The Braves are coming off their division-clinching sweep of the Phillies as they enter New York. The Mets can no doubt take some credit for the Braves’ division title, as they went 11-8 against Philadelphia and have gone just 4-12 against Atlanta. The Braves have added a lot of new faces since these two clubs last met, though, and they will give some of those new faces playing time this week as they rest up their regulars before the playoffs. This stat preview focuses on some of those faces you may see this series.
Sobotka’s Strikeouts: One rookie pitcher without significant hype is reliever Chad Sobotka. He has a 12.4 K/9 through his first 12.1 major league innings, though, so he may be someone to keep an eye on. Until this season, Sobotka had only posted a K/9 above 9 at one stop (High-A) in the minors, but this year he has not posted a K/9 below 11.6 at any of his four levels. Without minor league pitch data, it is hard to know any changes he may have made, but it seems likely some adjustment is leading to the significant bump in strikeouts. His walks remain an issue (5.8 BB/9), and his BABIP of 0.091 suggests serious regression could be coming, but with a fastball averaging 96.9 mph and strikeout rates that high, Sobotka has the potential to be a weapon in the pen. That fastball velocity is in the 91st percentile among relievers this year.
Lane’s Legs: Lane Adams is actually in his second stint with the Braves this season after spending a brief period with the Cubs in between. The Braves have deployed him mostly as a pinch runner, and his legs certainly warrant those kind of decisions. Since 2016, in the majors and minors, he has a stolen base for every 12.1 plate appearances. This is kind of an obscure measure, so here is how the 2018 steals leaders’ current plate appearance per steal rates stack up: Trea Turner: 16.9, Whit Merrifield: 17.9, Mallex Smith: 14.3, Jose Ramirez: 20.3, Starlin Marte: 17.5. I could keep going, but only one batter in the top 20 in steals has a lower rate than Adams’ 2016-2018, and that is Adalberto Mondesi of the Royals with 10.1 plate appearances per steal (keep in mind, lower is better because it means fewer plate appearances in between steals). In fact, no qualified batter has a lower rate than Adams’ three-year numbers. Yes, these stats for Adams include some time in the minors, but it is still impressive when you consider the only qualified batters to have better rates last year were Dee Gordon and Billy Hamilton. Adams may be used exclusively as a pinch runner in the playoffs, but look for him to get some at bats in this series, as his bat is no slouch (.298 career TAv, but small sample size).
Touki Tuesdays: With his start tonight, Touki Toussaint will likely pass Mike Soroka for the most innings thrown as a starter by a Braves rookie this year. Toussaint has taken significant strides over the last two seasons, posting strikeout rates 26% or higher in each of his minor league stops. Only 15 qualified starters have a K% better than 26% this year. While Touki’s walk rate has spiked in his time in the majors (an ugly 16.3%), his minor league numbers were much better (8.5% in Triple-A) and have generally been trending in the right direction of the last few years. He may not be ready to slot into a major league rotation just yet, but if he can get those walk numbers back down to his recent minor league levels, he could be a scary foe in the division for the next few years.
Quick Hits
The Good: The Braves’ .671 winning percentage against the NL East is the best of any National League team against its own division. Only the Red Sox have a better record within their division. The Mets’ winning percentage against the NL East is .514.
The Bad: Nick Markakis’ monthly slugging percentages could foretell a frustrating free-agency for the 34-year-old: .472, .534, .464, .483, .388, .325.
The Ugly: Over the last 30 days, Braves pitchers have allowed 123 walks, 10 more than the next closest team. The Mets have allowed 87.
Mets Check-In
As the Mets begin their final home stand, they have clinched a losing season and almost certainly fourth place in the NL East. This will be their eighth season below .500 in the last 10 years, and their sixth fourth place finish in that time. They are currently only 15 games back of first place, and while that number has long ceased to have meaning in terms of standings, it would be the smallest gap from first place the organization has ever had in a fourth or worst finish.
Photo credit: Dale Zanine – USA Today Sports