Binghamton Rumble Ponies (Double-A)

Pitcher: Justin Dunn

After a disappointing full-season debut in 2017, Dunn returned to the Florida State League looking to rebound on what was essentially a lost season. In 2016, the Mets’ first rounder had a 5.00 ERA and walked 48 in 95.1 innings with Port St. Lucie before a shoulder injury ended his season. His second go-around went much smoother, with Dunn earning a well-deserved promotion to Binghamton after dominating FSL hitters to the tune of a 2.36 ERA and 51 strikeouts against 15 walks in 45.2 innings.

Dunn’s showed well in Binghamton thus far, striking out more than a batter per nine while keeping his walk rate in check. Jeffrey Paternostro, our lead prospect writer over at the main site, saw Dunn with Binghamton and thought his stuff was actually a tick down from where it had been previously. Instead of the mid-90s fastball, the pitch was sitting more in the 91-94 range. Dunn’s been thought to have a plus fastball, but that’s merely average velocity for a starter nowadays. He’s essentially a two-pitch pitcher at present, with a slider that flashes above average as well. Dunn is also working on developing his change, a needed part of the repertoire if he wants to succeed as a starter in the big leagues.

Although his numbers have been significantly better this season, it’s hard not to be a little disappointed with the reports on Dunn. His stock has increased from last season, but he looks like more of a No. 4 or 5 starter or a late-inning arm rather than a potential top of the rotation arm.

Hitter: Tomas Nido

Old friend Tomas Nido garnered some hype in the offseason as a potential major league caliber catcher, but was called into duty far too quickly due to injuries and struggled mightily in his first extended taste with the Mets. Nido’s likely always going to be glove before bat, but he’ll need to improve on a .446 OPS if he ever wants to stick around in the majors.

Nido returned to Binghamton, where he started the season, and has actually put up a decent line of .273/.297/.453 in almost 140 at-bats. He’s got 14 doubles and three home runs, fairly good numbers for a player who struggled severely a couple months ago.

Here’s where it gets worrisome: Nido has drawn just three walks this season and is repeating the level. While he’s not striking out an exorbitant amount, he’s not getting any free bases either. That’s a problem for a 24-year-old who’s never shown power numbers that may excuse that type of walk rate in the minors. Nido might and likely will have a career as a glove-first backup, but the bat isn’t anything to get excited about, limiting his potential impact at the major league level.

Pitcher: Harol Gonzalez

The aforementioned Jeffrey Paternostro loves him some Harol Gonzalez. The 23-year-old right-hander had a Jacob deGrom experience of his own in Port St. Lucie, winning a single game and losing six with a 2.82 ERA. With higher level affiliates in need of starting pitching, the Mets promoted Gonzalez to Vegas for a single start, and now to Binghamton, where he’ll presumably spend the rest of the season.

Gonzalez has a fringy fastball and his secondary offerings aren’t anything to write home about, but he’s had success at every stop in the minors, sort of like Nabil Crismatt. Crismatt’s got the better stuff, but both have a long track record of success. With Crismatt’s promotion to Las Vegas, Gonzalez took his spot in the Rumble Ponies rotation. He’s only made one start thus far, but this is the level where we’ll find out about whether his stuff can one day play in a major league rotation, or even the bullpen.

Port St. Lucie (Advanced-A)

Pitcher: David Peterson

Peterson’s first six starts in St. Lucie haven’t gone as expected. He’s got a 17:13 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 6.82 ERA, uninspiring numbers for a player many thought should be a level higher at this stage of his career. Part of the appeal in last year’s draft with Peterson was his polish as a college lefty who could move quickly, but it’s now unlikely he even moves to Binghamton before the end of the season.

The reports on his stuff as a whole have been down a bit since last season, and the peripherals back that up. Peterson’s still the best pitching prospect in the system, but the reports and results have been a little discouraging for the left-hander. He’s too good to struggle like this in Advanced-A though, so we’ll check back in a couple more starts to see if anything’s changed.

Hitter: Jeremy Vasquez

A sleeper name who got off to a great start in the Sally League, Vasquez was promoted to St. Lucie less than two weeks ago. He’s off to a rough start but it’s only been 11 games, far too small of a sample. The left-handed hitting first basemen is a hit-before-power prospect, a tough profile that puts a lot of pressure on the hit tool, especially for a 1B-only guy.

While he has shown doubles power, Vasquez hit just six home runs in almost 300 at-bats for Columbia. Vasqeuz should finish the season in St. Lucie and may possibly begin 2019 down in Florida as well. He’s a name to follow, I suppose, but expectations should be minimal. The reality is that as a 28th rounder out of college, reaching Double-A would be a win for the organization.

Hitter: Desmond Lindsay

The expectations for a second rounder are far higher than they are for a 28th rounder, and Lindsay has been a severe disappointment this season. The oft-injured center fielder has only taken 685 at-bats in four seasons and is struggling in St. Lucie to the tune of a .621 OPS. Lindsay’s striking out 26% of the time with a walk rate of 12.1%, but his slugging percentage is actually lower than his on-base percentage. He’s hitting just .208/.311/.309 this season and while the FSL does suppress offense, this is a new low for one of the Mets’ top prospects. All that being said, it shouldn’t come as any surprise that he wasn’t listed in our BP Mets midseason organizational review.

Lindsay has stayed mostly healthy this season – a win in and of itself – but it doesn’t really matter if his tools don’t start showing up in games. He’ll be eligible for the Rule 5 draft next season and the Mets will have an interesting decision on their hands. If I had to guess, Lindsay’s unlikely to be protected unless he starts to show some signs of becoming the major league caliber player the Mets thought he could become.

Photo credit: Gregory Fisher – USA Today Sports

Harol Gonzalez, RHP

The trend of my only seeing the best Harol Gonzalez starts continues. I watched him almost toss a perfect game in Kingsport a couple years back, then he spun six hitless frames last summer in Norwich. This time, despite getting knocked around more than I expected so far in the South Atlantic League, he cruised through seven innings, carving up the Lakewood lineup and featuring improved stuff across the board. Gonzalez has filled out some since my wife confused him for a ball boy in the Appalachian League. He’d still generously be referred to as an undersized righty, but the added bulk—and a couple mechanical tweaks—has given him more velocity, and he’s holding his stuff deeper into games than I’ve seen in the past. He touched 93 a few times and sat 89-92, which is a couple ticks higher than the past two seasons. He held the low 90s velo through 100 pitches, and the heater has more plane than I’ve seen in the past. I think it’s possible they’ve tweaked his armslot up to high-three-quarters, but I don’t have any video to check this theory against. Regardless, it’s a much better pitch now and his above-average command is still present.

Gonzalez has a full repertoire of offspeed pitches. The change is still his best secondary offering. He’s thrown a distinct traditional change and split before—and I believe he still does—although they bled together more than they have in past looks. The cambio ranged from 81-84 with the split action showing at the upper range of the velo band. Overall, the pitch shows good sink and fade and he maintains his arm speed well. He added a cutter/slider type thing, which sits 86-87 and features good late tilt, last year in Brooklyn. There is above-average command here too, and it works especially well off his sinking fastball. The curve is tighter that what he’s showed in past years, but it’s still a bit of a big, loopy breaker. He’s usually shown a tighter 12-6 ones in warmups, and this outing broke off a few of those in game action as well. He can keep the tight shape when spotting it for a strike, which is unusual at this level.

So the stuff has improved across the board. Gonzalez’s prior calling cards are still here too: advanced pitchability and the confidence to throw any of his pitchers in any count or game situation. There’s potentially four average or better offerings here now and plus makeup/mound smarts to help the arsenal play up.. Still, it’s a difficult profile: he’s a short, lean righty who has to make it as a starter to have a real major league role, as there isn’t an obvious bullpen fit for this profile. In the past I have pegged him as one of my acquire 3s, but that feels light now.

Desmond Lindsay, OF

There have been some furrowed brows and tweets of concern from #MetsTwitter about Lindsay’s slow start, but he looks like the same dude we ranked #5 preseason for good and for ill. The most important thing for Lindsay is he looks healthy. He moved well in center field and on the basepaths. When I saw him last season in Brooklyn, he was clearly compromised by his hamstring issues so it was difficult to get a feel for the athletic profile, although he *ahem* certainly looked the part. But now he looks like a decent bet to stick in center with more reps, and his jumps and routes compared well to his up-the-middle counterpart in Lakewood, Mickey Moniak. I didn’t get a useable home-to-first dig, but he’s clocked as a plus runner for me before and I have no reason to think that isn’t still the case. At the plate, he has quick hands that generate plus bat speed, although his eventual over-the-fence power may be limited by minimal loft and an all-fields approach. He is a strong kid though, and should yank enough mistakes to find 10+ home run power at his peak due to his average raw pop. Lindsay struggled with the more polished breaking stuff you see at this level, but overall I liked the plate approach. What he needs now more than anything else is pro reps, and I could see him having a decent second half as he continues to adjust to a full-season assignment, even if the final stat line—and don’t scout the statline—is unlikely to look too shiny given his slow start. I don’t see a reason to downgrade him at this point, although he is remains a very high risk prospect.

Luis Carpio, IF

My fondness for Carpio is well-documented. Labrum surgery derailed his 2016 season save for a few August DH appearances. He’s playing mostly second base now, and the arm was going to be stretched at short even pre-surgery. He might be a plus second base glove though, due to his excellent instincts and smooth, quick actions. The move to the right side of the infield puts more pressure on the bat though, and the early returns were a little disappointing. He’s just a bit over a year removed from going under the knife, but while his strong approach and contact skills are still present, the ball doesn’t jump off the bat the same way it did in Kingsport, and the bat speed looked fringy. That may come back, but it may not. There’s less physical projection now too as he’s filled out in the last two seasons. He’s quite young for the level, and I still think he’s the kind of polished player that will do enough at every stop to keep you dreaming on a major league future. But until the line drives get louder, Carpio looks more like a fringe utility guy than the potential regular of two years ago.

Blake Taylor, LHP

The player-to-be-named later in the Ike Davis deal—a trade that feels like it happened three full lifetimes ago for Mets fans—Taylor is still somehow only 21. In the interim, he’s struggled with performance and injuries, lost a year to Tommy John surgery, and finally made it to full season ball four seasons after being drafted. There isn’t much projection left at this point; Taylor has a mature frame with thick legs, but there’s enough stuff here at present to at least be intriguing. He sat 89-91, but he can cut it a bit, and it has some life up in the zone. His command of the pitch has improved, and he had success running it in to righties and splitting some lumber. His upper-70s curve had a nice shape to it, although he would cast it at times. It is a potentially average offering. He still throws a very forgettable cutter/slider thing, and I think I saw two changeups. There’s some deception in his delivery, and everything is very compact and repeatable. You are probably looking at a standard issue two-pitch lefty reliever here, but hey, that’s a major league role too.

Ali Sanchez, C

If Carpio was a little disappointing this week, Sanchez was very disappointing. I have advocated for him since the GCL—and yes, catchers are weird—but if I didn’t have better priors on Sanchez, I’d be tempted to call him a non-prospect. That is a pretty harsh grade for a catcher, as it doesn’t take much to be a viable emergency third catching option. So what’s changed? Despite pedestrian numbers in the complex and downright bad ones in Brooklyn, I’ve been fairly bullish on Sanchez’s bat. The swing I saw this year just had no oomph. He doesn’t use his lower half at all anymore, and while there is still enough feel with the barrel to make contact, it’s mostly bad/weak contact. There’s 20 power now, and the good contact tends to be short line drives up the middle or to the opposite field. The defense behind the plate was fine, but a little indifferent. He didn’t have to make any throws, but the reports are the arm is markedly improved at least. I have no special knowledge here, but Sanchez looked like a player struggling with a back or lower body injury right now. If he isn’t, well that non-prospect possibility looms a little larger.

Short Hops

LHP Jake Simon has room to grow into his wiry frame and an advanced curveball for the level, but there’s a lot of effort in the delivery at present and he was topping out at 90. OF Ricardo Cespedes underwhelmed again. The swing is mostly arms, all slash and chop and there isn’t much power there for how long it gets. He’s probably a corner outfielder long term too. C Brandon Brosher has 70-grade raw power and a plus arm, but the defense is still very rough, and he may not get the power into games enough to survive a move to one of the corners.

Photo credit: Reinhold Matay – USA Today Sports

Short Hops

The other Gonzalez in the rotation, Harol Gonzalez, is a joy to watch, with four pitches he can throw for strikes, and good feel for all three secondaries, the best of which is a slider with late cut. The fastball tops out at 90 though, and he has trouble holding even that velocity later in starts. There is enough pitchability here to beguile A-ball hitters, but it is tough to see a major league arm here without a significant velocity and stamina jump. The mini-Pedro aesthetic is fun though…The Mets tweaked 2016 third-round pick Blake Tiberi’s swing during his first pro summer, and that may have contributed to his short-season struggles. When his swing was right, the Louisville third baseman looked like the best hitter on that Brooklyn team. Expect plenty of Daniel Murphy—pre-Kevin-Long—comps if that happens more often in 2017…Jordan Humphreys is the less-polished version of Merandy Gonzalez, with a tick less velocity and a more inconsistent curve…shortstop Milton Ramos got $750,000 as an overslot third round pick in 2014 on the strength of his shortstop glove, but he struggled at the plate in his first go-round in the South Atlantic League, and may be stuck in a middle infield rotation with Carpio and 2017 fourth rounder Michael Paez…lefty Blake Taylor, who you may remember from the Ike Davis deal, will look to prove he is healthy after a 2015 Tommy John surgery. I liked what I saw in 2014 a bit, and he’s somehow still only 21.
Photo credit: Reinhold Matay – USA Today Sports

Last time I saw Harol Gonzalez pitch, he went 25 up, 25 down for Kingsport. This time he went 6.3 without allowing a hit. Maybe it’s me. The stuff didn’t look as sharp this summer though. He’s filled out a bit and looks closer to his listed 6’0″, 160. It’s still a very slender frame with narrow shoulders and thin legs. He could probably carry 20 more pounds and that might help with his stamina in games, but I don’t really see him adding that much to his frame at this point. The mechanics are still the same, a short leg lift, short stride, turns his front side to create some torque and deception. He’s very upright when he lands, and it’s an upper-body-heavy delivery. It reminds me a bit of Marcos Molina at times, but it’s not as vstiff and violent an arm action. He’s been able to repeat it well in the past, though he struggled with his command of all five pitches in this outing.

The fastball still sits in the upper 80s early on in his starts, which he can sink and run armside from his three-quarters slot. At his best he can work all four quadrants of the zone and elevate with late life, but his command of the fastball was shaky in this outing, and he was nibbling even in hitter’s counts. I had hoped if he added some strength he might sit in the low 90s, but it just hasn’t happened for him so far, and at 21, you wonder if it ever will.

Last year, Gonzalez featured a slurvy breaking ball. It was effective against Appy League batters and it would flash as a tighter slider at times. This year he is throwing both a slider and a slower curve. The slider was a mess early, but he snapped off some nice ones later in the outing. It’s not a true downer from that armslot, but it will show good gloveside tilt at times and is a potentially average offering with more consistency. The slow curve is still a work in progress. He would look like a good 11-5 downer in warm-ups, but when he tried to throw it in games it tended to flatten out and show early in game action. It seems like a pitch he is still figuring out how to throw, but there is some potential there, and he might need both breaking balls to give hitters some different looks given the overall profile.

The change-up is the party piece here. Gonzalez actually throws two of them. A fader at 79-81, and a split-change in the low 80s. He struggled to command it throughout the start and with the limited velo separation, he didn’t miss many bats as you’d think at this level, although he got some weak groundouts on the sinking version. Another potentially average major league offering, maybe a bit more for the split if you see it on a better day.

This is a tough profile. You don’t really see the stuff playing up in short bursts, and the package is more than the sum of its parts due to his ability to throw five different pitches in any count. He is more a pitchability than stuff guy, but the stuff just isn’t quite good enough to see a major league arm without a velocity bump that I am not confident is coming. He’s been passed as a prospect by his fellow Gonzalez at this point.

Ali Sanchez, C

Sanchez was No. 10 on our preseason Mets Prospect List and nothing I saw last week makes me regret that somewhat ambitious ranking. He’s been banged up early in the NYPL season, and a foul tip off of his throwing hand earlier in the week limited him to designated hitting in this look. I saw him catch in the complex last year, and while I will want an updated look later in the summer once he is healthy, I am confident in his ability to catch long term despite a below-average throwing arm. Sanchez had his right hand and wrist taped, but it did not appear to negatively affect him at the plate. I love his swing. I don’t know how much home run power he eventually develops, as the swing plane is pretty flat and he is already built like, well, a catcher, but I’m confident he will hit. The swing is simple, he is very good at hitting the ball where it is, working up-the-middle and opposite field especially well. And Sanchez gets more carry on the ball in games than you would think given the swing; for example, he flicked a double over the head of the right fielder in this look. Catcher development is rarely linear, and Sanchez is a long way away from having an impact in the majors, but despite the Mets system being deeper than it was 12 months ago, he is still easily a top-10 prospect for me.

Colby Woodmansee, SS

The Mets fifth-round pick out of Arizona State is a polished college bat that is already too good for the Penn League. All series he made a lot of hard contact off Connecticut arms, but consider that he was seeing a lot of mid-to-high-80s fastballs, and overall a level of pitching not that much better than the Pac-12. He came out of ASU with some good reports on his pop, and he is stronger than you would think, given his lean, almost wiry frame, but I don’t know how much over-the-fence power you’ll see with him swinging wood now.

The same amateur reports were mixed on his defensive future. He’s polished there too, good hands and actions. He’s a below-average runner, and I just didn’t see the first step quickness or overall range to stick at shortstop long term. This is the Mets, mind you, so he will probably play there for a while, but the athletic tools are just a bit short in all aspects. The arm is solid-average, and he could handle either second or third, but that will put pressure on the bat. He should move quickly through A-ball (and should really be in full-season ball right now, but Brooklyn must win), and we’ll have a better idea of what he is when he sees Double-A arms.

Blake Tiberi, 3B

The Mets scheduled Tiberi’s debut for the day after the Cyclones left town. These are the things that happen to the itinerant prospect writer. I did get to see him in a couple batting practice sessions, and for the most part he looked like a guy that had played a full baseball season already. He appeared a bit gassed, the timing was off, and he was popping balls into the cage. But every third swing or so he looked like the best hitter on the field. The second day of BP he got into a bit better rhythm. He keeps his hands low when he loads, driving through the swing with his front shoulder and hip. There is plenty of bat speed here and a nice sound when he squares the ball. It’s a line drive swing without much in the way of loft, so you do wonder about the power ceiling. There isn’t much projection left here either, Tiberi has filled out and has an almost square frame. My podcast co-host has been fishing for Daniel Murphy comps, but it’s a very different body and swing, even if I get the hit-over-power,  college-third-baseman resemblance Anyway, I don’t want to make grand pronouncements off a couple BP sessions, but what I saw from the Mets third-round pick, I liked.

Bryce Beeler, RHP

Beeler, the Mets 19th-round pick in 2014, is back on the field after missing all of last season due to Tommy John surgery. He got promoted to Columbia Monday, and he is well-equipped to have success at that level. He pitches with an easy tempo, although there is some late torque and effort in the delivery that makes it difficult for him to spot the fastball arm side. He’s a four-pitch reliever, featuring a fastball an upper 80s fastball that touched 91, a slider with short, late downer action (80-82), a slurvy curveball (75-79), and a decent change-up (79-82). Beeler mixes his pitches well, and while nothing here projects as above-average. He works out of the stretch now, but  if the Mets wanted to try him as a starter once he gets more post-TJ innings under his belt, I think he would have some success in A-ball. He reminds me a bit of Logan Verrett, but the fastball and slider aren’t quite as good as Verrett’s, so the OFP here isn’t as good either.

Nick Sergakis, IF

Sergakis was the Mets 23rd-round pick in this year’s draft. He is a 23-year old senior sign. In a mild upset, his listed height and weight of 5’8” and 175 pounds actually looked close to accurate. He played third base in college and second base in the two games I saw him. He likely gets displaced from regular playing time once the Mets are able to sign Michael Paez, their fourth round pick. But man, is Sergakis a fun little player. He has surprising pop. He put on the best show in batting practice of any of the Cyclones, and Darryl Knight and Brandon Brosher are no slouches in the raw power department. If you throw him something above the waist, he will hit it hard.

Otherwise the profile plays about how you would expect based on the first three sentences of this blurb. If you put his name up for an internet vote, Grindy McGrinderson would be the runaway winner. He got plunked twice, aggressively tagged up from second on a fly to left, and then scored on a shorter fly to left. He was sub-4 on a push bunt for a base hit. He’ll do enough of the little things, and hit enough dingers that I will look up in three years and he will be on somebody’s Triple-A roster without my writing anything else about him in the interim.

Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilis- USA Today Sports