Tyler Oringer: Well, this one is obvious. If you’ve been following any of my coverage throughout the season, you know how much I love the future first baseman for the Mets. The fact that the 23-year old was not called up this season in order to manipulate service time for his age 31 season is beyond belief – but hey, let’s stick to the good part.  Alonso finished his 2019 minor league campaign (65 games at Double-A, 67 in Triple-A) with 36 home runs, 119 RBIs and a triple slash of .285/.395/.579. The changes to his swing from 2017 were real, and allowed him to drive the ball to more fields with major league power, while also advancing his plate discipline to another level. The former Gator saw his OBP jump from .355 to the aforementioned .395.  Alonso finished a full minor league season between Double-A and Triple-A at 23 years old with an OPS of .975. Yes, his defense is not good, but the bat makes him the clear MVP of the Mets’ system in 2018.

Breakout prospect of the year: Jeff McNeil

Alex Rosen: Jeffrey, Jarrett and I were all on McNeil as a future major league contributor before July (and as early as 2014 in Jeffrey’s case) but we’d all be lying if we said we saw this coming. Injuries limited him to just 21 games above A-ball in 2016 and 2017 but McNeil rode a vastly improved frame and a new stomp and pull approach all the way to Queens before the end of July. He’s been the Mets’ best position player since the day he arrived in Flushing – not to mention one of the best players across all of baseball – and gives the organization another cost-controlled above-average regular to build around.

“Cy Young”: Um… Justin Dunn and David Peterson… I guess

TO: DISCLAIMER: I don’t feel comfortable giving either of these guys a Cy Young vote here, but the Mets didn’t really have any impressive season showings from any of their developing starting arms. Dunn, a 2016 first round pick out of Boston College, was okay this season but did improve greatly from 2017. He did struggle a bit in Double-A but flashed some of the potential the Mets have seen, striking out 156 batters in 135.1 innings. Control has continued to be an issue for the 22-year-old, but next season should be a massive stepping stone in his development. I’ve always felt his relief potential was immense and he could be extremely valuable there, but it would be quite the stretch to move him to the bullpen any time soon. Like Dunn, Peterson was good, not great. The 2017 first rounder dominated full-season A-ball, but was knocked around by Advanced-A hitting, surrendering 74 hits in 68.2 innings pitched. The southpaw already has the control and movement to be a legitimate prospect, he just needs to serve up fewer hittable pitches as he goes on.

Platinum Glove: Luis Guillorme

TO: A favorite of mine who was handled as poorly as he could have been in 2018.  Regardless, Guillorme is already an elite defender. If given the chance to start at shortstop or second base in a full major league season, the 23-year-old would challenge for a Gold Glove.  Guillorme flashes some of the smoothest actions and fluidness that any middle infielder in the minors has shown over the past few years. There is a lot to love about Guillorme, if the Mets could just figure out a way to best utilize his talents.

Comeback prospect of the year: Justin Dunn

AR: Dunn’s full-season debut couldn’t have gone much worse, but he rebounded nicely and took care of business in 2018, tossing about 90 innings in Binghamton en route to winning the organizations minor league pitcher of the year award. It was more of “meh” season by top pitching prospect standards, but even that was markedly better than Dunn’s 2017 in the Florida State League. There’s still a ton of room for improvement, especially with the change-up, but 2018 was without a doubt a step in the right direction. The stuff came back, the command improved and Dunn’s now one step closer to the big leagues.

Most likely to have their service time manipulated: Peter Alonso Andres Gimenez

AR: Oh, this is for the future? (looks at personal pref list…) Andres Gimenez it is! Until the rules change in the next CBA, teams are going to hold down top prospects to gain that extra year of control. It’s going to happen to Gimenez too, unless the Mets find themselves in a pennant race in 2019 with a hole to fill. Nevertheless, Gimenez had a tremendous 2018 season across Port St. Lucie and Binghamton, solidifying himself as one of the best prospects in the game.

The Ty Kelly Memorial Roster Spot: Gavin Cecchini

AR: Cecchini was off to a solid start in Las Vegas before a foot injury sidelined him for the rest of the season. He’s seemingly been around for forever, though he somehow won’t turn 25 ‘till December, but his spot on the 40-man is hanging by a thread. The former first rounder has never really received an extended stay with the big league club, but seems like a prime candidate to hang around as organizational depth for a number of years.

Best early return from the 2018 draft: Ross Adolph

TO: Adolph was drafted in the 12th round of the 2018 First Year Player Draft, but has already shown his value in his first year in Brooklyn. In my live look at Adolph, he did not get any hits or even take good routes to the ball in the field, but the athletically built outfielder owned a noticeably advanced approach at the plate and looked the part. The Toledo alum put up some nice number with the Cyclones, OPSing .857 with 14 stolen bases and an affinity for chasing down balls in the outfield.

Most likely to receive the Dominic Smith treatment: Mark Vientos

AR: Vientos still has a long ways to go before he’s a viable major league contributor, but he’s an early round pick who might find playing time hard to come by at the big league level. Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez look to be franchise cornerstones in the infield and Jeff McNeil’s not going anywhere anytime soon, leaving Vientos without a future home on the dirt as of now. Of course, these things tend to sort themselves out, but it hasn’t with Smith at the big league level for one reason or another. A similar fate could be awaiting Vientos, though we’re at least a couple of years away from having to even entertain the possibility.

Most likely to pitch too many high leverage innings: Kevin Smith

AR: The Mets went reliever heavy on Day Two of the 2018 MLB Draft, using a seventh rounder to grab Smith, a crafty SEC lefty with starting experience. There’s likely some internal hope that Smith can start, but having seen him this summer, I can tell you with confidence that that ain’t happening. He’s a future LOOGY in the Jerry Blevins/Daniel Zamora mold who’ll probably be overused like Blevins was in 2017. To be clear, a major league LOOGY is a fine outcome here, but the Mets have an affinity for Smith that I just personally don’t see.

The Reliever of the Carousel of Relievers Who Is Legit:  Drew Smith

TO: Bad timing – I know.  Anyway, Smith possesses true back-end relief talent which has come through in his every stop in the minors and more recently, the majors. I wrote about Smith back in Week 7 of the Prospect Watch, and stand by those previous comments.  Smith’s fastball and slider combination poses the potential for some elite late-inning stuff which has already come to fruition in 2018. When Sandy Alderson traded a fading Lucas Duda for a relief arm, people were concerned, but it would not be crazy to me if Smith is closing with success for New York in the near future.

Biggest Disappointment: Desmond Lindsay

TO: When Lindsay was drafted in the second round of the 2015 draft, big things were expected. The centerfielder looked to have the tools, body, and pedigree to turn into a major league regular, but things have just not transpired that way. Lindsay is still stuck in Advanced-A ball, and has not shown any reason to get out of it. The right-handed hitting high school pick has OPSed .715 and .640 in consecutive seasons – and unless he makes the necessary adjustments to his approach, his athleticism may end up going to waste. Injuries have hampered the 21-year old throughout his short career, so there is still a bit of hope – but change must come fast.

Happiest Met to head to Syracuse: Nabil Crismatt

AR: If Crismatt pitched the entire season in Binghamton, he’d have been my choice for the Cy Young award. Unfortunately, we can’t erase those nine starts in Las Vegas and Crismatt will instead have to settle for the “Happiest Met to head to Syracuse” designation. His strong season in Double-A proved there’s a future major league contributor here, but the disaster in the desert muddied things. The Mets will need to protect Crismatt from the Rule-5 draft this offseason by adding him to the 40-man roster, which currently seems like a toss-up at best. He should absolutely be protected, but this is the Mets and they’ll let him go to Oakland, where he’ll suddenly become a No.3 starter.

Best trade deadline acquisition: Franklyn Kilome

TO: This is quite obvious, but not because the other acquisitions were bad – it’s because Kilome, the only player from the Asdrubal Cabrera deal with the Phillies, is that good. The 6’6,” 175-pound 23-year old, has shown to have an advanced upper-90s fastball along with an impressive curveball which has a swing-and-miss movement. In Double-A, Kilome struck out 125 batters in 140 innings, but did walk 61.  Kilome needs to work on his control, but the young right-hander does flash the stuff to succeed as a major league starter – and should see time on the big league club at some point next year.

Most excited to see in 2019: Thomas Szapucki

AR: Szapucki missed the entire season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, but is set to return to the mound in 2019. He’s only thrown a total of 83.1 innings in his brief career and will turn 23 next June, but Szapucki has undeniable upside that enticed virtually everyone who saw him. He flashed three potential plus offerings from a tough slot prior to the injury, giving him top of the rotation upside if he could simply stay healthy. There’s no question he’s behind the developmental curve, but 2019 could be a make or break season for the left-hander.

Tim Tebow Award: Tim Tebow

TO: Sorry, I just had to.

Photo credit: Brad Penner – USA Today Sports

Binghamton Rumble Ponies (Double-A)

Pitcher: Justin Dunn

After a disappointing full-season debut in 2017, Dunn returned to the Florida State League looking to rebound on what was essentially a lost season. In 2016, the Mets’ first rounder had a 5.00 ERA and walked 48 in 95.1 innings with Port St. Lucie before a shoulder injury ended his season. His second go-around went much smoother, with Dunn earning a well-deserved promotion to Binghamton after dominating FSL hitters to the tune of a 2.36 ERA and 51 strikeouts against 15 walks in 45.2 innings.

Dunn’s showed well in Binghamton thus far, striking out more than a batter per nine while keeping his walk rate in check. Jeffrey Paternostro, our lead prospect writer over at the main site, saw Dunn with Binghamton and thought his stuff was actually a tick down from where it had been previously. Instead of the mid-90s fastball, the pitch was sitting more in the 91-94 range. Dunn’s been thought to have a plus fastball, but that’s merely average velocity for a starter nowadays. He’s essentially a two-pitch pitcher at present, with a slider that flashes above average as well. Dunn is also working on developing his change, a needed part of the repertoire if he wants to succeed as a starter in the big leagues.

Although his numbers have been significantly better this season, it’s hard not to be a little disappointed with the reports on Dunn. His stock has increased from last season, but he looks like more of a No. 4 or 5 starter or a late-inning arm rather than a potential top of the rotation arm.

Hitter: Tomas Nido

Old friend Tomas Nido garnered some hype in the offseason as a potential major league caliber catcher, but was called into duty far too quickly due to injuries and struggled mightily in his first extended taste with the Mets. Nido’s likely always going to be glove before bat, but he’ll need to improve on a .446 OPS if he ever wants to stick around in the majors.

Nido returned to Binghamton, where he started the season, and has actually put up a decent line of .273/.297/.453 in almost 140 at-bats. He’s got 14 doubles and three home runs, fairly good numbers for a player who struggled severely a couple months ago.

Here’s where it gets worrisome: Nido has drawn just three walks this season and is repeating the level. While he’s not striking out an exorbitant amount, he’s not getting any free bases either. That’s a problem for a 24-year-old who’s never shown power numbers that may excuse that type of walk rate in the minors. Nido might and likely will have a career as a glove-first backup, but the bat isn’t anything to get excited about, limiting his potential impact at the major league level.

Pitcher: Harol Gonzalez

The aforementioned Jeffrey Paternostro loves him some Harol Gonzalez. The 23-year-old right-hander had a Jacob deGrom experience of his own in Port St. Lucie, winning a single game and losing six with a 2.82 ERA. With higher level affiliates in need of starting pitching, the Mets promoted Gonzalez to Vegas for a single start, and now to Binghamton, where he’ll presumably spend the rest of the season.

Gonzalez has a fringy fastball and his secondary offerings aren’t anything to write home about, but he’s had success at every stop in the minors, sort of like Nabil Crismatt. Crismatt’s got the better stuff, but both have a long track record of success. With Crismatt’s promotion to Las Vegas, Gonzalez took his spot in the Rumble Ponies rotation. He’s only made one start thus far, but this is the level where we’ll find out about whether his stuff can one day play in a major league rotation, or even the bullpen.

Port St. Lucie (Advanced-A)

Pitcher: David Peterson

Peterson’s first six starts in St. Lucie haven’t gone as expected. He’s got a 17:13 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 6.82 ERA, uninspiring numbers for a player many thought should be a level higher at this stage of his career. Part of the appeal in last year’s draft with Peterson was his polish as a college lefty who could move quickly, but it’s now unlikely he even moves to Binghamton before the end of the season.

The reports on his stuff as a whole have been down a bit since last season, and the peripherals back that up. Peterson’s still the best pitching prospect in the system, but the reports and results have been a little discouraging for the left-hander. He’s too good to struggle like this in Advanced-A though, so we’ll check back in a couple more starts to see if anything’s changed.

Hitter: Jeremy Vasquez

A sleeper name who got off to a great start in the Sally League, Vasquez was promoted to St. Lucie less than two weeks ago. He’s off to a rough start but it’s only been 11 games, far too small of a sample. The left-handed hitting first basemen is a hit-before-power prospect, a tough profile that puts a lot of pressure on the hit tool, especially for a 1B-only guy.

While he has shown doubles power, Vasquez hit just six home runs in almost 300 at-bats for Columbia. Vasqeuz should finish the season in St. Lucie and may possibly begin 2019 down in Florida as well. He’s a name to follow, I suppose, but expectations should be minimal. The reality is that as a 28th rounder out of college, reaching Double-A would be a win for the organization.

Hitter: Desmond Lindsay

The expectations for a second rounder are far higher than they are for a 28th rounder, and Lindsay has been a severe disappointment this season. The oft-injured center fielder has only taken 685 at-bats in four seasons and is struggling in St. Lucie to the tune of a .621 OPS. Lindsay’s striking out 26% of the time with a walk rate of 12.1%, but his slugging percentage is actually lower than his on-base percentage. He’s hitting just .208/.311/.309 this season and while the FSL does suppress offense, this is a new low for one of the Mets’ top prospects. All that being said, it shouldn’t come as any surprise that he wasn’t listed in our BP Mets midseason organizational review.

Lindsay has stayed mostly healthy this season – a win in and of itself – but it doesn’t really matter if his tools don’t start showing up in games. He’ll be eligible for the Rule 5 draft next season and the Mets will have an interesting decision on their hands. If I had to guess, Lindsay’s unlikely to be protected unless he starts to show some signs of becoming the major league caliber player the Mets thought he could become.

Photo credit: Gregory Fisher – USA Today Sports

BP Mets writer Tyler Oringer joined me this week to offer his opinions on former Prospect Watch players Luis Guillorme, Justin Dunn and Jeremy Vasquez.

Las Vegas 51s (Triple-A)

Pitcher: Gerson Bautista

Bautista started the year in Binghamton but he’s already pitched at three levels this season, including a brief ride on the Mets bullpen shuttle. He was part of the return from Boston for Addison Reed and fits in the same mold as the other relievers that were acquired during the 2017 sell-off. Bautista has a live arm and is mainly fastball-slider, but he mixes in a below-average changeup as well. The fastball sits in the high 90s and regularly touches 100; it’s already a legitimate 70, a plus-plus pitch. The problem for Bautista is his fastball’s so good that he hasn’t had to develop his secondary offerings to get minor league hitters out. This season marks the first time Bautista’s pitched above A-ball and his lack of another quality offering has gotten him into some trouble. In his cup of tea in the majors earlier this season, Bautista threw his fastball an astounding 86% of the time. He’s more comfortable throwing his slider than his changeup (11% and 3%, respectively) but neither is even an average offering at this point. That’s a big problem for a potential high-leverage reliever, especially considering Bautista has poor command as well. I’m extremely doubtful that Bautista can be an effective high-leverage guy throwing his fastball almost 90% of the time. In order to pull that off, he’d need to add a couple more ticks to the fastball, which seems unlikely at this point. The Mets sent Bautista to Las Vegas to work on developing his secondaries further, but he’s struggled with his command and has been hit hard. Here’s my biggest gripe with Bautista: I’m concerned his 70 fastball is going to play down in the majors because of how often he throws it. Bautista has great velo but ultimately it’s nothing major league hitters haven’t already seen. It’s extremely hard to throw your fastball by major league hitters that know you throw a fastball nine out of every ten pitches. I’m lower on Bautista than most due to the lack of secondaries and poor command, but he’s still young and should get plenty of opportunities to keep developing his off-speed.

Hitter: Luis Guillorme (*Called up to New York Mets*)

I did a scouting report a few weeks back on Guillorme and Alex briefly discussed him in a prior Prospect Watch.

The most impressive defensive Mets prospect (and my favorite) has been called up to the big league club.  His surge in Triple-A over the last two weeks is just a small sample size of what he has done his entire minor league career.

I’ll get to his aforementioned future Gold Glove defense in a second, but his hitting and approach to the plate forced Sandy Alderson’s hand following the injury of Todd Frazier.

On April 28, Guillorme was slashing just .213/.333/.279. However, these numbers were bound to change as his quick yet through-the-zone swing and knack for recognizing pitches led to an absolute tear. By May 7, the day of his promotion, the middle infielder was raking .300/.390/.433 with seven doubles, a triple and a home run. He’s been clutch in that time, versatile in the order and even showing a bit more speed. For context, if I had to compare Guillorme’s initial bat and approach to someone in the Majors right now it would be Greg Garcia of the Cardinals with less power. The similarities are actually glaring. This is all in addition to his second-to-none glove.  Though he is just 5’10”, he gets to balls that he should not be able to get to and moves with a Major League smoothness.

I don’t want to beat a dead horse, but he projects as an 80 second baseman and 70-75 shortstop. High praise, but well deserved.

Binghamton Rumble Ponies (Double-A)

Pitcher: Joshua Torres

Originally a member of the Milwaukee Brewer’s organization, Torres was released in March 2016 and signed a minor league free agent contract with the Mets in December of the same year. Like Bautista above, this is his first season above A-ball in his seven-year minor league career and he’s off to quite the start. In just 10.2 innings for Binghamton thus far, Torres has been really impressive with his 0.84 ERA and 16 strikeouts against four walks. He’s always had decent strikeout numbers, but he struck out 77 in 63 innings last year at High-A Port St. Lucie in what was his best professional season to date. Torres was old for the level, but he’s shown much of the same strikeout prowess in Binghamton so far. I’ve gotten a couple of live looks at Torres this season and to be honest, his stuff is pretty underwhelming for a relief prospect. He sits just 91-94 with his fastball and it’s just an average pitch, but the results have been good so far. Here’s the bad news: Torres is an extreme flyball pitcher in an era where you really don’t want to be one. He’s currently running a pathetic 17.4% groundball rate this season and his HR/FB of 0.0% makes him a prime regression candidate. I haven’t even mentioned that he’s stranded 93% of base runners this season, a mark that should level off near his career average of 73.1% sometime soon. This is a classic case where the results are not indicative of the stuff, and a reminder that there’s more to scouting than just the stat line. I don’t think Torres will be more than organizational depth at Triple-A, but he’s someone to keep an eye on this summer until his underlying numbers catch up to his results.

Hitter: Jeff McNeil

McNeil was a 12th round draft pick of the Mets in 2013 and has played at pretty much every level of the system throughout his six-year minor league career. Primarily a second baseman, McNeil projects as a super-utility type based on his ability to play all over the diamond. He’s the owner of a gorgeous left-handed swing and has an opposite field approach at the dish. While he does have six home runs already this season, McNeil has never had much pop and isn’t likely to add that to his game now that he’s 26. The Mets system is light up top but seemingly full of interesting relievers and utility players, and McNeil looks like a major leaguer bench piece for someone. He’s currently slashing .276/.364/.609 in just under 90 at-bats for Binghamton and could get a call to Las Vegas if Luis Guillorme is up for an extended amount of time. The age is obviously an issue here, but our own Jeffrey Paternostro saw McNeil this week and thinks he’s still a low-risk bench player for some organization. It’s hard to see a path to playing time for McNeil with the Mets anytime soon, but I prefer him to Phil Evans, who I wrote about in last week’s Prospect Watch and is already on the 40-man. My reasoning for preferring McNeil is quite simple: I think McNeil’s a better defender and more likely to hit for average than Evans. I’ll be getting my first live look at McNeil next week and will have a more in-depth look in my next scouting notes piece.

Port St. Lucie Mets (High-A)

Pitcher: Justin Dunn

Alex discussed Dunn in Week One of the Prospect Watch, but I am here to expand a bit on his evaluations.

The 2016 first round pick out of Boston College, Dunn was expected to be a massive part of Mets future.  He flashed an explosiveness when pitching for Boston College that caught many scouts’ eyes. He was initially a reliever and then closed for BC, eventually being moved into the starting rotation. The 6’2”185-pound lanky righty extends fairly far to the plate out of the windup, something that was very deceptive for hitters that faced him in 2016 in short season A-ball and throughout his time in college.  With the Brooklyn Cyclones, Dunn notched a 1.50 ERA and 1.17 WHIP while striking out 35 in 30 innings pitches.

Alarming though, Dunn struggled mightily in 2017 at high-A.  The concerns about his lack of command and ability to find an outpitch other than his slider led to his beatings against lefties versus whom he got absolutely rocked. He walked 48 batters in 95.1 innings pitched and finished the season with a 5.00 ERA. After an abysmal and scary year for his career, Dunn needed to show Mets brass and scouts alike that his first round value was no fluke.

In 2018, so far, kind of good. But certainly better. The former BC Eagle’s fastball runs from 92-95 and can reach 96-97 on rare occasion.  Due to his deceptiveness strictly due to the extension of his motion, his slider has fooled opposing hitters. Now at High-A St. Lucie again, Dunn’s adjustments are noticeable: He has improved his pseudo-curve/slider and changeup a bit and is mixing his pitches better. In five starts thus far this year, the former first rounder has compiled a 2.13 ERA, and is clearly pitching to contact more often.  However, because of this, he has given up 29 hits in 25.1 innings pitches.  Impressively, he has still struck out 28 batters while walking nine – but his proneness to serving up hittable pitches is a bit frightening. Of course, though, now he is on the DL with a minor injury.

Dunn can be a solid number three starter if he expands on his third and fourth pitches, but at the moment is worthy of future backend rotation/long relief consideration with his current attributes. Initially, he struck me as someone who may be converted into a late-inning long reliever to closer type due to his college experience and two-pitch repertoire, but with his new tendencies and high WHIP, I think he’ll be relied on as just a starter as planned.

Columbia Fireflies (Low-A)

Hitter: Jeremy Vasquez

Alex discussed Vasquez in Week Two of the Prospect Watch, but I am here to expand a bit on his evaluations.

If you’re a Mets fan, the name Dominic Smith has been drilled into your head as the next “guy” at first base for the past few years.   However, it is appearing more and more likely that Smith is not what he was once touted to be. Now, Peter Alonso is shaping up to be the favorite in the organization. But there is another impressive first baseman looming. Jeremy Vasquez, the 2017 Round 28 pick, is tearing up Single-A pitching and making a case for a promotion if Alonso finds himself in Triple-A or even the majors.

The lefty Vasquez transferred to Nova Southeastern after two productive years at the University of Florida and has really impressed so far in 2018. Though he does not fit the profile of a typical first base prospect or even typical first baseman for that matter, the 6’1” 205-pound former Gator has the tools to make some sort of impact at the highest level. Last season, Vasquez slashed .266/.368/.430 – nothing too special. Yet, his swing and eye were noticeably advanced for the level he was playing at.

Now adjusted to A-league pitching, the newly notable prospect is slashing .315/.426/.514. At 21 years old, he is old for the level he’s at and while this isn’t necessarily a good thing, he has proven that he’s soon to be ready for the next step. Because of his lack of power, average defense, and presence of Alonso (and Smith), Vasquez may need to shift to right field, where he played during his sophomore year at UF, at some point to carve a role with the Mets. He still needs more reps at full season A-ball, but flashes a solid hit tool and advanced eye. The first baseman needs to put more torque in his swing to truly rise the ranks of the Mets system, but is looking like a great find for New York.

Photo credit: Jasen Vinlove – USA Today Sports

2010

Round 1: Pick 7

Matt Harvey, SP (North Carolina)

This was the last year of Omar Minaya’s tenure as Mets’ GM, and he truly left New York with a bevy of talent in the minor leagues. Matt Harvey is obviously a popular topic of conversation right now for negative reasons, but Minaya knocked it out of the park taking him in the first round eight years ago. Pitching is fickle any way you look at it, and few pitchers in the history of baseball had the immediate impact Harvey did on the game. His debut in 2012 was impressive, his dominance in 2013 was nearly unprecedented, and after missing a season due to Tommy John surgery, winning comeback player of the year in 2015 en route to helping the Mets win the National League pennant cemented his place as one of New York’s best first-round picks ever. Injuries in recent years have sapped Harvey of what he once was, but let’s not forget quite how good he really was.

As for the rest of the Mets’ 2010 draft, Minaya left the new regime quite a parting gift in ninth round pick Jacob deGrom.

2011

Round 1: Pick 13

Brandon Nimmo, OF (High School)

Brandon Nimmo was Sandy Alderson’s first first round pick as GM of the Mets, and prior to his emergence last season, he was at risk of being proclaimed a bust. Nimmo was taken with the pick directly before Miami selected Jose Fernandez, and those comparisons will always be there, but the kid from Wyoming has begun to distinguish himself over the past 12 months or so. Nimmo plays like a seasoned veteran, has a keen awareness of the strike zone, is not fazed by pressure, and most importantly has fun and enjoys playing the game. He’s currently New York’s fourth outfielder but that has everything to do with how much talent the Mets currently have on the roster, as he’d easily be a starter most other places.

Round 1: Pick 44

Michael Fulmer, SP (High School)

Fulmer never threw a pitch for the Mets but holds a place in team history, as he was the centerpiece of New York’s 2015 deadline trade with the Tigers for Yoenis Cespedes. The big right hander has gone on to become one of the better pitchers in the American League, but that hasn’t changed the fact that it was a good trade for the Amazins’.

Other familiar names New York drafted this year include Robert Gsellman, Logan Verrett, Jack Leathersich, Tyler Pill, Danny Muno and Phil Evans.

2012

Round 1: Pick 12

Gavin Cecchini, IF (High School)

Cecchini was the second of three consecutive high school players Alderson drafted in the first round, and he is by far the one most at risk of the bust label. The Louisiana native has seen limited time in the big leagues to date, and while he has shown flashes at times, he clearly is not high on the team’s organizational depth chart.

Round 1: Pick 35

Kevin Plawecki, C (Purdue)

The Mets’ better first round pick from this draft was their supplemental selection: Plawecki, who has been far from a star but has at least proven himself to be a big league player. It’s well documented how the Mets are in the market for catching at the moment, and while Plawecki getting hurt sort of sent that into overdrive, they had already needed help behind the plate. Catcher is arguably the most difficult position to find a bonafide star, and if you can develop one that can at minimum be a strong contributor to your roster, you did well.

Some other familiar names New York drafted in 2012 include Paul Sewald, Tomas Nido, Matt Reynolds, Matt Bowman and Chris Flexen.

2013

Round 1: Pick 11

Dominic Smith, 1B (High School)

Dom Smith had long been viewed as the Mets first base successor to Lucas Duda, and I guess in some capacity he still is, although his top prospect status has certainly dwindled. During his first extended big league opportunity down the stretch last season the LA native hit on the interstate, and he failed to make a positive impression on new manager Mickey Callaway during this year’s spring training. Smith is currently hitting just .246 for Triple-A Las Vegas, and he’ll have to seriously pick it up for New York to consider pulling the plug on Adrian Gonzalez anytime soon.

Sadly, as a whole the 2013 draft was a disappointment for the Mets, as the only other player from that class to make it to Citi Field was reliever Kevin McGowan.

2014

Round 1: Pick 10

Michael Conforto, OF (Oregon State)

To date, Conforto represents the biggest draft hit for Alderson and his staff, and perhaps not coincidentally he was the first collegiate player they drafted this high. In Conforto, the Mets added a pure hitter who was in the big leagues in just 13 months, not only filling a roster spot, but becoming a critical component of a World Series team. Last season, the Washington native blossomed into a star, and he’s well on his way to becoming the club’s next face of the franchise.

The rest of this draft class was not quite as big a smashing success, as nobody else has reached the majors; the most recognizable prospect on the list is Dash Winningham.

2015

Round 2: Pick 53

Desmond Lindsay, OF (High School)

The Mets did not have a first round pick in 2015 as they had to surrender that selection to Colorado as compensation for signing Michael Cuddyer as a free-agent, so their first pick in the draft came at number 53 overall in the way of Desmond Lindsay. The Florida-born outfielder has unfortunately never hit for the power he was projected to as he owns only 13 career minor league home runs, and he’s failed to advance past High-A St. Lucie.

The rest of New York’s 2015 draft class is more promising, as Thomas Szapucki, David Thompson, Corey Taylor and P.J. Conlon are all considered viable prospects.

2016

Round 1: Pick 19

Justin Dunn, SP (Boston College)

Dunn was a much talked about arm leading up to this draft, and the Mets were absolutely thrilled to add him with pick number 19. His minor league career got off to a little bit of a bumpy start but he has figured it out of late, and he’s unanimously considered one of New York’s premier prospects. In St. Lucie this year, the right hander has been dominant, pitching to a 1.80 ERA in 20 innings.

Other notable Mets draft picks from 2016 include Anthony Kay, Michael Paez and Peter Alonso.

2017

Round 1: Pick 20

David Peterson, SP (Oregon)

Most scouts consider the left-handed Peterson the Mets’ top minor league arm, and New York is confident he’ll be on an accelerated track to the big leagues. The former Oregon Duck is currently pitching for the Mets’ A-ball team in Columbia, but they’re hopeful he’ll be able to advance to St. Lucie some time before the end of the year.

Another name to watch from this class is 3B Mark Vientos, whom New York selected in the second round, as the team believes he can ultimately become their first long-term answer at the hot corner since David Wright.

Photo credit: Andy Marlin – USA Today Sports

Triple-A Las Vegas 51s

Pitcher: RHP Chris Flexen

Flexen is a borderline top 10 prospect in the system because of his proximity to the majors and his relatively safe floor, not because he possesses ace-like upside. Although he made his major league debut for the Mets last season and already has nine big league starts under his belt, he was able to retain his rookie eligibility by virtue of coming up two innings shy of 50, which technically makes him still a prospect. The 6’3,” 250-pound right-hander sits 90-95 mph with his fastball and mixes in a knuckle curve and a changeup that are both slightly above average, as well as a slider that’s comfortably behind the rest of his offerings. Flexen’s major league debut wasn’t pretty, as his 7.88 ERA and 6.56 BB/9 were, how do I say this nicely, absolutely terrible. His biggest weakness is his command, which seems to come and go in spurts, but it’s definitively more bad than good. The Mets sent Flexen to Triple-A Las Vegas to begin the season, and the early numbers are conflicting to say the least. On one hand, Flexen holds a 3.60 ERA and has struck out 11 in 15 innings of work. On the other, he’s walked seven batters already and holds an ugly 1.73 WHIP. Now, there are three guarantees in life: death, taxes, and Jose Reyes not getting a h… oh different article sorry, Hansel Robles pointing at every fly b…my apologies again, I meant to say runs being scored in the Pacific Coast League. The ERA is very promising, but the seven walks in just 15 innings is a big concern for a pitcher who’s projected as a back-end starter. I prefer my No. 5 guys to be innings eaters with good command, not hit or miss guys with strikeout stuff and command issues. Flexen probably is what he is at this point, a No. 4/5 starter who has good stuff but lacks command, and all things considered, that isn’t a bad thing at all. In all likelihood, Flexen will make some major league starts this season; let’s just hope they come in September with the Mets up comfortably in the division.

Hitter: SS Luis Guillorme

I had the chance to see Guillorme live last week and let me tell you, it’s an absolute joy to watch him play baseball. In possession in some of the best hands in all of professional baseball, Guillorme makes highlight reel plays left and right and is nothing short of a wizard out at shortstop. He’s only about 5’9” and is a below average runner, but his instincts and hand-eye coordination make him one of the best defensive prospects in the minor leagues right now. Tyler Oringer took a more in-depth look at Guillorme earlier this month and is of the belief that he could eventually win a Gold Glove at shortstop. It’s unlikely that happens with the Mets though, as the team seems to have found its shortstop of the future in Amed Rosario, which means Guillorme’s long-term fit with the Mets may be at second. With less ground to cover, it’s not much of a stretch to say that Guillorme could be one of, if not the, best defensive second baseman in the majors right now. In his first taste of Triple-A, Guillorme has struggled to begin the season, as he’s currently slashing .224/.333/.306 with a 20.7% K-rate. Don’t expect it to continue though, as Guillorme has shown a knack for getting on base at every level of his professional career thus far. While he won’t ever hit for power or steal more than 10 bases, Guillorme’s all-world defensive abilities coupled with his ability to get on base will allow him to have a long and successful career in the majors.

Double-A Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Pitcher: RHP Nabil Crismatt

This was the hardest selection to make on the entire list, as Binghamton’s whole pitching staff has been outstanding thus far. There were many worthy candidates, such as RHP Tyler Bashlor, RHP Eric Hanhold and RHP Gerson Bautista, but for this week’s Prospect Watch we’ll focus on Nabil Crismatt and his unbelievable start to the season. In three starts for Binghamton, Crismatt has thrown 16.1 IP, holding a pristine 1.10 ERA while striking out 21 and walking only three. The 23-year-old spent the entirety of 2017 with Single-A Port St. Lucie, striking out 142 batters over 145 innings with a respectable 3.95 ERA. Crismatt’s best offering is his changeup and it’s his only above-average pitch, leading to most of us to believe the high strikeout totals won’t continue in the majors. Still, the minor league strikeout numbers thus far are fantastic and give him a relatively high floor as a starter. Add to that command that’s comfortably plus and it’s easy to see him as a big league starter. Crismatt projects as a No. 4/5 starter just like the previously mentioned Flexen, but they are completely different and win in different ways. I prefer Crismatt due to the plus command and high strikeout totals though, and I’m looking forward to seeing if he can keep this pace up.

Hitter: 1B Peter Alonso

I wrote up Alonso in my Double-A scouting notes piece here so I won’t go too in-depth, but I’d be remiss to leave him off this list. Alonso’s undoubtedly been the best hitter in the system thus far, slashing .340/.414/.620 with three home runs already for Binghamton. The former Florida Gator has done nothing but rake since his 2016 New York Penn-League debut and is quickly challenging Dominic Smith’s place as the Mets first baseman of the future. I don’t think it’s crazy to prefer Alonso to Smith at this point, but don’t interpret that as a shot at Smith, who still deserves a chance. If Alonso keeps this pace up, it’s going to be hard for the Mets to justify keeping him down at Double-A, especially if Adrian Gonzalez starts slumping. Alonso profiles as a future regular at first, but it remains to be seen if he’s going to get the opportunity to prove it with the Mets.

Single-A: Port St. Lucie and Columbia

Pitcher: RHP Justin Dunn (Port St. Lucie)

The Mets’ first round pick in the 2016 draft struggled last year in his first taste of High-A Port St. Lucie, but he’s been nothing short of terrific in his second go around. Dunn’s started three games for Port St. Lucie thus far and owns a dominant 1.26 ERA with 19 strikeouts across his 14.1 innings. He struggled with command issues in 2017, walking 48 against only 75 strikeouts, but his 19 strikeouts more than make up for the six free passes he’s issued so far. Dunn is the owner of absolutely electric stuff, but it remains to be seen if he can hold it throughout a full season. Dunn was in the bullpen at Boston College, but a move to the rotation in his draft eligible season proved to be a good one, as he proved he could hold his stuff while starting. The 22-year-old is one of the best pitching prospects in the system, but he has a long way to go before he receives the call. The first step in that process is continuing to dominate at High-A, and Dunn looks to be back on the straight path toward the big leagues. Dunn projects as a No. 2/3 starter on stuff alone, but his inconsistent performance impact that, and he’s more likely a No. 3/4 starter with reliever risk.

Hitter: OF Desmond Lindsay

Lindsay was a second-round pick of the Mets in the 2015 draft due to his five-tool potential, but injuries and inconsistent performance have impacted his ascendance in the minors. Scouts see Lindsay and dream of an athletic center fielder with plus hit and plus power, but it’s fair to say he hasn’t come close to realizing his full potential. In an injury-riddled 2017 with Low-A Columbia, Lindsay hit a paltry .220/.327/.388 while only swiping four bases. The Mets chose to promote Lindsay to begin 2018, and the results have been more of the same, as he’s slashing .237/.356/.289 in 38 at-bats thus far. Lindsay’s unsurprisingly dealt with a minor injury already, and his complete lack of doubles and home runs are extremely concerning. At some point in the near future, Lindsay is going to need to turn the potential he possesses into results. That being said, he’s still a 21-year-old that flashes five-tool potential, and you simply don’t give up on prospects like that. Lindsay is going to get plenty of chances, and if he can stay healthy for a reasonable amount of time, he’s got a chance to put it all together and become a major leaguer.

Photo credit: Gregory Fisher – USA Today Sports

Joining Justin Dunn in the St. Lucie rotation to open the season—and hopefully in Binghamton before the year is over—is Marcos Molina (#15). Like Dunn, the 22-year-old pitcher comes with questions as to his ability to remain as a starter, yet those doubts are even louder with Molina. While athletic with plus stuff, Molina’s mechanics are far from ideal as he makes his return from Tommy John surgery. After sitting in the upper 80s with his fastball on the minor league backfields at the end of spring training, Molina has found his way back onto the disabled list to open the season. The complete lack of involvement of his lower body in his delivery puts an exorbitant amount of stress on his arm, which is unlikely to be sustainable for a starting pitcher. While his mechanics are not ideal for a relief pitcher—any kind of pitcher, really—shorter stints out of the pen would put less stress on Molina’s arm and allow him to sit closer to his peak velocity. While Molina is older now than this comp was then, Roberto Osuna’s 2015 promotion from a single-A starting pitcher who had undergone Tommy John surgery to a late-inning role in a major league bullpen is not out of the question for Molina. While that is obviously not what the Mets are planning to do with him at the moment, moving Molina to the bullpen sooner rather than later might make the most sense for all parties. With his stuff, Molina could legitimately pitch out of a major league bullpen before the 2017 season is finished.

Best known as the “non-elite prospect” the Mets acquired in the R.A. Dickey trade in 2012, the now-22-year-old Wuilmer Becerra (#10) has made the Baseball Prospectus Mets Top Ten two seasons running. Becerra, who underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in July, was protected from the Rule 5 Draft this winter despite not yet being ready to play the field to open the 2017 season. As the projected everyday designated hitter for the St. Lucie Mets for the first stretch of the season, Becerra will look to combine his above-average raw power with the plus hitting ability he has flashed in his recent seasons. While dealing with the shoulder injury during the first half of last season, Becerra hit only a single home run for St. Lucie in 2016, which isn’t going to work for a major league right fielder, his usual defensive home. However, if Becerra is able to put the whole package together, the tools are loud enough for him to project as an everyday right fielder in the majors. But even beyond the injury concerns, it’s a package with plenty of risk at the moment. A healthy and productive season that ends in the upper minors, highlighted by an increase in in-game power, could propel Becerra further up the Mets prospect lists and potentially onto global prospect lists next winter.

The Mets’ 2015 eighth-round pick out of Stetson University, Patrick Mazeika is a bat-first prospect whose ultimate future value is going to be determined by his defensive home. Mazeika, who has walked almost as many times as he’s struck out so far in his pro career—and gets an additional OBP boost from his Brandon Guyer-esque attraction to pitched baseballs—also offers a potential major-league-quality hit tool. If he is able to stick behind the plate, that is a good offensive starting point for a major league catcher. If he is forced to move off the position, which is a legitimate possibility given his current below-average glove and 6’3″ frame, he veers dangerously close to non-prospect status. His relative lack of power and line drive approach would not play well at first base—a position he has played some in his career—and the bat isn’t much more attractive in a corner outfield spot; he may not have the defensive chops for that anyway. His most realistic path to the major leagues is as a bat-first catcher whose high OBP makes up for his mediocre home run power and lackluster defense behind the plate.

2016 second-round pick Peter Alonso (#19), however, does not lack for power. Alonso has the best raw pop in the entire Mets minor league system. A right-handed hitting and fielding first baseman, he represents a bit of a rare breed as a prospect. Rarely are right-handed hitting first basemen considered to be prospects worthy of a high draft pick and the $909,200 signing bonus that Alonso received. Given that profile, his prospect status and baseball future relies solely on his bat and his ability to reach into his 70 raw power in games. After jumping over the South Atlantic League to open his first full professional season, Alonso will come to the Florida State League with the expectation that his bat will carry him into the upper minors and eventually to the major leagues. If he is able to adjust to better pitching than he saw in the SEC and shorten his swing from what he has shown to this past, he has a chance to develop into a middle-of-the-order bat sooner rather than later.

After selecting RHP Andrew Church (#21) with the 48th pick in the 2013 draft, the early returns for the Mets were less than stellar. At the end of the 2015 season, the now-21-year-old Church had yet to get out of short-season ball, and only struck out 75 batters in 132 professional innings.  2016 was a different story. Church emerged from extended spring training on May 24 to strike out nine batters in five innings for Columbia in his 2016 debut. For the season, he started 15 games, posting a 2.92 ERA and an improved, yet still pedestrian, 20.2% K-rate. Church, whose fastball touches as high as the mid 90s and slider flashes plus, will look to build on his 2016 campaign with an aggressive Double-A assignment. As Jarrett Seidler wrote recently, this season will be Church’s last before he is eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, so his performance—or lack thereof—in 2017 should give us a lot more clarity on his major league future.

Yet another 2016 draft pick making the jump from the Brooklyn Cyclones to the St. Lucie Mets in 2017 is fifth-round pick Colby Woodmansee. Woodmansee—who, given his tall frame, is likely to eventually move off of shortstop—skips over the South Atlantic League despite a mediocre 2016 season in his time at both the collegiate and professional levels. Following a strong sophomore year at Arizona State, Woodmansee was penciled in as a first or second round draft pick. However, a lack of improvement in his junior season allowed him to slip to the Mets in the fifth round, where they are hoping he can show again why he was considered by some to be a first round talent just a few months before the draft…St. Lucie’s lineup will also feature the return of 23-year-old John Mora. Mora, who got some burn in major league spring training, has limited power and average-at-best tools elsewhere. If he doesn’t end this season in Binghamton or Vegas, his chances of making the major leagues down the road can be considered minimal at best…the bullpen will feature Tyler Bashlor, who received a well-over-slot $550,000 signing bonus after being selected in the 11th round in 2013. Bashlor boasts a fastball that can touch 98 mph and a developing breaking ball. He has a chance to rise quickly to the majors if he is able to stay healthy and keep his walks under control.

Photo Credit: Reinhold Matay – USA Today Sports

Honestly, Dunn would’ve fit in last week’s list of players who narrowly missed the 101 just as much as this week’s list. And on pure stuff, Dunn certainly belongs, with a plus fastball and the makings of a solid slider and change. Mostly a reliever at BC until midway through his junior season, the Mets were very careful with Dunn’s post-draft usage …

In addition to Jarrett’s coverage of Dunn, he covers Adrian Morejon of the Padres. Plus, there’s our own Jeffrey Paternostro on Joey Wentz, Craig Goldstein on Migueangel Sierra and one of the Basabe brothers, Kate Morrison on Dustin May, and much more.

If you have a subscription to Baseball Prospectus, you can read the whole thing at the main site. If not, what are you waiting for? Go get a subscription and read great content like this on the regular.

In keeping with their current strategy of “have a superstar starting rotation,” (and shoring up their ability to trade for bats from an area of depth should the need arise) six of the Mets’ top 10 picks over the first nine rounds were pitchers.

Additionally, while most teams had begun drafting high school prospects as early as round three, the Mets’ top 10 consists entirely of college players. What this means is certainly up for interpretation, but to me, choosing players that are more stable in their physiological development and more seasoned on the field with experience in higher pressure environments can only be a positive—the Mets are more likely to get what they paid for, and the players will be strong enough to play professionally sooner. Which is good news for us fans, because these guys sound pretty freakin’ exciting:

Justin Dunn (19th overall pick)

Ranked the #22 prospect by Baseball America and piquing the interest of multiple teams when he transitioned from reliever to starter at Boston College this season, the Mets have emphasized their surprise that Dunn was still available by the time their turn came around. But the 20-year-old right-handed pitcher became the Mets first pick, prompting this adorable celebration by Dunn and his BC teammates, and marking the first time the Mets have used their number one pick on a pitcher since Matt Harvey in 2010.

Dunn, who is originally from Long Island, played shortstop at his private Connecticut high school before transitioning to pitching at Boston College. Upon joining the starting rotation this year, Dunn hit his stride, leading the Atlantic Coast Conference with a 1.49 ERA—and a 1.43 mark with 43 strikeouts in seven starts. His fastball, usually around 95 MPH, has been clocked at up to 99 MPH, and his breaking balls are in keeping with major league averages.

As an African-American, Dunn represents an increasingly rare demographic in professional baseball: currently only 14 of 449 major league pitchers are African-American, and only 8.27 percent of all major league players overall, a problem about which the Mets’ Curtis Granderson has spoken out and attempted to combat with his Grand Kids Foundation. The MLB at large has also been working to bring African-American kids back to the diamond with a variety of baseball-centric programs especially for inner-city youth, and the last five years of the draft have shown an uptick in black players, many of whom were participants the MLB’s programs.

Anthony Kay (31st overall pick)

The Mets used their other first-round pick for another pitcher from Long Island—this time a 21-year-old lefty from the University of Connecticut.

At five-foot-11, Kay is among the shorter pitching prospects the Mets have drafted, but scouting director Tommy Tanous seemed confident in Kay’s natural abilities, noting that Kay was “advanced” even as a high school player, “so it’s not like [he] had a long way to go.”

Indeed, the Mets originally drafted Kay in 2013 in the 29th round, but he decided to go to college. Given his jump to the first round of this year’s draft, it looks like the education paid off. At Connecticut he improved his velocity and changeup, with his fastball currently peaking at around 95 MPH. This season he struck out 111 batters and walked 35, and won the American Athletic League’s Pitcher of the Year award.

Kay attended the same Long Island high school as Steven Matz, and though Matz was four years his senior, the two said they were friendly with one another, both returning to visit their school during the winter and keeping in touch with their baseball coach.

Peter Alonso (64th overall pick)

The Mets started round two with power-hitting hopeful Pete Alonso, a first baseman at the University of Florida. Alonso leads his team this year with 12 home runs in 53 games; he’s also hit 55 RBIs with a season average of .368.

While some scouting reports question his versatility in the field, for his part, Alonso, who had played third base in high school before switching to first, said he learned the new position via repetition, “improving [his] footwork and changing [his] body in the weight room,” and is confident in his ability to switch back to third or play the outfield should the team need it.

But the reports also commend Alonso for his raw hitting power, which he showed off in full days before the draft. In May Alonso was hit by a pitch that broke his hand, but he returned with a vengeance, going 8-for-14 in the NCAA Regional conference, with three home runs and eight RBI.

Blake Tiberi (100th overall pick)

Tiberi has experience playing for a strong team. Hailing from the University of Louisville, considered the number two team in the NCAA, the switch-hitting third baseman hit .318/.371/.518 in his two years with the Cardinals, batting .340 with 51 RBI this year.

Tiberi was also a Cape Cod Summer League All-Star in 2015, where he ranked eighth in the league; he batted .315 and his team played the league championship series.

Michael Paez (130th overall pick)

The 21-year-old shortstop often goes unnoticed because of his size, but this year after improving his swing and hitting 15 home runs—making him second among NCAA shortstops—he’s finally getting the credit he deserves.

The MLB has him at five-foot-eight, but Paez called himself five-foot-seven in an interview with Miami Herald. Both Paez and the Mets’ Tanous point to Paez’s height as the reason why he’s been overlooked until now, but undervalued is probably good for the Mets’ checkbook, and there’s no denying Paez has fielding skills and swinging power despite his size, and good speed in part because of it. He currently leads the Big South Conference with 52 runs scored.

The Dean’s List student also clinched Coastal Carolina’s first College World Series appearance Monday night when, game tied in the bottom of the ninth and a man on second, Paez hit a double and sent the winning run home.

Colby Woodmansee (160th overall pick)

And the winner of the best last name of the bunch undoubtedly goes to this guy. Also a 21-year-old shortstop, albeit considerably taller at six-foot-three, Woodmansee has hit .280/.328/.418 during his time at Arizona State.

An Arizona native, Woodmansee grew up aspiring to ASU’s strong baseball program, and proved himself a solid, reliable player in that competitive atmosphere: Woodmansee has 91 hits with 55 RBI, seven home runs, and 36 runs scored over 86 games, having reached base in 61 of his past 72 games.

Christopher Viall (190th overall pick)

That the 20-year-old RHP says his favorite pitcher is Noah Syndergaard is predictable given the lightning Syndergaard’s thrown this season; what’s more unusual is that Viall, at six-foot-nine, has two inches on Thor.

Going 4-7 with a 4.80 ERA in his time at Stanford, Viall has (metaphorical) room to grow, but Mets scout Tyler Holmes said he was impressed by Viall’s natural coordination and skillset—he throws a fastball that routinely clocks in at 97 MPH and a 90 MPH changeup, and has the ability to repeat his delivery; Holmes calls Viall a “high-risk, high-reward pick,” so it’ll certainly be interesting to see if Viall can harness the power of his enormous arm.

Fun fact: Apparently a two-time Bachelorette contestant (and twice the runner-up, that’s gotta hurt) shares the last name. Happy Googling!

Austin McGeorge (220th overall pick)

A California native, the 21-year-old reliever has an ERA of 1.63 over his career at Long Beach State University. He’s pitched 83 innings in 63 games over three years at the school, going 4-2 with six saves.

In 2015 he made 31 appearances out of the bullpen, a team high; this year he led the Big West Conference with 33. The 2016 season was his best yet, with an ERA of 1.05 over 53 innings, keeping opposing batters at an average of .197.

Placido Torres (250th overall)

Born in the Dominican Republic and raised in New Jersey, the 23-year-old lefty led the NCAA Division II with a 0.71 ERA for Tusculum College (Tennessee). In 2016 he went 11-0 in 14 starts, and leads college baseball across all levels with 162 strikeouts.

Alongside Kay at 5’11″, Torres doesn’t quite fit the cannon-esque profile of the Mets current pitching staff, but that didn’t stop him from throwing seven complete games and four shutouts (four!) this season. I can’t help but feel a bit aflutter about this guy from the sheer numbers—it will be exciting to see what he can do when faced with some stronger bats.

Colin Holderman (280th overall)

The Mets rounded out their top 10 picks with one final pitcher, hailing from Heartland Community College in Bloomington, Illinois. At six-foot-six, Holderman sees eye-to-eye with Syndergaard, and went 8-1 with two shutouts for the Heartland Hawks this season, posting a 1.57 ERA with 92 strikeouts.

He also hit an impressive .489/.565/.831 with 13 home runs this season, giving him the third-best average in the NJCAA.

Photo Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

There’s a certain element of fantasy that fans enjoy about following prospects and dreaming about what he can turn into, if everything works out and draft night is the height of this dream. Scouts, executives and analysts facilitate their projections by comparing (comping) young players to more established big leaguers. Today’s staff post will pick up on that tendency and explore our favorite irrational comps for the Mets 2016 draft class so far.  — Toby Hyde (@tobyhyde)

Justin Dunn = Brandon Finnegan

As we discussed with Alex Nelson on this week’s For All You Kids Out There podcast, a Brandon Finnegan comp isn’t facially irrational for 19th-overall pick Justin Dunn. Sure, it looks a little weird comping a lefty to a righty, but they’re both college pitchers drafted in the late-teens with a similar stuff profile and similar questions about size and durability. Finnegan is, two years out from being drafted, in the midst of establishing himself as a mid-rotation starter in Cincinnati, and that’s not an unreasonable median sort of outcome for Dunn.

Where the irrational part comes in is that Finnegan, though drafted and projected over the longer haul as a starter, was temporarily converted to the bullpen in Double-A just a month into his pro career. A month later he was a September callup into Kansas City’s bullpen. A month after that he was one of the key relievers on a playoff team. A month after that he was pitching in the World Series. If you squint your eyes enough, you could see Justin Dunn—Boston College’s closer pumping gas in the high-90s as recently as this spring—repeating Finnegan’s path and ending up as one of the four or five best relief options available to the Mets by the time September rolls around. And, hey, if you want to be irrational about something, why not be irrational about making another World Series run? Those same Royals got there again. — Jarrett Seidler (@jaseidler)

Anthony Kay = Steven Matz

Comparing Anthony Kay–the Mets’ compensation round pick and drafted 31st overall–to Steven Matz seems all too rational. First, Kay, like Matz, is from Long Island. Their New York roots are enough to lump them together. Both are left-handed starters. Lefty pitchers require comparisons to other lefty pitchers, especially within the same organization. While the Mets drafted Kay out of the University of Connecticut, whereas they drafted Matz out of high school; however, the Mets also drafted Kay out of high school. They selected him in the 29th round of the 2013 draft, but Kay opted to attend college. Not only that, but Kay and Matz were drafted out of the same high school, Ward Melville High. Way back in October, the Hartford Courant reported that Kay “looks up to” Matz and can “always go to him for advice.” Kay also boasts a fastball and a changeup that “flash plus,” according to Christopher Crawford.

The irrationality appears only when we start envisioning Kay turning into Matz. As with just about every starting pitcher selected, there’s a very real chance Kay ends up in the bullpen. But there’s still enough to hold on to. — Eric Garcia-McKinley (@garcia_mckinley)

Peter Alonso = Wil Myers

As baseball fans, we’re just a collection of poorly put-together hopes and dreams, looking for the next thing to lift us up. So know that when I comp second-round pick Peter Alonso to Will Myers, that’s all this is–hopes and dreams and precious little fact. Peter Alonso is a college bat–a first baseman–which makes him very different than Myers at the time the Padres’ first baseman was drafted. Myers was a prep catcher-turned-outfielder where Alonso is coming off a run with one of the top college teams in Division I. Myers was all power and projection, where Alonso is a bit more well-rounded … with a lower ceiling.

No, the irrational comp I want to make isn’t based on the past but the future. And it’s based on need. Alonso is a right-handed bat with a little bit of power, and in the best possible world he turns into something like Myers in the big leagues. Right-handed power is great. First basemen who can hit are great. With Lucas Duda injured and nearing the end of his team-controlled time in Queens, and former first-rounder Dominic Smith doesn’t look like the solution long-term. With the potential to be the total package–approach, hit tool, and power–in the best possible timeline, Alonso has several productive years as part of an effective Mets lineup. Or, if your leanings are less, pie-in-the-sky, perhaps the Mets can deal him for a starting pitcher and win the World Series shortly after. — Bryan Grosnick (@bgrosnick)

Blake Tiberi = George Brett

Jim Callis called Blake Tiberi, the Mets’ third-round pick out of Louisville, “one of the best contact hitters in college baseball.”  Tiberi is listed at six feet and 200 lbs. Mets Scouting Director Tommy Tanous said that Tiberi was “probably the most consistent hitter” on the Louisville team and “the fact that he was a left-handed hitter with some power really was attractive to us.” Louisville, which finished 50-14, earned the right to host a Super Regional, but was eliminated by UC Santa Barbara on this walkoff grand slam because sports are awesome sometimes.

The criteria: we’re looking for contact-oriented, left-handed-hitting third basemen under six feet to compare Tiberi against. The pick: George Brett. The man walked 1096 times and struck out just 908 times in 21 big league seasons. Irrational? Yup. By Tiberi’s age, Brett was a big leaguer on his way to becoming an all-time great. In his age-21 season, Tiberi will likely wear 10 different silly Brooklyn Cyclones uniforms. Oh, and Tiberi and Brett both have a five-letter name that starts with the letter B and another six-letter name. Thats good enough for a draft-day comp. — Toby Hyde (@tobyhyde)

Colby Woodmansee = Michael Young

In the fifth round, the Mets selected Arizona State shortstop Colby Woodmansee. The tall, lean Woodmansee put up fine numbers in the Pac-12, although there are questions about whether he’ll have the range for shortstop. The patron saints of tall shortstops are Cal Ripken and Derek Jeter. We’ll bypass those comps and instead suggest that Woodmansee will grow up to resemble another infielder picked in the fifth round of the draft out of a west coast college, UC Santa Barbara product and six-time All-Star Michael Young.

Young’s offensive production was driven by his batting average and contact ability, but he hit enough homers as a middle infielder to be extremely valuable. He overcame early concerns about his range similar to those currently expressed about Woodmansee. In his best years, Young was a shortstop, but by his early 30s, the Rangers had moved him to third base in an All-Star season. — Toby Hyde (@tobyhyde)

Christopher Viall = Eric Hillman

When I saw that the Mets had drafted Viall, a right-handed reliever out of Stanford, in the sixth round, my immediate thought was of Eric Hillman. Perhaps it was simply because both men look preternaturally tall on the mound and the sports-centric mind has a way of remembering giants. Viall, who stands six-foot-nine and is wrapping up his junior year, has an easy-enough delivery, can pop 93 to 95 with his four-seamer and lay in his curve in the high 70s. As a sixth-rounder, the odds will be stacked against him from the start, but teams love to give players with natural, unteachable advantages (see: height, absurd) more of a chance than others. That’s what happened with Hillman, who stood six-foot-ten when he was a starter in Flushing for the ’93 season.

Here’s a truth about Hillman: He threw 145 innings in his only full-time season and kept his ERA below 4.00. That has only happened 132 times in Mets history; Hillman’s season is tied for the lowest strikeouts (60) in all those instances. (The man he tied? Don Cardwell, No. 4 starter on your ’69 Miracle Mets.) Point is, there are a lot of familiar names on this list, and yes, Eric Hillman himself is far from a sexy comp, but if Viall ever makes it onto that list as well, no one would be displeased. — Erik Malinowski (@erikmal)

Placido Torres = Placido Polanco