Left Behind: Michael Conforto Just Wants To Be Three

Michael Conforto had a very good weekend of baseball against the Cleveland Indians, ripping five hits in 12 at-bats, including a homer on Friday and three doubles sprinkled across the next two games. With the Mets playing a road interleague game and employing a fundamentally different lineup from the one they’ll most often use, Conforto was slotted into the No. 3 spot in the order, and golly did he look confident. Yes, hitting in front of Yoenis Cespedes might do that for a player, but as Anthony DiComo helpfully notes, Conforto is a natural No. 3 hitter, having hit there in high school and in college at Oregon State and during his 12-month trip through the minors since being drafted in 2014. Baseball players love familiarity, and Conforto sure made the most of his recognizable lineup environs against the Indians.

Yet for as good as he looked all weekend, what Conforto is not–at least in Terry Collins’ mind–is an everyday starter, primarily because some starting pitchers throw with their right hand and some their left. Collins has no qualms about playing Conforto (a left-handed hitter with a solid hit tool and power potential) against righties, but the manager still believes Conforto needs to prove he can hit lefties to be considered an everyday, No. 3-hitting no-brainer in his lineup.

The problem is Conforto hasn’t received any reasonable opportunity to hit lefties since his MLB debut last July. Through three levels of ball across 12 months of late 2014 and early 2015, Conforto hit .280 against left-handed pitching in 143 at-bats, which is definitely not terrible.

But since he came to the Mets, Conforto has seen 982 pitches and (according to Brooks Baseball) just 77 of those have come from lefties. Through 10 games this year, Conforto has seen 146 pitches from righties and a mere 12 from southpaws.

And yet, his MLB career splits (through Sunday) remain eerily similar:

• RHP: .277 AVG, 19.7 K%, .304 BABIP
• LHP: .278 AVG, 15.8 K%, .333 BABIP

Yes, the scourge of small-sample sizes certainly applies across both splits, but the larger point is that we don’t know enough about Conforto’s supposed difficulties against lefties to say they should be relegating him to platoon status. Yes, the power numbers haven’t materialized, but we’re talking about zero extra-base hits thus far in 19 plate appearances. Nineteen! We’re not quite at #LetMikeHit territory, but there’s simply no need to be this conservative in his usage. If Collins and general manager Sandy Alderson are so convinced Conforto needs massive development against lefties, then get him the in-game reps he needs.

I suspect a large part of Collins holding Conforto back against lefties is that he feels a need to spread more playing time across a crowded outfield, but the point will come soon when holding Conforto out of the lineup proves to be a net-negative, regardless of who’s throwing on the mound. Alejandro De Aza and Juan Lagares are significant dropoffs offensively, and thus far, Conforto has the team’s second-best TAv among starters (.333), best OPS (.984), and third-best VORP (3.4). For the remainder of the season, Baseball Prospectus projects Conforto to post a .280 TAv and be a 2.5-win player, which makes him about as valuable to the lineup as Cespedes (.284 TAv, 2.5 WARP).

With more weekends like what he did against Cleveland, Conforto will force Collins’ hand and become a true everyday left-fielder who hits best in that No. 3 spot. But sooner or later, Conforto will also simply be a very good player who should be batting against all pitchers. Somewhat encouraging was that Conforto was back in that No. 3 slot last night, as the Mets played the Phillies and returned to their DH-less configuration.

Of course, it was against a right-handed starter (Jared Eickhoff), but it’s a start.

Photo Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports