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	<title>Mets &#187; Bartolo Colon</title>
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		<title>Yankees Series Preview August 14-17</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/14/yankees-series-preview-august-14-17/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 14 Aug 2017 16:31:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Scott Orgera]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Series Previews]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Amed Rosario]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bartolo Colon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brandon Nimmo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Curtis Granderson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dominic Smith]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jacob deGrom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jeurys Familia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Harvey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Fulmer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rafael Montero]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Seth Lugo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steven Matz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Terry Collins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Travis d'Arnaud]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wilmer Flores]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yoenis Cespedes]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[The Mets (53-62) make the short trek into the Bronx on Monday to face their crosstown rivals in this year&#8217;s edition of the unofficial Subway Series, at a time where both clubs are playing for very different stakes. When the schedule was released over the winter, many looked at this week as a potential showcase [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Mets (53-62) make the short trek into the Bronx on Monday to face their crosstown rivals in this year&#8217;s edition of the unofficial Subway Series, at a time where both clubs are playing for very different stakes.</p>
<p>When the schedule was released over the winter, many looked at this week as a potential showcase for the rebuilding Yankees (61-55) and their young stars and another important series for the Mets as they make a run towards their third straight postseason.</p>
<p>Instead we&#8217;re looking at the polar opposite in a four-game set that will be split between the two boroughs, with the Yankees holding the league&#8217;s top Wild Card spot and sitting 5.5 games behind first-place Boston in the AL East. The Mets, meanwhile, have all but conceded their season by trading away a number of key veterans and promoting highly-touted prospects Amed Rosario and Dominic Smith to play on a regular basis.</p>
<p>After taking three of four in Philadelphia and winning their first series in just over three weeks, all eyes will be on the Mets&#8217; infield neophytes as they get their first taste of the annual Big Apple showdown.</p>
<p>Fresh off a crushing extra-innings defeat to the Red Sox on Sunday night, the Yankees will look to gain some ground in their division before visiting Fenway Park for a crucial series this upcoming weekend.</p>
<p>The Yankees have a 62-46 record against the Mets in regular season play.</p>
<h3>When and Where</h3>
<p><strong>Game 1:</strong> Monday @ 7:05 p.m. EST at Yankee Stadium (TV: SNY, ESPN, YES; RADIO: 710 WOR, ESPN Deportes)</p>
<p><strong>Game 2:</strong> Tuesday @ 7:05 p.m. EST at Yankee Stadium (TV: SNY, WPIX; RADIO: 710 WOR, ESPN Deportes)</p>
<p><strong>Game 3:</strong> Wednesday @ 7:10 p.m. EST at Citi Field (TV: SNY, ESPN, YES; RADIO: 710 WOR, ESPN Deportes)</p>
<p><strong>Game 4:</strong> Thursday @ 7:10 p.m. EST at Citi Field (TV: WPIX, YES, MLBN (out of market only); RADIO: 710 WOR, ESPN Deportes)</p>
<h3>Baseball Weather</h3>
<p><strong>Monday:</strong> Cloudy with a slight chance of a rain shower and a low around 70F; Winds between 5-10 mph<br />
<strong>Tuesday:</strong> Partly cloudy with a low around 70F; Winds between 5-10 mph<br />
<strong>Wednesday:</strong> Party cloudy with a low of 68F; Winds between 5-10 mph<br />
<strong>Thursday:</strong> Cloudy with a low of 72F; Winds between 10-15 mph; Periods of rain after midnight</p>
<h3>Probable Pitching Matchups</h3>
<p><strong>Monday:</strong> RHP Rafael Montero (1-8, 6.06 ERA, 5.90 DRA, .313 TAv, -0.3 WARP) vs. RHP Luis Cessa (0-3, 4.83 ERA, 5.59 DRA, .272 TAv, -0.1 WARP)</p>
<p>In the least appealing matchup of the quartet, Montero will look to rebound after dropping his fourth straight decision behind three innings of four-run ball on Wednesday against Texas. The 26-year-old lost his big league debut against the Yankees back in May 2014 at Citi Field, allowing three runs on five hits over six innings, which included solo homers by Yangervis Solarte and Mark Teixeira.</p>
<p>Cessa returns to the rotation after CC Sabathia and Masahiro Tanaka were both placed on the DL over the weekend. The Mets traded Cessa to Detroit on deadline day in 2015, along with All-Star hurler Michael Fulmer, for slugger Yoenis Cespedes. Cessa did not last more than five innings in each of his previous four starts this season.</p>
<p><strong>Tuesday:</strong> RHP Jacob deGrom (13-5, 3.21 ERA, 2.85 DRA, .234 TAv, 4.6 WARP) vs. RHP Sonny Gray (6-7, 3.39 ERA, 3.06 DRA, .230 TAv, 3.0 WARP)</p>
<p>If you had to pick one game to watch this week, Tuesday night&#8217;s tilt would be the obvious choice, as each team sends a marquee right-hander to the hill. deGrom snapped a brief two-game skid on Thursday, shutting out the lowly Phillies over 6.2 innings while striking out nine. He left early after being struck in the right arm by a line drive, suffering a significant bruise. X-rays were negative.</p>
<p>The shaggy-haired ace lost his only appearance at Yankee Stadium, surrendering three long balls over five frames. He is 1-2 with a 3.32 ERA in three career starts against the Bombers.</p>
<p>Gray has lost both starts since being acquired from Oakland two weeks ago, despite pitching fairly well in each. The former first-round pick was the victim of shoddy defense in his debut outing with New York, and has also shown some wildness by walking 7 in 12 innings. The Vanderbilt alum has never faced the Mets.</p>
<p><strong>Wednesday:</strong> LHP Jaime Garcia (5-8, 4.50 ERA, 4.97 DRA, .261 TAv, 0.9 WARP) vs. RHP Seth Lugo (5-3, 4.85 ERA, 6.39 DRA, .291 TAv, -0.6 WARP)</p>
<p>Another recent acquisition, Garcia has a 6.97 ERA (8 ER in 10.1 IP) in two outings with the Yankees. The veteran southpaw has struck out 10 batters over that span, however. Garcia is 0-2 with a 4.15 ERA in two career starts vs. the Mets.</p>
<p>Lugo has struggled of late, allowing 13 runs on 20 hits and 6 walks in 16 innings across his last three outings, despite fanning 18. Opponents have a .910 OPS against the sophomore starter during that span.</p>
<p><strong>Thursday:</strong> RHP Luis Severino (9-5, 3.32 ERA, 2.98 DRA, .224 TAv, 4.2 WARP) vs. LHP Steven Matz (2-6, 5.54 ERA, 6.15 DRA, .292 TAv, -0.4 WARP)</p>
<p>Severino follows up the worst outing of his young career, charged with 10 runs (8 earned) over 4.1 innings against Boston on Saturday &#8211; highlighted by two homers off the bat of rookie Andrew Benintendi. Prior to that blip on the radar, the Yankees had won six straight outings by the 23-year-old, a dominating stretch over which Severino struck out 48 in 39.2 innings and held opponents to a .186 AVG, resulting in a minuscule 1.36 ERA.</p>
<p>Matz pitched better his last time out, allowing two runs over 5.2 innings in Philadelphia. It wasn&#8217;t enough to snap his losing streak, though, now at a career high-tying five straight.</p>
<h3>Who&#8217;s Hot?</h3>
<p>Mets IF Wilmer Flores (1.067 OPS in 15 plate appearances at Citizens Bank Park)</p>
<p>Mets OF Curtis Granderson (5-for-15 with 2 HRs and 5 RBIs since Thursday)</p>
<p>Mets LF Yoenis Cespedes (.357 AVG and 1.214 OPS over his last three games)</p>
<p>Mets OF Michael Conforto (3 home runs in Philadelphia)</p>
<p>Yankees C Gary Sanchez (7-for-19 (.368) with 2 home runs during five-game hitting streak)</p>
<p>Yankees 3B/1B Chase Headley (.310 AVG (9-for-29) since August 4)</p>
<h3>Who&#8217;s Not?</h3>
<p>Mets OF Brandon Nimmo (1-for-12 in August)</p>
<p>Mets C Travis d&#8217;Arnaud (3 hits in his last 25 at-bats (.120 AVG))</p>
<p>Yankees RF Aaron Judge (.596 OPS with 20 strikeouts in 38 at-bats this month, and at least one strikeout in 30 straight games)</p>
<p>Yankees OF Brett Gardner (8-for-48 (.167) in August with 1 extra-base hit)</p>
<p>Yankees 3B Todd Frazier (1 hit in 12 plate appearances vs. Boston)</p>
<h3>When We Last Met</h3>
<p>The crosstown rivals split four a year ago, with the Mets losing the first and taking the second game in each ballpark. The victory in Queens came on the strength of seven shutout frames by deGrom, while Bartolo Colon earned the win at Yankee Stadium with 6.2 innings of one-run ball &#8211; a game in which Jeurys Familia notched his league-leading 38th save on August 4.</p>
<p>The Yankees were 54-54 at the end of the series and sat in fourth place, 7.5 games off the pace in the AL East. The Mets were 56-52, good for third place and an eight-game deficit in the NL East at the time.</p>
<h3>It&#8217;s Literally a 10-Day DL</h3>
<p><strong>Mets:</strong> RHP Matt Harvey (stress injury in right shoulder) made his first rehab appearance on Saturday for Class-A Brooklyn at Hudson Valley, allowing a run on one hit and one walk in just one inning. Harvey threw 18 pitches, 7 for strikes, and topped out at 93 mph on the radar gun.</p>
<p><strong>Yankees:</strong> 1B Greg Bird (right ankle surgery) and 2B Starlin Castro (right hamstring strain) are both expected to begin rehab assignments later this week.</p>
<h3>Notable Quotables</h3>
<p>&#8220;Two years ago, we thought he could hit 30 home runs. We saw the power. What you&#8217;re seeing this year is he&#8217;s so consistent, the swing is so consistent that it&#8217;s starting to show. You&#8217;re going to look at a guy who&#8217;s got a chance to hit 30 homers and wasn&#8217;t even in the lineup in April, and that speaks volumes.&#8221; &#8211; Mets manager Terry Collins discussing Michael Conforto&#8217;s big weekend in Philadelphia</p>
<p>&#8220;There&#8217;s really no substitute for getting all your at-bats, being out there every day. That does a lot for a player to just feel comfortable in the box every day.&#8221; &#8211; Conforto following Sunday&#8217;s 6-2 victory</p>
<p>&#8220;I think you can throw out the records in that series&#8230; It&#8217;s an exciting time. It&#8217;s exciting for the city and we&#8217;re anxious to get going.&#8221; &#8211; Collins on facing the Yankees</p>
<p>&#8220;They&#8217;ve had their injury problems as well, especially to that rotation where they&#8217;ve lost a number of guys that have been out for a while. The back end of their bullpen has had injuries and other issues so sometimes you can draw it up on paper but you&#8217;ve got to keep your guys healthy.&#8221; &#8211; Yankees manager Joe Girardi on the Mets struggles after being expected to contend this season</p>
<p><em>Photo credit: Wendell Cruz &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Cardinals Series Preview July 7-9</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/07/cardinals-series-preview-july-7-9/</link>
		<comments>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/07/cardinals-series-preview-july-7-9/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 07 Jul 2017 16:04:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Scott Orgera]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bartolo Colon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Curtis Granderson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jacob deGrom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jay Bruce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Reyes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Smoker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Conforto]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sandy Alderson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[T.J. Rivera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Terry Collins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yoenis Cespedes]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4835</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In their final series before the All-Star break, New York (38-45) visits Busch Stadium to face a streaky Cardinals (41-44) club that has dropped three of five after winning six of seven. The Mets lost both games of a rain-shortened set against division-leading Washington earlier this week. St. Louis, four back in the loss column [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In their final series before the All-Star break, New York (38-45) visits Busch Stadium to face a streaky Cardinals (41-44) club that has dropped three of five after winning six of seven.</p>
<p>The Mets lost both games of a rain-shortened set against division-leading Washington earlier this week. St. Louis, four back in the loss column behind first-place Milwaukee in a surprisingly underperforming NL Central, has managed to stay in the mix despite playing sub-.500 ball since June 2.</p>
<p>With just over three weeks until the non-waiver trade deadline and facing daunting deficits in their own playoff races, all eyes will be on New York GM Sandy Alderson and the front office as they attempt to salvage what&#8217;s left of a lost season by <a title="Who We Think the Mets Should Trade" href="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/03/our-modest-trade-deadline-proposals/" target="_blank">selling off some of their assets</a>.</p>
<p>One potential transaction that fans seem to be clamoring for would be a reunion with cult hero and clubhouse favorite Bartolo Colon, released by Atlanta on Thursday after enduring the worst stretch of his career (8.14 ERA, .330 TAv, -1.4 WARP over 13 starts). According to multiple reports, the Mets have already reached out to the 44-year-old&#8217;s representatives to discuss the possibility of bringing Colon back to Queens where he was a steadying presence in the rotation over the past three seasons.</p>
<p>As part of All-Star week, the SiriusXM Futures Game will be played in Miami on Sunday afternoon and will feature some of baseball&#8217;s top up-and-coming prospects. Representing the Mets will be catcher Tomas Nido and highly touted shortstop Amed Rosario, who will both play for the World Team. Nido was named as a roster replacement for recently promoted Cubs rookie Victor Caratini, while Rosario (.320 AVG, 7 HR, 52 RBI, 14 SB in in 82 games for Triple-A Las Vegas) joins a group of well-known infielders including Yoan Moncada and Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.</p>
<p>Outfielder Michael Conforto (.953 OPS in 69 games) is expected to be the Mets&#8217; lone representative in the main event on Tuesday. Cardinals right-hander Carlos Martinez and catcher Yadier Molina will also suit up for the National League at Marlins Park. It will be the 25-year-old ace&#8217;s second All-Star appearance, and the eighth time the veteran backstop has been named to the team.</p>
<h3>When and Where</h3>
<p><strong>Game 1:</strong> Friday @ 8:15 p.m. EST (TV: SNY; RADIO: 710 WOR, ESPN Deportes)</p>
<p><strong>Game 2:</strong> Saturday @ 4:10 p.m. EST (TV: SNY; RADIO: 710 WOR, ESPN Deportes)</p>
<p><strong>Game 3:</strong> Sunday @ 2:15 p.m. EST (TV: SNY; RADIO: 710 WOR, ESPN Deportes)</p>
<h3>Baseball Weather</h3>
<p><strong>Friday:</strong> Clear with a low of 69F and winds between 10-15 mph.<br />
<strong>Saturday:</strong> Partly cloudy with a high of 91F and winds between 5-10 mph. 20% chance of a stray shower or thunderstorm.<br />
<strong>Sunday:</strong> Partly cloudy with a high of 94F and winds between 5-10 mph.</p>
<h3>Probable Pitching Matchups</h3>
<p><strong>Friday:</strong> RHP Jacob deGrom (8-3, 3.55 ERA, 2.66 DRA, .237 TAv, 3.4 WARP) vs. RHP Carlos Martinez (6-7, 3.15 ERA, 2.60 DRA, .227 TAv, 3.7 WARP)</p>
<p>In what figures to be the best matchup of the series, at least on paper, two of the best arms in the game go head-to-head in the opener.</p>
<p>On the visiting side, deGrom will try to win his fifth straight. The bushy-haired ace has been absolutely dominating over the four-game stretch, allowing just three earned runs in 32 innings pitched (0.84 ERA) while striking out 31.</p>
<p>Martinez has lost his last two decisions, most recently on Sunday at home against the Nationals where he was charged with five runs in five innings.</p>
<p><strong>Saturday:</strong> TBD vs. RHP Adam Wainwright (9-5, 5.48 ERA, 5.97 DRA, .281 TAv, -0.4 WARP)</p>
<p>A three-time All-Star with two 20-win seasons on his resume, Wainwright will wrap up what is arguably the most inconsistent first half of his career. He earned the win over Miami on Monday in spite of a poor performance, allowing six runs on eight hits in five innings, and will be aiming to win three in a row.</p>
<p><strong>Sunday:</strong> TBD vs. RHP Lance Lynn (6-6, 3.87 ERA, 5.15 DRA, .258 TAv, 0.5 WARP)</p>
<p>The 30-year-old Lynn is 1-3 with a 7.89 ERA over his last four outings, surrendering eight homers during that stretch.</p>
<h3>Who&#8217;s Hot?</h3>
<p>Mets IF/OF T.J. Rivera (.429 AVG, 1.264 OPS with 2 home runs in his last 6 games)</p>
<p>Mets SS Jose Reyes (5-for-15, 1 HR in July)</p>
<p>Cardinals OF Tommy Pham (.353 AVG (6-for-17) with 5 RBIs since Monday)</p>
<h3>Who&#8217;s Not?</h3>
<p>Mets RF Jay Bruce (1 for his last 19 with 6 strikeouts)</p>
<p>Cardinals C Yadier Molina (1-for-11 since July 4)</p>
<h3>When We Last Met</h3>
<p>The Mets took two of three in St. Louis in late August, with rookies Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo earning the victories. Martinez held New York to one run over eight strong frames in the middle game, while deGrom was charged with five runs on twelve hits in one of his worst starts of the season.</p>
<h3>It&#8217;s Literally a 10-Day DL</h3>
<p><strong>Mets:</strong> LF Yoenis Cespedes (right hamstring cramp) is expected to be in the lineup on Friday night. Curtis Granderson (sore hip) should also be available for this series. Conforto (bruised left hand) began a rehab assignment with high-A St. Lucie on Thursday, and could be activated from the disabled list as soon as Saturday. The first-time All-Star played all nine innings in centerfield, going 3-for-4 with a double at the plate. LHP Josh Smoker (left shoulder strain) pitched a scoreless frame in that game, his first action since being placed on the 10-day DL on June 14.</p>
<p><strong>Cardinals:</strong> LHP Zach Duke (ligament surgery in left elbow) joined Triple-A Memphis in Nashville on Thursday, the veteran&#8217;s third club since beginning a rehab assignment last Friday. Duke may be activated by the end of the month if all goes well. CF Dexter Fowler (right heel spur) ran the bases with cleats on Thursday for the first time since being injured and could return this weekend, although at this point the team may take a cautious approach and wait until after the break to activate their speedy leadoff hitter. 2B Kolten Wong (right triceps strain) is on assignment with Double-A Springfield, and has started their past two games.</p>
<h3>Notable Quotables</h3>
<p>&#8220;If you&#8217;re gonna pitch it, you&#8217;ve got to catch it. Some of the best pitching in baseball has some of the best defense in baseball. Certainly, we have a system that we&#8217;ve put together where we try to put guys in the right spots depending on who&#8217;s pitching and who&#8217;s up and it seems like we&#8217;re 6-10 inches away from being in the right place.&#8221; &#8211; Mets manager Terry Collins on the team&#8217;s recent defensive woes</p>
<p>&#8220;It happens quickly. You win five out of six and the team you&#8217;re chasing goes through a little bit of a tailspin and all of a sudden that math changes quickly, which is why this is something we keep re-evaluating every day&#8230; We could certainly be in a better position than we are right now, but we&#8217;re not in a position where we&#8217;re dead. We&#8217;re lucky to be in a division where being four games under .500 isn&#8217;t a death knell. We still have a shot. We have to start playing to our potential if we&#8217;re going to make this happen.&#8221; &#8211; Cardinals general manager Michael Girsch, promoted to the position a week ago, on his club&#8217;s stance leading up to the trade deadline</p>
<p><em>Photo credit: Jeff Curry &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Mets connections: Atlanta Braves</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/25/mets-connections-atlanta-braves/</link>
		<comments>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/25/mets-connections-atlanta-braves/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Apr 2017 10:00:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Zane Moran]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anthony Recker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bartolo Colon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brandon Phillips]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chase d'Arnaud]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ender Inciarte]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eric O'Flaherty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jaime Garcia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[R.A. Dickey]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=3758</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The following is the first edition of what will hopefully be part of each of the series previews here at BP Mets. “Mets Connections” will take a look at the opposing teams’ rosters and highlight some of the noteworthy or interesting links that can be drawn between those players and the Mets organization. Some of [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The following is the first edition of what will hopefully be part of each of the series previews here at BP Mets. “Mets Connections” will take a look at the opposing teams’ rosters and highlight some of the noteworthy or interesting links that can be drawn between those players and the Mets organization. Some of these links may be obvious, such as if an opposing player has formerly played for New York, but some may be lesser known tidbits, such as if a player was previously drafted by the Mets. The first version of this series analyzes the Braves’ roster as they open up a three game set in Flushing tonight.<br />
The Braves have four former Mets on their active roster coming into the series, as well as five players who have been traded for a former or current Met. The following is a list of some the Braves’ most significant Mets connections:<br />
<strong>Brandon Phillips</strong>: Despite not blossoming until he was later traded to the Reds, Phillips was part of the 2002 deal that sent him alongside Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, and Lee Stevens to Cleveland in exchange for Bartolo Colon and Tim Drew.<br />
<strong>Bartolo Colon:</strong> Speaking of “Big Sexy,” besides cementing himself in Mets’ lore over the past three years, Colon was once dealt for former Mets’ starter Orlando Hernandez, who finished his career with New York in 2007.<br />
<strong>Jaime Garcia</strong>: While he has never been part of a trade for a former or current Mets big leaguer, Garcia was sent to the Braves this past offseason in a deal that included two prospects of note. John Gant was part of the first Kelly Johnson deal in 2015 after spending four years in the Mets’ farm system. Luke Dykstra, a second base prospect in the trade, is the son of former Mets’ and Phillies’ star Lenny Dykstra.<br />
<strong>R.A. Dickey</strong>: The only Braves player to have been traded for a current Met is R.A. Dickey. That deal with the Blue Jays, of course, is one near and dear to Mets fans’ hearts, as it was responsible for netting the Mets young stud Noah Syndergaard and starting catcher Travis d’Arnaud.<br />
<strong>Chase d’Arnaud</strong>: While their familial relationship is not as well documented as Corey and Kyle Seager, Justin and Melvin Upton, or even Ben and Justin Verlander, Chase and Travis have pulled off the rare feat of siblings in professional sports.<br />
<strong>Ender Inciarte</strong>: The connection between Yoenis Cespedes and Ender Inciarte may not be readily apparent. Besides both being outfielders in the NL East, their playing styles are starkly different, and they have share no previous teams. The link here comes through a little known relief prospect named Gabe Speier, as both Inciarte and Cespedes have been involved in trades that also included the pitcher. Cespedes and Speier were traded together to the Tigers in the Rick Porcello deal, and Speier was later traded by the Braves as the throw-in piece of the infamous Shelby Miller trade with the Diamondbacks.<br />
The other two former Mets on the Braves roster are <strong>Eric O’Flaherty</strong> and <strong>Anthony Recker</strong>.</p>
<p><em>Photo credit: Brett Davis &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Braves series preview April 25-27</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/25/braves-series-preview-april-25-27/</link>
		<comments>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/25/braves-series-preview-april-25-27/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Apr 2017 09:55:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Scott Orgera]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asdrubal Cabrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bartolo Colon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Curtis Granderson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Reyes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Harvey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Conforto]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Neil Walker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Noah Syndergaard]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ra dickey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Robert Gsellman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Terry Collins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Travis d'Arnaud]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yoenis Cespedes]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=3750</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The sky is falling in Flushing as the reeling Mets welcome last-place Atlanta to Citi Field for the second time this month in the midst of 32 straight games against National League East opponents to open the season. Playing shorthanded offensively due to a bevy of injuries to key players, New York was swept by [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The sky is falling in Flushing as the reeling Mets welcome last-place Atlanta to Citi Field for the second time this month in the midst of 32 straight games against National League East opponents to open the season. Playing shorthanded offensively due to a bevy of injuries to key players, New York was swept by Bryce Harper and the powerhouse Nationals over the weekend and has now lost four straight and eight of their last nine.</p>
<p>A visit from the Braves may be just what the doctor ordered for manager Terry Collins&#8217; ailing squad, as The Traveling Bartolos are in the midst of a six-game losing streak themselves after being swept in two straight series by Washington and Philadelphia.</p>
<p>While the Braves are building for the future with a combination of up-and-coming talent and veterans on short-term deals serving as stopgaps, the Mets were projected by Baseball Prospectus to win 88 games and compete for the division title. Expected to get a boost on Tuesday night with the possible return of slugger Yoenis Cespedes from a hamstring injury, New York will be under some pressure to begin righting the ship in this three-game set as they currently sit 5 1/2 games back of the division-leading Nationals.</p>
<h3>When and Where</h3>
<p>Game 1:  Tuesday @ 7:10 p.m (TV: SNY; RADIO: 710 WOR, ESPN Deportes)</p>
<p>Game 2:  Wednesday @ 7:10 p.m. (TV: SNY; RADIO: 710 WOR, ESPN Deportes)</p>
<p>Game 3:  Thursday @ 1:10 p.m. (TV: SNY, MLB Network; RADIO: 710 WOR, ESPN Deportes)</p>
<h3>Probable Pitching Matchups</h3>
<p>Tuesday: RHP Julio Teheran (1-1, 3.52 ERA, 2.92 DRA, .266 TAv, 0.6 WARP) vs. RHP Robert Gsellman (0-1, 5.09 ERA, 4.58 DRA, .317 TAv, 0.1 WARP)</p>
<p>The typically reliable Teheran saw his ERA rise over 2.5 runs while suffering his first loss of the season last Wednesday against the Nationals, allowing seven runs over four frames including a solo homer and a grand slam to Harper. Gsellman, meanwhile, was largely responsible for the Mets&#8217; last victory on Wednesday. The long-haired rookie held the Phillies to three runs in seven strong innings, striking out seven en route to a no-decision in New York&#8217;s 5-4 win.</p>
<p>Wednesday: RHP R.A. Dickey (1-2, 3.86 ERA, 7.94 DRA, .288 TAv, -0.6 WARP) vs. RHP Noah Syndergaard (1-1, 1.73 ERA, 1.47 DRA, .224 TAv, 1.1 WARP)</p>
<p>The first of two ex-Mets taking the hill in this series, the 42-year-old Dickey suffered the loss to Washington on Thursday despite allowing only three runs on three hits over seven innings. The veteran knuckleballer did not face his former club in the Braves&#8217; first trip to Queens earlier in the month. Although he struck out ten, Syndergaard lost to the Phillies in his last outing; charged with five runs (three earned) in seven innings. The imposing fireballer has yet to issue a walk or surrender a home run this season.</p>
<p>Thursday: RHP Bartolo Colon (1-2, 4.50 ERA, 5.23 DRA, .240 TAv, -0.1 WARP) vs. RHP Matt Harvey (2-0, 2.84 ERA, 3.09 DRA, .241 TAv, 0.6 WARP)</p>
<p>The fan-favorite and cult hero faces the Mets for the second time this season, hurling six innings of one-run ball in a 3-1 Atlanta victory on Apr. 5. Colon lost at Citizens Bank Park on Friday night, allowing four runs on eleven hits in a 4-3 loss to the Phillies. Harvey also pitched on Friday in the Mets&#8217; 4-3 loss to Washington, charged with three runs in seven innings for his second consecutive quality start and also the second straight no-decision.</p>
<h3>Who&#8217;s Hot?</h3>
<p>Braves 2B Brandon Phillips (.343 AVG, 5 doubles, 5 stolen bases; 7-for-16 over his last four games)</p>
<p>Braves RHP Jose Ramirez (6 scoreless innings over last six relief outings, including 5 strikeouts and a .063 opponents&#8217; BA)</p>
<p>Mets OF Michael Conforto (.361 AVG, .436 TAv, 4 HR in 44 PA, 1.4 WARP; 7 hits in his last 15 at-bats with 2 HRs)</p>
<h3>Who&#8217;s Not?</h3>
<p>Braves SS Dansby Swanson (.139 AVG, .142 TAv, .162 OBP, 3 RBI, -0.6 WARP; 3-for-28 with no XBH since Apr. 16)</p>
<p>Mets OF Curtis Granderson (.149 AVG, 1 HR, 6 RBI, -0.5 WARP; .077 (2-for-26) in his last seven games)</p>
<p>Mets 3B Jose Reyes (.104 AVG, .189 OBP, -0.7 WARP)</p>
<p>Mets 2B Neil Walker (.136 (3-for-22) over his last six games)</p>
<h3>When We Last Met</h3>
<p>New York took two out of three from Atlanta to kick off the season, including a 6-0 shutout on Opening Day.</p>
<h3>Bumps and Bruises</h3>
<p>Braves: OF Matt Kemp rejoined the team for their weekend in Philadelphia after missing eight games with a strained right hamstring. The two-time All-Star was 6-for-13 with four doubles and two home runs in the opening series at Citi Field three weeks ago.</p>
<p>Mets: C Travis d&#8217;Arnaud (bruised right wrist) has not put on the catcher&#8217;s gear since last Wednesday against the Phillies. The 28-year-old, who was a late scratch from Sunday&#8217;s lineup after continuing to experience pain when throwing, is 0-for-4 as a pinch hitter while dealing with this injury. Cespedes (left hamstring), who last played on Thursday before limping off of the field in the fifth inning, is expected to start the series opener on Tuesday. SS Asdrubal Cabrera (left hamstring) continues to play through noticeable soreness, manning his position for all nine innings on both Saturday and Sunday.</p>
<h3>Notable Quotables</h3>
<p>&#8220;The concern is to get healthy, because once we get healthy and we get our lineup back in there I think things will turn around.&#8221; &#8211; Collins, after losing the series finale against Washington on Sunday</p>
<p>&#8220;I think it&#8217;s the approach. Laying off tough pitches, swinging at pitches that are in my zone and pitches that I hit well. I think that&#8217;s big the thing. Stick to my strengths.&#8221; &#8211; Conforto on his recent success</p>
<p>&#8220;We&#8217;re in every game we&#8217;ve played. We&#8217;ve got a six-game losing streak&#8230; We&#8217;ve been in every one of them so it&#8217;s a play here, a hit here, a pitch here, it&#8217;s something. You can always find it, but overall we&#8217;re not that far off.&#8221; &#8211; Braves manager Brian Snitker on Sunday, following his club&#8217;s sixth straight loss</p>
<p><em>Photo credit: Bill Streicher &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>What Would Not Surprise Us About the 2017 Mets</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/27/what-would-not-surprise-us-about-the-2017-mets/</link>
		<comments>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/27/what-would-not-surprise-us-about-the-2017-mets/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 27 Feb 2017 11:00:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Mets Staff]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lineup Card]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Amed Rosario]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bartolo Colon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Curtis Granderson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jay Bruce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jerry Blevins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Smoker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kelly Johnson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Harvey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Neil Walker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Noah Syndergaard]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[R.A. Dickey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Terry Collins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zack Wheeler]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=3120</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Way way back many centuries ago, not long after the blogging began, Will Leitch started a site called Deadspin. He relied upon tips from the common man. Will&#8217;s vision for Deadspin was to publish sports news that never made it into the public domain &#8220;because of either corporate obligations or just plain laziness.&#8221; Deadspin needed [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Way way back <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1-Zo7T-1vE#t=01m32s" target="_blank">many centuries ago</a>, not long after the blogging began, Will Leitch <a href="http://deadspin.com/124409/welcome-to-deadspin-we-come-with-a-pure-heart-and-mirthful-disposition" target="_blank">started</a> a site called Deadspin. He relied upon tips from the common man.</p>
<p>Will&#8217;s vision for Deadspin was to publish sports news that never made it into the public domain &#8220;because of either corporate obligations or just plain laziness.&#8221; Deadspin needed and wanted to be the internet&#8217;s depository for otherwise-unrevealed sports stories. You might recall Jim Bouton opened the door to such reporting in <em>Ball Four</em>, but Deadspin debuted in 2005 not 1969. (How long ago was 2005 in internet time? OG Deadspin was a <em>great</em> place to read the comments.)</p>
<p>An MLB Trade Rumors tweet the other day brought back the memory of my favorite ancient Deadspin post. No, not <a href="http://deadspin.com/166410/he--could--go--all--the--way" target="_blank">that one</a>. Someone at the NCAA had published a webpage containing contact information for the people running each of the 32 college bowl games. An industrious reader found the page and tipped off Will, who <a href="http://deadspin.com/219689/give-a-shoutout-to-the-men-who-bring-you-the-dumb-bowls" target="_blank">ran with it</a>. We all got a laugh when we read that ESPN, which then as now televised 90% of college bowls, was also responsible for organizing a couple of games themselves. Even in 2005, ESPN producing its own live sports #content was mildly scandalous but not really surprising.</p>
<p>I was reminded that obvious sports story is obvious when I saw this last Tuesday:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Braves Considering Kelly Johnson <a href="https://t.co/uYHo40EVZx">https://t.co/uYHo40EVZx</a> <a href="https://t.co/iIvOXkDWuj">pic.twitter.com/iIvOXkDWuj</a></p>
<p>&mdash; MLB Trade Rumors (@mlbtraderumors) <a href="https://twitter.com/mlbtraderumors/status/834048699160465408">February 21, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>The natural Met fan response:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">&#8230;to be a good candidate to rejoin the Mets sometime during the 2017 season. <a href="https://t.co/y2hBEQQ0Ro">https://t.co/y2hBEQQ0Ro</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Scott D. Simon (@scottdsimon) <a href="https://twitter.com/scottdsimon/status/834049906532814849">February 21, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Nobody here would be shocked, shocked if Kelly Johnson ends up a 2017 Brave, then a 2017 Met. It would not surprise us in the least. Here, then, are some more Mets futures that would leave us unperturbed. &#8212; Scott D. Simon (<a href="http://twitter.com/scottdsimon" target="_blank">@scottdsimon</a>)</p>
<h3>Noah Syndergaard wins the Cy Young; Clayton Kershaw finishes second</h3>
<p>If I just said it wouldn’t surprise me if Noah Syndergaard would win the Cy Young in 2017, well, that wouldn’t put me out on much of a limb. Thor in 2016 was 3rd in ERA, 4th in strikeouts, and 1st in FIP in the National League. He has the best raw stuff in baseball. He’s easily a top-five pitcher in the league, and top-five pitchers win the Cy all the time.</p>
<p>But I’ll go a step further: I expect Clayton Kershaw to turn in a prime Clayton Kershaw season. And I still think Syndergaard wins. Maybe it’ll be close, maybe it’ll be controversial, but I think Syndergaard’s 2017 is so good that it overcomes the everyday magic of Kershaw&#8217;s best. And a race between the two of them at their absolute best might be the most enjoyable thing in baseball. &#8212; Jarrett Seidler (<a href="http://twitter.com/jaseidler">@jaseidler</a>)</p>
<h3>Terry Collins spends all season trying to get Jay Bruce going</h3>
<p>There&#8217;s an alternate reality, a different timeline, in which 2015 Matt Harvey left Game 5 after the eighth inning and David Wright was mobile and Daniel Murphy figured things out before he left town. This is not that reality. This is the reality in which Michael Conforto, a shiny young outfielder who dominated in his first taste of the big leagues, will be left to rot in the high noon sun of Las Vegas because Jay Bruce is inexplicably still wearing orange and blue. Conforto slugged .727 in Triple-A last season. That won&#8217;t matter. Bruce hit .219/.294/.391 as a Met. That won&#8217;t matter either. Barring injury – and maybe even then – Terry Collins is going to stick with the veteran. Even if the veteran isn&#8217;t all that good anymore. &#8212; Kate Feldman (<a href="http://twitter.com/kateefeldman" target="_blank">@kateefeldman</a>)</p>
<h3>Amed Rosario is not eligible for our 2018 Top 101 Prospect List</h3>
<p>As you may be aware, I just got finished with four months of prospect lists, culminating with the release of our <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=31160" target="_blank">BP 101</a> on the site two weeks ago. Amed Rosario ranks quite highly, but he could use another full season in the upper minors. Anyway, even considering that we just have to take the Mets&#8217; word for it that David Wright is playing catch &#8230; somewhere &#8230; the 2017 team has a fairly settled and deep infield. If Asdrubal Cabrera’s hip starts barking again, Jose Reyes can slide over to shortstop. Wilmer Flores has, uh, plenty of experience there as well. There really shouldn’t be a need for Rosario to suit up in Flushing beyond a September call-up to get a few major league reps with an eye toward taking over the starting shortstop job in 2018.</p>
<p>However, there are already raves for Rosario coming out of Mets camp. Terry Collins gushes about him at pressers, and when Terry likes a guy, Terry plays a guy. This rule has traditionally been limited to veterans like Eric Campbell, Alejandro de Aza, and James Loney, but I can definitely see a scenario where Rosario is hitting .370 in Vegas in July, half the Mets&#8217; infield is on the disabled list (LOLMets), and he is both the best option and the player the manager is agitating for. Rosario might be overmatched in his first taste of major league action, but he has the tools to hit the ground running and never look back, leaving me to ponder if Dom Smith, Thomas Szapucki, or Justin Dunn will top our Mets prospect list in 2018. &#8212; Jeffrey Paternostro (<a class="PrettyLink profile customisable h-card" href="https://twitter.com/jeffpaternostro" target="_blank"><span class="PrettyLink-prefix">@</span><span class="PrettyLink-value">jeffpaternostro</span></a>)</p>
<h3>Matt Harvey performs as a mid-rotation starter</h3>
<p>Last season was rough, as Harvey pitched through thoracic outlet syndrome that sent his performance careening and ended his season early. Pitchers with TOS have a mixed record upon their return, but Harvey has enough natural talent that he can survive a hit and keep on ticking as a mid-rotation arm, provided he can actually stay healthy this time. I think he&#8217;ll be fine, but perhaps never again an ace.</p>
<p>Compared to 2016, PECOTA&#8217;s projection for Harvey is rosy, with a 4.14 DRA in about 156 innings &#8230; a performance worth roughly two wins. With decent health, that sounds about right to me: a solid but unspectacular No. 3 starter overall in his time on the bump. In some games he&#8217;ll be magic and some he&#8217;ll be a disaster. Though I&#8217;m not sure we&#8217;ll ever see anything quite like his remarkable 2013, Harvey&#8217;s got the underlying velo, smarts, and stuff to succeed as a big league starter, even if his strikeout rate is diminished and opposing hitters make better contact than ever before on his slider. He&#8217;ll be &#8220;fine.&#8221; &#8212; Bryan Grosnick (<a href="http://twitter.com/bgrosnick" target="_blank">@bgrosnick</a>)</p>
<h3>Bartolo Colon makes a glorious return (in the Kelly Johnson deal)</h3>
<p>Mid-season, once Wright and Walker&#8217;s spinal columns are reduced to piles of ashes, Collins begins to pine for a middling utility man. He promptly reacquires Kelly Johnson &#8212; who can deny a love so deep? Luckily, in the trade package, Bartolo Colon also makes a triumphant return to Citi Field, where he stands upon a mound made of the bone spurs of his younger colleagues and once again becomes the most consistently uninjured pitcher in Queens. &#8212; Sara Nović (<a href="http://twitter.com/novicsara" target="_blank">@novicsara</a>)</p>
<h3>Old Curtis Granderson morphs into Chris Carter</h3>
<p>This possibility was always present in the back of our minds from the moment Curtis Granderson signed his four-year contract in the 2013-14 offseason. In his last couple seasons with the Yankees, albeit while battling fluky hit by pitch injuries in 2013, Granderson became a total strikeout machine. His potent power and ability to draw walks kept him useful, but it seemed like that was the player the Mets signed.</p>
<p>Granderson turned out to be much better, cutting down on his strikeouts in Queens, bringing them to a more reasonable level. So even as he moved further along in his thirties, he remained a very productive player, batting .241/.342/.436 with 76 homers in 462 games. As Granderson&#8217;s about to turn 36, though, his bat speed seems bound to fade. The strikeouts may rise, but that&#8217;s okay. The dingers should still be around. As Chris Carter and earlier iterations of Granderson demonstrated, that kind of hitter is still valuable, no matter what your grouchy uncle thinks. &#8212; Andrew Mearns (<a href="http://twitter.com/MearnsPSA" target="_blank">@MearnsPSA</a>)</p>
<h3>Mets players&#8217; names remain non-predictive of performance</h3>
<p>The recent history of Mets <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=onomastics&amp;oq=onomastics&amp;aqs=chrome..69i57j0l5.239j0j7&amp;sourceid=chrome&amp;ie=UTF-8" target="_blank">onomastics</a> has hidden its fair share of verbs within its subjects’ names, though their relationship with the players’ skillsets have seemed misplaced. Zack Wheeler does not share his <a href="http://backyardsports.wikia.com/wiki/Pete_Wheeler" target="_blank">Backyard Baseball</a> counterpart’s bristling speed. &#8220;Smoker&#8221; better fits an ill-tempered, hulking first baseman in the Clu Haywood movie villain mold (provided &#8220;Josh&#8221; is swapped for a more menacing name). Sure, “Steven Matz down the competition” is a bad headline waiting to happen, but&#8230;</p>
