MLB: Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins

Marlins Series Preview September 18-20

Winners of two in a row after dropping five straight, the Mets visit South Beach for the final time this year to face a reeling club that has won just three of its last twenty games.

The Marlins return for the first time in almost two weeks, forced to play three “home” games in Milwaukee over the weekend while storm-ravaged Miami continued to pick up the pieces from Hurricane Irma.

New York is 7-9 against the Marlins this season with a run differential of +1.

When and Where

Game 1: Monday @ 7:10 p.m. EST (TV: SNY; RADIO: 710 WOR, ESPN Deportes)

Game 2: Tuesday @ 7:10 p.m. EST (TV: SNY; RADIO: 710 WOR, ESPN Deportes)

Game 3: Wednesday @ 1:10 p.m. EST (TV: SNY; RADIO: 710 WOR, ESPN Deportes)

Baseball Weather

Monday: 40% chance of scattered thunderstorms with a low of 77F; Winds between 5-10 mph

Tuesday: 80% chance of thunderstorms with a low of 77F; Winds light and variable

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with a high of 88F; Winds between 5-10 mph

Probable Pitching Matchups

Monday: RHP Matt Harvey (5-5, 6.14 ERA, 5.52 DRA, .300 TAv, 0.1 WARP) vs. RHP Dan Straily (9-9, 4.24 ERA, 4.61 DRA, .273 TAv, 1.8 WARP)

Harvey took a step backwards on Wednesday at Wrigley Field, allowing five runs on seven hits and four walks over 3.1 innings. The former All-Star is now 1-2 with a 12.19 ERA in three starts since returning from the disabled list.

Straily was also hit hard his last time out, charged with eight runs on 13 hits in six innings at Citizens Bank Park.

Tuesday: RHP Seth Lugo (6-5, 5.21 ERA, 5.55 DRA, .289 TAv, 0.0 WARP) vs. TBD

Lugo was also knocked around by the Cubs, lasting just three innings and allowing eight runs (seven earned) in the loss. He will once again be limited to around 70-75 pitches.

Wednesday: RHP Rafael Montero (5-10, 5.08 ERA, 4.79 DRA, .294 TAv, 0.9 WARP) vs. RHP Jose Urena (13-6, 3.62 ERA, 4.52 DRA, .260 TAv, 1.7 WARP)

Montero lost for the first time in almost a month behind 4.2 innings of three-run ball in Atlanta on Friday night. The 26-year-old has a 3.51 ERA dating back to August 14, a span of eight appearances (seven starts) in which he has struck out 38 batters over 41 innings.

Urena did not factor in the decision in Friday night’s loss in Milwaukee, needing 101 pitches to get through 4.2 innings. A bright spot for the Marlins this season, the Dominican native is 2-3 with a 3.50 ERA lifetime against the Mets.

Who’s Hot?

Mets 1B Dom Smith (1.433 OPS with 2 HR and 6 RBIs since Wednesday)

Mets INF Asdrubal Cabrera (.556 AVG (10-for-18) during his six-game hitting streak)

Mets OF Nori Aoki (On base 6 times in last 10 plate appearances, including two doubles and a triple)

Mets 2B/SS Gavin Cecchini (4-for-8 with 2 RBIs in Braves series)

Marlins 2B Dee Gordon (4-for-8 with 2 runs scored since Saturday)

Marlins 1B Justin Bour (5-for-11 with 3 RBIs at Miller Park)

Marlins 3B Derek Dietrich (3-for-8 with a homer and 3 RBIs this weekend)

Who’s Not?

Mets OF Brandon Nimmo (1-for-11 with 5 strikeouts in Atlanta)

Mets CF Juan Lagares (.143 AVG (5-for-35 over his last 10 games)

Marlins OF Christian Yelich (2-for-20 over the past week)

Marlins RF Giancarlo Stanton (3-for-18 with no extra-base hits in his last 5 games)

When We Last Met

The Mets dropped two of three at home a month ago, winning the middle game behind six strong innings from Montero and homers by Smith, Wilmer Flores, and Kevin Plawecki.

It’s Literally a 10-Day DL

Marlins: SS Miguel Rojas left Sunday’s game early after straining his left shoulder diving for a ball.

Mets: RHP Noah Syndergaard (torn right lat) will pitch in a simulated game this week and could be activated for next weekend’s home series against Washington.

Notable Quotables

“It’s been a difficult trip, I think, for a number of reasons. Number one, obviously, I think we haven’t played well so that’s the start of it and it gets extended so it’s a little up in the air and a lot’s going on. We had guys that had to stay back for a day and then they flew in, or two days, and kind of lived through the hurricane for different reasons. You had guys with things going on, so there’s a lot going on with families and things that are back in Miami or Florida in general.” – Marlins skipper Don Mattingly on the recent road trip

“I tried to get the sinkers away from the lefties. There’s a lot of lefties in the lineup and I used my changeup and I thought it worked well.” – Mets starter Robert Gsellman discussing his win on Sunday, in which he allowed just an unearned run over seven sharp innings

“I thought I’d give him a start today, big hit for him. I thought he made some good plays at third. He’s another guy that’s had to reinvent himself a little bit. He signed as a shortstop. They moved him around the infield a little bit and he’s not a big power hitter but he’s a pretty good offensive (player). He puts the bat on the baseball.” – Mets manager Terry Collins on rookie third baseman Phil Evans, who drove in and scored his first big league runs on Sunday

Photo credit: Benny Sieu – USA Today Sports

Related Articles

Leave a comment

Use your Baseball Prospectus username