MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers

Stat Preview: Los Angeles Dodgers, September 3-5

The Dodgers enter into their final 2018 series against the Mets sitting atop the NL West standings after winning eight of their last 10. As Dodger teams have done the last few years, this squad has fended off swaths of injuries through their superior system-wide depth and ability to dip into said depth to make timely trades (see Machado, Manny). This stat preview focuses on two of those recent additions and one re-addition whose second half production has paled in comparison to that in the first half.

Kemp’s Implosion: In the last Dodgers’ stats preview, Matt Kemp was one of the team leaders in WARP and one of the surprise players that was helping keep the team afloat in the NL West. Despite Bob Nightengale’s insistence that Kemp is the Dodger’s MVP (Grandal, Turner, Muncy, Bellinger, Taylor, Machado, Kershaw, Maeda, Stripling, Wood and Buehler all say “hello”), he has fallen hard since his first half resurgence. Two and a half months since the first series with the Mets, and Kemp has a lower WARP now than he did then. If the season ended today, he would still post a respectable .283/.336/.468 slash line with 18 home runs, but his recent production has been a heavy drag on his overall stats. He has hit just .212/.295/.345 in the season’s second half and, for a DH posing as an outfielder (average of -7.3 FRAA the last three seasons), those offensive numbers are almost unplayable in a starting role. The Dodgers have added reinforcements to their lineup through trade and health improvements, though, so expect Kemp to see less playing time in the season’s final month.

Pat’s Pair: This is not really stats related, except the part about counting to two. It is not very often that what there is two of is MLB quality throwing arms on the same body, though, even if it’s on the low end of the spectrum. That is what Pat Venditte has, and in case you do not remember his previous MLB stints with the Athletics, Mariners or Toronto, here is a reminder that he is back and could be pitching to Mets hitters this week.

Ryan’s Regression: Ryan Madson was a recent acquisition from the Nationals, but he has not been very effective on the mound this season. He has regressed in nearly every way: K/9, BB/9, GB%, BABIP, HR/9, ERA, FIP and DRA. Batters are not chasing as many of his pitches out of the zone (3.6% decrease), and they are swinging at more pitches in the zone (4.2% increase). Perhaps Madson has become less deceptive, because it’s probably not his raw stuff causing his decline. His velocity is actually one of the only areas he has improved this season, as his 96.5 mph average fastball is the fastest it has been in his career (that is true for his sinker, cutter and curve as well). Since the Dodgers took a flier on him in the middle of a heated playoff push, they probably have a plan to improve his results. Otherwise, they cannot afford to use the version of Madson that produced a 6.19 DRA and -0.7 WARP for the Nationals in the season’s first five months. This series could be the first attempts to implement those changes, so look to see if there is any noticeable difference in Madson’s presentation of the ball and the Mets’ plate discipline against him.

Quick Hits

The Good: The Dodgers lead the NL in home runs (190) and only trail the Yankees (222) for the MLB lead. The Mets have 139 home runs.

The Bad: Clayton Kersahw’s K% (24.4%) is the lowest it has been since his rookie season.

The Ugly: Austin Barnes’ drop in TAv from 2017 to 2018 is over 100 points (.325 to .224).

Mets Check-In

As Tyler Oringer mentioned in his piece on September call-ups last week, Eric Hanhold was a fringy reliever with a chance to be brought up when rosters expanded. The Mets announced they do, in fact, plan to bring up Hanhold, meaning the lone piece in the return in last year’s Neil Walker trade will get his first shot in the major leagues. At four different minor league levels this year, Hanhold has a 10.4 K/9, 2.92 BB/9 and FIPs and DRAs floating around three. His addition is not as flashy as someone like Peter Alonso would have been, but keep an eye on him because he has the potential to stick in the Mets’ pen.

Photo credit: Gary A. Vasquez – USA Today Sports

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