<p>That brings us to Neil Walker, whose name includes a literal baseball stat! Except his career 8.2% walk rate is the kind of pedestrian that, in childhood, would have had his parents yelling at him for playing in the middle of the road. In 2016, Curtis Granderson’s team-leading 74 free passes on a 11.7% rate far outpaced Walker’s (granted, injury-shortened) 42-walk campaign despite a career-best 9.2% walk rate. It would be unsurprising if Granderson repeated: he&#8217;s tallied the most plate appearances and walks on the team each season since his crosstown switch, and hasn’t posted a walk rate south of 10% since 2007. Walker is just not an elite walker.</p>
<p>With this, our hope turns to Jerry Blevins. As of this writing, “blevin” is not yet in the dictionary, but you can’t tell me that <a href="https://twitter.com/AnthonyDiComo/status/831899604312539141" target="_blank">this</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/AdamRubinESPN/status/699604384196460546" target="_blank">guy</a> isn’t leading the league in blevins this coming season. &#8212; Brock Chenier (<a href="http://twitter.com/brockchenier" target="_blank">@brockchenier</a>)</p>
<h3>Michael Conforto receives 500 plate appearances</h3>
<p>I was one of the few Mets fans who didn’t panic last month when an unnamed Mets executive told the New York Post that Jay Bruce would start on Opening Day. After all, a lot can happen between the start of Spring Training and the end of the season. But I also remember that Terry Collins liked having one primary backup in both the infield and outfield last year. Alejandro De Aza got 267 plate appearances as the primary extra outfielder, versus Conforto’s 348 as a half-season starter. That’s why no distribution of outfield playing time will surprise me in 2017, ranging from the incredibly smart to the incredibly stupid. Since Spring Training is a time of hope, it&#8217;s important to remember that high variance situations include positive outcomes like a breakout season for Conforto. &#8212; Noah Grand (<a href="http://twitter.com/noahgrand" target="_blank">@noahgrand</a>)</p>
<h3>Beloved former Mets plague the Amazins</h3>
<p>The ghost of Mets past will come back to haunt Queens this season. The Atlanta Braves have nineteen games against New York in 2017. Their pitching staff includes many familiar (and beloved) faces who once played in blue and orange. While former Mets farmhand John Gant was traded from Atlanta to the Cardinals during the offseason, the Braves picked up R.A. Dickey and Bartolo Colon. For many, those were two of the most adored Mets pitchers of the last decade. I&#8217;d expect those pitchers to have a winning record and perform strangely well against the Mets, even though they are a combined 85 years old. &#8212;  Bryan Kalbrosky (<a href="http://twitter.com/BryanKalbrosky" target="_blank">@BryanKalbrosky</a>)</p>
<h3>The Mets struggle against the NL East</h3>
<p>PECOTA <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/" target="_blank">projects</a> the Mets to win the NL East with a record of 88-74. For this to occur, though, the team will need to beat up on their lowly competition in the NL East: the Atlanta Braves, Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies. All three nominal competitors are currently re-building and project for under-.500 records. Yet last year the 90-72 Mets seemed to lose a bunch of winnable games against the Braves &#8212; at 68-93, the 5th worst team in all of Major League Baseball.</p>
<p>The three NL East bottom feeders expect to improve as they rebuild. Therefore, the Mets will need beat up on these teams while they have the opportunity. However, with the Mets&#8217; luck and the growth of the other NL East teams, I would not be surprised to see New York struggle against the weaker competition. If this happens, the Mets will have difficulty competing for a spot in the playoffs. &#8212; Seth Rubin (<a href="http://twitter.com/sethrubin" target="_blank">@sethrubin</a>)</p>
<p><em>Photo Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The One About The Qualifying Offer</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/21/the-one-about-the-qualifying-offer/</link>
		<comments>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/21/the-one-about-the-qualifying-offer/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 21 Oct 2016 12:50:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jarrett Seidler]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bartolo Colon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Neil Walker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Noting Jarrett's faith in the Mets' medical staff for posterity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yoenis Cespedes]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2748</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Last week, Major League Baseball set the qualifying offer for 2016-17 free agents at $17.2 million, up from $15.8 million last offseason and slightly above earlier estimates. To sum up the qualifying offer system: teams may offer any player who spent the full 2016 season with their squad a one-year contract at $17.2 million within [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Last week, Major League Baseball set the qualifying offer for 2016-17 free agents at $17.2 million, up from $15.8 million last offseason and slightly above earlier estimates. To sum up the qualifying offer system: teams may offer any player who spent the full 2016 season with their squad a one-year contract at $17.2 million within five days of the end of the World Series. The player then has the next week—also the first week of free agency—to decide whether to accept or reject the qualifying offer. If the player rejects and signs with another team, the signing team loses its highest draft pick outside the top ten overall, and the originating team gains a compensatory draft pick after the first round.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The compensatory picks have generally fallen from the mid-20s to the mid-30s under the current system, so it’s a pretty good benefit for a team. It is possible this system gets tweaked a bit upon the signing of a new Collective Bargaining Agreement, which will likely happen sometime between the World Series and the old CBA’s expiration on December 1, but major changes are not currently expected.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The Mets have three plausible candidates for the qualifying offer. Yoenis Cespedes and Neil Walker are obvious candidates that we’ve been talking about all season. And then there’s Bartolo Colon.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Unlike last year, Yoenis Cespedes is eligible to be qualified by the Mets if he opts out of the two years and $47.5 million remaining on his contract. The Mets would obviously qualify Cespedes, and Cespedes would just as obviously turn the qualifying offer down. If he’s going to stay here on a shorter-term deal, it’ll likely be the one he already has, or a renegotiation.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The actual tough qualifying offer decision for the Mets is Neil Walker. I last dropped in on Walker two months ago and, </span><a href="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/18/neil-walker-daniel-murphy-and-self-scouting/"><span style="font-weight: 400">at the time</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400">, not only was qualifying Walker an easy decision, but it seemed clear that it was in the Mets’ best interests to lock him up to a long-term deal. Literally right after that article was published, Walker’s season ended with a herniated disc in his back. Does it still make sense to qualify him?</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Probably. Even if Walker’s offense falls back to 2014-15 standards, The Neil Walker Season, around 3.0 WARP, is worth having around on a one-year, $17.2 million contract. T.J. Rivera had a nice September, but you’d probably like to avoid having the plan at second be Rivera and Gavin Cecchini only. Beyond that, all the things I said in August about the possibility of Walker’s power breakout being real do still apply. They just have the health regression caveat now too. It is a hell of a caveat, given the seriousness of a disc herniation, but as the team shepherding Walker through his injury and rehab, the Mets should* have the best information possible to make that call.</span></p>
<p><em>[ * &#8211; Editor&#8217;s Note: Noting Jarrett&#8217;s faith in the Mets&#8217; medical staff here for posterity.]</em></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">But there might be an even better way out here. The Mets can use the cudgel of the qualifying offer, and the quick decision that has to be made whether to accept it or not, to try and get Walker to sign a slightly-discounted two- or three-year deal. This minimizes Walker’s risk of becoming this year’s Kendrys Morales, Dexter Fowler, or Stephen Drew, unsigned into spring training or even the season itself and ultimately having to take a one-year deal for less than the originally rejected QO.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Based on his production over the last three years as a Met, not to mention the two years before that in Oakland, Bartolo Colon is probably in actuality worth the $17.2 million he would get under the qualifying offer. But entering his age-44 season, there’s simply no way Colon will be that expensive for the Mets to re-sign if they desire. (They should so desire.)</span></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">I’d expect Colon to sign another deal similar to his 2016 contract, probably with a slightly larger guarantee than the $7.25 million granted to him last year. And he’ll be a great bargain at that price given what other, worse starters like Ivan Nova and Jeremy Hellickson will go for. Hopefully it will be with the Mets for one more season.</span></strong></p>
<p><em>Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The Top 5 Mets Games of 2016</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/20/the-top-5-mets-games-of-2016/</link>
		<comments>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/20/the-top-5-mets-games-of-2016/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 20 Oct 2016 17:08:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Andrew Mearns]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asdrubal Cabrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bartolo Colon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Curtis Granderson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jacob deGrom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Noah Syndergaard]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[T.J. Rivera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yoenis Cespedes]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2741</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Mets’ 2016 season was an unexpected ride. For a long time, it seemed like they were going to struggle to defend their National League pennant, and it took a late charge at the end to simply reach the Wild Card game. Although it was ultimately step back from 2015, it certainly had its share [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Mets’ 2016 season was an unexpected ride. For a long time, it seemed like they were going to struggle to defend their National League pennant, and it took a late charge at the end to simply reach the Wild Card game. Although it was ultimately step back from 2015, it certainly had its share of unforgettable highlights and tremendously entertaining games.</p>
