Through Sunday’s games, the Mets were alone in first place in the National League East all season, thanks to a 19-11 mark through 30 games and Joe Maddon’s stubborn/brilliant unwillingness to let Bryce Harper beat his team. And while there have been no shortage of critical contributions along the way, I might argue that the player who is most responsible for this little early-season milestone is closer Jeurys Familia, who, until 13 months ago, was simply another good reliever in a theretofore unproven Mets’ bullpen.
But just because Familia is where he is now largely because Jenrry Mejia was sloppy enough of a PED user to be caught by Major League Baseball–not once, not twice, but thrice!–shouldn’t really overshadow what he’s been able to bring to an imperfect Mets bullpen over the past three seasons. He was the team’s best reliever in 2014. He was the team’s best reliever in 2015. And in anchoring a Mets bullpen that has double the Wins Above Average of the next closest team, Familia is again the team’s best reliever. The Mets had played 30 games going into Monday’s series opener in Los Angeles and Familia had appeared in 15, finished 14, allowed no homers across 15 innings, and been credited with nine saves and an ERA+ of 166.
And yet, Familia has been off from his 2015 numbers. For as good as he’s been, he’s not on pace (0.4 thus far) to eclipse last year’s bWAR of 2.4. His K/9 is down (7.2 from 9.9), opposing hitters’ True Averages are up (.229 from .217), and perhaps most troubling in this still small-ish sample size is that his H/9 is way up (9.6 from 6.8). Sure, we can look at his opponents’ BABIP and cite the 61-point jump over 2015’s mark, but that’s still counting on a whole lot of regression to happen between now and the end of the season. And at least this far into the season, it’s a fact that hitters are making more contact on Familia and finding more success.
It hasn’t hurt Familia (or the Mets, by immediate extension) in any discernible way yet–he’s still allowed no homers and actually has a higher ground ball rate this season as opposed to last–but I can’t help but feel like it’s just a matter of time before Familia runs headlong into a real funk, if for no other reason than the 184 MLB appearances he’s racked up mostly over the past three years, which is already 66 more games across six career seasons of minor league ball combined.
For comparison’s sake, here’s Familia’s stats through his first 15 appearances in last season and this:
2015: 15 IP, 6 hits, 11 saves, 19 K, .143 BABIP, 53 BF, 191 pitches
2016: 15 IP, 16 hits, 10 saves, 12 K, .333 BABIP, 64 BF, 225 pitches
As opposed to last season, this has proven a much more taxing start to the year for Familia, who simply isn’t missing bats the way he did. Let’s look at seasonal rates for looking strikes, called strikes, and line drive rate:
2015: 19% StL, 18% StS, 15% LD
2016: 11% StL, 15% StS, 19% LD
Almost an inverse from one year to the next. Last season, Familia was lauded for being nearly unhittable at times. Harnessing the power of a splitter that can reach 95 mph (lol) will do that! This season, the ball is finding more bats and hitters aren’t being fooled as much. Is it because of pitch usage? Let’s see if there are any noticeable changes from last season.
Here’s 2015, a traditional sinker-slider approach:
And here’s 2016, where it appears Familia has concentrated heavily on his sinker, mostly to the detriment of a slider that’s gone MIA:
Too much sinker, not enough everything else. But aside from just usage, there’s also been a noticeable dip in Familia’s velocity.
Here’s 2015:
And 2016:
While his sinker looks to have maintained speed and the four-seamer maybe doesn’t quite have the same zip as before — both pitches are less than 1 MPH off of 2015 through 15 games — that’s a pretty concerning dip with the slider, which is down exactly 3 MPH over the same time. He’s throwing about 40% fewer sliders so far and those that he does throw are getting hit more often.
If Familia can just raise his slider velo a couple of ticks, something just a smidge closer to what he threw in 2015, it changes the whole equation and makes his entire repertoire even more nasty. (Seeing a uptick in that splitter usage, which is about 50% of last year, would also be nice.) But much like Matt Harvey, who himself seems to be turning a once-rocky season around, what Familia possesses right now is still enough to make him very, very good in his role on this team. But if he can again get anywhere near last year’s lights-out dominance, it makes life for the Mets a whole lot less worrisome.
As Mike Vorkunov wrote last week, Familia is indeed now a proven commodity. We know what we can expect from him. So far this season, that’s been both a blessing and a curse.
Photo Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports