As I start to write this article, we’re a little over a month into the 2016 baseball season and a theme has started to emerge for the New York Mets: power. In the first 34 games of the season, the Mets have had some extremely memorable moments and most of them revolve around the home run. Already we’ve seen:
- Yoenis Cespedes pinch-hit a game-tying, first-pitch three-run home run (on one leg),
- Neil Walker tie the Mets record for most home runs in April,
- Bartolo Colon set the record for oldest (and greatest) player to hit his first career home run,
- Cespedes cap off a 12-run inning with a grand slam,
- Noah Syndergaard hit two home runs against Kenta Maeda,
- and, of course, I’ve already documented the team’s early season back-to-back binge.
In fact the Mets currently lead the league in both most home runs hit and fewest home runs allowed (HRA) which made me curious to see how many teams have ever done that for a full season and what kind of chance the Mets have of doing it this year.
If home runs and home runs allowed were completely independent, you would expect a team to lead the league in both approximately once every 30 (the number of teams in the league) years. There are many reasons why they are not independent including the biggest factor, the designated hitter. The DH makes it much easier for an American League team to lead the league in home runs and for an National League team to lead the league in fewest home runs allowed. In fact, since the introduction of the DH in 1973, 37 AL teams have led (or tied) the league in home runs while only seven NL teams have done so. Conversely, 39 NL teams have led (or tied) the league in home runs allowed compared to only four AL teams. Right away the chances of a team leading the majors in both categories drops dramatically from that theoretical one team every 30 seasons.
Of course, we don’t need to rely on theory since it’s easy enough to figure out which teams have led the MLB in both home runs and home runs allowed. The most recent team to accomplish it was the 1906 Philadelphia Athletics who hit 32 home runs and allowed only nine. Seeing that no team has led in both statistics for 110 years makes me a bit less optimistic about the Mets chances.
Teams who led MLB in HR and HRA
| Year | League | Team | Home Runs | Home Run Rank | Home Runs Allowed | Home Runs Allowed Rank | Home Run Differential |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1880 | NL | Boston Red Stockings | 20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 18 |
| 1886 | NL | Detroit Wolverines | 53 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 33 |
| 1892 | NL | Philadelphia Quakers | 50 | 1 | 24 | 1 | 26 |
| 1906 | AL | Philadelphia Athletics | 32 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 23 |
If no team has led in both measure since 1906, that made me wonder which teams have come the closest since then. I first measured this in an absolute sense by combining the number of home runs behind the league leader and the number of home runs allowed above the league leader for each season. The list below is mostly composed of teams from a vastly different era than today. (Of the 11 teams who trailed by single digits, nine of them were in 1918 or earlier.) However, two teams stand out: the powerhouse 1927 Yankees and our very own 1988 Mets. Each of these teams missed leading the league by six total home runs with the Yankees leading in home runs but allowing six more than the league leader and the Mets leading in fewest home runs allowed but trailing the league leader by six home runs.
Teams Closest to Leading MLB in HR and HRA (Raw Totals)
| Year | League | Team | HR | HR Rank | HRA | HRA Rank | Most HR | Fewest HRA | HR Back | HRA Back | Back Total | Back Total % | HR Differential |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1909 | NL | Cincinnati Reds | 22 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 26 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12.9% | 17 |
| 1988 | NL | New York Mets | 152 | 3 | 78 | 1 | 158 | 78 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 2.5% | 74 |
| 1927 | AL | New York Yankees | 158 | 1 | 42 | 3 | 158 | 36 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 3.1% | 116 |
| 1907 | AL | Philadelphia Athletics | 22 | 2 | 13 | 6 | 23 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 19.4% | 9 |
| 1918 | NL | St. Louis Cardinals | 27 | 1 | 16 | 11 | 27 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 19.4% | 11 |
| 1909 | NL | Chicago Cubs | 20 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 26 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 22.6% | 14 |
| 1908 | AL | St. Louis Browns | 20 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 28 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 22.9% | 13 |
| 1907 | NL | Pittsburgh Pirates | 19 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 23 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 25.8% | 7 |
| 1909 | NL | Pittsburgh Pirates | 25 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 25.8% | 13 |
| 1918 | AL | Philadelphia Athletics | 22 | 3 | 13 | 7 | 27 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 25.0% | 9 |
| 1909 | AL | Philadelphia Athletics | 21 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 26 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 29.0% | 12 |
The above chart is clearly biased towards older teams who played in an era with significantly fewer home runs. The 2016 Mets, a mere month into their season, have already hit more home runs than eight of the teams on the list. With such low home run totals, it isn’t surprising that older teams dominate this measure. To correct for this I also looked at teams by their percentage back. I calculated this by taking the combined number back and dividing it by the league leading number of home runs hit plus the fewest home runs allowed that year. This denominator would allow a team who led in both statistics would finish 0% back, which makes sense. The 1988 Mets jump to the top of the list when sorting teams this way.
Teams Closest to Leading MLB in HR and HRA (%)
| Year | League | Team | HR | HR Rank | HRA | HRA Rank | Most HR | Fewest HRA | HR Back | HRA Back | Back Total | Back Total % | HR Differential |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1988 | NL | New York Mets | 152 | 3 | 78 | 1 | 158 | 78 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 2.5% | 74 |
| 2001 | NL | San Francisco Giants | 235 | 2 | 145 | 1 | 246 | 145 | 11 | 0 | 11 | 2.8% | 90 |
| 1927 | AL | New York Yankees | 158 | 1 | 42 | 3 | 158 | 36 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 3.1% | 116 |
| 1948 | AL | Cleveland Indians | 155 | 2 | 82 | 2 | 164 | 81 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 4.1% | 73 |
| 2000 | AL | Oakland Athletics | 239 | 3 | 158 | 2 | 249 | 151 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 4.3% | 81 |
| 1993 | NL | Atlanta Braves | 169 | 4 | 101 | 1 | 181 | 101 | 12 | 0 | 12 | 4.3% | 68 |
| 1998 | NL | Atlanta Braves | 215 | 4 | 117 | 1 | 234 | 117 | 19 | 0 | 19 | 5.4% | 98 |
| 2000 | NL | San Francisco Giants | 226 | 6 | 151 | 1 | 249 | 151 | 23 | 0 | 23 | 5.8% | 75 |
| 1974 | AL | Oakland Athletics | 132 | 4 | 90 | 2 | 139 | 84 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 5.8% | 42 |
| 1959 | NL | Milwaukee Brewers | 177 | 1 | 128 | 4 | 177 | 111 | 0 | 17 | 17 | 5.9% | 49 |
I’ve established that the designated hitter is a huge impediment to a team leading MLB in both home runs and home runs allowed. One way to even the playing field is to look at the leaders broken down by their respective leagues. With consistent rules and fewer teams in each of these leagues we’d still expect a 1/n (where n is the number of teams in the league) probability of a team leading in each of those measures in a year, assuming independence.
There are, however, other factors beyond the designated hitter which make it less likely for a team to lead in both statistics. The main one which I can think of is the stadium which the team plays in. A team which plays in a hitter friendly park is going to have a higher chance of leading in home runs and a lower chance of leading in home runs allowed. Since 1960, only one team has led the American League in both measures: the 1994 Cleveland Indians. In the same time span five teams have led the National League in both, most recently the 2001 San Francisco Giants. I can’t think of an obvious reason why an NL team would be more likely to lead both so I’m going to chalk this up to chance for now (if you can think of any good reasons feel free to share them in the comments). The chart below contains all team 19 teams from the Lahman database who led their league in both home runs and home runs allowed.
Teams who Led the AL or NL in HR and HRA
| Year | League | Team | Home Runs | HR Rank | Home Runs Allowed | HRA Rank | Home Run Differential |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1880 | NL | Boston Red Stockings | 20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 18 |
| 1886 | NL | Detroit Wolverines | 53 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 33 |
| 1892 | NL | Philadelphia Phillies | 50 | 1 | 24 | 1 | 26 |
| 1903 | NL | Pittsburgh Pirates | 34 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 25 |
| 1906 | AL | Philadelphia Athletics | 32 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 23 |
| 1911 | AL | Philadelphia Athletics | 35 | 1 | 17 | 1 | 18 |
| 1914 | NL | Philadelphia Phillies | 62 | 1 | 26 | 1 | 36 |
| 1938 | AL | New York Yankees | 174 | 1 | 85 | 1 | 89 |
| 1946 | AL | New York Yankees | 136 | 1 | 66 | 1 | 70 |
| 1951 | AL | Cleveland Indians | 140 | 1 | 86 | 1 | 54 |
| 1953 | AL | Cleveland Indians | 160 | 1 | 92 | 1 | 68 |
| 1957 | NL | Milwaukee Brewers | 199 | 1 | 124 | 1 | 75 |
| 1959 | NL | Milwaukee Brewers | 177 | 1 | 128 | 1 | 49 |
| 1975 | NL | Pittsburgh Pirates | 138 | 1 | 79 | 1 | 59 |
| 1988 | NL | New York Mets | 152 | 1 | 78 | 1 | 74 |
| 1993 | NL | Atlanta Braves | 169 | 1 | 101 | 1 | 68 |
| 1994 | AL | Cleveland Indians | 167 | 1 | 94 | 1 | 73 |
| 1994 | NL | Atlanta Braves | 137 | 1 | 76 | 1 | 61 |
| 2001 | NL | San Francisco Giants | 235 | 1 | 145 | 1 | 90 |
I started this article wondering if the Mets had a chance to do something special this year. The numbers I’ve looked at so far have served two purposes–they have made it seem way more special for a team to lead the league in both home run measures and they have made me significantly more pessimistic that the 2016 Mets have a legitimate shot at doing so. What they haven’t done is give me an estimate of just how possible it is.
For that I turned to PECOTA, BP’s projection system. PECOTA does not do its own estimates of how likely a team is to lead the league in a particular stat but it does provide estimates (in this case from 5/8/16) for home runs, plate appearances, home runs allowed and total batters faced over the rest of the season. I decided to write a very simple simulator, one which takes the projected plate appearances for each team, gives each of those plate appearance that team’s projected chance of hitting (or allowing) a home run and adds each team’s year to date home runs to those totals. I simulated 100,000 seasons for each team (both batting and pitching), keeping track of how often they led the league in each home run measure. While we’ve established that these are not independent PECOTA takes into account things like the DH and park factors, so I believe that a team’s chance of leading the league in both measures is accurately stated by multiplying their probability of leading in each of the two measures.
Results of 100,000 simulations based on ROS PECOTA projections
| Team | Led in HR | % Led in HR | Led in HRA | % Led in HRA | Probability of Leading Both |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 89018 | 89.02% | 488 | 0.49% | 0.434% |
| New York Mets | 761 | 0.76% | 24326 | 24.33% | 0.185% |
| Chicago Cubs | 79 | 0.08% | 16151 | 16.15% | 0.013% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 6297 | 6.30% | 83 | 0.08% | 0.005% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 398 | 0.40% | 265 | 0.27% | 0.001% |
| Houston Astros | 4681 | 4.68% | 2 | 0.00% | 0.000% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 1 | 0.00% | 5054 | 5.05% | 0.000% |
| Seattle Mariners | 1 | 0.00% | 593 | 0.59% | 0.000% |
| Colorado Rockies | 9 | 0.01% | 2 | 0.00% | 0.000% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 38 | 0.04% | † | 0.00% | 0.000% |
| New York Yankees | 9 | 0.01% | † | 0.00% | 0.000% |
| Miami Marlins | † | 0.00% | 23743 | 23.74% | 0.000% |
| Chicago White Sox | † | 0.00% | 8892 | 8.89% | 0.000% |
| Washington Nationals | † | 0.00% | 7587 | 7.59% | 0.000% |
| San Francisco Giants | † | 0.00% | 6932 | 6.93% | 0.000% |
| Atlanta Braves | † | 0.00% | 3878 | 3.88% | 0.000% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | † | 0.00% | 2738 | 2.74% | 0.000% |
| Kansas City Royals | † | 0.00% | 2057 | 2.06% | 0.000% |
| Detroit Tigers | † | 0.00% | 1377 | 1.38% | 0.000% |
| Boston Red Sox | † | 0.00% | 1121 | 1.12% | 0.000% |
| Oakland Athletics | † | 0.00% | 519 | 0.52% | 0.000% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | † | 0.00% | 482 | 0.48% | 0.000% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | † | 0.00% | 282 | 0.28% | 0.000% |
| Cleveland Indians | † | 0.00% | 256 | 0.26% | 0.000% |
| San Diego Padres | † | 0.00% | 131 | 0.13% | 0.000% |
| Minnesota Twins | † | 0.00% | 112 | 0.11% | 0.000% |
| Texas Rangers | † | 0.00% | 8 | 0.01% | 0.000% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | † | 0.00% | 1 | 0.00% | 0.000% |
| Anaheim Angels | † | 0.00% | 1 | 0.00% | 0.000% |
| Cincinnati Reds | † | 0.00% | † | 0.00% | 0.000% |
The Mets, being a National League team with strong pitching, have a much better chance of leading the league in home runs allowed than they do in home runs hit. That being said, the lineup is filled with power hitters (although it took a hit losing Travis d’Arnaud to his shoulder injury) and stranger things have happened. In a world where Bartolo Colon can hit a homer at Petco Park I’m not going to totally write off the Mets’ 0.2 percent chance of doing something which hasn’t been done in over a century. If extreme long shots aren’t your thing you can take solace in knowing that the 2016 Mets have a much better chance (about 15 percent) of joining the 1988 squad in becoming the home run kings of the National League.
Thanks to Rob McQuown of Baseball Prospectus for research assistance and for providing PECOTA projections. Thanks to Coral Marshall (@Coral_Rae) and Jared Cross (@steamerpro) for invaluable input and discussions about the topic.
You can find the R code which I used to prepare the Lahman data for the above retrospective analysis here.
You can find the Python simulator which I used to generate the probabilistic predictions here.
Photo Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports