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Previous April Standouts and Noah Syndergaard’s Future

When the Mets were in the World Series last year against the Royals, Noah Syndergaard was merely their Game 3 starter. As Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller noted on the “Effectively Wild” podcast, that fact is incredible to consider at this point (with all due respect to Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom); “Thor” has certainly brought the thunder early in 2016.

The flamethrowing righty began the 2016 season with a flourish, overpowering the National League in April with 38 strikeouts in just four starts and 26 and two-thirds innings. He has yet to allow a home run and his 12.8 strikeouts per nine innings are the best in the NL, trailing only David Price among all starters. By Baseball Prospectus measures, he leads all starters with a 1.00 FIP and is tied with Clayton Kershaw for the NL lead with a 65 cFIP (again behind only Price for the MLB lead). Syndergaard is in tremendous company and seems to be the most exciting starter on a pitching staff chock full of talent.

Now that Syndergaard is done pitching in April, fans can only wonder what the rest of the campaign could offer. He is probably not going to be quite this spectacular for the entire season and could very well simply be in the middle of a hot streak. After all, Syndergaard is just one of several Mets in franchise history who dominated in April.

Not all arms are alike and April trends vary from year to year, but it can still be revealing to look back on those previous Aprils to see how the pitchers fared for the rest of the season. Using the Baseball-Reference Play Index, I searched all Aprils in Mets history for pitchers who owned the month as much as Syndergaard, which means a sub-2.00 ERA and a sub-1.000 WHIP in at least four starts.

Player Year April
G GS ERA WHIP IP H R ER HR BB SO SO9 BB9
Tom Seaver 1968 4 4 1.59 0.794 34 26 9 6 1 1 17 4.5 0.3
Jerry Koosman 1968 4 4 1.04 0.923 34.2 23 5 4 1 9 27 7.0 2.4
Tom Seaver 1970 5 5 1.90 0.914 42.2 34 9 9 2 5 43 9.1 1.1
Tom Seaver 1971 5 5 1.37 0.839 39.1 24 6 6 0 9 45 10.3 2.1
Tom Seaver 1973 5 5 1.12 0.793 40.1 21 5 5 5 11 30 6.7 2.5
Jerry Koosman 1973 4 4 1.06 0.853 34 22 6 4 1 7 14 3.7 1.9
Tom Seaver 1976 5 5 1.89 0.947 38 25 8 8 1 11 35 8.3 2.6
Tom Seaver 1977 5 5 1.52 0.871 41.1 27 7 7 2 9 32 7.0 2.0
Craig Swan 1978 4 4 1.24 0.759 29 15 6 4 1 7 19 5.9 2.2
Dwight Gooden 1985 5 5 1.38 0.795 39 21 7 6 2 10 34 7.8 2.3
Dwight Gooden 1986 5 5 1.26 0.791 43 28 7 6 2 6 32 6.7 1.3
Frank Viola 1990 4 4 1.32 0.732 27.1 18 4 4 1 2 29 9.5 0.7
Rick Reed 1997 5 4 1.03 0.771 35 22 6 4 2 5 22 5.7 1.3
Al Leiter 2002 6 6 0.92 0.821 39 23 12 4 1 9 32 7.4 2.1
Tom Glavine 2004 5 5 1.64 0.970 33 25 8 6 1 7 11 3.0 1.9
Johan Santana 2009 5 5 1.10 0.949 32.2 22 6 4 2 9 44 12.1 2.5
Matt Harvey 2013 6 6 1.56 0.818 40.1 21 7 7 2 12 46 10.3 2.7
Noah Syndergaard 2016 4 4 1.69 0.975 26.2 22 5 5 0 4 38 12.8 1.4

There were 16 other occasions in Mets history with starters as sharp as Syndergaard in April. None of them struck batters out at a better rate than him, though most recorded better ERAs and WHIPs, even with higher innings totals. Compared to their Aprils, here is how those pitchers performed for the entire season, sorted by ERA. (Bold indicates that the pitcher led the league.)

