And, in a way, it was a completely reasonable thing to write at the time. The Mets were coming off back-to-back playoff appearances for the first time since the turn of the century. Just a few months prior, they signed Yoenis Cespedes to a four-year, $110 million contract. The starting rotation, when healthy, could have been one of the best baseball had seen in years. Expectations were high and, compared to previous iterations of the team, so was the payroll.

In typical Mets fashion, that optimism has been rewarded with a mess of a season, from the chronic injuries to players failing to show up to games to trade requests. Underperformance, especially from the once-vaunted pitching staff, has been ubiquitous, leaving the formerly “contending” Mets competing with the Padres for the fourth-worst record in the NL.

With the Mets being a New York City team, you’d think such a flop would be constant backpage fodder and the source of endless material for the city’s radio stations. You’d also think such losing from a team many expected to be a serious playoff threat would lead to a famed closed-door team meeting or two, and possibly pissed-off postgame press conferences from the manager or team leaders.

Well, you’d be fairly wrong. Outside of the canned comments from Sandy Alderson and Terry Collins about how much injuries have affected the on-field product — or even jokes from Alderson about Matt Harvey’s nightlife — there has been nothing resembling dissent or discord.

In one way, that could be considered a good thing. An assured sign of a strong, tight-knit clubhouse is that everything gets handled in-house. Teammates that have each other’s back won’t go right to the press to leak details about incidents brought on by the frustration that usually accompanies such poor play.

On the other hand, though, it reeks of apathy. Even a cursory examination of the current Mets — an issue exacerbated by the departure of Jay Bruce, one of the few players to seem genuinely pissed off during the weekly Sunday blowout loss — would lead the common fan to notice as astounding lack of emotion. It might just be my own negativity, but such detachment doesn’t often result when a team fails to reach its level.

That indifference has spread throughout the organization, and seemingly into the media as well. The losing in 2017, be it because of how quickly it began in the season or because the Mets have never been particularly close to turning it around, has almost started to feel like a stated fact. The only harsh back pages relating to the Mets have regarded non-baseball matters, be it Harvey’s relationship struggles or #DildoGate.

In recent seasons, the Mets getting crushed at home by teams led by the likes of Martin Perez or Nick Pivetta would elicit brutal columns and articles taking the team to task for such bad efforts. Those performances would certainly be capped by a red-faced Collins addressing the media with an almost burning rage, partially directed at his own players and partially at the media members for stoking his fire with drops of gasoline.

This is from 2011, this is from 2016. Not much difference between the two except for that the 2011 team was going nowhere and the 2016 team was headed to the playoffs, albeit for a short amount of time. The biggest post-loss reaction from Terry this season has arguably been after the famed Sunday Massacre when the Nationals beat the Mets 23-5 and Noah Syndergaard got hurt.

In 2017, however, whether it’s due to Terry knowing he won’t be back in 2018 or a simple resignation to his team’s fate, there has been no such public displays regardless of how bad the on-field product has been.

Same goes for the financial state of the Mets, which has been one of the biggest issues the team has faced this decade. When teams like the Rays and Indians are eating the entirety of the contracts owed to the players dealt to them by the Mets in order to give up less substantial prospect packages, there’s probably something the ownership group isn’t relaying to fans and the media.

If the Mets were as “all-in” on improving the team as much as possible in the short-run as Puma (and others) reported this spring and in the past few springs, wouldn’t they be willing to absorb some money on the Duda, Bruce and Reed deals to garner higher-caliber and more pro-ready returns? One would think so, but the proof doesn’t seem to be in the pudding.

Free cash certainly is not an issue for the Wilpon family, as Sterling Equities — the Wilpon-owned parent company of the Mets — recently bought an esports franchise for a fee that ESPN has reported as being at least $20 million. The real question is if some of that cash on hand is destined to be re-invested in the Mets, who have a boatload of money coming off the books this offseason (an amount that will be healthily boosted by the insurance money to be collected on David Wright’s contract).

For years, ownership has done yeoman’s work in trying to convince everyone that the team’s payroll and other budgetary concerns will not affect the front office’s pursuit of maximizing organizational talent.

But, with the Mets possessing baseball’s 13th-highest payroll (per Spotrac, before the recent trades are all factored in), behind such big-market powers like the Baltimore Orioles and Seattle Mariners, that “promise” feels like just that, a bunch of words with no legitimate substance behind it. Remind you of anything?

Photo credit: Charles LeClaire – USA Today Sports

After moving Duda, the club is still trying to trade veterans Addison Reed, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson, and Neil Walker—all of whom can be free agents after this season—by the July 31 trade deadline.

When the Mets announced on Friday night that they had acquired Miami Marlins closer AJ Ramos in exchange for prospects Merandy Gonzalez and Ricardo Cespedes, it came as a surprise; at least, at first.

Why would a team that’s in the middle of selling, make a move to “buy” a closer from another team? Simple: This is a reload, not a rebuild.

Despite their difficult season, the Mets expect to contend in 2018 and Ramos, unlike Reed, is under team control next year. With the acquisitions of Ramos and Smith—who has a 1.60 ERA in the minor leagues—New York is already working on shoring up their bullpen for next year’s expected run.

While Ramos is having a down year by his standards—his 3.63 ERA is his highest in five years—he should still be an excellent addition to this Mets bullpen over the next year and a half. Since his debut in 2012, Ramos has a 2.78 ERA, 92 saves, and is striking out 10.4 batters per 9 innings.

Sandy Alderson has made a lot of moves in his time as Mets general manager, both buying and selling, but this may very well be his savviest transaction yet.

Not only does the acquisition of Ramos help the bullpen over the next year and a half, but this move also means the Mets won’t have to spend big money on a set-up man this offseason and it takes a top bullpen arm off of the trade market, which can only increase Addison Reed’s trade value.

Since being acquired by the Mets in 2015, Reed has been one of the best relievers in all of baseball as the right-hander has a 2.09 ERA, 1.014 WHIP and 21 saves in 145 appearances with the club. He was already expected to warrant a solid return in a trade, and with the Mets removing Ramos as an option for other teams, it’s increasingly possible that they may be able to get an even better return.

While this has been a lost season for this organization, the Mets have already begun their reload for a run in 2018. With the team in sell mode, this was unexpected and a bit out-of-the-box… but that’s what makes it such a smart and creative move by Sandy Alderson. We’ll find out soon enough what else he has up his sleeve.

Photo credit: Jasen Vinlove – USA Today Sports

The Mets lost both games of a rain-shortened set against division-leading Washington earlier this week. St. Louis, four back in the loss column behind first-place Milwaukee in a surprisingly underperforming NL Central, has managed to stay in the mix despite playing sub-.500 ball since June 2.

With just over three weeks until the non-waiver trade deadline and facing daunting deficits in their own playoff races, all eyes will be on New York GM Sandy Alderson and the front office as they attempt to salvage what’s left of a lost season by selling off some of their assets.

One potential transaction that fans seem to be clamoring for would be a reunion with cult hero and clubhouse favorite Bartolo Colon, released by Atlanta on Thursday after enduring the worst stretch of his career (8.14 ERA, .330 TAv, -1.4 WARP over 13 starts). According to multiple reports, the Mets have already reached out to the 44-year-old’s representatives to discuss the possibility of bringing Colon back to Queens where he was a steadying presence in the rotation over the past three seasons.

