MLB: Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies

Stat Preview: Philadelphia Phillies, August 16-20

As we enter the final month and a half of the season, the Mets and Phillies will match up 11 times, which is more than any other opponent for either squad. The Mets, then, will play a starring role in Philadelphia’s push for the playoffs. The two teams have already affected each other’s futures by agreeing to trade Asdrubal Cabrera for Franklyn Kilome, and Cabrera has been used regularly so far in Philadelphia. He and the rest of the Phillies’ trade acquisitions are the focus of this stats preview.

The Advent of Asdrubal: Cabrera has not picked up in Philadelphia where he left off in New York, hitting just .218/.271/.382 through his first 15 games. With the Mets, he was an above average major league hitter (.297 TAv), but he has been just as far below average (.220 TAv) in Philly red. The sample size is obviously small (59 plate appearances), but Cabrera has struck out more so far with the Phillies (19.9% to 27.1%). With plenty of opportunities coming with his new club, and a relatively easy schedule (the Phillies only play 14 of their final 43 games against teams that currently have a winning record), Cabrera will likely have a chance to rebound and produce more like his earlier numbers.

Aaron’s Arrival: Aaron Loup was greeted rudely by opponents in the start to his Phillies career. In his first three appearances, he threw one inning and allowed two runs. In his time with Toronto before the trade, he fared better, with a 10.6 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and 3.63 FIP. His ERA and DRA were not as kind, though, at 4.54 and 4.79, respectively. One reason for optimism is his high .389 BABIP. Even though he has sat above a .335 BABIP in each of the last four seasons, he has never been this high over a full season. As a sinkerball pitcher, Loup generates a pretty good ground ball rate (46.5%), which further supports the notion that his BABIP numbers are unsustainably high. Mets hitters have had mixed results on sinkers this year, with Michael Conforto hitting .385 on the pitch, but Brandon Nimmo hitting just .211.

Justin’s Just In: An August waiver claim resulted in a trade for Justin Bour from the Marlins, providing the Phillies with another left-handed power bat. He has just a handful of at-bats for his new club, but before the trade, he was having a down year. His .285 TAv would be his worst in a full season, and he was slashing just .227/.347/.412. On the bright side, Bour was on pace to be right around his career high of 25 home runs and his walk rate is the fifth best among qualified batters. Of the four NL East teams he has played against, Bour has hit the fewest number of home runs against the Mets (9), but all three numbers of his slash line against the Mets (.276/.367/.503) are his second best against NL East opponents.

Quick Hits

The Good: The Phillies now have four batters in the top 14 in BB% (Carlos Santana, Bour, Cesar Hernandez, Rhys Hoskins). For the Mets, Michael Conforto (14th) and Brandon Nimmo (21st) are also near the top of the list.

The Bad: Newly acquired catcher Wilson Ramos, who debuted last night, has the second worst net double plays in the majors with 9.75.

The Ugly: Aaron Altherr has the worst WARP (-1.28) of any NL position player.

Mets Check-In

With almost three quarters of the season finished, the Mets are on pace for 69 wins. It would be their worst win total since 2003 and put them in position for the seventh pick in the 2019 draft. The last time the Mets picked in the top ten in back-to-back drafts was 2004 and 2005 when they selected Phil Humber (3) and Mike Pelfrey (9), respectively.

Photo credit: Bill Streicher – USA Today Sports

Related Articles

Leave a comment

Use your Baseball Prospectus username