<p>I took the data from all 163 of the Mets’ games, put it into the Mearntron Personal Opinion Machine, and produced this 100 percent accurate ranking of the best Mets games–not necessarily moments–from 2016. The science was foolproof, so trust it.</p>
<p><strong>Honorable Mentions</strong></p>
<p>April 5: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B8ioI39ROfg">Thor’s thesis statement</a></p>
<p>May 7: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVFsq9FQBlc">Bartolo dong</a></p>
<p>June 21: <a href="http://m.mlb.com/video/v843959983/kcnym-bullpen-baffles-royals-in-21-victory/">Bullpen picks up Bart against KC</a></p>
<p>June 25: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=clpxo3y73gI">Kelly Johnson haunts the Braves, 1-0 in 11</a></p>
<p>August 29: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qd8eQxF_fzA">Yo goes yard to beat the Fish</a></p>
<h4>April 29: Offense explodes in record 12-run inning</h4>
<iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=640597183&amp;topic_id=11493214&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p>In the 54-year history of the Mets, there had never been an inning quite like the bottom of the third on April 29 against the Giants. The 10-run frame in 2000 finished off by <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JBFXlMkwWjU">Mike Piazza’s blast</a> remained the pinnacle of scoring.</p>
<p>It all started innocently enough, as it was a scoreless game, and Jake Peavy had issued back-to-back walks. That obviously was not good, but it hardly portended an enormous inning. Michael Conforto doubled home the first run. Then Yoenis Cespedes brought the two runners home with a single up the middle. Lucas Duda walked, and on a 1-2 count, Neil Walker lifted an RBI double down the right field line to make it 4-0.</p>
<p>Now it was ugly, so Bruce Bochy called on Mike Broadway to make what would unsurprisingly be his last MLB appearance of the season. Asdrubal Cabrera greeted him by roping his second pitch into the left-center field gap for a two-run double. It briefly calmed down when Kevin Plawecki merely walked and Steven Matz struck out on a bunt attempt. Then it turned to chaos again with three straight singles and finally a grand slam by Cespedes to set the franchise record. Like the previous record with Piazza, it was fitting that the Mets’ biggest star capped the inning.</p>
<p>12 runs. One out. Broadway was dark that night—a little bit weaker than he used to be.</p>
<p>(<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN201604290.shtml">Box score</a>)</p>
<ol start="4">
<li><strong> September 17: The Curtis Granderson Show</strong></li>
</ol>
<p>It should not be <a href="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/14/the-understated-greatness-of-curtis-granderson/">a secret</a> that I love Curtis Granderson. He is just a productive, kind, level-headed dude (outside of moon landing theories) who has very quietly produced a near-300 homer, 41 WARP career in essentially 12 seasons. The four-year, $60 million contract he signed prior to 2014 did seem a bit higher than expected at the time despite the back-to-back 40-homer seasons in pinstripes, but it’s hard to say that he hasn’t been worth it.</p>
<p>When Granderson was a Yankee, he watched in the 2012 ALDS as, down to their final outs in Game 3, Raul Ibanez <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_beP3tnFpn8">tied the game</a> with a solo shot and then <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WPD0lR3FtTk">walked it off</a> with another dinger in the bottom of the 11th. Four years later, Granderson pulled off another Ibanez act.</p>
<p>The Mets held a Wild Card spot at the time, but they were still in a tight race with the Giants and Cardinals. They had a cushy schedule and needed to take advantage of every opportunity. September 17<span style="font-size: small"> </span>offered that, as they faced the worst team in baseball, the Twins. Inexplicably, Minnesota’s pitching shut them down through seven, and they needed an RBI single by Cespedes in the eighth to simply force extra innings.</p>
<p>Then in the 11th, the Twins took the lead on a solo homer by surging rookie Byron Buxton off Hansel Robles. Leading off the home half, Granderson answered it against closer Brandon Kintzler with one of his own, knotting the game again at 2-2. One inning later, Granderson had another opportunity, this time with southpaw Ryan O’Rourke fresh in the game to face him with two outs. It didn’t matter. Granderson took him deep down the right field line for the walk-off winner. Without him that night, the Mets would have had another loss.</p>
<p>(<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN201609170.shtml">Box score</a>) (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3L6iBcSLZjk">Clip</a>)</p>
<ol start="3">
<li><strong> July 17: Jacob deGrom’s one-hit masterpiece</strong></li>
</ol>
<p>There is not too much to say about this game, even though it ranks third here. Jacob deGrom was just phenomenal. The Phillies had no chance.</p>
<p>In the bottom of the third, opposing pitcher Zach Eflin singled <a href="http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/26271672/v937688383/nymphi-eflin-registers-lone-hit-off-degrom">just past</a> deGrom’s reaching attempt to his side. In the top of the eighth, Ryan Howard worked a walk. Both outcomes were unlikely, but so it goes. Regardless, those were the only two baserunners to reach against deGrom on this absurdly good night.</p>
<p>deGrom dazzled with his two-seamer and changeup, striking out seven and inducing 11 ground balls. When he fanned Odubel Herrera to end it, it marked his first career complete game and shutout, and the Mets’ first since R.A. Dickey in <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Epyq2XWo9Q">June 2012</a>. It’s just a shame that deGrom was unable to finish his season due to injury.</p>
<p>(<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PHI/PHI201607170.shtml">Box score</a>) (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x9QDi2fb2BQ">Clip</a>)</p>
<ol start="2">
<li><strong> September 13: The hero is &#8230; T.J. Rivera?</strong></li>
</ol>
<p>At the end of the MLB Draft in 2011, Troy University’s T.J. Rivera did not have a team. Over 1,500 players were selected in the 50 rounds of drafting beforehand, ranging from Travious Relaford to Kash Kalkowski. Yet nobody wanted the rights to Rivera. He had a connection though, as former coach Mackey Sasser <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/rise-t-rivera-mets-wild-tale-article-1.2817892">recommended</a> Rivera to a Mets scout, saying he was worth a flier. So they signed him as an undrafted free agent.</p>
<p>Five years later, this low-risk signing improbably paid off, as Walker’s injury opened the door for the 27-year-old Rivera, who worked his way through the system and finally made his MLB debut in August. He played on and off for about a month until getting the start in a crucial game against the NL East-leading Nationals on September 13.</p>
<p>It was shaping up to be an agonizing night for the Mets faithful, as a brilliant 10-strikeout outing over seven innings by Syndergaard was wasted when Jeurys Familia coughed up the 3-1 lead in the bottom of the ninth. An error by Jose Reyes at third base and a flurry of singles led to two runs, and with Anthony Rendon in scoring position and none out, it took everything Familia had to work through Ryan Zimmerman and Clint Robinson. He got a lineout from Zimmerman and then a line drive double play off the bat of Robinson.</p>
<p>Having survived the close call, the Mets came to bat again in the 10th. In came Nationals closer Mark Melancon, a smart trade deadline acquisition who vastly improved the back of the bullpen from the likes of Jonathan Papelbon. This was not someone who typically faltered. With one out, Rivera was down 0-2. After pumping two fastballs in, Melancon tried a cutter, but it dipped over the heart of the plate. Rivera destroyed it for his first career homer.</p>
<p>The Nationals Park fans were stunned. The inning ended shortly thereafter, but Fernando Salas and Jerry Blevins combined to shut Washington down in the home half of the 10th. A Daniel Murphy strikeout iced it, and the Mets won 4-3. T.J. Rivera, man.</p>
<p>(<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/WAS/WAS201609130.shtml">Box score</a>) (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDfHbweQeTM">Clip</a>)</p>
<ol>
<li><strong> September 22: Asdrubal Cabrera to the rescue</strong></li>
</ol>
<p>This is indisputable. September 22, 2016 will go down as one of the best Mets games of all time.</p>
<p>Once again, this was the heat of the Wild Card chase with the pressure on to win just about every game. It was another good matchup for the Mets, as the Phillies weren’t exactly intimidating.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, this was still a back-and-forth affair. Granderson crushed an Adam Morgan pitch for a two-run homer in the second. The Phillies got a run back, and then Ryan Howard and Cameron Rupp went back-to-back off Seth Lugo. Cespedes tied it back up with an RBI single, and two innings later, gave the Mets a 4-3 lead in the seventh with an RBI double.</p>
<p>Terry Collins felt comfortable handing that advantage to setup man Addison Reed. Two runners reached on infield grounders though, and Maikel Franco unloaded on a full count pitch to right-center field, a three-run bomb to put the Phillies up, 6-4. It seemed bleak until the struggling Jeanmar Gomez faced Reyes with two outs to go in the ninth. A two-run bomb tied it up once more!</p>
<p>Familia threw a perfect 10th and tried to get through a second inning unscathed to no avail. An RBI single and then a bases-loaded walk off Jim Henderson put the Phillies back in front by two, sapping the energy at Citi Field. On the bright side, the Phillies’ 2016 nature kicked in, as they had no one else to turn to in the bullpen to close it out except for rookie Edubray Ramos—a decent arm, but no Ken Giles.</p>
<p>With one out, Conforto pinch-hit for Henderson and walked on four pitches. Reyes followed with a smash to left just out of the reach of shortstop Freddy Galvis. That set the stage for Cabrera. On a 1-0 pitch, Cabrera demolished Ramos’ pitch for a three-run homer, chucked the bat in joy, and threw his hands in the air. It was an <a href="http://cdn.newsday.com/polopoly_fs/1.12355123.1474604126!/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/display_960/image.jpg">iconic image</a>, one for the ages.</p>
<p>(<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN201609220.shtml">Box score</a>) (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l1VT_8inLbs">Clip</a>)</p>
<p><em>Photo Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Our 2016 Mets World Series MVP</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/03/our-2016-mets-world-series-mvp/</link>
		<comments>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/03/our-2016-mets-world-series-mvp/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Oct 2016 10:00:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Mets Staff]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Lineup Card]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bartolo Colon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Curtis Granderson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Daniel Murphy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jay Bruce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jeurys Familia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Reyes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[T.J. Rivera]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2631</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It&#8217;s a long wait until Wednesday. At press time, it&#8217;s unknown who the Mets will defeat in the Wild Card game. It&#8217;s unknown how many games it&#8217;ll take for the Mets to beat the Cubs in the Division Series, and whether the Mets will beat the Dodgers or the Nationals in the NLCS. Though the American League champion could [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s a long wait until Wednesday. At press time, it&#8217;s unknown who the Mets will defeat in the Wild Card game. It&#8217;s unknown how many games it&#8217;ll take for the Mets to beat the Cubs in the Division Series, and whether the Mets will beat the Dodgers or the Nationals in the NLCS. Though the American League champion could still be one of six(!) teams before the games start on Sunday afternoon, it&#8217;s possible the World Series features the same teams as in <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=4&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;ved=0ahUKEwi86aOl3rzPAhWE3SYKHWKPCosQFgg8MAM&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.espn.com%2Fblog%2Fnew-york%2Fmets%2Fpost%2F_%2Fid%2F36038%2Fthis-date-in-86-miracle-at-shea&amp;usg=AFQjCNGa_Ihz1gUqbmGUwpDhk8vvIEltpQ&amp;sig2=N9W47ySRporFTUfTYji8Iw" target="_blank">1986 </a>or <a href="http://time.com/3879745/the-1969-new-york-mets-color-photos-of-a-legendary-team/" target="_blank">1969</a>. (It&#8217;s nice, however, that the 2000 Mets&#8217; World Series opponents will be spending October at home.) In any event, we&#8217;re sure the Mets will be on the road in Game 1 and that no matter how the Fall Classic ends, a Met will certainly be named Most Valuable Player. Here&#8217;s who we know it will be. &#8212; Scott D. Simon (<a href="http://twitter.com/scottdsimon" target="_blank">@scottdsimon</a>)</p>
<h3>Jose Reyes</h3>
<p>Jose Reyes last reached the postseason as a member of the 2006 New York Mets who lost in the NCLS. Now in his second tenure with the team, he again has the opportunity to help the Mets win the World Series. Reyes is not as popular as in his first stint due to his arrest for domestic violence. Nor is he the same player he used to be (1.7 WARP in 2016 vs. 6.4 WARP in 2011). This year&#8217;s version of Reyes has been merely serviceable, with a .325 OBP, but that&#8217;s significantly better than the mediocre Eric Campbell and Matt Reynolds.</p>
<p>Come the World Series, Reyes will provide the spark that rallies the team to victory. Whether he&#8217;s manufacturing runs himself or scoring on the onslaught of Asdrubal Cabrera and Yoenis Cespedes dingers, Reyes will break the World Series runs scored record (10, held by 1993 Paul Molitor and 1977 Reggie Jackson) and deservedly win the MVP award. &#8212; Seth Rubin (<a href="http://twitter.com/sethrubin">@sethrubin</a>)</p>
<h3>Jay Bruce</h3>
<p>When the Mets acquired Jay Bruce from the Reds at the August 1 trade deadline, Terry Collins <a href="http://m.mets.mlb.com/news/article/192999400/mets-acquire-outfielder-jay-bruce-from-reds/" target="_blank">described</a> the veteran outfielder as a “tremendous run-producing guy” and a “huge bat in the middle of our lineup.” For about seven weeks, that player was nowhere to be found. Collins even pinch-hit Eric Campbell in a critical moment against the Braves back on September 20. Just when it looked like things couldn’t get any worse for him, the switch flipped in a big way, as Bruce hit .480 (12-for-25) with four homers and a double over the final eight games of the regular season.</p>
<p>Naturally, I don’t feel nearly as confident about the starting pitching going into this year’s playoffs as I did a year ago. If this team makes (and wins) the World Series, they are going to to do it mostly on the backs of their offense. That’s why I’m predicting Bruce will continue to redeem himself during this postseason run and carve out a special place in franchise history. Come on, you know you want to see an avalanche of shame retweets from before this recent surge. &#8211; D.J. Short (<a href="http://twitter.com/djshort" target="_blank">@djshort</a>)</p>
<h3>Jeurys Familia</h3>
<p>I wrote a, well, <a href="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/04/our-boldest-mets-predictions-hot-takes/" target="_blank">bold thing</a> for our BP-Mets preseason bold predictions. Turns out Familia wasn’t the best reliever in the National League. Although on balance, he was a very good one. He showed flashes of his 2015 dominance but also went through several rough patches where he lost his mechanics. The Mets have a long, perilous road to get back to the World Series in 2016, and they will need Familia to be an anchor in the ninth (and maybe even the eighth) inning. If they are popping champagne in November, it is very likely they had to win a lot of close, low-scoring games to get there, and “Danza Kuduro” will have been on loop at Citi Field for a month (it should be regardless).</p>
<p>Right up until he decided to quick pitch Alex Gordon, Familia had been automatic in the 2015 playoffs. When Familia slams the door in the final game of this year&#8217;s World Series, it could easily be the fourth game he’s saved in the Fall Classic. That will be enough to get him the hardware. &#8212; Jeffrey Paternostro (<a href="https://twitter.com/jeffpaternostro" target="_blank">@jeffpaternostro</a>)</p>
<h3>Bartolo Colon</h3>
<p>Bartolo Colon is not the best pitcher on the Mets. His fastball barely cracks 90. No Warthen Slider will ever leap from his fingertips. His 3.43 ERA for the season is his best as a Met, but his 5.17 DRA suggests the specter of regression yet to come. He didn&#8217;t even crack the postseason rotation in 2015, but this year he slots in as the number-two starter. And when he takes the stage, facing some of the best hitters the MLB can throw at him, he&#8217;s going to dominate.</p>
<p>Colon is almost preternaturally relaxed. To see him warm up, you&#8217;d never know if he was throwing in the World Series or a beer-league softball game. It&#8217;s all the same to him &#8212; every game, every at-bat. Baseball&#8217;s biggest stars will admit to the impact of adrenaline during the postseason, a wave many ride successfully for a time before the blood pressure inevitably declines over the course of nine innings. Colon will ride no such wave on his way to World Series MVP, he&#8217;ll just get up every game and do his job. His easy motion will allow him to rack up hundreds of pitches on his way to two complete games and, coming after fireballer Noah Syndergaard, his soft-tossing will befuddle hitters. Then the &#8220;Bart Bart Bart!&#8221; chants will echo in our ears until Spring.  &#8212; Maggie Wiggin (<a href="https://twitter.com/maggie162" target="_blank">@maggie162</a>)</p>
<h3>T.J. Rivera</h3>
<p>A second baseman known for contact hitting suddenly unlocks his power bat in the playoffs. We’ve seen it before with Daniel Murphy. But maybe there’s something magical about the Mets’ second base position. That’s why I’m taking T.J. Rivera, 2016 World Series MVP! It’s actually not as far-fetched as it sounds. Madison Bumgarner was the first pitcher to win the award since 2003. You don’t see a lot of superstar hitters winning World Series MVP – even Derek Jeter only won the award once. The list of World Series MVPs contains far more journeymen than the NBA and NHL versions. They tend to be above-average hitters who excel at contact, have some power, and get hot at the right time. Think David Freese. Both Freese and Rivera got their first extended big league playing time at age 27. What better symbol of a team that got contributions from a full 40 man roster than to have an undrafted free agent win World Series MVP? &#8212; Noah Grand (<a href="https://twitter.com/noahgrand" target="_blank">@noahgrand</a>)</p>
<h3>Curtis Granderson</h3>
<p>Curtis Granderson is the archetype player who can go on a run to carry this team. When he&#8217;s in a good zone and making consistent contact, that lefty power stroke can be devastating for opposing pitchers, planting dinger after dinger into the right field stands. He&#8217;s not a consistent 30-homer threat for nothing, and Mets fans saw just last year how one scalding hot player can take over multiple series. Granderson might not go on quite as ridiculous a run as Daniel Murphy, but he definitely has the potential to do something special. &#8212; Andrew Mearns (<a href="https://twitter.com/MearnsPSA" target="_blank">@MearnsPSA</a>)</p>
<h3>Daniel Murphy</h3>
<p>The Mets have a tough playoff road ahead of them as they battle through the Wild Card and then take on the Cubs. Meanwhile, Daniel Murphy and his sore butt have been out of the Nationals&#8217; lineup for over a week, which, because I have the maturity of an 8-year-old, is hysterical. Prediction: Murphy will return for the NLDS as scheduled and the Nationals will take the Dodgers down, but not without wearing out that sore booty, putting the slugger back on the bench for the NLCS and propelling the Kings of Queens forth into the World Series, where no second baseman could possibly drop the ball as much as Murph did last year. &#8212; Sara Nović (<a href="http://twitter.com/novicsara" target="_blank">@novicsara</a>)</p>
<p><em>Photo Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Game recap October 1: Well, they did it</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/02/game-recap-october-1-well-they-did-it/</link>
		<comments>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/02/game-recap-october-1-well-they-did-it/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 02 Oct 2016 09:55:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Noah Grand]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Game Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Addison Reed]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bartolo Colon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fernando Salas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hansel Robles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[James Loney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jerry Blevins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jeurys Familia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Reyes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[T.J. Rivera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Travis d'Arnaud]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yoenis Cespedes]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2626</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[James Loney made contact, then turned towards the Mets dugout and flipped his bat before running to first. At the beginning of the season, this wouldn’t make any sense. In the middle of August, we’d assume the below replacement level first baseman made another out as the season was slipping away. We’d seen this story before. In [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>James Loney made contact, then turned towards the Mets dugout and flipped his bat before running to first. At the beginning of the season, this wouldn’t make any sense. In the middle of August, we’d assume the below replacement level first baseman made <em>another</em> out as the season was slipping away.</p>
<p>We’d seen this story before. In 2007, the Mets fell out of the playoffs in the last day of the season. Going back to 1989 and 1987, the Mets have always been snake-bitten the year after winning the division. With all the injuries this year, it looked like 2016 would be another chapter in that story.</p>
<p>But at the end of this regular season, Loney turned to the dugout because he gave Mets fans a reason to celebrate. His two-run homer gave the Mets a 4-2 lead they would not relinquish. For the first time in franchise history, the Mets are heading to the playoffs the year after winning the division.</p>
<p>Bartolo Colon – the one Mets starter who has taken the ball every start – started like he was auditioning to get the call for the Wild Card game. His two-seamer had late life, staying down in the zone and darting in ways that the young Phillies lineup hadn’t seen before.</p>
<p>Like we’ve seen so much in the last five weeks, the Mets got a boost from players brought in to fill the gaps caused by a torrent of injuries. T.J. Rivera drove in the first run. Jose Reyes drove in the second run as Travis d’Arnaud slid under a tag. Neil Walker and David Wright were among the Mets’ most productive hitters when they were healthy, but their replacements in the infield found a way to contribute as well.</p>
<p>Colon faced the minimum through four innings but ran in to trouble in the fifth. Maikel Franco singled and Ryan Howard got all of an elevated fastball for what may be his last home run as a Phillie. Suddenly it was tied 2-2, and a Cody Asche pinch hit blooper fell in center to put runners at the corners. Cesar Hernandez hit a ball sharply down the line, but Loney gloved it to end the threat.</p>
<p>Loney came up in the next inning and drove a David Hernandez pitch deep to right. He’s not exactly a power hitter, so you know he got all of it if he’s turning to the dugout and flipping his bat. Baseball is notorious for players who aren’t the best but still manage to get big hits at big moments. Mets fans may not want to see more Loney, but he flipped his bat like a player who wants to show he belongs in the postseason (and in the big leagues next year).</p>
<p>Terry Collins pulled Colon after five innings and 61 pitches. Colon did lose some command in the fifth, although it’s more likely that Collins was thinking ahead to the Wild Card game and possibly needing a short hook for Syndergaard. The middle of the bullpen didn’t exactly inspire confidence though. Jerry Blevins only retired one of two hitters. Hansel Robles came in next and tried throwing the ball as hard as possible. After a strikeout and a Howard line drive single, Yoenis Cespedes made a shoestring catch to end the threat. Fernando Salas got the seventh and gave up a two-out homer to Darin Ruf on a fastball right down the middle.</p>
<p>In a year where Matt Harvey, Jacob DeGrom and Steven Matz went down with season ending injuries, Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia have been rock solid in the bullpen. They locked down a playoff spot on Saturday. Reed threw a 1-2-3 inning. Familia got two outs before it started raining. As Phillies fans ran for cover, the loud Mets contingent cheered for one more out. After everything this team has been through – the injuries, the baffling lineup choices, some more injuries – another downpour wasn’t going to deter anyone.</p>
<h3>What’s Next:</h3>
<p>Gabriel Ynoa will start Game 162 of the regular season. Syndergaard will throw a bullpen session to prepare for the playoffs.</p>
<p><em>Photo credit: Derik Hamilton &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Mike Piazza, Dee Gordon, and Baseball&#8217;s Finest Moments</title>
		<link>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/27/mike-piazza-dee-gordon-and-baseballs-finest-moments/</link>
		<comments>http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/27/mike-piazza-dee-gordon-and-baseballs-finest-moments/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 Sep 2016 16:08:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Andrew Mearns]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bartolo Colon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dee Gordon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Fernandez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mike Piazza]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[September 11]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2588</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[On Monday night, the Mets faced the Marlins in a road game in Miami. Jose Fernandez was slated to face Bartolo Colon. It should have been just another exciting step on the road to a possible playoff berth for the Mets, as Fernandez thrilled his hometown fans with another strikeout-filled performance. Instead, the events of [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On Monday night, the Mets faced the Marlins in a road game in Miami. Jose Fernandez was slated to face Bartolo Colon. It should have been just another exciting step on the road to a possible playoff berth for the Mets, as Fernandez thrilled his hometown fans with another strikeout-filled performance.</p>
<p>Instead, the events of early Sunday morning transpired, and baseball was forced to move on without the young star, who <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=30459">seemed on his way</a> to a Hall of Fame career. Everyone around the game was wounded, but none beyond Fernandez’s own family could compare to the feelings of the Marlins players themselves, who absolutely loved him. There have been countless posts around the internet since his sudden passing about just how much Fernandez meant to not only the team but the city of Miami itself, and every one of them contains a moving story. He was truly special.</p>
<p>Somehow, some way, the Marlins recuperated after the cancelled game Sunday to take on the Mets. There is <a href="http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/27/game-recap-september-26-marlins-honor-their-fallen-ace-defeat-mets-7-3/" target="_blank">an excellent game recap</a> by Scott Orgera up that delves further into the contest itself, but the pregame ceremony was a tearjerker. The Marlins players gathered around the mound, all wearing “Fernandez 16” jerseys. A single trumpet played “Take Me Out to the Ballgame” and a choir later sang the national anthem.</p>
<p>The Marlins and Mets players hugged on the field in a <a href="https://twitter.com/CBSSportsMLB/status/780546509855191040">stirring display</a> of mutual respect and appreciation of Fernandez, whose loss was certainly felt on the opposing side. While watching up in the Marlins’ TV booth, Al Leiter (who played in the World Series for both teams) could not help but recall a similar memory from his days in Queens that many Mets fans likely also remembered at this moment.</p>
<p>It was another touching ceremony, this one on September 21, 2001 at Shea Stadium, a little over a week after the devastating events of September 11. In the first major sporting event since the attacks, “Taps” was played, New York firefighters and policemen were honored for the bravery, and the nation attempted to put itself back together. The Braves and Mets were fierce rivals at the team, and the Mets were trying to make a miracle run to stay in the playoff race. That didn’t matter. The two sides <a href="http://cdn.s3-media.wbal.com/Media/2016/09/08/e9c7768d-821a-4f16-a404-19b7ee436646/original.jpg">embraced on the diamond</a>, with handshakes and hugs aplenty. Chipper Jones, John Smoltz, and the powerhouse Atlanta crew might have normally been enemies in New York, but on this night, only cheers came from the fans watching this gesture.</p>
<p>The parallels between Monday night and September 21, 2001 did not stop there. As almost every Met fan knows, Mike Piazza came up with the Mets trailing in the eighth inning and the steady reliever Steve Karsay on for Atlanta. He <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQhH6yZ8lxw">brought New York to its feet</a> with a long home run to center field to put the Mets on top and make everyone smile again, even if just for a moment. There were tears, cheers, and almost every emotion imaginable. The Mets closed it out in the ninth to win 3-2 and instantly establish an unforgettable memory. Even the Braves players later admitted that they did not mind falling in this game.</p>
<p>On Monday, the Mets found themselves on the other side of the coin. This time, it did not take until late in the game for the baseball gods’ magical moment. Starting in place of Fernandez, Adam Conley worked a perfect inning, and Dee Gordon stepped to the plate to lead off the game for the Marlins. Gordon was extremely close with Fernandez and his heartbreak was quite evident, from <a href="http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/7417714/v1187260583/gordon-pays-respects-to-jose-fernandez-at-the-mound/">his reactions</a> at Marlins Park on Sunday to the <a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/BK1fDH4Bzkv/">Instagram post</a> he later made in Fernandez’s memory.</p>
<p>The lefty-swinging Gordon started the plate appearance against Bartolo Colon in the right-handed batter’s box, a tribute to the righty Fernandez. He took a pitch and then moved back to his normal spot. No one was thinking home run. After all, Gordon had not hit one out in 323 plate appearances all year and only had eight dingers in almost 2,300 plate appearances over his career. Even Eric Campbell had better odds of going deep.</p>
<iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=1190380783&amp;topic_id=73955164&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p>Yet that’s exactly what happened. Gordon crushed Colon’s pitch <a href="http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/11493214/v1189273083/must-c-courage-emotional-dee-gordon-hits-leadoff-hr/">into the second deck</a> and rounded the bases in tears. Giancarlo Stanton embraced him near the on-deck circle. The dugout mobbed him. The crowd went wild. Fans watching from around the globe found their rooms to be a little dusty as well. Just like Piazza’s blast in 2001, this was a moment bigger than the game, just as the Mets’ own Twitter account <a href="https://twitter.com/Mets/status/780548827963133953">said</a> after the ball sailed over the fence.</p>
<p>The Braves couldn’t be too mad after Piazza’s homer, and neither could the Mets after Gordon’s homer. It was simply another example of baseball’s remarkable healing power, and it was absolutely beautiful to see.</p>
<p>Just this one time, Mets fans could still crack a smile after the other team scored. In this special case, they understood the feeling.</p>
<p><em>Photo Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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