The trade winds are blowing as the deadline draws closer in the 2016 season. Aroldis Chapman and Drew Pomeranz are just a few of the notable names who have switched teams, and there are sure to be several more over the next week. The Mets don’t seem terribly likely to make major moves as they did in 2015, but at least they aren’t selling. No matter what the prospect reward might be, it’s still sometimes tough for a fanbase to admit a season is lost.
That being said, closer Jeurys Familia is having a terrific season out of the bullpen. He leads baseball with 35 saves, hasn’t blown one all year, and has a 2.53 ERA, 2.43 FIP, and 8.7 K/9 as well. Familia’s success is far from new, as his numbers were even better in several categories in 2014 and 2015. Reliable relievers can be elusive, but it sure seems as though the Mets have found one in the 26-year-old right-hander.
With a team in obvious contention, Mets GM Sandy Alderson has almost no incentive to move Familia. What if he did though? Chapman just fetched the Yankees a nice haul and Pomeranz brought 19-year-old phenom Anderson Espinoza to San Diego. Familia is under team control through 2018, a good two and a half seasons. Since Pomeranz is a starter, the comparison to his return is a little different, but recent trade packages sent for Chapman, Ken Giles, and Craig Kimbrel offer some kind of guide as to what Familia might yield in a trade.
On Monday afternoon, Chapman was dealt to the Cubs in exchange for Gleyber Torres, Billy McKinney, Adam Warren, and Rashad Crawford. While there is certainly debate about the merits of each player moved, few would say that this was a light price for a few months of Chapman. However, with a 108-year World Series drought and an extremely talented team that is already loaded with young players, president Theo Epstein decided to approve the trade and hope for an October payoff. Torres and McKinney have both been ranked by Baseball Prospectus as Top 100 prospects (Torres atop the Cubs’ system), and despite early 2016 struggles, Warren was an effective swingman for the Yankees from 2013-15.
The Astros offered an impressive haul to the Phillies to pray Giles away during the off-season. Sure, the Phillies were not in a position to contend anytime soon, so a 25-year-old setup man as dominant as he was a luxury. For five years of control though, the Astros paid a heavy price. Vince Velasquez had an electric arsenal and was ranked in BP’s top 100 in 2015, but he went off to Houston. So did former number one overall pick Mark Appel, a three-time top-100 arm. There were other pieces moved, including major leaguer Brett Oberholtzer, but the focus was on Velasquez and Appel.
The closest comparison to Familia in terms of control might be Kimbrel, oddly enough. It’s a different situation, as he is in the middle of a four-year, $42 million contract with a $13 million option for 2018, so he’s not simply arbitration-eligible like Familia. Nonetheless, when he moved to the Red Sox from San Diego in November, Boston secured him for at least two years. Manuel Margot and Javier Guerra were the big prospects in this deal. Both were ranked in the BP top 100 list prior to the 2016 season, with Margot soaring all the way up to number 14. Second baseman Carlos Asuaje went to San Diego too, and he has a .293 TAv in Triple-A El Paso. Pitcher Logan Allen isn’t looking too shaky in A-ball, either. Like Chapman, Kimbrel is among the game’s elite closers, but he certainly cost Boston plenty of intriguing players.
So what might two and a half years of Familia retrieve? If the Yankees dealt Andrew Miller, that would offer perhaps an even better guide, as he is also under control through 2018, albeit at $9 million per year. Of course, Miller provides so much value in his role that he actually merits the price tag. Familia is not as good as Miller, though he would cost less in arbitration.
A return for Familia would probably not be as strong as what the overpowering Miller would bring to the Yankees. However, a general guide might be gleaned from Chapman, Giles, and Kimbrel. Each of them produced two top-100 caliber prospects and a player with some kind of fringe MLB role (or possible future role in Asuaje and Allen’s cases). It’s a difficult task to pick and choose interested teams and offers; creating trade proposals is fruitless from a fan perspective, particularly without insider information.
Still, the mere idea of trading Familia is intriguing. This is a seller’s market, given the prospects flying around. There are no guarantees that he would even bring back multiple top-100 prospects, but given these recent returns on relievers, the thought is far from extreme. Teams seem to be really paying for young closers with strong reputations.
Outside of Dominic Smith and Amed Rosario, there are not many main attractions in the Mets’ farm system as in years’ past. Dealing Familia could lead to a real boost, but they understandably won’t do it. This is their time to shine. They already have their bullpen ace to carry them to October.