Player Year Full Season % Increase
G GS ERA WHIP IP H R ER HR BB SO SO9 BB9 ERA WHIP
Dwight Gooden 1985 35 35 1.53 0.965 276.2 198 51 47 13 69 268 8.7 2.2 11% 21%
Tom Seaver 1971 36 35 1.76 0.946 286.1 210 61 56 18 61 289 9.1 1.9 28% 13%
Jerry Koosman 1968 35 34 2.08 1.100 263.2 221 72 61 16 69 178 6.1 2.4 100% 19%
Tom Seaver 1973 36 36 2.08 0.976 290 219 74 67 23 64 251 7.8 2.0 86% 23%
Tom Seaver 1968 36 35 2.20 0.978 278 224 73 68 15 48 205 6.6 1.6 38% 23%
Matt Harvey 2013 26 26 2.27 0.931 178.1 135 46 45 7 31 191 9.6 1.6 46% 14%
Craig Swan 1978 29 28 2.43 1.071 207.1 164 62 56 12 58 125 5.4 2.5 96% 41%
Tom Seaver 1977 33 33 2.58 1.014 261.1 199 78 75 19 66 196 6.8 2.3 70% 16%
Tom Seaver 1976 35 34 2.59 1.063 271 211 83 78 14 77 235 7.8 2.6 37% 12%
Frank Viola 1990 35 35 2.67 1.150 249.2 227 83 74 15 60 182 6.6 2.2 102% 57%
Tom Seaver 1970 37 36 2.82 1.077 290.2 230 103 91 21 83 283 8.8 2.6 48% 18%
Dwight Gooden 1986 33 33 2.84 1.108 250 197 92 79 17 80 200 7.2 2.9 125% 40%
Jerry Koosman 1973 35 35 2.84 1.179 263 234 93 83 18 76 156 5.3 2.6 168% 38%
Rick Reed 1997 33 31 2.89 1.042 208.1 186 76 67 19 31 113 4.9 1.3 181% 35%
Johan Santana 2009 25 25 3.13 1.212 166.2 156 67 58 20 46 146 7.9 2.5 185% 28%
Al Leiter 2002 33 33 3.48 1.287 204.1 194 99 79 23 69 172 7.6 3.0 278% 57%
Tom Glavine 2004 33 33 3.60 1.290 212.1 204 94 85 20 70 109 4.6 3.0 120% 33%
Average 33 33 2.58 1.082 244.3 201 77 69 17 62 194 7.1 2.3 101% 29%

It should hardly come as a surprise that Seaver was able to maintain most of that April form throughout his seasons. Hall of Fame talent usually keeps a pitcher on top, whereas lesser pitchers couldn’t keep pace. Gooden’s 1985 campaign is in the conversation for the greatest pitching seasons of the modern era, so “Doc” topping the list is not a shock, either. ERAs averaged a 101% increase, and WHIPs went up by 29%, forecasting a potential Syndergaard season-ending line of a 3.40 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. (It would make sense to trust in PECOTA’s more mathematically sound 3.04 ERA and 1.09 WHIP rest-of-season projection though.)

Regardless, Syndergaard’s rate stats compare more favorably with the likes of Seaver and Gooden than the others. Harvey’s 2013 would fit in well too … if it didn’t have the asterisk of being somewhat abbreviated thanks to his season-ending Tommy John surgery. The other pitchers were not strikeout artists like Syndergaard, and the lower ERAs unsurprisingly tended to correlate more with high strikeout totals (save for Koosman’s 1968, an anomaly enabled by the Year of the Pitcher’s microscopic statistics). Leiter’s 2002 does not jive with Syndergaard’s 2016 either, as he has consistently walked fewer batters than Leiter typically did. It would probably be asking too much for Syndergaard to match legends like Seaver and Gooden, but since their rates are closest to his, final figures in their general vicinity could be in his future.

Santana in 2009 and Seaver in 1970 likely showed the worst-case scenarios for Syndergaard’s season at this point. Both aces maintained good strikeout rates and control and still had strong campaigns anyway, but their ERAs jumped thanks in part to surrendering at least 20 homers each. Although Syndergaard has yet to surrender a dinger this year, he gave up about a homer per nine innings in 2015. A reckoning will come at some point; it will just be on him to avoid mistakes and, of course, keep baserunners to a minimum.

Syndergaard’s April success has offered some extremely encouraging signs of his evolution as a pitcher. Even if the 23-year-old righty isn’t this dominant for the rest of the season, the successes of these previous April sensations suggest that he is on pace for a truly excellent 2016. The biggest test will be how he reacts to the higher expectations. Thankfully, Syndergaard definitely has the talent to meet the challenge.

Photo Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

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1 comment on “Previous April Standouts and Noah Syndergaard’s Future”

Mike

Ha sorry.

I love how he let’s up a homer first day of May. Darn small sample sizes. But if his worst comp is really Seaver’s ’70 it’s gonna be a fun year. Though those stolen bases might be worse than the homers!

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