converting Molina to the bullpen is becoming increasingly likely with each passing day, especially considering the Mets are running out of time with him. Having never been known for possessing good command, a move to a relief role could suit both parties well, and it’s likely the only scenario in which Molina keeps his roster spot.

Hitter: Jhoan Urena

It’s hard to believe, but this is Urena’s seventh season as a pro and we’re still waiting for the breakout season above Low-A. I’ve seen Urena a bunch this season and have come away from each look wanting to like him a lot more than I really do. Urena has the look of a future big leaguer with some deceptive athleticism to boot, but he’s yet to put it all together and I’m increasingly worried he never will.

For starters, Urena is awful in right field, where he’s started the majority of games this season for the Rumble Ponies. He’s also played third base and while he’s better there, I have him as a 35, which is just an emergency starter. That means Urena is destined for a future in left or at first, positions where he’s really going to have to hit to justify his position, and I’m just not confident that he’s going to be able to do that.

I should mention that Urena’s battled hamate bone injuries in the past, a pesky injury known to sap power from hitters. Urena has just three home runs this season, which isn’t a surprise considering his swing doesn’t have much loft, but game power is an important part of the profile at first base or left field. That being said, the swing is max effort in all counts and Urena strikes out too much for a guy with this little power.

I’m down on Urena’s chances as a future major league contributor, but I’m still holding out some hope that he can add some more power to his game. It’s been seven seasons though and we’ve yet to see it, so it’s hard to be too hopeful here.

Port St. Lucie Mets (High-A)

Pitcher: Ryder Ryan

Acquired from Cleveland in last year’s Jay Bruce trade, Ryan is off to a really nice start with Port St. Lucie. In his first 16 appearances this season, Ryan’s got a 1.77 ERA and a 23:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 20.1 innings.

I know what you’re thinking: a reliever acquired at the 2017 deadline must be a fastball/slider guy, and well, you’re correct. Ryan sits in the mid-90s with his fastball and complements it with his slider, but not much else. He’s currently running a strikeout rate of 30% to go along with a 6.5% walk rate, which bodes well for a potential future as a high leverage reliever. Ryan is 23 and in A ball but he pitched all of one inning in college, so there aren’t really age concerns here.

What’s really interesting is that Ryan’s numbers were pretty average with the Cleveland organization, but since the trade he’s seemingly found a new gear. The Mets have a proven track record of developing this profile, so Ryan couldn’t have found a better landing spot than New York. If Ryan keeps this up, he’s going to be looking at a promotion to Double-A Binghamton by year’s end. He’s certainly a name to keep an eye on as the season progresses.

Columbia Fireflies (A)

Hitter: Wuilmer Becerra

Becerra came over as an additional piece in the R.A Dickey trade that brought Noah Syndergaard and Travis d’Arnaud to New York back in 2012. He’s flashed potential when healthy but injuries have really slowed his development down, and that’s why we’re talking optimistically about a 23-year-old in A ball.

Becerra’s noteworthy skill is his hit tool, which looks like a 60 at peak. He’s struggled with shoulder injuries, including but not limited to a torn labrum, that have robbed him of his power and ability to throw.

Becerra was held back in extended spring training and has only played five games with the Fireflies, so we don’t have any new information on him yet. If he stays healthy though, this is the sort of player that could break out and turn heads by the end of the year. We’ll need to see a power spike to improve the future outlook, but if he stays healthy, don’t be surprised if Becerra ends the season in Binghamton.

Photo credit: David Kohl – USA Today Sports

(statistics from games played through 4/12/17)

Las Vegas 51s (AAA)

Amed Rosario, SS: 11-28, 1 BB, 3 K

Now we have about 20 weeks of these to get through, and I can’t just write up Rosario and Smith every week for the 51s. But hey, when you hit .400 your first week in Triple-A as a 21-year-old, that is going to the get the attention of this column. Smith did the same, but as long as Lucas Duda is healthy and hitting balls over the batter’s eye in Philly, the Vegas first baseman may be waiting until September for a call-up. I mentioned in our 51s preview that Rosario might be best the major league option if Cabrera has to miss any extended time later this year, but the Mets have a bit of an elephant in the room at the hot corner right now as Jose Reyes continues to struggle at the plate. This may just be a protracted slump, but Reyes has been late on fastballs and looked completely flummoxed by anything spinning. The Mets have been very conservative when calling up their better prospects—Super 2 deadline should be around June 20, but who’s counting—and would likely run through Wilmer Flores and TJ Rivera before calling up Rosario and bumping Cabrera over to the 5. But what could you expect from Rosario in the majors right now?

Rosario has toned down what was a very complicated hand path in the low minors and has the wrists to handle major league velocity. He’s an aggressive hitter, and I think major league arms will be able to exploit that. The power is probably a few years away from really manifesting in games, but it’s potentially average. The shortstop glove is ready, although he is more athlete than polish in the field. This sounds a lot to me like Alcides Escobar which is a comp that has come up on him as a downside from those that like him, and a likely from those a bit lower. It’s also a comp likely to elicit eye rolls from Mets fans, but Esky had several seasons as a good regular at shortstop; for Rosario to be that now—as a 21-year-old with fewer than 300 PA above A-ball—is a huge endorsement. From the Mets point of view though, it might not be an argument to start his clock early.

Binghamton…sigh…Rumble Ponies (AA)

Corey Taylor, RHP: 2.1 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K

Now we have about 20 weeks of these to get through, and I can’t just write up, uh…Nido….and…Guillorme? every week for the Rumble Ponies. I did get my first look at Corey Taylor as a pro last week, so let’s go with him. He’s a bit better than your run-of-the-mill “91-95 with a slider” guy who generally characterizes the “better dudes” in Double-A bullpens. He was 93-96 with a slider! The slider was just okay last weekend, but fall reports on the pitch were strong. And Taylor was the last arm into a five-and-a-half hour doubleheader in sub-40-degree temperatures, so if he could even feel his fingers, he was streets ahead of me at that point. The command profile is rough as he has a high-effort, uphill delivery, but it’s a major-league-quality arm. How much more refinement happens will be the difference between being up to snuff as a middle reliever and big league bats leaving him tattered and torn.

St. Lucie Mets (A+)

Wuilmer Becerra, OF?: 8-20, 2 2B, 2 BB, 6 K

When I filed the BP 101 last Christmas I mentioned to Craig a few days later that there were seven rankings I already hated. We are up to 14 rankings I hate now—and that doesn’t include Alex Reyes tearing his UCL the day after we published the list on the site, plus three guys I really regret not having on the list. I’m still pretty happy with our Mets Top 10, but if there is one ranking I could take back, it would be Becerra at #10. He shouldn’t be that much lower—and 10 prospects is an arbitrary cutoff anyway—but I’d feel better on April 14 if it was Tomas Nido, or Luis Carpio, or even Ali Sanchez at the back of the list. You can count 2016 as a lost year for Becerra. He struggled with back and shoulder issues all season, and couldn’t play the field or hit for any power. Yet I still got positive reports on the hit tool before he was shut down for labrum surgery. Well it’s 2017 now and he still can’t play the field, he still hasn’t shown corner outfield pop since the first half of 2015, and and the reports I’ve gotten are much worse. He’s a bit thicker, a bit slower, inexorably a year older. Twenty-two in the Florida State League isn’t old for the level, but it isn’t young either. I’ll once again cite noted prospect evaluator Haruki Murakami: “Unfortunately, the clock is ticking, the hours are going by. The past increases, the future recedes. Possibilities decreasing, regrets mounting.” The likely outcome here was always a fourth outfielder with some platoon pop. Now that looks like a good outcome.

Columbia Fireflies (A)

Colin Holderman, RHP: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 11 K

Every year at the mothership we give out “The Vogelsong Awards” for the best players that didn’t even get a mention in that year’s BP Annual. I may need to institute my own version of that for the best Mets prospect that we didn’t bother to include in our preseason affiliate previews. It may end up getting named the Holderman Award. In my defense, Columbia had by far the most dudes to write about, and the rotation is especially crowded with prospecty arms. And I did consider writing about Holderman, who was projected to go much higher than ninth round before the stuff evaporated due to some arm issues last spring. The Mets gave him $400,000 to keep him from transferring to Mississippi State with the hope that some workload management and pro instruction might get the fastball up to 96 again. That might be aspirational, but Holderman did look too good for the South Atlantic League in his first outing. He’s toned down the Arroyo leg kick part of his Arroyo-cum-Addison-Reed mechanics, and a pretty good Hickory lineup was overmatched by his fastball/breaking ball combo. The Mets usually keep guys in the A-ball levels for a full first half, but Holderman may test their resolve here. At a minimum, he probably will get a blurb in our 2018 Binghamton…sigh…Rumble Ponies preview.

Photo Credit: Steve Mitchell – USA Today Sports

Joining Justin Dunn in the St. Lucie rotation to open the season—and hopefully in Binghamton before the year is over—is Marcos Molina (#15). Like Dunn, the 22-year-old pitcher comes with questions as to his ability to remain as a starter, yet those doubts are even louder with Molina. While athletic with plus stuff, Molina’s mechanics are far from ideal as he makes his return from Tommy John surgery. After sitting in the upper 80s with his fastball on the minor league backfields at the end of spring training, Molina has found his way back onto the disabled list to open the season. The complete lack of involvement of his lower body in his delivery puts an exorbitant amount of stress on his arm, which is unlikely to be sustainable for a starting pitcher. While his mechanics are not ideal for a relief pitcher—any kind of pitcher, really—shorter stints out of the pen would put less stress on Molina’s arm and allow him to sit closer to his peak velocity. While Molina is older now than this comp was then, Roberto Osuna’s 2015 promotion from a single-A starting pitcher who had undergone Tommy John surgery to a late-inning role in a major league bullpen is not out of the question for Molina. While that is obviously not what the Mets are planning to do with him at the moment, moving Molina to the bullpen sooner rather than later might make the most sense for all parties. With his stuff, Molina could legitimately pitch out of a major league bullpen before the 2017 season is finished.

Best known as the “non-elite prospect” the Mets acquired in the R.A. Dickey trade in 2012, the now-22-year-old Wuilmer Becerra (#10) has made the Baseball Prospectus Mets Top Ten two seasons running. Becerra, who underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in July, was protected from the Rule 5 Draft this winter despite not yet being ready to play the field to open the 2017 season. As the projected everyday designated hitter for the St. Lucie Mets for the first stretch of the season, Becerra will look to combine his above-average raw power with the plus hitting ability he has flashed in his recent seasons. While dealing with the shoulder injury during the first half of last season, Becerra hit only a single home run for St. Lucie in 2016, which isn’t going to work for a major league right fielder, his usual defensive home. However, if Becerra is able to put the whole package together, the tools are loud enough for him to project as an everyday right fielder in the majors. But even beyond the injury concerns, it’s a package with plenty of risk at the moment. A healthy and productive season that ends in the upper minors, highlighted by an increase in in-game power, could propel Becerra further up the Mets prospect lists and potentially onto global prospect lists next winter.

The Mets’ 2015 eighth-round pick out of Stetson University, Patrick Mazeika is a bat-first prospect whose ultimate future value is going to be determined by his defensive home. Mazeika, who has walked almost as many times as he’s struck out so far in his pro career—and gets an additional OBP boost from his Brandon Guyer-esque attraction to pitched baseballs—also offers a potential major-league-quality hit tool. If he is able to stick behind the plate, that is a good offensive starting point for a major league catcher. If he is forced to move off the position, which is a legitimate possibility given his current below-average glove and 6’3″ frame, he veers dangerously close to non-prospect status. His relative lack of power and line drive approach would not play well at first base—a position he has played some in his career—and the bat isn’t much more attractive in a corner outfield spot; he may not have the defensive chops for that anyway. His most realistic path to the major leagues is as a bat-first catcher whose high OBP makes up for his mediocre home run power and lackluster defense behind the plate.

2016 second-round pick Peter Alonso (#19), however, does not lack for power. Alonso has the best raw pop in the entire Mets minor league system. A right-handed hitting and fielding first baseman, he represents a bit of a rare breed as a prospect. Rarely are right-handed hitting first basemen considered to be prospects worthy of a high draft pick and the $909,200 signing bonus that Alonso received. Given that profile, his prospect status and baseball future relies solely on his bat and his ability to reach into his 70 raw power in games. After jumping over the South Atlantic League to open his first full professional season, Alonso will come to the Florida State League with the expectation that his bat will carry him into the upper minors and eventually to the major leagues. If he is able to adjust to better pitching than he saw in the SEC and shorten his swing from what he has shown to this past, he has a chance to develop into a middle-of-the-order bat sooner rather than later.

After selecting RHP Andrew Church (#21) with the 48th pick in the 2013 draft, the early returns for the Mets were less than stellar. At the end of the 2015 season, the now-21-year-old Church had yet to get out of short-season ball, and only struck out 75 batters in 132 professional innings.  2016 was a different story. Church emerged from extended spring training on May 24 to strike out nine batters in five innings for Columbia in his 2016 debut. For the season, he started 15 games, posting a 2.92 ERA and an improved, yet still pedestrian, 20.2% K-rate. Church, whose fastball touches as high as the mid 90s and slider flashes plus, will look to build on his 2016 campaign with an aggressive Double-A assignment. As Jarrett Seidler wrote recently, this season will be Church’s last before he is eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, so his performance—or lack thereof—in 2017 should give us a lot more clarity on his major league future.

Yet another 2016 draft pick making the jump from the Brooklyn Cyclones to the St. Lucie Mets in 2017 is fifth-round pick Colby Woodmansee. Woodmansee—who, given his tall frame, is likely to eventually move off of shortstop—skips over the South Atlantic League despite a mediocre 2016 season in his time at both the collegiate and professional levels. Following a strong sophomore year at Arizona State, Woodmansee was penciled in as a first or second round draft pick. However, a lack of improvement in his junior season allowed him to slip to the Mets in the fifth round, where they are hoping he can show again why he was considered by some to be a first round talent just a few months before the draft…St. Lucie’s lineup will also feature the return of 23-year-old John Mora. Mora, who got some burn in major league spring training, has limited power and average-at-best tools elsewhere. If he doesn’t end this season in Binghamton or Vegas, his chances of making the major leagues down the road can be considered minimal at best…the bullpen will feature Tyler Bashlor, who received a well-over-slot $550,000 signing bonus after being selected in the 11th round in 2013. Bashlor boasts a fastball that can touch 98 mph and a developing breaking ball. He has a chance to rise quickly to the majors if he is able to stay healthy and keep his walks under control.

Photo Credit: Reinhold Matay – USA Today Sports

The Top 10

1. Steven Matz, LHP

Current Assignment: New York Mets

2016 to date: 60.1 IP, 2.39 ERA, 25% K, 5.3% BB, 54 H, 4 HR

Well this has gone well.

Before our national list came out, I argued hard for Matz over Julio Urias; I also think there was an case for Matz as the best pitching prospect in baseball over even Giolito. Being able to do it in the majors matters, and Matz had already shown flashes of that. He has taken another step forward this season–and my No. 2 starter projection on him might even end up low–although the command needs to get more consistent and he still has his own durability questions to answer. 30 starts and 180 major league innings this year will go a long way towards silencing the last concerns about the Mets southpaw.

Graduated (and pretty pretty good)

2. Amed Rosario, SS

Current Assignment: Advanced-A St. Lucie

2016 to date: 262 PA, .307/.359/.445, 7.6% BB, 13% K

Rosario is repeating the Florida State League, but is still one of the youngest players in the Sunshine State. On the preseason list I noted that his defensive tools were more advanced than his offensive ones, but the bat has begun to catch up in a big way. He’ll be in Binghamton in the second half, where I will get to see him live for the first time since 2014, but we already have big internal reports on him, and I had a scout sing his praises to me recently as well. The mothership starts our midseason top 50 list discussion soon, and Rosario will be in the conversation for the top half.

Stock Up

3. Luis Carpio, SS/2B

Current Assignment: Minor League Disabled List

Carpio was the most aggressive ranking on this list. I definitely stand by it, and I think he’s still a top-10 prospect in the system even after shoulder surgery that will keep him out for the whole year. The issue is with his throwing arm which may accelerate a move to the right side of the infield, but we won’t know that (or anything else) until he gets back on the field on the field in 2017.

Stock Down

4. Gavin Cecchini, SS 

Current Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas

2016 to date: 177 PA, .314/.375/.409, 9% BB, 12.4% K

All Cecchini has done for the past season-and-a-half is hit. Well, he’s hit enough to be a valuable up-the-middle bat in the majors at least. He tinkered with a large leg kick in A-ball, and while that did give him a little more pop into the gaps, it left him vulnerable to offspeed. When I saw him the next year in Binghamton, he was using a simple toe tap to close from a slightly open stance and a flatter overall swing plane. This has improved his contact ability, but sapped whatever gap power he might have had. Cecchini is mostly a singles hitter nowadays, so I do wonder if major league arms will challenge him more once the book gets out, cutting into his on-base numbers despite his strong strike zone control.

The defense was always supposed to be the sure thing for Cecchini. He was drafted as an advanced shortstop glove, and although no pundits promised Gold Gloves, he was seen as about a sure thing to stick at short as you will find coming out of high school. But as a pro, Cecchini has struggled with the responsibilities on the left side of the infield. The arm is short for the position, and can be scattershot at times, especially when he has to reach back for more. The range is a step short as well, and he struggles with his actions at faster game speeds. He’s played every one of his professional games at shortstop, but it is hard to see him being more than a once-a-week guy there in the majors. At second base, there probably isn’t enough offense to be a starter unless he hits .280. But there is a major league role to be found when you can hit a bit and play up-the-middle.

Stock Holding

5. Dominic Smith, 1B

Current Assignment: Double-A Binghamton

2016 to date: 241 PA, .273/.324/.386, 7.1% BB, 15.8% K

Of course you should never scout the stat line.

But sometimes there are reasons for the stat line.

Stock Down

6. Brandon Nimmo, OF 

Current Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas

2016 to date: 222 PA, .325/.403/.521, 11.3% BB, 16.7% K

Nimmo’s hot May and June has piqued Mets fans interest again, but there doesn’t appear to be a ton of real change here (unless you buy into the newest offseason swing/stance tweak). In fact, his profile really hasn’t changed in five years. Nimmo’s the Casey Stengel quip come to life; in five years he’s actualized his chance to be 23. That might sound pessimistic, but while he hasn’t figured out how to hit lefties, or added as much power as projected, Nimmo has several skills that will serve him well in the majors. He won’t kill you in centerfield, and he can get on-base and hit for average power against righties. He isn’t Jose Fernandez, and he isn’t left-handed Hunter Pence, a common comp during his first couple pro seasons, but Nimmo is potentially a useful long-side platoon bat.

I do think the risk here does get understated at times though. His overly passive approach might fall apart against major league pitching, but his first half in Vegas is a step in the right direction. Like Cecchini, Nimmo may end up a bit of a disappointment as a high first-round pick, but both should have significant major league careers.

Stock Holding

7. Desmond Lindsay, OF

Current Assignment: Extended Spring Training

I had hoped the Mets might push Lindsay to Columbia this year. It would have been an extremely aggressive assignment given the background (learning a new position, missed most of his senior season), but he impressed me in a brief cameo for Brooklyn at the end of last summer. A minor leg injury and a couple hit-by-pitches in minor league camp put the kibosh on that though. Lindsay will now head back to Coney Island, surrounded by a much, much better crop of prospects than he was last year.

Stock Holding

8. Wuilmer Becerra, OF

Current Assignment: High-A St. Lucie

2016 to date: 167 PA, .338/.370/.409, 4.2% BB, 15.6% K

Man, heck if I know.

For most of his pro career, Becerra looked like he was built right to factory specs for “right field profile:” A tall Venezuelan with a projectable body, he checked off every box: plus speed, arm, and pop. He was raw at the plate, but had a plan and a swing by the time he got to Savannah and you could easily see him growing into an everyday bat in a corner. Then he went to St. Lucie and hit like Tony Gwynn for two months.

Now it does go back further than that. The Savannah staff made some changes to his stance in 2015, and in the second half there he hit .291/.348/.355. Savannah’s home park was brutally tough on power, but that makes just 22 extra-base hits in his last 94 games and only one home run. If you want to hand wave some of the power outage, he has dealt with shoulder and back issues in 2016. I also got a positive scout quote on him recently, but there is a reason we don’t make Tony Gwynn comps.

Stock the heck if I know

9. Robert Gsellman, RHP

Current Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas

2016 to date: 69.1 IP, 17% K, 5.9% BB, 67 H, 2 HR

Gsellman added a slider this spring in major league camp, and that, along with a small bump in velocity, boosted his K-rate from 12.7% in 2015 to 17% so far in this year’s campaign. That’s still nothing to write home about, but the slider would flash plus in my April look, and the organization has done a very good job developing this type of arm recently. The future projection here hasn’t moved all that much, but he’s another step closer to the majors after his recent promotion to Vegas–although his first start didn’t go well … welcome to the PCL!–and a better bet to reach that OFP now.

Stock Up

10. Ali Sanchez, C

Current Assignment: Extended Spring Training

No real surprise here. Sanchez is a long, long way away, between being a catcher and having just come stateside to the complex last year. He could start at either Kingsport or Brooklyn, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Mets push him to the New York-Penn League to get some experience catching their new crop of arms.

Stock Holding

The five who were just interesting

Matt Reynolds, IF

Current Assignment: New York Mets

Reynolds was listed here in the winter due to the likelihood he would be able to help out the 2016 team. And he’s bounced back and forth between Vegas and Flushing this year, functioning as the 25th man and extra infield glove. He’s never hit all that much in Vegas, considering that it is Vegas, so he has fallen behind guys like Travis Taijeron, Ty Kelly, and TJ Rivera in #MetsTwitter’s ever-changing #FREE________ hierarchy. But he is younger and a better defender than those three, and is likely to have a major league job until the Mets trade for Juan Uribe in six weeks.

Raphael Ramirez, OF

Current Assignment: Extended Spring Training

Ramirez will be flanking Desmond Lindsay in Brooklyn with either Arnaldo Berrios or the next of our interesting five.

Ricardo Cespedes, OF

Current Assignment: Extended Spring Training

I think Cespedes heads to Kingsport, where it will be easier to get him centerfield reps (although I don’t see him sticking up the middle long-term). The Mets could get aggressive though and assign him to Brooklyn and Lindsay to Savannah. A lot of these decisions down to how guys look in extended Spring Training.

Gabriel Ynoa, RHP

Current Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas 51s

Ynoa’s profile is exactly the type that you’d expect to get hammered in Vegas. He’s a strike-thrower with a 55 fastball and nothing else you would expect to miss bats or even barrels. And through 12 starts in 2016, Ynoa has again only struck out 12 percent of the batters he’s faced, and has seen his walk rate creep up . Yet somehow he has bobbed and weaved his way to a sub-3.00 ERA. Despite his success so far, Ynoa’s profile hasn’t really changed. He offers a four-pitch mix, with an average change and two below-average breakers. We are well-past the point of dreaming on a major league slider or curve here, but with a lower arm slot and a low-impact delivery, it’s possible you could develop a Robles-like reliever. For now, Ynoa will continue to start as long as the smoke and mirrors act holds up. And hey, it’s beats getting shelled, however you do it.

Marcos Molina, RHP

Current Assignment: Minor League Disabled List

Molina is still a few months away from throwing off a mound after Tommy John surgery late last summer.

Five more who are interesting … now

As Toby Hyde noted when we chatted with him in Episode 5 of For All You Kids Out There, one of the notable surprises for the Mets affiliates in the first half has been … the lack of surprises. But here’s five more names of note for the second half of the minor league season:

Andrew Church, RHP

Current Assignment: High-A St. Lucie Mets

The Mets second round pick in 2013 was a bit of a head-scratcher at the time. No one had really seen him pitch much in high school.  Coming into 2016, Church had thrown just 132 innings across three season, after losing parts of the last two seasons to injuries. And all of the three were spent in short-season ball. He popped back up a few weeks ago in Columbia, sitting 90-95 and throwing a slider. After two dominant starts in the South Atlantic League, he was bumped up to St. Lucie. He is still very much an unknown quantity, but in a pitching-depleted system, a healthy Church certainly qualifies as interesting.

Chris Flexen, RHP

Current Assignment: High-A St. Lucie Mets

Flexen spent much of 2015 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, but once he got back on the field he showed plus fastball velocity and a developing curve. He could have easily made the interesting list before the season and had an argument for third-best pitching prospect in the system (not that it was a high bar). His 2016 has been uneven, but he has put together a string of strong starts recently and is still only 21. His long-term future is likely in the bullpen, given the fringy command and lack of a third pitch, but a strong second half in the Florida State League could get him top 10 consideration for 2017.

Kevin McGowan, RHP

Current Assignment: Double-A Binghamton Mets

When I saw Kevin McGowan in Brooklyn in 2013, he was a tall drink of water that could touch 95 and flashed a decent curve. After 190 innings of mediocre work as a starter in St. Lucie across 2014-15, the Mets converted McGowan to relief this season and he’s proceeded to strike out 27 percent of the batters he has faced, and walked just 3 percent. That’ll play. McGowan is still 92-95, but now uses a slider as his primary secondary. If he can keep missing bats in the upper minors, he has a real shot to be the first Franklin Pierce alum to play in the majors.

David Thompson, 3B

Current Assignment: Single-A Columbia Fireflies

I generally give guys coming straight from a long college season into the Penn League a bit of a mulligan. It’s their first time playing deep into the summer, and they are learning the specific rigors of pro baseball on the fly. That said, Thompson looked as bad as any first-or-second-day Mets college draftee I have seen on Coney Island. The bat looked slow, and he was overmatched by short-season offspeed stuff.

After a full offseason and a spring in the complex, Thompson has come out blazing in Columbia, hitting .296/.352/.487. The over-the-fence power that he showed in college hasn’t shown up in the pros yet, but 20 doubles in 50 games is a good sign. Thompson is a first baseman long term given his range and shoulder issues, and this may very well be just another example of a polished college guy whacking the Sally league, but it beats writing about another future reliever.

Ivan Wilson, OF 

Current Assignment: Single-A Columbia Fireflies

Wilson has long been a personal concern. When I saw him in Kingsport in 2014 he showed off a toolset that was the best in the system. Easy plus run and arm, you could throw a 70 on the raw if you were so inclined, and he looked like he’d be a good centerfielder down the line. If he could even hit a little, that would be a slam dunk top five prospect in the system, any system.

Just one small problem: he couldn’t hit.

I sat on him for three games that summer and he hit three absolute bombs, but he struggled mightily to pick up spin even at that level, striking out even 47 percent of the time in the Appalachian League. 2015 was marred by injuries, and I was a little surprised to see him pop up in Columbia this year. He’s gotten the K-rate down to 33 percent (which isn’t good, but better than I expected) and the tools are still in there. There still may not even be a Double-A player in here, but if you want a guy to dream on, Wilson’s given you a glimmer.

***

So with Matz’s graduation, and the lack of breakout guys, the Mets system is a bit down from where it was even in April. But four top 100 picks in this year’s draft should help replenish the thin system, and make the Brooklyn Cyclones a must-follow over the rest of the summer.

Photo Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

…

Eh, it’s still early. At this point, we’re still in wait and see mode when it comes to statistical performances.

Triple-A

The “Prospects” aren’t hitting much.

In 19 games in April, Brandon Nimmo hit .260/.333/.315 with seven walks and 18 strikeouts. One pretty good sign that the season is still young: Nimmo raised his batting average 64 points in the final final five games of the month by going 8-for-17 with two doubles. Again, Nimmo is developing a platoon split, hitting nearly .300 with a .375 on-base percentage against righties while going 3-for-20 (.150) with one walk and 10 strikeouts against southpaws. If you were the kind of person who wondered whether Nimmo would have the offensive chops (both hit tool and power), to play everyday in the big leagues, April will not be terribly encouraging.  

The Mets decided last winter that Neil Walker made more sense at second base than handing the job to Dilson Herrera. After Walker bopped nine homers in the big leagues in April, and Herrera hit .258/.279/.364 with seven doubles and no homers in the Pacific Coast League, that looks like a wise call in hindsight. Herrera has been earning less than a walk a week (two in 17 games). That’s not a great sign given that MLB pitchers exploited his aggressiveness in 2015.

Meanwhile, Herrera’s double-play partner–Gavin Cecchini–had a similar batting average, but arrived at the outcome in dissimilar fashion. He showed outstanding strike zone control (11 walks/11 strikeouts) in 20 games on his way to hitting .258/.364/.333 with two doubles and one home run. Yeah, sure, shortstops don’t have to hit 20 homers a year, but at what point does below-average power become a major liability?

The MLB depth guys are looking more, well, depth-y

Matt Reynolds, who’s now 25, hit .299/.379/.468 in 20 games mostly at third base with a few games at short and second. This doesn’t change any of my thinking about Reynolds, who I think would be a fine backup infielder. Should the Mets tire of Eric Campbell (1-for-10 in April), they could turn to Reynolds anytime.

Travis Taijeron, in his age-27 season, hit .299/.415/.522 with 10 extra-base hits and 20 strikeouts in 20 games. Mets fans whose memories go all the way back to Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Matt den Dekker, know what this looks like in the big leagues when a pretty good athlete in the OF strikes out this much in Triple-A. (Editor’s Note: Who else can’t believe those two have regular big-league jobs today?)

Speaking of strikeouts on the mound, Gabriel Ynoa isn’t getting enough of them. His 1.48 ERA looks sparkly, but his 12/9 K/BB ratio is a duller shade. It’s just tough, if not impossible to pitch in the big leagues with a 12.3 percent strikeout rate.

Double-A

Smith’s Whiffs

Lets compare Dominic Smith’s 2015 to his 2016.

You’re going to see versions of this chart again, friend. In his first month in Double-A, Smith is hitting for a smidge more power than he did in 2015, but his strikeout rate has climbed nine percentage points, an increase of 60 percent. That’s not good.

Go-Go Gsellman

We’re really interested in guys who are doing something differently in April than they were in the past, or than we had reason to suspect. While Smith’s strikeouts meet that criteria, so too do Robert Gsellman’s.

Here, we have an explanation as well. He’s learning the Warthen slider. It’s still a work in progress, but there is progress, at least enough to impress Jeff Paternostro last Sunday.

Akeel Morris’ Heel Turn

Remember when Mets fans wanted to talk about this righthander from the US Virgin Islands? Well, he allowed eight runs on two homers and eight walks in 10.1 innings in Double-A in April. Yeah, yeah, #SSS and all, but if he cannot demonstrate legitimate command, upper level hitters will pounce.  

High-A

Rosy (Amed) Rosario

The 20-year-old shortstop finished April by hitting .305/.340/.537 with five triples (!) and three home runs. There’s little to critique in this line or his work at the plate. He’s also become an active presence on twitter, where he seems to enjoy engaging with fans.

At the risk of slicing the apple too thin, he didn’t draw a walk in his first 10 games, but admitted on Twitter later in the month that he was working on his plate discipline.

Getting deeper into counts. Taking more walks. https://t.co/S5WRzFeT6Y

— Amed Rosario (@Amed_Rosario) April 25, 2016

 Oh, and he finished the month by earning walks in five of his next 13 games. That’s a welcome–if not damn exciting–development. 

Becerra’s Singles

I was excited about Wuilmer Becerra because I saw a young guy with a big league frame, who was strong and fast and already had easy power. I wondered whether he’d hit for average. And in 2016, he’s hit for average but no power. Oh, well. Through May 2nd, on the heels of an eight-game hitting streak, the 21-year-old is raking at .394/.437/.470. He leads the FSL in batting average by 49 (!) points but did not homer in the month. He’s also striking out far less than he used to. Check out the three year trends since the Appalachian League in 2014.

Becerra the singles hitter is a lot less interesting than the guy who looked like he could threatening to hit 25 homers in a season. Still the power’s in there. The question is whether he can add it back into his more contact-driven approach.  

Chris Flexen

Chris Flexen has made four starts. In each start, his opponents have only scored in one inning against him. The bad news was that in the first three starts, they hung crooked numbers on him (three runs twice and four runs once). In his fourth, he limited the damage to one run. Call it progress? Add it all up, and he’s doing ok: 3.76 ERA, 19 K/6 BB. While the 17.4 percent strikeout rate isn’t much to brag about, his 5.5 percent walk rate is a nice continuation of last year’s 5.2 percent mark with Savannah … and it is light years better (or half) of 2014’s 11.6 percent walk rate as a Sand Gnat. There’s a big league fastball in here, so that makes him one to watch.

Low-A

Vinny Sienna

I’d be remiss not to recognize 22-year-old 2B Vinny Sienna here. The UConn product is a little old for the SAL, but he hit .362/.495/.536 in April with 19 walks against 20 strikeouts in 22 games. I’ll believe he’s a guy when he does it in Double-A.

Milton Ramos

Drafted for his defense, the shortstop hit a meager .207/.270/.259 in 18 games for the Fireflies. Meh.

David Thompson

The 21-year-old former football player is showing some pop (12 XBH in 23 games) in an April in which he hit .301/.371/.506. That’s a nice start.

Luck of the Irish

Also, lefty PJ Conlon, who is trying to become the first Irish-born big leaguer since 1945, got going in the right direction with a 1.14 ERA and an 18/1 K/BB ratio in his 23.7 innings of work. It’s worth pointing out that finesse lefties (Mark Cohoon), or really any lefties who can spin a breaking ball, can have considerable success in the SAL. Still if Conlon, who moved to California at the age of two, succeeds, we can have more examples of Irish writing about baseball including such highlights as: “Conlon has work to do before he lines out for the New York Mets first team.” Also, apparently his uncle was a boxing “guru” in Ireland.

Also, I don’t know what you’d call this color (electric yellow? Neon awesome?) but it looks great on the Fireflies, and as a pleasant side benefit, surely offends the stodgiest among us.

Photo Credit: Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports

(stats from games played between 4/13/16 and 4/19/16)

Dilson Herrera, 2B (Las Vegas 51s / Triple-A): 9-30, 3 2B, 3 R, 5 RBI, 2 BB, 4 K, 2 SB, CS

What are the Mets going to do with Dilson Herrera? This is a rhetorical question I will not be answering in this little blurb, mostly because I have no special knowledge to proffer. If they weren’t going to extend Murphy, the relatively low delta of Neil Walker was a good one-year option in a season where the team expected to compete. Herrera has looked overmatched at time in the majors (especially when pitchers elevated their fastball against him), but his playing time was sporadic in his 2014 and 2015 stints with the big club. He isn’t considered a “prospect” anymore, so gets written about less at sites like, well, this one. If he were still a prospect, he would have slotted in between Matz and Rosario on my Top 10 list as a role 55 second baseman with a broad base of average or better tools, but nothing other than run registering as plus.

To try and answer the question posed: I would guess the Mets want to ride Walker for one good season (so far, so good), extend him a qualifying offer, recoup the draft pick, and then give Herrera the reins in 2017. But you could have easily composed the same sentence about in 2015, just find and replace “Walker” with “Murphy.” You could also argue that this would be an ideal year to work in Herrera, as the Mets have a strong offense otherwise, and could hide a month or two of growing pains at towards the bottom of their lineup. But he is still just 22, and hasn’t spent that much time in the upper minors due to some nagging injuries in 2015. The skill set only really plays at second base, so you can’t sneak him into a hole that opens up somewhere in the infield. As long as Neil Walker remains healthy, Herrera will be in Las Vegas, and the 2016 offseason will look a lot like the 2015 one for the Colombian infielder.

Luis Mateo, RHP (Binghamton Mets / Double-A): 4 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, BB, 2 K

The 2012 Brooklyn Cyclones were a fun team for prospect watchers. They featured two first-round picks in Brandon Nimmo and Kevin Plawecki, and at shortstop was Phil Evans, who had gotten second-round money as a California prep in the 2011 draft. However, it was the Brooklyn rotation that caught people’s attention. Two of the six starters have already made the majors (Luis Cessa and Hansel Robles), and Gabriel Ynoa seems likely to join them at some point this season, but Mateo was widely considered to be the best prospect arm of the group. I never really got it. I saw a lot of that Cyclones team and I had him clearly behind Ynoa as a prospect, and I can’t say I am shocked Robles beat him to the majors.

Mateo had been signed three times as an IFA, the first two deals derailed by a fake birth certificate and a bad medical. The Mets grabbed him as a 21-year-old, and he was expected to move quickly. He was dominant on Coney Island, but always looked like a reliever. The arm action was awful, and there was effort throughout every part of the delivery. Even with all that he’d only touch 95-96, sitting 91-94 for the most part, and bleeding velocity throughout his outings. The slider was fine, more than enough to dominate short-season bats, but it would only flash plus a couple times a start. The reports I read coming off that season sounded like a very different pitcher than the one I saw.

Mateo made it to Double-A in 2013, but quickly went down with a torn UCL. He didn’t look close to all the way back in a 2014 rehab stint, and was shut down late that summer. He worked his way back again in 2015, and this year is in the Binghamton ‘pen as a 26-year-old.  Unfortunately he looks like the same pitcher he was in Brooklyn. The mechanics are still rough; the arm action is painful to watch at times. But the primary issue is this: the stuff just hasn’t improved since his stateside debut. He’s throwing his changeup more, but it’s a straight 20 offering. He slows his arm down as badly as any pitcher I have seen at any level while throwing it, and he can’t get it near the zone. The fastball still has some life, and the slider still flashes, but the days of dreaming on him are long past. He looks like just an organizational bullpen arm now. After watching Bobby Parnell down the stretch, Mets fans likely don’t need this reminder, but guys don’t always get all the way back from Tommy John surgery.

Wuilmer Becerra, RF (St. Lucie Mets / High-A): 6-13, 2B, R, 4 RBI, 2 BB, 2 K

One of the “non-elite prospects” in the R.A. Dickey deal (an epithet I was surprised to learn that I apparently coined), a Mets fan might consider Becerra a bit of a free roll given the success of Travis d’Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard (and if you really want to stretch it, John Buck was part of the deal for Dilson Herrera). And just looking at his Baseball-Reference page, you might think Becerra was progressing slowly. He spent three seasons in rookie-ball, and all of 2015 in the South Atlantic League. He’s still only 21 though, and started to make some real progress with his swing in his full-season ball debut. I suspect he has been nursing an injury of some sort since Spring Training–he has been in and out of the St. Lucie lineup, and mostly DHing when he’s been penciled in.

Becerra shows easy plus raw in batting practice, but the pop really hasn’t shown up in games since the first half of 2015. He popped eight home runs for Savannah by July 1st, very impressive considering the cavernous home park, but since then he has looked more like a contact-oriented hitter that gaps some doubles. The Savannah staff spread out his stance a bit during the season, so that could be a factor, but if he can figure out how to keep that contact rate while tapping back into this power potential, he could eventually be an above-average regular in right field. He sure looks the part. It’s a great frame, and he is still an average runner with enough arm for the position. A lot needs to happen for it to all come together, but if it ever does, he could be a Top-101-type talent. There is a reason Toby Hyde gushed about him during our Effectively Wild Preview.

Ivan Wilson, CF (Columbia Fireflies / Low-A): 4-19, 2 2B, 4 R, 4 BB, 8 K, SB, 2 E

If I thought Ivan Wilson could hit .240 in the majors, he’d be a no-doubt, top-five prospect in the system. He is also a good reminder why we only gush about five-tool players, not four-tool players. He has arguably the best raw power in the system, 70-grade pop that comes from the easy–and seemingly impossible–carry he gets from his swing. He was a high school shortstop (weren’t they all), and the athleticism has translated well to center field. Wilson is a plus runner with a plus arm, and is already advanced enough in the outfield that it isn’t hard to project a 60-grade glove up the middle. That is a hell of a prospect starter kit.

But oh, about that fifth tool: He just hasn’t hit. He struggles mightily to recognize any sort of spin, and keep in mind that he has only seen short-season spin so far. In my 2014 look at him, he did not put a single ball into play. He hit three bombs, walked a couple times, struck out the rest. I don’t think he even fouled a pitch off. Like Becerra, Wilson looks every bit the part of a major-league outfielder, but that fifth tool is very, very important.

Photo Credit: Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports