I’ve lived in my Los Angeles neighborhood for 10 years, and this spring was the first time I saw anyone wearing a Cubs hat. It’s not like there’s a ton of Dodgers loyalty in my neighborhood either. Mets apparel was actually the second most common until suddenly people are hopping on the Cubs bandwagon. With how the Cubs’ title defense is going, those new hats may be going in the trash in a few months.
Chicago comes to Citi Field as a .500 team. The offense has been a vast disappointment, given the youth and pedigree of their lineup. The Mets have scored 19 more runs, despite Cespedes’ injury and the long-term struggles of Jose Reyes and Curtis Granderson. The Cubs led all of baseball in run prevention last year, holding opposing batters to an astoundingly low .255 batting average on balls in play. This year the Cubs are back up to an average BABIP allowed, and they’ve been an average run prevention team.
WHEN AND WHERE
Game 1: Monday @ 7:10 p.m. from Citi Field (TV: SNY; RADIO: 710 WOR, ESPN Deportes)
Game 2: Tuesday @ 7:10 p.m. from Citi Field (TV: SNY; RADIO: 710 WOR, ESPN Deportes)
Game 3: Wednesday @ 7:10 p.m. from Citi Field (TV: SNY & MLB Network (out of market); RADIO: 710 WOR, ESPN Deportes)
BASEBALL WEATHER
Monday: Record high temperatures expected in the day. Low of 75F.
Tuesday: Scattered thunderstorms. 50% chance of rain. Low of 70F
Wednesday: Clear skies, low of 60F.
PROBABLE PITCHING MATCHUPS
Monday: RHP John Lackey (4-6, 5.12 ERA, 5.79 DRA, .291 TAv, -0.2 WARP) vs. RHP Jacob deGrom (4-3, 4.75 ERA, 3.00 DRA, .269 TAv, 2.0 WARP)
Ever wonder how can a pitcher boost their strikeout rates yet still be a disappointment? Watch Monday’s game and you might get an answer. John Lackey is striking out a batter per inning for the first time in his career. He’s also giving up a career-high rate of hard hit balls at age 38. It’s hard to be above replacement level when you’re a fly ball pitcher and over 20 percent of those fly balls leave the ballpark. Jacob deGrom has had a brutal two game stretch – allowing 15 runs in 8 innings – ballooning his ERA by 1.52. He was pulled after 69 not so nice pitches in Texas, so hopefully he’s a bit more rested.
Tuesday: LHP Jon Lester (3-4, 4.13 ERA, 3.30 DRA, .266 TAv, 1.9 WARP) vs. RHP Zack Wheeler (3-3, 3.45 ERA, 5.19 DRA, .247 TAv, 0.2 WARP)
Jon Lester has been one of the Cubs’ most consistent starters, but in 2017, that’s not saying a whole lot. The veteran lefty has been walking more batters than in and season since 2011. Like every Cubs starter, he’s also seen a dramatic increase in BABIP after last season’s career low. Wheeler is coming off his best start of the season and, after a shaky April, he looks more and more comfortable coming back from missing two full seasons. Right now, he may be the Mets most reliable starter.
Wednesday: LHP Mike Montgomery (0-3, 2.43 ERA, 4.99 DRA, .220 TAv, 0.1 WARP) vs. RHP Matt Harvey (4-3, 5.02 ERA, 4.74 DRA, .277 TAv, 0.6 WARP)
Mike Montgomery was on the mound when the Cubs won the World Series and has turned into a long reliever this season, but with Kyle Hendricks on the DL, he’s scheduled to start Wednesday. He threw a season-high 73 pitches on short rest his first start of the season, so he may be able to throw a little more on full rest Wednesday. Matt Harvey is coming off his first start of 2017 where he didn’t allow a run. However, it still took him 104 pitches to get through five innings in Atlanta and it feels like it’s too early to talk about a potential turnaround. Leave plenty of time for this game – both pitchers issue a ton of walks.
WHO’S HOT?
Cubs 1B Anthony Rizzo (.379/.538/.586 in June)
Cubs 3B Kris Bryant (.941 OPS in the last week)
Mets IF Wilmer Flores (.411/.436/.644 since May 15)
Mets OF Jay Bruce (11-for-31 with 4 HR his last 7 games)
WHO’S NOT?
Cubs 2B/UT Ben Zobrist (3-for-38 with 1 extra base hit his last four series)
Cubs C Willson Contreras (batting .231 with no extra base hits in June)
Mets IF Jose Reyes (8-for-58 since he finally got his batting average above .200 two weeks ago, below replacement for the season)
Mets C Travis d’Arnaud (batting .200/.248/.400 in the last four series)
WHEN WE LAST MET
The Mets swept the Cubs in a four-game series in New York last year. The Cubs were still the best team in the league and it looked like the Wild Card Mets might be headed for a playoff rematch. But the Mets couldn’t make it that far, losing to the Giants in a tense Wild Card game. If the season ended today, neither the Mets or Cubs would make the playoffs, but, of course, the season isn’t even halfway done. The Cubs only trail Milwaukee by one game in a very weak division, while the Mets may have to concede that the Wild Card is the only way to make the playoffs again in 2017.
It’s Literally a 10-day DL
The Mets intend to play Yoenis Cespedes on a regular basis from this point forward, even though he admitted his hamstring wasn’t 100 percent when he got activated from the disabled list. Over the last few weeks, the Mets had said Robert Gsellman will get moved to the bullpen once Steven Matz and Seth Lugo are back, but they seem have moved instead to a six-man rotation.
NOTABLE QUOTABLES
“It was fun, and all I was hoping for to go out there to execute some pitches and have fun,” said Lugo, who did a lot more than just show up in Sunday’s win.
“It was a nice win to get on an airplane to head out of town. It’s all about confidence, man. As we continue to rebuild their confidence and as they get it back, you’re going to see a lot more of that.” – Cubs manager Joe Maddon, sounding positively thrilled to win one of four games against the Rockies.
Photo credit: David Banks – USA Today Sports