As part of All-Star week, the SiriusXM Futures Game will be played in Miami on Sunday afternoon and will feature some of baseball’s top up-and-coming prospects. Representing the Mets will be catcher Tomas Nido and highly touted shortstop Amed Rosario, who will both play for the World Team. Nido was named as a roster replacement for recently promoted Cubs rookie Victor Caratini, while Rosario (.320 AVG, 7 HR, 52 RBI, 14 SB in in 82 games for Triple-A Las Vegas) joins a group of well-known infielders including Yoan Moncada and Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.

Outfielder Michael Conforto (.953 OPS in 69 games) is expected to be the Mets’ lone representative in the main event on Tuesday. Cardinals right-hander Carlos Martinez and catcher Yadier Molina will also suit up for the National League at Marlins Park. It will be the 25-year-old ace’s second All-Star appearance, and the eighth time the veteran backstop has been named to the team.

When and Where

Game 1: Friday @ 8:15 p.m. EST (TV: SNY; RADIO: 710 WOR, ESPN Deportes)

Game 2: Saturday @ 4:10 p.m. EST (TV: SNY; RADIO: 710 WOR, ESPN Deportes)

Game 3: Sunday @ 2:15 p.m. EST (TV: SNY; RADIO: 710 WOR, ESPN Deportes)

Baseball Weather

Friday: Clear with a low of 69F and winds between 10-15 mph.
Saturday: Partly cloudy with a high of 91F and winds between 5-10 mph. 20% chance of a stray shower or thunderstorm.
Sunday: Partly cloudy with a high of 94F and winds between 5-10 mph.

Probable Pitching Matchups

Friday: RHP Jacob deGrom (8-3, 3.55 ERA, 2.66 DRA, .237 TAv, 3.4 WARP) vs. RHP Carlos Martinez (6-7, 3.15 ERA, 2.60 DRA, .227 TAv, 3.7 WARP)

In what figures to be the best matchup of the series, at least on paper, two of the best arms in the game go head-to-head in the opener.

On the visiting side, deGrom will try to win his fifth straight. The bushy-haired ace has been absolutely dominating over the four-game stretch, allowing just three earned runs in 32 innings pitched (0.84 ERA) while striking out 31.

Martinez has lost his last two decisions, most recently on Sunday at home against the Nationals where he was charged with five runs in five innings.

Saturday: TBD vs. RHP Adam Wainwright (9-5, 5.48 ERA, 5.97 DRA, .281 TAv, -0.4 WARP)

A three-time All-Star with two 20-win seasons on his resume, Wainwright will wrap up what is arguably the most inconsistent first half of his career. He earned the win over Miami on Monday in spite of a poor performance, allowing six runs on eight hits in five innings, and will be aiming to win three in a row.

Sunday: TBD vs. RHP Lance Lynn (6-6, 3.87 ERA, 5.15 DRA, .258 TAv, 0.5 WARP)

The 30-year-old Lynn is 1-3 with a 7.89 ERA over his last four outings, surrendering eight homers during that stretch.

Who’s Hot?

Mets IF/OF T.J. Rivera (.429 AVG, 1.264 OPS with 2 home runs in his last 6 games)

Mets SS Jose Reyes (5-for-15, 1 HR in July)

Cardinals OF Tommy Pham (.353 AVG (6-for-17) with 5 RBIs since Monday)

Who’s Not?

Mets RF Jay Bruce (1 for his last 19 with 6 strikeouts)

Cardinals C Yadier Molina (1-for-11 since July 4)

When We Last Met

The Mets took two of three in St. Louis in late August, with rookies Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo earning the victories. Martinez held New York to one run over eight strong frames in the middle game, while deGrom was charged with five runs on twelve hits in one of his worst starts of the season.

It’s Literally a 10-Day DL

Mets: LF Yoenis Cespedes (right hamstring cramp) is expected to be in the lineup on Friday night. Curtis Granderson (sore hip) should also be available for this series. Conforto (bruised left hand) began a rehab assignment with high-A St. Lucie on Thursday, and could be activated from the disabled list as soon as Saturday. The first-time All-Star played all nine innings in centerfield, going 3-for-4 with a double at the plate. LHP Josh Smoker (left shoulder strain) pitched a scoreless frame in that game, his first action since being placed on the 10-day DL on June 14.

Cardinals: LHP Zach Duke (ligament surgery in left elbow) joined Triple-A Memphis in Nashville on Thursday, the veteran’s third club since beginning a rehab assignment last Friday. Duke may be activated by the end of the month if all goes well. CF Dexter Fowler (right heel spur) ran the bases with cleats on Thursday for the first time since being injured and could return this weekend, although at this point the team may take a cautious approach and wait until after the break to activate their speedy leadoff hitter. 2B Kolten Wong (right triceps strain) is on assignment with Double-A Springfield, and has started their past two games.

Notable Quotables

“If you’re gonna pitch it, you’ve got to catch it. Some of the best pitching in baseball has some of the best defense in baseball. Certainly, we have a system that we’ve put together where we try to put guys in the right spots depending on who’s pitching and who’s up and it seems like we’re 6-10 inches away from being in the right place.” – Mets manager Terry Collins on the team’s recent defensive woes

“It happens quickly. You win five out of six and the team you’re chasing goes through a little bit of a tailspin and all of a sudden that math changes quickly, which is why this is something we keep re-evaluating every day… We could certainly be in a better position than we are right now, but we’re not in a position where we’re dead. We’re lucky to be in a division where being four games under .500 isn’t a death knell. We still have a shot. We have to start playing to our potential if we’re going to make this happen.” – Cardinals general manager Michael Girsch, promoted to the position a week ago, on his club’s stance leading up to the trade deadline

Photo credit: Jeff Curry – USA Today Sports

In one short month, the Mets have gone from Sandy Alderson proclaiming “A lot of the story [is] to be written,” to a resigned general manager sighing, “I think we have to be realistic about where we are” and “I don’t want to whitewash this. We haven’t played very well.” Most of that underperformance can be attributed to an injury epidemic that’s infiltrated every corner of the roster. The rest is that Jose Reyes and Rafael Montero suck. Whatever the cause, the 2017 Mets have played half their schedule, and they’re 38-43, nearly as far out of first place as they are close to the NL East basement. Worse, they’re just as far away from the second wild-card spot.

The competitive part of the Mets’ season has ended.

Yet the Mets’ competitive window remains open. The 2018 rotation will feature Flushing’s favorite pitcher, When Healthy. Other guys like Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz, Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman might also make some appearances.

With Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto as offensive building blocks, the top-level talent is there for a 2018 return to prominence. That’s why the next two months may be Alderson’s most important since he became @MetsGM after the 2010 season.

The catchphrase is “retool, not rebuild.” If the Mets trade their veterans on expiring or short-term contracts for pieces that will slot into next season’s lineup or bullpen, the 2018 story could look a lot different than this year’s. Here, then, is the Mets’ inventory for a potential #FireSale that looks more realistic by the day. — Scott D. Simon (@scottdsimon)

Addison Reed

Perhaps the most valuable piece that the Mets have that they’d actually move at the deadline, Reed is a known late-inning commodity that every team would like. Finding the right fit and right return could be challenging, but I agree with Jeff and Jarrett that a prospect floating around the edges of the BP Top 100 list sounds about right. So with the surprising Milwaukee Brewers needing more ‘pen arms to support a questionable pitching staff, I think they could be a nice fit, and perhaps High-A outfield prospect Trent Clark could be a return. Clark has question marks about future power production, but can likely hit for average and has speed. With the Brew Crew already possessing lots of young outfield talent, they could afford to part with him to snag an establish relief ace. — Bryan Grosnick (@bgrosnick)

Lucas Duda

Lucas Duda is a pending free agent with a pulse, so the Mets will be taking calls on him. Since becoming the full-time first baseman in 2014, Duda’s 129 wRC+ ranks 25th in baseball (min. 1000 PAs) and he’s on track for the best season of his career. With Dominic Smith waiting in the wings, it’s unlikely the Mets would re-sign Duda, so he’ll be an attractive piece to any team looking for lefty power at first base or DH.

Jerry Blevins

You’ve read above why Reed should be on the move. Much of the same logic applies to dealing Jerry Blevins. Blevins has been very, very good: Here is a list of the eight best left-handed relievers (by FIP) who have thrown at least 60 innings since the start of 2016:

Chapman and Miller are signed to eight-figure contracts. Britton received downballot MVP consideration last year, and will almost certainly sign for close to Chapman’s $86 million over five years when he hits free agency after the season. Then you have Blevins making $5.5 million this year with a 2018 club option for $7 million. That’s a bargain — and it justifies the Mets seeking more than just a fifth outfielder or C-minus prospect in return.

Maybe the Mets could flip Blevins and Reed to the Diamondbacks for Ketel Marte. Arizona already has four infielders — Chris Owings, Jake Lamb, Brandon Drury, and Nick Ahmed — under team control for next season and beyond, so it’s worth flipping their backup infielder for a huge bullpen upgrade. For the Mets, Marte, who’s hit .338/.391/.514 in Reno this year, with a 34:25 strikeout-to-walk ratio, could start at second base when Neil Walker is traded or departs as a free agent, or he could back up Amed Rosario at short. — Scott D. Simon (@scottdsimon)

Rene Rivera

I know, I know. 33 year old backup backups with a career .268 on base percentage are usually why you trade for an upgrade.

Alexa isn't doing shit for your catcher situation pic.twitter.com/Ik6feSJNPt

— Jeff Sullivan (@based_ball) June 29, 2017

But Rivera was a 1.5 win player as a backup last year. He’s on pace to duplicate that performance this year. Now let’s take a look at the eight teams most likely to make the playoffs. The Nationals have two below replacement catchers. Arizona regularly uses Jeff Mathis, a much worse version of Rivera. Colorado is using a converted second baseman who ranks poorly behind the plate. Cleveland and Boston are each getting 0.8 wins combined from all their catchers – the same as Rivera has given the Mets as a backup. Let the bidding war begin! After all, what would symbolize the absurdity of 2017 more than good teams outbidding each other for the services of a 33-year-old backup? — Noah Grand (@noahgrand)

Jay Bruce

The Mets’ crowded outfield has been a problem since last offseason, when they picked up the option on Jay Bruce’s contract, then signed Yoenis Cespedes. In an otherwise-lost season, the Bruce signing has paid dividends: he’s second on the team in bWARP at 1.9. But with his contact expiring at the end of the season, the time to trade Bruce is now.

The Mets’ could try to convince the Yankees to use Bruce as a first baseman and DH in addition to right fielder. While Bruce has played limited innings at first base for the Mets this year, the Yankees need to replace the struggling Chris Carter. He could also spell Aaron Judge and Clint Frazier in the outfield. Although Bruce doesn’t have veto rights, he should welcome the opportunity to hit tons of homers over the right field wall and a chance at the playoffs.

If a Bruce-to-the-Bronx deal happens, the Mets should not expect to receive any of the Yankees’ top prospects. Instead, the Mets can aim for a pitcher such as Dillon Tate, who the Yankees received in 2016 for Carlos Beltran, or an outfielder such as Billy McKinney, who has struggled recently but could be given more of a chance to play in the Mets’ system. The Mets will get nothing for Bruce once the offseason arrives, so they might as well try to get whatever they can right now. — Seth Rubin (@sethrubin)

Neil Walker

Despite the hamstring injury that has sidelined him for the past few weeks, Walker is having another great year and, like a bunch of other Mets, is set to be a free agent this offseason.

With a .270/.352/.468 slash and nine home runs in just over 200 at-bats, the 31-year-old can definitely bring something to a contender needing a second baseman. The Rockies, whose D.J. LeMahieu is dealing with a groin issue, could be a trade partner should LeMahieu require a DL stint.

The defensive numbers aren’t great for Walker — like for the rest of the Mets’ infield — but his bat would fit into any lineup, as would his reputation as a good teammate. A possible turnoff to a deal is that the acquiring team would need to pick up a prorated portion of his $17.2 million qualifying salary, however. For a contender with a hole at second base, that could be a deal worth making. — Joshua Burton (@Josh_Burton1)

Jacob deGrom

Hear me out for just a second. I know deGrom has been pretty much the only thing the Mets have going for them these days, but there’s an argument to be made that his trade value has never been higher. Since his 8-run blowup in Texas, he’s won each of his last 4 starts with a 0.84 ERA over that span.

The Astros are clearly in the market for an ace, and that need might have just gotten a bit stronger with David Paulino being suspended 80 games for using PEDs. They have a slew of guys working their way back from injury (Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton, Collin McHugh), but could use an ace like deGrom to help take them deep into the postseason.

The Mets would be wise to take advantage of a team in dire need of pitching, while selling high on their own guy. Here’s what the deal could look like:

Astros receive: Jacob DeGrom, Dominic Smith

Mets receive: Alex Bregman, Francis Martes, Daz Cameron

— Adam Kaufman (@adamkaufman315)

Asdrubal Cabrera

Putting aside his reported (and then retracted) trade request, it makes sense for the Mets to move on from Asdrubal Cabrera with Amed Rosario waiting in the wings. Cabrera isn’t the smooth defender he once was, but a recent move to second base could give the twilight years of his career a second life.

The Mets could match up for a Cabrera trade with the Angels, who currently find themselves 1.5 games out of the Wild Card despite receiving little to no production at second base. With a team option for 2018 on the table, Cabrera could fetch a middle-tier prospect from the Angels like OF Trey Montgomery, or RHPs Abel De Los Santos and Elvin Rodriguez. — Justin Birnbuam (@birny53)

Fernando Salas

Salas is a free agent after the season, so any future value derived from the righty will likely come through trade. Unfortunately for the Mets, he has struggled this season. The walks have been an issue, but some of his peripherals suggest he has pitched better than his ERA. If a team thinks they can reign in his control, they may look to acquire him at a reduced cost. Most contenders will look to reinforce their bullpens before the deadline, but those that have especially struggled in the pen are the Nationals, Twins, and Rangers. Mets fans should not expect any kind of impact talent in a trade, but perhaps Salas could be packaged with one of their more attractive pieces to sweeten the return. — Zane Moran

Curtis Granderson

Traded, along with $3 million, to the Chicago Cubs for RHP Thomas Hatch and RHP Dakota Mekkes

I would like to start off with a disclaimer here that I am not entirely sure the Mets trade Curtis Granderson. I think he is the sort of veteran that the Mets would like to keep around as they sell off other pieces at the deadline and potentially re-sign in the offseason. However, I’m going to operate here under the assumption that the Mets trade him to a contender and give him a chance to contribute to a playoff contender in his age 36 season. Unlike every other rental that could be traded at the deadline, I believe Granderson, and only Granderson, stands a decent chance of re-signing with the Mets this winter even if he spends the last few months of the 2017 season with a different club. With that in mind, I believe one of the strongest fits for Curtis might be the defending World Champion Chicago Cubs.

With the demotion of Kyle Schwarber, struggles of Jason Heyward, and overall underperformance of the Cubs, Chicago could be in the market for a veteran corner outfield bat, specifically a rental. Granderson, a free agent this coming winter, would be an ideal fit for the Cubs and could hit at the top of their order as they look to recover from a dismal first half.

In Thomas Hatch, the Mets would be acquired a polished starting pitching prospect who the Cubs selected in the third round out of Oklahoma State in 2016. The 6’1″ righty boasts a low-mid 90s two seamer and a potential plus slider. While his upside is not too dreamy, he has a decent chance to become a major league starting pitcher and perhaps a middle of the rotation starter if it all works out. Dakota Mekkes, the second piece in the deal, is a reliever who has an ERA south of 1 in his first full professional season. The 2016 10th round pick has been able to achieve this despite a largely mediocre arsenal and lackluster control. His fastball averages out at around 91 mph and is complemented by a high 70s curveball with below average spin and a low 80s changeup with decent sink. However, his 6’7″ frame and deceptive delivery give him a chance to continue to manage his way to success at higher levels of the minors. — Skyler Kanfer (@skylerkanfer)

Photo Credit: Brad Penner – USA Today Sports

Something like that actually happened in 1967, when the Los Angeles Dodgers’ general manager, Buzzie Bavasi, penned a four-part series in Sports Illustrated. The best of those pieces provided a behind-the-scenes look at the 1966 spring training double-holdout of Don Drysdale and Sandy Koufax. This was no Operation Shutdown.

In 1966, Curt Flood was three years from challenging baseball’s infamous reserve clause. Free agency as we know it was a decade away, so established veterans like Koufax and Drysdale possessed little leverage. It mattered not at all that Koufax had led the league in ERA–averaging 2.02!–for the preceding four years, nor that Drysdale had led the league in games started–averaging 41!–in four consecutive seasons. They could choose to sign the contract the Dodgers stuck in front of them, or they could stay home. That year, Koufax and Drysdale threatened to stay home.

From today’s perspective, Bavasi’s article is incredible: “[N]obody on the ball club, including me and [field manager] Walter Alston, was ever going to get more than a one-year contract.” Bavasi had budgeted a mere $15,000 raise for Koufax and $10,000 raise for Drysdale. That’s what he expected the pitchers to accept. But when half the Dodgers’ starting rotation–the future Hall of Famer half–combined forces to negotiate, they ended up with “the biggest raises in baseball history.” You might call the two players’ combined force a union.

Fifty years after the great double holdout of 1966, the Major League Baseball Players’ Association is widely recognized as the most powerful union in sports. The top stars in baseball receive more than their counterparts in basketball, football or hockey. Long-term contracts are guaranteed. The MLBPA believes it has so accomplished its goals that it now focuses its collective-bargaining efforts on ensuring that spring training buses allocate two seats for each player and that every clubhouse has its own chef.

Yet, a vestige of the reserve clause remains. Clubs can unilaterally renew the contracts of players with fewer than three years of service time. The poster boy for this unfairness is Mike Trout, who in 2012 produced 8.5 WARP and finished second in MVP voting. The Angels renewed his 2013 contract for essentially the league minimum. Trout’s agent spoke out about the unfairness, but Trout signed the deal anyway.

Teams have begun to recognize there’s a problem when young MVPs are making a fraction of older players’ salaries. The Cubs will compensate Kris Bryant in 2017 with hundreds of thousands more than they’re required to pay. The Red Sox will do the same with Mookie Betts. Still, the $950,000 Betts will earn this season is so far beneath his $25-million-plus true value that Betts symbolically refused to sign the contract Boston tendered. It doesn’t matter; the Red Sox retain his services anyway.

Two young Mets have also protest their automatically renewed below-market contracts. After Jacob deGrom went 14-8 with a 2.54 ERA and led the Mets to the 2015 World Series, the team renewed his contract at a minimal $607,000. But deGrom did not sign. And following Noah Syndergaard’s 14-9, 2.60 ERA 2016 season, the Mets renewed his contract at $605,550. Thor spit on that contract. These Mets–and Yonenis Cespedes–share the same agent, Brodie Van Wagenen of the Creative Artists Agency. When deGrom protested, Van Wagenen was quick to say that the unilateral contract renewal won’t affect the player’s relationship with the team. Maybe that’s true, but it misses the point.

The real question is whether these young studs–Bryant, Betts, Syndergaard, deGrom, Carlos Correa, who just criticized his own minimum-salary renewal–will bring their growing presence to bear inside the MLBPA. Today’s under-compensated pre-arb players are tomorrow’s multimillionaire veterans. When they’re established stars, will Syndergaard and deGrom demand leadership roles in the union and advocate for change to a collectively-bargained agreement that depressed their salaries when they were younger? Will they remember the indignity of being forced to play for a team-set salary and ensure that the next generation gets a much bigger piece of the salary pie?

In 1966, Koufax and Drysdale rebelled against an MLB whose antitrust exemption allowed teams to not compete for players under other teams’ control. No matter how much money the Yankees could spend, they never considered offering Koufax double his salary to move from L.A. to the Bronx. Koufax and Drysdale showed guts in holding out, though the risk was solely for their own personal gain.

When the current CBA expires in 2021, it would be even more courageous for Syndergaard and deGrom to speak against their best interest as veteran players, to insist they receive less money themselves in order to dismantle a system they know is unfair. Maybe they’ll co-author a piece in the Players’ Tribune, under the auspices of the New York Bureau Chief? I can’t wait to read that article.

Photo Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

At the opposite end of the wheeling-and-dealing spectrum is former Met pitcher Jerry Dipoto. Dipoto’s made 35 trades since taking over as Mariners general manager just 15 months ago. By contrast, during that time Alderson’s acquired only five players (that is, not PTBNL or cash) in trades: Jon Niese for Neil Walker; Akeel Morris for Kelly Johnson; Antonio Bastardo for Jon Niese; Dilson Herrera for Jay Bruce; and Erik Manoah for Fernando Salas. There’s probably a happy medium between five deals and 35. We’re going to thread that needle. Here, in the baseball purgatory that is January, we speculate on the quality and quantity of trades Dipoto would make if given the keys to the Mets’ roster. — Scott D. Simon (@scottdsimon)

Dipoto Deals For Character

Mets acquire RHP Hunter Strickland and UT-S Jimmy Rollins from San Francisco Giants for OF-L Jay Bruce, UT-S Jose Reyes, RHP Rafael Montero and $5 million.

Mets acquire OF-R Andrew McCutchen and $5 million from Pittsburgh Pirates for OF-L Michael Conforto, RHP Jeurys Familia, and UT-R Gavin Cecchini.

The Giants need a left fielder. Their current depth chart at the position lists Mac Williamson, Jarrett Parker and Gorkys Hernandez, who combine for a career WARP of 1.2. We know the Mets can’t move Jay Bruce at his $13 million salary for anything of value. Throwing in Sacks O’Cash and Jose Reyes, a potential +1 WARP switch-hitting utility guy making the league minimum, however, could bring back a short reliever with dominant stuff (if not results), and a much older utility guy on a minor-league invite. Especially if the Mets pay down a portion of Bruce’s salary. Montero might or might not ever become a big-leaguer, but it surely won’t happen in New York.

From all appearances, Michael Conforto has no place in New York either. Between the Mets re-signing Cespedes and picking up Bruce’s option, team brass has shown no desire to give their former first-round draft pick an unobstructed path to playing time. The Pirates have expressed ongoing interest in moving their franchise player. So why not flip Conforto, an All-Star capital-C Closer, and the Mets’ number-9 prospect (another former first-round pick) for a win-now outfielder whose declining range in the pasture is still probably better than that of Cespedes or erstwhile center fielder Curtis Granderson? Familia is by no means expendable, but with Strickland in the fold, his replacement is already in-house. Play with the cash coming back from Pittsburgh if you feel one side’s getting the better end of the bargain.

Do these deals make the Mets a better team? If we’re talking solely about on-field performance: Maybe! That’s the essence of a Dipoto trade diptych, after all. Indisputably, though, the deals make the Mets a better team to root for. There’s nothing like exchanging two accused domestic violence offenders for Roberto Clemente Award winners. Between Granderson, McCutchen and Rollins, the Mets would have the last three recipients of the honor given to the player who best represents the game of baseball through sportsmanship, community involvement and positive contributions, both on and off the field. Who says there’s no such thing as team chemistry? — Scott D. Simon (@scottdsimon)

Dipoto Chooses his Chasen

Mets acquire LHP Chasen Shreve from Yankees for RHP Chasen Bradford.

It was an opportunity that Jerry just couldn’t pass up. There are only three Chasens in MLB history and two of them played in New York, so relocation wouldn’t be a problem for the Yankee. The third Chasen had the boorish manners of a Yalie. No time for that.

Jerry had to make the move, even if it was just a reliever-for-reliever swap. How could he turn down this opportunity? The Mets hired him for a reason. He was Chasen history. — Andrew Mearns (@MearnsPSA)

Dipoto Nabs Nate

Mets acquire RHP Nate Jones from White Sox for RHP Jeurys Familia and OF-L Brandon Nimmo.

It would benefit the Mets to move on from Jeurys Familia, and not just because of the domestic abuse allegations. For a team on the Wild Card bubble, every win matters, and Familia is likely to miss dozens of games at the start of the season. And he’s expensive.

So let’s swap him out to the White Sox for their cheaper, older, slightly inferior reliever in Nate Jones. The Sox can afford to wait until Familia comes back, then flip him to a contender for a sizable prospect haul. As a reward, they get Brandon Nimmo, who actually ends up their Opening Day center fielder. –Bryan Grosnick (@bgrosnick)

Dipoto Unites with Yusmeiro and Signs Smith

Mets sign free agent RHPs Yusmeiro Petit and Joe Smith

One thing the New York Mets definitely know is that you can never have too many (relief) pitchers. Joe Smith is most remembered for his weird arm angle positioned somewhere between side-arm and submarine. The Mets traded him away back in 2008 for JJ Putz, who ended up being a putz (Yiddish for worthless person) during his one-year tenure as a member of the Mets. But Joe Smith went on to be successful with the Indians, Angels and Cubs, having pitched more than 70 games in five of the past six seasons. He would be able to eat some innings in case the Mets don’t want the young starting rotation going late into the game.

Yusmeiro Petit never actually pitched for the New York Mets but instead was traded as a prospect in the Carlos Delgado deal. He can serve as a long reliever or a spot-starter when the Mets want to give their starters an extra day of rest. Since being traded from the Mets he has played for the Marlins, Diamondbacks, Giants and Nationals as well as a short stint in the Mexican League. His career is most remembered for retiring 46 batters in a row in 2014. Mets fans are desperate for a move. While this wouldn’t fulfill desparate Jay Bruce trade fantasies, it would at least make Mets fans content knowing they have a few more relief options, especially when Familia starts the season suspended. — Seth Rubin (@sethrubin)

Dipoto Flips Franchises

Mets acquire Chain-L In-N-Out Burger from West Coast for Chain-R Shake Shack.

Last year Shake Shack moved out west, opening five Los Angeles area locations to complement their better known home in the northeast, including at Citi Field. We know Jerry Dipoto loves cross-country trades, and I don’t think he would stop with the players. Dipoto was a GM in Southern California for years, and SoCal hamburger eaters swear by In-N-Out. If Dipoto went east, he’d probably swap Citi Field’s Shake Shack for an In-N-Out because the family-owned business won’t expand to the East Coast by choice.

What better way to go down as the king of lateral moves than flipping one regional hamburger franchise for another? It won’t be long before fans start sharing In-N-Out’s secret menu on the train coming to and from the game! — Noah Grand (@noahgrand)

Dipoto Requires Respect

Mets acquire OF-L Colby Rasmus for OF-R Juan Lagares

Scrolling through baseball Twitter, Jerry Dipoto was appalled that he wasn’t the talk of the tweets. Instead, the confusing moves made by the Tampa Bay Rays drew the wonder and ire of commentators, and Jerry couldn’t stand for that. The Rays would not be the only team making ineffective, quasi-useless moves this offseason.

So he did what Dipoto does best: he traded inconsistent outfielder Juan Lagares for declining outfielder Colby Rasmus, a recent Rays pickup, and looked quite satisfied with himself. In his trading frenzy he was unaware that he allowed the Rays to once again make a befuddling move, and his pride was so great in this action that he sent a note to the Rays front office: I am the one who trades. — Brian Duricy (@briansusername_)

Dipoto Sends Himself

Mets acquire GM-R Jerry Dipoto from Mariners for future considerations.

Dipoto swayed softly in his ergonomic chair – the same model he had purchased for the entire front office. “Office comfort is the new market inefficiency,” he said at the time. He didn’t know if he still believed it. He didn’t know what he believed anymore.

The coffee on his desk had long since grown cold. He eyed the bourbon on his shelf for warmth instead. “No,” he decided after letting his eyes linger a moment longer. Last time he touched the stuff he woke up with a nine-figure bill for Josh Hamilton. He needed something, though. “Another speedy outfielder, of course. Probably a LOOGY or two, maybe a…” – his thoughts trailed off. It wouldn’t be enough. It never was. He needed more. Seattle wasn’t enough, he wanted to be a bigger star than a Beane or Epstein. He couldn’t do that in Seattle. “But where?” He did not know where the next thought came from – destiny, perhaps – but it was vivid. A third horse. A third amigo. Dipoto, Thor, and Yo. He thumbed down to “Alderson” in his phone… — Brock Chenier (@BrockChenier)

Photo Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

For the purposes of this list, I’m really just focusing on the team’s MLB acquisitions from outside sources … the folks the team acquires in order to complement the in-house players. Since Sandy Alderson took over baseball operations in 2011, these are the major additions the team has made:

• Signed RP D.J. Carrasco (12/10)
• Signed C Ronny Paulino (12/10)
• Signed RP Taylor Buchholz (1/11)
• Signed SP Chris Capuano (1/11)
• Signed SP Chris Young (1/11)
• Signed OF Scott Hairston (1/11)
• Acquired RP Danny Herrera and RP Adrian Rosario from the Brewers for RP Francisco Rodriguez (7/11)
• Claimed OF Mike Baxter off waivers from the Padres (7/11)
• Acquired RHP Zack Wheeler from the Giants for OF Carlos Beltran (7/11)
• Acquired OF Andres Torres and RP Ramon Ramirez from the Giants for OF Angel Pagan (12/11)
• Claimed SP Jeremy Hefner off waivers from the Pirates (12/11)
• Signed RP Jon Rauch (12/11)
• Signed RP Frank Francisco (12/11)
• Signed SP/RP Miguel Batista (1/12)
• Signed OF Scott Hairston (1/12)
• Signed IF Ronny Cedeno (1/12)
• Acquired cash from the Orioles for SS Omar Quintanilla (7/12)
• Acquired C Kelly Shoppach from the Red Sox for RP Pedro Beato (8/12)
• Claimed C Anthony Recker off waivers from the Cubs (10/12)
• Signed C Mike Nickeas (11/12)
• Acquired RHP Noah Syndergaard, C Travis d’Arnaud, C John Buck, and OF Wuilmer Becerra from the Blue Jays for RHP R.A. Dickey, C Josh Thole, and C Mike Nickeas (12/12)
• Acquired OF Collin Cowgill from the Athletics for 3B Jefry Marte (12/12)
• Signed SP Shaun Marcum (1/13)
• Signed RP Brandon Lyon (2/13)
• Signed OF Rick Ankiel (5/13)
• Acquired OF Eric Young Jr. from the Rockies for SP Collin McHugh (6/13)
• Acquired OF Kyle Johnson from the Angels for OF Collin Cowgill (6/13)
• Signed SP/RP Daisuke Matsuzaka (8/13)
• Acquired 2B Dilson Herrera and RP Vic Black from the Pirates for OF Marlon Byrd and C John Buck (8/13)
• Signed OF Chris Young (11/13)
• Signed OF Curtis Granderson (12/13)
• Signed SP Bartolo Colon (12/13)
• Acquired SP/RP Blake Taylor and RP Zack Thornton from the Pirates for 1B Ike Davis (4/14)
• Signed OF Michael Cuddyer (11/14)
• Signed OF John Mayberry Jr. (12/14)
• Acquired cash from the Yankees for RP Gonzalez Germen (12/14)
• Acquired RP Jerry Blevins from the Nationals for OF Matt den Dekker (3/15)
• Acquired RP Alex Torres from the Padres for SP Cory Mazzoni and RP Brad Wieck (3/15)
• Acquired cash from the Angels for OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis (5/15)
• Claimed OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis off waivers from the Angels (6/15)
• Acquired 3B Juan Uribe and UT Kelly Johnson and cash from the Braves for SP/RP Jon Gant and RP Rob Whalen (7/15)
• Acquired RP Tyler Clippard and cash from the Athletics for RP Casey Meisner (7/15)
• Acquired OF Yoenis Cespedes from the Tigers for SP Michael Fulmer and SP Luis Cessa (7/15)
• Acquired RP Eric O’Flaherty from the Athletics for RP Darwin Frias (8/15)
• Acquired OF Eric Young Jr. from the Braves for cash (8/15)
• Acquired RP Addison Reed from the Diamondbacks for RP Miller Diaz and SP Matt Koch (8/15)
• Acquired 2B Neil Walker from the Pirates for SP Jon Niese (12/15)
• Signed SS Asdrubal Cabrera (12/15)
• Signed RP Jerry Blevins (12/15)
• Signed SP Bartolo Colon (12/15)
• Signed OF Alejandro De Aza (12/15)
• Signed RP Antonio Bastardo (1/16)
• Signed OF Yoenis Cespedes (1/16)
• Acquired cash from the Blue Jays for OF Darrell Ceciliani (2/16)
• Acquired 1B James Loney from the Padres for cash (5/16)
• Acquired UT Kelly Johnson from the Braves for RP Akeel Morris (6/16)
• Signed OF Justin Ruggiano (7/16)
• Acquired OF Jay Bruce from the Reds for 2B Dilson Herrera and SP Max Wotell (8/16)
• Acquired SP/RP Jon Niese from the Pirates for RP Antonio Bastardo (8/16)

As you can see, I’ve highlighted in bold the deals that seemed to qualify as “major” in my eyes. Those are the deals that involved trading for or away a starter (position or pitcher) or closer … or involved signing someone intended to fill that role.

So … what do you think? Let us know in the comments. Are the Mets pretty good at going after major-league talent or not?

Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

With the non-waiver trade deadline a week away, speculation is rampant about whether or not the Mets will make any significant additions to the roster for what could be a tumultuous stretch run. Heading into Tuesday’s action, New York sat five games behind the Washingon Nationals in the NL East and tied with Miami for the second wild card spot. Baseball Prospectus’ playoff odds still see the Mets as the most likely second Wild Card, though the same Cardinals they face today and tomorrow aren’t far behind.

LOOKING AHEAD

Monday night’s scheduled starters face off in game one on Tuesday afternoon. Right-hander Noah Syndergaard (9-4, 2.43 ERA, 3.6 WARP) will hope the late afternoon shadows can help him navigate a Cardinals lineup that ranks first in the NL in home runs and RBIs. Syndergaard earned a no-decision at Wrigley field last Tuesday in the Mets 2-1 victory, scattering seven hits and allowing one unearned run over 5 2/3 innings while striking out eight Cubs.

Righty Carlos Martinez (9-6, 2.83 ERA, 2.6 WARP) looks to win his third straight start and become St. Louis’ first pitcher with double-digit victories this year. Manager Mike Matheny hopes to get a long outing from the 24-year-old known as “Baby Pedro”, as his bullpen was forced to hurl 20 2/3 innings during the team’s weekend series against the Dodgers.

Lefty starter Jaime Garcia (7-6, 3.98 ERA, 1.7 WARP) is slated to take the hill for St. Louis in the nightcap, opposed by the right-handed Bartolo Colon (8-5, 3.48 ERA, -0.1 WARP).

THE CAPTAIN’S CRADLE

David Wright and his wife Molly celebrated the birth of their first child, Olivia Shea, on Saturday. Baby, Mom and Dad are all reportedly doing well.

PEN PALS

Mets General Manager Sandy Alderson spoke to the media on Monday afternoon about his club’s potential activity leading up to the non-waiver trade deadline.

“The bullpen is the area where we can probably get someone who can make a difference at a relatively low cost in terms of prospects,” Alderson said. “I think realistically it’s unlikely that we will end up with another starting pitcher. I think it’s unrealistic that we will end up with a significant position player. With respect to the bullpen, we’re very happy with our bullpen but at the same time we’re looking to upgrade perhaps the bottom half of the bullpen so we have a little more depth.”

He also tried to temper expectations concerning the Mets making a big splash at the deadline like they did in 2015.

“This is the entertainment business. We talk about steak and sizzle and I enjoy sizzle as much as anybody,” Alderson said. “Those are the fun aspects of the job, but at the same time you have to be realistic about where one can improve and what makes sense both short-term and long-term.”

Photo credit: Adam Hunger: USA-TODAY Sports

It became very clear to me that my main decision as Sandy Alderson was largely binary: do I include Amed Rosario in this package, or not? Lucroy has rebounded from an injury-riddled 2015 to reclaim peak offensive performance in 2016, is generally considered one of the best defenders in the game, and has a team option for 2017 at just $5.25 million, so I expected him to go for a top, top prospect or major league equivalent. And I thought the process I went through in deciding whether to deal Rosario or not illuminated many of the issues the Mets have going into the 2016 deadline.

As of our recently published midseason update, Rosario is ranked as the 15th best prospect in baseball by Baseball Prospectus. The Mets only have one prospect of this level — as we discussed with BP minor league editor Craig Goldstein on last week’s For All You Kids Out There, not only was Rosario the only prospect on our midseason top 50, he was the only prospect given significant consideration for the list. Dominic Smith did show up on Keith Law’s recent midseason top 50, but there’s a huge drop from the 13th (where Law ranked Rosario) or 15th best prospect in baseball to the 44th best prospect in baseball (where Law ranked Smith). By including Smith along with other position players like Brandon Nimmo and Gavin Cecchini, the Mets can offer somewhat impressive volume in mid-tier position prospects, but only Rosario offers the big name fronting a big trade. Given that Drew Pomeranz, with only a half-season’s track record as a very good starting pitcher, returned Anderson Espinoza, BP’s 24th-ranked prospect, in one of the deadline season’s earlier moves, I don’t see Brewers GM David Stearns, or his trade game doppleganger, accepting Smith as anything more than a good second piece of such a deal.

So does Amed Rosario’s future with the Mets look like? Signed for $1.7 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2012, he’s been one of the top prospects in the Mets system since the day he joined it. Statistically, he scuffled through the 2015 season, putting up mediocre numbers but consistently impressing with his tools. He finally broke out this year, in his age-20 season, whacking around the Florida State League for a .309/.359/.442 triple-slash, and continuing his assault on pitching for the last month in the Double-A Eastern League. He’s a good defensive shortstop and could plausibly be a factor for the Mets, or whomever else has him, by mid-2017.

One way to look at Rosario’s future value is by looking at what value prospects in his range have returned to teams. Fortunately, Kevin Creagh and Steve DiMiceli of The Point of Pittsburgh have already done that calculation for us. Creagh and DiMiceli calculated that a hitting prospect ranked between 11 and 25 on major prospect lists averaged 13.0 WAR through their years of team control, and 74 percent of those prospects cracked 3 WAR over that span.

Another, less scientific way to get a range of outcomes is to take a peek at who we’ve ranked as around the 15th best prospect in baseball in the past. From 2007 to 2014, we ranked the following as the 14th, 15th, and 16th best prospects in baseball in our offseason lists: Yovani Gallardo, Andrew McCutchen, Clayton Kershaw, Andy LaRoche, Wade Davis, Jacoby Ellsbury, Giancarlo Stanton, Tim Beckham, Chris Tillman, Ryan Westmoreland, Martin Perez, Kyle Drabek (twice), Shelby Miller (twice), Manny Machado, Taijuan Walker, Jacob Turner, Travis d’Arnaud (twice), Billy Hamilton, Miguel Sano, Dylan Bundy, and Jonathan Gray. There’s certainly a few outright busts in there, but it’s mostly guys who have been good to very good when healthy, and McCutchen, Kershaw, Stanton, and Machado are all bonafide superstars. It’s certainly enough to make one hesitate before casually tossing Rosario aside.

After considering and dismissing Michael Conforto and d’Arnaud, I ultimately identified Zack Wheeler as the primary alternative big chip to Rosario. Indeed, almost a year ago, the Mets tried to deal Wheeler-plus for another Milwaukee Brewer, Carlos Gomez, at the time controlled for a year-and-a-half at substantially under market value. But Gomez is neither as good nor as cheap as Lucroy, and Wheeler probably isn’t as valuable an individual piece as Rosario is right now. Wheeler only has three years of team control remaining after 2016, whereas Rosario’s service clock is as of yet untouched, and it’s very easy to see the Brewers wanting a player with more control. The Mets are currently running out Logan Verrett every five days, and getting Wheeler back in August might be as big of a move for 2016 as getting Lucroy would be

Which brings up another consideration: how much should the Mets prioritize 2016 at all? The Mets are in much the same spot as when I last wrote about the buy/sell dilemma three weeks ago, on the fringes of the division race and in a mad scramble with four other teams for the two Wild Card spots. As of Wednesday morning, Baseball Prospectus only gave the Mets a 27.4 percent chance of reaching the NLDS. This, along with a thin rental market, is why you probably won’t see the Mets rent anything for more than the Akeel Morris, John Gant, and Rob Whalen sort of system depth that they’ve dealt to rent Kelly Johnson, Juan Uribe, and Kelly Johnson again over the past year. That takes the higher-end rentals like Rich Hill out of the equation, but Lucroy isn’t a rental, and he has a legitimate case as one of the best players in the game.

So where did I-as-Sandy Alderson come down on all this? I concluded that as good as Lucroy is, I just couldn’t move Amed Rosario for a player signed only through 2017 in the position the Mets were in. Were this a Chris Archer or Chris Sale trade game, then I’d be moving Rosario as the headliner. But, of course, it never hurts to try anyway, so I built what I thought was the most competitive, fair offer I could put together without Rosario. Was it enough for Sam Miller-as-David Stearns? Well, you’ll have to click on over to the Jonathan Lucroy Trade Game article to find out.

• David Wright will not start the Mets’ 2016 playoff games (he’s out for the season, if you’ve been under a rock)
• The 2016 team breaks the franchise record (200) for dingers (they’re 63% of the way there, having played 56% of their games)
• Addison Reed will be the Mets’ best reliever (his 1.8 WARP is substantially better than the next-best Hansel Robles, at 0.88)

On some of our season props, we chose… poorly:

• Michael Conforto (1.14 WARP, fifth on the Mets) will have a better season than Corey Seager (3.93WARP, 15th in MLB)
• Travis d’Arnaud (0.57 WARP, 10th on the Mets) will be the best catcher in baseball (that would be Buster Posey, 5.39 WARP, second among all players, not just catchers)
• Wilmer Flores redefines the super-sub role (he’s started only 10 games away from third base)

And a few could still go either way:

• Bartolo Colon (5.19 DRA, 0.24 WARP) will be better than Zack Wheeler (no timetable for his return)
• The Mets will miss Jon Niese (the team’s not ruling out a reunion)
• The Mets will win the 2016 World Series (it could happen!)

Given that sterling .500 record (complete with incompletes) how could you not trust our forthcoming second-half predictions? — Scott D. Simon (@scottdsimon)

Jeurys Familia Saves More Than 56 Games, Setting the National League Record

With his 32nd save of the season, recorded Friday night in Philly, Jeurys Familia tied Jason Isringhausen’s MLB record for most saves in a year without surrendering a dinger. Sure, a lot of Familia’s peripherals are down a tick or two compared to last year’s breakout campaign, but a lot of that is likely BABIP noise. And seeing as how he leads all relievers in saves this season — a perfect 32-for-32 — he’s clearly been aces when called upon.

At this point, Francisco Rodriguez’s single-season record of 62 saves is probably a longshot, but with the Mets’ combination of reliably good starting pitching and generally low-scoring offense, Familia should have an excellent chance at breaking the National League mark of 55, set by John Smoltz in 2002 and matched by (an enhanced) Eric Gagne the next year. Even if the Mets fall out of the playoff hunt, we likely still have quite a few more blastings of “Danza Kuduro” on tap before the year is out, and I wouldn’t be shocked at all if Familia is inching toward 60 saves by the time October arrives. — Erik Malinowski (@erikmal)

Sean Gilmartin and Gabriel Ynoa will Make Starts for the Major-League Club

Matt Harvey is out for the season with thoracic outlet syndrome. Steven Matz is start-to-start  with a bone spur. Noah Syndergaard left his last start before the all-star break with a dead arm. Zack Wheeler has yet to throw a single pitch in a rehab game. Logan Verrett isn’t a safe bet to get through the sixth in any given start. And if you want to trade for an arm, well Drew Pomeranz just cost a consensus top-25 prospect.

It seems like every Spring Training we discuss the Mets’ pitching surplus, but as the team enters the dog days of summer, they may very well be faced with Gabriel Ynoa and Sean Gilmartin hopping a JetBlue flight on short notice. Both have pitched “all right” in the Pacific Coast League, all things considered, but neither have the top line stuff Mets fans have grown accustomed to in their pitching prospects. By the same token, they probably won’t conjure up memories of Jorge Sosa, Brian Lawrence, Claudio Vargas, or Brandon Knight (and we could go on for a while in this regard). This was distinctly not the way they drew it up in Spring Training. — Jeffrey Paternostro (@jeffpaternostro)

The Mets Reunite With Another Familiar Face

The Mets came into the season sitting on a buffet of delicious pitching, but injuries, along with standard bullpen attrition, have thinned the ranks. A starting-pitcher acquisition is less likely than a reliever, but the team will be watching the market and don’t be surprised if they bring in a familiar face. With the Mets having already added back two alums in Kelly Johnson and Jose Reyes, it’s hard not to notice that some ex-Mets arms are potential bargains to fill out the back end of the bullpen and also make spot starts.

Carlos Torres is having a good year for the Brewers. The Pirates are begging anyone to take the struggling Jon Niese (who was very effective for the Mets out of the bullpen in a small sample). On the slightly higher end of the reliever spectrum, Tyler Clippard has been very good for the imploding Diamondbacks. Sandy Alderson has always tended towards the devil-you-know approach to team building, so keep an eye on these names as the hot stove gets hotter. — Maggie Wiggin (@maggie162)

Jose Reyes is DFA’d

Eight games, you’d likely agree, is the kind of sample we refer to as “small.” So we shouldn’t hold 2016 Jose Reyes’s .286 on-base percentage against him without further context. One hundred sixteen games is a slightly larger sample size. Last year, in so many contests, Reyes hit .274/.310/.378 in Toronto and Colorado — two of the best hitters’ parks in the major leagues. Set aside Reyes’s heavy baggage and just look at the player. Over his last 554 plate appearances, essentially a full season’s worth of time, Reyes has slashed .271/.308/.391 at ages 32 and 33. That’s barely replacement-level.

PECOTA suggests Reyes will post a .266 TAv the rest of the way. A league-average hitter and below-average infielder is nobody’s idea of an essential cog in a playoff machine. When the Mets acquire another position player — and let’s be frank, the Mets need to acquire another one, even with Michael Conforto’s return imminent — the team apparently won’t cut bait on James Loney or Alejandro De Aza. The Mets signed Reyes because he was free and they needed a warm body. Soon enough, he’ll be waiver bait again. — Scott D. Simon (@scottdsimon)

The Mets Struggle to Re-Integrate Lucas Duda

Lucas Duda struggled before his back injury. His .297 OBP was more than 30 points lower than his next-worst season as a regular. His de facto replacement James Loney has exceeded expectations so far, providing 0.5 wins above replacement after being plucked from the minor-league discard bin. Both players have posted a .285 TAv in around 150 plate appearances. They both prefer hitting against righties. Loney has a reputation as a good fielder, but the stats show he’s actually been below-average. It’s very difficult to see the Mets carrying both players until rosters expand. Loney’s success does not seem sustainable. He hasn’t posted a True Average this high since 2007!

But a low contact hitter like Duda may himself show high variance as he regains his timing after months away from live pitching. I think the Mets will be extremely deliberate with Duda, since calling him up may force them to release Loney. If Loney struggles and Duda isn’t on fire in rehab, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wilmer Flores get a bunch of starts at first while Duda stays in his rehab assignment. — Noah Grand (@noahgrand)

Yoenis Cespedes Breaks the Mets’ Single-Season Home Run Record

Cespedes is dealing with a quadriceps issue at the moment, but I’m expecting/hoping for a speedy recovery. Yoenis is hitting for more power this season than ever before, as his .281 ISO easily bests his previous career high of .251, set last year. He has also already hit 21 homeruns in 80 games played this season.

The Mets’ single season homerun record is 41; set by Todd Hundley in 1996 and tied by Carlos Beltran in 2006. By no means is Cespedes a lock to reach this figure, but he already has a bunch of homers in the books and we’ve seen him go on unbelievable offensive stretches in the past. Cespedes has the kind of power to set a Mets record. Considering the Mets’ place in the standings, they are going to need every last homer they can get. — Tyler Plofker (@TylerPlofker)

Jacob deGrom Pitches the Mets into the Playoffs in the Last Game of the Regular Season

This Mets team does not appear to be as ready to roll into the playoffs as the 2015 squad was. Unfortunately, Matt Williams is no longer managing the Nationals. Although there’s plenty of season left, the odds are against Washington blowing a seven-game lead. Entering action on Saturday, BP’s odds put the Nats’ NL East odds at 89.3%, so the Mets will probably have to survive a dogfight for the Wild Card.

That tight playoff race will go down to the last week of the season, and after the final 10-game homestand against the woeful Twins, Braves, and Phillies, the Mets will occupy the second Wild Card spot. However, I predict they’ll lose the next series to the Marlins and blow an opportunity to clinch in Philadelphia. On the last day of the season, they will need a win to avoid a one-game playoff, and Jacob deGrom will come to the rescue. A tremendous outing to silence Philly bats will wrap it up, with Jeurys Familia slamming the door on the Wild Card spot. — Andrew Mearns (@MearnsPSA)

Photo Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports