Game Recap April 24: Decision Time on Matt Harvey

Executive Summary

Matt Harvey pitched… poorly. His seasonal ERA is now 6.08. Sound the alarms. Naionals 7, Mets. 4.

Discussion and Analysis

After Harvey’s start on Friday the 13th, many pixels were posted posing the question: What’s wrong? Last night’s performance — 5 innings, 8 hits, 5 runs, 3 HR, 2 BB and merely one strikeout — provided no answers. Indeed, Harvey was so bad it leaves the Mets little choice but to demote or disable last year’s ace. Either way, Harvey needs to find his 2015 fastball and command in a place where his reeducation won’t affect the Mets in the standings.

That said, Mets fans should not lose hope. Since 1988, Harvey is one of just 12 pitchers to post a FIP between 2.00 and 3.00 over his first three seasons (30 games min.), joining fellow Mets Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard.

Aside from Mark Prior, MLB’s famous cautionary pitch-count tale, those pitchers’ FIPs in their fourth-through-sixth seasons were acceptable, if not brilliant:

Right now, the Mets would love a ~3.50 FIP from Harvey, as last night’s stinker caused his FIP to rise from 3.62 — the 2016 version of Bartolo Colon — to 4.37, like this year’s version of Ubaldo Jimenez. Baseball Twitter has praised Dan Warthen for his eponymous slider. It’s time to see if the Mets’ star pitching coach has “fixing a broken pitcher” in his tool chest.

The contrast between Harvey and Stephen Strasburg was stark. Strasburg struck out 11 to Harvey’s one. The Nationals’ starter began his night by striking out six over three perfect innings. It looked like Curtis Granderson would have the Mets’ first hit, a grounder up the middle in the fourth inning, but Washington shortstop Danny Espinosa was perfectly shifted into position to get Granderson by a step. Instead, the next Mets batter, Asdrubal Cabrera, launched a dinger to right for the first hit of the game.

Yoenis Cespedes added to the Asdrubal highlights (the shortstop made a slick barehanded play to save Harvey’s bacon in the fifth) with two hits including a double off Strasburg, plus a diving catch in center field that made Juan Lagares jealous. Ty Kelly’s major-league debut was not a highlight. It almost featured a golden sombrero. Instead, Kelly’s complete Baseball-Reference page reads 0-for-4 with three Ks.

The normally-reliable Mets bullpen was the opposite of spectacular. Antonio Bastardo gave up Ben Revere’s annual home run, while Jim Henderson threw a pipe shot to Wilson Ramos, who parked the fastball in the visitors’ bullpen. The relievers’ failure to post zeroes made Neil Walker’s ninth-inning two-run homer against Shawn Kelley — the first runs the Nats setup man allowed all season — into a mere footnote.

Contemporaneous Thoughts

You can't make a value judgment on the quality of a game based only on the number of strikes an umpire calls. Have we forgotten Eric Gregg?

— Scott D. Simon (@scottdsimon) May 25, 2016

GKR-isms

“It’s almost like [Harvey’s] developed a little bit of a cutter.” — Gary

“The sharpness of his breaking pitches is still not there for me, yet.” — Ron

“The more strikes the umpire calls, the better game it is.” — Gary, not wanting to miss his dinner reservation

Coda

On a night when Harvey’s immediate future was placed in significant doubt, the Mets will take no comfort in his continued dominance of Bryce Harper, who is now 1-for-24 in the meaningless split.

Steven Matz faces Tanner Roark today in a getaway day matinee.

Photo credit: Tommy Gilligan – USA Today Sports